OverDrive - Phillips on the Blue Jays' run production, Shapiro and Atkins' future and Bichette's rising stock

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joined OverDrive to discuss Alek Manoah's future with the Blue Jays and his quest back to the mound, the six-man rotation on the team, the offensive outline of the roster, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s notable season, the future of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, Bo Bichette's stock and more.

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Here's Steve Phillips, or TESM Baseball Insider, joining us here on the Maple Toyota Hotline. Play the role of the GM here, I guess, with Toronto, Steve. Like, Alec Manoa, his future, how you handicap the possibility that he helps your baseball club in the future. How do you approach that topic? Yeah, I think that, you know, I don't hold out a lot of hope on it. And, you know, I think that you plan that he's,

insurance, you don't plan that he's part of an answer, and you build the rotation short term and long term with him being an extra guy, not being an answer. I don't think you can plan on it. And then what happens is if he figures it out great, then you're even better than you thought. But I don't think you can have an expectation of his returning to the form that he had at his best. I just think it's been too long. Then you're dealing with injury.

I don't see him as a factor at all. year. And, you know, and again, I'm not going to judge either too harshly the velocity coming back from Tommy John's surgery. But listen, Sandy Alcantra with the Marlins, it was a Cy Young Award winner, and he's got a 70RA this year coming back from Tommy John. You know, we get spoiled by guys who come back and go right back into dealing and they look great, and Otani's pitching again and he's throwing 100. And, you know, we think everybody should be able to just bounce back. And it's just not that easy. and I'm with you

and even before he got hurt he had some issues he wasn't quite the same pitcher that he had been so I think you you know in my mind if somebody if I could have gotten John Duron for him at the deadline I would have made the trade in the heartbeat

and I don't know that that was an offer that was considered or that was there or whether Minnesota would have taken a flyer on it and they may have thought to themselves you know he'd be an extra guy in the deal we'd take him but I would have put him in a deal and not look back if I could have gotten a dominant closer. Well, and I'm in total agreement with you.

Meanwhile, Shane Bieber's coming back from Tommy John, and there's a chance he starts game one of the ALDS. So I'm curious how we kind of marry the two here. Now, his stuff has been electric. He was obviously a Cy Young winner five years ago. But where do you stand with Bieber continuously looking good? With AAA Buffalo, he'll make another start in a couple of days. And what do you think the ceiling is for him come October?

Yeah, again, you know, it's somewhat unpredictable. I love how he is looking like himself on his rehab starts. You know, he's not getting knocked around. He is throwing strikes. His velocity is generally where you would expect it to be. And so he does feel like a veteran who knows what he's doing, working his way back in. And even if he has lesser stuff, he's going to know how to pitch around it

because he's got quality secondary stuff and experience. So I'm excited about him, and, you know, we'll see what's fair to expect once he comes back and faces major league hitters, which is going to be a lot different than facing minor league hitters. But I would say that if he does factor into the rotation for the playoffs, I would strongly consider Jose Burrios taking that sweeper and making him an eighth-night inning guy. I would.

I know that he threw well again yesterday, Burrios did, but, you know, I just think that what, I think he's got a resilient arm, and he's a hard worker, and he's got that pitch that can be a swing and miss pitch coming in late, and his fastball velocity will play up if it's a one-inning spurt as well, because I think they should really start thinking about with these six starters, who and how do you factor them into your bullpen to enhance your bullpen as well. See, that seems like the big variable these next six, seven weeks with the Blue Jays. How to handle the sixth and then who to bump out, ideally at the end or if it comes sooner. And we batted around the Scherzer idea yesterday. I think he's too good. I think he just needs to start. But if you're in that GM chair again, do you ride with the six man from here on to the end and then pivot to that Brillo's idea you like?

Or how do you handle that from the start? Because it's a real wealth of talent they've got, no obvious guy. Right. So I would take it until, you know, the last couple weeks. And then if, you know, again, I want to make sure I win the division. That's number one. So I don't want to do anything that jeopardizes that. But as you get some cushion, then I would have no problem moving to a five-man with working around off days and everything else

and starting to explore a little bit with Brio. For me, with Brioz in the ninth inning. I just, I don't think Scher has the bounce back ability. from one day to the next to be able to be a reliever. And I don't think he, you know, at his age, can warm up in a way that you need it. So I don't think he factors in as a bullpen guy for me. But I think that Breos is a resilient arm. I think Lauer has done both.

So I see him in a playoff situation also going to the bullpen and then going with Gosman and Bassett and Scherzer and Bieber in that rotation. if you're going to go four, you know, or three, depending upon the series, that would be how I'd line it up. Dave, I've been told it's international left-handers day. So I wanted to ask you about Lauer because, you know, we were talking about him off the top of the show. Like, in a lot of ways, he gets the short shift on this team.

He's got the lowest ERA on the staff. He's pitch just lights out. They'd really be in a pickle without him. And he's a left-hander, which is somebody that you do not have beyond him in any significant way. Do you think there's a match-up scenario where he could factor into your top three in a playoff scenario if it was the right team

at the right time? Yeah, I think maybe. I keep an open mind about it. I don't want to be locked in on any of it. And, you know, and I want Pete Walker and John Snyder, they obviously have input into it. I'm not going to dictate, but, you know, I will suggest in a way

to try to, you know, gain some momentum about how I see it. But I can absolutely be convinced otherwise. You know, this has got to be a collective decision, not just a general manager's decision, to go in with the manager and the pitcher coach and the coaching staff as to how to line it up. And I absolutely believe, like for instance, the Baltimore Orioles aren't a playoff team, but if they were, they don't not hit left-handers at all. And in that situation, you might consider, by the way, they hit every other right-hand of the Blue Jays have.

The Orioles do, and they did this year, that Lauer might actually be the right-handers- fit against a team like that, although they're not going to be a playoff team. But, you know what I'm saying? So, yeah, matchups can matter. But I think the other thing to keep in mind is that in the playoffs, you can have a quick hook, you've got built-in off days, and Lauer could impact multiple games from the left side of right-handed starters, where you're going to get the left-hand of bats in the lineup to start the game, and then if you piggyback Lauer, you know, he could come

in on the back end of a starter and then force the other manager to make some personnel decisions mid-game and make some switches in their lineup mid-game that then set your matchups up better for later in the game. And so he could be a weapon in a lot of different ways. And I think he will be a weapon for them. He's been a real guy for this season. He was a great minor league sign to bring it on a minor league deal. And he's proven to have a big, big impact on this Steve. With Steve Phillips or TSM Baseball Insider. So Ernie Clement had a big home run last night.

It turns out after the game, John Snyder, who was in a great mood, right? Because they beat the Cubs. They actually, he missed a sign to lay down a bunt. And it worked out pretty well for them. Like everything is breaking the way of the Blue Jays right now. But I'm curious, like what, obviously it's great. He hit the home run. You win the game.

But in your experience, is that the end of it? or does the manager actually end up coming to him and saying, you know, kind of the old, hey, nice catch A's, don't ever do it again. Like, you know, great stuff. Good job. But when we lay down a signal, make sure you get it. Yeah, I think that, I actually think that the best time to find a player is after he missed the sign and had success.

Because you got the benefit of it, but it's also a reminder for him. And remember, when you make that decision, you're managing the other 25 players on the roster as well, that, you know, look, well, we have a plan. We have, you know, one you can't miss signs, two, if you get a sign, you can't ignore a sign. And so I might zing them a little fine to do that. I mean, it may be one that I give it back to them at the end of the year, but I wouldn't mind making a statement out of that, because, especially because everyone's feeling good about it, but you can make sure that the next time everybody, just paying attention to it. I think it's clear they talked about it, too,

because by the time we had gone down to the Blue Jays clubhouse, Ernie Clement was coming out to the media backdrop, which they keep outside now, and Schneider walked past, and he said, Ernie, I told them, they all know, and he broke out laughing, like, oh, man, you blew my cover there. So they definitely talked, but Ernie's such a big part of that offense. And, Steve, when I look at this offense now, first and average, first and on base percentage,

middle of the league, in home runs. It feels kind of old school, but it also feels like, an identity, and it's been very consciously done. Do you think this is an offense built for postseason games that are often so tight and lower scoring? So, you know, it's interesting. I think that the thing about the Blue Jays offense is that they don't strike out. Yeah. What we've seen over the last few years is that contact hitting offenses seem to be the most successful in the postseason

because you get productive outs. you advance runners. You can get a runner in from third and take advantage of a scoring opportunity where if you're getting swing and miss, that guy gets stranded and you don't get the run in. And so I think that is one of the best aspects of their offense. Now, there is a philosophy that in the postseason,

you need power because you realize you're facing the best pitchers in the game and you're going to have a difficult time lumping three singles together, four singles in an inning, to put up a crooked number, what you need is a bloop and a bomb. You need to take advantage of a walk and then a double off the wall. And so, you know, having that slug is valuable and important,

but they've got enough slug and enough power that, you know, especially after their slow start at the beginning of the year, when they didn't hit any home runs, I think that, you know, since they've gotten hot, their power numbers are playing, and it has length and depth throughout the lineup. So I think it is an offense that, is conducive to playoff baseball, especially because they don't swing and miss.

Well, and Vladiguro Jr., you know, personifies everything you just talked about. And you look at him right now, he had three hits again last night. He's a night or two away from a slash line of hitting 300, 400, 400 on base, 500 slugging. Like, he's got a 300, 399, 490 slash right now. He's up the 19 home run, so he's hit six since the All-Star break. You know, he's healthy. He plays every single day. like Vladdy, this is what he did last year.

Like it was a little bit more extreme last year. But in the second half, you could argue he was, he's certainly a top three batter in the game. I mean, undoubtedly, the way he was performing. And that's where he's going here again, Steve. And the power numbers aren't, then I can jump off the page. Maybe he gets to 30 by the end of the regular season,

but he's certainly going to be in the mid to high 20s. But if he's got an OPS up around 950, 975, and that's where it's trending. He gets on base a ton. He never strikes out. plays every day. I mean, Vladdy, this is why you'd pay the guy $500 million plus. Yeah, I mean, this version of him, look, when he's not his best, he's still very good.

Right. You know, we just, you know, we think about the money, we think back about when he is at his best, what it looks like. And, you know, I think that, you know, when he's not his best, he just doesn't have that complete belief that he can stay back, let the ball travel, and hit the bottom of the baseball. so he sort of gets halfway there and it changes his bat plane that gives him more of the line drive and the ground ball. And he still hits it hard. We know that. He's got one of the hardest hit rates in baseball.

And when he's right is when he can sort of sit back a little bit and you see that home run swing where he can get the upper cut to it, but he's got to wait instead of getting out in front to do there. And so I think he is getting more confidence right now. And I think it's, look, he's hustling, you know, He's running balls out. He's diving to make plays. I mean, he is, honestly, what I appreciate is he shows that he's accepting the responsibility that comes with that contract.

You know, there are times where Juan Soto doesn't really seem like he's as intense as he should be out in the outfield, right? That he's as intense as he should be running the bases. That's not Vladdy. Vladdy shows that he's accepted the responsibility that comes with being such a high-paid player. the highest-paid player on his team, one of the highest-paid players in the game, and I've got mad respect for him in that regard. Dave, you've been in the upper management ranks of a Major League Baseball team at good times and bad times.

The very good time for the Blue Jays, and yet Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins do not appear to have clarity on their long-term futures in Toronto. You know, what do you think they might be going through in that situation, given how great the season is going, and yet there is some uncertainty going forward? So, I sort of lived that myself, that I went into the 2000 season. We made the playoffs in 99. I had a year left on my deal, and the owner said, no new contracts. We're going to play out the year, and then we'll negotiate.

I'm like, well, man, we just went to the playoffs. Like, can I not get an extension? But he wanted to wait. And so we did, and we ended up going to the World Series the next year. And I was grateful that we waited because I got a bigger pay. May Day, then I would have gotten if I had taken a deal after 99. And so I think the best thing for both of them is that if the Blue Jays keep playing while, they win the division, they're going to get contract offers to stay.

And I don't know that it's tied to winning a playoff series or not. I really don't, and I don't know that it should. But I think that if they want to stay, they'll stay. And if they don't, and if they don't want to back, Mark Shapiro will get a job in baseball somewhere someday, and he might actually be commissioner of baseball at some point. Like, he's that well-respected around the game, and he's that good of baseball guy. And Ross will find a job somewhere, maybe back in Cleveland if he doesn't get a job there, as an assistant with Chris Antenetti and the guys there, Michael Turner.

But, you know, they'll both find jobs somewhere else. And so I think that's fine for them. Play it out and get a bigger payday when you have great success. Steve, if everyone is back, one of their big tickets this off-season will be Bo Bichette. And I think the Jay's success is kind of overcast that story that he is a pending free agent, but Bo is right back to all of his career norms,

hitting almost 300 with just above 800 OPS. This is the best he's looked in a couple of years here. And when I've looked at his free agency, I've always kind of roughly used that Willie Adamas deal, whether you move up or down. But we're so far inside the Bichette discourse here in Toronto every damn. I'm curious how you think the rest of the league use that value because it seems like he's a guy that can have a wide range team to team.

So, yeah, so I think that, I do think that he will get a mega contract. I think that, you know, he's going to want to shoot for Trey Turner and Zander Bogart steals and what those guys got. It's definitely going to be more than $200 million. I think the question is, you know, is he locked in to being a shortstop? You know, if he's willing to play somewhere else, then I think he draws even more teams in. I mean, 27, he'll play next year 28. I think his birthday's in March.

You know, he's got a chance to get a monster payday because he's got teams that need a shortstop that won't have interest, teams that need second base or third base. If he's willing to broaden his scope, I think they're all going to be in on it. them. So I think that it will be in the 200 plus million range, and the more he plays, and the more he performs in October, it could creep up into the mid to upper 200 plus million. And look, the Js should be able to play in that range, because it's got a chance to be up. I mean, he's going to play at 28. He's got a chance to be an 8, 9, 10-year contract. And I would have the guts to be able to give him that kind of a deal.

yeah listen they talk about continuity and you know Bo has talked about wanting to finish the job here at Vladie and he and Vladdy are very very close and to his credit he's having a great year like last year was a disaster for him a disaster a lot of that was injury based but to Bo's credit man he stayed healthy he's performing he hits like he always does and

yeah it's a huge platform for him like you get into the playoffs and you become a clutch hitting shortstop like that could elevate age you that much more, I would think. Yes. In terms of what that age you might be asking for, right, Steve? Oh, for sure. And, you know, he's a personality, too.

You know, he's a, you know, he's a guy that could be the face of your organization. He understands that when he doesn't interview, he's got to give a quote, but he doesn't say anything controversial. And so, like, there's a lot to like about him as a player. And, you know, the biggest question was health and could he get back to being who he was, and you figured if he was healthy, he could, and he's showing 100% that he can be, and so good for him. He's put himself in a position, and look, the best thing for the Blue Jays was for him to go out and play well, because it gave you a chance to win, and now you've got a chance

to identify the value, and it's a lot like Vladdy, where they had, after his year last year, it was clear that Vladdy was an upper-rash-line guy when he'd always been a little bit less than that, and now Bichette has proven that he is that level of player as well, And I think he's going to get a payday. Look, and I could see the deal getting over $300 million for him with as much competition as there could be with teams that will have interest to him, especially if he opens up his positional consideration. All right, Steve, we'll leave it there.

We'll do it again later in the week. Thank you for this. Bye, you bet. My pleasure, guys. Have a good week. Steve Phillips joining us on the Maple Toyota Hotline, Drive the Built in Canada Fuel Efficient Funded Drive Toyota Rav4. Gas or hybrid models available visit mapletoida.com. The biggest songs in the world.

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