OverDrive - Phillips on the Blue Jays' promising outset, Guerrero Jr,'s contract value and Gimenez's first impressions

Episode Date: April 3, 2025

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around MLB, the Blue Jays' hot start to the season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr,'s contract value, Max Scherzer's nagging injury, George Springer's bounce back season, Andres Gimenez's power with the bat, the matchup against the Mets, Shohei Ohtani's clutch mentality and more.

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Is it crazy now, Steve, to look back and say that Otani should have asked for $1 billion and he should have been given $1 billion. Yeah, I mean with the level of deferrals he was willing to take and now that we see where Soto's contract went, absolutely. You know, you could have done that with the billion done to deferrals and the net present value could have been, you know, $600 million, which is still less than what Soto got. And so it's just, it's stunning what this guy,

and think about the flair for the dramatic. So it was Ohtani bobblehead day yesterday, and some kid yelled to him, hey, you know, bobblehead day, you gotta get a hit. He got three, including the walk off home run. You go back to last year, when he turned into the 40-40 player, he had a grand slam for his 40th home run. For the 50-50 year when he turned into the 40-40 player, he had a grand slam

for his 40th home run. For the 50-50 season, it was on the day that the Dodgers clinched the playoffs spot, O'Connor's first time in the playoffs, and it was the 10 RBI game with six hits and the home runs, the three homers and the stolen bases, and he became the 50-50 guy in the one day with the 10 RBI. Then he homers in his first playoff game. I mean, it's just, it's, it's unbelievable that that in the dugout, they were saying at Dodger stadium, the players were, there was not a single player who didn't doubt that he was going to end the game with one swing of the bat yesterday. It's just, he, they've grown to expect it.

And here's the thing. How is it that we all expect it and he delivers every single time? I mean really, it's kind of make believe stuff. I mean it's really very hard to believe that he can do all that he's doing in the way that he's doing it. Steve, my colleague Brian Hayes was talking about the Vladdy negotiations yesterday and he said he would love to sign Vladdy right this moment. He thinks it's time to strike well Things are ready to rock here, and I was like I got a guy That's commanding that money and it's off to a slow start. I start slow playing it myself What's the professional GM's play here when you got a guy in this situation how to handle this negotiation?

Yeah, I think that if you're gonna sign them Sign him if you're going to sign him, sign him. If you think he's worth 500 million, you know, two weeks ago, then he's worth the 500 million now. Exactly. Do you think he's worth 500 million, Steve? I mean, no, I wouldn't give it to them, but I think that they, I understand why they're going to. They may not be able to afford to give it to them, and I don't think they're going to afford not to give it to them, and I don't think they can afford not to give it to them. And I'm not sure, and I don't love the 15 years of a deal. They don't work out.

I mean, none of those position player deals have worked out, but it's the price of doing business, and he's your homegrown guy, and you need this centerpiece around which to build. I do think that taking the burden of the contract off of him will, I think, loosen up to go out and play and just not have to even think about it anymore. So as much as he says he's not, how can you not when somebody's dangling $500 million out in front of you?

But I think that, yeah, I mean, here's the thing. If he got off to a hot start, you you, you might say, okay, we wanna pay up, what if they come back and say, oh, we wanna do 600 million now. We know there are peaks and valleys, and that's why it's really difficult, though, to negotiate in season. Because you know what ends up happening is,

if you don't wanna move, you get entrenched in your position. If you're the player and you're swinging the bat, great. And if your team and the player's struggling, you get entrenched in your position. If you're the player and you're swinging the bat, great. And if your team and the player is struggling, you get entrenched in your position. That's why I never wanted to negotiate in season because the emotions of the day impact you and you can't let it because you've got six years to determine the player's value. You know, you've had them six years to know what its value is. You can't let today or yesterday dictate what its value is tomorrow. And so you've had them six years to know what its value is you can't let today or yesterday dictate what his value is tomorrow and so you've got to

try to get it done but that's why I always avoided to do these deals in season because you can get caught up in the emotions of the players performance well that I think is possibly a more pressing issue here where Shapiro Atkins can speak with his agent they can figure out certain details but at what point as a manager do you, and it's early, there are five and two, the team's off to a good start, but when do you start checking in with Ladi to wonder,

or at least be curious of the fact that maybe the contract is actually having an effect on him? It'd be great if it was a positive effect, but if it's a negative effect, that can happen. These are people we're dealing with. Like what are the check marks on that? Is it 20 games? Is it a hundred at bats?

What is it where you say, okay, I got to look at this guy and wonder myself, is he not playing up to his capability because the contract is hanging over him? Yeah. So I have that conversation in a way that isn't about the contract. You know, I do it now, just say, man, how you doing?

How you holding up? How you feeling? You feeling good? You know, I would do that check-in without attaching it to the contract conversation because as a manager, I don't really want to address that. It's not my area to address it. I just want to care about the player, and I want to take a burden off of him.

So I want to talk about how are you doing without acknowledging why you might not be doing well. So that would be one that I would be doing now, yesterday, the day before tomorrow. It's just a daily check-in. How you feeling today? How you doing? And if you start to sense anything in that response, then you can address it as opposed to taking a moment where it's this dramatic moment where, listen,

hey, call them into my office. Are you okay? Like, what's going on? Are you letting this bother you? I think you do the daily check-in with them and get going. And look, I think the good news, and I think it's great news for the Blue Jays that Vlade and Santander haven't hit yet.

I think it's great. They're five and two without them. I mean, and so in the bottom of the lineup with Springer and Rodin and Kirk and Jimenez, you know, the middle bottom of the lineup, those are the guys producing right now in Bichette's swinging the bat well that you know Vlady and Santander are gonna get going.

And so the good news is you're five and two without them and then they're gonna go. And then that's gonna make you that much better of a team. And so I really do look at it that it's good news that Vladi and Santander haven't hit yet because it speaks to the length and depth of the lineup, which is such an important thing. You know, if those guys were hitting

and everybody else was fumbling along, we might think, oh, that's great. And I gotta tell you, I don't know that it would be great because I know that those two are going to hit I don't know what the rest of the lineup is doing so the fact the rest of the lineup is doing well is I think it's probably the best thing for the Blue Jays right now. Steve there are some positives to build on and we'll get to those in a moment, but we only get to talk to you so often, so we have to do some house cleaning items. And one for me is Scherzer's thumb. Like, can you explain to me how this guy wheels out there one time and his thumb is connected

to his ribs or, like, I just find the whole thing to be wacky. And how did we get here with this guy? Tell me the breakdown of this. So the thumb is connected to the arm. And if you talk about how the thumb is, yeah, not the ribs. I mean, now in the operation game that I played, I mean, sometimes when I went for the thumb, I did hit the rib cage with the wrench in there that would set off the buzzer. But, uh...

But Steve, I guess the question I should have asked you is, were they not aware of this going into it or they wanted to take the risk? I think they knew that he had some of these issues. Look, his vulnerability is there in his transaction report. All you have to do is look at the time spent on the interlifts over the last couple of years and so you know it. And you know you listen to the player and then you know you're assuming a risk. Now it's a one-year risk and it is 15 million dollars but remember they're the same team that signed Kirby Yates a couple years ago

and they threw two pitches in spring training and they're getting Tommy Towns surgery. They didn't pitch it off for him. They paid for the surgery, the rehab, everything else and then he came back and was a great pitcher in Atlanta and then Texas and now he's a Dodger. And so, you know, they assumed a level of risk with hope that they could get, you know, you know, an impact for Scherzer in the clubhouse and everywhere else. And I think that this is one that, that, you know, when you start making deals with these one year deals with these older pitchers, you know, at some point the deterioration is going to hit, you know, and you know when you start making deals with these one-year deals with these older pitchers you know at some point the deterioration is going to hit you don't always know when uh... you know and look at the previous couple years are an indicator that you

know it's it's you know a precipitous decline but i think they thought that you know they might catch lightning in a bottle with it and uh... they don't mind having them around, you know, if he's not pitching but they need to get this thing addressed. I know he doesn't want to pitch without it being addressed because he understands that if he does pitch with the thumb issue it will lead to an elbow and a shoulder issue because you're getting, you know, the compensation for trying to throw the ball in a way that

doesn't hurt your thumb leads to pressure points and torque and issues that in other areas that could lead to more serious injuries. So I get why they're taking some time to fix it, I just don't know if it's fixable. That's, I mean, not what you wanna hear when you're talking about something like that. For a pitcher that, like we probably knew

there was gonna be some kind of baggage that he carried over, but that sounds more bleak than you would want to hear. And I guess, like, if we switch over to a good story for a veteran guy who's, you know, on the back end of his career, it's George Springer. He's got an OPS over a thousand right now, actually well over a thousand. We know that's not going to stay up there the whole season, but how important is it for George Springer to be contributing to this team this early in the season?

So I think it's great. And I think that if anybody had interest in him, I'd trade him. I would. I would. And I just mean it in a way that, you know, I just think that with the age as the season progresses, I expect the performance to decline a bit. And if he's spiking now and somebody has interest and needs a veteran outfielder, I'd be willing to move him and then take my chances with what I have and go out and try to get somebody else and mix and match a little bit. But if I can get out from underneath that money

for the next couple of years, I'd make a deal. And because I don't know that, I mean, my experience tells me that veterans can peak a little bit again and they can Return to that form but sustaining it when the body starts to deteriorate and let them down is It's you know, I expect there will be a decline in the second half of the season and it's not a knock on George Springer It's just you know father time is undefeated And you know as is gravity by the way guys, I tell you what, I went to my last physical. Where was I height wise? Where am I right now? Like what's going

on man? Gravity is undefeated. Yeah. That's beating you up. That's not good. Yeah. You got to fight back Steve. I'm putting it out there for you guys. Beware that whatever your height is right now will not be your height in 20 years I'm just like when you were the GM of the Mets you were 511 and now you're 5 7 or what the hell's going on Well, I mean I was like 5 11 and a half and now I'm 5 10 and a half I've lost a full inch and that's gravity pounding down on you and that thing is pounding down on you Yeah, basically exactly where you out This is gravity pounding down on you. And that thing is pounding down on you on daily basis. Exactly.

That can wear you out. That's the job telling you something. That's exactly it, being a GM for so long, sending you a message at some point. Yeah, it's interesting, you know, the J's at five and two and like the lineup changes, or the lineup decisions, I think when it came out opening day, you're like, all right, Pichette into Vladdy,

into Santander Okay, and then Andreas Jimenez hitting cleanup Caught the ire of a lot of people especially considering how that was just a black hole for them last year Like whoever hit fourth in this lineup was it was it was basically giving nothing To this team and now this guy has hit three home runs he's getting on base he's stealing bases I think it's similar to Springer not to the same extent but like his stats are gonna come back to earth here he's not gonna hit 65 home runs but the reasoning for it was they thought you know he can't hit for a little bit of power if he gets on base Kirk can move him over which we've seen at times

he's already again stolen some bases like this is definitely unconventional but what do you make of it and how long do you think it could last? Yeah here's the thing he's a contact guy and so you know if you get runners in scoring position between Bichette Guerrero and Santander then the contact guy is not a bad guy to have that in that fourth spot where man on third less than two outs he can pick up an RBI you know man second, it all takes a single to pick up that run. So he's a good baseball player, and I know his offense went down

the last couple years in Cleveland, but a couple years ago he had a really solid offensive season. Really good. Here's the thing, nobody maintains these elite levels of performance. Even the best players don't. There are peaks and valleys throughout the year, and what you hope is that now Springer'sers hot and then when he starts to cool off

Then you need Vlady to get hot and when Vlady has a little bit of a cool-off Santander needs to hit all runs You know the timing of when guys get hot matters And so that's why I mean like right now. It's that they're getting production from the non-Vladdy guys And the non-santander is because at some point those guys are gonna produce and then when they do cool off You're gonna need you know, you're gonna need Kirk to hit a home run and to drive in some runs You're gonna need you know Varsho to come back and get on one of those streaks. He can get on a streak He doesn't sustain it

Well, but if the timing of those streaks work out, then you can sustain an offense throughout the course of a season. You want your big guys to produce, and generally they're more consistent than everybody else, but you do want to have that length and depth of the lineup where you're not just waiting and only giving yourself, with the first three hitters, three innings a game to score runs. You want to be able to have as many innings a game where you're threatening to score. And so the idea that you can manufacture, if Jimenez is leading off an inning,

and he can get on and he can steal the base, he can get them over and get them in, that's another way to score. And that's what you need is different ways to put up a crooked number on the scoreboard. So the Jays in New York for opening day tomorrow, 3.07 first pitch, Juan Soto'll be introduced to all the fans in queens tomorrow

uh... there three and three soros off to an ok start not great not awful decent start what do you expect the five to be like tomorrow city field what do you think the ovation will be like for so doing you know what point do New York Mets fans start putting pressure on him to you know do what he's supposed to do and make sure this team's you know rocking early and often. Yeah I think

that I think the vibe is gonna be crazy I think that they're so happy they signed Soto they beat the Yankees in that negotiation you know they need Lindor to get going and Soto will go, he just needs somebody around him. Alonzo has struggled, Lindor has struggled a bit. So if somebody else gets going, Soto will, he's going to get hot. Plus, I think he's one of those guys like Otani, he knows the big moment and he doesn't let those go by. Don't be surprised if you get a home run from Soto tomorrow,

on opening day at City Field. He's one of those guys that plays to the crowd and that's going to be an opportunity for him to make a statement to Mets fans to start his time and his love affair with them. Absolutely. It will be a fun one tomorrow, Steve. Great catching up with you. Thank you for doing this. My pleasure, guys. Anytime.

There is Steve Phillips, or TSN baseball insider. That just happened with me, Vashi Capellos. Candidate decides 2025. Stay informed with my exclusive iHeartRadio podcast available Friday afternoon straight through till election day and beyond. I'll have your weekly highlights and my unvarnished analysis of the campaign of a lifetime. The candidates, the quotes, the polls, and the momentum. That just happened with Vashic Apellos. Canada decides 2025. Fresh every Friday. Stream on your schedule with the free iHeartRadio app.