OverDrive - Willson on the Chiefs' playoff chances, Jackson's disaster game and Week 13 picks

Episode Date: November 28, 2025

TSN NFL Analyst Luke Willson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NFL, Jalen Hurts' season with the Eagles, Lamar Jackson's disastrous performance, the AFC North division favourite, the Chiefs dynasty nearing a conclusion and more.

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Restriction supply ships registered in Panama and Malta. If you smell What the Rock Is cooking What the Rock is cooking What the Rock is cooking What Luke Wilson's cooking You got to get on your A game there, JP

After you won a Super Bowl Do you guys hear any booze the next season in Seattle? That we did not We did start a bit slow the next year But righted the ship And yeah we did not Philly I heard you guys talking and Philly is a special place in that sense.

I remember, don't quote me on the year, but it was probably like 2015, 2016, somewhere in there. We went to Philly. Might actually been later than that, but we went to Philly, and I remember walking in, you know, coming out for the pre-game stuff, and everyone's running their mouths.

We come out as a team for the game, and we're getting absolutely smoked. Philly was not great that year, and after the first quarter we were getting after them, and it was the first and only time in my NFL career. where I had seen, like, I'm talking, we were nine, ten minutes into the game, and all the guys that were heckling us, started heckling their own team. It was hilarious to me.

I love it. I'm like, these guys are killing us. And nine minutes in, they're like, all right, we're done with Seattle. We're going after our own guys. As they should. Like, that's just how they operate now. Like, a lot of it, I think, is schicked. You know, it's just like that's what we're supposed to do in Philly.

We boost Santa Claus, and that's how we operate. But that said, I mean, that's just that. offense in Philly, Jalen Hertz. Like this guy talking about his career is wild and he's still likely going to play in the league for another decade. Been to two Super Bowls, won a Super Bowl. Super Bowl MVP was phenomenal in the Super Bowl last year

and yet it feels like again in Philly and elsewhere people look at him and say I just don't know what this guy's all about. Unless Seekoine Barclay is running for 2,000 yards, can this guy perform? Can he play? His wide receivers always look pissed off. Where do you, like where does he rank

for you? How would you define the season and the career of Jalen Hertz? I mean, the season has been awful. It's just like the reality, you look at even this first half, and I don't know how much you guys are paying attention, but Tony Gonzalez is talking about there's a play where Goddard's going right down the middle of the field. You know, and the issue I have is when you break down film,

there's a lot of times where you're like, oh, this guy's wide open, why didn't the quarterback see him? And the difference between when that happens, the majority of time the NFL, is it's a bus on the defense that you might not necessarily be in your progression or it's the third guy in your progression or the defensive structure says you should be looking A to B and the guy who's C just killed somebody and you missed that. But what's tough for me about Jalen Hertz is it's like what's supposed to be his first read

on a lot of these things is wide open and he doesn't get it done. Even, you know, this game's 10-3 and it feels a lot worse. But there's a play earlier, it's a third down where they have, everything they want, it's the perfect play call, and Devante Smith, you know, is wide open, and he misses him. It's a, you know, Devante tries to reach back one hand, can't get it done. If you look at that, bare a minimum, he's probably catching that and getting down to the five, maybe gets in if he makes a man miss, and instead you're settling for three points.

And again, it's just so frustrating. The weird thing about Janet Hertz is you go back to last year's Super Bowl, and you're like, man this guy is one of the best in the league and then the next week you're like this guy is one of the worst in the league and it's really that dramatic Luke we watched last night with

you know real strong attention because it's Thanksgiving game and waiting for Lamar Jackson the MVP that we've come to know to show up in Baltimore and there was no sign of that guy that I could see and what do you know Joey Burrow comes back from injury and leads

the Bengals to an unlikely blowout win over a team that a lot of people had his preseason Super Bowl favorites. How did Baltimore fall off the rails this badly, this quickly? I do wonder if there's something going on with Lamar's hamstring slash health. Since coming back, he just doesn't seem

like the exact same guy as far as like the electricity on the field. And he doesn't seem comfortable back there. I mean, the turnovers yesterday, generally Lamar has a great feel in the pocket, knows when to escape. you know, knows when he's got to kind of tuck it, take a sack, whatever. And it's like

yesterday, there were some bad turnovers. And I also thought it was a very tough day for Todd Munkin, their offensive coordinator, where it's like I'm looking at that game yesterday and I think HBO Hayes, bro, and O, is that what you guys call yourself now? It might be

changing after this week. We'll see. Yeah, I mean, all of us we're currently as a collective Ofer, and it looks like we're to continue that trend today. It's the O-Dodon. man. If he's associated with anything right now, it's poison. Guy stinks. So, but I look at that and I go, okay, you got a very weak run defense in Cincinnati.

That first drive, you know, you get the big scamper there by Henry, he goes and scores a touchdown. And then you're like, why isn't Henry playing more? Why doesn't he have more carries? Like, what is going on? So it was a tough day, I thought, from a play calling perspective there, you know, Zay Flowers had one yard going into the final few minutes of the game in which he caught an eight-yard pass and then fumbled.

Like, whenever your star-wide receiver, your number one guy has literally one yard, you got to think it's like an offensive quarter, unless they're taking them away, like you're doubling them everywhere, which this guy's not Calvin Johnson. Okay, with all due respect to Zay, I think he's unbelievable, but he's not getting doubled all over the field. So it's like, how do you have a game play?

plan where Zay Flowers has one passing, sure, excuse me, one reception yard. Like, how does that happen? It blows my mind. Well, there was a lot that came out of yesterday that blows my mind. And, you know, again, everything you pointed out

is 100% accurate. Like, once they got chased in the game, they tried to, you know, they're going to get away from Henry a little bit once you get down double digits. But there's no excuse for him not getting way more touches the second quarter to start the third quarter. But now the AFC North, again, appears to be

wide open. Like, I think it's too late for the Bengals. It's too late for the Browns. But Pittsburgh's got the bills at home this week, and as we know, the bills really struggle on the road. I don't know who's going to win that game. I lean Buffalo, but who wins the EFC North? Like, how would

you handicap this? Steelers, Ravens, where do you stand on the AFC North? I still like the Ravens, but quite honestly, I don't feel good about it. You know, I really don't. like they're not winning anything this year the way they're playing they're not winning anything no and it's one of those things where like you almost sit there and watch and think to yourself like it's almost like who's going to lose more in the aFC north right now you know like the the ravens have the awful start they come back and you're like okay this team like they're in the driver's seat and then they

have five turnovers yesterday and they lay an egg like that it's just like it it's just like it And now kind of opens the door for Pittsburgh. And I don't think Pittsburgh beats the bills either. But the matchup there is kind of solid in the sense of, you know, you got a decent run-stopping defense on the flip side. Like Pittsburgh likes to run the ball. And you're going up against an awful run defense in Buffalo. Like, I do think it'll be a tight game.

And if they, you know, if there's a turnover or a couple funky plays or Buffalo runs into the penalty issues, like Pittsburgh could easily sneak this thing now. So that's where, for me, it gets a little greasy with the AFC North right now. And then you look at, you know, what happened in the afternoon game where Kansas City, they had ample opportunity. They couldn't do it. I mean, Mahomes, I think, did everything he possibly could.

Like, he has at different times this year. But now they're 6 and 6. And you look at Dallas, Dallas is 6, 5, and 1. And they're at Detroit, the team they're chasing now all of a sudden, on Sunday night, I believe, next week. Well, that might be actually next Thursday, I think they play. Next Thursday, yeah. Okay, next Thursday.

Then they got Vikings at home, charters at home, at commanders, at Giants. Like if Dallas can go into Detroit and win, there's a chance they went out here. They got a good shot. Yeah. But here's the crazy part is, you know, you said they're six, five, and one right now, which, like, I, it's crazy say this. But I think if you look at the schedules, it's going to take 11 wins. like it's unfortunate but in the nfc it's it's a lot tougher right now but it looks to me like i do believe seattle gets to 11 and i think sam fran gets to 11 so now you look at that final

wild card spot and that's assuming the eagles don't puke all over themselves consistently and it's like okay you've got to basically catch some you know one of the nfc north teams so i'll say this you know their playoffs game for both teams i think that thursday this week, Detroit versus Dallas, it straight up is a playoff game for both teams. Losers done in my opinion. Losers knocked out of the playoffs and what's crazy though is the winner

especially if Chicago holds on to this thing, the winner still probably has to continue to win out. Yeah, well you're right. I mean the bears this was the statement game. Like there's still a half to be played. We'll see what happens in this game. But the bears pull this off. They're up to nine wins.

They're nine wins. Yeah. Yeah. Like they're right there. So again, that's why I said like 11's probably the magic number. Like, you're telling me the pack aren't getting to 11. Have you seen their schedule all coming? Right. Let's say they split with the bears. Like, both teams are going to get to 11 wins. Yep. Luke, when you look at the Chiefs, I mean,

six and six, this is the team that's been to five of the last six Super Bowls, they've got their three rings. I mean, are we seeing like a transition year here where they're going to have to move off some of their older guys? Obviously, Kelsey is heading off into Swiftyland sooner

rather than later. But, you know, Mahomes is still a stud at age 30, but they don't seem to have enough around him, or how do you interpret their struggles in a year where I think their playoff probabilities now are like 30%. Yeah, I'll say this. They have

to win out to get in, especially because their tie break right now is a bloodbath. But two of the teams in front of them, they play the next two weeks, and both those games are at home. So they lose another game. To me, they're cooked done. I'm sure, there'll be a probability, but if they lose

one more, I think they're jammed. But you look at their upcoming schedule. It's the Texans at home, which matchup-wise, I think that Steve Spagnol's defense should dominate Houston's offense. So if Mahom, like that to me has like a 1916 vibe written all over it. So you look at that and then you got the chargers right now that are really beat up also at home. Both those teams are in front of them. And then you end up with the Titans on the road, which has got to be a must win.

They've got to get that one done. And then it comes down to their last two games, which is Denver at home in Las Vegas on the road. So I'll say this. You go back to yesterday, beyond like the age of this team, these guys have 10 penalties for 119 yards. Yeah. And quite frankly, in this guy, you know, we're always pump his tires in the show. But Steve Spagnol had a very, very tough night yesterday. So I think what's got to be frustrating for Kansas City is like a lot of that is self-inflicted.

Again, you can't beat anybody. I mean, you can, but it's very tough when you spot them 119 penalty yards. So. Yeah, South's brother. Just storming through the line of scrimmage and cutting Luke off. Like, just cutting him right off at the line of scrimmage. I love that play by here.

I do have a follow-up question, though. I'm actually legitimately honest, Luke. Like, you talk about the chiefs of Mahomes and the situation they're in now, and they could possibly lose in the plot. Like, how much would that impact his legacy? Like, we're talking about him being in the Brady stratosphere the last couple of years, but you look, the offense hasn't looked all that great.

Think back-to-back seasons. They've ranked 15th in points, and they follow that up with missing the playoffs. Like, what does that do for his legacy, you think? I'll be honest with you, boys. I'm watching this game right now. Watching the Eagles makes me want to puke sometimes. It makes you want to puke. It's not even listening.

What's the matter with these guys? I can't focus. They stink. It's a valid question. It's a valid question. Outside of when Brady tore his ACL, he wasn't playing. Matt Castle still won 11 games that year. They went to the playoffs every year.

They won the playoffs every year. And here's Mahomes. And they're top ten in scoring every single year. Every single year, even when they had no high-end talent around them. And, yeah, it looks like Kansas City might miss the playoffs, which is something that Brady never did. I mean, you say that, but in the same breath, like, I think if they miss the playoffs,

one time? I mean, has Mahomes ever not been in the AFC championship? Every year he has been. Yeah. Every year. Like at this point.

And if they go 10 and 7 and this, you're like, all right, we can live with that. We can. He's got a lot of time left, too. They just, if they, if they're transitioning here. It's not him. There's been no like,

this isn't a Jalen Hertz situation where you're like, wow, he looks awful, you know. I thought he looked amazing yesterday. It just had a team that didn't quite look amazing at all. Well, that represents N. HBO, for that matter. I can't put my figure on what's changed the last couple of days, but all of a sudden we can't pick winners. Something happened.

Something happened. And anyway, somehow we're playing Niners Browns, Al's brother, because Doogie is trying to do everything he can to jam us here. We had a lock in the previous game we were going to play, Houston Indy. Like Al's brother and I saw that beautifully. clearly as you can possibly see it. But Niners laying four and a half at the Browns.

Al's brother, tremendous information. Where do you stand on this? Yeah, it's a much tougher game. So it makes sense that they had to put us on the tough one. Well, what are the Browns? You know, like they got a really good defense, but what are they exactly? They are winning at the line of scrimmage a lot. So that's ultimately what I'm looking at.

I'm looking at them. I'm looking at a game where I think it's going to be horrendous weather. I think it's going to be sleet and snow. Brock Purdy does not play well in bad weather. I think it's going to be a low-scoring game, ultimately. Four and a half points might be a bit too high of a spread. So I hate it so much, but I think I lean Browns here, Hayes. My instincts say Browns, too, just because the weather and Purdy's been so bad.

And I just, this feels like 1916, 17, 14. It feels like the Brown's defense, get after Purdy, force him into trouble. McCaffrey on a slippery field. I don't like it. He's good for him. I don't know, man. I think Judkins has himself an afternoon on the other side. I think it's just a run game. It's a special team's game. I think the home

team getting points with a very stout defense. I think we take the points here. And Shador has himself a night. He's been great against Kyle Shanahan offense. He's limiting the Niners to 15 points per game and under 300 yards in each of the

three times that he's face Shanahan's offense. so I think you add in the bad weather. Should be a close, tight game. We'll take the points. All right, we'll take the points here. We feel good because we know this guy's about to lose the Eagles pick. So it's all good. Right.

Shambles. No one's got one right this. Shambles. It's awful. It's the O-Dog curse for everybody. All right, bills minus three at the Steelers. Team Noodleson. It's weird because I really think that the Steelers should cover this, but I'm going the other way.

I'm taking the bills. You know, the bills have been bad on the road, but I, you know, you look at the run game, I think that this, this Steelers team gets jammed up here, and I think the bills actually roll. They're due, man. The Steelers' defense is not very strong. That's just, if you watch this team, the secondaries week, okay, I do think they'll get the run game going. And the only hope, especially if Buffalo gets a lead early, they'll be chasing like crazy. So I'm going to go, I'm going to go bills minus three.

Okay, I don't know if noodles will love that pick, man. The noodles will not be happy with that pick. He's an Aaron Rodgers guy. Noodles is an Aaron Rogers guy. All right, you guys want to bills laying points on the road. That's tough. Without both starting tackles, I might add. And JJ Watt, they gave up eight sacks last week.

J.J. Watt's going to have a field day. If J.J. Watt, if J.J. plays, then we really got to split out of the booth. You guys are right. You guys are right. We'll switch the pick. We'll switch the pick. Wait a minute. What? No, no, no.

No, no. No, let's go with the Steelers. No, no, no. I didn't lock it. I didn't lock it. Duke, no way. Duggy. Bills are in. I want to stealers.

You can't steal my tremendous information to make your decisions. I want the Steelers. Bills are locked in. Minutes from the team president. He said take Aaron Rogers. Oh my God. This is a controversy waiting to happen. Dougie.

There's a protest. Doogie, you make the call, man. All right, final pick before we figure out exactly what the hell just happened there. Broncos minus five and a half at the commanders. This game stinks, too. Like a Sunday night football. Why is Washington? I get what they did last year.

Flex them. Get them off Sunday night football. That's terrible. It's sickening that they're playing in prime time. Alice, brother, where we are? It's got to be Broncos, right? Like, I hate, it's a sick line. It's gross, but I think we're on the Broncos.

Broncos big, too. Like, the commander stink. Like, they've lost six in a row, and they've failed to cover in all six of those games. They've lost by an average of 15 and a half points, and you got You got Bo Nix, Sean Payton coming off a buy. You got one of the best defenses in football against Marcus Marriota. Yeah, I mean, I think the Broncos are going to win this one big. I'm surprised it's only at five and a half.

It was at six and a half for a majority of the week. I don't know why it's being bet down the other way, but I'm taking the Broncos big here. Yeah, I think it's the Broncos. Last night threw me off, man. That was such a Bengals cover. We should have known better. Short week, burrow back, divisional game. We know that house, brother.

I preach that all the time. Why were you flying with the flog out, brother? Can you remind us again why you pick the Ravens? O-Dog, that's why. I was bound, the O-Doc. He got in my head. He got my head, and he said, oh, big bounce back for Lamar and the Ravens, and I took his word forward, and I shouldn't.

If we should have stuck to the process of Hayes and Brol, like we have all season. O-Dog, O-Dog wanted to go Joe Burrow. He's a huge Joe Burrow guy. He's a poltergeist. He's a poltergeist. He's killing. Now he's a patch fan again. I mean, everything the guy represents is just crushing.

All right. Picks are locked. Picks are locked. Browns, Bills, Bills. Is that locked? Broncos. Bills. I want the Steelers. Talk to Duggy. We'll figure it out before we. We'll tweet out the official picks soon. This guy's a fraud. It's so fraudulent. It's so fraudulent. All right, boys. Have yourselves a great weekend. Bye, boys. There it is. See you, boys. Luke Wilson and Alice Brother.