OverDrive - Johnson on the Maple Leafs' cold start, Matthews' decreased production and the Atlantic Division outlook

Episode Date: October 22, 2025

TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson joined OverDrive to discuss the Maple Leafs' inconsistent start to the season, Anthony Stolarz's comments, the first line issues, Auston Matthews' declined production, the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Lightning playoff opportunity and more.

that's annoying what you're a muffler you don't hear it oh i don't even notice it i usually drown it out with the radio how's this oh yeah way better save on insurance by switching to bellair direct and use the money to fix your car bellair direct insurance simplified conditions apply this guy he wheels around the ice doing interviews man he's changing the game we love it here's mike johnson our tsn hockey analyst there he is no bucket can you ever think about wearing a helmet a hat what was the plan there with with austin no it didn't cross my mind for a second put a helmet on i was like you know i got a track suit on although you notice tsn monogram track suit custom yeah i might add but no never a helmet and you know baseball cap maybe but uh nah it was neat i mean

austin we don't see him sort of let his guard down at all right like when he does media there's a lot of people there and he knows everything he says going to be dissected every which way. So it was, I was impressed that he was so comfortable. Like, he just was kind of having a good time and chatting and smiling and laughing and telling stories. And I think people may see him slightly more human and less, less robotic. Like, he was charismatic and he was funny. And he was, I'm like, oh, you're like, that's a guy I want to go have a beer with, not, you know, what maybe we see in the regular media. So, yeah, no bucket never. Um, we should have done one hard laugh and gone with a little race with each other. That would have been interesting. Yeah. If you had a

bucket on, Johnny, they would have pulled that from the dock and said, we can't air this, like a big, awkward if we had a bubble cage or anything, due to half cage, some kind of old school CCM helmet with a half cage, they would have pulled it.

So we can't air it. Listen, I played 12 years. I never wore a visor once. I'm not putting one on to do an interview with Matthews. And if they were to said, like, you know, rink rules, you know, hockey Canada rules, you were a helmet on, like, interview's not happening. I will not do this with a hell of a gun.

That is a non-starter for the whole thing. That would have changed everything, dude. Andy Reed with a fish bowl out there. Honestly. If you were wearing that, he could have said, I guarantee a Stanley Cup, I guarantee I score a thousand goal, and no one would care. No one would even, it wouldn't even be, like, it would go viral. It was like, look at this idiot.

Trying to do an interview. who's bogging up his face mask talking to Austin. So anyways, I appreciate it because it was something different for him. It took up half an hour of his day, so that's not something he likes to do. So we're appreciative of it. You think he would have accepted the request after last night the way things have been going for this team or what? I was disappointed that he didn't score a hat trick last day.

I'm like, I did it on two Monday, I guess. I'm like, oh, I hope he has a good game. I hope he just lights one up. It wasn't to be against Jersey last night. It wasn't a good game for him. It wasn't a great game for the team. And a lot of the questions, almost growing into concerns for the Toronto Maple Leafs, were sort of highlighted yesterday in that game, in that primarily they want to be a big,

griny team. Oh, and I had a little interaction with it's like, I don't think, I think they know what they want to do. I don't think they know if they can do it because they have it. I don't know if they can be the sort of dump it in, forecheck, turn it over, possess it, where you're down, ground and pound kind of team. I get the philosophy. I get the playoff philosophy.

But I haven't really seen any stretch of time in a game other than what, the second game against Detroit where they really sort of control play. Other than that game, they haven't really had long stretches of play. You're like, that's a dominant team. That's a really good team. You've seen blips, minutes, you've seen talent and skill. but I think if they're trying to reinvent sort of how they approach playing, they haven't got it,

and I don't know if they have the personnel to really execute it as well as they want to for 82 games. So, Johnny, we seem to have this conversation, and Hayes always has the classic line. No need to get concerned because they're going to end up with 100 plus points, and we have this conversation every year, and it ultimately comes true. Are you comfortable in saying that right now,

where it's like there's no need to panic here, These guys are comfortably going to have 100 points, and this is just a blip on the radar. Panic and concern are two different things. Panic, no. I don't think there's a need to panic yet. But I think concern, sure. And the other part about if, if you look at what the Leafs did last year in winning the division title, what allowed them to win so many games primarily, right?

One, stole ours. League best state percentage, great goaltending. He hasn't been as good, and Joseph Wall hasn't been available. So their goaltending hasn't been quite as good. One of the winning points for them, not quite as good. The other one was their superstar players won a lot of close games, right? Two, two, and the third, their top guys would do something special. Well, one top guy is gone.

That's reality. He's not here anymore. And their other big top guy in Austin hasn't gotten off to a really rambunctious start offensively playing. So that element is no longer quite what it was last year. And then you think their power play was also pretty good. Got them some timely goals? Power play is not so good this year either. And we can get down to the defensive coverage and stuff around the net.

But I just look at the way they won close games. Because they basically played games 50-50 last year and said, our top players are going to win it. And more often than not, their top players, including their goal, they did in fact win it. I don't, those things are not happening as frequently as well this year. And that is a concern, not panic-inducing, but a concern. So, Johnny, we started the show we were talking about Stolars' comments on Saturday compared to his comments last night.

Where were you at with his original comments and where were you at with his assessment, which we all, I think, the three of us agreed. His assessment was, I think, not disingenuous, but it wasn't bang on last night. Put it that way. It was teammates speak last night is what it was. Exactly. Yeah, so what he said, I don't have a problem with. The fact that he said it publicly, not ideal. But, you know, whether they say it in person in the dress room, which they do, and they did,

or whether he said it in public, it just makes it a little bit more volatile being in public. But the message remains, and if you have a good, healthy, strong team, and if Willie is, you know, as good at shaking things off as we know he is, I don't think it lingers for a long time. But what it does do, it makes the next little while difficult for all parties involved, especially Solars, because you call out guys, the guy who's, what, second league in scoring, you call him out for not being good enough defensively. Fair enough, it wasn't a great play in overtime.

Guess who's got to be real good for the next two weeks? Like, don't give anyone a chance. Not that Willie would go down this road, but, like, who are you calling guys out when your, say, percentage is 880? like you know clean up your own match before you worry about everybody else's that sort of sentiment so there is that and then the idea that he was kind of brutally honest almost unusually honest once now can he be unusually honest always well obviously not because last night they didn't play great and he's praising the work and the boxouts and the effort they didn't he's trying to probably make amends for the you know the losing his cool

on Saturday and I understand it and I get it but it just makes it so much. his existence for the next couple weeks a little stickier than he wants it to be. Yeah, the comments just, those concern me even more than the original ones. I love that there was someone raw, someone genuine, someone human in that

room that was willing to say something. Whether you like the content, whether you like the timing, it was different. And then he obviously got a slap on the wrist clearly, because to suggest that it was great last night is just an absurd analysis.

They were terrible. They were awful last night. And it just, yeah, it makes it sticky. And it does put a focus on him because Joseph Wall's not around. Wall can't step in and play three great games and just roll with it because he's not around. He's not going to happen. So it's on Stolars. And I wanted to get back to Matthews here for a moment because I can see where this is going.

I'm curious where it splits because you didn't have a great year last year. And that was injury, new coach, new system. now we're into year two now it's okay no marner trying to find a winger for them again they're trying to play a style that's more playoff conducive but not necessarily conducive to chasing 69 goals so which one is it is it that the the team and the coaching style is affecting him or is it him like when does it get to a point where you look at austin and say you're austin matthews man I don't care who's playing with you on the right side. You've got to be better than

this. Where do you stand on that? I hate to straddle a fence base. It's all those things. It's all those things. And it's not 100% that martyr's not gone, but that doesn't help. It's not 100% they want to be a dump and chase team and they're not moving it very well out of their own end. But that doesn't help.

And it's not 100% that Austin hasn't been good enough. But that is a real, that really doesn't help. But I think at some point, you know, not having the right winger. When you got Matthew Nyes, who everyone sort of acknowledged a pretty good player on his own,

like not every top player in the league plays with two superstars. It doesn't happen that way. We see what Dryssela McDavid-Div do. We see what McKinnon does. We see it Caprizzof does. They produce consistently, regardless of who they're playing with.

They're good players, but they're not superstars. And Austin Matthews and the Leafs can't wait to say, well, we need to go get Adrian Kempay, Alex Tuft, whatever, to round out that. line to make it go. At some point that is the responsibility of the best player on the team

which is Austin Matthews. Now part of the issue is boy they're playing a lot in their own head hazy like they do not exit quickly like it gets dumped in and it gets forechecked and he plays so much down right and he's playing

so much in his own end now again that's partly his responsibility it's one of the guys down there to stop that but he spends 30 40 seconds doing the work in his own end get the pot back. He finally gets it back, and sometimes he looks tired on offense. He doesn't look explosive, and I think some of that's because he's been checking. And the other part about it, and this is a true dynamic. Now, Matthew Nyes is a bull in a china shop. He is not what we'd

call what a transporter. He doesn't skate it up the ice, sort of get the zone, draw a guy, let Austin come late. That's what Mitch did. And I think that's maybe the role for that third guy that they're missing is like who's going to bring the puck up the ice because if austin's down in his own end below the goal line he can also be the guy that's got to get the zone entry drive a deep earn possession start to play and then also somehow be the guy who finishes the play he can't be all those things at once you'd like him to be but that's not his style and that's not really going to work so it's a bit of everything haze but there's no doubt that for Toronto to be good not even great to them to be good this year

Austin has to make that line go it has to be him it can't be an addition it can't be nice and it also can't be William Nylander like Willie can't play everywhere like he's basically playing on the second line

asked with making that go and then bumping to the first line trying to get them going as well because it's so so much of William Nealander to go around so yeah I mean I think Austin knows this but there's a lot of elements to it. And it was almost striking watching them

play Jersey last night. Sheldon Keith's team. And say what you want about Kiefer and their success in the playoffs, not enough, not good. But I bet if you're to ask the players which regular season was, not just more fun, but easier to play. Easier to be successful in?

What system? It was Sheldon's. Like the way they attack up the rush, the way they move, the way they skate, that's what the least were three years ago. And that's where the offense came fast and three years for everybody so i think it's all those things together but when you're the captain and with the change of marner leaving spotlights on him and he knows it and he knows that he's got to be better so johnny the coach said he's tired of looking around for the right winger because he said

probably five of them five different ones last night friday night who are you saying you're going to the captain and saying this has got to work i'm tired of screwing around with this Who are you throwing out with him? I don't even know, oh. Like, did they go number six in Callie Yarncroke? The one guy who hasn't been there. Like, I want it to be Max. Because what Max can do is literally skate fast.

He's a fast skater. And they need speed. They need, like, someone to push tempo with those two guys. And Max can make skilled plays, which you also need. When I watch Max play right now, he's, he's like, very powerful. passive. Direct to the outside, slowing down,

trying to find passes, instead of just skating more confidently where the plays might open up. I think Max is the best guy in this current iteration of the team to do it. He's not doing it now. I'm not saying he's playing well,

but I'm saying his skill set lends itself probably for what they need in this moment. If it's not him, then I don't know, is it Eastern Cowan and you've got to live with growing pains and hope that he continues to get better in the NHL.

One of those two guys, I think will be there on Friday. But again, I don't think you say it's that guy's person, whoever it is. It could be Jeff O'Neill. It's not his responsibility. If it doesn't go great, it's not his fault. It's the other two guys that are going to bear the brunt of the responsibility and the credit if it works or if it doesn't. All right, let me throw out a mini jerry's here on a Wednesday, and all three of us can give a number.

All right. What's your mini jerry, the Florida Panthers? the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Toronto Maple Leafs, all make the playoffs. Oh, goodness, the three-man park. Many juries, I would say 40%? That's pretty good. Yeah, I would say 35%.

All three make the playoffs? All three make the playoffs. All three have to make it. Tampa, Florida, Toronto. They're all making it. As of right now, I'm saying 40%, which is lunacy. I'm 80%.

80? Yes Tampa Bay had six guys on our TSN's top 50 list They didn't forget how to play hockey They had a rough start Same thing Florida knows how to play hockey

Florida will scrape in in a wildcard spot And I think the Leafs are probably going to be in that wildcard spot as well I think that they're going to be a 98 point team That's the way I look at it And keep in mind This is the original like we're talking about a team today Tree has been looking for

there's going to be trades here I think that there's going to be trades early in this league instead of Thanksgiving American Thanksgiving I think we're going to see trades sooner there are teams that are starting to get antsy put it down I still know what the leaves have to get anybody

they have no farm system No prospects no pecs Cowan and Danford That's all they got Cowan and Danford And I think they're going to need those guys to play at some point. My only concern noodles, and of course, all those teams in a vacuum

are good, and you're like, of course they're going to make it. But for all three to make it, you start running the numbers, even if they each have an 80% likelihood, you know, that's 64, that's 40, like, it drops quickly and that's not taking consideration. How good is Montreal? Right. How good is Detroit?

You know, is Buffalo and Boston are not going to just be terrible. Like, they're going to be okay as well. And where I might be really wrong is not that the metro is going to be a hot mess. And it is not so far. I don't think Pittsburgh are what they are, but Washington looks like they are not a fluke. They are legit doing the same

thing. Carolina, we know. Jersey, if healthy, we know. So, like, there's going to be other team, Columbus is going to be tougher. Like, I just don't know if if you're counting on wild card one and maybe wild card two coming from the Atlantic.

I don't know. You make a great point. I don't know. I should probably reassess because it might be four, I don't think it's going to be five from the Metro and three from the Atlantic, I don't think it's going to be five from the Atlantic. It probably should be at the start of the year. I thought it was going to be, but it might be four and four. It might be four and four, realistically.

So, yeah, I haven't heard from Hasey B though, guys. Go ahead, Hayes. I'm just not. I want to hear you guys go. I'm very fascinated. All three. You're down to 60, Nuddles. I'm down to 60.

Where are you at, Hayes? You asked the question. I know, it's a mini juries. I know what he's got. I know you've got a 10-percenter, don't you? I'm feeling very negative about the three of them right now. I've got to be honest. I do.

I'm in the middle. You've got to spit it out. You always say it to people. Spit it out. What's the lowest? Who's had the lowest number so far? I got 35. I'll go 34.

I'm the low. 34%. I'm 34% that all three of them make it. Because I do, I think Montreal, you know, they look very, very good right now. Detroit, I feel like it's going to come back to Earth at some point. They're on a heater right now. Like, good for them. I'm not convinced that Detroit's a playoff team.

But you start crunch on the numbers here. Like, if, yeah, if only four teams are getting in and these three are, then, okay, then it's Montreal. That means Ottawa's out? Like, is that what we're saying? Ottawa is definitely out. Detroit's definitely going to fall off a cliff here. I don't know.

I mean, I look at, to your point, the metro, Carolina and Washington are getting in. I'm pretty sure Jersey if they stay healthy. Although, you know, their goaltending, you never, Jake Allen's been unbelievable to his credit, but Markstrom's already heard, you know, we'll see what happens with their goaltending throughout the year. But if those three are in, yeah, you just start punching the numbers, man.

There may only be four they get it, maybe only three. One or two aberrations. Yes. One Columbus hot run. One Sidney Crosby turned back the clock and like they get 96 somehow. That's right. Just random stuff. The Rangers is just jerking lights it up,

which is in, it's not likely, but if all these things have to not happen for those three teams they get in becomes less than life likely. And the assumption that all those three teams play to 100 points. It doesn't always happen.

They've been good for so long somebody's going to have a stub their toe or maybe worse. Someone's going to have a New York Rangers season. That is what probably ends up happening. I couldn't tell you who it is right now. I don't know. And because, like, Florida is not out of the woods.

Like, those injuries are pretty substantial. They've played so many games. You know, they're a Bob injury or a Bob, bad month or two away from fighting. That's the thing. You're right. Like, if, because you're right, like, an injury can change the whole dynamic. You mentioned Bob gets injured, that's, it looks different, obviously, because that's a stable position for them.

But I'm just talking if all, if they happen to be relatively healthy, and be fine. But the more you talk, I should change my... You can't go down again. I'm staying 60 to what? I'm staying 60%. I still believe, but there is going to be some wacky storylines coming along. Just do it, noodles.

Take it down to 45. Just keep doing it. I have to be consistent, and here's why. I said day one of our show that the Atlantic was going to be an absolute monster this year. Because all eight teams, you can make a case, including Buffalo, who had a terrible start but on paper they still are a better team than we believe well you have to back off that comment jamie there's nothing close to a monster i think it's what i mean is i'm talking they're all eating points off of each other yeah that's that's what i mean to being a monster yeah nobody separates

everybody's in that 90 plus range points as of right now it used to be everyone used to say man toughest division in hockey i don't think the atlantic is that right now but but it all of those teams are capable and this is what I was talking about is it used to be four at the top four at the bottom now there's eight mush together and let's see who separates that's really what I'm saying well and if that's the way it plays out the all year then that is advantage Detroit in Montreal and Ottawa because they they were not the teams that were in that top end right it's been it's been the least for nine years it's been Tampa and it's been Tampa for about nine years Florida, the last four or five, and then Boston for the first seven of the nine years.

Fifteen years. Yeah, 15, exactly, even more than that. And then it was everyone else. And, yeah, we'll see. But the fact that this is a conversation speaks to the start of all these teams, you know, for the most part. So, all right. Yeah, it's been, it's been ugly. Like, it's been choppy for a lot of teams, a lot of teams.

And in the sense, that's good for Toronto because nothing's gotten away from them at all. like Montreal is leaving Detroit's there but the you know 500 and they're right in the thick of it all two wins and they're in second place so in that sense it's good I don't know Buffalo Buffalo they cannot do what they did against Detroit Detroit can they they cannot

I would not I'd rather see it would be so unpleasant yes I'd rather be at Winnipeg at Colorado than Buffalo Buffalo right now I really would I would

too much downside in Buffalo Buffalo because you're so supposed to win both. Exactly. With the three days off, with what's happened, with the pressure, you're supposed to win both. So, I don't know. They better. They better.

We'll see. All right, Johnny. Good stuff. We'll do it again later in the week. All right, boys. I'm good night. There is Mike Johnson. Joining us here on the Maple Toyota Hotline.

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