OverDrive - Phillips on the Bichette's Blue Jays era conclusion, Tucker landing with the Dodgers and the Blue Jays' next steps

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss the Bo Bichette era concluding in Toronto and his signing with. the Mets, the Blue Jays' next steps after losing out on Bichette and Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger in the cards, targeting a closer and more.

Steve, yeah, so in terms of like the Tucker signing, let's go there first, is this a scenario where you look at it from a Blue Jay perspective that they could have matched, they should have matched, or was it just impossible to compete with the Dodgers? Yeah, I don't think they had any chance of doing a long-term deal that would coax him out of this deal. And the other way to do it would have been to do an inappropriate, bizarre, outrageous contract on a long-term basis. I mean, remember, he came out of the season last year when Vladdy signed his contract.

Everybody said, oh, Kyle Tucker's going to get $400 million. Okay, that's 40 times 10. He's getting $60 million for four years on the front end of this. And so when you think about what's the way to maximize your value, four years at 240, you know, listen, the present value of it's $57 million because it's sums deferred. But even that, you know, he would have had to have gotten $450 million, even to justify, walking away from this short-term deal. And so I think it was, it made sense for him to do it. He'll play this out, even though, you know, he's got opt-downs, but he'll play it out. And then what

he'll do is he'll try to do what Kyle Swarber did at 832-33, turned it into a five-year, $150 million deal. And you attack that on to the 240 and you're, you know, you're at $390 million. And then, nobody was going to 400 million with them. And so I think it made a lot of sense for him to maximize his value. It made no sense for the Blue Jays to chase it. And, you know, the amazing part was, you know, the Mets were in. I thought they were nuts doing $50 million a year for three years. Then it was $50 million for $4.

Then it was $55 million for. And I'm thinking, what are they doing? And then it turns into $60 million. And remember, the Dodgers pay $110 percent tax on that $57 million. point one million present value. He will cost them $119.9 million for 2026. Just him. And so like it's it's absurd now. They can do it. They can afford it. They've got the revenues to justify what they're doing. Their business plan and their baseball plan is rolling in the same way and it's very successful. But nobody else can do that. And so you have to let them walk at that point. There's nothing you can do.

and you have to pivot to the next guy. Problem is the pivot for the Blue Jays went to the Mets because they got crazy with him. And I think a knee-jerk, desperate reaction of signing Bob Wachette, who doesn't even fit for them? Considering they traded for Marcus Simeon, and they talk about wanting to improve their defense. And so they're not going to take a square peg into a round hole and Bichette try to play them at third. Then they're going to take the third baseman of Brett Beatty and say, oh, we're going to move in the left field and pound another square peg into a round hole. So the Mets are playing reactive roster building, and it's really getting them in a hole. Steve, so if you were going to grade the offseason for the Jays,

with them losing out on Tucker and ultimately Bichette as well, like does that affect the way you're going to summarize the Jays offseason? Because there was talk about the Jays getting both of these two guys, and then they end up with none. Yeah, so I didn't think they could afford both of them. But Dylan sees Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers, in the bullpen is a really big improvement on the pitching. You're going to get a healthy perios back, a full year of Trey O'S Savage.

Then on the offensive side, I mean, last year was a loss year for Anthony Santander. But the step forward that Addison Barger made and Nathan Lucas made and Ernie Clement made, I think is significant. A full season of Dalton Varsow this year, the improvement for Alejjo Kirk. The Blue Jays have an easy possibility of being a better team this year, with the guys they already have. And there is some part of adding Kyle Tucker that it was going to cut into it

for Addison Barger, which I wasn't okay with. You know, they signed Acomoto because the clock was ticking. They didn't know what was going to happen time-wise with Pichette. They had to make a decision. Acamoto is a very good offensive player. Jay's fans are going to like them. Not a great defender,

but Pichette wasn't a great defender. And so I think that he'll be good, and I think you're going to get bounced back for some guys. and growth, I really still think the Blue Jays are the best team in the American League League East. Well, and that's the amazing thing about the reaction to this is, you know, conventional wisdom would suggest as long as Bichette and Tucker don't end up with the Yankees

or the socks, you're okay. You know, but the world of baseball is different because the Dodgers, you know, everyone has to face the wrath of the Dodgers and the Dodgers have been winning all these negotiations at the sake of, you know, the Blue Jays pursuing Otani and Sasaki and Tucker and the World Series, which the Dodgers came in and won. The Mets is just a crazy owner that's going to spend recklessly, but they still have an offseason. There's still some guys out there.

Bellinger is still out there. The guys who they were connected to the most, obviously were Tucker and Bichet, Bregman to an extent. There's some bats out there, some arms still out there, and the possibility of trades. Do you think the Blue Jays off season is over? If it's not, what could you see possibly have? happening. Yeah. So I, I, you know, the question is, do they pivot to Cody Bellinger? You know, he is Kyle Tucker Light is how I look at Cody Bellinger. Another five tool guy.

He can play center. I think ideally the Jayes wouldn't mind getting another outfielder that they control beyond the 26th season because Bar Shows are free agent and Springer's a free agent. And so they'd like to have another guy. And the benefit of this is it's not going to take 10 years to get him done. He wants seven. The Yankees have dead stopped at five. And imagine stealing Belling Bellinger out from under the Yankees, and the Yankees at that point would have nowhere else to go. Like, there's not a Bellinger-like guy out there, another Tucker guy or Bichette guy. But Bissette could have been a fallback, but the Mets jumped on it. And here's think. I think the Mets are going to be on Bellinger, too. And so I think the Js, I'd like to see them

pursue Bellinger. and see if they can't make a deal there. He's an outstanding defender in center field. He can play left field. He's done a lot of left field as well. He can play first base and protect you as a left-hand of bat there. And he got pop, he can steal a base. And so he'd fit.

And it would cut into some of bats for barger, and I'd rather not do it. But the idea of getting him and keeping him away from the Yankees for a year, it would be fantastic, really good. And so, you know, I personally think the biggest, whiff that the Jays have made this offseason is not getting a closer. I think that they're a World Series caliber team in every aspect except the ninth inning. And I love, I listen, Jeff Hoppins is a really good guy, and I think he could be an effective pitcher.

I just want him in the seventh inning or eighth inning. I don't want them in the ninth. I wanted Diaz, or I wanted, and here's the money. If you have money for Tucker, I would have put it on Diaz instead and gone with the position player group that I had. I would have put it in a Robert Suarez and foregone my pursuit of Tucker in the group. Now, the closers are gone, and you didn't get Tucker. And so, you know, and if you had that money, I would have spent it on a closer myself. And that's one area that, but at the trade deadline, they'll be able to save some prospects

and then go out there and get a closer at the deadline. Yeah, Diaz went to the Dodgers of all teams, right? Like, it's almost like we've forgotten about that, but the best closing arm available is also in L.A. And I think the trade deadlines is going to be really interesting because if they are feeling like they're short of power bat, you might be able to acquire one there. I think you're absolutely spot on in terms of the

Hoffman was it was a roller coaster all year. And it ended somewhat predictably. Yeah, unfortunately. I mean, the Rojas home run, that's off him. You know, like they we always, we talk about kind of falafo, we talk about the Clement hit the left field. We talk about, you know, Kirk

hit into a double play. Hoffman closes the night. They win the World Series. And he couldn't do it. So we'll see what they do with that position. But, you know, you look at it. There's a lot of chat now in Toronto, and I know you've had it a lot, too, Steve, in terms of what needs to happen next season with certain guys. I think Springer, you've got to expect him to come back to Earth a little bit.

They can't crash through the Earth, but he's going to probably come back to Earth a little bit. Full season of Clement, full season of Barger. You mentioned Santander. He's effectively a free agent. signing for me. Like his season last time, he didn't play. Right. You know, when he did play, he got nothing from him.

He's terrible. They got nothing. Like, that's, I think, what you've got to hope for here. If you're Atkins and company, he comes back healthy, motivated. If he can hit 40 home runs, okay. Now you're laughing, right? Oh, yeah. I mean, give me 35 home runs.

I'm happy with it. And, I mean, that's a switch hitter. So he gives balance to the lineup, full season of Varsho. And Varshow's home run. run rate was fantastic when he came back in last year. And he's going to be motivated in a walk year to become a free agent at the end of the year. So there's a lot of reason to think the guys will be as good or better than they were last year.

And you're getting full seasons out of just some of the guys who really blossomed last year too. And so, you know, a full season of your savage in the rotation is, I think, going to be huge. I just, I'm excited for the Jays for that to see what he can do with a full season. And the depth of that rotation. and look, if they end up with that much depth, they can always trade a starting pitcher to somebody at some point to fill a hole if they need it along the way.

But they're still going to be a good defensive team. We'll see what Acomodo can do at third, but overall they can move players around later if they need to to make it fit. But I'm bullish on where they are right now, and I still think they're the team to beat in America League East. All right, Steve, we'll leave it there. It's been a pretty wild couple of days. There's probably going to be more to come

before we get to pitchers and catchers reporting in a month. Great catching up with you, Steve. We'll do it again soon. All right, you got it, guys. My pleasure anytime. There's Steve Phillips, our baseball and Saturday. I'm Luke Wilson. Join me each week for Film Never Lies. Since retiring from the NFL, I've had a lot of my mind, and now, I've got my own show. So if you're tired of lazy takes, if you want honest conversations, join us each week. Film Never Lies, available on all TSN platforms in the IHeartRadio app.