OverDrive - Johnson on Matthews' scoring issues, the need of a spark and the Panthers' win against the Maple Leafs

Episode Date: March 14, 2025

TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' defeat against the Panthers, Auston Matthews searching for production and the declined goal scoring on the ice and more.

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Joining us during the Maple Toyota Hotline, here's our TSN hockey analyst, Mike Johnson. Johnny was in the building last night. How would you describe that game after it was over in terms of how close the Leafs actually were to possibly winning it last night? It was a good game, Avery. Like, the Leafs played hard. They were engaged. They were physical. I think you saw when the game was played on Florida's terms, Florida's better than Toronto at like cycling, mucking, possessing, you know, that physical, grindy kind of forechecking hockey they played. And they were good at it and they played, Florida did a good job of it. And when they did, Toronto at times were hemmed in their own end a little bit and they didn't have

the puck as much as they want, even if they weren't giving up a lot of chances. And then Toronto, when they had a chance to make some plays off the rush, found a little bit more open ice where they could get it off the wall. They showed well, like they made nice plays they did they did good things and and that was sort of a give-and-take of the game but the one thing you mentioned like I remember thinking when Max told me score to make it 3-2 I remember thinking this will be not a test but maybe an example of the comfort in Florida like the poise and the ability to close out games because Toronto's playing hard they were pressing they were they were skating hard and could even though they're a

little bit depleted Florida just managed the game and make enough plays and get the fuck over the blue line all the time. And they did. I think I left that game more complimentary to Florida than I would be critical of Toronto. Yeah, I would agree with you on the macro level that I think that that's probably the way you should leave that game is that Florida, like they're champions for a reason. And they proved it in a difficult situation

against an opponent that's trying to track them down. They just kept pushing them away, pushing them away, pushing them away. You know, on a micro level, because I don't know, like Sam Bennett had two goals last night and they were very Sam Benedy goals. Like right in front of the net, goes to a tough area, no one touches him and he finds a way

to contribute to his team. But outside of that, I don't know who like on Florida, I'd say was phenomenal last night one way or the other. Yet with the Leafs and that probably speaks to their depth in the way that they're built with the Leafs for nine years now, it's been okay, these four guys or these three guys have got to be greater than the other guys, you know, on the other side. And I don't think that was the case. Like I don't think, like Matthews and Marner in particular,

it was a big opportunity for them last night. And I just, I didn't see enough out of them that would suggest they kind of relished the opportunity to beat Florida at home, chasing the number one seed. It looked like a playoff performance from those two guys in a big game. Yeah so I mean first of all both of Bennett's goals were on the power play right so it's not like he was running around five on five taking advantage of guys. He scored power play goals in front of the

net you know on breakdowns in coverage and it was less about him being rugged Sam Bennett than it was a about him being rugged Sam Bennett than it was a guy in front of the net doing what guys in front of the net do. Now, the part about Matthews and Marner, I always have to say, they were going up a lot against Barkov. We know Barkov is as good as it gets doing that,

shutting down opponents, making life difficult, and he did a good job of that. But you're right right at five on five They didn't generate a lot and and the reality is from the strong made beliefs, you know When those get those guys are so integral to their success that they have to like if they're they're rarely going to win against really good teams unless they're good players are good and by some means productive and they weren't that last night so in that sense I get the sort of like that was felt like a

playoff game in the sense that the Leafs played hard of course and they were engaged of course but they couldn't quite find a way to get it done. And for, you know, and the top guys, they had all those power plays, where they have four or five power plays in the game, and they couldn't find a way to get a tying goal, and you know, they didn't get on the board when some of the other top guys did.

And yeah, so that's a problem. But I do think it was a good game. Like I don't know if Toronto would walk away being flustered, other than that they lost, knowing that that's, you know, because they didn't give up much either. Like as much as Florida played well, they didn't have a boatload of great chances either. And so, you know, it goes both ways. But the other thing that you sort of referenced, and I think it's a conversation sort of worth having and we sort of danced around it, is that as excellent as Austin Matthews is,

and he's on pace for what, 40 goals and 90 points or something like that, right? I think it's lower than that now. Yeah, it's a lot lower than that now. I mean, when you consider, like, if he had played 82 games. Yeah, okay. If he had played every game,

he'd be scoring like every other game, sort of thing. And that's a great year, but it's not the best in the league year. And he sort of needs to be closer to be the best in the league, because that's the way the team is built, to have him be that guy. And he just hasn't been.

Was it one five-on-five goal? He's the greatest five-on-five goal scorer of this generation. Yep goal score of this generation yeah by far unquestionably yeah by a mile to be derived got one five on five ball in 15 games 16 yeah right one empty netter and one power play that's just absurd and that's not just bad luck and that's not just the rub of the green like that's something going on there where it's it's Gone that cold and he if he's capable and I don't know if he's capable. I don't know if he's healthy He's not talking to those. I thought you know, he doesn't talk about being injured doesn't mention it as an excuse ever He's not laying it out there and I respect that

but when you see a guy who's gonna go from 70 goals to that but when you see a guy who's gonna go from 70 goals to 35 you know you're gonna take a half goal a game almost for the year on the team off of his production alone I don't know if they beat Florida in a playoff series of Austin Matthews is a 30 goal scorer they need him to be something closer to a 50 60 goal scorer to have a chance to be the team that is probably top to bottom deeper and better than Toronto they need their stars to be the difference makers. And it's, I watch Austin play, he's doing a lot of good stuff,

he gets chances, he just doesn't, just doesn't finish the same way, all right? Listen, in my research for last night's game, Hayes, this is what I dug through, okay? Last year, he led the league in goals, right? His expected goals, I'm not gonna go through the numbers, but he was first in the league and expected goals. His actual goals, also first in the league were 50% greater than his expected goals. And that would make sense,

right? He's a great shooter. He would outperform his expected goals. This year, once again, his expected goals are almost the exact same number, exact same as last year, first in the league or second or third, but for the first time in his career he is underperforming by a considerable amount, by like a third his expected goals. He's never not scored more than the models would suggest he should until this year. Now why would that be? That's the question I think we sort of need to find an answer to. Is it bad luck? Is it goaltenders improving? Is it teams figuring out how to defend them? Or is it a lack of health?

Because he didn't forget how to shoot this summer, right? So this is, in a nutshell, he's not playing bad. He's still getting around the front of the net. He's just not scoring the way he once did and it's been a year-long thing and I chalk it up to I don't believe he's quite healthy and he won't admit it, he won't acknowledge it and I respect that but if he's not going to get healthy that's going to be a problem. You're right Johnny and just a quick follow-up on that do you put a lot of stock in in shooting percentage? Because that you know, I'm looking at it. Well, I mean the years that he's kind of had, you know

We'll call them down years and a 40 gold is a down year But context is important here The shooting percentage is a lot lower than it was in years where he got 69 and when he got 60, right? He was 17 percent. He was 18 percent in the years where he was in the 40 range, it's 12%. This year it's 11 something. So you know, there is, you're right, there is a, I don't think there's a simple answer to it. It's just like, oh, the guy's got a sore arm or whatever.

Like to me, there's a lot of different factors. You guys watch him, we took, we reference it in the 4 o'clock hour. He puts himself in a really good spot to score yesterday, and he doesn't score. That was just those plays last year and previous years, those are just automatic goals. They feel like anyways, that's how I feel, but they're just not.

And that's where you've got to put your finger on. Is it a lack of confidence? Is it tied into an injury? Is it a bunch of things that factored into kind of 11.7% shooting percentage? But he's generating chances. That's the thing. He could have got a couple goals last night. He was around it, but it just didn't go in for him. No, that's all right. It's all correct, Noodle. Right. But he, and I'm not even faulting him,

of course he's trying his best, but like, he's not scoring, right? Like, he's converting at a pace, I think his actual goals for 60 per minute play, he's like 65th in the league. He can't be the 65th best finisher in the league for the Leafs to go where they wanna go. It just can't happen. No, it can't happen. That's his burden.

That's the way the team is built. That's his responsibility because of who he is and what he's done and salary gets paid and all of it. But the only other thought I have Hayes about this is that like, you know, I may be healthy, I just can't believe it's dropped this much without there being something else going on. But if it was as something as simple as like whatever his back is bothering him If the team knew that he could get healthy by missing four weeks

That I think they would have sat him out four weeks. Yes. Yes And he and he did miss whatever whatever he missed like two or three weeks Previously, you must be going through something that they know won't get better with rest Previously, he must be going through something that they know won't get better with rest Otherwise, I would rather if I'm Toronto finish second or third and have a hundred percent 70 goals for an awesome after the first round then finish first or second and have the 37 goals for me All day first round. It's not even our chances to win a Stanley Cup It can only work with the first guy and not the second guy but they would know that as well as I would and the fact that

they're not sitting about he's playing every game he's even practicing and he rarely misses practices and stuff like that tells me whatever if there is something going on there and it just feels like they're kind of the number suggest there's got to be something going on there it's not something that would resolve itself with just rest. Otherwise, you'd be criminal not to just rest him. Well, yeah, exactly, Johnny.

I mean, like, look, that's the facts, right? He missed most of the month of November, took the trip to Munich to get whatever treatment he needed to get. He did speak about acquiring another injury, a different injury at the Four Nations, right? So we know those two things to be true It's all we really know for a fact, right?

But but my question you Johnny and your vast experience, you know at ice level as a player as an analyst. I mean You know, what could like what could that possibly be? That would be kind of taking the pop off his shot because he doesn't have the wow factor to the shot He's not scoring goals as a result result I mean we're completely speculating here but like can you like it doesn't make sense to me you know he doesn't look hobbled right like that's the weird thing he doesn't but he also doesn't look like he's fractionally less explosive I think you know like he was he's never been you know Connor McDavid but when he stops and starts and bumps like a half the puck,

he gets separation and he's not getting quite as much separation. So again, totally speculating. He might be a hundred percent healthy. I, it just, and if he is, and that's unfortunate for the least cause you know, they need this is they need better than that guy. He's healthy, but it's got to do to me, it's got probably a core situation, which could be back, stomach, hip, like, you know, hernia, that kind of stuff, or a wrist, you know, which would affect your shooting ability as well. Something like that could linger a long time, something like that you could play through, but maybe it might take

surgery or four months off to rehabilitate., but you know, we're completely guessing but that's that's the sort of stuff that you know Might have him skating like I looked at the edge stats the ideal of the Jersey trappers he's slightly slower than last year Right. Mm-hmm. His 22 mile an hour bursts are slightly fewer is 20 mile an hour burst, as far as a percentile in the league is slightly lower. Like he's not, it doesn't look bad, but it's just actually not quite as good.

And so I, you know, I don't know what that would be, but the numbers suggest something, even though the Leafs and him are not, are not. No, and they're not going to and that's, you know. And that's good, they shouldn't, I get it. But the production leaves you wondering, what the heck? Cause this guy has never sort of gone through this kind of. No, it's the worst stretch of his career.

I mean, there's no other way to put it. Like he, you mentioned it, he's got one five on five goal in his last 16 games. He has five primary points in that stretch like that's that's third line production That's what that's what that is. Well, he's got 18 points overall in yes in games So he's a point a game guy got a good credit power play a lot of secondary assists and all that kind of stuff But he's the highest paid player in the league. Yeah, he's the captain of the team He's in his prime and this is a big stretch run for him and for the whole team

I mean, these are just facts and he just and it's not just about you know, like he's fumbling pucks He was fumbling pucks last night six on five I thought when he broke through the D last night was in alone I just looked a little bit uncomfortable little jittery and he almost shot it into the fifth row And yeah, and it's like that like, that's not who this guy is. That's what's amazing because he has been, it just has not, it has been crazy to watch him play hockey for eight and a half years.

Like that's the way to put it. Like to watch him play for eight and a half years. It's so high. It's so high and he's not there and it doesn't feel like he's close and That's what is concerning because they played 65 games they know what the problem is and if they know this is what they're gonna get then that's putting pressure on everyone else and You know if it is that he's banged up in some way

It's not just about his shot and I don't have the stats to back this up But it's also like is he is he going to the front of the net with the same pace? Reckless abandoned? Is he gonna is he stopping a cycle with his body? Is he will? I don't see that necessarily like I don't see a guy who looks like he's he's got you know he just couldn't care less you want to come hit me come hit me like he just feels like he's on guard out there to an extent and that's a that's very difficult to have success when you're doing it. I mean it's a very physical sport. It's only gonna rev up in a month Johnny. Like it's gonna get even harder a

month from now. The whole thing is challenging. Challenging for the Leafs, challenging for him. He wants to be better and you know obviously like we cover the Leafs every day and I dive in the numbers every day. And, you know, the Leafs are not nearly as good a five-on-five team this year as they have been in years past. Some of that is system-based,

they're trying to limit chances they don't create as much and all that. But like a whole bunch of the decrease in the Leafs' success in so many areas can almost be directly tied to Austin Matthews. Like he was one of the best five on five players. When he's on the ice, the least control 57% of the shots and get 58% of the goals.

And like that's tilted the ice. This year, whatever, he's 50, he's barely 50. You know, plus minus whatever it is, last year plus 31, the year before plus 31. This year he's plus two, which is a true reflection of how his game has been at five on five. He's been fine, but he hasn't been dominant. And yet here they are, even though they lost last night, they're four points out of first with a game in hand, knowing that, or maybe figures crossed that that He gets out of his funk and whether it's health or confidence or whatever

Because if he does they're that much better because they're pretty darn good anyway, I think they're really pretty good regardless but he just yeah, it's just it's it's part of the story because huge he's that player he's the highest paid player in the league and he scored seventy last year sixty nine and it's not quite happening at that pace uh... so far so it's

it's a tricky dynamic yeah it's the number one topic in my opinion in the city right now like as much as you're tracking who they're gonna play in the first round and carlos here now and lot as much as you're tracking who they're gonna play in the first round and Carlos here now and Lotton's here, you get through the deadline, it's Matthews. I mean, the first time we saw him play, the guy scored four goals. Like he's just, he's been a lightning rod since he arrived. And we're also getting closer to go time here

when it was always going to be the platform that was gonna matter. And, you know, ultimately for Austin and everyone else, all of this can be completely irrelevant if you do flip the switch and you have a great playoffs and you win big games and you have clutch moments. That's all that was ever going to matter in terms of defining the 24, 25 season.

But you're running out of time to make it feel as if you're getting there and that you're going to pop. And we were saying prior to coming on, are you coming on, John? It's the same thing at Edmonton like they were up to one last night they blow a lead in the third they're losing a lot of game now LA won last night LA's ahead of them like they're going in LA game one you know if the playoffs started tonight they're starting on the road and and LA

got three losses at home the whole year right the whole year they got also that series which you thought Evans did a roll right through, not so sure anymore. I'm curious about this though, dude maybe you have a thought because you've been around some really good players, goal tenders as well, all same caliber guys.

Like, you wonder if a player as accomplished as Austin Matthews, and goes through a rough stretch, for whatever reason, health or otherwise, you know, if confidence can be shaken. Like I for whatever reason, health or otherwise, if confidence can be shaken. I think they're human, probably more resilient than a regular player, but I wonder if confidence is a bit of a thing too. You talk about bobbling the pucks and missing the one little half break there in the second

period. Would you think that might be a thing? Have you seen that in whether Iggy or Bobby Lou or whatever know those kind of players. Yes a hundred percent like they're human This is the other thing too. We can point to an injury and all of that, but you can also point to confidence I look at guys and you know, I remember playing with Jerome and Jerome was a mean Freak of nature. I always joke because he was He hadn't scored in maybe 10 games or 8 games and it would be on the front cover of the paper, you know, what's wrong with Iggy, what's

going on with Iggy, should we trade Iggy, all of this type of stuff. And he'd come in in the morning and say, you know, how's it going? He's like, oh, it's all right. And then he would say, God, I can't wait to score. He goes, you know, it comes in bunches. Like he goes, I can't, it's's gonna be so fun when we get going like he would treat it in another way But you could tell like it's obviously on his mind. You know Brett Hall I played with some elite scorers and guys who could you know were difference makers Chris pronger like they all go through it Grant fear

Roberto Luongo they all go through stretches where they're not playing well I remember a time where Roberto Luongo had a tough stretch and I said, do you want to go out early for practice tomorrow morning? And he said, no, I'm going to do it by myself. No goalie coach, no nothing. I went and watched from underneath the stands. He was out there for an hour working on his game. Like not in, and it wasn't the Kyle Lowry, hey, I need the cameras after a game and that.

It was like way before practice, working for an hour and he worked his way out of it. Like you know confidence is a fragile thing for an average player. For star players they do go through it. It's just it looks different and it's under a microscope. So I agree Johnny, I think there is a chance that confidence does factor into whatever else is going on with the Mcdavids with the you know Matthews that type of stuff yeah I could see that I mean you know Matthews is feeling it like his his whole identity of course he does he cares it's not an effort thing like that's the

thing about the Leafs lot they I thought they showed up to play like it's not an effort thing this isn't like anything along those sorts. It's just it's perplexing. It's got to be sorted out. It's very concerning. And you know, his whole identity, his whole career, Matthews has been nobody can score like me. And now for the better part of two months, a lot of guys score like him or better than him. Like he scored the one goal he scored five on five or better than him. A lot better than him. Like he scored, the one goal he scored five on five was that goal in Vegas and that made it five one.

He fist pumped that goal. Yeah. Remember that? That was like, they're getting pumped. He fist pumped that. And I made a note of that. I'm sure you were there. You saw it Johnny.

I said it on the broadcast. Okay. That's not a normal reaction for down five nothing. Exactly. Right. That's the guy is like i need one i need one here and then in the game but i mean from the me

yes in sports sense so you know it's you know he's thinking about it he's he's not to be but you know that's he still got seventeen games left in the regular season same thing with mcdavid like mcdavid's guy that's always best player in the world are ross lock had lindsey that's not gonna be the case for him this year

is not is not gonna happen so now that i would be a crazy jerry's is there any chance he could win the art ross now i don't want to explain twenty points back now manny and i waited the way that mckinnon's planned too i mean he's on another planet right now that's what's crazy is mckinnon's doing it again you know like and the guys have cycles you have up your you know i'm i'm betting that austin matthews will return to his status as the best goal scorer in the world i'd be willing to put a lot of money on that

that that happens but it seems more likely it's going to start next year. Like I don't know if it's going to happen between now and the end of this year. So McDavid is 18 points back at McKinnon. Yeah that's too far gone. He's not catching him man. But man oh man like they're like if they're like that's the scary part that we talk about how special these players are. Like there's a slight doubt in the in the end going out of consider it could be a consider it like you like that that's the crazy thing about it because you're right it's like it's over it doesn't but you're like i could see this guy he has twelve points and three games they use dry saddle probably stay

out of the does that yeah i said all pick up points in the power play and he's not going to slow down i mean that's true anyway all right Johnny we'll see what happens tomorrow night battle of Ontario it's gonna be a fun one listen this could be a first round matchup yes it quite quite you know it's that all the odds are but whether a Toronto wins and and Ottawa seventh or talk of like what is on a lot four behind Tampa yeah they're still in there they're in reach of moving up into the three seed absolutely out of the question and they're rolling right now. So yeah, it should be a fun one Yeah, we'll see what happens. But it was a good game last night

Like that was there was they thought about playoff game and like they brought they brought the energy they brought the physicality They were close, but you know, maybe maybe what matters most bit of deja vu in the end Thank you, Johnny. I'll get on that. It's been a deja vu in the end. Thank you, Johnny. We'll do it again soon. All right, boys. Have a good weekend.

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