OverDrive - Phillips on Guerrero Jr.'s next steps, his contract outlook and the Blue Jays' management views

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss the latest around MLB, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s outlook with the Blue Jays and his arbitration with the team, if he remains with the roster, the management ideas and additions in Toronto, Bo Bichette's stance on the lineup, the roster construction of the team and more.

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Well, you know, you can continue to negotiate all the way up until and through your arbitration hearing. And so, right, so the deadline is about when you have to file numbers and get those numbers submitted but, you know, there are a lot of negotiations that are ongoing that will continue. Now each organization is a little bit different. The Blue Jays have always been, well, let's put it this way with Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, have been a file and trial organization that once you file numbers,

if you don't make a deal before you file numbers, the only way they do make a deal is if it's a multi-year deal. And otherwise you're gonna go to a hearing. And so, now whether they're sticking to that, we'll see. Whether that'll be the case with Vladimir Gros Jr., we'll see. Obviously, you know, they, the idea of getting

a multi-year deal with him is something that they want. Sometimes, you know, this is a way to, to stimulate negotiations. But it sounds like they're a far, a long ways apart. And so this is really right now, just about what you're going to get paid in 2025. And you know, they can get that deal done and still negotiate a long-term deal if they want to.

Yeah, if they want to. I think that's, I guess we've got to get to that answer first. Don't we, Steve? Like, do they really, really want Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to retire a Blue J. Is that a priority for Mark Shapiro? I gotta tell you, I don't know the answer to it. I mean, my, you know, if we look at actions, then it's not certainly been a priority necessarily

because, you know, my view all along was the best deal they could make is if they could have done it in November And what we've seen is sure enough what's happened since is that with the Soto signing? The price has gone up and we're hearing now that the two sides are about a hundred million dollars apart That Guerrero's camp is looking at 450 right now and the J's, you know Which would mean the J's were in the 350 range and 350 probably would have gotten it done in November

before Soto signed for that kind of money. Now, the other thing is that complicates this is the Blue J's were in on Soto and they were in on them from every indication over $700 million or at $700 million and you know, it was clearly a statement that they prioritize Soto over Guerrero because they didn't pursue Guerrero right out of the, at the end of the season. They pursued Soto.

So I think it's going to be interesting to see how Blatty's feelings are, whether he's looks at it and says, look, you chose Guerrero or Soto over me. So I'm going to look around before I decide to come back here too, or whether they'll find some ground to get a deal done. Indications are, Vladdy would like to stay, but he wants what the market says his value is, and it's really unclear to me, because Vladdy's better than Pete Alonzo, right?

He is, but Pete Alonzo's a 40-hole run guy, and he can't get any traction in his market at all. I mean, he wants, you know, Scott Boris is representing Alonzo, and they set their sights on the Prince Fielder deal from decades ago, which was about 219 million. Now, Freddie Freeman's paid about 168 million, Matt Olson about 172, and Alonzo,

so I think Alonzo is instructive on Vladdy, but I think Vladdy looks at himself more like Soto than he does like Pete Alonzo. And I don't know what the market is gonna say about that. So, I think the J's are in a tough spot. I think Vladdy's in a tough spot, his agent's tough spot because he looks at himself and says I'm at least half as good There's one Soto. Why wouldn't I get at least half the amount of money that one so which would be 380, you know 80 million and You know, it doesn't there's no indication that J's are willing to go to that number

But I think it's gonna at least take that to get it done and probably a number starting with a four. So Steve, it looks like, as you say, the Jays are in a tough spot here on Vladdy and just on the offseason in general, which has not gone the way I'm sure they planned it to. Steve to sort of be a crisis management guy here and help these guys out of this problem that they find themselves in here a month away from pictures and catches, catches reporting essentially. Like where would you even start to help them pull this disaster of an off season out of the fire? Yeah, I would say let's get Santander signed, close that out, let's get it done. Then, let's go to Scott Morris and say, we'll sign both Bregman and Pete Alonzo. And, you know, it's gonna take probably more for Bregman

than Alonzo because Bregman's market is more robust than Alonzo's market, but then I would trade Blatty. Then I would trade Blatty. And so what you get, you get the replacement for Blatty and Alonzo, you get the replacement for Vladdy and Alonzo. You get Bregman at third base, here's the thing. Vladdy's gonna make about 30 million, 31 million, 32 million. Alonzo's gonna make about 22, 23.

They're already in on Santander with the budget they currently have. So sign Santander and then go get Bregman, get him signed, and then go to Bourse, say look, we'll get both these guys, you can't go back to the Mets. Can't go back to the Mets, you give them a chance to sign Alonzo, we're willing to get it done,

we want them, and then you trade Guerrero, and you get prospects to replenish your farm system, or you go get a Closer, you go get Starting Pitching, you go to Seattle, and you go to Seattle and you say, we'll take Bryce Miller or Logan Gilbert out of your rotation and then do that. Then you hope to get Sasaki and then you go win a World Series.

Well then, exactly, that sounds great. I mean, I just don't see how that is obviously gonna happen and I also don't see how they're going to be comfortable with that steve like i i think the concern that i have here with what comes to volati is if you can't sign this guy how can you sign anybody

like how are they possibly going to prove that they can sign anybody of substance if you can't keep a kid who's been in your system since he was sixteen and has made it very clear he actually wants to stay here for a long time you know the biggest contract ever signed is george springer six years one fifty that's peanuts that's nothing they are not a big game player if they never have that

they they spread their money out their top ten in payroll, so they spread money out. There's no denying that. The Springer deal, that's it. That's pirates' money, man. That's Red's territory. So if you can't get Vladdy done, how can you reasonably expect them to get anybody else done? Like, how's it going to happen? Well, yeah. So I think you get guys done who want money, right? And so it's going to be somebody who, listen, this is about all that. That's what Vlad wants though, Steve. Vlad wants money. Why won't you pay him? Well, because, I mean, here's the thing. They may not think, and it would not be unreasonable to say,

we're not comfortable giving him 12 years. I would understand that if that's the logic that they have. I would, I wouldn't understand it. I would give it to him, but I understand why somebody might not want to. You know, with, you know, he's a big guy. He's, I mean, I just saw pictures of him in the Dominican. He's a big guy. And, you know, I can understand that argument,

but if that's the case, then set yourself up to win in 2025, and there's still time to do it, to be creative and pivot. And now you're gonna have to have a lot go right to be able to do it. And so what you're gonna have to do though, is you're gonna have to be the team with the most money on the table.

And again, it's not necessarily, you know, 400 million for one guy. It's giving money to Bregman, giving money to Alonzo, giving money to Santander, and spreading it out in a way. And so, and I think you might put together a better team than if you sign Vladdy and have to pay him the 40 million or whatever 35 million or whatever You know, he thinks he should get then you might not have the money left over to address third base and address left field In that and so, you know, I think but you know all of that Look look Ross Atkins and mark are smart guys, whatever anybody else think they're like, I know them. They're smart guys They thought of all of this they They they whatever their plan is was laggy

It's been thought out whether it's good logic bad logic, whatever they have a plan and And and right now it does not seem like signing him Is going to be part of it just because if there's a hundred million dollar gap That's that's that's just a statement of this is who we think you are, this is who you think you are. There's not middle ground on $100 million. No, it's a massive gap. Yeah, it's not only the length of the contract that there's a disagreement,

but there's also the dollars per year that there's a disagreement of some significance. And so, I mean, look, the reason Blatty would get a lot of money is because he's 25. And you know, you're going to give him a longer term contract and therefore it's going to the money is going to compound itself. You know, it's why Soto was able to get beyond Otani was because Otani was 30 and Soto's 25.

And so you get the extra years, the 15 years versus 10, that's automatically taking you, you know, 150, 200 million beyond where, you know, the AAD might dictate. So, look, I think that it's been a tough off season. There's still players on the board that if they get them, they could put, we could walk away saying they had a pretty good off season. It's still possible for them to do that but if it's just on time there they keep gladiator play out for a year that's not enough often for my money for them to really truly compete in the division with the red sox have taken a big step forward

the eighties are still going to be good in the orals are going to be very competitive must be a lot of your vision now a lot more than i think i've heard from the guys actually in the seats as much as i know you respect those dudes what do you do if you are continuing on this track of the love of it i'm loving your crisis management loving you pull another that pulling this off season of the fire for the blue jays if you had to continue what do you do but the problem they both the jet

yeah i think you well well, you plan it out for a year or, or what you do is you, you hedge your bet, you protect yourself and maybe what you end up doing is you take a risk. That's not a one year deal. You trade Vlad E. Like I don't care where, if I get the guys I want, I'll trade Vladimir Gero Jr. to anybody, including within the division. I would because it's for one year. Like there's no guarantee somebody's gonna be able to sign them, but I would go to the Red Sox,

and I might get Kristin Cassis and Marcelo Mayer, and within that, get my replacement for Bichette for next year, and play Bichette out for this year, see what he does, and build his value. If he builds value and I got a chance to move and mayor's ready, then maybe I make a move during the season to bring the kid up. But you go and get your shortstop in the Guerrero trade if you, you know, again, again, a lot has to go right.

And it's easy for me to spend somebody else's money. And the one thing I will tell you is this. If general managers have money available to them from the owner, they're gonna spend it. When it looks like they're not spending, it's generally not a general, it's usually not a general manager's issue, it's an owner's issue about the money's not there for the general manager.

Because if they have it, they're gonna spend it. And so like if it's me and I'm off Atkins, and I've got the approval to sign Vladdy, I'm gonna go get it done. And if I don't get it done, it's probably because I don't have the money available to me. It's not because I don't want them. And so I think that as much as we wanna put it

on the front office, you know, this comes down to, you know, if the money was there for Otani and the money was there for Soto, then where is the money? Now, it's different because it's the number of years, but on an AAV, if it's 47 and a half million for Soto or 50 million, and they were in at that level, then where's the 50 million they had to spend for the other players available in the market? And if they're not spending it, not because they don't want to, it's because it might

not still be available and it was exclusive for Soto or Otani. That's very possible. I think Otani in particular. I mean, Otani represented something completely different. Soto to me though is one that is difficult to explain. You'd have the money for him but you can't spread it out throughout the rest of the lineup. Great player, phenomenal player, but not Ohtani, not judge. In terms of ticket selling, jersey selling, buzz creation, Soto just isn't on the same

level. So if you had a green light to go up to 650, 680, 700, the idea that nothing else would be available to you seems very unreasonable or just it doesn't seem like something an executive would suggest. And here's what I would say about the idea of them salvaging the offseason. If they've concluded Vlad is not a part of their program, they should have traded him two months ago, three months ago. That would have been one that sure

the fan base would have freaked out a little bit but at least you would have proven he had a plan you know if sheparna Atkins flipped him in November and got all these different pieces and then attacked the offseason rigorously it would be different but now it just feels like they've missed that opportunity like they've they've it's just it's like a scramble now Steve and yeah you know sure they can salvage it. There's still guys out there, like you mentioned, the big three right now in terms of bats,

Alonzo Bregman and Santander, they're all 30 years old. You know, they're all good players. But you know, if you get one of them and then Vlad and Bo walk at the end of the year, what's that doing for your future? What's the point? Right. Well, to your point, I mean, right.

A reason like that's very reasonable and understandable. And so to think that, that, uh, their plan was to only keep Vladdy for the year and that they didn't want to sign them. Doesn't make sense. So my sense is they probably do want to sign them, but you know, maybe there was a miscalculation on timing. Maybe there was, yeah, we want Vlad E, but we prefer Soto. And if we can only sign one, which is probably

maybe what ownership thought, but we can't keep both these guys, so make a choice. If you want Soto, let's go get Soto. Now the problem is that, and again, it makes, like when something seems like it's missing, it doesn't make sense, then there's something we don't understand. And because you're saying, if you wanted Soto, great.

If you still want Vladi after you didn't get Soto and there's not a deal getting done and the money should be there because you had the money there get Soto, and there's not a deal getting done, and the money should be there because you had the money there for Soto, then it may mean that Vlad E. doesn't want a sign. Right, that would be a reasonable explanation as to why a deal's not getting done because clearly the money is gonna be less for Guerrero

than it was for Soto, and if you had it for Soto, and you're not spending it on Guerrero, it must mean that Guerrero doesn't really want to come back here. That would be a reasonable explanation. It's unclear, but it would be reasonable. So, you know, and, and so, you know, I think that you're right. If they didn't want to keep Blatty, they would have traded him. They would have, but they wanted to keep them if they didn't get Soto.

But the risk you run when you go after Soto and not Vlad E is that Vlad E says, why would I want to be your second choice? Right. Emotion gets in there. Emotion. Right. And I get it. I get it from his perspective, but you know, I also think that that maybe they

thought that he would be okay with it. Uh, and, and maybe it's not, or maybe they had money for money for both right those are some of the things that we don't know those conversations but if it's me I'm gonna sign Blatty if I have the money to sign them and if he wants to sign even if I have to go back to ownership and say look you know what we miscalculated by waiting it cost us an extra hundred billion now owners don't like that that it may put you in jeopardy but i still would want to find them well see we'll see if they end up in arbitration and i guess we got a you

know cross that bridge first before we get to anything else great catching up with the steve will do it again soon thank you for this you bet i think we have a lot to do is the philips or a t s and baseball insider