OverDrive - Willson on the Bills' missed chances, Steelers and Ravens' matchup and the Week 17 headlines

Episode Date: December 29, 2025

TSN NFL Analyst Luke Willson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NFL, the Bills' defeat to the Eagles and going for the two-point conversion, the 49ers' massive win and Mike Shanahan leading coach of the year, the Steelers and Ravens' matchup to make the playoffs, the Packers' performances and more.

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How are you doing? It's a tough week. Tough week on the spreads. You know, it's been a tough year. But I'd like to formally congratulate you. We have been eliminated. We cannot come back. So congratulate, what do you guys go by HBO? Yeah, we go by HBO now.

Go by HBO. That's right. Waiting on Doogie. I don't know if he's got something for me, but I would like to say Yeah, it's been a tough year. I feel like the Kansas City Chiefs. But, but, there's a big but here. What do you have for us?

You know, there's an athlete. You might know him, I believe his name's Michael Jordan, you know, and he goes by us saying, it don't mean a thing without the ring. Right. And right now, you look at Al's brother, this man, and I believe yourself as well, has never won a Super Bowl in the spread calling. You guys have never won one. That's inaccurate.

That is not inaccurate. I have not won one with him. when you and I were partners before you were. Correct. We wanted that year. Correct. Yes. Yes. I forgot about it. I have one. You have been in the winner's circle before. Al's bro has not won. You got, look at that record. I'll be honest to you. You guys have been phenomenal. We have been garbage. You're plus 19.

I shake your hand. Thank you. Congratulations on winning the season. That means a lot. That being said, it don't mean a thing without the ring. I agree with you. He needs one. He's Lamar. He needs one. He's Lamar. He's Lamar. He's Josh Allen. He's Lamar. I'll further this. I'll further this and say that you guys kind of remind me great regular season. I look at the 07 Patriots.

Does anyone talk about them? No. Are they considered one of the greatest teams? No, because they didn't win it. Can't be. The 2016 Golden State Warriors. Yeah. Yeah, LeBron got them. LeBron got them. I'm telling you right now, you guys won the regular season. I've conceded. I don't care if you win by I don't know how many games are left. Well, we're racing for 20. Yeah, you're racing and I'm walking in on the play.

Okay. This does not mean the thing without the ring. All right. Al's Bro goes another year without a ring. He does need one. He needs one bad. It's like McDavid, Judge, Lamar, Al's brother. I agree.

He needs one big bad. Like Al's brothers in the same company as Aaron Judd. And this is the year to do it. I mean, we're 21, 30 and one on our side. I have been, and I've caught some bad bounces, but I have been an abomination. We have seen the board very well. To be clear, like our numbers, if you've been riding HBO all year, you're plus one. Yeah, you're making good money.

Now, is there a way where we can establish, and maybe it's later in the week, but we can establish, because there's been some controversy on how we're going to do the playoffs? Yeah, I was thinking, I got some ideas. We'll let it percolate. We'll figure something out. We'll establish it. But again, congratulations. Thank you very much.

Great season. Great season. Thank you. I love the concession. It's almost true. It's true. You guys had a great season. You started yelling at Luke about something the second he came in here.

Do you want to? Yeah. Yeah. So I was watching Bill's Eagles. and I watched the post game with you guys and Luke was like hammering the bills for going for two and I was like, what?

Yeah, we're usually on the same page. I know. We're usually thick as these. It makes a lot of sense. What is he talking about? Of course they had to go for it. That was to win the game. So I don't know that I agree.

Yeah. Can I try and sell this a bit? Yeah, because like I'm thinking they score there, it's over. Yeah. If they take it to overtime, now they've got to score again, I think I've got to stop it.

Like, it's just more complicated. Yeah. Tell me why I'm wrong. So I get that train of thought. And I also say that the fact that you missed a kick earlier, you know, it kills you. And I also say, oh, was that in the decision? We don't want to, you know, put the game in our kickers' hands. To me, if you can't have, if you miss one extra point that's shocking, you miss two that's an absolute utter embarrassment.

You need to, this is the NFL. You guys don't like kickers. You should be making extra points. You can't be like, our guy can't make an extra point. That's ridiculous. So I look at the game, this is where I think analytics fall short, is I'm sure there was some analytics to say there's X percentage that they get this two-pointer and win.

When I'm like, well, let's look at the feel of the game. Philadelphia starts the second half offensively. They get a five-play, 13-yard drive. The next four drives are three-out, three-and-out, three-out, three-out, three-n-out. Jalen Hertz through for a total of zero passing yards in the entire second half. Zero. Now you look at Josh Allen. Now they were a tough plays. I'll be honest, they made some miraculous plays. But whole momentum. The run game was starting to come to life a little bit. Four drives out. They go right down to the goal line. Fourth and goal, they get stopped. Josh Allen scramble. I think it was like two inches from scoring. Next drive they had the punt, I believe. The next two drives you go right down a field, score a touchdown. They were on the field a ton. They had dominated Philadelphia. I look at overtime and I say to myself, Jalen Hertz is having a hard time completing. a pass. It's pouring there, right?

It's pouring rain, he can't throw, they can't run, and you've gone back-to-back drives with a touchdown. I sit there and I say, if you really want to dig into the next level of analytics, you can't tell me that the percent chance of you winning an overtime was not a better percent chance than one single two-point play. Doesn't more have to go right when you go to overtime than just to score on a two-point conversion?

Yes, but I would almost say it's an argument in my favor. Because it's like more has to go right, but the chances of more going right are very high, as they've gone for most of the game. Especially since the rule changes. Like, I think you're living in an era where if you lose the coin flip, you're screwed, so go for two. Right. We're not living in that world anymore. Right. Everyone gets an opportunity.

Yes. If there was coming down to the coin flip still, I'm on the other side of the thing. We don't want to rely on a coin. But that still means I have to score and I don't have to stop them. Which, again, based on what the way. way the second half played out. And I would even argue the first half. Like, it was not an offensive performance.

It was a tough game to play it. Another counter to the counter. Yes. Alan just has to make that throw. For sure. Yeah, it wasn't a good throw. For sure. And he owned it.

But again, like, part of my point here, on Jay Show, I'm not sure which one you were watching, but I'm like, so he misses a throw. This is overtime. It's second and 10. We're still live. You know, and that's why I'm like, you have this do-or-die situation, and it was a great route, it was a bad throw, raining where I'm like, to

me, I was equate this to like being at the casino when it comes to like playing odds. When you're the casino, you want people to play longer. Because the more time you were at the casino, you're going to lose. You're going to lose. And it's like when you play a Josh Allen team and your defense

actually shows up, which they did, the longer time you're going against Josh Allen, at some point you're going to lose. So did this game, what kind of an effect did this have on you projecting what the bills are going to do in the playoffs? It had a pretty large effect, and I think it's

very clear cut. I'm not sure you guys know me. I will generally take a very firm stance, but with Buffalo, it's a bit more gray for me because we talk about margin of error and the ability to come out and consistently win football games. I think they have

the best football player on Planet Earth and Josh Allen. He can win any game any day of the week. He can make plays off schedule. He can make plays on schedule. I think the world of the guy. But that being said, I think their margin of error is very small, and it'll be tough to win if they can't run the football. And you saw that yesterday.

They've struggled to run the football. I believe James Cook got a little banged up. He obviously played. He was fine. He only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. So now of a sudden it's like, hey, our go-to running back who is leading the league in rush yards coming into yesterday is not having an explosive game.

We need to throw the football. and it was tough. I mean, even the plays they did make were Josh Allen making these miraculous throws, Cooks had a catch, Shavers had a catch, they were pretty wild. Well, Shakir, I would say. Shakir, and this is where, you guys don't me,

I like to kind of point the finger of coaches a lot, where I'm like, there almost needs to be a secondary style of offense out of Joe Brady where it's like, okay, the run game's gone, what are our core pass plays that we don't necessarily need a star wide receiver to just get this thing done. Whether that's

bubble screens, whether that's just quick outs, hey, we need something like this so we're not stymied. And again, they relied on what they always rely on those situations. Miraculous plays. Well, I do think it sets up for Alan to be

in a position where he's going to be asked to do something that is completely unfair. That's like Mahomes last year, right? Where it's like you look at the talent around him. But their defense was phenomenal. And they were at home. So the difference here is he's going to go on the road.

The defense has been very Jekyll and Hyde. You could make an argument. He's going to be asked to do something over a four-game stretch that no player has ever been asked either. Yet I don't think it's impossible that he does it. I just summed up my thoughts. Exactly. They can get bounced in the first round. They can win the

Super Bowl. But if they do win the Super Bowl, Josh Allen has got a not once, not twice, not three times, but four straight games play out of his mind. Out of his mind. And he's probably going to see some very good defenses. Not in the first run, obviously, but if they, I expect Houston to be kind of a sleeper, they run into Houston at some point. That is a nasty matchup for them. Denver is a very tough matchup for them. I would also say, like, I know you beat New England recently. You split with them on the year. Let's take things in

perspective. You're down 21-0 and then 24 to 7. I think if you're a New England fan or in the New England front office, let's call it even coaching staff, and you watch that game, you feel pretty good about playing Buffalo again. There's a couple plays here and there. So again, I think they can do it. I don't love their chances. But if he does do it, I think it'll be one of the greatest runs ever by a quarter by any player. I'm waiting for it. Um, but yeah, I mean, Strud, you got anything for us?

Yeah, last night's a pretty fun game. You know, when you watched, uh, 49ers and the bears, um, do they, does, the 49ers, are they of the top teams in that side? Do they need to win that to get the top seat? And also, what's with, uh, Brock Purdy in those moves? Like, he was, he was really feeling it last night after every good toss. I've been a, uh, staunch Brock Purdy

defender over the year. Good, without weapons. The dancing is tough to defend, though. The dancing. The dancing, as a white boy who played in this league, I always felt like, you know, we should keep the dancing to a man.

Yeah. Just come up with a cool hand shake. Yeah, you know. But that being said, I mean, when you make plays like you're watching right now, that was shades of Russell Wilson in the younger days that I played with them, you know, making guys look silly.

Oh, here we go. Oh, oh. Whoa. Hang on. Hang on, Brock. Yeah, yeah. I'll say this, though, whenever you have a Shanahan-led offense

where the run game is going and you have a quarterback that is cerebral, I go back to the Atlanta days with Matt Ryan. I can go back to Mike Shanahan's father in Denver. That offense is going to be so difficult to stop if you can establish the run. And for whatever reason, the last two weeks,

they've been able to get that done. And you talk about Sam Fran. I'll be honest. If I had a vote, I don't. No matter what happens in this last game, I'm giving Shanahan the coach the year. I'm glad to bring that up because I was having a debate with buddies about that the other day, that it never comes up.

It's been Vrable and Johnson consistently for six or seven weeks. You know, two new coaches, two teams that have not been very good the last few years, all teams winning their division. That's very significant. Bears have done it and the past. Absolutely. So all of that kind of, the narrative is right there. It's on a platter for those two guys.

But no Warner, no Bosa. Williams is another guy. Williams has been out who might be the best tackle in the league. Purdy's missed what, eight games? Yes, somewhere up there, yes. And they're playing for the one seed. I'm going to go even a little further where wide receiver room. You missed Tettle for, I think, six weeks.

I'm not sure that yesterday was six or seven. I know this guy is, you know, there's a whole. bunch of drama, but your true number one receiver is Brandon Ayyuk. He's just not even around. Speeding around the facility. Your number two receiver, I would say is Joanne Jennings, who has

missed time. Your number two B, again, assuming Ayuk was your one, is Pearsall, who I think is missed seven games. Yes, he has. Again, Mac Jones was a castaway that nobody wanted, looked awesome. It's a phenomenal job. Bosa and Fred Warner, those are

not just like two good players. Those are two the best defensive players in the league and then to add to that resume you're also playing and this is not even a question in my opinion the toughest division in the NFL right exactly Seattle and the Rams are legit correct

this isn't the Patriots when you know they were rolling through 10-15 years ago the Jets Dolphins and bad news bills back then like you're playing arguably two other teams that are considered in the top four in the league

yeah it's a phenomenal job. It's a fun, and I worry about the defense, but they're doing enough. Last night they got cooked, but they're doing it. But they made plays, you know, they don't have a pass rush, which they're not going to find, but there's a part of me that wonders if that, you know,

this goes, it's kind of counterintuitive to the way people mostly look at it, but once you if you know that, you can game plan for it. If you know what I'm saying? Like, every team's like, all right, we got to find a way to blitz. We've got to find a way to get a pass rush. It's almost like Sala and Shannon have conceded. Like, it's not going to happen. Yes.

So let's make sure the coverage is as a lead as it can possibly be. Let's make sure we attack the offense in whichever way we can to take something away from them because they know it, we know it. We're not getting after the quarterback. And get a turnover. And find a way to get a turnoff. You got to get one. Yeah.

Like it's actually simplified things. It doesn't mean it's easier. It doesn't mean that it's something they wouldn't change if they could. They'd want to pass rush if they could get it. But they're not searching for something because it's week 18 and they know it's not going to be here. And Brock Purdy, you know, I know there's a lot of controversy earlier in the year, but the last two weeks when they've needed it. He's cooking, man.

He looks really good. Has looked like a $50 million guy. Yeah, to his credit, he's been really good. But can I ask you guys, like which team would scare you more in the NFC? The Lions are the Niners? Or not the Lions, the Bears. Niners. Like, for sure?

Yes. Yeah, me too. I just look at this offense. First off, CMC is another guy where I think we've talked about him so much over the past, whatever, five years. I mean, he's incredible. And last night he didn't have as big of a game catching the football. Yes, worked on. You know, you're like, man, what a tough game.

He only scored once and had over a buck 30 on the ground. Like, that's where we're at with this guy. Like, listen, Caleb Williams looked good last night too. When he looks good, he looks great. And the bears have been impressive. But they've won a lot of tight games. They're young as well. They're young.

Very, very young. Yeah, and there's been games like they've won where Caleb has not been good. And that can't happen in the playoffs. So, you know, Purdy, you can say, the jury's out on him, well, it's definitely still out on Caleb Williams in terms of what he's going to do in the playoffs. So you know, it's interesting this

week because we've got three divisions that are still up for grabs. And I've noticed... I don't even want to watch the NFC. Shell, I'm sick of those. Well, that games out of the way first on Saturday, right? Because if the Bucks win, that means an 8-9 team is going to host a playoff game. The Bucks

who just lost to the Dolphins. Yes. And they can win, and they're going to be 8-9, and they're going to host a playoff game. That game's at 4.30. Niners Seahawks at 8.30, I believe it is, on Saturday. I've noticed people freaking out that the NFL and NBC have chosen to flex Steelers, Ravens to the primetime Sunday night football game. Why are they freaking out about that?

Because they're idiots. Win and your in is always going to win out. In terms of like the more captivating storyline. Yes, the Niners and Seahawks are playing for the number one seed. It's a big, big game. Yes. Win and you're in, losing you go home is the definition. of great TV.

Absolutely. That has to be the game. I'm going to further this, and this is a big controversial because I played for Seattle. And Seattle versus San Fran is a rivalry, especially on the West Coast. That was our big rival.

But when you think of the NFL, it doesn't get much bigger. I'd say maybe back in the day, Chicago, Green Bay, not as of recently. Maybe this year is better. But like, Baltimore versus Pittsburgh. Yes.

This is the very fabric of this league. Outside of maybe the county, Cowboys, clearly. Yes. Some of what they represent. You're 100% correct. And now you put in there that Aaron Rogers is in the game and Lamar Jackson. Do you think he's going to play Lamar?

Yeah, I do. You think he'll be any good? That's not sure. I don't know. I'm concerned about Rogers, though. Like, Metcalf completely jammed him. I agree. But listen, the last decade of his career, I'm telling you, I saw it up close and personal.

Big, big games under the lights, it has not gone well for him. For Aaron. For Aaron. That would be concerning for me That's very fair But I'm just going to put a couple more things out there Baltimore's secondary is really bad And they have some good players

But whatever's going on there I mean you saw yesterday They got cooked yesterday Or excuse me Saturday Malik Wilson looked like Mike Vic Yeah he's been on the football He's been good though Will Yeah sure

To his credit but to his credit But it's like you look at the numbers of the secondary The yards they're giving up It's not an elite unit It is not the Cleveland Browns So that's one thing I'll say and I do think Aaron will adjust their, you know, the Achilles heel against going to Cleveland was going back to the MVS well.

We kept treating MVS like he was DK. And, oh, this is the matchup we want. I'm like, this is not a fourth and goal, a fade ball to MVS against Denzel Ward is not the matchup we want. That's not good. No. So I was pretty surprised. They went, Pittsburgh yesterday went 3 of 15 on third downs and 0 for 3, I think, on 4 downs.

Every other part of their game was pretty solid. Their run game was okay. Their defense played really well. Granted was Shudor. I actually think Aaron rebounds. I'm not saying he throws the 300, but I think that they'll kind of realize, you know, we can't go in here thinking MVS is DK

and we'll have a new plan. But that's the thing. I just don't know who that's going to be. You know, like Metcalf has really jammed them up here. Jammed them. Like a complete job. I was talking on Jay Show yesterday. I'm like the MVP for the Baltimore Ravens this year

is some dummy fan. with a blue wig who's holding press conferences like an absolute troll I know what a loser what a loser press conference like begging people to leave him alone

when obviously something happened that guy I don't know what it was like so excited this has occurred yes he cannot wait he can't wait to start to it he's thinking he's gonna get when he showed up Kimmel yeah with the with the sport coat jeans

and backwards Lions hat on I'm like this is this is straight out of Saturday Night Live skit. Right in his element. Is it possible that that's going to be Roger's last game? Yeah? Like if they lose isn't it over? Possible, but I think he's coming back, man. I really, I mean,

the way Tomlin talks about him, the way he's talked. I think they like, I think they like the situation. I think both of them like, you've got to think of Tomlin too. Is Tomlin coming back? I would say yes. Because here, think about Tomlin and how he, since Big Ben, some of the names he's dealt with. Mason Rudolph.

Mays, Kenny Pickett, Russ, which Russ is a lot to deal with Justin Fields in there. It's the worst. I do find that Aaron is such a controversial figure that and everyone's guilty, myself included, we really ride this roller coaster with him week in and week out

where it's like post the bills loss, this offense has been really solid. Aaron's been good. You know, D.K.'s had a couple big games. So I think they sit there and they go, hey, you know, Aaron is, like, what are they going to do? Go into the draft. They've won too many

games. Who are going to get in the draft? Pittsburgh? They want to be competitive next year. Aaron has got, like, I don't know what other option they have. This is not the year. Back Jones, for quarterbacks, possibly. I mean, they're going to pay him. Malik Willis?

Malik Willis is going to, he's going to make some money as I wanted to ask you with that. I was shocked. It was like, they're asking LaFlor if like, Willis is going to play out of love. Is like, are you serious? Like, he was really good last year, too, in love was hurt. He played well. Love has been playing great. That's embarrassing. It's an embarrassing question to ask that, like, Love didn't play because they're not playing for

anything. Yes. They're the seven seed. They're going on the road. You're not going to see anything out of the Packers this week. They're not going to show anything in their playbook. I think they're going to play at Chicago. I think that's the hope. And I think they got a real chance of beating them. But Love, obviously, Malik Willis is not even on the radar of starting over him. But he's been a really good backup. Yeah. To his credit, I would be reluctant to say, here's the starting job for one of the 32 teams in the league.

But there's nothing wrong with being a well-paid backup in the league. You have a really good career doing that. And what's fun about Malik, and it's kind of a, you know, organizational thing. And it's very interesting where a lot of times coaches want a guy to come in and run the same offense. You know, you've got a veteran guy in there. He's going to run the same place. Sure, it's not as talented, not as electric. He's not sure and love.

And you've got to tip your cap to LaFleur. It's not the same offense with Malik in there, especially with, you know, his ability to run the football. So if you have a guy that can operate with poise like Malik Willis is doing, it almost has that shock factor where you're like, man, we've had to prep for Jordan Love. We have all this film on Jordan Love. And now we've got a new guy in here.

And it's much harder to prep because the offense is different. Now the flip side is when the offense is different and it doesn't work because you can't execute as an offense because you haven't run this style of offense. I look at the opposite. Cooper Rush this year, going in after Lamar, was really tough. It's like the opposite. Correct. Very, very, very

tough. So it does, it can come back and bite you, but clearly Malik Willis has got it done. Yeah. All right, we got Rams Falcons tonight. Yes. What is the spread here, Doogie? Is it still Rams minus 7, I think it was? That's what it is? You have

no idea. Doogie's got no clear. All right, there it is. It's Ram's 7 and a half. Thank you, Duggy. Rams minus 7 and a half. That's tough. You guys are on the clock. Is it? Well, Rams aren't I mean, to be honest, like, again, I want to bring this up. It doesn't matter, I understand. But we want

We want 20. We want a 20. You're just building momentum. Do you have the video? You don't have the video. I'll get the video. I'll say, it's Michael Jordan. Don't mean a thing without the ring. I understand that. Al's brother has never won in the playoffs. But you referenced Jordan, right? In the 97-98 Bulls,

went 72 and 10 and then got a ring. Yeah. If we go like 20 plus 20 plus 21 plus 22 and get the ring. Yeah. We basically push the bowls aside. Agreed. I agree with that. And the 72 dolphins, like all these all-time ratings.

But if you don't, you're the 2016 warriors. Yeah, we'll be forgotten. I understand that. And that's all anyone's going to talk about. Another ring for LeBron. Yeah. I'm LeBron in this situation. You're a LeBron.

I won with you. I've won with O'Dall. Yeah, Miami. And now, I'm going to win with noodles. Yeah, this is your Lakers chip. This is your Lakers chip. Dragging noodles to the finals.

Dragging him to the finals. I haven't done much. Okay, so tonight. Stafford, though, is playing for the MVP here, I guess. Yeah, I'm going to take the Rams. I'm going to take the Rams. I'm minus seven and a half. I don't feel.

So if I was a betting, man, I would definitely bet the Falcons. Yes. Because I'm probably good. Yeah, yeah. And I deserve what you're all about right now. But that being said, I'm guessing the Rams will probably miss three field goals and have a chance to, you cover this easy. I mean, they're just not playing for anything as a concern, too.

Yeah. Like, it's Seahawks or Niners are going to win the division. I'm, you know what's a tough one for me? And I get a little personal one, and I hate to bring this up, but there's a pretty intense fantasy football group here at Sports Center. And I run my mouth quite a bit, not shocking, in this group. And I'm in the final, and I was cruising. I was cruising.

Guys, and then last night I had to play Caleb and Burden. and now I'm up 39 points. Burden was awesome. I'm up 39, and the gentleman I'm going against has Williams tonight and Pitts, and I've got no one left. Oh, no. It's going to be a sweat for me, boys. It's going to be a sweat.

Well, Pitts, unless it's on fire in the state of Florida in particular, but yes, you're right. Don't say that. Listen, it's in Georgia. I think you're going to be okay. It's a big ordeal for me tonight. I think you're going to be okay. Yeah. All right, best of luck.

Best of luck. I need a bad. a thing without the rain. I agree. Really? Got it close. All right, buddy. We'll catch you later in a week.

Cheers, boys. There he is, Luke Wilson. I'm Dylan Playfair. And I'm Tyler Smith. We're putting loneliness in the penalty box by talking to some of our favorite athletes about the importance of friendship. This is bromance.

Bromance is brought to you by Charmed Diamond Center, proudly Canadian-owned and operator. Charm has been part of your love stories and bromances for over 50 years. And you can find Bromance on the IHeartRadio Network or wherever you get your podcast.