OverDrive - May on Soto landing with the Mets, the significant deal with the team and Guerrero Jr.'s contract status

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Former MLB Pitcher and Host of the MayDay Podcast Trevor May joined OverDrive to discuss Juan Soto landing with the Mets, Soto's significant contract on the team, the Mets' ability to lead the free agency market, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract status and his next steps in Toronto and more.

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or visit askkelvin.ca former mlb pitcher and host of the mayday podcast trevor may trevor you're you're a former player you know you're you're making money in your time what do you what do you think of uh 15 years 765 million uh well let Paul, let's handle that first number first. First of all, thanks for having me on, guys. I always love coming on. 15 years is so long. I can't even wrap my head around. Most guys are like, I just want to get to 10 years in the big league

so that I can say I did it. And, yeah, that's a long time to, long commitment for anything, honestly. But when it comes to the tune of $765 million, none of which is deferred, which is maybe the craziest part about this contract, I think that anyone would sign on the dotted line for a 15-year commitment for that kind of money. So, yeah, blown away. Blown away that it got to that number because in my mind and in a lot of people's,

I think to this point, there's still going to be a little bit of like you just, you cannot compare values to Otani, and he just blew past him in dollar value. Just because of the Japanese market, just because of the pitching and the hitting, just because of all the things that Shohei brings to the table that Juan simply cannot because of who he is and where he was born. And it's just crazy. It's a, I guess, benchmark-setting historic change here

in how markets are going to be discovered. Like the next 19-year-old we have come up who's a phenom, it's going to be really fun projecting what they're going to get. Can you take us behind the curtain? Like how did Boros and Soto use other teams here? Because Blue Jays fans, they don't want to hear it, but they realistically had no shot at this guy. So what did the agent and the player do to kind of get the number continuing to rise?

Well, getting Steve Cohen involved is always a good option. I think that so. Why is that? Because he just says, yeah, okay, I'll pay you whatever you want. Yes, and he has that reputation. So even if you don't hear anything, you assume that whatever the number thrown out is, he can beat it, which makes negotiations or sweetening the deal in any way, shape, or form.

Like if you have something special, you know, in your area, your team, your city that you want to offer, if you have something special, you know, in your area, your team, your city that you want to offer, it's hard to, it's hard to know how to differentiate yourself when you know that money, you're not going to be able to beat money. Probably matching is the best you can hope for. And it just so happens that there was a bunch of room over there in terms of payroll to use as well. It's kind of a perfect storm. So that's a big thing.

Here's a little peek behind the curtain in terms of just free agency in general. I mean, I went through it twice and I was a reliever. So there was a little bit of, we on purpose were trying to get a number out there, what offers may have been involved, and who, not exactly who, but how many teams might be involved, just so that we could get two teams interested in kind of working against each other. That's kind of the way it is. That's kind of how negotiations work. Very rarely one team, there's only one team interested, and now the negotiations between those two parties, the player and the team, there's only one team interested, and now the negotiations between those two parties, the player and the team,

that's not how free agency works in baseball because of the way that, you know, control is set up, six years of control, so free agency has to be the time. And so, kind of not having that feeling is the point because so many guys don't even get to

it. So, I don't, but I know that Juan also kind of wanted to be under wraps a little bit. So it is interesting in this case that secrecy might have been the thing that drove it, that nobody actually knows might have actually created this bidding war because Steve Cohen was involved. And the one thing we did know is you couldn't outbid him. So I think that's kind of what happened. So, Trevor, how big of a dagger is it that he goes, you know,

within the city just to the other team? I mean, from a fan base standpoint, from everything, like organizational, is it an extra twist of the knife? I think it's hard to ignore that fact. Yeah. It's a tough day for Yankees fans. I think that one thing, one bit of credit,

and I don't know if Blue Jays fans would be too willing to do this, but I'll do it. You know, I got to give them a little bit of credit for understanding, you know, that Juan Soto,

they just saw for a year, they had him, he was an amazing, his best year, one of his best, if not his best year. And they still came up short for the World Series. They knew they needed more than that, right? So they weren't resting all of their hopes on him. So maybe that helps a little bit.

But it is a little bit of a slap in the face, especially when you've been a long time. Yankees fans, you're supposed to be the evil empire. No one's supposed to be able to outbid you. But frankly, Hal Steinbrenner is not George. And it would have been interesting, honestly, if we had prime, we had 90s George Steinbrenner bidding against Steve Cohen and how that would have gone down. I'm sure it would have been a very fun reality show to follow. But it's just the teams run a little bit differently now, and that's

not the way they operate. I think that the Dodgers probably are there, and now the Mets are in that conversation as well. They've kind of taken it up. So yeah, looking over at the other borough and seeing that they got the player that you wanted to keep and that was supposed to be yours probably

seems quite a bit. Uncharted territory really i mean it never happens the the yankees always own that type of market now the mets are there with them we're chatting with trevor may former met former mlb pitcher and host of the mayday podcast so up here in toronto you know people turn the page and now you look at vladdy and vladdy being the prized possession of free agency possibly next year and i i don't think anyone would suggest it'll be the same sweepstakes as otani or Soto, nor should it be. But let's say Vladi, you know, at this point goes,

don't call me, I'm going to play it out, I'm going to get to the market, I'm going to test it, and he puts up a great year. He just replicates what he did last year. Last year he was phenomenal. He had a bit of a slow start, then he was great. He has, let's say, the same year he had last year. So it goes back-to-back, really high-quality seasons. He's 26 years old.

He hits free agency. How much money do you think he's going to get? How much per year of Soto's making 51 million per year? What is, what is reasonable for the Vladdy camp to expect bidders to get to? Well, one thing that's interesting about Vladdy is his production is, is much more of a middle of the lineup

power. Most of it comes from his power, and that tends to age a little bit worse. He doesn't have strikeout problems either, but being 26 is just, that's the crazy thing. That's

projecting, it's common knowledge's the yeah that's you know projecting uh the it's common knowledge that you're you're the general idea is your prime is between 28 to 33 and if you're getting all of those years plus a couple before like that is added value almost like kind of hard to imagine so if he got into the 400s the near 500, that wouldn't surprise me at this point. I think Soto kind of blew the ceiling off. I thought Otani did, but evidently I was wrong. So I think that it's entirely possible,

but he is a first baseman. He is probably just body type and, and where he's playing. And he's not, he's not, he doesn't play the outfield. Like there, there's a,

there's some longevity there, but also guys tend to kind of slow down a little bit faster you think miggy cabrera so i mean if you got miggy cabrera i think anyone would be great happy with that um and he is 26 but there is a little bit of a of a the age a little bit worse so probably wouldn't be 15 years but if it was was like an 11, 12, or even up there around the Stanton 13 year that he got in Miami, that wouldn't surprise me one bit. And now those $300 million deals are going to be $400 plus million deals. Just add $100 million on. So I would say he's probably somewhere between $400 and $500 just with all that stuff taken into account.

Well, and it's wild. Like a year ago, I remember Jeff Passan reporting, he's like, no first baseman get $300 million. And then even Jeff turned back on that a few months ago where he was like, actually, Vlade's going way above that. And now you look at Soto, and like you said,

26, he's a magnetic figure. He's a big personality, fun to watch play. I don't know what his health will be like in the future, but he's healthy now. He plays every day effectively. Like you got to pull him off the field, Vladdy. He's not a guy that doesn't love playing baseball. He does.

And I think you're right. I think two years ago it would have been like 250, 275. Now it feels like it's 450. Like it's just, it just crazy the amount of money and the way we have to adjust things in, like, two years. And the Jays have to figure it out. Like, do you have a feeling one way or another, Trevor, that, like, they're going to find a way to keep Vladdy, you know,

and Bo Bichette? And if they don't, like, what do they possibly do up here in Toronto if they let Vladdy walk in free agency? do up here in Toronto if they let Vladdy walk in free agency? I think that letting Vladdy walk in free agency cannot happen. I think that you either have to get something in return at a deadline, if that's the decision you make, that would sting, but that would, you have to get something back.

I think that the fans even would agree that if that's going to be, if he's going to end up not being a Blue Jay in 2026, then let's get some players so we can continue to build a core if he's not going to be part of it. Or you need to make him the centerpiece of your franchise because you just got outbid on the last two big guys, and I don't blame anybody for that. I mean, we're talking $700 million. That's just a really hard pill to swallow no matter who it is.

So if you can't get those guys, you got to have your centerpiece to build around. And he's 26 years old. So you still got so much time for the great years of him. And if he's already there, you know, there might be a chance for a hometown discount, or at least uh uh you you get a year of negotiating and talking about it when nobody else can talk to

him about it and that's another advantage so take advantage of those things or decide that you're gonna you're gonna not necessarily tear it all down because the blue jays are not one of those organizations they got but you know pivot to okay to, okay, we need a core. We got to figure out where our core is going to come from and see how many players we can get for these two guys, because they're young and they're, they're, they can help a competing team right now. If we're not going to, you got to make the decision one way or the other. But they've gone after the two big guys.

So I think that they want to keep these guys in the core. So I would say focus on paying Blighty now and maybe not wait until he's $450 million to where you have to get in this bidding war again. And God forbid Steve Cohen just decides he wants to be part of that too. Right now, if bidding wars are going to have to happen,

I would avoid it with all costs with that guy floating around the league. I think that's probably a wise move. But will it happen? I don't know. I mean, there isn't a lot of optimism in this market right now when it comes to this front office and the way they operate. He is Trevor May, former MLB pitcher, host of the Mayday podcast. Great catching up with you, Trevor.

Really appreciate you doing this. Of course. Thanks for having me, guys. You got it.