OverDrive - Phillips on the Blue Jays catching fire, Guerrero Jr. in a funk and Yesavage's injury status

Episode Date: August 12, 2026

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss the Blue Jays beginning to heat up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s offensive stance, Trey Yesavage's injury handling, the Red Sox's identity of the roster, Paul Skenes' rough performances and more.

But they've won the first two games of this series, game three going tonight. And the chat about it. We're joined now by our TSM Baseball Insider. Here's Steve Phillips joining us on the Maple Toyota Hotline. What's happening, Steve? Hey, guys, good to be with you. How are you? We're doing very well.

And, you know, tonight we're talking about Charles McAder leading off. You got Bateman hit in second. This is a mojo play. Like, Bateman had a couple of big hits last night. You know, he's going to play every day in center field. That's fine. But I can't say the analytics. scream this should be the way they do it.

But I kind of like it because if you're going to rack up some wins for the first time basically all season, why mess with a good thing? I kind of feel like the good vibes mojo is factoring into the lineup card every night. Do you see it the same way? Yeah, I think for John Snyder, he's got to play to win and play the hot hand, right? The hot hand. When you're not hitting, you're ranked 29th and run scored in Major League Baseball. And you've got some guys that are doing something to get the line moving a little

bit, play them, write it out, see what you can do with it. And, you know, the reality is that with 41 games left, you've got 25% of the season left right now, it's going to come down to really, it's not going to be Bateman or McAdoo, it's going to be Vladdy. And if Vladdy can hit the ball on the ballpark and get going, I mean, to think about, they have 120 homer player, that they have only two players with double-digit home runs right now. It's pretty remarkable. But, you know, they've got some momentum.

I'm worried about the starting pitching with Tyone and going down and Ergeti not being ready to come back just yet. And so they're short-handed. And the bullpen, they've made 31 more pitching changes than the second most team in baseball. They've made the most pitching changes. They've got six, there are 16 relievers who have appeared in 55 games or more, four of them are Blue Jays. The only other team with two are the Yankees. and the other ones are just one guy on every team. And so, you know, there's a lot of things screaming.

It's impossible. But a short sprint to the finish, they've got the wherewithal to do it and the time to do it. Well, Steve, if you believe in the percentages in the past week or so, they've essentially doubled their chances of getting into the playoffs. I think seven or six days ago they were 6%. Right now, they're about 12% according to Fangraps. So that's still an 88% chance that they're not going to make it, but people in town are excited, at least for now. But you go back to the numbers on Vladdy.

I mean, he's had some warning track blasts of late. When you look at that, when you see a guy with warning track blasts who's been complaining at times of a back problem, at times of a hamstring problem, I mean, like, are you seeing that he just doesn't have that pop? I mean, to your eye, what is wrong there? and is there any chance that it could turn around given the things he's been complaining about? Yeah, I mean, certainly back and leg issues can affect the power for a hitter. There's no question about that. It's, you know, the legs, the feet all the way up are the foundation of the swing,

the kinetic links that connect all of those to allow the hips to rotate to get the bat in the zone are all part of that. But his exit velocities are still pretty good, down a little bit, but still pretty good. And so it really is the angle at which he hits the baseball is the thing. And so when he's not comfortable, he gets, he cheats a little bit. And he gets halfway. And when he gets his body out, it's really hard for him to then get on that back leg and lift and hit the bottom of the baseball.

And so what he does is he gets out here and the only angle that he can go to the ball is level or down on it to be able to make contact. And that's what we're seeing in the results right now. And so, you know, it can change. change, you know, a little trigger with somebody says to him, hit the ball out in front. Go ahead. Don't worry about it. If you strike out, don't worry about anything else. Hit the ball out in front. Make contact out in front a little bit more. Don't worry if he get jammed. Maybe there's a way he can catch fire. I think if he got going, then the back would feel

better, right? The back hurts when you're not hitting well. Your hamstring is a little tighter when you're not performing well. I think if he started performing, people started cheering, I think it would heal a lot of things for him. Well, in terms of the, the, the other team, you know, playing tonight, the Red Sox, I've noticed, you know, Red Sox fans all of a sudden saying, I knew it, they peaked too soon, you know, they're coming back to Earth because they were so hot and they won all those games in a row. And now they do look all of a sudden like somewhat of a flawed team. How good or how bad are the Red Sox? Like what exactly are the Red Sox as you project the rest of the way? Right. So will the real Red Sox please stand up, right? I mean,

it's so hard to know, like, who they really are. You know, in the four games that they've lost, they're two for 36 with runners in scoring position. But I'm not so worried about the two. I'm impressed by the 36. So they're still getting runners on in a scoring position. They just haven't come up with the big hit. And so I find them, that's the message I'm sending. Guys, this is just the nature of baseball.

Timing plays into a little bit. we're still giving ourselves chances and opportunities. We'll get going with that big hit again. Don't fret. Don't think about it. Don't try too hard. Just keep playing the way you're playing right now. That being said, I don't know how the hell they're doing it.

I mean, they're okay. They're a good team, but they're not a great team. I like the pitching. But the offense, I don't get where the offensive production has come from. Sennon Raphael is not a power guy. William Brayor is a really good player, but he's not a 30-hober guy. And, you know, they've just gotten good contributions. They've hit with runners in scoring position.

And they give themselves a lot of opportunities. And they haven't been beating themselves. Now, they did a little bit over the last few days. So we'll see what happens with it. But if they completely faded out of the playoffs, you know, I wouldn't be shocked by it. Because, you know, it's like that college basketball team that makes a great run coming out after halftime. And then they expend all their energy and they can't sustain it the rest of the way. I could see that happening to them.

The Tigers are the team right now for me. I think people should look out for. You know, they've got the highest run differential in the American League. So they've outperformed their record pretty significantly. The offense is starting to come around a little bit. And although they traded Scooblin-Miles, Ty Mellon, Jackson-Job, they both look great. They've got Framber Valdez on the mound today.

I think there's a chance the Tigers are going to sneak into this thing and have reaped the benefits of trading away at the deadline. Oh, Good, Dave. On the mount tonight. Sorry about that, guys. On the mount tonight, Steve, for the Jays, Soriano, making his home debut. You know, there's been a lot of talk.

The Jays are getting a lot of pats on the back for acquiring a guy with a couple more years of club control after this one. And there's also this theory that, hey, he's good right now, but they can make him better. They can refine some things here with the way they develop pitchers, and he's still a relatively young guy at age 27. Are you a believer in that? Do you think the Jays actually have that potential to make this guy even better than he's been? I do. So let me tell you why. One, I have the highest respect for Pete Walker. You know, he was in the Mets organization as a player back in the day. I know him well. He's from the Northeast. So I know Pete really well. He's an excellent pitching coach. The other thing is, I don't know if you saw yesterday, but the LA Angels fired their pitching coach and their bullpen coach who's the assistant pitching coach.

Mike Maddox, they did not use any analytics in Los Angeles whatsoever. None. They didn't use anything about the shape of pitches, the break in vertical movement, the spin rate, nothing. And so, yeah, I think that you've got a piece of clay that with the right analytical approach and the right mechanical approach, the secondary stuff for Soriano can get even better. And so I am really, excited about what he could grow into, maybe not so much for the rest of this year, but for 2027 for sure. Yeah, he's going to have to, he's going to pop, you know, he's going to have to, when you consider what they have atop the rotation, you got Dylan C's, Tray is Savage, is obviously, I don't think he's going to start again this year, but they have high hopes for him, and then he got Soriano. Then beyond that, you know, they're going to have to fill that rotation out.

But, you know, the injury and the surgery now to you're satisfied. We talked about it last week when I think we were anticipating something was common. I think you called the shy. He said it kind of looked and felt like a meniscus issue. Now that we know that he has had surgery on that, how do you thread this needle in terms of wins and losses, his recovery, and, you know,

what's right for him long term compared to what might be right for the team short term? Yeah. The way I always looked at it was I let the doctors make that decision. So I would never rush it. I would never put pressure on the doctor to, you know, just tell me when he's ready. And when he's ready, we'll see if there's time left in the season for him to pitch. And if there is, I'd pitch him. I wouldn't, you know, if he's, if he get clearance on it and he's not going to injure himself in any way,

and it's not premature, then I would put him back out there and do it and see what would happen the rest of the year if he gets back at some point. But I think they have to be careful and not overdo it. And that's kind of the issue right now. With Tyone down, you savage down. you've got a four-man rotation. You're going to have to have a bullpen day on the most overworked bullpen in all of baseball. And so that's where it just seems daunting to me to try to make a run the rest of the year.

But I think that if guys are healthy and can play, then I run them out there and play them. With Steve Phillips, sir. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. Sorry. Big, big story league-wide, or actually.

MLB-wide, Steve, is the fall-off in Paul Skeens. I mean, this is a guy that was just wowing people as he sort of made his introduction into pro baseball. And here he is. I mean, a young guy, the velocity's way down. He gets pulled after six innings last night. What do you make of this? Is this a massive red flag to you, or is this a blip on the radar? Well, it's a red flag that the velocity is down.

And I know that they have made the playoffs in a while. I know they're desperate to try to do it. But he is your franchise. And when a pitcher's velocity drops as significantly as it has, I think you have to back him off and shut him down. I don't care who he is or where you are in the standings. I think you have to protect him. And so I'll be surprised if he makes another start.

Even if he says he's okay, you know, I don't, something's not okay. And whether it's mechanical, whether it's physical, whether it's fatigue, whether it's the wear and tear of a full season and logging innings and being cut loose, whatever it is, I think they need to figure that out and do the right thing for the franchise, both for the short term and long term and for him. So I am concerned about it.

The fact that he's not saying there's pain or anything else, although he's a tough guy, and guys don't always speak up about injuries, and this will be a learning curve for the organization. Sometimes you learn as you go, players aren't always truthful about how they feel. They want to be tough. They want to pitch through it.

And then they end up with a more significant issue. And so they're going to have to understand he may be one of those guys who is unwilling to take himself out. And you might have to be really conservative and protect him against himself. Well, you know, when Skeen's arrived, obviously he took the league by storm and everyone knew he was coming. And he was famous before he even arrived. He's got a famous girlfriend. but Jacob Misarowski in Milwaukee, what he is doing right now is insane.

Like we talk about the American League and the pursuit of the Tsai Young and that's a battle. There is no battle in the National League. Like he is a massive favor. He's like minus 5,000 or something to win the Cy Young on Fandul. And watching him pitch,

as amazing as Skeens is and all these guys, these great pitchers in their primes, to see him hit 104, 105 with ease, Steve, to me, is just absurd. I remember when a Rallis Chapman showed up and he would hit 101, 102, and it was like, what the hell is this guy? He'd come in, you know, he'd throw 12 pitches and leave. This guy's throwing 90, 100, 110.

How does this continue for the next 10, 15 years? I guess is what I'm getting to. Like, how does he pitch like this for the rest of his career? Go ahead. Yeah, I think that's a concern for sure. You know, that we've never seen anything like it. Nobody has tried to max out on every pitch that he throws and has been able to sustain it for any long-term, you know, period of time.

I mean, he's throwing 53 pitches in a game over 100 miles per hour. I mean, it's just ridiculous. He's a freak of nature. We've never seen anything like it. And the reality is the perceived velocity for the hitter is even higher than the radar gun reading because he's got such long extension with his stride to home plate. The ball gets on you that much. He's releasing it like seven feet four inches where the average is like six foot nine or something like that.

And so like the ball's just exploding on hitters. And I honestly, I think that somewhere along the way, I hope that they get, and they do a really good job with the pitching stuff there in Milwaukee. Their pitching lab is fantastic. But he could get guys out at 90s. 798 and save the 103 for the big moment rather than airing it out the big you know and and talking about having longer you know stamina during the course of a season and endurance longer for your career and so I think that that I think he's going to have to reconcile that and get there because if he doesn't

then we're going to have a year where he's not going to pitch because he's going to have to get something repaired with his elbow or shoulder and I don't think any of us want that including mostly him. Yeah, no kidding. And like, it's, it's kind of fascinating that we're basically in a, in kind of a stage of baseball where you got to ask guys to, like, actually pitch instead of throw. Like, that's kind of what we're indicating here, right? Like, your stuff is so nasty and you can get there where you just challenge a guy. But, you know, Maddox, and he's obviously an extreme because he's an all-time great, he was thrown in the mid to high 80s, but he was just confusing people. and I just don't know of like the young flame throwing arms,

how often that comes up and how you can change what they do in the mechanics because that's kind of what got them to the major leagues. Yeah, so when a player, you know, pitchers can get away with mistakes, the harder they throw. So they can throw one down the heart of the plate. And if you throw in 98, 99, 100, you can make a mistake and get away with it just because it's hard to time that. but hitters have gotten to the point where they can time and have caught up to the high velocity.

When I was a general manager, believe it or not, the average fastball for a right-handed, it was 90 to 92, and for a left-handed pitcher was 88 to 90. Those were the average fast. Average fastball is 95-96 right now. And it just feels like everybody's throwing 100 coming out of the bullpen. It's nearly impossible to time 105. Like you, in order to click that, you've got to get started early and you've got to swing where you think the ball is going to be instead of actually swinging at it. Which is why he's going to be so hard to hit home runs against him too.

So, but he'll only be great for the Brewers if he ends up pitching in the postseason and having that same level of, you know, success. And the more he throws 100,304, the less chance he's going to have 1003,000. 304 when the games mean the most. Great stuff, Steve, as always, appreciate you doing this. Enjoy the games tonight. We'll do it again soon. Okay, guys, you bet. Thanks for having me. There he is, Steve Phillips, or TSM Baseball Insider,

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