P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2023 Qatar GP predictions

Episode Date: October 4, 2023

Plenty will happen in Qatar this weekend - the Championship could be decided, we've got a sprint race on the Saturday, and we think a certain hype train is about to come off the rails. Join us! We're now on Patreon! Sign up HERE for ad-free episodes, bonus content, exclusive early access and loads more!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. It is Race Week. We had a whole week off. And I didn't know what to talk about because we didn't have any Formula One action, Tom Bellingham. But now we're back into Race Week. It's Max Verstappen Championship Week. How do you feel?

Yeah, it's going to be, it's looking very, very likely that he's going to win it. also very likely that he's going to win it on a sprint weekend. He can never just win a title normally, can he? I would match the staff, and that'll be three in quite of unusual circumstances if he ends up winning on a Saturday as well. So yeah, it doesn't surprise me because it always seems to happen. Although that being said, I'm not one of these people that's like,

oh, it's so odd and I don't like it if he wins it on a sprint. It doesn't. doesn't. You wouldn't care if he won it on a practice day, would you really? You'd take it. I mean, I would. If Sean LeClau's becoming a world champion on a Tuesday, I'll take it. You know what I mean? True, but it's the traditionalist, aren't they? They're a bit like, oh, they shouldn't be able to win on a Saturday, but it's not really something that bothers me that much. I think particularly in a title that has kind of been a foregone conclusion since about the fourth race. So I'm sure even, you know, Felipe Massa fans will take him becoming world champion 17 years after the last race happening, you know.

So, you know, these things can happen in unorthodox ways. But yes, before we dive into our predictions, we've got to let our beautiful Patreon members know and anyone that wants to join the Patreon. We have a throwback to the 2021 Qatar Grand Prix. We can't really do many more throwbacks with Qatar because there aren't any. But we've been looking at that crazy race that went on, of course. It was towards the end of that massively chaotic.

2021 season. We've also got lots more exclusive podcasts. We've got private Discord. We've got early access to live events. You name it. We got it. So yeah, go check out our Patreon. There's links in our social media link trees and everything else. So go and check that out. Right, let's get into our predictions now then, starting with biggest good surprise. I am going to lock in Logan Sargent. here he is. Logan, he's been blasted after Japan and he is going to come back firing. I feel as though, right, I haven't actually...

We have to start every podcast with Logan recently. We did the driver ratings and it's like, we start with Logan Sargent and we did the Williams, who's going to get the seat, we start with Logan Sargent. Yes, and now we're starting with Logan Sargent. Big is good surprise because now I haven't driven Qatar, LaSail International Circuit in real life, I have on the game, I feel like it's quite an easy circuit for Logan to get up to speed at.

And I think the Williams will be pretty good as well. So that's why I think Logan, look, solid little P-15 and finishes the race, that is surprising for Logan currently. So not smashing his car either. Come on, Logan. Gone for that loophole. Oh, yeah. Massif. My biggest good surprise, I have gone for Pierre Gasley. speaking of fired up after after Japan

the guy is going to be more gutted of losing that ninth place to Ockon than if he'd have ended up losing his Monsor win to science back in 2021 so look the guy sorry 2020 not 2020, not 2021

before anyone corrects me yeah Gazley Yeah, Ghazley, I just, yeah, I think he's going to be fired up after what happened, and he's going to drive like a man-possessed and also was very good there in the only other race we've done around there, actually, and started on the front row, which is pretty wild. Yeah, so I was, you know, deliberating a little bit of Ghazley for the same reasons, but then I remembered he's in an Alpine that has absolutely no straight line speed.

So I wondered whether that should be any good this weekend because it is a lot of sort of medium high-speed corners. You could probably argue that it's a power track. And interesting, we'll see. I don't think they're even making Q3, but, you know, that's the juicy spice right there. Juicy spice, that's weird. Biggest flop now!

I have gone for Liam Lawson. The hype train has to derail eventually. And did I put him as biggest flop for Japan? I can't remember. I think I did because he had his experience at Zizuka and whatnot. But I feel as though, look, Logan, he's going to do it, you know. He's going to have a massive performance. People are some people are going, oh, is Liam going to get the William's seat?

Obviously, Felipe Drogovich, loads of other drivers in the, in the sort of arena to take that seat. But Liam, I think no reason other than vibes. You know what my vibes can sometimes do. I mean, I overthrew Max Verstappen recently. So Liam, if you're listening, which you're not, I'm sorry, but watch out. It does feel like, I thought that would happen, though, in Suzuki. And I was like, oh, we just need a normal race. And then he was, yeah, ahead of, head of Yuki.

But he is the man of the moment at the moment where he's just been driving really well. Maybe Qatar will be his downfall, especially if Matt predicts biggest flop. and my biggest flop pains me to say it but I've gone for Fernando Alonso and I just think that his back will finally give up carrying Aston Martin that trekked at great results or just solid points and he might not even get a point this time I'm kind of thinking just because yeah I feel like he's he's he He's getting the most out of that car every week, and he's going to slip up eventually.

And maybe Qatar is... Matt, you already slipped up at Singapore. Have you deleted that from your brain? No, although he had damage for that. So I'm counting that, on reflection, that he would have absolutely won that race by 40 seconds. One that race again. Can't remember the last time.

He won that race. Interesting, Fernando. Yeah, I guess, you know, you kind of do the maths. You see the top four teams. Asdem Martin aren't in that anymore. And then you've gassed up Pierre Gazile. to have a little bit of a miracle drive. Although, Fernando Alonso had a very lovely drive in Catar,

if you don't remember. He did a lovely move on, Gassley, in that first lap, did he not? Sure did. He was looking very good indeed, was old Fernando, ended up finishing P3, 60 seconds off the Lewis Hamilton victory. God, that's been a while since we've said that, isn't it? Crazy. Yeah.

Sprint shootout. Now, of course, it is a sprint, which means we now have to think about who's going to win the sprint. shootout, which is qualifying on the Friday Saturday. God, honestly. Should we not go for pole position first? Yeah, we could do. It's really difficult because the

pole position determines the Sunday, so I didn't know whether we want pole position for the main race. We usually do sprint shootout? I can't remember. I cannot remember. It's been a while since we had a sprint. I can't remember what older we did in. Sprint shootout. So the winner of qualifying on the Saturday, for me, is going to be Max for Stapp. it's going to be another

torrid time for anyone that isn't a Red Bull fan I just feel it feel it in my bones I think it's going to be very similar to Suzuki McLaren will be there but they won't be there enough

to overthrow Max Indeed I've also gone for Max Verstappen you'd be crazy to bet anyone else on a track like this high speed very similar similar

yeah really to Suzuki I guess and Max we saw what he did in Suzuki. It was absolutely unstoppable. And you wouldn't bet against the same this weekend. Sprint winner now? Max for Stappen.

So I was thinking, you know, do we go for a little bit of spice here? Do we go, oh, Max won't win the title on the Saturday after everyone talking about it. And then you look into it and you go, he has to finish in the top six. So instead I'm just going all in on Max for Stapton. Stappen this weekend. It worked last time.

And yeah, look, we had our one week of glory at Singapore. It was a good taste of what life used to be like without Red Bull winning. But Max is now going to solidly remind us for the rest of the year, I believe, that it's only one person that's going to be at the top step of that podium. And it's Max for Stappen. For Sprint Winner, I've gone for Lando Norris. And I've literally just decided. that on the fly just to make it a bit more interesting.

I still think... You've gone for a max clean sweep as well. Yeah, yeah. But yeah, if part of me thinks that, yeah, I do think McLaren are going to be very good around here. And maybe, for whatever reason, Max is not on the sprint. That being said, I don't fully believe it, but for the purpose of something a bit spicier. Let's go for Lando and see what those vibes do.

You screwed yourself there, mate. If you don't believe in what you're saying, then it won't come true. You've got to say it with your chest, the Max for Snap and Resident podcast. Podcast resident fan on this podcast. True. What I will say, though, is... Not true, Max fan. I don't worry.

I still think, yeah, Max is winning it in the sprint. It would have to be something... Well, it'd have to DNF, wouldn't you? Let's be honest. Yeah. From the spin, pretty much. Absolutely. Good stuff. Pole position now. So this is happening on the Friday.

And I've gone for Max for Stappen. Yeah. Yeah. No, I think yeah. No, it's just going to be a carbon copy, I feel as though. As much as Ferrari sometimes turn up on a sprint weekend, I think Max is just going to have one of those wonderful weekends for himself where he'll crown himself champion. I don't think of it crown himself. Formula One will crown him champion and he will just. just win everything so that he gets the biggest plot it's possible for this weekend. Yeah, Paul, I've also gone for Max de Stauffin.

It's so hard to bet against him, particularly on a sprint weekend as well, when we know what he's like when he comes out of the blocks straight away. And this track is just Max de Stappen territory, isn't it? So I think it is very much, yeah, these predictions for this track in particular is more about who we've gone for second and third, because Max is going to be a very tough guy to be here. Right, let's move to our top three then. In third place, I have gone for Sergio Perez. He's going to have a podium. He had one in Italy, which was about a month ago, and I feel like he's going to have another one this weekend. I just, he's got to utilise that car at some point. And I was just looking up his

results, Tommy. And it came up with his grid positions as well. And it is frightening to look at his grid positions this year. Can I just read them out to you? Go on. In a Red Bull. Right. So at the beginning, it was beautiful. Bahrain second, Saudi Arabia first.

Australia 20th. We weren't all about that. Azerbaijan, third. Miami first. Then listen to the rest of them. 20th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 15th, 5th, 13th. 9th, 2nd, 7th, 5th, 13th. Yeah.

I did see a stat, actually. I think someone shared it that Perez's average grid position this year is worse than what Albans was, bearing in mind as well that Albon was not, Max wasn't obviously in the championship winning car and they were very much kind of... I thought you meant Albon was a long way behind. Sorry, when Albon was in the Red Bull.

Yeah, I mean, to be fair, I, it's probably not far off. Because I know, yeah, it might actually not be that far off. So, yeah, Perra's qualifying is the thing that's let him down, but you do think you'd have a good race here. Yep. What about your third, mate? So P3, I have gone for

Charles LeClerre, the resident Ferrari sprint weekend podium. And yeah, I think he's going to have a good weekend again. So there we go. I'll take it. I'll take it, my friend. Thank you very much for putting Ferrari in your predictions. In second, I have gone for Lando Norris. It's, yeah, it's going to be similar to Japan, in my opinion.

McLaren are going to be very good around here. I think Lando will be closer to Max than Perez will be. You know, Lando probably could have only finished 10 to 12 seconds behind Max around Japan, had it not been for a few shenanigans with Perez himself in the VSC and whatnot. But, yeah, I think Lando's going to have a very strong weekend. It might even be quite a quiet weekend for him in terms of finishing second and being clear of the rest behind him, but not close enough to Max. I have gone for Lando Norris P2 as well because I just can't see it being anyone else.

He's on an amazing runner form driving, you know, superbly well. And if that comes in, which I would be surprised if it doesn't, because we've both gone for it and it just just feel like that's the result I can see him getting. That would be, yeah, three P2s in a row, which is very very, very. very, very impressive indeed. And yeah, he's driving so, so well. Now the McLaren's improved, and he's kind of rocketing up the championship table now.

Has to be said. Certainly is. In first, I've gone for Oscar Pitt, no. Max Verstappen, I'm sorry. I know I haven't given Piastria podium this week, but sometimes that's good because sometimes my predictions are washed, although last time out in Japan,

my predictions were solid. So, but yeah, Max for Stappen, P1, thank you very much for coming. Goodbye. P1, I have also gone for Max Verstappen. I think it's going to be a crushing weekend for him where he wins a championship in style. And then, yeah, we'll see if he has that post-title slump,

but I very much doubt it because it's not in his nature. No, absolutely not. He will continue to dominate until the end of time, or at least until his car won't allow him to. I won crazy prediction now. And my one is Ferrari won't get a podium on a sprint weekend, because that's what they're known for. So whether that's on the sprint day or the race day, Ferrari will not get a top three.

I don't know why I'm doing this, but I feel like the old anti-jinks. I don't mind if Charlotte Claire gets a little podium, and I don't get a point here. I feel like my crazy prediction will be correct. We've both gone for a pessimistic one where we'll be happy if we're wrong because my one crazy prediction is that Fernando Alonso fails to make Q3 for the first time this year. Okay. I think he's hanging on to that stat by his fingernails now with that absolute tractor. And obviously Lance isn't even getting into Q2 at the moment.

And I feel like it's only a matter of time and maybe this is the circuit for it. Wow. Fernando will make you pay for that disbelief. I hope so. That's true. Yeah, that's bad. Yeah. I mean, you'll take a top ten, wouldn't you really?

Yeah. It was very good in 2021, as I say, very good quality back then. So let's see what happens this year. And now let's go to our three crazy predictions from you wonderful lot. First one is from mega tired human. That's you, Tommy. Sergeant in the points. Come on.

The Logie Bear hype train. Yeah, the Logie Bear Hype Train is here. Biggest good surprise from me. And Sergeant in the points, well, that would be. That could secure his seat if he gets a few points in one of the races. Although that would be a slight miracle, considering his current run of form. Wouldn't you agree, Tommy? Yeah, yeah.

He needs those points, doesn't he? Big, big time. Big time. He's got to get a point at the very very important. at the very least. Just one. Just one singular, singular point. Heels Lady now says Perez, not in Q3.

Is that a crazy prediction? After me just reading out of his grid results. How many times does he not been in Q3? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. So, that's interesting. That's not great, is it really? And Tamsin Riddle underscore, Piastri gets his first win. I love it, right?

Piaastri gets his first podium. And what does everyone start predicting? Piaastri getting his first win. I love the Oscar hype train, but it would have to be a mental race, I think, for Oscar to win. After what we saw in Suzuki, especially, if we have high tireware around Qatar as well, he's got to figure out how to drive that car in a better way

to match Lando Norris and his race pace. But look, I'm all for it. I want to be wrong. I want Oscar to turn up and win. That would be unreal. But then also, can you imagine being Lando Norris if Oscar does get that first win before him? Yeah, there is something in the back of my mind that's like,

oh, God, can you imagine if that won one day and then it's happened to Lando, you know, obviously twice because with Danny Rick as well, that he's beating him all that time. And then, yeah, I do. Do you think Lando would sit back again like he did in Monza where he was like, right, going to play the team game? Do you think if he's...

He would be on the radio, a more extreme version of Suzuki where he was kind of like, what we're doing, I'm quicker. If it was the last few lapses or. of the race similar to Monza. And he's got right behind Oscar Piastri. He's got a little bit more pace like he did with Danny Rick. Do you think he'll play the team game to secure another one, two for McLaren? No.

And part of me thinks a little bit like your theory of of the Monza in Monza with the two Ferraris about, oh, if this driver was ahead. I think if Lando's behind with a few laps to go, they let them race. but if it was the other way around, they'd probably call it off. Do you think McLaren would let him race?

I don't think they would. I don't know. I don't know. Lando, yeah. I think they'd be too scared of denying him a first win after essentially they called off the fight in Monsor and him having to do it again would be tough.

Do you see it being a clean fight if they did race for the last few laps? Or do you think it would get elbows out? I really want this to happen. Yeah. We're in some sort of imaginary land. Yeah, yeah. We're back to our podcast.

that we did about if Maxa Stephan didn't exist. Yeah, literally. But no, I do think, yeah, Piastri, it's wild the hype around him, but I think at the moment, yeah, I do not, I wouldn't worry about him, but the, I think this track in particular with the tireware, I think it might be a bit of a struggle. I don't think he's going to be like absolutely awful, hence why we haven't predicted in biggest flop. But, yeah, well, I hope he proves me. wrong again. Time will tell. Time will tell. Love to see it. And that is it. Thank you everybody for watching and listening to this wonderful prediction podcast. If you want to find out more about our Patreon, link in the description of free over on YouTube or in our link trees and everywhere else

or just patreon.com.com for us slash Matt P1 Tommy if you want to have loads more exclusive, beautiful podcast from ourselves. And we will see you later this weekend for all the post practice, quali, quali, race, race, content from a sprint weekend that you've got used to from us. What's your final thoughts, Tommy? I nearly forgot. Oh, my final thoughts are,

you kind of mentioned the patron, and we've actually discussed the race quite a few times it's been mentioned, but yeah, we're about to record one about 2021, simpler, I say simpler times, more chaotic times of having the most stressful titles, battle of all time. Love that.

And now we're looking at Maxis Tappen, wrapping it up so early that he's going to do it on a Saturday. Yeah, I don't think we're going to be doing a throwback to 2023 anytime soon. So yeah, cool. Good stuff. Right, see you very soon, everybody. Bye!

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