OverDrive - Willson on the divisional round matchups, Allen's playoff level and NFL picks

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

TSN NFL Analyst Luke Willson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines for the Divisional Round, Sam Darnold's potential injury for the Seahawks, Josh Allen leading the Bills against the Broncos, Hayes, Bro and O and Noodlleson's picks for the matchups and more.

There he is Luke Wilson. What's up, Luke? How are we doing? I'm living large here, boys. Living large. I'm excited for today. Obviously, Newells and I, we've been in talks all day. We've been in talks all day. We've been grinding numbers and big moment here. Very big moment. All right. What do you make is Sam Darnold showing up on the injury report? It's a bit worrisome. I thought the whole thing was just handled a little strangely. It's like, okay, so we tweaked the oblique, I believe. Is that what they're officially calling it?

And then just like the media availability, and I don't love it. I don't love the whole thing, but I got a feeling the Seahawks will be okay. Oh, is that right? Okay, you feel good about the Seahawks. Interesting, okay. Played some mind games here,

early noodles and playing mind games. Very interesting. I love it. Very interesting. Well, I mean, injuries are a huge part of it, right? It sounds like Ed Oliver, I think it's been activated. for the bills. So that's a big boost on the defensive side. And Nico Collins, I believe, out for the Texans. That's a huge hit on the offensive side.

Like, we're week two in the playoffs, but it's a war of attrition, right? Like, how many guys can stay upright? Especially at this time of the year, Hayes, like, you know, it's kind of like, yeah, the season resets, it's the playoffs, but the body doesn't get that reset. And for a lot of these teams, not obviously Seattle, Denver, but it's been, you know, grind getting to this point. I look at a team like the Rams as well. It's like they had to fight their way down the stretch.

They're trying to win the division. They lose out on that. They get in. You think, oh, they got to lay up against the Panthers. That game was wildly close. They got to fly across the country there. Talking about the Carolina game. It's an interesting ordeal, you know.

And it'll be fascinating. Even Buffalo here, as much as last week, you know, they won. It was a tough game. Jacksonville gave him a lot of problems. Kind of came right down on the wire. Josh Allen played really well, and now all of a sudden you're going into Denver. It's going to be tough, boys. I know you're going to pick Buffalo, but it's a tough one. I wanted to ask you, and I'm just going to keep this general, because this is for the fans, not for anything else involved in this show. What are your thoughts on Buffalo visiting Denver? Go ahead. So I think if you watch Buffalo last week, Josh Allen right now is just playing out of his mind.

He's been like that for a lot of the year. What I get nervous about with Buffalo, and this is true transparency, not for the show. Last week, I actually thought that they'd be tough, but I thought they would win the battle in the trenches and eventually break Jacksonville's run defense and pop a few big ones. that did not happen. What surprised me about last week was how comfortable and how efficient Josh was operating inside the pocket. And where I get nervous for Buffalo this week is they're now facing the number two rush defense.

And if that run game is as non-existent as it was last week, I can say with almost 100% certainty, I'll say 99, that it will not be as easy throwing the football against this secondary with this pass rush. their defensive backs are unbelievable. I would put Sartan as the best cornerback in the game, and their pass rush is the best pass rush in the game. So that's going to cause Josh to have to really do a lot of things off schedule, which he can do.

He can definitely do. We've all seen a million times. But it's not really a great strategy when it comes to margin of error going into a game. So as boring as this sounds, O'Dong, they need to establish the run. That's just the reality of situation. I think if they get jam like they do, last week with the run game. I don't think they're going to win this game.

Now, I'm not saying they need to run for a buck 60, but if they can hover right around that, like, let's call it low 90s to a buck 10 mark. I like Buffalo. Last one of the twice, match the squad the third. Arles Filed out. There he is, John Lennon. How are we feeling else, brother?

Everything all good, or what? Everything's fantastic. We've got a big weekend divisional series coming up. I can't wait to get into these picks, man. I feel so good. I'm back. I'm off the cruise, and it's been all football this week leading up to this next little 10 minutes here, boys. Al's brother, just quickly, how would you summarize your season in totality?

Like, what kind of season do you think you had personally with your selections? Oh, I think we had a fantastic season. I mean, we're what, plus 21? Like 21 games over 500? That's nothing to sneeze it. that here like i mean that's like asking tom brady hey how you feeling going into that uh in that super ball and they're undefeated feel like it's been a pretty good season but unlike tom brady oh seven we're going to finish and get the ring the oh seven tom brady season you said it

no not oh seven what happened noodles in 2007 you guys aren't the giants i hate to break it all i'm saying is that you know what they've they've had a slow start to the first quarter of the playoff that's all it is first quarter maybe first half we're down like 10 seven going into the second quarter. Oh, it might be 283. We're the cardiac bears, boys. We're the cardiac bears. That's right.

That's right. We'll stay humble. Let's say humble. Stay humble. Stay humble. So for those that maybe are not familiar with the way this works, because we had such an electric regular season and we're the one seed, we get to choose the two games we want to play.

As a result, because there's four games this week, the other guys, Luke Noodles, Noodle's son will pick the other two games. Yeah. So we have been going back and forth all week. we have landed on our two picks, I believe. We've landed on our two games anyway. We'll get to some tremendous information in a moment. But I think we do this in chronological order.

All right, I think that makes sense. Maybe we go based on the scheduling this weekend, which means you guys are picking twice before we pick. You're on Bill's Broncos and you're on Seahawks Niners. Those are your two games. So we'll start with Broncos minus one and a half against the Bill. Noodle, son, you were on the clock. Yeah, you know, well, we just kind of talked about it.

Noodles and I, to be honest to you, boys, before I even get into this, Noodles and I had this chat, I knew these would be the two games you guys picked, because I knew that you guys wanted Buffalo, and you know that I'm not going to take Buffalo. So it's a good strategy, boys. But thank you for this absolute layup, because as you saw last week, they can't run the ball against good run defenses. Sean Payton is going to out-coach McDermott. They have the best pass rush in the game.

If it wasn't for a couple games, they'd be up there of Houston's defense statistically. Sean Payton, like I said, is going to come out here, devise a game plan to destroy this Bill's defense, and it's going to be up to Josh to even keep this thing close, and he can't sit in the pocket. Shavers just blew out his ACL. Who's he going to throw the ball to? Kincaid, let's say Kincaid gets early. Let's go back. What happened when Kelsey started going against these guys?

They move Certan on to him. If Kincaid warrants that in the second quarter, they'll make adjustments. We are Broncos all day. We are Broncos Let's Rock. I love it. I love this play. John shouted the bills as dogs. We are Broncos all day.

Josh Allen as dogs. And it's interesting to me that you didn't name one player in your assessment. There's one player in particular who you chose not to talk about. and that would be Bo Nix. And this guy's under-Pant Cam is going to be absolutely disgusting and egregious. He's going to look at Josh Allen and say, I've got to go blow for blow with Dat Cat. Their offense down the stretch.

He's going to go old dog at Top Golf. Absolutely. It'll be the O-Dog at Top Golf in Vegas. Bo Nix is going to be put in a position where he's got to put up points. I hear what you're saying about the Broncos and their defense. I'm sorry, Josh Allen, modern football. he's going to move the ball he's going to move the chains they're going to put up numbers and you're relying on bow nicks to go blow for blow at this cat i don't see it i was brother going

i'm relying on sean peyton and bo necks yeah sean peyton i get it but he's not on the field he's not on the field and what's the saying what's the saying that al's he always uses he always says the sharps the sharps i believe this was a buffalo favorite at the beginning the week was it not it flipped a complete reversal complete reversal It was. I think Ed Oliver could be a sneaky one here. You bring in Ed Oliver, you know, big defensive tackle. He was monstrous for the bills. He's a big reason why his absence as to why they've been getting ran all over. You had him back into the fold. I believe he was activated just a couple hours ago.

So he's going to be playing, man. I think that will be big to stop in the run. And then it comes down to Josh will be Josh. And we saw this matchup a year ago with Sean Payton versus McDonough. Dermann. The Bills won 31 to 7 and absolutely blew the Broncos out of the water. I think we'll see a good game, a tight game, but at the end of the day, this is the Bill's year to make it happen. I think Josh Allen does not go down. He refuses to lose.

I think the bills win this one. I really do. So thank you for the extra point. It's the same narrative as last week. The same narrative. Jacksonville, too good. Trevor Lawrence, Red Hot. Wait till you see this defense.

They're going to mall the bills. It's the exact same conversation. All right. Now we move on to the nightcap Saturday night. Rams or no, sorry, Seahawks Niners, Seahawks minus seven. So a seven-point favorite at home against the Niners. Here we go. Let's see this.

Blender brand. I'll be very honest, noodles. This is one of those things where, you know, all year, and I know this is how Al's brother makes his picks, I've been pretty adamant that the Niners are legit. At one point I had the Niners winning the NFC West. You know, so there's a lot of emotion in here to try. try and say like, ah, the Niners are going to cover the spread.

But at the end of the day, like X's and O's can only bring you so far compared to Johnny's and Joe's. Seahawks at home, this is a much, much, much, much weaker opponent when it comes to the Johnny's and Joe's. It just is. This is talking about the Niners. They're hungry. I played play out games in this building at home.

This is a massive rivalry. And if you go back to that final week of the season, that game is. should have been 30 to nothing. It was way closer than it actually was in the score. Excuse me. The score was way closer than it actually was in the field. Again, unless you have a hunch

noodles, and I will go with your hunch. If you have a hunch, it'll be close, you let me know. But I think we roll with the Seahawks minus seven. Look at that look on Al's Brosephs. He's hurt right now. He's hurt. Sorry, Al's hurt. I'm hurt. I'm with the Seahawks, too. Brock Purdy, man.

He's the magic man. Always been a believer. Always lived Brock Purdy. I've hated Brock Purdy from the word go if you want me to be perfectly honest with you. You know who we love, Al's brother, Robert Sala. Bob Sala is a big H-Bah. Always has been. Sala.

Guys, before the game, let's meet up in Al's Brothers hometown and we'll run the stairs like Sala. Love it. That's what we're going to do. Okay. We need a backdoor cover here. We should. Go up. And we need a darnal.

Let's see and ghost. He's already planting the seed. Ooh, the oblique's not feeling great. That's him. That screams planting a seed. seed, right? When he starts throwing picks, it's not his fault, it's the injury report. I'm okay with the Niners and getting

points here, Alas, brother. I love it. I wanted the Niners. We were in the text chain. I wanted the Niners, and there's a little bit of a pushback, if you will, from one of our members. So, like, all right, let's make them have this decision. I mean, it's a divisional game.

It's a third time that they've seen each other. It was O-Doc. O-Doc said that Seattle was going to destroy them. That's how he started. The word I use, gentlemen, is slaughter. Slotter. Slotter. Hold on.

I don't see that. Former parts. Right now is the moment you should be realizing you're on the wrong side. Yes, there is a good regular season. But as you saw round one, when it counts in the playoffs, you should be with the professional athletes. Well. But instead of-I-Rex, I got to tell you one thing. I know Al's brother was never a professional athlete, nor will he ever be.

But me and him are better friends than me and you ever were. We are so tight right now. And if this goes out this weekend, what do you think is going to happen? He's going to be calling you guys saying, is there a waiver claim before the championship weekend? You awake, you up? Yeah, you up. All right, moving on. Was it Eric?

Was it Eric Weddle a few years ago who just, like, jumped off the street and jumped onto a championship winning team with the Rams? Yes. Yeah. Brilliant play, man. Brilliant play. Yeah. All right. Pat's minus three at home against the Houston Texans.

I was brother, tremendous information. Yeah, you know what? Like at first I was thinking, it could be a bit of a difficult game, like that Texans, great defense. But after looking into numbers, cultivating some tremendous information, this is actually a very easy selection, fellas. A slam dunk, if you will. It hits the Patriots. Like, yeah, the Texans got a tremendous defense and an absolute unit when it comes to rushing the passer. but Drake May is the best performer under pressure we've seen this year.

He's first in the league in yardage, completions, touchdowns, and quarterback rating when under pressure. So they may be able to get after him, but he's going to start picking them apart and move the ball down the field to continue to put up points like he's done all year. MVP, Drake, Drake, Drake May, I may ask. On the other side of the ball, I mean, the Texans, that old line stinks. They can't run the ball well. Timu Stroud, as he's now being referred to as on this program. He's a shell of himself. And he'll be without his top weapon,

Nico Collins, who's declared out today. And you're going up against a defense that only allowed three points against the Chargers. Yeah, much better offense. Yeah, like, they're spectacular. Mike Rable, great coach, and he has come up big and clutch in a lot of big games.

So I think the Patriots cover this one by a field go at home with ease. Okay. I'm with you. I think we all are. Oh, you saw it the same way. We're going to lock that in. Pat's minus three. You know, both defenses are... Lay-up of the week, boys. Congratulations on winning the regular season.

Lay-up of the week. Very stout, very stout. All right, Rams minus three at the Bears. Laying three and a half in Chicago. It's a night game. It's supposed to... It will be freezing. It's Chicago in January.

It's going to be ice cold. Rams lay in three and a half. Don't forget that hook. And the weather... You guys call the Rams, and they win by three. We're going to take this one. It's a big one. It is, although it was four at one point.

Well, it's trending towards it. If you look on Fandu, I think it's minus 118 at 3 and a half. So it's kind of trending to 4, which means the sharps and the money is still putting money on the Rams. And we are going to do that as well. I think the Rams come in. Look, the Bears, it's been a nice season for them. But seven times they've had to come back late in the game and win the game. I don't see it happening.

I think that they finally get put to rest. And I think Maddie Stafford comes out and has a good game. But this is going to rely on whether or not the Rams can run the ball and protect the ball. If they can do those two things, I think they win this game with ease. And the Bears, 26th rank run defense and the Rams number one in the running game in terms of DVOA. And they protect the football. They turn it over just 15 times, the fourth fewest in the NFL. So if they can protect the ball, run the ball.

Mattie Stafford will do his thing. Pooka will do his thing. He'll find Devonte Adams for a couple of nice grabs. I think that they'll be able to put up some points here and win this one easily. Yeah, I agree. I mean, the Rams defense down the stretch has been scary. Like, it's not been positive. It was not positive last week.

It could be a shootout, but I think if it is, that still can suit the Rams. You know, I still think the Rams are in a position with their offense. I take a veteran in a game like this and Matt Stafford over Caleb Williams, regardless of how well Williams played last week. He was great. But I agree. Like, the cardiac bears, it's been a great run. Good for you.

McVeigh, Stafford, Rams, lock it in, minus. three and a half. I love us. I love us. I love us. It's tied four four going into Sunday and it's six four by Sunday night. Oh, yes. We love where we stand.

Yes. We love where we stand. All right, boys. Well, you guys have a perfect record, to your credit. You guys picked really well last week. We jammed you again this week. That will continue into next week. But the picks are as you see up on your screen.

Nootlson is on Denver and Seattle Landpoints. All four favorites were picked here. We're on New England and the Rams. So I guess the dogs are not barking as a Friday afternoon. We'll see what happens this weekend. All right, boys. Good luck. Full breakdown early next week.

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