OverDrive - Phillips on Guerrero Jr.'s contract value, the Blue Jays' large offer and Cole's injury outcomes

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around MLB, the Blue Jays' lineup overview and the team going into the season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract value, the Blue Jays' lineup formulation, Gerrit Cole's massive injury and the impact to the AL East and more.

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Bell, getting a new phone just got better. Here's our TSN baseball insider Steve Phillips. Steve, I don't know how you felt about the Yankees coming into spring training, but when you consider the news on Stanton and now the news on Garrett Cole, how does it change your projection for what they might do this season? Yeah, I think it takes them really, I mean throwing Luis Heal as well in there. Remember, he was the guy that saved their season last year,

as much as Aaron Judge was the American League MVP. He wasn't really the MVP of the Yankees. I think you could make a case that despite Soto having a great year and Judge having a great year, Luis Hill saved their season. That when Garrett Cole went down for the first two plus months of the season, it was a rookie starting pitcher, Luis Hill, who saved their year. That he pitched like Garrett Cole and really was the one who got them through the first couple months until Cole came back. And now he's out with a lat strain potentially for a couple months. So they've lost two key parts of that rotation to where Marcus Stroman, who was whining that

he wanted to be traded and wasn't happy, is now their number four starter. Will Warren, who was a guy that was going to start the year in AAA, is now their number five starter. And Max Freed, who was added in the offseason, they didn't get one solo, moves now the number five starter and and uh... no max free to that in the office in the in get one so to boost the number one spot the rotation and and they're gonna have to you know mix of math and pieces together i thought the a keys to the red sox with their the class of the east and in right now i think red sox of the best team in the

east uh... in the a keys will have to fight for wild card spot right now and so uh... no kill will be back at some point, cold loss for the year, but I have some real questions about how the Yankees are going to score runs, uh, this year. Uh, you know, in 2023, they were 25th and run scored in the American league when they didn't have Juan Soto and yeah, they're going to have jazz children for the full year. And they have Cody Bellinger. Uh,

but Paul Goldschmidt has not had a great spring. I think he's hitting like two 50 and he can't hit the hard fastball. full year and they have Cody Bellinger. Uh, but Paul Goldschmidt has not had a great spring. I think he's hitting like two 50 and he can't hit the, the, the hard fastball. Um, the Mayhew is limping around the clubhouse. Uh, you know, they Dominguez doesn't really handle the fly balls and left field all that well. And, and so there's some questions about whether he's going to be able to hit enough right now too.

So, you know, they've got some major questions, the Yankees. And they've rebuilt their bullpen a bit. But I think that to me, they're not necessarily the runaway leader in the American East right now. And they have fallen back to the pack. It always feels like with the Yankees too, a lot of it hinges on Judge. The year that he was going on his historical home run pace, it was like, well, if Judge

isn't doing it, they had a hard time generating it elsewhere. I think where the Blue Jays factor into that is they're going to have a strong rotation, but now Max Scherzer dealing with a right thumb soreness, his start gets pushed back. Is that what you expected to get things up and running for Scherzer or dealing with a right thumb soreness, his start gets pushed back. Is that kind of what you expected to get things up and running for Scherzer or is that a little more of a concern? Well that's a concern because the thumb issue is tied to the nerve issue. I was just in their camp just the other day and he was talking about how good he felt in that the nerve issue was the thing that was the the problem that his back was so much better but the nerve was the issue and it was

feeling so much better but whenever that thumb started acting up it was because the nerve was running down from his shoulder down through his arm down the forearm to the thumb and now that the thumb's flaring up it does make you worry a little bit about that that nerve that starts up in the shoulder and that that may be something that continues to be an issue for him so you know that is a concern and and you know that is where some of the power and the velocity comes from for him so something to keep an eye on we'll see whether that's a thing or not but you know even with that I think that you know the Blue Jays should still have a good rotation

even and I think that you know the question was were you going to expect 30 starts or 32 starts from Scherzer? I was hoping that maybe you'd get 24 quality starts from him and and then you know Yurio Rodriguez might mix in for some starts there and you know you maybe later inurio Rodriguez might mix in for some starts there. And, you know, you, you maybe later in the year, you'd mix in some of the, one of the young guys in the mix at some point too. And so, um, you know, your hope is you'd get as much out of Scherzer as you can, as healthy as you can. Cause when he's healthy, it's going to be pretty good, but you know, you gotta get him healthy and,

and he's not going to help you if he's not on the field. Cause when he is healthy, I think he is going to be very good, but, um, you know've got to keep an eye on it and monitor it, and it's going to be after every start, you're going to be thinking about whether or not he's going to be healthy and able to make the next one. With Steve Phillips, there's still a number of things that need to be determined as we get through camp down in Dunedin. And you said it, you were just around the team a couple of days ago trying to get a read on where they stand.

The batting order has been kind of a daily conversation up here, it sounds like Vladi will hit second, Santander will hit third, and I think Bichette's gonna get leadoff duties for a good portion of the season as long as he's comfortable in that role. I get the impression like B Bo kind of wants that. What is your read on the situation in terms of Bichette and the importance of

them, the importance of them picking the right guy to lead off day in, day out? Yeah, I think that, that, you know, I think the lineup is going to be malleable. Uh, malleable. I think that, that, you know, John Schneider will ride a hot hand for it. And if somebody cools off, he'll put somebody else in there. He may work matchups with it. I want somebody who wants the role. And I think there's something about Beau Bichette who's hungry this year.

And a leadoff hitter who goes up there with some level of swag and energy, who's got something to prove, I kind of like that. And the idea that, you know, Bichette's got something to prove and wants to go up there and lead the team and lead his career and, you know, make a statement. Like this is a statement year form. And so I kind of like the notion of him up there to set things off and set the stage because he's got some ground to make up in his career right now and so I don't mind that at all if that's something that he wants and I wouldn't mind him being given that opportunity to go out there and do that right now and so I might reward that for him

and see if he can't carry it for a while. And if he can, go run it and let's see what he can do. And if at some point he cools off a little bit and somebody else is hot, then I might run them up there too and just play it out a little bit. And if matchups come into play and you got a tough right hander on the mound and there's a left hander bat that's hot, then I might run that guy up there too. So I don't think you have to necessarily lock in on it. I just want somebody getting on base

in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., which I think is the most important factor. Well, Steve, speaking of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., I'm seeing a report from Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, and I will read you the first two lines. The number of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wants is 500 million, not 500 million before deferrals, but 500 million in present value according to sources briefed on the first baseman's contract negotiations

with the Toronto Blue Jays. What do you make of that report and number? Well, yeah, I guess it just depends upon over how many years, right? And so is that over 10 years? Is that over 14 years? That's where it matters, right? Is what's the annual average value of that contract? And it seems like there in lies some part of the difference because what we heard was that, what he told the ESPN, the Fortes is that, they offered him 15 years, just under 600 million. Now, whether that was deferred money or whether it was just spread out over 15 years, where the AAV was under a certain amount

that he wanted the AAV more and he didn't wanna spread out over a period of time you know it all depends you know what the structure is of the deal so I don't know what the 500 means 500 million spread out over what period of time it looks like the 14 million is or 14 years sorry is what he might be looking for well John Heyman I guess of the Post reporting that Toronto proposed an extension for around $500 million with deferrals to Vladi that would have put the net present value in the range of $400 million to $450 million. I'm assuming that's a 14, 15 year, 15 year deal, something like that, Steve.

I would have to believe it. For me if he, for me that is surprising. Like not that Vlad is asking for what he's asking for, I think that's become clear. What is surprising to me is this Heyman report, if it's true that the J's were willing to, you know, offered him 400 to 450 million dollars, that is a massive move for them over the course of like a six month period.

Because I don't believe they were comfortable giving them $300 million a year ago. Now they've gone up $100 million, $150 million. That's a lot of money that the J's have moved on, Steve. I agree. And I think that there's some level where I think that they deserve some acknowledgement of credibility that they're making a distinct effort to try to keep their player. And he's not Juan Soto. And they have made an effort and a statement that they want to keep them, that they have moved to a level that is a record-setting number for not only the organization, but it would be a record-setting

number for a right-handed-hanging first baseman. It would be a record-setting number beyond a Mike Trout contract. Quite honestly, it's beyond where Aaron Judge's deal is. You know, it's an extraordinary offer coming from the Blue Jays. And you know, this notion that this front office isn't willing to invest or go there, or you know, and for them to get ownership,

and remember, these are ownership decisions, but the front office has to convince them to do it. And so for them to go there, to get them to go to that number and to push them off of where they were before the front office has to get them to do it and and so you know as as much maligned as they have been it has taken some convincing to get them to go there and you know they do deserve some credit for doing it now they may or may not get it done and if they don't get it done, they're gonna catch flack for it and I get it.

But you know, they have made what I, it certainly sounds like a very significant offer and people can judge whether or not they're serious enough about it. But it doesn't sound like an offer good enough to lose the player. It sounds like an offer where they thought they were really gonna try to get a deal done.

Yeah. Like the way it reads to me now is that Vlad is not really negotiating. He's saying this is it and if you, I'll stay if you take my number. In other words, I win the negotiation. I puff my chest out and you know, if you're not comfortable with that so be it because you know I'm reading the report it's just coming out that I guess Vlad E eased his stance on deferrals closer to the deadline but we're still seeking the present value at 500 million so what complicates this is the deferrals you know there's some sort of calculation that puts you know 765 million or 700 million into context of what it actually means

for current value when you consider deferrals being paid well into the future and inflation and all that. And the way this post report, I guess, is crunching the numbers would indicate that if he is looking for present day value of 500 million total, to put that into perspective, Shohei Otani's $700 million deal with the Dodgers last year before the season had a present day value of 460 million. So in other words, Vlad wants more money than Shohei Otani in, you know, which, sorry, is just absurd.

Like obviously is absurd. Right, that's right. That's really what he wants is a present value more than Shohei Otani. What makes it even more absurd is that when Soto took it beyond there, but what happened was that the agents will say, well, that was the market then, but Soto created a new market and therefore Otani's contract isn't relevant anymore because Soto set a new market. Now I look at it and think Soto is a one-off because you had a perfect storm of two New York owners who went where they weren't.

And so the reality is Soto's relevant so is Otani relevant and you know you can make an argument that that you know Soto doesn't matter for Guerrero you could say that that Otani does matter but I understand they're trying to tie it to Soto I get it but it doesn't seem like there's any world in which you can justify Guerrero making more than Otani. No, you can't. I mean, I get he's younger and he means a lot to this market. Listen, he's entitled to ask for whatever he wants, and he's under contract and he's

going to perform this year. If he's going to walk, he's going to walk. Doomsday may hit, and the Jays are going to have to make a tough choice. If these reports are accurate, and you knew this was just a matter of time before the leaks came out on both sides, like it was just a matter of time, both are going to try to play the game and both try to win PR here. If Ladi's looking for more money technically than Otani, that's crazy. And I think if the Jays were willing to go to four, 450 million, that is legitimate negotiation.

That's not lowballing him. That's legitimate. Yet in the end, Steve, they still might have to, they might lose the player, you know, and maybe he gets that money somewhere else and they'll have to face that reality when they get to it. It's crazy. Yeah. You know, the other thing, guys, really interesting, we interviewed Vladian Kamp and one of the

things that really was interesting is he said one of the things that needs to be better is our clubhouse our clubhouse wasn't good last year We need everybody in the boat going in the same direction And he said I think it's gonna be better this year that we have to play for the name of the front of the uniform Instead of the names in the back of the uniform It was really pointed out that really something that I really wasn't all that aware of last year, that there were some issues in the clubhouse and he said it's better already and I know and from both the front office and the coaches and the manager and the players, the notion of Santander, Andres Jimenez and Scherzer all impacting the energy for the team and the clubhouse

as a different energy was dramatic. Like everybody referenced it. That those guys were all bringing a whole different energy into this team about the front of the uniform, you know, the name on the front of the uniform instead of the back of the uniform about winning. And Vlade said that we need to be better that way and I need to make sure that we're better that way. But for a guy in the last year of his contract

was legitimately and authentically worried about winning this year instead of worrying about the name on the back of the uniform when, look, he could be worried about the name on the back of the uniform. I was very convinced and surprised though by what the issue was last year and how important it was to him and everybody else this year. Well, we're getting closer and closer to opening day. It is a beautiful thing, Steve, and we'll

chat up, chat I'm sure multiple times before we get there and we always appreciate you doing this. Thank you. Okay, you got it guys. Thanks so much. There's Steve Phillips, or TSM baseball and set I heart radio is taking you backstage with Kane Brown in Quebec City meet him interview him an I heart radio experience you'll never forget with flights hotel and $500 included for your best chance to win, enter daily at iHeartRadio.ca. Kane Brown's new album, The High Road, is available now.