OverDrive - Phillips on the Blue Jays' possible playoff push, Soriano's debut and Skubal's potential Tigers return

Episode Date: August 7, 2026

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss the Blue Jays' direction for the season, if the team has a legitimate shot at going for a playoff push, Jose Soriano making his debut for Toronto, the shift of the roster, Tarik Skubal aiming for a return in Detroit and his comments on going back and more.

Jays are in Philly tonight. Here's our TSM Baseball Insider, Steve Phillips, joining us here on a Maple Toyota Hotline. How are you doing, Steve? I'm doing terrific. Thanks for having me. Yeah, thank you for doing this. So Jose Soriano making his debut tonight for the Jays.

What are you expecting and how much, you know, meaning do you put into a first impression for a new player? Yeah, I really don't put a lot of meaning for the first impression in. And, you know, guys can be great, guys can be bad. And I don't think it really tells, you know, what the story will be down the road. It's, you know, there's so much emotion we can come over to a new place and you're trying to, you know, perform to live up to some expectation. And you're trying to do more than you probably should. And so, you know, I don't put a lot in it.

But I think the one thing you will see is a lot of ground balls tonight. You know, he has, he's got the best ground ball rate of any pitcher in the American League. You know, he throws bowling balls in there, much like Framber Valdez for the Detroit Tigers. ball just sinks very difficult for hitters to get underneath it to be able to lift it. And so the infield defense should certainly be a factor in this one for sure. And look, I think he's a guy that has really emerged over the last couple of years. He's gotten better. I think that, you know, to watch him and start to least understand what they liked about

him, you'll be able to see that, whether the result is great or not. And then you're looking at a guy who will be part of this rotation for the next two years after this. And, you know, they're hoping that he'll be at the front with Dylan C's toward the front of the rotation with there as well, with Traja Savage, as he gets healthier again with a knee. So I think it'll be fun to watch them, but don't put a complete amount of stock in the results. Steve, I'm going to get way ahead of ourselves here, but that's where we're at with the Blue Jays. When I look at Soriano, I compare the situation to Jose Barrios, not the pitcher, but the situation.

You're requiring a guy in his late 20s. who's really good, who has a bit of control left, some similarities in the package even. Austin Martin for one, Nargent Amala for the other. Do you think this is a similar situation where it could lead to extension talks, given what the Blue Jays have done with Berrios, with Gosman, with Bassett, with Ryu and Cease,

all of the money they have spent on established Major League pitching? Yeah, I do think so. I mean, that's kind of the thing, right? Get the, you know, so many people are signing the 35-year-olds, and then they get surprised when they get hurt. But in my mind, let those guys walk and go back and get the next 27-year-old that you can and then lock them up for a few years. And now, you know, they did get burned a little bit by the Brios contract with his health and injury.

And, you know, so it's not playing out exactly as they would have liked. But I do think it's a very similar situation. And there you're getting a 27-28-year-old pitcher who's, you know, heading into the early prime of his career, And the goal would be to keep them through the prime of his career. The earlier you extend them, maybe the fewer years he'd be willing to take. And so, you know, you can get them to pitch. And at the end of the year, if you can get him to extend three more years beyond the two, that way you're getting him through 32, 32, 33 years old,

it's probably the best window to be able to get a pitcher like this. So in terms of, you know, other players coming up, other players trying to make an impression down the stretch, how do you balance that, Steve? like the veteran guys who have term that they kind of know they're going to be here for a while, they operate in one way, another,

you know, other guys who have maybe contracts that are expiring. You know, if you're John Snyder, and obviously you're hoping you win games and you stay in a race and they're going to say all that, you know, the right stuff publicly.

But how do you thread that needle and keep that clubhouse kind of motivated, considering you're not far away from people booking trips and realizing this thing is, is done and it's going to be over pretty soon? Yeah, I think for John Snyder, the message should be, we'll only three and a half games out. I mean, I know what moves were made. And remember a couple years ago, the Tigers, they moved Flaherty at the deadline, and they moved guys, then they made a run.

And, you know, my message would be, we're three and a half games out, and let's go. Let's win here. And I would put a win for now until the standing picktap, you know, that you're five games out, six games out, then you might give some runaway some of the key. But I think that at three and a half out, I would maintain the integrity of the pursuit of trying to get to a playoff spot. I mean, funnier things have happened. What if Laddie gets hot? And, you know, effectively, you replace Soriano or Gosman with Soriano. And if Tyone can figure his stuff out a little bit and keep it in the ballpark, who knows what can happen.

So, you know, I think that I think they should play it as they have been with the notion of, let's try to. to make a run. Let's make history. Let's make drama. Let's do something that nobody would expect and shock the world. And then if it gets to a point where it's clear that's not going to happen, then I would pivot and give more runway to the younger players. So if they do get in that position, Steve, where, I mean, they got a real tough schedule coming up and the teams ahead of them in the wild car race are playing well. If they do get to that place where they're kind of pivoting, from your perspective, who are you keeping an eye on? What kind of situations are you locked in on for the next couple or a couple months?

of the season to kind of guide what your off-season is going to look like. Sure. I think Vladdy's going to be part of that. He's got to get hot before this season ends or he'll enter next year with so much doubt. You know, because the voices have to be creeping and it sounds like, what's happened? Am I not going to be that guy ever again? Am I ever going to start to hit again?

Am I ever going to hit a home run again? Am I ever going to drive the ball again and get home? And so they need to get that resolved this year. he's got to get back on track. They're trying all the tricks. It's just going to come down to Vladdy mentally and emotionally, you know, finding a pathway because right now it's become more mental than it has anything. And then it looks, mention Miles is the guy I want to see more of.

I want to see where he fits in and things. Is he a starter for the long term? You know, how does he play into it? You know, there may be some guys to give some opportunity from AAA. And then if Anthony Santander, the doctors clear him, he needs to get in there and play every day and get at bats every day. If he's not going to play in the field, you've got a de-h. But again, that's another major investment of which they've got nothing

that they can't afford to get nothing when it comes to offensive players. And so I think that he, too, is another guy that needs to get it going and turn it around. And I think that, you know, for the Pinyango and some of those guys, I'd like to see them get a little more time. He's an intriguing player to me and to see what he can do on a more consistent basis. And so if there's others at AAA that you want to give a run to, whether Sean Keys or others, I might give them a look just to see if they can't, you know, make a name or make an adjustment that maybe they're better than what you thought.

I mean, you know, Keyes hit well at the minor league level. And so I'd love to get some more opportunities to those guys to get some of that just to see if they can't start to carry the load. And with, you know, and if it means sitting George Springer, then you sit George Springer. And, you know, I have great respect for him. I think he's a tremendous guy. I appreciate that he wanted to stay there, but he had to know that if this transitions into a place where they're not going anywhere,

they need that DH role to be able to get at bat for some of the younger players. With Steve Phillips, our TSM Baseball Insider. Louis Varland, you know, blew the save yesterday. He got hit, you know, pretty hard earlier in the week as well. He's been so brilliant this year, and he's racking up innings. But this was his first time, like, establishing himself as a closer. He didn't even start the year as a closer. They were trying to make Hoffman, you know, fit that role.

And obviously the reason Varland got there was partially because of his own performance. But I think more so because Hoffman struggled so much. So like we got to get this guy out of the ninth inning. What do you, are you a believer like this is it? This is Louis Varland. And I'm not talking about yesterday and, you know, maybe recent struggles. I'm talking the overall picture and overall production. You can lock it in.

This is what you're getting in the future. That's your closer. or is there still anything left to be debated on that front when it comes to Varland and his role in the future? Yeah, so I would, I mean, I would think that Ross Atkins will start next year with Varland as its closer. But we all know that their bullpens the area where general managers make their most mistake just because the volatility of the roles, and not just the closer but of the relievers. The workload of this group of relievers is, it's extremely. I've never seen where, you know, there's, there are 20 pitchers with, what, 48 appearances,

and they've got five of them, you know, and in all amazing baseball. And so, you know, between, you know, Rogers and when Hoffman was there and Fisher and, you know, and, in Flaherty, they've got, Fleherty, they've got so many appearances that it does make me worry. Remember, they pitched an entire month more last year. then the workload has been extraordinary this year because they weren't scoring a lot. Some of the games were close. The starters didn't go that deep into the game. So they were, you know, John Snyder.

And I don't blame John Snyder. You've got to try to win the game in front of you. And these are the guys you have. But you understand there's a price to be paid for the workload. And oftentimes it's not paid in the year in which they're pitching. It's paid to next year. And so, you know, where I would like all of these guys to be part of the solution next year, in my mind, I have to realize.

they're not all going to pitch the same next year. And there will be some vulnerability there. Steve, when you look at the rest of this AL wildcard race, we're looking at it from the outskirts and the Blue Jays need a miracle, maybe they get it, maybe they don't. But I've tried to look at this to the lens of what team actually scares you. If you are the Rangers and you're holding on that third wildcard spot right now, in your rearview mirror, you've got the twins, the guardians, the Orioles, the tigers,

and the Mariners ahead of the Blue Jays, Is there a team there that scares you a little more than the rest, one that you would have your eye on down the stretch in this race? Yeah, I think the Guardians just because they've always seemed to find a way and they find a way to turn it on the last two months of the season. And they've added at the deadline, they added some offense, they get Joe Adele, their pitching's really good. They're in Chicago this weekend or taking on the White Sox this weekend.

That's going to be a great series. White Sox limping into it after getting swept by the Red Sox. and then also going 13 innings yesterday where they used every reliever in the pen and then having a start a series against the Guardian. It's not the best way to go about it, especially if you lost because they lost the game to the Red Sox. But I think certainly the Guardians are one of those teams.

And look, the Tigers, they're going to get Jackson Joe back. Ty Melton is legitimately going to be the ace of the staff. They got River Ryan back, and at some point they'll get him active. activated in the pitching. They're the one team that is like a plus 63 run differential. They've got the third best run differential. And they're kind of in that position where the Blue Jays were back in 2015 when Alex Lopopoulos looked at it, but a lot of people thought he should sell it. He's like,

no, I'm going to go for it because we had a good run differential. We're playing better than what our record indicates. The schedule's in our favor and the schedule for the other teams and ended up catching the Yankees and went into the division. So, you know, and I say that, and it makes you think, well, geez, maybe they should have held on to school. Cooble and Casey buys. I think they can still make a run and have traded those guys. And I think they did the right thing for the long term. What are they?

They're a game and a half out of the third wild card are the Tigers. And, you know, when Scoobo was there, they were four. And so things have turned a little bit for them. Seattle should be that team, but they're as disappointing to me as the Blue Jays are this year. I don't know. I mean, you know, I thought these two teams would meet the ALCS once again and battle it out so you go to the World Series. They've been a major disappointment.

but it does feel like at any point things could click for them. Julio getting hot, a Rosarina, Cal Raleigh's starting to hit home runs, the young arms dominating, and so I don't know what to think about them as to why it's gone so badly, but, you know, there's a chance that could turn quickly.

Steve, you mentioned Terrick Scuba. I don't know if you saw his comments on part of my take. He talked about how he'd love to play his entire career in Detroit and hopefully he can pick up negotiations with the Tigers again when the playoffs are done and he'd love to return. Did those comments surprise you won because as a petting free agent,

do you not want to get as many teams involved and potentially drop up your value? But also, how do you think your new team feels with the Dodgers when you're coming out and saying how much you wish you were still in Detroit? Right. Yeah, you know, the Dodgers went through this with Freddie Freeman when he first came over there and, you know, left, the Atlanta ended up making the deal.

They said they weren't going to close the deal with him. They traded for Matt Olson. And when we got to L.A., he was still longing and, you know, for Atlanta. And I don't love it. Scoobel's agents got to put a muzzle on them right now. Like, you can't say stuff like that. And, you know, if you really wanted a hometown discount

and wanted to play Detroit that bailout, they would have found a way to make a deal. And the only thing, the only way that Scuble ends up going back to Detroit is if the collective bargaining agreement is anything like what the owner's proposal was, where there would be limits on the magnitude of any individual contract. Like their proposal to the union said the biggest contract could be six years, $265 million. If that's the case, the tigers can resign them because they're going to get subsidized in revenue sharing to be able to have the same payroll as everybody else.

But Scruble doesn't want that. He wants a $400 million contract. And I don't think there will be one more team with one more dollar than the pizzas they can sell in Detroit, at Little Caesar's Pizza to be able to keep them. So it's nice that he said it. I think it's nice to the people in Detroit, but I think that now he's got to move on and look ahead and not look behind. Even if it takes him back to Detroit later, great,

but don't keep talking about it. Yeah, and there's a part of me that if I was in Detroit, I'm like, you're just, you're trying too hard here to kind of salvage your reputation or your legacy here. He wanted to say that bad. I just was dying to be a tiger, but I guess I'm in L.A. now. And I guess I'll go and try to win a World Series as the Dodgers,

you know, game one starter, game two starter, whatever. And I understand that. Like, he obviously won a Cy Young there. He's had a great career in Detroit. But I'm not sure I'd be buying that if I were a Tiger fan. It'd probably be more thinking like just. I kind of love that stuff, though. Fans want players to miss them too.

I think so. Well, but what about when the rubber, I guess what I'm saying is when the rubber meets the road, we'll find out, you know, Because if the reports come out, hey, actually, Detroit had, you know, they had a second thought on this. And at the winter meetings, they offered a similar deal and he didn't take it. Then what's his answer? And I know that's hypothetical at this point.

But he may have to actually put up or shut up at some point. Yeah. And then it'll be interesting to see what he does because I think he really did love his time with Detroit. And I think his preference would have been not to be traded here at the deadline. It just keep trying to make a run there to see what they can do. because players don't love to be disruptive. But if you're going to be, make me a Dodger, please. And I'm signing it up for that.

I don't want to be traded from PSN, but if you do trade me, can you make me a Dodger, please? We can talk to the higher-ups about that possibly happening. Before we get you out of here, Dylan Cs, you know, added to his Cy Young resume yesterday, where do you stand on the Cy Young pursuit in the American League? Yeah, he's right there in it. I think, you know, there's still plenty of starts that, You know, a clunker here or there from anybody can change that.

But he is right there at the forefront, you know, battling for that. You know, the ERA is the critical factor there. You know, you've got the Cam Schlittlers of the world who have been so dominating as well. The strikeout numbers for C's at the top. But it'll be more than just strikeouts that will have to earn that award. It's going to come down to ERA. You know, I don't love war for pitchers at all. I don't love that.

You know, war for position players, I think it's a good statistic that people use. None of us know how it's, you know, calculated, but it seems to be the one we use to decide on a lot of the awards. So, but I think that for pitching, you know, I think it comes down to me, the rates, the ERA, the whip, you know, strikeouts per nine, the, the, you know, batting average against, all of that comes into play. And then, you know, if it's a guy pitching in big games down the stretch, that may give that pitcher an edge over somebody pitching for a team where the games don't have the same level of meeting. And so it's going to be an intriguing year with the awards. Absolutely. Great stuff, Steve. Have a great weekend.

We'll do it again soon. Okay, terrific. Thanks for having me. Have a good weekend. Steve Phillips joining us here on the Maple Toyota Hotline. IHeart Radio invites you front row for IHeart Live at the Horseshoe. With Brent Smith and Zach Myers of Shinedown. Your acoustic performances of fan favorites, second chance, a symptom of being human,

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