OverDrive - LeBrun on the Canucks' team conundrum, Marner and Tavares' contract views and Gibson's trade value

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Canucks' conundrum and the next steps for Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, the Maple Leafs' goaltending choices, Mitch Marner and John Tavares' contract views, John Gibson's trade value, Mikko Rantanen's possible deal and more.

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The Canoxer, a big story every night. So that's more like any day ending and why these days, but, uh, you know, just to finish that thought, I was looking to you guys coming on and, um, one of those trades that could end up being a win-win, uh, which you don't have, everyone likes to say that, but it doesn't happen that often at least, um, how about Darcy Kemper? He goes the other way in the pure LinkedIn wall trade, nine, 20 safe percentage for the Kings. He's 11, two and five.

Wow. So I don't know. So, uh, you know, now he's battled a few injuries here and there and I would be the knock on him, but he's looked right at home in LA and it's funny cause I talked to him when the Kings were here early in October and he had a feeling that he would fit in so nicely with the way the Kings play and so on. But Dubois has been unreal. And one of the things that Spencer Carberry told me earlier this season about Dubois,

it wasn't just that he was getting Dubois the hardest assignments, the hardest offensive assignments, hardest minutes, but that Dubois as a teammate, went out of his way to talk about how Dubois as a teammate in the room had been on real right out of the gate. Pretty neat story actually. Yeah that is. Yeah that's significant man. I mean I'll credit him because he didn't really give you any opportunities to offer up any positive commentary about his game, about the way he went out in Winnipeg, his first

year in LA and he's been great, great he's been engaged everything's working for washington and you know as for vancouver like the the peterson scenario is curious to me is generally i find pierre correct me if i'm wrong it in the modern game guys that are game time decisions like ninety nine times out of a hundred play play and he's been a game time decision the last

couple games and he hasn't played like what's going on with this guy? Hazy before you answer Pierre that would piss me off if I'm a coach anybody else it's like oh really what did you take warm-up and you just can't go tonight like it I don't know try me nuts man. Right I don't have much to add on that and I asked the same question and they say he's very close, should be playing any game out.

So we'll see where that goes. I mean, again, we talked about this last week, but it's been such an unbelievable time period for the Connexion. And it really, in terms of the story going next level, guys, it has to go back to right before Christmas. There was a regular morning skate at Vail where Quinn Hughes, who was just trying to be a good captain

and he was a very thoughtful guy, basically confirmed what everyone was dancing around, which was that, yeah, trying to get along and got issues and essentially by the end of the answer ends up naming both J.T. Miller and Bederson. And again, not in a negative way, in a way that I'm the leader and we all have good days and bad days.

But, and then Rick Tauke as well got into it and is available. What it did that day, if you track all this story back of the momentum it's had, is that it put, it confirmed publicly what everyone had been talking about. It's one thing to know from your sources and look at the filing and it's another thing now for the team to come out and basically say, yeah, this is going on.

Pretty unique. I mean, I'm not seeing a lot of NHL teams deal with it that way and it's okay. Maybe that's their way out of this, whether it's via trade or via finally fixing all this in the room but how do you see it playing out here like what do you see the end game here two months from now are they both on the roster which one's gone like what's what's your final play here my prediction is one is gone it's not an easy trade whoever it is so let's start with Jason Miller. I mean, he's obviously a big leader on that team.

He's got a whole no move. And I know from checking in this week, he's not asked for a trade, and the Connex haven't approached him about waiting. Now that obviously can change with one phone call, but I always like to say, let's start with the facts. So that's that. On Pedersen, who does not have no move protection until July 1st. So

he has no say right now. But you know, and listen, they can actually talk on the teams on both. That's been out there. That's confirmed. I've talked to a bunch of teams. You know, it's hard to know right now is how many teams are calling out of pure curiosity and how many teams want to bring that conversation next level. One of the things that, you know, one team said to me is, Hey, you know, Peterson's in year one of an eight year deal paying them 11.6 million a year. We want to make sure if we decide to go, and I don't know if this keeps going on, but we decide to go next level that he is that player, but it's, you know,

it's been a struggle really dating back to late last year. So it's absolutely fascinating drama. And as I said, I'm not an insider training by the way, lost in all of this. Rick Tocqueville expires at the end of the year. Last year, Jack Adams award winner as coach of the year, there is an option on his contract mind you, but still.

And again, that doesn't mean that he won't be extended. He brought Vindamore coached right through his deal last year before signing, so it's not uncommon. But I don't know, it's just another little thing to say to yourself. You know, if you were talking at the end of the year, you know, and this was a year to probably top some years ever have in terms of everything going on. I don't know. It's just another thing to file away, I guess.

Hey, Pierre, speaking of Bryndamore, the Leafs into Carolina tonight, into O's old stomper grounds to face the Hurricanes. And, you know, the Hurricanes are an interesting team because they've had goalie health problems kind of like the Leafs. The Tchaikovs have been good, but they've had Freddy Anderson in there, Dustin Tokarski I think they've gone through about five different guys this season already halfway through What do you make of the way the Leafs are handling Stolarz's absence with that in mind? Because what is he now? This will be his 20th start of the year

He started he's been in 10 to the 15 games Since Stolarz went down and this is a guy with a career high of 23 starts. This is not a guy who's got a track record durability. You've looked at this subject a lot in this league. What do you make of the way the leader handled this? You're right. I am fascinated by goalies, and yet I still know nothing about them.

You know, that was one of the interesting things that Leafs management talked about internally when they made their plan of going with Stolarz and Wolfe. Stolarz really one of the real clever signings. There were other teams that were in their hard too because everyone had looked at his numbers under the hood in Florida, but the Leafs got him. But the one thing that Leafs management knew is that they were combining Stolarz with wool, two guys who had never really carried the ball far in a year. Neither one had ever been a workhorse. So the hope, the plan was that between the two of them, when you collect their starts, they can get through the year

and get excellent goaltending. They have had excellent goaltending, but both guys have missed time, right? Wall at the start and now Stolar's. But, you know, you can look at where the Leafs are and go counting numbers and goes against it. There is zero argument other than to say it's been a success so far.

But we're after two years. So let's see, let's see how this keeps going. And the one thing that's good for Wall right now, I'd say is that the Leafs don't have any back-to-back games until after four nations. I was just reading that in Mark Nassar's notes. So that's a pretty good setup in terms of giving him as many starts as you think he can take for quite a while.

In terms of the Hurricanes, I've reported this before, but they do want upgrading goal. Listen, they believe Quichetkov's the true number one, but they're a little nervous what happens if he goes down, especially come play out time. Freddie Anderson is still out. What's he gonna be like when he returns? They've been calling around probably more so than any other team in the league over the last couple months

looking at the goalie market. One team that they've re-engaged with is Anaheim on John Gibson. I don't know if that will ultimately lead to a trade because he's got three and a half years left at a pretty big ticket. Gibson's been unreal this year in Anaheim. It's been a real renaissance year for him.

So the Ducks are asking for... What does that mean, Pierre, though, for Carolina? There's two years left on his deal. They need a goalie. So you go get them. Like what? I think they should, oh, dog. I'm not kidding.

That's what I don't understand. Like, what's the stopper there? Like, there's two. You got to pay the guy if you want to get him. What, do they not want to pay him? Well, I mean, listen, before this year, to be fair, I'm just going to play double that again. First of all, I'm with you.

I think this is really at Gibson They went pretty far by the way in Gibson trade talks last summer and it ended up not happening And now they were engaged with them, but you know what I think of going pretty far and trade like give me a boy I know I it's not that until it's done And I'm with you the devil's advocate position just play counter with you is that before this year Gibson had? Kind of had a few years of injuries and uneven play. So you have to take the whole thing in and in now I again what I've seen from him this year is I think he's back and he's motivated and he's you know the ducks telling me he's got a great attitude. I would find Carolina that's that's a big move. Now in the meantime the hurricanes are also frowning

around looking at a few at an authentic upgrade they They're looking at forwards too. So you know Carolina is always thinking things trade wise and that's what they are right now so we'll see where that goes. With Pierre LeBrun our TSN Hockey Insider. It was a year ago yesterday William Nylander signed his eight year deal January January 8th, 2024. The reason I bring that up is I guess it was this time last year where the Leafs said, alright, enough, let's just do it. That's the number, that's the term, let's go, which would suggest they're comfortable

with doing that around this time of year. Tavares is different because of his age and the contract is going to look different, but Mitch is, this year's William Nylander. time of year uh... to ours is different because of his age of the contracts can look different but mentions this year's william neil ander uh... i don't sense it's anywhere close the deal is going to make smart just a just to be sure

next morning and make me sure i'm talking to smarter yeah i'm i'm talking about uh... yeah i think it is whereas marter at and you know you know i get the impression like maybe he wants to play this out and Sniff around free agency or something like that I'm curious your take on that like the idea of him betting on himself what he's What I find interesting about that is if you're betting on yourself That means you better show up in the playoffs and you're also banking on your teammates showing up and helping you

Have that opportunity to bet on yourself in the playoffs it seems like a bit of a gamble if he really wants to be here like really wants to be a leaf for life why would he possibly wait any longer like why wouldn't you try to get this done immediately if the Leafs are willing to do it? Yeah no listen it's the question and and you know give Marner and the Leafs some Brad Shearling credit and Darren Ferris the agent it's the question and give Marner and the lease and Brett Shirley and credit and Darren Ferris, the agent, it's not been a headline story most of the year, which is pretty unbelievable. Neil Anders sucked up way more oxygen a year ago compared to this negotiation, which arguably

is just as important, if not more so. What I would tell you on that is this, that there's no, and I've written about this before, but there's no question in my mind written about this before, but there's no question in my mind that part of the dialogue that I think has been a stumbling block in that conversation is that much like Colorado's doing with Nathan McKinnon's cap number in the Meekle-Ranton conversation, the lease obviously appointed to Austin Matthews, A.V. and saying, you know, can't really pay anyone more than that and I understand that from the team perspective what I would tell you from the agent perspective is the salary cap is going up aggressively here

in the next year or two and depending on what happens between the league and the P.A. maybe even more so. I feel like I've heard that four years in a row and it doesn't happen. Well no now I mean Betman has talked about it at the Board of Governors or DOG that they may have, they wanna match the cap potentially in a phase and to the revenues that are expected to jump up aggressively. The point being that if you're Darren Flores

with Mitch Marner or if you're Andy Scott of Octagon with Nico Ranzen and you're counter to the so-called internal cap conversation, it's not the AED that matters, it's the percentage of the cap and the cap's going up. So I think that's been a real stumbling block and those two negotiations have a lot of parallels in Colorado and Toronto. And it's actually why this week I wrote kind of just thinking out loud, not because someone had told me something but

with all these deferred contracts that we've seen of late well, we won't see four but You know, is there a way since the lease I've already done a deferred contract with Jason Cave. Is there a way to massage an AEB with deferred payments on a Marner extension? I will tell you that I don't think that probably interests the agent. 90% of agents that I heard from in the wake of the Frank Petrano contract are against deferred payments. They don't like the concept. They don't like the idea.

So it probably isn't a solution than this Marner thing. So it really comes down to this guy. I don't think the lease deal there, they can or will pay more than 13 million, maybe 12 and a half million. Is that good enough for Marner on an eight-year deal? Remember, you can get eight here, but seven on the open market. And if that's where it is, and again, a lot of this is my own read on things, not on the other side of talking, but I think that's the clear line of demarcation around two and a half to 13 million here. If that's where everything is, it'd probably be who's both

sides to weight of it, I guess, because what's going to change? This is my point. Part of me, just from experience living here and knowing the market, and this season is another example of it, I'm sure both sides realize, yeah, it could be loud for a few weeks but by next season they'll play well and they'll win in the regular season and everyone will shut up about it. That's probably what they're banking on. The reason why I preface my comment is because I do think that that's important to point out and that is probably what they're considering.

What I'm reaching at here is with the betting on yourself, I like that mentality. I like that attitude. I'm going to bet on myself. I'm going to show you guys we're going to do it this year. We're going to win. If Marner is great and they go to a cup final or something then guess what? He's gonna ask for whatever and the in the everything will flip and everyone will say you better pay him you better sign them And all the pressure will be on the lease at that point

I like that mentality but it's a gamble because if you show up in the playoffs and you don't perform and you're losing the first round this market is going to go insane. And Mitch will be at the forefront of it and he knows that. And then it becomes a scenario where you could be in trouble if you really want to stick around long term. I guess that's what I'm saying. The most comfortable way to do this, if you're Mitch, if Marner's like, I'm committed, I

want to be a Leaf for life before the playoffs well maybe you are the playoffs that the out well and and ike listen i'm not as advisor people do whatever he wants to do but i would suggest that that would be his best interest yeah and and and i guess where i would differ with you brian is and again and this is just merely in the tle's but

and you talk about me being very unsolved and look at what their life first with you Brian is and again this is just me reading the tealies but he talked about maybe in bed on himself and looking at what there's like first my guess is the opposite I think he actually really really can't see himself in any other uniform than Sean Maple Leafs but is trying to follow his agent's advice and make sure that his agent's you know taking care of his problem sure and I understand that's a's a business, I get it. But the other thing too, and I know this side of it's a bit, you know, it's not that exciting to talk about.

You know, Gary Berman doubled down the Board of Governors last month and we were all there, the panel, and said that if all goes well, maybe he's got a new CBA to announce in June at the cup final. Well, if there's a new CBA in June at the cup final, you're going to know if the cap jumped way more than it's supposed to.

And that will probably have a pretty big influence on things, both for Marner and Ranthan and Willett-Nott. So I think gaining more knowledge here with what's going on in the PA and the league is also not nothing in all this. Valid from their standpoint for sure. Now again, like you said, if the Leafs say, I don't care if there's 15 new CBAs, no one's making more than Austin, then we'll see if they actually stick to that or not. But if they are and they're serious about it, then ultimately it doesn't matter about

that CBA. It's irrelevant, right? It's completely irrelevant. For all these guys, if you want to, if Rantanen wants to stay, you can't make more than 12.6 or whatever, because that's what McKinnon makes. Yeah, it's very simple. If you want to make that, then you've got to play your playing somewhere else.

That's it, exactly. If the teams have the backbone to stick to it, right? It's easy to say it right now. They may not stick to it. And the players both have to say, I get to with austin matthews and nathan mckinnon do i want to go play with not even close to that that's what you got away that's that's where the pressure point to the dinner that's a and and and and you know marlon randall and great players on their own for sure but

exactly just a little bit you know like about austin's remit and like the boat nathan mckinnon for meen and those two guys have been thick as thieves forever right since they've been NHL players and you know, and this is not, this is not a shot at Marner at all, unbelievable player who's going to play for Team Canada, he's having another great year. If Miko Rampen is playing on the Canadian team, like forget about it in terms of, like people still sleep on his greatness in my mind. Look at his playoff numbers. The guy's a horse. The guy is an absolute horse. So that negotiate you know we're in Toronto and it's the least so of course

the Marner thing is bigger but I'm telling you that Ranton and one is one that people around the league are really paying a close attention to like if somehow that guy goes to market, my goodness. Well, they're tied in points right now. Ranton and Marner, they're tied for third in league points right now, 58, but Ranton has got 10 more goals. So yeah, I would say his case is pretty strong. There's a bigger gap between McKinnon and Matthews too, right? McKinnon's at 12-6 I think Austin's at 13.25

it's not a ton but it is something so you know if the internal cap is lower in Colorado take that for what it's worth as well. Well McKinnon also signed the deal three years ago so yeah that's also different than Matthews you know I think that strengthens probably Rampant is Camp's case of A. It's called leapfrog, you know? Like Rampant and Leapfrog now, then McKinnon and Leapfrog later.

That probably is. And then McCarr goes over all three of them anyway. Right, exactly. That's what's coming. All right, Pierre, we'll leave it there. Thank you, buddy. All right, go Packers. Go Packers.

There it is. I love hearing that. Pierre Lebrun, our TSN hockey insider, joining us here on the Maple Toyota Hotline. Count on Maple Toyota for the right winter tire package for your Toyota. Trade in your old tires, buy a new set, and get $40 back. Visit mapletoyota.com.