OverDrive - Palmer on Allen's MVP season, the Bills' large opportunity and Williams' issues in Chicago

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

TSN NFL Analyst Jesse Palmer joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NFL, Patrick Mahomes playing through his injury, Josh Allen's MVP season and the Bills' opportunity in the playoffs, Caleb Williams' rough run in Chicago and more.

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Own your home, need a loan? Alpine Credits can help. Alpine Credits, where homeowners get approved. Just for license 12-616. Here's TSN NFL analyst Jesse Palmer joining us back on Overdrive. Where do you stand on that, Jesse? Let's say the Jets decide, Aaron, we're going a separate way. We don't want you to be a Jet anymore.

If he decides he still wants to play, do you think there would be a market for him in the NFL next season? I think so. I mean, just based on what he's accomplished and what I think he still has left. Obviously, he hasn't played great this year. You guys were just touching on it, though. I mean, a lot has gone wrong around him as well.

But because he is Aaron Rodgers, I absolutely think there would be a market for him somewhere else. And I think that's either a team that feels like the Jets thought this year going in, like they were just one piece short at the quarterback position, or it might be a team that is getting set to draft the quarterback early in the first round and just wants him to sort of be there as a guide and someone that can kind of demonstrate what it takes at the position to succeed. Whether or not the Raiders would entertain that, whether or not the Giants would entertain that, I don't know.

But I think those are the two likely scenarios for a landing spot if he were to move after this season. We were talking about Patrick Mahomes before you came on and the high ankle sprain. I guess he was a full participant in practice today and he said if he can play, he will play. And Andy Reid said the same thing. They're not going to hold them out with the anticipation

that they're going to the playoffs and maybe we'll wait for that. What do you make of that messaging, that mentality, the idea that they're 13-1, they've won back-to-back Super Bowls already, they're going for three straight. Mahomes has done it all. He's won it all.

He's made it all. It'd be an easy way out to say, high ankle sprain, I'm sore, I'm not going to play. Yet it sounds as if he wants to, and he likely will. What do you make of that mentality and that approach by Patrick Mahomes? I think he should. I think that's Patrick Mahomes. But you mentioned, I mean,

this is a guy that's played with high ankle sprains before, right? We just saw it last year in the playoff. I mean, beating the Bengals, or a couple years ago, sorry, beating the Bengals and then beating the Eagles with the high ankle sprain and still being able to play at a really high level. I've had multiple high ankle sprains, you know, throughout my career to both ankles, and it's brutal when it's your left ankle, let alone, you know, the right ankle, that's your plant foot.

The one you're pushing out to generate velocity on throws, but he's extremely tough. And, you know, the crazy part about a guy like that is 80% of Patrick Mahomes is still good enough to beat 31 other NFL teams, um, on any given Sunday.

Let's not forget, listen, this playoff race right now. And the race for the one seed and the AFC is crazy right now. I mean, with Buffalo and, you know, and Kansas City's trying to lock that up, and they need Patrick Mahomes to do that, you know, there would be, in my opinion,

a massive drop-off if it's Carson Wentz moving forward, trying to get that race, trying to lock up home field advantage at Arrowhead throughout the rest of the year. So if he is going to go down as one of the greatest of all time, if maybe not the greatest of all time when it's all said and done, who knows? But if Patrick Mahomes goes into Andy Reid's office and says, dude, I'm playing, you're letting him play. You're letting him go, and he's Patrick Mahomes goes into Andy Reid's office and says, dude, I'm playing. You're letting him play.

You're letting him go, and he's the ultimate competitor. He wants to do that, and I think he should be afforded that luxury. Jesse, do you think the Chiefs are maybe – this sounds weird because they have one loss. Do you think they're being slept on a little bit? Because people talk about them, and it's like, well, they're not really winning that great. They don't really have great weapons. But we talked about a lot of the same things last year, and then it's like, why did we ever doubt them? Do you think it's different this year, or is it the same?

No, I think it's the same. I think it's a great point you make. I feel like in the NFL, and maybe we're like this in other leagues too, because we're talking about the NFL, I just feel like we're oftentimes about the flavor of the week each and every week, and I think it's whatever the big story is.

In some weeks, it's Lamar Jackson, it's the Ravens, and are they the team to beat? And then I feel like more recently, it's the Bills. And with good reason. The Bills beat the Chiefs. The Bills just beat Detroit. And we're talking about the Bills now and Josh Allen, MVP, and what it's going to take for them to win the Super Bowl too.

But you're absolutely right. I mean, it's Patrick Mahomes and it's Andy Reid. It's the Chiefs. And they've won two in a row. And, you know, at the end of the day, man, in any pro sport, but certainly in the NFL, who cares how much you win by? As long as you win.

It's hard to win in that league. The league's set up for parity. You think about the salary cap, free agency, the draft, all the things that are in place. I mean, each and every week, it's a struggle, man, no matter what. And so, absolutely. I think we're always sleeping on the Chiefs, to be honest. And we'll probably get to the postseason again,

and we'll probably talk about this again. Well, they're not dominant. They're not doing this. They're not doing that. We talked about it earlier in the year. Mahomes has thrown too many interceptions. Is this sustainable? I mean, when it comes to the playoffs,

and based on what that guy has done, playing on the road like he did last year, going into hostile environments at Buffalo, at Baltimore, and winning those games against those quarterbacks, absolutely we're sleeping on them. This is still, you know, to be the best, you've got to beat the best. And this is still, based on what we've seen the last two seasons, this is still the best team in the league.

With Jesse Palmer. So you look at the other teams within the conference that will be, you know, chasing them down. The Bills obviously are right on their heels at this point. Josh Allen, it seems like a borderline lock he's going to win the MVP. Is he playing at a level that would suggest, that would make you feel better about their chances of beating the Chiefs? With everything you just said, and the title that the Chiefs have earned,

like they're the champs, they're the best, you've got to beat them. Whether it's at Arrowhead, in Buffalo, wherever it's going to be, neutral site, it doesn't matter. But have you seen enough out of Allen that would make you believe, for whatever reason, he's more primed to do it this year than past years? Yes. I think the only way you beat the Chiefs in the postseason, and the key here is the postseason, the only way you beat that guy, Mahomes, in the playoffs is with a quarterback who's playing at an equal or higher level,

and Josh Allen is doing that. All season long, especially these last four games, that dude, Josh Allen, is just on a completely different level. There's not a D coordinator in the league right now that has an answer for him and what he's doing. Throwing, running. He said after their win against Detroit, he goes, actually, one of our best plays right now is the scramble drill,

which is crazy. But when things go off script, the statistics and percentages show you that completion percentages go down and interceptions go up. That's not the case with Josh Allen right now. It's like backyard sandlot football, and it's always working. It's absolutely crazy. And we always talk about defense wins championships. That would worry you a lot right now if you're the Buffalo Bills.

And I think they're the only team in NFL history outside of the 1966 Giants where they've scored at least 40 in the last two games and also allowed at least 40 in the last two games. But when you have Josh Allen, I mean, I think anything's possible. Now it's a lot of pressure on him. You're asking a lot of him to have to keep playing at this level. But yes, based on everything we've seen this season, and especially in recent weeks, Buffalo absolutely could beat the Chiefs.

They could do it at home. I think they could do it on the road. But I'll repeat this. It's a very, very different thing to beat Mahomes in the postseason versus in the regular season. Obviously, everyone wants to win the regular season game too, but Mahomes just has a thing about him. It's kind of Jordan-esque, whatever that is, in the postseason where he elevates

and he elevates everybody around him and he doesn't have to be 100% to do it. Again, 80% of Patrick Mahomes can beat 31 other NFL teams, especially in the postseason. So yes, I think the Bills are the team to do it, but it's all because of Josh Allen. What do you think has changed with Allen? Because everybody talks about ball security. I'm just looking at the picks. He had 18 picks last year. This year, five. What changes?

Well, obviously, his decision making has gotten a lot better, but I think we've got to give Joe Brady, their offensive coordinator, a ton of credit too. And play calling. It was a master class this past weekend especially against Detroit. But all throughout the year, Joe Brady and Josh Allen

are so in sync right now. And I've talked about this a lot before. I've been really lucky throughout my career to play for great play callers offensively. Steve Spurrier in college, Sean Payton with the New York Giants, Mike McCarthy, North Turner with the 49ers. And all of them were great throughout the week leading up to the game in terms of putting a lot of really, really good plays

for a lot of different down and distances and situations on their play card and then laminating it and then taking it into the game on Sunday. But the best ones on game day are the ones that see the game and they react and they're not afraid to go off script and they set things up and there's a rhythm and there's a cadence. And the quarterback knows what the play call is going to be, literally each and every down and distance based on their relationship and what they've done together throughout the season what they did throughout the week of practice

and joe brady right now has such a great feel i think for josh allen and all the different concepts in the run game and the past game and the rpo game um where he's just it's like he's playing he's playing chess and everybody else are playing checkers. They're just on a different level right now. He deserves a lot of credit. Josh Allen deserves the majority of it, obviously. But, I mean, he's being set up, I think, to succeed as well. Because Joe Brady right now, man, he's dialing it up beautifully each and every week.

How much of it is that Stephon Diggs isn't around anymore and Allen doesn't feel like he's got to force it to him, or Brady for that matter, find a route, find some touches for him that forces plays as opposed to finding plays organically throughout the game? I think it's a great point. It's a great question too, honestly, because I think when you have a guy like Stephon Diggs, oftentimes as a play caller, we're just talking about Joe Brady,

you feel like you have to guy like Stephon Diggs, oftentimes as a play caller, we're just talking about Joe Brady, it's just you feel like you have to design things for that guy specifically. And talking to coaches, you know, for 18 years now and obviously playing, I know that every week there's a lot of coaches that feel like, you know, I have to get Stephon Diggs X amount of touches in this game. I've got to find a way. I remember Sean Payton, we used to try to get Jeremy Shockey the ball X amount of times in the first 10 plays of the game. We've got to get Jeremy going.

We've got to get him going early. He plays better if you get him touches early. I'm going to formate this. We're going to throw him a screen. We're going to get him lined up one-on-one. I'm going to line him up to split end position in the boundary and just let him work on his safety. We're just going to get the guy involved in the game.

And I think sometimes there may have been a little bit of that with Stephon Diggs. It's a luxury in a lot of ways sometimes when you don't have a guy like that. And you can just say, hey, man, we're just going to call these plays. And the coverage is just simply going to dictate who gets the ball. And for Josh Allen, I don't need you to force it to this guy if it's not there. This guy in particular isn't always going to be your primary read. Just literally drop back, see what the defense is giving you, and react accordingly.

And we feel like we've got a lot of weapons and a lot of different answers on each and every play and guys that can win one-on-one on any given coverage, on any given blitz. And I think that's what the Bills have right now. There's a freedom, I think, that comes with that a little bit as a quarterback and as a play caller, too. With Jesse Palmer. So maybe you're already here.

Maybe you'll never get here. But at what point would you start to be concerned about Caleb Williams in the NFL as a Chicago Bear? So I'd be concerned now if I were the Chicago Bears. And I'd be concerned a little bit too, I think, if I was Caleb Williams, because I don't know

how much I've really grown in my rookie year. I'm not sure how much I've developed. This was my biggest concern about Caleb Williams coming into the league, is that so much of his success at Oklahoma and then at USC was scramble plays. And it was when things would break down and Caleb Williams is just the best athlete on the field and nobody can tackle him and he can run around and he doesn't have to play with instruction. Well, that goes away in the National Football League.

shirt. Well, that goes away in the National Football League. And we've seen a lot of quarterbacks that sort of had those abilities in college, and they struggle at the next level until they learn you've got to play on time. You just have to play on time. Justin Fields was so good off schedule at Ohio State. And then in the National Football League, league you know for a guy that that has to see things open that doesn't always anticipate throws you know it's a lot more difficult you have to learn to trust receivers are going to be in areas and you have to throw before they get out of breaks you can't make every free blitz or miss you just can't do it not not at that level and so whoever the next play caller is in chic long-term for Caleb Williams and his development, I mean, he really needs to get with Caleb.

And they have to understand, look, dude, you've got to know when plays are dead. Funks are okay in this league, but we can't be taking ridiculous sacks. And, you know, our receivers don't want to run around for 15 seconds every single play waiting for you to roll out right, roll out left, break contain, and then hit a dude downfield. Everybody loves highlight plays. We all love that. But, you know, it's like a UFC fighter.

Like, you know, coaches tell their quarterbacks sometimes, you have to know when to tap out sometimes, right? And there's times, you know, there's something Bo Nix went through in college is he used to always try to scramble all the time at Auburn on first and second down. And then he got with a coach, Kenny Dillingham, finally at Oregon, who said, man, if you want to do that on third down, fine.

But we can't be just getting crazy on first and second down because bad things happen. All of a sudden it's second 17 or it's third and 26. And I don't have any play calls for that. And so it's a mentality more than it is anything else. Caleb Williams, when he plays on time, is remarkably good.

He's accurate. He looks so good when he just takes his steps, he hitches, and the ball goes where it needs to go. But this has been obviously a massive learning experience for him this year. The potential is absolutely there. In my opinion, coming out, comparing Justin Fields and Caleb Williams, it's not even close. I think Caleb Williams is far and away a more pure passer, but he just needs someone to really reach him and say, listen, dude, in this league, things have to happen on time.

It's the only way you succeed consistently. Well, connected to that, Jesse, is there any kind of lesson teams should take from Sam In this league, things have to happen on time. It's the only way you succeed consistently. Well, connected to that, Jesse, is there any kind of lesson teams should take from Sam Darnold and what's happened this year where it's like he bounces around for a while and it's like, oh, man, he's 27 and now he's good? I don't know. Is there anything teams could take from that in terms of developing quarterbacks like Williams?

I think they already know. I think it's not just teams, but I think it's quarterbacks too. It's just the situation and the timing is so critical and it's so important. And there are a lot of really talented young quarterbacks that get drafted to bad situations and they never get an opportunity to succeed. It's not like Sam Darnold, you know, is all of a sudden just a much better player. He's always had talent. He's always had that. But I think the situations that he's been in early in his career,

the Jets moving around, it just hasn't afforded him that. But you go to a place like Minnesota, and all of a sudden, you're throwing to Jefferson, you're throwing to Addison, you have an outstanding play caller and your head coach, and it's a division that just everything sort of lines up for him. That's the lesson to me, and I give Sam Darnold a ton of credit too because there are a lot of young quarterbacks that go through what he went through and have the struggles he did, and they lose confidence,

and they're never able to rebound. But I think he's the guy that always believed in himself, and his story this year has just been remarkable. It's a good lesson for other teams out there. I think that's why you oftentimes see teams willing to take chances and trade up. Trey Lance is an example of that. There are teams that always believed he still had that magic and that ability

and what they saw when he was coming out of college, and they're willing to try to give him an opportunity. Now, whether he gets that or not, you don't know. Obviously, what happened with J.J. McCarthy early in the season, nobody expected to happen. But good for Sam Darnold and good for the Vikings for pairing up the way they have. That's been one of the best stories in the league this year. With Jesse Palmer, I want to get you out of here on a college story,

a couple of them quickly. I know you cover it very closely for ESPN. Obviously, we had the Belichick news last week going to North Carolina, and it has become official, I think, this hour. Michael Vick is the new head coach at Norfolk State. Mike Vick is the head coach

at Norfolk State, Belichick at North Carolina. What do you make of these massive names in the NFL, Belichick in particular, but Mike Vick, we know who he is and what he is and what he's done throughout his career. He's been an NFL analyst with Fox now for a number of years, and he's

stepping in. No coaching history to my knowledge and taking over a program in Norfolk State. What do you make of that news and what's going on with college football right now? Yeah, I think these are obviously splash hires, and you and I are talking about them, right? In Canada, we're talking about it.

Right, exactly. So, I mean, it's obviously stretching far and wide. I think that's exactly the point on both of these hires. Obviously, with Belichick, that one's a little bit more obvious, obviously, with his success in the NFL. It's all about, you know, I think these programs, how do we bring in the best talent possible? Because at the end of the day, especially in college, the talent, it's not the X's and O's.

It's the Jimmy's and the Joe's, right? It's who can you get in the door. And we're in an era of college football now where it's, I mean, it's becoming less and less about high school recruiting and developing. It's becoming just as much about the portal and NIL deals. And it's free agency in college football. and NIL deals, and it's free agency in college football. And, you know, Bill Belichick has his press conference and says, our school is going to be a pipeline to the NFL for the players that are good enough to play at the next level. I mean, bells and whistles are going off for high school kids and college players around the country that want to go play for a guy like that. For Mike

Vick, to me, that resembles a little bit more closely, I think, what we saw with Deion Sanders. And, you know, a guy that is just, you know, just galvanizes people and teams and talent just based on who he is, what he meant to that area. He grew up really close to North Polk State. He knows the state. He knows that area. And a guy that, you know, where Deion Sanders, you know,

he had high school coaching experience and all of a sudden found himself at Jackson State, but kids want to go play for him. And kids are going to want to go play for Mike Vick. You know, a lot of kids still know who he is. They remember watching him play growing up. They had his jersey poster on the wall. And so it's, you know, I don't know if Mike Vick can coach, and I don't know if he can call plays.

I don't know if he will. I don't know if he'll just delegate and bring in coordinators and do that. But if Mike Vick calls a kid to come in and play at Norfolk State, the kid is going to pick up. And the kid's going to probably want to come and visit and want to be a part of that. It's exciting. And so the fact that we're all talking about it,

everyone's going to talk about Belichick, but the fact that we're all now talking about Mike Vick and what he's doing there, there was news a few weeks ago that Ray Lewis was in consideration for being the head coach, I think at FAU it was. So it's like it's happening more and more and more. Ed Reed was in conversations, I remember, two years ago to be a head coach as well. I think you're going to see more and more of that happen too.

Yeah, pretty incredible. And these are kind of fringe programs too, right? This isn't Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan we're talking about. This is even Colorado with Dion. They were never a perennial winning program, and look what he's done with them the last couple of years. It's pretty incredible. It's incredible.

Think about it, right? Dion at Jackson State got Travis Hunter to go to school there. And he just won the Heisman. He got the Heisman Trophy. He got that guy to go to Jackson State. Yeah. It's crazy. It is crazy.

It's crazy now, right? It is. It's amazing. It is amazing. It's great catching up with you, Jesse. We appreciate you doing this, man. We'll do it again down the road. You got it, man.

I appreciate you guys. You got it. There's Jesse Palmer of ESPN and TSN NFL Analysts, college analyst as well.