P1 with Matt and Tommy - Adrian Newey to leave Red Bull - what's next?!

Episode Date: April 30, 2024

The craziest silly season ever continues, as one of F1's most celebrated figures looks set to leave Red Bull at the end of the season. But where could he end up? And where does that leave Christian Horner, Max Verstappen and Red Bull?You can sign up to our Patreon here! You'll get access to exclusive episodes you won't hear anywhere else, every P1 episode ad-free, full driver interview videos, early access to tickets and more!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Or should I rephrase it, the Ferrari P1 podcast because Adrian knew he's going to go there soon because he can't retire. He won't retire. He cannot. He's not allowed as a despairing Ferrari fan. Come on, Adrian. Come on over. But this is what is being reported, Tommy, that Adrian is done.

He's packing his bags. He's leaving Red Bull, and we now need to talk about what's going to happen next. Indeed. Another twist in the craziest silly season ever is not even just the drivers now. We're having, like, massive key personnel moving. And Adrian Newe is obviously such an important part of Formula One because he's won, well, many, many, many, many, many championships with lots of different teams. So, yeah, it's a huge story. He has. career. Let's talk about it quickly. In 1980, he worked for Fittipaldi as an automotive designer. Then

1987 to 1989, he was the chief designer at March. Then 1990, Leighton House Racing as technical director. Then 91 to 96 at Williams as chief designer. Then 97 to 2005 with McLaren as technical director. And then he's been with Red Bull since 2006. And he has been designer of no less than 12 World Constructors Championship winning cars. So he's got the CV to really cash in at this stage, if I'm being completely honest with you. Like, I know my man is like, what, 65 years old, but I reckon, look, let's make it a round number. Let's go to 70. Let's get Ferrari a few world championships. Five more Ferrari titles.

Well, not really, because he'll have to respect some gardening leave, which is obviously something that needs to be covered as well. But before we carry on, I would just like to say, if you. wouldn't mind subscribing to the P1 YouTube channel. We're trying to hit 500K. We've got so many glorious talking points waiting to bubble over and get ready. And we'd love for you to join the P1 fam over on YouTube. Isn't that right, Tom Bellingham? Yep, get us to half a millie. Do it. There you go. The words of a wordsmith, Tom Belling. First thoughts. Of course, the craziest, as you say, Tommy, silliest, silliest of silly seasons, not even just. with drivers, but with just general team personnel and everything else going on.

And, I mean, thank goodness we've had something to talk about with the likes of Hamilton going to Ferrari and Adrian Newey deciding to leave Red Bull. It's certainly, hopefully creating the ingredients for some great racing in the near future. And not just, even as you being a Max Verstappen fan, Max Verstappen dominating, because nobody wants to see that, Tommy, do they? is we've said it before that the only thing that could have gone wrong for Red Bull at the moment is Red Bull themselves. And this seems to be happening. We'll get into it. But yeah, my first thoughts are the fact that until this whole Horner situation happened where I started to believe more that this would be a possibility of Nui leave.

I thought until that happened that Adrian Newe would see out, you know, the rest of his Formula One career at Red Bull. I saw a clip on a podcast that got posted maybe like half a year ago before this storm happened where Adrian was talking about like Red Bull or his family and if he left now, it would be like leaving his family. So he was dead set on staying for the rest of his career. But that has all changed now. It certainly has, and I think it was something that you just wondered with that whole Horner situation, as you say, that it just felt like nothing actually gave. Nothing was, nothing came of it really. There wasn't a conclusion, but now with Newey set to leave Red Bull, this is obviously something that has now given. So first question comes in from Sydney XF1.

How likely is Newey to Ferrari, or is Aston Martin looking like a better choice? Right, so I'm going to give you two answers, one of which is full delusion. He's going to Ferrari 100%. Okay, listen up. Adrian, I've already pleaded to you on my personal TikTok as to reasons that you should go to Ferrari, but I'll also do it on the podcast as well. Great food, my God, Italian food. Can you get any better than that?

Absolutely not. You won't get a better looking car on the grid either. Ferrari is just beautiful. You've got two fantastic drivers. And I didn't appreciate the comments that people put on that TikTok saying that, oh, oh, you, And it was weird because you had two different sets of fans, one saying, oh, you threw in Lewis Hamilton in there like he's a good driver. I'm like, how is anyone still actually believing that Hamilton is washed? Then on the flip side of that, oh, you threw in Charlotte-Cleur like we wouldn't notice. I'm like, what are you talking about? This is the strongest driver pairing on the grid. And, I mean, this is delusional, but there are also our reasons there that I think Adrian should go to Ferrari. How likely is it, is the question from Sydney? I don't know. He's like sold his house. hasn't he? So that seems like

he might want to pop to Italy for a few years. You know, I'm sure you can get lovely little houses there. And Ferrari, I'm sure that I have heard that Ferrari don't like remote working, but for Newey, get him on Zoom. You know what I mean? He can show his little drawings over Zoom if necessary. It doesn't matter where Newee wants to be. Surely Ferrari will bend over backwards to get him

and Lewis Hamilton in the same team. that, oh, goodness gracious me. How likely is it? I don't know. I don't know, Tommy, but I want to say 100%, but I don't think it's as high as that. No. But I do think it's going to happen.

Like my gut feeling is going to happen. Stop it. And I'm not just saying that. I've thought this for a while that I think we did a patron pod maybe what, like two months ago where we discussed the initial rumours and kind of said that, you know, we could see it happening. I think the key thing here is that you look at those two options. There are more, of course.

But Adrian Nui was quoted not too long ago about his sort of, not regrets in Formula One, but just if he could do his career again, what might change. And those things that he said were that he'd love to work with Ferrari, he'd love to work with Lewis Hamilton, and he'd love to work with Fernando Alonzo. Now, going to Western Martin, he works with Fernando Alonzo, going to Ferrari. he works with Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari, so he ticks two massive bucketless things off. And I think Adrian Nui being a motorsport nerd through and through,

I don't think for a second that Lawrence Stroll is not throwing a, I say a massive number, probably just a blank check, say just write whatever you want on it and come to Aston Martin. but as someone later on in their career, I think that Adrian Newee will sort of pick the romantic option of, you know, wanting to deliver because what a way to sort of end your CV if he wins a world, if he wins one or multiple world titles, we don't know, at Ferrari, that would just be like the pinnacle.

And it's the same for Lewis Hamilton as a driver. but we said at the time, it's looking like a better decision now than what it was when he first signed, because we all said it's a sideways step. Now it's looking like Ferrari a lot better than a Mercedes seemed to be going a bit backwards. But you get to the end of your, you know, career

and people, anyone in life wants to like, you know, tick things off their bucket list and stuff. And that is why I think Adrian Newey will want to be at Ferrari. Yes, absolutely. I think that you make a good point and we have already highlighted. He's 65 years old. Money, I don't think at this stage of Adrian Newe's career is an object. It's more about ticking off things that you've always wanted to do. When we get to 65 years old, I'm sure it'll be the same thing where you just want to, when you finally are on your deathbed, you go, God, I'm so glad I did X, Y and Z. And that's, I think, what Adrian will probably be thinking. A lot. A lot of people are saying, oh, is he going to retire? I, if he... He could. He could.

What a flex when everyone wants him just to be like, you know what? Nah. Yeah. But I don't think he loves it too much, surely. I think as well, it's not like he has to drive. We'll be talking about Fernando Alonzo and he's 65 about, come on, all right, when is he actually going to stop driving Formula One cars? But Newe doesn't have to drive them. He just has to design them.

And clearly he's still got it because Red Bull are absolutely outrageous at the moment. And sorry. and also with Red Bull, like you say, like, let's be honest, it's far too coincidental the Horner situation that he's leaving Red Bull. If this Horner situation hadn't have happened, would he, now of all times, gone, no, you know what, I'm going to retire, no. So it's not a retirement. Like, it's, he's left to make a point or whatever he thinks.

And that's why I don't think he would retire personally. Yeah, I would order it probably Ferrari, retirement, anything else. I think that's probably the order. But Ferrari is like 99%, then it's 1% and then 0%. Of course, Astor Martin is another thing being spoken about. It's a British-based team, gets to work with Fernando Alonzo, but then you also have to work with Lance Stroll. So there's parts there that obviously are drawbacks here.

You know, why work with one, great driver, when you can work with two. But I genuinely believe that it just makes so much sense for him to go to Ferrari. So fingers crossed for my mental health that this will happen. And this is when, knowing Ferrari fans is luck, Adrian Newey's wash doesn't have a clear what to do with the 2026 regulations. Like that's my concern. But I feel as though he might well do okay,

considering how many constructors' championship winning cars he has helped create. Which now brings us beautifully onto our next question from Winap. Why is Horner acting like Newey is not a fundamental part of the project? I believe, and this is just my opinion, that it is a case of Horner just digging his heels in and just trying to make sure he stays in the position that he is in. What cost that brings, he doesn't care as long as he stays in the position that he is in. So I'm sure he is very aware of what Newey brings to the project, as with Max Verstappen and any other senior members of Red Bull.

but this is, as I say, a case of Christian saying, well, no, what would I do if I leave Red Bull? That's the pinnacle for him, anything else. Where would he go? So that's my understanding of it, is that he knows deep down how crucial these members are, but his thirst for being in the position that he is in outweighs all of that. Yeah, Formula One, there's a lot of big egos in Formula One,

and you know, you only need to watch drivers. and being one of them. You only need to strive to survive to see that. And particularly with someone like Horner, obviously, Red Bull have won before, you know, 2010 to 2013, and now they're dominating Formula One again. And in Christian Horner's head, he will firmly believe. And, you know, there's no doubt that he has led them to that success.

to win all those titles. Now, whether he'd have done that without these key people, I personally don't believe so. And I think while Horner deserves credit, it's not the Beal and End all that he is the, it's only Christian Horner being in charge of Red Bull that meant that they won these six titles, you know, and more. So I think, but also what you say, it is clear that he's got the backing of the Red Bull ownership, if you like, the Thai side of it, that tie ownership.

And that means that he is able to sort of stay in his position and he has made it quite clear. And he's said many, many times that, you know, he's not, doesn't need to leave. And from everything we've heard, because we've seen a lot of, what's the term like, game of bluff between Maxa Stappen side and how it's Markoside and all this kind of stuff of like who's going and what, this is the first sort of maybe domino that's falling now. Yes, which again, God, what a segue. Next question. Alfred Greenwu nine. Will Red Bull fall into some crisis, possibly losing Vastappen and more people with key roles in the team? So of course this does now open up the discussion once again about Max Vastappen and what he ends up deciding to do.

And the more and more I think about it, and this again is not coming just from pure delusion, the more I feel as though there is a genuine chance that Max will leave Red Bull. Now, I, he would be silly to decide to leave and go to Mercedes or wherever in 2025. I don't think that's going to happen. I personally believe in 26, Mercedes is a genuine possibility. You've got to think right now, if you're losing Adrian Newey, if you're already rumoured to not have an advantage over the other big engine manufacturers in 26, when it becomes more of an engine formula and this, that and the other,

you start to think about future-proofing yourself here. Are you going to put your money behind a Red Ball team that's lost Adrian Nui, or are you going to put your money behind perhaps a Mercedes getting back to the glory days of what they've had? Not that long ago, let's not forget. I know they're washed now, but there's regulation changes coming. And could Max Verstappen decide that I've lost faith in Red Bull? I feel as though he could. With what's going on right now,

And if you can see this Christian Horner potential situation where he is digging his heels in, that could implode the whole team and make them fall much further back from where they are right now. So that's where I am sitting is that 25 is locked, done, signed sealed delivered, Red Bull are going to win the world championship. That's what I believe. We're not got any regulation changes coming next year. But after that, I think it's fair game. Mercedes put in a, I mean, I find it's so bizarre that Mercedes are willing to throw everything at max, including, you know, ambassadorship and all this sort of stuff.

It completely does not make sense in my head, considering everything that's gone on. But this is the situation we're in. Hamilton has decided the loyalty's not there with Mercedes and gone to Ferrari, and there is an open slot. I'm not, yeah, it's such a crazy situation, but it could happen. It is a crazy situation, said it on every. single predictions that we've done and every time we mentioned silly season that you couldn't have planned it any better that we're about to get a big regulation chains but every single driver's contract is almost up one year early and that makes it so odd that Formula One, if

the 2026 regulations came in in 2025 I think Max would go. I think the I genuinely believe leave him. And a lot of people go, oh, he'd never, you know, he's just bluffing. He'd never leave Red Bull. I could tell from interviews that when he was talking about Helmut Marco, if he's gone, I'm going as well. I think Max is generally a really loyal person and can see that Helmut Marco has done a lot for his career.

It's quite clear that the Vestappen camp aren't particularly happy with Horner, even though they're kind of pretending in four team celebration. photos like yeah everything's great but that relationship's broken down in my opinion and i do genuinely believe max when he is saying you know well if helmet marco goes and i think he will try and negotiate something where he might decide to go take helmet with him maybe i think there are genuine discussions with with mercedes i do think it is genuine that uh toto well toto's been very outspoken uh like you say about about wanting him and it's not a guarantee that Red Bull are going to be really good in 2026.

I've said this before. It is a complete regulation change. Look what happened when we changed after 2013. Everyone thought Vett was going to dominate forever, and you'd never said in 2014 that Vettl wouldn't have even won a race, and you'd have laughed your head off at thinking that that was going to be the case. And it's now going a completely different way, and everyone at Red Bull will know.

We don't know from the outside, and there's been no talk of it yet. But they might know how things are going with Ford. I'm sure Ford aren't particularly happy with the situation at Red Bull either, and that's probably not helping their plans of developing a new engine and how things are going.

And, you know, they might have, Max and everyone who are on the inside might have seen stuff and go, well, we might not be very good in 20, 26 because they seem to, the teams do know, you know, like Alpine knew they were going to fall off a cliff this year, like even though you, until you get on the track and see everyone else, the teams do know how their performance is going to be. So maybe there are warning signs in 26. They might not be the team they are now, which may seem a million miles away now,

but it is a complete, complete change. And we talk about Max going to potentially, eventually Mercedes, what about if Mercedes targeted Helmut? Max might be that moving piece, but everyone's talking about, oh, will Max go to Mercedes? What if Helmut decides, you know, I'm sick of Red Bull right now and I want to change and he goes to Mercedes and then that causes the problem for Max of, well, what do I do now? And you speak about the loyalty. Whether that loyalty goes two ways and Helmet will only go if Max goes, I'm sure there are lots of discussions there as well. But it just keeps opening up. And I think with this whole Adrian Newey news, it has opened this can of worms up once again.

Everyone, ah, Max ain't going to go, blah, blah, blah. Now this happens. All of a sudden, your future is a lot different than perhaps the dream that was sold to Max when he signed that long-term deal with Red Bull. So, oh, God, we've got, I mean, the racing is absolutely terrible, but we've got some great off-track drama. Well, hopefully this is the puzzle piece that moves that needs to get the racing good. on track again and it be a bit more.

I feel as though this is the foreplay before, you know, this is 26, my God, I reckon we've got a 10-way fight for the World Championship. Maybe Adrian Nui as a Formula One fan has just gone. You know what, I am too good. I think we need better racing. I'll retire for it, just the good at the sport. No, he's going to Ferrari. Don't be stupid.

Don't listen to that, Adrian. I know you're a big listener with the P1 podcast. Go to Ferrari. Thank you. Right, next question from Prof underscore Chuckles. regardless of where Newe goes, do you think he will follow Vastappen to whatever team he ends up on?

Now, this one's a loyalty that we've not discussed, and perhaps one that's not even really been spoken about in the media. It has been more about, as we've been saying, the Helmut and the Max loyalty. I don't, I mean, we've been saying that Vastappan might go to Mercedes and Adrian to Ferrari. I don't see that one as much, but then I'm not particularly up to speed with how their relationship

is, to be honest with you. I don't know if you have more to say on that, Tommy. Yeah, I personally, obviously Nui has said some amazing things about Max, and sometimes certain camps can use the Adrian Nui's success to diminish Maxx's happiness happens results and equally the other way around. I think Adrian Nui has sort of, you know, said that,

you know, what Max is able to do in that car is unbelievable and take it to, you know, the next, the next level, because, of course, we go on about like, oh, it's all Adrian Nui doing it, but Sergio Perez last year, for example, you know, didn't have the best of mid-seasons and things like that. So what Max has done is obviously unbelievable, but I don't think that, I just don't see Adrian Nui, I think the, like we said at the start, the romance of working with someone new, while he has a lot of respect for Max Verstappen

and what he can achieve, I don't think that Max, even if it was a case of like Helmut Marco and Vestappen go to Mercedes and they say to Adrian Nui, look, come to Mercedes and we can get the old band back together and all this kind of stuff. I just think that, you know, the thrive for something new is what agent's going to look for now and it has been the perfect

sort of it's the perfect excuse we thought he was going to stay forever he even himself thought he's going to stay at rebel forever and retire there and I feel like there's surely something in his head that's gone well is this you know fate telling me that it's time for Ferrari like I just feel like that is it's the yes categorically yes thank you very much next question Andy Fleet 22 comes in with If Newee is forced to see out his contract Plus gardening leave Will teams wait that long for him

As the 2026 cars could be built and racing by then So of course Newy is contracted until the end of 25 Then he'd have to do his gardening leave So 27 is when he'd be able to start And then if you think How much time he would need to actually fully get up to speed He might well be turning nearly 70 then So

how I would see this is that Red Bull of course would not be willing to let go of Nui easily but I feel as though Ferrari John Elkin Fred you know what I'm saying they're all going to be there saying look how much come on how much to let him go and we've already seen Ferrari are very willing to put the money where their mouth is and for people that say they can't afford it I'm like we need to we need to differentiate here need to differentiate here between the cost cap, which is about developing the car and the teams run. It does not include the top three paying individuals, which include, no surprise, the drivers. And I would imagine that third person is three, isn't it?

I'm not mistaken here. I'm pretty sure it's the three key personnel doesn't don't. Yeah, it wouldn't come under the cost cap, which is why Astor Martin has become such a talking point, because they could essentially throw whatever at Newey. exactly so with that they can afford the Adrian Newey bills and we've also said as well that I'm sure Adrian would do it for 50p in a meal deal because he's all about the romance and he's not about the money Adrian Ferrari is the way but that is of course that that is how I see it going is that Newe would be able to end his contract well it sounds like he's going to leave Red Bull

very very soon imminently so I think that that will be sorted one way or another then he'll do his gardening leave in 25 and then 26 here we go yeah because there was there was talk of newie maybe leaving for a rival team before and and part of newie wanting to stay was getting him on other other projects that he wanted to achieve in his life he did he's done that that RB17 hypercar with with red bull so I'm sure you know uh he's doing side quests yeah he's doing he is going to do side quests and for uh Ferrari can offer him you know I wouldn't even be surprised if they're like, you know what, you can have a roadcar called the Ferrari Nui and you can make it.

But this is what they've got in the locker as a company like Ferrari. They have the power. They have the romance and whatever. And Adrian Nui as a designer, that would be really exciting for him that he could do as well. So that is why Ferrari, I think, in pole position for it. Hello. Yeah, not for the first time.

And that's actually not the first time as well that a company has been willing to do that. I mean, McLaren, they did it for us. Good one. Sorry. No, it's a good one. But actually, about this gardening leave and how Will Teams actually want Adrian Nui, yes, he's Adrian Nui. look at all the championships that we rolled off at the start of the show.

And of course the 2026 regulation change will come in and it will be Ferrari or whoever, whatever team he's going to go to will have their car set for 2026 before Adrian knew he can even put a finger on it. But and while there's this perception that now in this cost cap era, teams can't develop, look at Red Bull this year. they flipped their entire philosophy round of their car because they were worried that everyone would copy the Red Bull and they've gone for a completely different car

and now they're even more dominant than they're ever before. Look at what McLaren did when they got their upgrades in the middle of last season. They launch from the back right to right to the front. There is, you can still make massive gains. Aston Martin did the same. There are still massive gains to be had. So even if, for whatever reason,

Ferrari aren't winning in 2026, sorry Matt. I don't think that will be the case. I do actually think Ferrari are going to be really, very good. But he could take them to another level. They're not just going to be like, well, actually, Adrian, no, we don't need you. I know you've won a lot of championships, but we've got a car sorted. You're always going to want Adrian Newey on your team. I do wonder as well, with gardening leave, how does one measure gardening?

is gardening. Because look, yeah, for those that don't know what garden leave is, he's basically not allowed to work on anything with regards to a rival team or anything like that. But I do wonder, right, in 2025, Adrian's having a coffee with it. You just go for a coffee with Fred. They're just friends, you know what I mean? And then Fred just whips out a little blueprint and goes,

uh, nothing, this is nothing. This is just a piece of paper. What do you think of my drawing? This is art. And then he'll go, God, no, what are you doing? no, don't do that. And then Fred will put it in the bin. I'm sure there are ways around it,

but I'm not suggesting they would, but I just find that quite fascinating that there will not be any conversation if he does decide to go to another team that he couldn't just go, what are you doing? And then just carry on with his coffee. Teams are always looking for loophole's in Formula One.

So Ferrari hire Adrian Newe as their gardener. And then he's there, he's there just like trimming the hedge looking over the window. like, looks good guys? Or like, no, no, don't do that. That's the master plan. If you see Adrian Newey at Marinello planting some flowers, we all know that the idea came from P1 podcast. Exactly. He'll be planting the seeds, but actually for the car.

Anyway, right. So that is it. I think we're done. What a chat, exciting bit of, well, imminent news. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? My final thoughts are exactly what you kind of mentioned. earlier that we need some juicy on-track action now please. Loving all this chaos of the silly season, but give us a good one. Luckily, it's Miami next and it's a sprint, so I'm sure it would be great. That'll be good. Not one bad races, but two, but we'll be live on Twitch.

If that B1. Tommy, yeah, we'll have all the content, as always. At least it's not a ridiculously early one. It's actually a late one this time, so that'll be interesting. So I'll be a silly. Yeah, you will. But no, you won't. You'll be energetic and great content coming out of your mouth. Thank you, everybody.

We'll see you very soon. Adrian Nui to Ferrari. Take care, lots of love. Bye. Hi. P1 is a Stack production and part of the ACAST Created Network.