OverDrive - Willson on the Bills and Ravens' battle, the Chiefs' three-peat search and NFL Divisional Round picks

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

TSN NFL Analyst Luke Willson joined OverDrive to discuss the NFL Divisional Round matchups, the Chiefs and Lions' dominance entering the playoffs, the Bills' matchup against the Ravens and Josh Allen's dominance, Hayes and Bro and O'Win Willson's picks and more.

Given five days or less to accept a severance offer, you need EmploymentLawyer.ca. You actually have two years to file a claim for a severance package, which can total as much as 24 months pay. Call your Sam Firu and get what you're owed. EmploymentLawyer.ca. I was getting I was rattled there cuz I was trying to make a point and I heard really vanilla and I'm all it's all good it really is obnoxious when that thing stops you in your tracks your your mid-sentence it's just get cut off just cut off completely like you shut up now because

Luke is here. Here's Luke Wilson. Luke, you answer this for us. Because we just collectively concluded, there's only one loss this weekend that would be defined as shocking. And that is if the Chiefs lost outright. Only one team losing would be labeled shocking. Would you agree with that disagree? If you disagree, what other laws or losses would you consider shocking if they were to happen? I would disagree and it would be the lions. Okay. And I'm not trying to take anything away from the commanders cause it's obviously

been like an incredible, incredible year based on where they're coming from. Rookie quarterback, new head coach, I mean The whole shebang but if this team goes in here and beats the Detroit Lions My jaw will be on the floor like that's called if you're lying you got a puke all over yourself to lose this one Yeah, all over yourself. Okay, that's reasonable. I guess what we were driving at Oh Oh drew drove it over yourself okay that's reasonable I guess what we were driving at Oh Oh drew drove it originally and then I jumped on board at noodles what was the I guess the history of the Lions you know the defense and the injuries yeah you know that that's it it would be very surprising I guess is what we're saying

but I can reason with shocking I mean there are nine and a half point favorite at home coming off a bye and they've been great for a couple of years. Totally. Yeah. Totally. All right. Okay. I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm pretty jazzed right now. I'm pretty jazzed. I got off a flight from Seattle today. My driver's license expired and they wouldn't let me renew it online. So I get out of the airport, YYZ, quick 24 hour trip. Had to pay property taxes in my new home in Ontario. I go there, I get an absolute bloodbath with the people there, because they won't accept, God knows what, I won't get into that.

In the parking lot, my tires are sliced. I end up driving home, I'm like, I've got no PSI. So then the ultimate sweat comes on, just to get the Canadian tire. I'm talking, I'm like, I think I might ruin my car. Didn't. Got the thing patched up, got issues, and I'm sitting here, absolutely jammed, and I said, this is great karma because it's been so terrible today that I'm going to go, the

rampage is going to begin, Part C. I'm going, we're getting all six points this week. I just know it. I know we are, Parts. I know we are. Wow. That's how it goes. And they were just dogging us parts on how we haven't been getting it done and that is true. But the one thing about being on Team Pro Athlete is recognition.

We know we haven't been good enough and we will start the rampage this weekend parts. Let's go. Let's go. So I got a lot to break down there quickly. Let's take two minutes on your last 24 hours. Why can't you get an Ontario driver's license? Why do you have to go to Seattle? Why do you need a State of Washington license? I don't live here after the season's done. I see.

So my residency is still in Seattle. I see. Okay. Yeah, so that's the answer to that one. All right, I got you. And someone actually slashed your tires or you just forgot to fill them? I don't know. Like what happened?

No, so you know how generally when you're driving and you get like a low tire thing, it's like, oh, you know, there's a couple PSI gone. So I'm driving home and the thing comes on. And this is, again, I just left the airport, driven 40 minutes, and I'm like, oh, that's weird. I got got you know the tire light on so I click over on my car to see like what's the PSI and I'm expecting like maybe a 25 it says 12 I'm like whoa kind of nuts yeah then I park at my house and when I get outside all I hear is and I'm this thing's gonna

be a zero very quickly. So I spun it around to a Canadian tire that was eight kilometers away, had one PSI with about four kilometers to go. And then I'm like, you know, I'm committed. I'm committed now. And I did make it there. All right. Well, listen, man, that's perseverance.

I actually, I really appreciate that. I think that possibly could be very good for you guys this upcoming weekend. And Alex Brother will join us here in a few moments. And you guys don't know the two games you're gonna pick yet. Alex Brother and I will make our two picks. But it really is a tale of two days, isn't it, Luke? Where you've got the Chiefs and Lions at home, massive favorites, one seed's coming off a bye. And then on Sunday,

even though the Eagles are pretty big favor they're six and a half point favorite I think the Rams can win that game I understand why the Eagles are favored I I would pick the Eagles to win the game but I think the Rams are capable of it and then the nightcap Ravens bills is a is a coin flip and the line would indicate that it just feels like we got to get through tomorrow and then it's kind of go time on sunday with those two games it does but it almost seems like too good to be true you know uh... in the sense of

have both those games on saturday in both games and you'll see where they fall on tip my hand here seem like a pretty easy uh... picture in my opinion but then all of a sudden you're like man this is the NFL the moment everybody kind of knows something's gonna happen I just feel like the polar opposite goes down so I'm with you it does seem like that and and

I was surprised with the Rams line as well I think the Rams are probably the most dangerous team that's not really considered a legitimate contender left, if that makes sense. Yep. And it'll be really interesting to see how that plays out. Personally, I would have read, it's just unfortunate how the cookie crumbled, but I think the better matchups in the NFC would have been the Rams versus Detroit and Philly versus Washington. I think that would have really set us up for two great ones but here we are now we'll see and I think the most exciting thing is that

I'm not just saying this we'll see how it plays out but I think the Lamar, Josh Allen, Bills Ravens has a chance to be one of the greatest games for our generation. Hartz here are you not getting a vibe? Because I was talking to Hayes about it. I get a lot of reading a little bit and people you talk to do a lot of people think Baltimore is going to crush. Do you buy into that? I do buy into that.

It's tough because I get in this know, obviously it's very bills heavy. And, you know, I'm like known as the quote unquote bills hater, but I think most bills fans know this year they've gotten me a few times. And generally, you know, I feel like I've just been honest, which is not the easiest thing to do in the Toronto market. But I look at this Baltimore team and I say to myself, like, let's start with Lamar. You know, if Lamar has the wins that Mahomes does right now, people are talking about Lamar

as the greatest quarterback of all time. You know, and that window for him winning and becoming that guy is dwindling. And it's just the reality of the situation. Am I saying that he's the greatest pocket passing quarterback of all time? Absolutely not. But the man this year just passed Mike Vick. Like Mike Vick is a name when I was a kid that is larger than life. He passed Mike Vick for quarterback rush yards.

You know, he could potentially win another MVP and it's like he's got literally everything you need checked off as far as like things to do in this league except for win a Super Bowl. And you sit here and you're like, man, you have now a generational guy in Henry, the offensive line has played well, you have the best run defense in the NFL, wire to wire.

The weakest part is their past defense, and it's gotten significantly better on the back half of the season. So if there's a team that is ready to win a Super Bowl right now, it is by far the Baltimore Ravens. I don't know what else you can do at this moment. They've played well down the stretch, they's a bumps early. Like I said,

they run the ball better than anybody. They're arguably one a compared to say Kwan Henry, I think are one a one B and you have the greatest quarterback runner of all time. And then on the flip side, you're playing outside and you've got the best run defense in the NFL. Like that is an absolute recipe for success in January. That's kind of why I think people are on that bandwagon. I can understand that.

They played earlier in the year and the Ravens destroyed Buffalo. But listen, I love the Ravens. I love the way they're playing. There's a reason it's one and a half. It's a coin flip game. I mean, it is. Everything you just said is accurate in terms of the way they've played down the stretch but I still I what I've been saying this

week Luke is if you ask me who do I have more faith in having a great game Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson I'm saying Josh Allen I'm saying I would agree I would I would totally agree with that statement but to me Allen also needs to man and I need to make up for what Derek Henry is gonna bring to the table and also what the Run defense of the of the Ravens are gonna bring to the table Like I think that the challenge of winning this game is much much harder For Josh than it is Lamar, which I think a lot of people, that's kind of why a lot of people also

lean Josh as MVP, you know? Even though Lamar's stats are better. It's like when I look at this game, if Lamar and Josh Allen play equal, I think the Ravens win. Yeah. Like, Josh has to basically out-duel Lamar and everything Lamar's got going for him. I'll say this, one thing that's not talked about enough with the Bills this year is I

believe that their plus minus ratio and turnover margin is number one in the NFL. So if there's a way where, know they can create a fumble even if they're giving them some run yards or pick Lamar off and end up plus two and Josh plays like Superman they will win this game. So again this is why I'm saying like to me I look at this and it could be a dud it could balance very clear but I also think that this has been making or the alignment of like a absolutely generational football game generation because my partner else brother

house rather uh... i love the hat had a little bit of a lot of but i think is about a year for government championship have its its Al's brother, I love the hat. I love everything about it. I got the Hazen bro down here. I forgot my championship hat. It's upstairs in the family room so the kids have to stare at it every day. Al's brother, how are you feeling before the big weekend? I feel fantastic. I really do. I'm excited for this weekend's football matchups and I feel good about our picks, Hazy B. We went back and forth. I think we talked things through. I feel confident.

I feel real confident. All right, let's begin with which games we are choosing to play here. Al's brother, do you want to take the board? We are taking one of the Saturday games, correct? Which game are we going to take? Yeah, and I want to take the Washington and Detroit game. I think that's a game that we want to take, because I feel strongly about one side over the other. Are we going right into it? Are we getting there? Are we making the picks? Go ahead, Alex Brother. Make your announcement. Alright. We are proud to select, in this one, the Washington Commanders. Oh my god.

Oh wow wow wow wow wow. The number. I'm telling you, it's going to happen. all my kid are all yours while while while while while was the number i'm telling you no it's gonna happen we can like this we can like this in record and fix the podcast because i don't think you guys are being serious right now listen else brother i mean you're there you see me here this and then i got some say after i need to hear from you know how do we get here

how do we get here else brother? I'll explain how we got here. Okay, I believe in Jaden Daniels. I think he is him He is lived up to the moment all season long. The guy has shown up late in games He last week in the playoffs. He drove down the field got a game-winning run and ended up getting that team in a field goal Position he is him and he matches up extremely well against his Detroit defense that is still very banged up, invulnerable in both the run and the passing game. You look at Detroit and how much they've struggled this year against Russian quarterbacks. They've allowed the second most yards per carry to QBs this season. The commanders are the second best run blocking win rate team they can also pass block pretty well but Jane Daniels to talk about again the matchup

here he's fared well against the Blitz this season with 110 passer rating five touchdowns no picks against five or more rushers Detroit has the fifth highest blitz rate this year and they also run more man coverage than anyone else in the league Jane Daniels nine touchdown, just one interception against man coverage this season. He matches up extremely well against this defense that has not played well at all this season. They are still incredibly banged up. And then I look at another X factor and it's your boy, Lukey backwards. Backwards. When against Jared Goff, this is is gonna be a matchup cuz Dan Quinn has dominated Jared Goff in his career Goff as a lion is 0 and 2 Against Quinn's defenses. He also lost in the playoffs years ago when he was with the Rams against Dan Quinn's defense in Atlanta

And this guy is gonna be without Kevin Zeitler big-time guard for the Detroit Lions. I think Quinn puts him in a mental pretzel I don't know if the commanders win this game, but nine and a half Hayes I'm bypassing you. I want to go to my part C thoughts and what they just did Okay, I'll be honest with you part C and you're gonna laugh because I thought we were gonna get stuck with this one So I was full on deck Lions. I'm like, there's no way, I wanna think she's not saying like, she's Dan Quinn can,

I don't know how Dan Quinn is going to slow this offense down. So do I think Jayden Daniels can score points on this defense? Yes, but the Lions, like they have the ability to score every single drive, you know, and that's where I would have went, Lions all day, Lions all day, Lions all day.

Cause I expect Detroit to put up 40, and yes, you heard me correctly, 40 points. But I will say this, again, I was sold that we would get this game. Cause I think that that line is very, very greasy. So I did reach out not to Dan, but to another member. I'll leave it at that. Who's a very close friend of mine.

And he he's biased. But he gave me he was like, listen, I think we got a shot straight up win. And he's like, I'm not just saying that. So I was going to come on here and ask you if you want to trust a player on the team Or my pick and my pick would have been the Lions the player and the commanders what thinks that they can win So I I don't know. I think it's I think it's insane to be honest with you I don't see how they're gonna stop the Lions like the Lions would have to puke all over themselves and not win this fight No backdoor covers available to with nine and a half right else, bro

Oh, yeah, that's a number the back doors alive. What about the total? It's fifty five and a half How's brother? Yeah I mean like this is this is how you have to play this Game well Strongly get it back together. I feel good about about it. I actually like the under in this game, guys. I do. Oh my God. I was talking about how both these offenses could put up points.

Hear me out. Guys, let's do it. Let's forget it. Go to commercial and we'll start it over. You guys don't have to do this. We gotta rifle through these quickly, else brother. Where are you at? I think that we're gonna see both these teams run the football efficiently.

And when you run the football it turns clock you turn clock Not a lot of possessions not a lot of points. That's really the under the crocs of my argument Which is also why I think ten points is too much So that's why I think we see the Lions win but commanders cover I agree and stay under the number twenty seven twenty one Lions under the number with a cover. All right our second game 21 Lions under the number with a cover. All right our second game Al's brother stuff these guys are gonna go nuts when they hear this. Yeah, whoo. Go ahead. Which game are we taking? Who do we like? We are gonna take the game of the century as some are calling it

We have that's right. We have the stones to do it We have the stones to do it what we have the stones to do it baltimore heading into buffalo and we are on the bill's plus points we'll be jumping through tables sunday night with the rest of the bills i want to go to commercial and forget we ever did it are you kidding me josh allen that offensive line? have you seen lamar's literally never won two playoff games in a row

literally now never ever he's gonna be freezing on Sunday night freezing on Sunday night Josh Allen's gonna go out there and absolutely cook their offensive line is gonna step up for a fight it's a massive game the atmosphere is gonna be incredible I know what Josh Allen's bringing I know what he's bringing I think he's gonna bring a lot of life I think they're gonna win the turnover battle and listen listen, Ravens are a great team. It's a tough game to pick. We have the stones to do it. That's why we're champions, right? That's why we led the charge and won the regular season by a touchdown and we punted on the K-18 so we could be ready for this

game. Bills... And I will say this, the biggest difference between the game that they played earlier in the year where the bills got ran over No, no, you know they did there's no ifs ands or buts about it The bills are without seven defensive starters including Matt Milano Terrell Bernard and Terrell Johnson There's three all under side guys. You're out of your mom. They're ready man No disrespect the disrespect that you're showing king henry in lamar is how it's outrageous about run the same that mall or a third is begun the the rampage has begun a over under a clear house brother quickly where do you

where you where's your head at this game the totals fifty one and a half on fandol weather game under fifty one and a half under that that's probably right by those i would agree that you're a right under Weather game under 51 and a half. I agree. Under. Under. That's probably the right play. I would agree. That's the right play. Okay, so that leaves you guys with Chiefs Texans, Chiefs minus 8 and a half and Eagles

minus 6 and a half against the Rams. Let's begin Chiefs Texans. Who do you like and why? Part C, feel free to come over the top on this or push back, but I have to go with Patty Mahomes. I know the number's big, but this is where I'm coming from. You look at certainly, DJ Straub, let's start there. He has had a very poor year, relatively speaking.

He has turned the ball over and he has not been accurate. He has not been an accurate thrower. Even last week in the win, you got to pick six that helped him out. There's a lot of throws he missed early. Now he made some plays with his legs, but I sit here and say, okay, you're going up against a run defense in the Chiefs that has been very very stout, and Joe Mixon is a great back, but that offensive line has not been great. So you're gonna need CJ Straub to sling the ball around. He's still a young

guy. He's got to see Steve Spagnolo's defense. He's also very very well rested I think he at least has one potentially two turnovers Can he turn back the clock to his rookie year and absolutely light it on fire? Sure, but has that happened this year? No, it is not so I love that matchup for us on the flip side. The homes knows what's going on here Okay, this is a guy who's trying to chase Tom Brady. This is a tune-up game in my opinion. That's why the line is eight and a half. You're going to sit here, Andy Rees had a ton of time to prep. Patrick Mahomes is out of time to prep. I don't understand how they don't come out here and absolutely break the doors off this team. I got Patty

Mahomes all day on that. That's how I'm feeling, Parchi. Tell me if you're on board. Did you lock that in or what? I kind of like it. The one thing I've noticed about the Chief this year, we're obviously locking it in, but no matter their opponent, they seem to find a way to beat them by three or less. Exactly. They play games all the time, but- Parsi, can I remind you when Al's brother chose to Atonga-Wailoa to cover against the

Chief last year in the playoffs for the same reason. The worst pick and overdrive history. You can't be fooled. This is playoffs Chiefs. We cannot ride with CJ Stroud in Arrowhead in January. You just simply can't do it. Okay. Chiefs eight and a half. What about the total? 41 and a half is the line over or under? Okay. The part C. I actually, this is going to be very, very big sweat, but I actually am leaning to the over 41 and a half to me.

I like this game. I think the chiefs put up somewhere around 24 or 27 points. So I sit here and say, could this be like a last minute greasy back door total? Yes. Get this thing to, you know, 27. My math is right. It's 27 19. Do it. Yeah, I think so. Oh yeah. Way over the number. But that doesn't give me my eight and a half. Yes. 28 18. Yeah. You might want to figure that one out first. I do like the 41 and a half. I think the chiefs are going to, especially with some picks, I think the chiefs will score close to 30. Okay. So that's where I'm at on on this But that's gonna be a very big sweat. I'm gonna tell you right now

We're gonna need a miracle late to get over that thing. All right, so chiefs in the over Texans now I love it. I was brother now the final game of the weekend Eagles minus six and a half against the Rams Totals 43 and a half. Who do you like on the spread first? totals forty three and a half would you like to spread first uh... party this is uh... very very tough one for me and i what i would love to hear some pushback i'm not so when anybody my my gut does lean rams cover

uh... i think that philadelphia just remain great standpoint has some issues right now in that when i mean by that is and I know he says he does all the time The idea that we're reading books on the sideline is just like I might my personal mind can't get over that I can't even imagine being a playoff game and reading a book on the sideline You know work for arms from cares it did but now we sit here and we go You know, Jaylen hurts is

What Jaylen hurts are we gonna get? get? And do I think they can win? Sure, but you take Saquon out if you can, which is gonna be very, very tough, how does this thing go down? And then the next thing I'll say is Matthew looked pretty elite last week, and obviously the Eagles have a very, very good defense, but they still have a very young secondary. So is Matthew Stafford, is he able to find a way to keep this thing within a touchdown?

My gut would say yes, but I do think the Eagles win. So if you're kind of on the vibe where you're like, man, I think the Eagles blow this out of the water, I have no problem. I have no problem going the other way. You tell me. It just seems, I don't know, part of me thinks like the rams nobody given any credit all year and me i don't know how much they deserve but but they just kept hanging around in that division and then all the side

part of me thinks it's going to be like they're going to turn into a pumpkin once they get the feeling they're going to get slaughtered but i understand stafford is your guy and will give them props to at least cover the spread. Alright, so you're on the Rams, plus six and a half totals, 43 and a half, over, under. God I hate these over, under so much, but I'm going to go over again. I'm going to go over again. I think that this one comes to 43 and a half

I think we're sitting here at 24 21 field goal wins it and we're covered that gives us a 45 I think that's what the final score is gonna end up being. All right, so the picks are in then Hazen bro are on the commanders plus nine and a half and the Bills plus one and a half and we're on the under on Both of our games you guys are on the Chiefs and the Rams and you're on the over in both of your games. Someone's got to get points this weekend, right? Someone's got to get points. We have to do something. We have to get away from the one to one score. It can't be one-one. I've got to be honest. I know it's supposed to be an advantage getting to pick your games. I don't love it. I hate it. I hate it. I hate having. I know it's supposed to be an advantage getting to pick your games I don't love I hate it. I hate it because so much I hate having I think it's a disadvantage

To have to pick the two you want because then you start overthinking it I'm concerned feel like a dummy if you get it wrong exactly this is the lack of confidence group I've ever heard like there's both sides are just like yeah Stones going edges. I hope this happens or whatever Where's the confidence? I think for both teams, I don't speak for my rivals here But generally this year like if you pick a spread you kind of sit there and you're like, oh, I missed a spread but like Fugle picker missed a kick or like

we had a bad turnover. Not often this year. I mean, there's a few times, there's a few in far between. Do you just miss by 20 points? Right. Where it's like both of us last week just got our teeth kicked in. Brutal. We were brutal last week. Like there was no sweating to spread into the fourth quarter really for anyone. Nothing. Nothing. That changes it all. Tex and Hayes in the first quarter were cooked. We're done. It's over. First quarter. And I didn't even fight back. I know. Thank you, else brother. Alright boys. Well, best of luck to everyone involved. And we'll catch you guys on the group chat tomorrow. I'm just

happy we got backward hats Dan and Vicky Fangio and Josh Allen. I feel ecstatic this weekend. We're back, we're back Al's brother. There it is Al's brother Luke Wilson.