OverDrive - OverDrive - May 14, 2025 - Hour 3

Episode Date: May 15, 2025

Join Bryan Hayes, Jamie McLennan and Jeff O'Neill for Hour 3 on OverDrive! The guys were joined by TSN Hockey Analyst Frankie Corrado to chat about how Auston Matthews' role has changed and the Maple ...Leafs' lineup changes ahead of Game 5 and Hayes hands out his FanDuel Best Bets.

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Starting point is 00:00:54 Sun Life and official partners Air Canada and Mastercard. Tickets at Cirque du Soleil.com. Final Hour Overdrive continues powered by by fando bringing you everything from the opening line of the final score we are an hour away from part job right here on t s and ten fifty and just over an hour away from first pitch downtown's gonna be wild and i have to find a way to get down there in an our from now but uh...
Starting point is 00:01:19 frankie carados join us in studio that's not your concern frankie i feel for you man thank you now they're in the dvd thank you for your concern oh i've always said this there should be a helicopter service from somewhere in vaughn or somewhere in that you know north king or whatever it takes you to be down there in seven minutes drops you off somewhere on bay and around there on the top of a building and you you walk down and away you go perfect a we not have that why don't we have a date that's a vegas thing and come on thing we should have that as a new york
Starting point is 00:01:50 thing it's a vancouver thing is a big i don't know if they were thinking big and i was a big in vancouver you're there to go for it's like an uber you go like you can uber can you not noodles well they in in vancouver you can take a helicopter from vancouver to Grouse Mountain like right up the right around to Whistler to all of that. What's that costing you though? It's not it can't be $58 when it's not 50 prime time. You know, I didn't
Starting point is 00:02:16 say that it was cheap. I'm saying if you want to beat the clock, you want to be there for puck drop. That's the difference. That would be incredible You got to put it in Vaughn because all the all the builders and all the builders sons. Yes I'll hop on that. They've got a way of like is this a pure cash transaction? Yes, it is that would be epic man If I got helicoptered in tonight for the game, man, that would be amazing right into Maple Leaf Square Yeah, just drop me right into Maple. There is that's hazy B. There he is in my in my suit cruising into the ring tonight Well, what are you expecting this evening Frankie? Dude?
Starting point is 00:02:52 I have no idea what to expect right now like you talk to You talk to people in this market and you're getting I find I'm getting both ends of the spectrum I'm getting the guys that say it's over seen, seen this before, they're not gonna do it, and they get the people that are truly optimistic that, no, it's just a little blip, we're good, it's different. So I really don't know what to expect. I think, you guys have talked about this all afternoon, of course Austin Matthews has to score.
Starting point is 00:03:22 They're not gonna beat the Florida Panthers by winning the depth battle. It's just, that's not, I would be shocked if that's what's has to score. It just they're not gonna beat the Florida Panthers by winning the depth battle. It's just that's not I would be shocked if that's what's available to them. Right. The other thing if you go to games one and two, did you guys not think the Leafs were a step faster than the Panthers in game one and two and now Florida's found a way to slow things down a little bit and that obviously plays into their hand. But I think Toronto like they were they were good off the rush. They were making plays and they made the Panthers look slow.
Starting point is 00:03:51 And the Leafs are not the fastest team in the NHL by any stretch of the imagination. But in those two games, they look really fast. So like that'll be an early indicator, I think, as far as what kind of game we're gonna get. But as of right now, I don't have of right now I don't have a like I don't I don't I don't have a still out there man I'm with you and I actually think that's that's probably a testament to the Leafs in the way that they played through 10 playoff games that I don't I don't have
Starting point is 00:04:17 a feeling it's gonna go wrong for them right which I think I have had at times in the past I think you know know, it's a great opportunity. We've been expressing this for the past couple of days. Like, you can't ask for anything better. You got a best two out of three against the Cup champs to knock them out, and you got home ice. And yes, Storrs is not healthy, but everyone else is. You got a full lineup. Yeah, and you got options, because you might have guys coming in that might be able to help. Okay, you talk about having a feeling. Do you remember the year that Toronto lost to Tampa
Starting point is 00:04:48 in the first round? What was that, 2022? 22, yes. So they won game five, they lost game six. I had a feeling they were gonna lose game seven. Like that had a feel. It's like, man, if they didn't do it in six, I can't see them winning a game seven
Starting point is 00:05:05 based on their track record, their history, their inability to get it done. But I don't have that feeling yet. But there are options for them today. David Kempf could come in, Nick Robertson could come in. I mean, they're small things, but at least you're healthy and you're not hampered by guys' inability to be out there. That's the one thing where I was gonna go, Frankie,
Starting point is 00:05:26 is you talked about guys potentially coming in. And it's not, you know, they aren't, and I'm trying to be respectful, they're not the biggest difference makers, they're a different look of a player. And give an example, like, you know, Edmonton puts in Kaepernick and puts in Stetcher. Just two players, you know, Kaepernick gets Kapanen and puts in Stetcher. Just two players.
Starting point is 00:05:45 You know, Kapanen gets a look with Drysaddle. That's a pretty good look to play with. Like, you know, he's not trucking along on a fourth line. Stetcher plays on a third pairing. Different look and they end up having success. I thought Kapanen looked really good. He didn't score. He didn't do anything, but he was a difference maker to help them.
Starting point is 00:06:03 Could Nick Robertson come in and be a difference maker even if he doesn't score but maybe it's you just talked about maybe it's speed maybe it's tenacity maybe it's drawing a panel draw down the only one shot one shot with conviction pastor gave a broadsky like at least that has nick robertson does that he can do that and yes you're putting in a guy that it has the ability to do that if he goes into my what do you what you guys think of this like if david camphor to play
Starting point is 00:06:28 you obviously trust him killing penalties like if he does anything that's what he what he can do austin matthews played almost two and a half minutes short-handed last game don't you think if camp comes in you don't play matthews as much or even at all for that matter short-handed and just say save it for the five on five and the power play shifts. I want you to be really fresh for those see if you can score. Well that would be deviating from you know the way that that Barube has coached and his philosophies really have played out all year though. I mean that would be a
Starting point is 00:07:00 significant change because Barube has clearly looked at at Matthews and said you got to be a Leader in every single area of this team Including penalty kill and I honestly think like a kill is is more important than five on five play In my opinion in the playoffs, so you need him to score. I I understand that but he should be able to do both I think I think in a way that's letting him off the hook. Like, you know, we got, okay, like, what does that mean? Five on five, he's going to double shift in five on five? What if, you know, what if there's six, seven penalties called tonight against you? You need them on the ice.
Starting point is 00:07:34 He's more fresh at five on five, maybe. That was always the stance from Sheldon Keefe. Yeah. Was I want to save them for the shifts, particularly after a kill, get them out there, take advantage of a fourth line for the opponents or Whatever I can reason with that philosophy But I honestly think Perube is looking at this as as more of a big picture like this is a Identity thing you're our leader. You got it. Killing penalties are very important in the playoffs. You got to kill them Well, you know, and I think that's the way he looks at it
Starting point is 00:08:02 And I think he should be expected to do that and score goals, you know, because everything else he's doing He's doing well like he's doing this isn't an effort issue. This is no it's not you're making mental mistakes all over the ice None of that has happened. He doesn't I don't I don't think he's got body image like body language issues or anything like I think everything Matthews has done across the board has been very very positive and very good. It's very very precise. It's scoring goals that we're talking about here which is if anything I would have figured it would have been the opposite. You know he's cheating for off he's getting his offense but man defensively he's struggling
Starting point is 00:08:42 not it's not it's the opposite. But he's got to connect both worlds man defensively, he's struggling. He's not. He's not, man. It's the opposite. But he's got to connect both worlds, man. You got to do it. That's why you're one of the best players in the world. That's who you are. And you know what? In the end, you can change that. You can score, and it silences the critics on one end.
Starting point is 00:09:00 Ultimately, you'll take a win anyway it gets delivered. It would be nice if your top players deliver it, absolutely. But it doesn't have to be your top players every night. In a game like this, it's a game of inches. It's a game of maybe one mistake here or there. A puck pops over a stick or a breakaway or a missed assignment. I don't know. I've got this feeling like I think somebody will win like decidedly tonight.
Starting point is 00:09:31 I don't know how you guys... You see a 5-2 win either way going away. Well, it's been one goal games the whole time. Last game was for the most part a one goal game. Yeah, it was. Like it's been... Even game one where Bobroski was terrible, they come back, I know there's an injury and all of that.
Starting point is 00:09:47 And I wanted to say, you know, you said the Stolar's injury, Joseph Wall played 42 games this year. Like he played more than Stolar's and there were times on the show where we were like, yeah, it's Wall's net. Well, he's done a good job. So I don't think they're playing shorthanded or anything. They're playing different goaltender. Obviously Stolar's handles the puck better.
Starting point is 00:10:07 And he was playing so well. Like he was winning basically every game. Yeah, I agree. But yes, you're not dealing with... It's not a massive drop off. That's my point. Like you've got a really good goaltender in there. But in the end, like, we haven't seen a game where it hasn't been a nail-biter. Yeah. Really. No, they've been four great games. haven't seen a game where it hasn't been a nail-biter. Really. No, they've been four great games.
Starting point is 00:10:27 If Auston Matthews scores two, then we might not be talking about a one goal game. That's something that just hasn't factored in and the games have been close. Last game, Matthews had seven shot attempts, three hit the net, one got blocked, and three missed the net. I don't know about you guys, but I find, like if you go back over the years of playoffs, I just have like memories of Matthews getting chances and hitting glass. Like the Montreal series, I think I remember it. The Boston series, I remember it. And, you know, chances are not always plentiful, but I find the, like in these moments,
Starting point is 00:11:04 it's like maybe he's trying to just pick that perfect corner. Because he's so good at it, we see him do it so often, and maybe we almost take it for granted, but it's like, I don't know, it's just something that's like banked in my memory. And then you look last game and there it is, three missed nets, like that's seven shot attempts for Austin Matthews in a game, you gotta think
Starting point is 00:11:23 one of those is going in. Yeah or like a glorious chance. The goalie has to rob you type of thing. I got that Bob made a good glove save on the one where he was kind of alone on that back door. I think he double-pumped it he overthought it. Yes he did. Usually kind of shoots it quick right? Well and clearly the scouting report is like go high on Bob, but if you're thinking that, and I mean that may speak to why the miles per hour on his shot is down a little bit too. Like if you're trying to place it instead of blasting it, that can have an effect on the shot. Yeah, it's not, but it's not the old school just like close your eyes and shoot it, you
Starting point is 00:12:01 know what I mean? Like that's such a grinder, fourth--line mentality this guy's the best goal scorer in the world he obviously knows what he's doing he doesn't need us to tell him what to do how to that's just an observation that he just misses the seems like he well he's leading the league and miss miss shots through these playoffs I mean again I take take that for what it's worth but he's not alone you know you look at Marner tonight like Mitch is not a guy that he hasn't supplied a lot of offense in games like this one tonight. You know, games five, six, and seven throughout his career, the stats are everywhere, everyone's seen them. They fall off a cliff for him. He hasn't generated much offense. He scored the game winner
Starting point is 00:12:39 in game two, that was big. Hasn't, I think he's registered what, one shot in the last three games. game two that was big hasn't I think he's registered what one shot in the last three games and I think it was the winner so you know it's and again you don't look to him necessarily as as a goal scorer but I think it was you Sanis yesterday noodles maybe Jonas he scored 30 goals this year yeah like if you if you score 30 you're a goal scorer in the league he's a 30 goal scorer yes like he can score 30 basically every year i guess exactly has that ability that's a guy that needs to be expected to score as well not to the same extent as matthews
Starting point is 00:13:12 but not far behind like the packing orders austin willy mitch in terms of who's gonna score maybe for two bars in there yet but it's not like it not steven lawrence and mitch marner on the same well-being level i mean it the thing is is you need scoring, but you also need to keep the puck out of the other. Of course.
Starting point is 00:13:30 That's the biggest challenge too, is as much as we're talking about Matthews and that, I guarantee you, the overdrive of Florida is going, where's Kachuk? Has Kachuk had a statement game yet? Where is he? He hasn't scored in the series. He hasn't scored since game three of the Tampa series and it clearly looks hurt But I thought I thought he played better last game. I actually thought last game
Starting point is 00:13:53 He was noticeable not just because he had the pass on the back door in the power play He actually looked like he was getting to two areas on the ice where he couldn't get to in the previous games But you know, that's the challenge too is we're all talking about offense. Defense wins man like you've got to keep it out of your own net like that's the that's the the beauty of this. It's going to come back to discipline too. I hope the refs I don't know who's repping tonight but I hope we're not talking about poor calls.
Starting point is 00:14:20 Well just let them play tonight. Well I mean the Toronto penalties in the first period of last game they're kind of all you have to make those calls. Just let them play tonight. Well, I mean, the Toronto penalties in the first period of last game, they're kind of all, you have to make those calls. Don't you think? I get it. Like the high stick, the hook, even the boarding. The McMahon boarding. The puck over glass. That's a dumb play by him though. Like to me, you got to read the game. I know you're
Starting point is 00:14:38 aggressive and want to finish your check, but it's clear right now, regardless if a guy turns or not, you've got to be in control of your body because we have seen some hits from behind you know that whether a guy's done it to himself or he's put himself in that position or the player that's hitting him is a little overzealous and maybe wired up and goes I'm just going to go through the numbers here and you've got to be in like that was a dangerous zone hit you know it was a couple feet off the boards. Well, Rodriguez isn't playing tonight. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:10 You know what though, like if, you know, it always sounds so barbaric to say this type of stuff. But the guys on the bench would be thinking, if you're gonna take that penalty, we can kind of kill that one off. You know what I mean? Like if you're gonna run a guy through the boards, it's like that gray area for sure. We're not supposed to talk about it, but like those are the ones the guys will be like, you take
Starting point is 00:15:31 a pound of flesh, we'll kill that one off. The high stick, the hook, that's the stuff that you get into trouble. Two hundred feet away from your net, like that's the one on the offensive, like when you're forechecking and you hook a guy in the hands, two hundred feet away from you. Like if you're going to take a penalty, what you're saying, you know hook a guy in your hands 200 feet away from me like If you're gonna take a penalty what you're saying Frankie is make the guy pay it make the guy pay for it a little bit You're gonna take a slashing penalty hit him in the somewhere where it's not padded You know take a little chunk of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's it's completely barbaric But I mean that's what everyone's thinking
Starting point is 00:16:01 It's it's what everyone's thinking on the bench like Like the Marner thing, since we brought up Marner, it almost has sometimes a feel in these moments where it's like Marner defers to be in the playmaker. Marner can be the goal scorer. Like he doesn't always have to look for Matthews. And the thing, it's funny because the two can go hand in hand. Matthews isn't scoring.
Starting point is 00:16:24 So Mitch might feel like, oh, I got to get it to him. I got to get it to him because he's got to score. Meanwhile, it's like, you can do it yourself too in certain situations, right? You don't always have to just force feed everything to him. Right. Well, he's more than capable of doing it. You look back, game one, yeah, game one against Ottawa where he broke loose. Matthews was the playmaker. Made a beautiful pass. Mitch scores. It's 2-0.
Starting point is 00:16:49 The building's going crazy. You know, like there's opportunities to break loose. They've had breakaways every single game. It's about capitalizing on them and who's the one with the puck on his stick. Frankie Carrotto with us in studio. Do you think any of the teams that are currently down 3-1? Because the other series? They're they're starting to run away. I mean Winnipeg's down 3-1
Starting point is 00:17:10 Washington down 3-1 Vegas down 3-1 any of them you think have the capability of pushing it to 7 not necessarily winning the series But winning the next two games to stay alive I mean, I think that the Jets one is is tough because they have such a hard time on the road. Yeah, they might win game five handily. You know, and then and then so they win game five at home. Sure. Then you go back into Dallas, your goaltender hasn't played particularly well on the road as a team. Like they haven't had much success there. So that that one seems hard. I think if if Aiden Hill can put it together for a couple games, then they would have a chance just but then you know
Starting point is 00:17:46 I just did I not read today that mark stone is out Yeah, so that is bang up not gonna help them and Edmonton like Edmonton's the best version of themselves right now Because they're getting it from everyone they can have the Henrique game They can have the Connor Brown game and they're you know, they're they're just they're playing well as a team And the other one I I think the Carolina Washington, there's no room for Washington. There's no room. Isn't that a weird series?
Starting point is 00:18:15 Isn't it weird games to watch? They are weird games to watch. And you know what is interesting? If you guys have watched Spencer Carberry, whether it's in the morning or after games, not a lot of coaches talk about puck touches in their post-game availability, but he says it a lot. And even sometimes if they go in the dressing room, his 45 second to minute speech before,
Starting point is 00:18:36 let's make sure our puck touches are clean, puck touches. Puck touches aren't available to you against Carolina. You're not gonna be clean in those situations as much. And I feel like they're a team that values possession and making nice plays. Credit to Carolina, they've just, they've suffocated that out of their game, it feels like.
Starting point is 00:18:56 It's impressive. Especially, we talked a lot about Washington, how big they are, and what they did to Montreal. They just kinda bullied Montreal around and they got in on the forecheck and they made them uncomfortable and they forced their defense into mistakes and then all hell was breaking loose. Carolina just doesn't allow for that to happen you know the way they defend the way they transition out of the zone they got big veteran defensemen they're like come get some you want a piece come get it. In years past Carolina has missed like that one
Starting point is 00:19:23 offensive guy that really goes off and this year Svechnikov No is all the sudden going off where he's got a goal and well One less goal than games played for him. I can't remember the numbers, but yeah, like he's only played nine, right? Yeah, he's got eight goals. I guess yeah, Svechnikov is is kind of doing that right now Yeah, so it's the little different there as well and taylor hall found one the other night like you know you're getting you forget the taylor hall's there you know you forget that i had to extend to know that i don't know if you are
Starting point is 00:19:54 there is played well there like they there are a team that you know isn't as sexy but they're really well-rounded that's the the best they'll answer your question the long-winded way of saying i i don't believe any of those series will go seven based on where they're at now. 3-1 is tough, man. Yeah, it really is. It's a big hill to climb, man. Like you need your goalie to be the best player at that point. Ultimately because you just you can't allow bad breaks. You can't recover from. You can't recover from anything.
Starting point is 00:20:25 And you know it mentally, like your back is up against the wall. Yeah. So if I had to hedge, the best chance would be Winnipeg out of those three. But I mean, then you're saying Jake Ottinger is going to have to play poorly for three games. Although that's just not really in the cards.
Starting point is 00:20:43 The flip side of that is in Edmonton like a skinner tonight after a very good game goes you know what i'm gonna revert back to the old game one and game two l.a. stu skinner and all bets are off his pickered it doesn't sound as if he's available on the answer that sounded like yeah it sounded like he's a week so i don't know that that puts you into next week type of thing so the third round probably. Yeah, you might be looking at the conference final at that point. Yeah, that'll be a wild story though. Like if and when they get there and if they can sit tight for a bit and get them some time but
Starting point is 00:21:13 Skinner closes the deal tonight and plays well. Then I think it's Skinner's net. You think they really stay with Skinner? You think they'll stay with Skinner just give them the benefit of the doubt. It was a little blip. I don't think it's the benefit of the doubt. I think it's, hey, we need two goaltenders to get this done. And it's Skinner with, like, now you look at it as a tandem instead of a starter and a backup. That's the way I would look at it. But again, Skinner's got to close the deal out
Starting point is 00:21:39 and then give Pickard time to get healthy. And then you look at it and go, OK, let's see how this unfolds. We can have two goalies that we trust. Keep in mind like Calvin Pickard doesn't have a long history of playing deep in the playoffs or starting or any of these types of things. A lot like Anthony Stoller's, a lot like Joseph Wall. They're just still going through the process right now. Yeah, yeah Pickard's 6-0 but what if a week off his mojo kind of is a little messed with. Now he's not in a groove. Now you've got to chase your game a little bit. So I
Starting point is 00:22:14 think if Skinner can finish this series off for them, I do think he gets his net back with a very short leash. That's what I would say. We get into the conference final. Let's say you play Dallas, you what i'm yeah it's like one a b we get into the the conference final let's say you play dallas you lose game one it's pickered back in like it can't be a two game thing yeah i think it's i think it's a tandem situation and you go with who you feel can can get to their game but we'll see i mean yes it's no mark stone but you know they're all teams are playing banged up a little bit like you can't tell me Chris Tannib's not banged up. Man the guy's been hit more than anybody else in the league by
Starting point is 00:22:50 a mile and no one's even close. And he's a guy that is an absolute warrior but I would there was one hit where I thought he wasn't coming back like he's had shoulder issues and stuff and I I thought he got hit really hard. Yeah, but he's out there He's a lawyer man. Well, that's see that is the amazing thing like there's no discussion of them changing up their defense or the pairings Yeah, that mallet like nor nor should they but I'm just saying like we're ten games into the playoffs And you know in past years someone was coming in or coming out or it was all right You got to flip this pairing or someone's got to play with somebody else like that is something that he is not deviated from nor should he again but you got McCabe and Tanev you're going to have Carlo and Riley and you're going to have Benoit and Ekman Larsen
Starting point is 00:23:35 and that's the way it's going to go and they're all going to play about the same minutes. Oh that's it that's a credit to Tree Living and the fact that they've built this decor now this. It's the best version that they've had over the nine years. And that's what gives me confidence for them. You know, tonight in this mini two out of three series, yes, a lot of focus on Matthews and Marner and Willie and all those guys and that's natural. But if Wall can play well slash very good, I trust the way they defend. I trust their defense. I trust the size. I trust the way they defend. I trust their defense. I trust the size. I trust the way that they've they've had the ability to push pucks outside, block shots, defend, hit, be physical. That's got to continue, but it's gonna be
Starting point is 00:24:14 challenging for Florida, man. We've laid it out on what the Leafs have to do. The Panthers have to deal with the same thing. Like, they got to break through. Let me ask you something. Do you think Aust Austin Matthews scores before you get into the building tonight? I'm going to say no, but he's got about seven or eight minutes of live act of like game action to do it. Yeah, because against Ottawa game six again, every game is different. But remember he scored not only did he score, he scored on the powerplay and there were a lot of issues with the powerplay in the
Starting point is 00:24:44 previous few games. Powerplay play and there were a lot of issues with the power play in the previous few games Power play goal Matthews checks a lot of boxing check check check check play with the lead which again is incredibly important Yeah, you got to get game five tonight man I get some must win I think for the if they if they win game five and Austin Matthews does not score I will be flabbergasted. Yeah. I will. Yeah. I'll be shocked. I would, I would, I would apply that to one of him or Marner. Like one of them has to score a goal tonight for them to win the game. I would agree with that. I don't see one nothing Joseph Wall stands on his head. Jake McCabe sneaks one in, you know, I just. Yeah, one nothing, two one, where like
Starting point is 00:25:25 Pontus Holmberg and Domi score and like you hold off the cats like a Lundell goal. I don't know. I don't know if that's in the card. Seems like a four-two win. Matthews has one. Marner has one and Nye scores an empty netter to close it. All right, we started without a feeling of how it's going to play out. I think we just landed on it. We talked ourselves into it. Talked ourselves into exactly how it's going to play. You don't even have to watch tonight. Just listen on TSN Radio. Leafs Panthers game five. Alright Frankie we'll catch you on the panel tonight. Hey boys enjoy the game. You got it. There's Frankie Carrotto our TSN hockey analyst.
Starting point is 00:25:56 Mark Masters from the rink and our best bets still to come. Overdrive continues TSN 1050 and on TSN 2. Alright we'll get to our best bets powered of it and a little bit later in the hour get the lease in action tonight at the blue jays in action tonight at nba playoffs to get the p g a start tomorrow coverage of the p g a championship on overdrive brought to you by subaru we made our picks earlier all of the maples taken three guys at a time
Starting point is 00:26:22 back and he wants to trade i couldn't keep track it's impossible to i'm involved and i don't know what just happened and i i know i've got shephler i've got thomas i've got connors and uh... will figure out the rest but uh... it's obviously a great field quail hollows get for first by some of the competitors in terms of how they're speaking of it but it's a beautiful course beautiful looking course be a great crowd
Starting point is 00:26:46 get coverage of the PGA championship on overdrive brought to you by Subaru hurry to the all in one event for great offers and experience all the features that come standard in a Subaru get to our best bets later in the hour but we're about a half an hour away from puck drop let's head down to the rink here's Mark Masters our TSN Maple Leaf reporter away from pot drop let's head down to the rank is mark masters rts and may believe reporter kind atmosphere expecting tonight mark yeah i mean a great one
Starting point is 00:27:10 familiar games one and two i think you know i would be in incumbent on the leafing off to the start night and trying capitalize on that because it's one of those games where they they don't look at all of you can certainly imagine getting a little and nervous around here so obviously it could gonna be great to start this game and let's see where it goes from there Masters any roster changes you anticipate? Yeah, we're expecting David Camp and Mick Robertson to come in. It sounds like Holmberg and Yard croak would be the odd man out
Starting point is 00:27:40 Warm-ups about to start so we'll get final confirmation on that shortly but that's what we're expecting from the Leafs side and then on the Florida side we already know Evan Rodriguez is out. Jesper Bokesmith draws in for them tonight. So if that is the case like Jarncrook has been playing on the right side kills some penalties but if Holmberg comes out he'll play center he'll play the wing like Camp is predominantly a centerman do you see what happens here does Lotton stay in the middle of the ice does Domi stay in the middle of the ice what do you think
Starting point is 00:28:12 they're gonna do if Camp goes in? Yeah I think Camp would go in the middle because that's where we've seen him consistently Lotton goes out to the left wing maybe and Lorenz stays on goes to the right goes to the right side there maybe and then you know you see Domi between Bobby McMahon and Nick Robertson. And that line has been really good at times for the Leafs. At least it gives that line an identity, a chance to be a very offensively dangerous line. And obviously with the last change advantage at home, Craig Groove can make sure that they're as much as he can that they're not caught in tough situations and trying to shelter that group as much as
Starting point is 00:28:49 possible. Mark, you're around the team a lot. What was the mood this morning? I know it's optional, but, you know, did you get a sense from the guy's calmness or a little bit of nerves or what did you make? Yeah, I think pretty calm, all things considered. I think they're in a good space. Two days off probably helped them a little bit more than if it had just been ding
Starting point is 00:29:08 bang, boom, coming off of the long travel day from Florida. So yeah, I mean, I liked it. We heard from John Tavares, we heard from Jake McKay this morning. Craig Brubay is always pretty much the same. So it seems like they're in the right frame of mind to use Brubay's words heading into this really, really important game to say the least. In terms of focusing more on two players that we've talked about a lot the last couple of days, that would be Matthews and Marner, you know, noodles asked about the whole team and
Starting point is 00:29:37 the way that they're feeling. How would you define the general mood attitude approach to what is a massive game tonight for Mitchitch marner and austin matthews in particular yeah i mean that you can get harder to read at times but what we know is that the acknowledged the daddy feeling statement
Starting point is 00:29:55 that he needs to bear down more on his chances about it because the government is to let you know where he's at like he's acknowledging that you know he's got to do a little bit more. And Mitch Marner yesterday asked him about his game and he gave a one word answer, which was fine. And then I followed up and just said, you know, what can you do to get some more shots?
Starting point is 00:30:14 You know, two games without a shot. And he went into just talking about how he's oftentimes looking to shoot for six and you know, the guy, you know, the Panthers have done a good job blocking shots. Yeah, I think that you've seen from Matthews, you know, the Panthers have done a good job blocking shots Yeah, I think that you you you've seen from Matthews, you know and understanding that there's more there and from Marner you know I think he's down he knows that there's another level and you'll be intriguing because you know They they won the matchup against Alexander Barkov's line at home in the first two games of the series
Starting point is 00:30:41 Of course Marner scored the game winner in game two and set up the game winner in Game one by Matthew Nyes on that breakaway And then they go to Florida and you think you know Suddenly they're playing the Anton Don Lundell line, and you think it might be easier, but it wasn't the case So it goes back to Barkov tonight for whatever reason that's helped the lead and we'll see if going up against the pair of selkie Trophy nominees and Barkov and Reinhardt can help Matthews and Marner elevate in this one. Joseph Wallace spoken pretty much every day. What do you make of his demeanor?
Starting point is 00:31:14 And really there's a lot of pressure on him to help try and deliver a huge win here on home ice. I mean that was such an important performance for him in game four just to bounce back after a leaky one in game three. Obviously his mom was in the building, siblings, really special in game four even without the wing to perform well in that in that moment and just get back on track get his confidence kind of going here. Again just like Stolarz he's not used to all these games in a row high leverage pressure games in a row fifth straight leverage, pressure game in a row, fifth straight, you know, game here tonight, fourth straight start. You know, he hasn't done that since Solars was out with the injury early in the year.
Starting point is 00:31:50 So there's a lot being asked of him. I thought he responded well. I thought he was really relaxed in his media session yesterday, talking about how it's good to be nervous. A little bit of fear is a good thing. You know, it means you care. It means that you're playing for something big. So I think he's in a good spot. And hopefully,'s in the Leafs he can build on what he did in
Starting point is 00:32:07 game four because that was the biggest positive. With Mark Masters, Leafs Panthers game five right here on TSM radio. It sounds as if Camp and Robertson are out there for warmups and Holmberg and Yarncrook are not. So there's our answer. Those two going in, those two coming out. We keep talking about big moments, legacy moments, and how this is exciting. This is a great opportunity for all these players. It's a big moment for Craig Baruba as well. His coaching career, he's obviously got the cup. He's done a great job this year.
Starting point is 00:32:40 They won the division. That rarely happens with this team. He's compared to the likes of Pat Quinn and Pat Burns and others in terms of his demeanor his approach are you surprised at all that he decided to change the lineup and if so how much more change might you expect do you think it could lead to to Matthews and Marner being split up at times could Nylander get shifts with different lines what would you expect to see out of Craig Barube this evening well that's the question is if it doesn't start well here does he you know we saw a couple of shifts where Matthew Demarner was split up down in Florida at the start of
Starting point is 00:33:14 the third period in game four and the question is if things don't start well you know when does he do that right you've got to get these guys going and he's Heather he listen he he puts the right button for most of this season. He's kept everyone calm. You know, he's kind of found a way to make jokes, make light of things when, you know, he's asked about William Nylander and he'll quickly say, you know, this guy doesn't listen to me. He's not listening to anything.
Starting point is 00:33:38 I leave him alone. So he seems to have a good pulse of things. And I'm with you. Like this might be their best shot right now for Craig Broom. It's your first year. The message is fresh. If you win this series, you're the favorite in the Eastern Finals.
Starting point is 00:33:50 It's all kind of laid out there. If you can push the right buttons down the stretch in this series. Again, these are moments where this is why he was brought in. When you talk, we always talk about the top four. Is there anybody that you would circle that I would say Unsuspecting that you would want to see a big game out of and you know, is that Bobby McMahon? Is it somebody like that? Is it Max Domi?
Starting point is 00:34:15 He's something out of the bottom six anyone to step up. I mean again, you know, I mentioned Domi McMahon Robertson that line It's been good. It's been good at times offensively especially. Ken Robertson who's scored in three different games where he's come off healthy scratch, do it again. Ken Mcmahon snapped this crazy 21 game throughout without a goal for a 20 goal score. That's, you know, I was interested. He didn't skate this morning.
Starting point is 00:34:39 He almost always skates. So I wonder if he's trying to change something there. Trying to just change his luck in some way He's got to be in his head so much remember He's the only playoff rookie on this team and it hasn't been an easy transition So if they could just get something out of the bottom six anything anyone a Scott Latton moment even Lorenz moment something David Camp his first team since April 2nd if they can just get something from the bottom six that will go such a long way to
Starting point is 00:35:03 first game since April 2nd if they can just get something from the bottom six that will go such a long way to alleviating the pressure so obviously you can talk about the big boys and they got it produced but if they can just get something because you know the Anton Lundell line Brad Marchand they're gonna be coming tonight they were really good in Toronto in the first two games at least just they need something out of their bottom six yep that's exactly it well we're gonna find out puck drop in about half an hour. I'll see you down there, Mark. Save my seat, please. Save my seat. I'm on my way down. It doesn't even say your name, it just says reserve. I like that. Okay. Who's reserved? The photojournalists kind of want to
Starting point is 00:35:35 get there. I'm like, no, no, no. No, no, no. I'm saving it for you. Thank you. Put your jacket up, do something. Have Jonah sit there for a while. Do something, please. I'm on my way my way we will protect it we have it ready for you when you get here thank you Masters appreciate it we'll see you tonight thank you buddy yeah there he is Mark Masters yeah I don't even get it I don't even get a play card down there like no name no nothing just reserved well they're not sure if you're coming I know that's a big part of it I understand that but what about come on our ice cream tonight well this is what's concerning, man. I've been eating so much pizza lately. Just it's just one of those things like whenever I'm down at the rink, we've been out a lot. There's been a lot
Starting point is 00:36:13 of kind of on the go stuff. That's what it is. It's easy. It's convenient. It's right there. It's very seductive. Yes. Right. If you have a growl on and there's a pizza staring at you it's impossible to fight that off they're great so there's a very good chance my expected slice per game is like through the roof and I think that's gonna probably happening in tonight I haven't hit the ice cream once never yeah I've been going down there for for a long time I've never opened that fridge I might I might take a look tonight dab The tab man usually has a fort built around it. He'll have 15 on on reserve waiting for him. My fear is I get after it and there's like a spill even with pizza that can apply to right you get a bad pizza spill
Starting point is 00:36:59 you're toast. It's not good. Yeah it's not good. Yeah it's not good. All right we'll come back Mike Kelly our a good friend mike kelly from uh... sports logic he just we did not something very interesting in terms of austin matthews the maddow goals he scores the expected goals the differential regular season compared to the playoffs will touch on that will get to our best bets and will tee up the game one more time before we turn it over to joe bone and jimmy ralph with the call tonight in just over twenty minutes overdrive continues PSN 1050 and on TSN to all right best bets powered by
Starting point is 00:37:32 FanDuel make your picks in a similar same game parlay in seconds on the Fandirl sportsbook Yeah, I'm gonna take the Leafs on the puck line tonight. I think it's a close game. I could see a I could see a game I think the Leafs are gonna win. I have that feeling tonight But I think if it doesn't happen for them I think they show up and play I think it's a good game a close game all these games have been good close games Leafs puck line Austin Matthews scores a goal tonight Mitch Marner to register a point tonight that parlay pan plus 31 so it's a very positive leafy parlay but that's where I'm at going into game five. And Matthew's and his goal scoring, you know, has been a topic of discussion a lot in the
Starting point is 00:38:10 playoffs. And I think it's completely justified. I don't think it's being overblown to any extent because of who he is and what he's capable of doing. Right. The guy, the guy wins rocket after rocket after rocket. He's won. He had 69 goals a year ago. Everything else is great it's not about everything else but about winning shifts it's not that's not you know that i'm not taking that away from them myself included it's that okay you get
Starting point is 00:38:34 no goals left in the series for yet the series you didn't score gets four to two years ago you find a way to break loose break through here and mike kelly uh... sports logic to read this out that in the regular season, Austin Matthews has 401 career goals, his expected goals are 318.7. So in other words, he has a plus 82.3 goal differential. He has scored more
Starting point is 00:38:58 goals than what the analytics would suggest were expected goals. Right. Right. And expected goals are based on, you know, data, historical data of players in a similar situation, the likelihood of them scoring in that scenario, where they are on the ice, all that kind of stuff. There's a number of details that go into it. Right. In the playoffs, he's got 25 total playoff goals. He has created 28.7 expected goals that is a minus 3.7 goal differential. So you know he scores at a ridiculous rate and creates at a ridiculous rate even above and beyond what you would think he would in the regular season and it's the
Starting point is 00:39:39 opposite in the playoffs. Yeah and you could also factor in, like, you know, expected goals. Like, he's above it massively in the regular season, which is, you can also go, the goaltender didn't allow a great goal. Like, remember, he just throws some ones from the goal line and it goes in. Like, that would hurt the goaltender's number, but not his. That wouldn't be an expected goal, but he scores. In the playoffs, he hasn't had the puck luck as well right it's minus three point seven yet he should actually have twenty nine goals will call it round up
Starting point is 00:40:11 he's only got twenty five so you know maybe hits a post and it stays out misses the net on a play or the goaltender robs him and makes a great save it's you know the numbers are quite telling but you could tie it to a lot of different factors for sure in the playoffs It's more difficult. It's tighter. They go. You're playing a number one goalie who's on rest who's ready to play There's no scheduled losses or anything like that Agreed yeah, I mean obviously it's going to be difficult in the playoffs. It's more difficult in the playoffs that is that is Understood and that goes without saying
Starting point is 00:40:50 but go in the playoffs. That is that is understood and that goes without saying. But this is it man. I have said it so many times over the last two or three days. I'm excited for the game tonight. I think everybody's excited. I think there's gonna be nervous energy for sure. But this is what athletes they always say they dream of right? This is in game seven of the cup final. It's not to that extreme. But you got a best two out of three against a very formidable opponent you're on home ice for two of them this is all you can ask for you know it's it's Rory McIlroy going back to 18 to play the playoff like this is if I had it told you before the season started you're tied 2-2 best two out of three second round against Florida you're taking that every single day of the week well sure right so go out and own it you
Starting point is 00:41:24 got to go own it and this is a game that no one's going to forget Positively or negatively game five against the Panthers will be referenced in five years six years seven years eight years It's a big game and it's gonna be even bigger on Friday possibly even bigger on Sunday if it gets there But you got to cross this bridge first game five tonight. Yeah, it's a way for this game. It's gonna be a great game tonight It's exciting and you know what? We'll see how it starts see how the atmosphere in the building is You know see if there's a response from some of the players who didn't have great games You know see what the goaltenders look like to camp going in right camp and Robertson going in
Starting point is 00:42:00 Yep, some lineup changes some lineup tweaks Rodriguez out. out. Yeah. That's a, you know, he's a good player. He hasn't been a, yeah, he's a very good player. He hasn't been a huge factor in the series so far. He's actually taking some massive blows. They're probably, they're probably like, you've got to shut this down, you know what I mean? He got an embellishment for getting hit from behind. Yeah. And he had to leave the game there for a bit. And then last game. Beckman-Larson buried him. Yeah was a dangerous hit that was that was interference yeah that was it was that was interference yeah you go they like that was pretty and that's a former teammate too like that's the other thing he's like that's you know and he did bury him and it was kind of well it was a gray area hit I mean I wasn't there I
Starting point is 00:42:42 mean they called five and then rescinded it which I think was right because he didn't get his head or anything like that No, that was a classic interference. There's no disputing now. Yeah All right. Wish me luck on the way down. I can't wait to get down there It's gonna be a blast. Thanks to everyone behind the scenes for helping out today We appreciate it everyone for tuning in today TV radio podcast web. We appreciate that We're out of here. Enjoy your evenings. Enjoy the games that. We're out of here enjoy your evenings enjoy the games tonight we're back tomorrow at 4 p.m. we'll chat then. Introducing Bryan Adams radio. On I Heart Radio. Hosted by Bryan Adams himself. Join me for an insider look on a wild ride through 40 years of global rock and roll.
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