OverDrive - Willson on the Ravens and Steelers' showdown, the NFC possible playoffs and Week 18 picks

Episode Date: January 2, 2026

TSN NFL Analyst Luke Willson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the Week 18, the Seahawks looking for a massive performance against the 49ers, the Buccaneers' playoff spot search, the Steelers and Ravens' showdown, Week. 18 picks and more.

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is cooking and there he is Luke Wilson what's going on pal nice mustache happy new year pal happy new year how's it going there house bro is 2026 the year

you get your you're picking back in order or what so it's funny because similar to your stats, you know, you left out a lot of things here, and clear you didn't listen to the last show, but if we go back in history here, all the way back when I

was partners with Hayes, won the regular season, won the Super Bowl. The following year, there's a lot of drama. I believe you got cut from a couple teams that year. It was a bit of a blood bath. Okay, we go to the next year. I'm with O'Dog. What did we do? Swept the regular

season, wasn't close. Went into the playoffs. There was some controversy. I believe that year, we ended up tying and we're supposed to have a trivia in the Super Bowl. Trivia never happened. Super Bowl is a wash. Now you go to last season. But I'm going to ask you point blank. You were with Hayes.

Did you win the Super Bowl? Did you win the playoffs? The answer is no. You are yet to win a ring. And I will, as I said to Hayes, congratulations. We had a tough year. We were the Chiefs. Yeah.

Okay. You had a career year. But similar to the 07 Patriots. to the 2016 Warriors, it don't mean a thing without the ring, boss. You can sit here in all you want. No, it's not going to be that way. I have one with Hayes,

I have one with O'Dog, and I will now win with noodles. And right now, your rings are sitting at a solid zero, boss. So keep bloating. I just don't see it happening. I just don't see it happening. Luke, I don't.

I think we're going to be to 70. You know what I'm hearing here, guys? Luke is an accusation that Al's brother might be a system quarterback needs the right system around him. Absolutely. I'm Brock Purdy. I'm Brock Purdy. I mean, that guy's played pretty well. That guy's played pretty well. He played well enough, Luke, and will he play well enough this weekend

to take the number one seed from your Seahawks? How do you see that one playing now? Probably one of the biggest games this weekend. Yeah, it's tough for me to kind of admit this, but I worry about Seattle. Now, I will say this, Seattle has been a bit of a team of destiny this year. I go back and couple weeks to the L.A. Rams game. If you look at statistically, they have no business winning that game. But then all of a sudden you get a couple bounces.

The punt return was awesome. Again, I'm talking about the Seahawks versus the Rams. They get the crazy two-pointer hit off Buddy's head and deflected forward, and then the Rams miss a kick. What I get nervous for Seattle, though, is I don't love this matchup for them. Seattle's defense is elite, but right now I would say the hottest offense in the NFL is the 49ers, especially because the last few weeks, you mentioned Purdy playing well,

but also McCaffrey has now dominated on the ground. I think early in the year, you look at McCaffrey, it's been a lot of it was through the air. Their yards per carry were very low. And for the football nerds out there, any team that Kyle Shanahan has been a part of where the run game is cooking, there's very, very little you can do

to slow that offense down. So it's good on good, I say. You know, Seahawks defense versus the Niners' offense is their two strengths of both those teams. And then I think the Seahawks offense is a bit inconsistent where the 49ers defense has been really banged up. I just in a tight matchup like this, I know you guys have the spread pick. I'm giving you a little info, but I always side with the coaching staff, and it's two tremendous coaching staffs. But I think across the board, you've got to say, I mean, I think Shanahan's probably the coach of the year. year, a little more experience of the head coaching position.

Rob Salah, I really love as a D-coordinator. And then you got the two brothers as the OCs, kind of wild. Luke, let me take you to that other Saturday game there. A little less sexy of a game. Maybe the least sexy high-stakes game of the week. But when you look at the NFC South there, Banthers Bucks, man. I feel like there's not a lot of juice with either of these teams.

It's paying me to watch Baker Mayfield this year. Kind of lose a bit of that magic, hasn't had a lot of help around them. Where do you think the energy is on that one, man? These two teams are hard to put a thumb on right now. And you said it, I think it's tough. I've watched both teams a lot this year. And the tough part

is you're kind of waiting, well, start the Panthers, you're waiting for them to, like, take that step forward. You know, and they have a couple good wins where you're like, there it is. Like, Bryce Strong's going to get called, and this seems legit. And then all of a sudden you're just like, you flip the game

on, you're like, this team is awful. They look terrible, especially offensively. And it's hard to sit there and say, man, this is a team I really want to rally around or you believe could actually make a great run. Like, can they win one game? Sure.

Are they going to win three playoff games? In my opinion, there's absolutely no shot. So now you go to Tampa, and for me, now they were decimated with injuries. That's another team who's decimated with injuries, especially on that offensive line. And it's funny because,

Because you kind of waited, and it goes to show you how much your offensive line means. Everyone wants to talk about star players, and I'm guilty. I'm the guiltiest guy because it's not as fun to talk about having an offensive line on television. But all of a sudden, we all waited for their star players to get back, and they got back, and seemingly they still think. I mean, you look at some of the quarterbacks they've lost to. It has been an abomination, and I was talking about the other day actually on my podcast, where part of my reasoning, again, the main thing is the injuries,

especially on the offensive line, but you can't run the football there. Even the games where the numbers look like, oh, they ran for 119. You know, you take out Baker's scrambles and you take out one explosive run from Rashad White on a few of these games, and the numbers are putrid. And I'm talking averaging two yards to carry. So they're just not serious contenders because Tampa Bay also has an awful defense. So I look at this thing, and I do believe that there are ways Tampa Bay can score points. We haven't seen it consistently, and can they catch lightning in a bottle?

Sure, when you have the type of players that have a receiver. But that being said, like, if you look at almost every Super Bowl bound or winning team in, let's call it the last 10 years, it's not a lightning in a bottle situation. It's a team that is built on fundamentals that has great aspects and or players within those fundamentals. And I just, I think they fundamentally are not even close to the top of the, you know, NFC right now. So, yeah, a little bit of long-winded there,

but I would say that game is going to be more of a placeholder, see who gets absolutely waxed in the first round. Yeah, that's it. And that's the thing. They win the game, and they do need a little bit of help too. So it's not winning you're in for Tampa Bay. It can be for Carolina. So Tampa plan for, you know, it is must win for them,

absolutely. Moving on, probably the biggest game of the weekend, the one that has the most important on the week 18 slate. Steelers, Ravens, sounds like Lamar Jackson is going to play. He said 100%. I'm going to be in that game. It's the 40th meeting between Tomlin and Harba. So these two teams know each other very well, and it's winning your end situation for both of these teams. I mean, how do you expect this game to play out, Luke? I'll tell you what I think on paper everyone thinks all the Ravens are going to you know roll with this thing and I'm just I don't buy that I think they can win but this is a rivalry where every game seemingly is an absolute battle even in the past

you know it seems like Tomlin for years has been able to find a way to split now obviously they won earlier this year so I think the key matchup is slowing down the Ravens run game but then I look at the last game they played the Ravens I believe that like 217 rush charge or something like that, and still loss. So, you know, Lamar, to me, is a premier guy in this league, but he has not had a great year. And generally speaking, the Ravens, as a whole, have had very bonehead moments in big games. I think turnovers, I think drops. So they've done nothing this year, and I mean nothing to really make me feel better that they

won't have those moments. And this isn't a one-time thing. I mean, Al's, bro, you can talk about some of them. It's been years of this stuff in the playoffs. Oh, yeah. You know? And I sit there and I go, okay, sure. The Steelers had a chance to beat the Browns last week and they blew it.

Well, four or five weeks ago, and they got absolutely blown out by the bills, everyone was writing them off then, and they went on a very nice winning streak, including going to Detroit and holding Jemir Gibbs and Montgomery to 12 total rush yards. Like, this team's got some juice. The problem is D.K. Metcalf has jammed them. That's just, and I obviously love D.K. I played him for a while. But some stupid Lions fan in a blue wig is currently the Ravens MVP because not having D.K., even when he's not catching the ball, is such a big ordeal for how Aaron Rogers operates.

So he's going to need, whether it's Miller, whether it's stealing, whether it's the combination of tight ends, whether it's NVS, does the opposite what he did last week. They need somebody in that receiver room to step up. this week if they won't have a chance. Yeah. If the Ravens end up winning this game, they should send a T-shirt and a hat over to that over that Detroit Lions fan. They really should. They should send them one

for that one. I do you got one more for it before we get into the picks, Luke. Week 18, often known as incentive week around the building, is what I've been told for a lot of players. You got a good story about you or a teammate really gearing for an incentive in the final game

of the season. I got a good story. I mean, I don't know if I'd say it's a good story. I, you know, my first, you know, I have incentives as a rookie. So my first four years, no incentives, my fifth year, there's like some weird kind of tender, I don't know if it's tender, if that's the right word, but anyways, it's either here nor there. We go to my sixth year, and I'm in Detroit.

And I had an option that year of going to Carolina for three years and a little bit more money. or I kind of roll the dice for a one-year deal in Detroit, and the situation was a bit better in Detroit as far. From the outside, looking in, and I remember to kind of, like, bridge the gap, they gave me a lot of these incentives, and the first few steps of them were an utter joke.

I think I have a picture of my phone still. I remember being like, man, I'm going to blow through these. Like, I'm in a better situation. I got Matthew Stafford as a quarterback. You know, this is going to be the first level for sure. I'm getting with my eyes close. I remember sitting there and I was concussed and missed the last week of the year

but going into the second last week I think we're at home against Minnesota and I just had one of the worst years statistically I ever had I remember laughing being like man it was a short time ago where I was giggling at my house being like this is free money and little did I know I would be nowhere near any of those milestones so I will say this about those incentives

you know you're pretty thrilled when guys hit them. I know there's a lot of chatter online about, you know, the gambling aspect and betting them. The teams that I've been on, really only the guys that are like core locker room guys and have really sacrificed and done a lot for the team are the ones where it's like, let's make sure this guy gets his bonus. And I have heard stories of the opposite of owners calling down being like, hey, so-and-so's a buck 10 away from getting 500,000. I don't want to pay that, so don't throw. You hear these rumblings.

Yeah. But if it's a kind of a grinder that everybody loves in the locker room, generally speaking, those will be hit if the game is in control. Yeah, a couple that I saw that are intriguing as Khalil Shakir. He needs one touchdown, so he might be an anytime touchdown guy.

Who else we got here? Dosson Knox, he's 37 yards. So if you're looking at that Bill's game, a couple plays. A couple plays. It could be having to have some incentive. bonuses kind of built in. Like you said, those are some locker room guys. I like Kenan Allen. Trey Lance was next to him in the locker room.

He was saying, hey, Trey, I need two. We need two out there. And Trey Lance is yelling back. I need a new car. This is awesome. This is great stuff. Well, that Rob Garnkowski, he gets that one grab. And he goes to the sidelines. He's like, Tom, thanks. I just made a million. He's dancing. I made him a bill. He needed one grab in that game.

His final year against the box. It was hilarious. And there'll be a lot of those those celebrations throughout week 18. All right. Speaking of week 18, Luke, it's time to get to the picks now overdrive. Brought to by Fandole, bringing you more

ways to play your game, your way. I believe we have the first game. Team HBO, we've got to run through these quick. It's Bucks. They are laying three, taking on the Panthers. I know that we talked about the Bucks and they've kind of been a bit of an abomination this year. I know that they have not been able to cover anything.

They've got one covered spread in their last 10 games. But this is a must-win game for them. It's a must-win. And lightning in a bottle, it might not allow them to have a playoff run, but I think it can allow them to come in and lay a beat down on the Panthers. They're a better team all around, top to bottom. I do believe that the Bucks at home get it done. Team HBO laying the points with the Bucks.

I mean, we'll see about that. I got a bad feeling, too. Again, you've obviously been wildly hot. Nothing worse than when you guys are reading your, or what is it called, reading your own flowers, get your own press clippings, and all of a sudden you get real cold, real quick. New Year, new squad right here for Noodle Center.

We got Seahawks Niners next. Is that correct? Yeah, and it's shifted. It's now Seahawks minus two and a half. Yeah, I feel like an absolute traitor saying this, but I'm going to go San Fran here. you know I think offensively they're rolling right now yeah and honestly the one and a half I was a little I was sweating a little more

but I do go back to 2019 I was on that squad when we lost by half a yard there was a throw to Jacob Hollister I think Fred Warner and who was Dre Greenlaw might have been the guy that kind of sandwiched him on the one I think it's going to be one of those games it's wildly close And the extra point there is kind of given me the belief that it's the safe pick to take the points here, especially at home. Well, that, and you saw what Darnold did in Week 18 last year with a shot at the number one seat on the line. You know, totally pooped himself.

So I wouldn't want to be on that side either to be completely honest with you. Packers, Vikings, I was shocked by this. There was a good debate within Team HBO and who we wanted to take. But the Packers down to their third string quarterback, Clayton Tune, is going to be their starter. And this number keeps growing. It was at six and a half and seven and a half. It's now at eight and a half over on Fandul.

And I think it's gotten to a point where I think we've got to roll at the Vikings. Team HBO is going to roll at the Vikings, J.J. McCarthy. There's an incentive also for Justin Jefferson to keep his thousand-yard streak alive. So I think they'll be feeding him the ball quite a bit. I think the Vikings can roll in this game. We're going to lay the points again with the home squad here and take the vice. Breaking my heart here, man. I know.

You don't believe in Clayton. Hayes was the guy who came over the top. Hayes was the man who had to make the choice, and he said, you know what, I'm scared of Green Bay. They have nothing to play for this week. The Vikings, if they want to keep their coach in line, maybe they have to win this week. And he's like, let's go Vikings.

I'll tell you, when Matt Lefleur turns Clayton Tune into Matt Flynn. Yeah. Six touchdowns for Clayton Tune. Here we go. Good, Lou. I'll tell you this. I don't know if I love that pick. I get the Clayton-Tune side of it,

especially when you're playing a Brian Flores-led defense. I really do. But coming off last week, how much the Packers defense was embarrassed, I wonder, like, you know, if this is kind of, we talk about those get-right moments, like heading into the playoffs.

The Pack's got to button this thing up, and they're playing kind of, you know, an offense that's been very subpar for most of the year. They've had some good moments here and there. Divisional game. A and a half's a lot of points. I'm just saying if bake doesn't come through here, we can have a nice three game start to this final weekend, baby.

We'll see. We'll see. All right, quickly. Chargers, Broncos. And this one's become a decent size spread as well, if I'm not mistaken here. What do we got Chargers? Yeah, I'm going to go.

I'm going to go Broncos. I'll tell you why. Now I got jammed when they play the Chiefs, but I believe the Chargers. The margins are arresting everybody that they can. Herbert's not playing, and the Broncos got to win. They want the one seed. They want to buy.

And you don't, you know, they're probably hoping they can rest guys at a certain point. But 14 points ain't enough time to rest guys unless it's late in the fourth quarter. So they're hoping to get up 21, 28. I mean, that's a big spread, though, Lou. Tray Lance could get a little nasty. Big spread. I can't sit here and say, you've got a team fighting for the one seed when they lead defense. and we're starting our backup quarterback and probably a lot of other backups

or even starters will play a bit but be rotating. I think Denver comes out here and make sure they secure the one seed and it gets kind of ugly early. And the Sunday nighter, it'll be the final team to make the playoffs. I think it's the Steelers at home. I'll take the Steelers and take the points. Three and a half. Good for you, Alas, bro.

Three and a half, that hook, that hook is big. If it was two and a half Ravens, I probably, would have been there, right? This is a field goal game. The Ravens, I think, likely win it, but I think it's close. It goes down to the final kick, and I think that the Steelers will at least cover the number for us. They have a chance to win. I mean, they beat, you know, the Ravens already this year. They have a chance to win the game, so I'll take the points as well, but I think it's

close. It'll be a nail winner. You're a new man. Two years ago, you have never made that pick. That's, hey, man, I am a new man, and that's why the playoffs, I'm also going to be a new man and be a champion come playoff time because i'm making correct picks i'm making logical picks and i'm using not only tremendous information by a little gut instinct as well i'm a whole new man we'll see time will tell just remember don't mean a thing without the ring yeah it's coming it's coming buddy all right luke happy new year to you and uh we'll see you in the group here's boys happy new years all right luke wilson i'm dylan play fair and i'm tallor smith we're putting

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