OverDrive - Johnson on the Panthers' commanding lead, the Oilers' search for a turnaround and the state tax impact

Episode Date: June 10, 2025

TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the Stanley Cup Final, the Panthers' overpowering win against the Oilers, Florida's physical style of play, Sam Bennett's masterful performances, Brad Marchand elevating his game, the state tax becoming a factor and if it is prominent when building a team and more.

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If we're going to check in and you don't got Nexus, I'll see you in the lounge. If you don't have Nexus, I'll see you at the gate. We have no time for any of that. And like, you laugh, there is not one iota of me feeling bad. I'm like, all right, I'll see you when you get over there. I'm not going to wait and go through the regular line. No chance, no how, and yes, never check a bag the whole year. Now, when I go to the world championships, you're gone for weeks at a time.

You check bags obviously, but no, I mean, you you can go for I go for a week in a check bag Yeah, never bring dress shoes because I know that too many too awkward to too much to pack So just wear sneakers all the time with my suits and yeah Coordinate your outfit so you can kind of layer up on the on the shoes, especially but yeah always organized always fast shoes especially but yet always organized always fast past yeah uh... that is not going to happen that causes off-line at airports we had one guy in our crew i won't say his name but the stats guy he lost his as a i'm not saying his name nobody early

early all right early we lost this nexus and like it's like he has to line up like it we get there at six o'clock in the morning whatever he's way in that line over there I feel bad for him he's got to go early the airport early all the time in his own car he's like we're leaving at six I'm like I'm leaving at seven I'll see you there buddy it's a lifestyle choice man it is but you see you hear like couples are going through divorces because of Nexus one of of those got it i don't know what doesn't know like what i'm going to

uh... i don't know fireball i don't know totally uh... well johnny what do you make where we are with this cup final uh... wasn't very efficient the effort that the orders were last night but you know do when you when you review that game if you think back on it is it more about the ordersuler's performance or more about the Panthers

performance because they were incredible last night? I think it's probably both and when it's both Hays it's like that's what happens where the Panthers were really good they are on top of it they were aggressive they made the plays but the story from game three was Edmonton getting roped into playing a game that Florida wins that's physical that chippy that we're gonna prove do you have tough we are we're gonna retaliate and they played right into Florida's hands and I don't think the Oilers need to prove a damn thing. They're in the final. Of course they're tough. Of course they're physical. Of

course they can push you around but it feels like they're almost like a lot of teams getting the in the in the bad habit of trying to show that they are as physical or as tough as the Panthers are and when you get going down that road Florida's is better at it than you. Whether it's, you know, roping you in and then skating away, drawing more penalties, whatever it is. And I'm not even talking about the stuff at the end of the game. The last 10 minutes, that was nothing.

Game was gone. They can do whatever they want. I don't think that's them losing their composure because they weren't trying to keep their composure. But it's more about trying to play that physical game outside the context of whistle to whistle that Florida wins that battle. And then maybe it's the other part about it is that just like the Leafs, right? The Leafs look really good against Florida for game one and game two. Oh, and I were in studio together. How many times, you know, breaking out the pack quickly and

Lee catching them on transition opportunities. Those moments, which are hard to come by against Florida, have been happening less and less and less with each subsequent game. In fact, game three, the Oilers had two five-man rushes the entire game, two. And you're not gonna beat Florida when you play that way. So this four check system that has given everyone around the NHL so much trouble is vexing the oilers and that's why it feels like more than just a loss. It's 2-1 if Edmonton wins on Thursday It's 2-2 they got home ice to the last three games

But given the trends of the series, it feels like it's getting more and more the trends of the series, it feels like it's getting more and more into Florida's wheelhouse of how they want to play and further away from what Edmonton wants to do. Johnny, we always throw a little mini-Jerry at you, so for how bad that performance was, it seems like Edmonton getting it together and responding, it seems like tough, a tough chore. So what is your mini Jerry of Edmonton completely flipping the switch and taking game four? Taking game four. So playing well, I would have said, oh yeah, it's like 75, 80 percent. They're going to play better. They're going to play harder. Winning the game, it feels

it's 50-50. Like really like straight up toss up. Because I think Edmonton can play well, but the goaltender for Florida is playing a bit cleaner, a little bit than the goaltender for Edmonton. I think the penalty killing for Edmonton is a trouble spot. Oh, and it has been all playoff long. But McDavid was quiet, Drysetta was quiet. And when those two guys go quiet, then generally speaking they get loud real quick, shortly after. So I think that they win about a toss-up, that they play better, almost a guarantee. Yeah, I would think they play better, but it doesn't mean that that translates to success. That's the biggest challenge. There's no moral victories if you play better, but you end up losing and you're chasing the

series. If you had to pinpoint one thing Johnny Because it was like it was an atrocious game from the Oilers if there was one thing you could clean up Like just say we need to do this Thursday. Is there anything that pops out for you? Go back and get popped Find a way to not get knocked off it by the four checker and make a pass and get out of your own end. And it seems obvious, almost redundant, because we talk about it all the time,

but it is the greatest challenge in playing the Panthers. And their whole system is predicated on the idea that you can't do that four times in seven games. Well enough to beat us. And they've been proven right, basically, for three straight years. So that's it. And I might, I would even consider

Needles maybe a lineup change on the back end. Troy Stetcher, when he played, was really good. And amazingly enough, when he played with Darnell Nurse, they were really good together. And Darnell Nurse has had a tough series, flat out. Him and Kulak just were not good the first couple games. Last night he played with a whole bunch of different guys that wasn't very good again. They need someone to help him go and Stetcher has been that guy earlier in the playoffs. So I would think about doing that

if you're Edmonton but that's it. If they do that they're very have a really good chance of winning. It's just really hard to do as all the teams that Tampa tried it, Toronto tried it, Carolina tried it. Really good puck moving teams tried it and couldn't do it well enough long enough to win. That's what Eminem's going to have to try to do for game four. Right. Let's say the Cup was the best two out of three in Florida won last night. Who would have won the Con Smythe? on the cons might. Well, that's a good question. It's hard for me. Brad Marsh.

I think it's probably Bennett on the strength of the goals on the strength of the road goals for a team that was the lower seat. Every single series is probably Bennett, even though in my heart and my brain, I know the best forward of the playoffs this year has been Connor McDavid. Like it's flat out. McDavid's got 31 points. Bennett has 16 or not 16, 18 or 19 now.

It doesn't seem like that Mike. I know that. I know but it's also not a finals award. It's a playoff award. Right? So it's not just although it kind of leans that way, and I'm with you, I don't think you'll win it, but probably Bennett, I think Bob given up eight goals

in the first two games, takes him out of the running. So probably Bennett, and what's amazing, not that we go down the gambling lines too much, before the series started, guys, even with Bennett's good run up into the final, AD, he was plus 3,500 to win the Conchmike. even with that it's good run up into the final any u-sport thirty five hundred to win the political and now he did not even know the favoritism of one seventy-five in three games

now it probably goes right apply would be better although i can make a very easy case that in the best for the blasted in mcgavin yet i think that that probably has been the case in the dry subtle of like we've been the the two best you know players consistently throughout it yet i just don't i don't picture scenario where the writers and let you know to begin in the loss of i i think last year felt more dominant and the stats would indicate that as well

yet there's still a lot of games left to be played, but I think the packing order would be Bennett Mershan. I think those are the two guys. I think Brad Mershan has played himself into the Consmite Chatter. All day long. He's been unbelievable the whole playoffs. The Leafs series in particular, you're right, it's about the whole run. He was unreal in that Leafs series.

He was really good in the last one and look at the numbers he's putting up, man. That guy scores every single game. And in game two, that's a marquee career-defining game for him, man. For him to score both those goals, including the OT winner, double overtime, it's incredible what he's done. Yeah. I mean, I think we all expect him to be good. I don't think anyone, maybe not even Brad Marshand, expected to be this good. And he plays on what they call the third line, I guess, here in Florida. But against Toronto, they were the best line.

They were the reason, the primary reason that Florida won their toughest series to date was Marshand in his line and scored in every game in the finals so far. Scored the overtime winner. He scored as a game opener at home the next game. Yeah he's done an amazing job and it's hard not to think about where he ranks and sort of greatest all-time deadline acquisitions and you kind of like it'll last like 30 40 years Marion Gabbard comes to mind I think he led the playoffs in goals when he signed when he got traded to LA one year think Marion Hosa

Went to Pittsburgh one year and had a really big Offensive push but like he's right up there with the greatest sort of deadline as Mika Ranton and I guess would be a deadline guy Too, but right he's right there with him except he's 37 He's not in the prime of his career like those other guys were he sort of the tail end of it and I guess he'll be a Deadline guy too, but he's right there with him, except he's 37. He's not in the prime of his career like those other guys were. He's sort of at the tail end of it, you'd think. But the other part about it is he's playing himself into a lot of suitors this summer and a lot of term, which I imagine he would want given his age.

And he's going to get three years, maybe even more, given how well he's played in this run, if he wants them around the league So Johnny we had a confirmed or deny and let you jump into this That two of the three Will what it was it Hayes that still be a pattern will leave will leave the Panthers and that's ekblad Bennett's and Marchand Panthers and that's Eklad Bennett and Marshand I'm gonna deny Yeah, I'm gonna deny because I think

One will get paid around what he you know, I bet it will get paid appropriately maybe just under Reinhart and With the state tax the one will not roll but it take home pay is gonna be pretty darn good It can be five million bucks. So that's like a ten million dollar contract in Toronto. So he's gonna get paid up, you know appropriately and so he'll say I think has been either one of the X-lad or Marchand will take a significant discount because of the team the state the situation and all of it and one of those two guys will stay like I I think I'm glad gonna have to take a massive discount

but he's been pretty clear that he might. And Marchand has been such a perfect fit. Would he take three years and instead of chasing eight million dollars around the league, would he take three years at five and a half or six here? Net, net, it's not that big of a difference and it's a perfect fit and it's Florida where it's a good place to live as you get a bit older.

I think two of the three figure out. Bennett stays and then one of the other two will stay and one of the other two Will go with Mike Johnson and Gary Bettman was with TNT last night and getting kind of pressed on the state tax stuff and Scoffed at it, you know used all the lines that everyone uses Yet you're traveling with you know the cup, you're in the state of Florida, you're around the team. Do you get the impression the Panthers are defensive of this narrative? Do they fight back against it? Do they agree that, hey, it's a benefit and we're using it? What's the general consensus around them with all this noise about the state tax and the advantage that they have

i think they acknowledge that it is one of several factors in putting together a team may impact their success and they will ignore that for them at the advantage obviously that i cannot download them about it uh... if you can you know you can pitch guide on a take-home pay that will save you money on the cap and then allow you to get more good players that helps but as

Gary Bettman correctly points out I Played for Tampa where there's no state tax back then we were Awful with four thousand people in the building no state tax didn't seem to matter then so it's you know It's a story now because it's good teams And I think Hayes maybe what what maybe the most important might be, point might be, is now that they're better it becomes more of a factor because they're gonna be capped out but also players will want to start coming to these teams and then maybe paying more attention. I don't worry about getting paid six million in Toronto.

I can get paid four and a half in Florida and it's the same amount of money in my pocket and you're more comfortable looking at it in those terms. So as they get better, it becomes more of a story and more impactful but they're not defensive. They appreciate that it's an advantage but don't suggest that that's the only reason why they're good or that's the only reason why the car Yeah are what they are people want to play here because it's a good place to live and it's a good organization That's very successful right now Well, and you're right because it actually makes sense because it happens to be a bonus like you

Hey, the state tax is a bonus, but Gary's right 17 years for 17 years both those Organizations weren't very good. And you can look at Nashville right now, their state tax is low. You look at some of these other organizations, Seattle, there's places. Alberta has good tax situations. But you build the team and the program.

But it is part of the formula that goes with this. It's not 90% of the formula, but if it's 5% of the formula, it's still... Exactly, Brian, it is. That's the thing. I get why Betman... Go ahead. So it's worth something. No doubt, no one would argue otherwise.

So you were in Toronto. What's the value add to Toronto? One, if you're a great player, there's more marketing opportunities. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money. No one would argue otherwise. But okay, so you were in Toronto. What's the value add to Toronto? One, if you're a great player,

there's more marketing opportunities. You can make a lot of more money there. Two, if you care about being famous, you're a lot more famous in Toronto than you are in Florida. Three, if you're not Canadian, guess what the currency of your life expenses are in? Canadian dollars, when you get paid in American dollars.

So if you're on par, your $10,000 a month rent in Florida can get you a $14,000 a month place in Toronto, right? There's a currency evaluation that also all favors Toronto. So maybe not quite as much but there are different things in different places depending on what where you are in your life and what's most important to you. Every market has their little pluses and it's just how you manage those pluses as an organization to put your team together. So I think that's true. I don't think it's the only thing and it's becoming a bit more of a story than it probably actually is because it's easy to latch onto now that Florida's so good. Right. It's right in front of your face and Tampa was part of that and they've built great

programs. I think, I guess the pushback or what's on the line here is the ability to build depth the way that they are. Where I feel like a lot of the things you just mentioned for Toronto, using them as an example, count for the guy who goes, I'll come up there for $1 million because I've always dreamt about being a Leaf. That's all I want and it's the greatest thing in the world. With Florida, it works for the guy who's like, I won't take 10, I'll take 8. It's the top guy. That's where it's that's and that's where it's such a benefit

And I I'm not trying to take anything away from the Bill Zito's done If it's the best GM in the league right now, right? It's a great example except the guy scores 56 goals and wins a Stanley Cup and goes just give me eight six and the reason is Because of the state of the state tax, you know, he wants to stay but they're like well You're gonna make five million where if it was if he was still in Buffalo and it was you know the state tax. He wants to stay, but they're like, well, you're going to make $5 million. If he was still in Buffalo and they had the same team there, you know he'd be saying, I need $11 million.

Well, but also, if Buffalo has different weather, you have different... I understand that, but what I'm talking about is, what that means is literally building the team. Where we keep looking at it from a player's perspective, the real conversation is about the GM's perspective. It should be the GM's yelling and screaming. Because... Of course it is. Like if we just sum it down Hazen, we're gonna do this on July 1st, but if you think about it, on Mitch Marner's contract, the difference between what Toronto would have to pay him to match what Florida, in this example, would have to pay him for him to take home the same amount of money as what Toronto's deal would give him is about three and a half million dollars.

So 14 and a half in Toronto would be 10 in Florida. And Florida would say, listen, you're not taking a pay cut. You're getting the exact same amount of money to take 10. And if you do that three times, get what you get. Guess what you get? Another Mitch Marner. Exactly. That's $10 million you save.

You get another Mitch Marner. You can do that for three players. That is the argument that says, well, hang on if you're building a team, important players, and you can shave a million, two, three off their cabinets, you add that up and all of a sudden the $2 million third line player is a $4 million, $5 million third line player. And then you're a better team. Sure. 100%. But I will just say this in defense of Toronto. Now it didn't work, but one of the things they pitched Steve Stankov in the prime of his career going for a monster contract

was the marketing opportunities. Now it completely backfired, but then they have like the president of Canadian Tire and like companies like that saying, hey, you'll make millions of dollars a year working with us if you were to play here now He didn't want that at all, but that would have been a guy Who could have maybe it will take a little bit less But you make a little bit more in a similar kind of fashion not just older guy But probably the career guy it was pitch to Sammer, right? It was and throw one more thing on it. It doesn't matter pick your poison for the organization Build a winner people will go I need a piece of that. Like, and you know, ask, ask, you

know, the the guys who signed a value contract. Adam Henrik stays in in in Edmonton because he wants to try and win, you know, that type of stuff. You, you, if you have players that you want to play with or a program you want to play off, play with, it becomes the gold standard and people want a piece of that. So if Toronto continues to build that and, you know, hey, we believe we're close, we want that, you are going to see guys that will take a little less to try and be a part of that program.

The guys at the bottom of it. Correct. That's another thing that bothers Leaf fans is that their players never did you know like that's out of the other part of the ship that the other player yes i was a player is conflated individuals totally in it and it's been played at the great word for you but and one other thought about the pain were not there yet but would be cat boy up and up and up

there may be teams in no state taxes that fiscally can't run a profit going all the way to the cap. And Toronto can, and Montreal can, and the Rangers can, and Chicago can, and a lot of the traditional biggest markets are in higher tax brackets. And maybe then there'll be a balancing act, like, yeah, you have no state tax, but you don't have the revenue that we have to get all the way to 125. Your internal cap might be 110.

And then maybe there's a little bit of equaling out there as well. That's a good point. Where if you're winning, then hey, we can keep doing it, because we're making money and ticket sales and all that. If we don't. Falls off. You turn back into Florida and Tampa

and all that kind of stuff. It's all cyclical All right, Johnny, we'll catch up later in the week. Enjoy game for Thursday night All right, fellas the u.s. Open week. I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm waking up early I love yes This is gonna be introduced have you seen the clips of these guys putting from like 120 yards out in the fairway amazing man It's in three feet. Yeah, that putt was wild. But the fact that you could even do that without a driver-like swing is, I'm like, that's what the fairways are running at? What are the dreams at? No kidding, man. No kidding. Like, Texas wedge all over that place.

All day long. Keep it on the ground. I'd be doing it everywhere, man. Everywhere I'd have my putter out. All right, Johnny, enjoy the open as well. We'll do it again soon. All right, boys, have a good week. Mike Johnson. The newest tracks. The new tracks.

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