OverDrive - Willson on NFL Wild Card Weekend, Super Bowl contenders, and OverDrive Playoff Picks

Episode Date: January 9, 2026

TSN Football Analyst Luke Willson joins OverDrive to discuss Wild Card Weekend in the NFL, including a complete Jacksonville Jaguars team hosting Josh Allen, if Justin Herbert can carry his team to the championship, and the realistic contenders for the Super Bowl this postseason. HBO and Noodlesoon also make their OverDrive Playoff Picks.

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We haven't had a chance to catch up with him this week because we had, we're on a different time on Monday. Yesterday, I guess he was preparing. I don't know what happened there. He's got bigger and better things to do. But we've got the wild card weekend here. So let's bring in our boy, Luke Wilson, and just try to get a read on how he's feeling about things.

Are you feeling confident? Like, you've been, let's face it, man. It wasn't a good year, right? Like, we just put together one of the all-time great runs, plus 21. No one's ever seen it before. but now we reset. You've been waiting for this for a long time.

A long time. Yeah, I mean, I'll address a couple of the comments there, and I've said this before. I don't think you guys have heard, but again, to me, you look at the 07 Patriots, arguably the best football team member, but nobody talks about them because they didn't win the chair. You know, you look at Golden State when they lost LeBron

on 73 games. I do not care. I wish we would have had a better regular season, But the way that our season works, we both make in the playoffs. I'm about championships. Noodles, he's about championships. I have won a championship with you, Brian Hayes. I have won a championship with the O-Dog,

and noodles and I are going to win this championship. A man who is zero rings. A man who is zero rings, his name is Al's brother. He has zero rings. Let me just ask you this. We were just talking about the great Al's brother and his competitiveness, his savvy, he just spanked you in the regular season. Does Al's brother intimidate you come playoff time?

Yes or no? No, the answer is absolutely not. He spanked you in the regular season. I got an inside track of what these guys are up to. He's basically the general manager, this guy. Yeah, he runs. He's a very important season. It does not.

Let me ask you all right now on the record. I should say when when he doesn't win when he doesn't win a playoff for the fourth season in a row does that now go to show you that this guy can't get it done this is the first time

in a while he's won the regular season he's got to be happy about that you know again I blame myself more than I credit him but you tell me I feel like it's if he doesn't win a championship this year I think you got it part ways he's John Harbaugh okay let me pose it this way

who has more pressure on them, Al's brother or Josh Allen, to have themselves a great month. Al's brother, without a doubt. House brother. All right. Let's go to Josh, though. Yes. Guys, I'll be very honest with you. This is not a good matchup for the bills.

I think they can win. And I think the bills could go to Super Bowl. But I also think this team can easily be won and done. I look at how teams are completely formulated from top to bottom, and everybody knows they have a very leaky defense. You know, they've had a couple good moments, but overall, I don't think there's any Bills fans that are really rolling in this playoffs thinking,

hey, or defense is an elite unit. Offensively, they have an unbelievable run game. I would argue that they're the best run, they have the best runners statistically in the game. You know, as far as their team rushes go, same thing, because they've got a quarterback that can also run. I believe the stat run. right now is there are two teams that didn't give up a hundred yard rusher this year,

and that was Jacksonville, and that was Seattle, and Jacksonville, I believe, hasn't given up a 75-yard runner. This team has stopped everybody in the run. Now, I don't think they've seen a team that runs it as well as Buffalo does, but that's the key matchup. As much as I want to say, oh, it's up to Josh Allen. Like, if the run game gets going, I like the bills by 10 points. I really do.

but if the run game gets stymied Josh is going to have to throw the football around and he can clearly do that but who's he thrown who consistently guys the answer's been nobody and now you look at the other side like as much as I'll say it I think Josh Allen is the best football player

on planet earth when you talk about you know everything all encompassing you talk about his ability to scramble his ability to make off-schedule throws his arm strength in general all of those things but the best football player in the last six weeks the season, and it wasn't very close, was Trevor Lawrence.

He's certainly the hottest football player right now. We'll see if he carries that, and he's got to kind of write his own narrative in the playoffs. But I think in his last six games, he had 19 touchdowns and one interception. Okay, and that's including walking into Denver and blowing the doors off of that elite defense. Okay, the whole offense, Parker Washington is their number one guy. They went out and got Jacoby Myers, very good receiver.

they started the season of Parker, or excuse me, Brian Thomas Jr. as probably their best receiving threat. I would put him at number four right now behind the tight end Brenton Strange at number three. Like this is both of these teams, and I know it's kind of crazy to say, but both of these teams have a legitimate Super Bowl shot. Now, the difference between the two of them is Jacksonville is much more complete. Josh Allen is obviously, again, the eraser of all those things. Yes, and I think there's also another element that needs to be considered. It's experience.

Liam Collins got none of it. You can say what you want about McDermott. He's been through the ringer. He's played a lot of these games. And I think you look at Buffalo, it became pretty clear New England was going to win the division. And I wonder how much, like, I don't care how they played down the stretch. I don't care what they did in week 18 weeks. It doesn't matter.

These guys have been preparing for the playoffs, and, you know, I think their defense is good enough. I don't think it's great, but I think it's good enough. I think the run game. I think Alan, I think the experience. I like the bills. I like the bills. I get what the Jags have done. I know they've won eight in a row.

They're a spicy pick. A lot of people. I see some people saying they're going to win the Super Bowl this year, like you just said. Is it possible, I guess? They have a shot. Sure. I think that applies to everyone in the AIS. Not my favorite, but they're my sleeper.

Yeah? Yeah, sure. I mean, I could see New England winning. I could see Denver winning. I could see a lot of, like, it's wide open, though, isn't it? It's wide open. Like, how many teams can't win a Super Bowl? I don't think Pittsburgh can win four games.

I'll tell you this. You know, go ahead. I would put the chargers in that category. I don't think they can. I might be giving you too much information. No, I'm with you. But I would put the chargers in that category. No way.

And then I would also put the Panthers in that category. Yes. And the NFC. Right. I think the NFC is just as wide open. I think the. Packers can make a run. I really do. I think the Bears can probably make a run.

I think that there's six teams on the other side that can all win, and there's six teams in, let's call five, I would say five teams in the AFC. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think it sets it up for, it's very difficult. People have been asking us, who do you have winning in the Super Bowl?

I don't know, man. I know that's a horrible answer, but it's all the boogeymen out of the, not in the playoffs, it's an open field. That's it. So, with Mahomes not there. That's why I would, I probably picked the bills. That would probably be my pick because of that. Go ahead, Noodles. So Herbert has no chance against May.

I wouldn't say that. To be honest with you, Noodles, I thought this was Herbert's best season that I've seen. I'm like, this guy, to me, take the numbers, take everything out of it, he has taken that step where I would consider Herbert in that upper five echelon. I thought the guy literally willed his team

to wins. But the problem is with both of their tackles out and the way they're... I mean, he's taking seven sacks a game. And there was one game, he should have been sacked 12, 15 times, I bet. But he scrambled out of them. It was miraculous. That's a very tough

way to win. Again, they could potentially beat New England. I would not guess that's going to happen. But, hey, Herbert makes some great plays. But now, all of a sudden, to do that three games in a row would be nothing short of

heroic. That's fair. So I'm not a big believer in the Chargers to make the run, but they can beat anyone because I think Herbert is that good. It's a very similar situation for the Bills. I think the Bills team has some holes in it, but they can beat everybody because of Josh. Yeah, I agree.

And then on the NSC side of things, it's interesting because the one seeds are not getting nearly as much respect as one seats in the past. When you talk about it, the way we're talking about it, that it's so wide open. What you're saying is Seattle and Denver are getable. Yet they get the buy, they get home field, and they earned it. So how much better are those two teams set up based on their situation to go on a run

compared to whoever else is going to get through this week? So we'll start with Seattle. The buy week is huge. The home field advantage is huge. But, you know, hey, obviously I'm pulling for him. You know, I'm pulling for Seattle to win. let's take an honest assessment of Seattle's last three games. You go in and you beat the Rams at home.

That was the big matchup, prime time, Thursday. If you look at the statistics of that game, remember it, the Rams beat the living hell out of Seattle. That game shouldn't have been close. The Rams are up 16 points late in that game. Seattle returns a punt. The two-point conversion hit off somebody's head when they ended up counting out.

It still landed. and someone should have jumped on it. They didn't. Correct. So there's one situation. You then go in and you score again, tip your cap to Seattle. You miss a field goal. Before that, though, I'm talking about the Rams.

Ice the game. Seattle goes, gets a two-pointer. Then the Rams go right down and score a touchdown in overtime. Like, through this number one defense, shred them. And then Sam Darnold turns into John Elway, goes right down the field, scores and wins a two-point version. Seattle turned the ball over. They had a special team's touchdown that really saved them. They had the crazy two-pointer.

That was not a dominant performance. Then you go to the next week. They go to Carolina. That game was ugly at the happen. He was like 3-3 or somewhere in that range. Carolina was really battling him. Bryce Young turned the ball over. Next C-Hawks jumped on him. And as we know, that offense

in Carolina is not great. And then you go and Seattle beats the doors off San Fran, give them all the credit in the world. But it's a bit of recency bias for me when I'm like, okay, they played unbelievable week 18. They had no business winning week 17 and week, excuse me, week 16 and week 17, they were okay. So I don't think there is the juggernaut everyone believes here. And then Denver, the looming loss late is the Jacksonville one.

You know, I sit there and say, oh, what a great defense. What a great defense. Jacksonville comes into your building and blows the doors off you to the point where now and they had to do it and they did do it. but they had to win out to get the buy. So I do think both Seattle and Denver are extremely strong. But in no world do I feel like they're a stamp it, favorite, should walk through to the Super Bowl. Again, like I'll go back to my year, the first year specifically,

we were 13, 3, got the one seat. We played New Orleans in the divisional round at home. And I remember thinking to myself, like we would have to puke all over ourselves to lose this game. Like there's just, we're just, this was peak Legion of Boom, there's no way. Now, the difference was that year we played Sam Fran, that's the infamous Shirm tip game. That in our locker room was much more of a difficult matchup than the Super Bowl was going to be.

So, Sal, I felt, I remember telling my, you know, pops out back then, right for the Super Bowl like, hey, the Super Bowl was two weeks ago, we're going to kill Denver. These didn't match up well with what we did really, really well. So I still don't think that, you know, to me, there's that kind of thing where there's two juggernauts on both sides and like this is coming down to this. I think it's completely wide open. Well, and that leads to the picks here. So the way this is going to work, there are 26 total points up for grabs throughout this whole playoff run, right? Which means every game is worth a point.

You win it, you get the point. You lose it. The other team gets it, right? All the way up to the Super Bowl. where one of us will pick the spread, that'll be worth two points. One of us will pick the total, that'll be worth two points. And then we're going to play five props. So the total of it, wild card, divisional, championship Super Bowl adds up to 26 points.

It's basically a race to 14 points. We start with six on the line this weekend. Can I ask you a question here, Hayes just to clarify this? I got an email. First was sent to a wrong email by Dooley, tried to jam me. But the email said the Super Bowl was going to be. was going to be money line, not spread. So can you confirm it spread for the Super Bowl?

Of course spread. That's what I thought. Don't blame me. This is the duty email. Yeah. Insanity. Yes. It's Panthers versus the Super Bowl.

The Pats and it's going to be a money line game. I mean, come on. Yes, it's the spread. We always play the spread. Yes. Spread. Clarified Super Bowl spread. All right.

And because we were so victorious during the regular season, just like you guys last year, we get to pick the games. So we get to pick our. first three this weekend. We'll pick the two we want the next weekend. We get the one in the championship game. Super Bowl will be different. We might, I think, we'll figure that out, but we might flip a coin for who gets the spreader,

who gets the total. So we're on three games. We're actually only going to pick two because we are going to pick the Houston-Pitsburg game. We'll do that on Monday. Okay, so that game's out of the way. Noodles were locked. We're picking that game on Monday.

I'm excited. We're picking on that game on Monday. We're going to do this in chronological order. Packers Bears is a game we're going to play. We're going to play that game, and we're taking the Green Bay Packers. We're laying the points at Soldier Field. We're taking Green Bay. The Green Bay Packers have been mailing it in down the stretch.

They played a third stringer in Week 18. Jordan Love is fine. He's been fine for weeks. He's rested. He's ready to go. Jaden Reed's good. Watson's good. They got their offensive line intact.

I don't think this Bears defense can keep up with the Packers' offense in the playoffs. rookie coach versus Lafleur who's got a lot of history there. If it wasn't for Romeo Dobbs on the Squib, they beat the Bears twice this year, including at Soldier Field where they had that game and loved left with a concussion. Not a shame to say it, Hazy, scaring me a little bit. All these games are tough. I don't love picking either. I don't like having the responsibility of being like, I want this game, that game.

All year they just come at you and we pick winners. Now there's more of a responsibility for us to try to weed through this. but Green Bay has owned Chicago forever. Under the Light, Soldier Field, Caleb Williams' first playoff game. I know Parsons isn't there. I still think the Packers' defense is good enough. We are laying the points on the road with Green Bay.

All right? That's our first game. Lock it in. Second game, and this is the last one we'll pick here, because again, we're going to pick the Monday Nighter. Bill's Jags, we're going to pick that game. And we're taking Buffalo. We're taking Buffalo.

We are on the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills are going to go in there and lay a beating on Jacksonville. Josh Allen is about to have the legacy month of legacy months. He is the best player in the world. That defense is coming alive. They mailed it in down the stretch as well. I don't trust Lawrence.

I don't trust Duvall. I don't trust Liam Cohen. I don't trust anything about the Jags. They're the Jags up against the Bills. Mahomes isn't in his way. Lamar's not in his way. Burroughs not in his way. We're laying the points.

Bills at Jaggs. Just think of their nerd coach when he got hired. Duvall. He's going to get pumped. Pumped on Sunday. Packers, Bill's, two road favorites were on them. Trevor Lawrence is Jeff Spacoli for me. I don't know if you remember the movie Fast Times.

Stoned. Stoned in the pocket. He's Jeff Spicoli. That's what he is. But he's a hell of a quarterback. He's had a great year. I'll tell you how I know. And noodles, you've played with guys like this before.

You've played with guys when they've got their 20-point league because they got up early on us. and they get to chill, to relax, and to make their comments, but now it's zero, zero. And all of a sudden, they've got to earn their keep again. And if he had a,

if Hayes had a brain, okay, he would have given me this game because he knows, if you listen to anything I say in the show, I would have taken Jacksonville. Right. So theoretically,

you would have been able to call three games. But now you're jammed. That's valid. Because you're going to lose this. You're going to lose this, and now you're giving me three shots. That's a very good point. Had you thought of that.

Al's brother jamming me up on the cruise. He probably would have considered that, but he's not around. Very good point. Although I think, even though you think the Jags are good and it's a tough matchup, I think in your heart of hearts, you think the bills are going to win that game. Anyway, that means you guys are on Rams Panthers. I think it's still Rams minus 10 and a half. Minus 10 and a half at Carolina.

Noodles, listen. This is a trap, noodles. I think the Rams are going to win the Super Bowl, but I do not think they're going to cover 10 and a half points. And I know that Hayes, Alsbrough, and O'Dong thought, hey, Matthew Stafford, he's going to go, give him this game. You're going to Carolina. Carolina beat them earlier in the year. I fully expect the Rams to win this game.

But 10 and a half in a playoff game on the road is way, way, way too much. And the Rams defense has been putrid down the stretch against everybody but the Cardinals. To me, unless you really like it. Now, Devonti Adams is back. I expect this Rams seem to be rolling. but there's just 10 and a half in a playoff game, I love the Panthers to cover the spread. That's the thing.

I don't mind that. The spread is the problem. That's the problem. We believe we know who's going to win the game. It's just the numbers. And you're reading the numbers. It's the hook for me. That's the hook.

I will go along with it. I'm fine with it. Panthers. Lock it in. Eagles, Niners. They made you sick, didn't it? That made you sick. I know you take the rounds.

I'll be honest. Eagles minus five and a half. Lines back up to five and a half. Eagles five and a half. I'll be honest, Noodles, this was, if you wanted one game that I did not want to pick, this is it.

This is to me, and I'm not just saying this. I know we love to kind of, this is the hardest game for me to put my finger on. You look at the situation with the Niners. You know, again, I'm trying to take a reasoncy bias. up until week 18, this team was potentially at one seed

to get absolutely blown out by Seattle blown out. And now everyone thinks they're garbage. Yeah. I think the Eagles definitely can win. But I like Shanahan to keep this within six points, man. I do, noodles. I like this as a field goal game. I was just going to say, if the Eagles win, it's a kick.

It's a kick in the four points. It's a kick, right? Taking the points again. I'm taking the points. I'm talking for you guys. All right. Dogs are barking. You guys are on the Niners.

I'm in it. I'm on the points. I don't think you're going to take the points here. So that means Chargers, Pats. Pats minus three and a half. Noodles, you heard me earlier? This is where the dogs are not barking for me. I think they're in New England.

I think Brable's got these boys ready to go. Drake May is either one or two at MVP voting. The Cinderella store of Justin Herbert being able to will his team to wins is coming to an end here quickly. I think it might take a bit, noodle, so I wouldn't stress. Like, we'll probably get in the group chat and Al's Bro and Hayes will probably be like,

oh, it's tied, and the charges might even be up three. But in the fourth quarter, Henderson will break one. All of a sudden, it's a four-point game. We got a strip-sack fumble, and we're up 11, and you and me are chilling. I really like the Pats to cover this. I'll take the Pats, too. That's O's former team before he

jump up. He does love the Pats. Okay, so to recap, you guys are on the Panthers? The Niners, the Patriots, and we are on the Bills and the Packers, and we'll make the Monday nighter on Monday. I love it. I love where things are at. Pretty good. Best of luck to the boys.

It's officially go time. This is our champions are made, baby. It's officially go time. The race to 14 points. Luke could see anybody. We'll catch you Monday. Cheers, guys. There's Luke Wilson.

I'm Luke Wilson. Join me each week for Film Never Lies. We're going in depth on football and a lot more. We'll pull back the curtain on life and the pros and dive deeper into the stories making the headlines. No hot takes, no lazy narratives, just real honest conversations. You can watch or listen to Film Never Lies on all the TSN platforms and IHeartRadio app.