P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2024 Azerbaijan GP predictions

Episode Date: September 11, 2024

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Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. It's predictions time. Once again, it is being Michael Massied to the absolute maximum this season. It's 39, 39 between myself and Tommy. It's Azerbaijan Grand Prix race week, Tommy. What kind of ingredients recipe are you bringing to your predictions this week? Well, the season's so. good that kind of normally when we predict anything, when we did it last year, it was very much

like you could tell when we'd gone crazy and you could tell when we'd gone just anything rogue, which is basically anything but matches tough and winning a poll position. But we don't, that's not a thing anymore. So I think every week is a bit, is a bit crazy and a bit out there now because the season's just so damn close. It really is. It's weird to think that now not to Putting Vastappan in our predictions for like top three doesn't feel crazy. It doesn't. No, it really doesn't. Putting Vastappan in our top three at this stage is seen as a, oh, maybe I'm seeing a loophole here.

Right. Biggest good surprise. Here we go then. We're starting off with positive vibes. Who is getting the biggest good surprise for me this week? It is Sergio Perez. Now you backed him last time out, Tommy, and it looked like it was coming in, no tomorrow. And then he lost 17 seconds in a blink of an eye.

And you didn't get a point. However, as Christian Horner has been saying, this is a track that he has won both the sprint and the main race. If this isn't where Perez can perform, then who knows where. So I'm backing him. I think that the king of the streets will return, and Sergio Perez will have a good weekend. That's all it needs is a good one.

Doesn't need to be amazing, just good. And then it's a good surprise. Is this finally where Christian Horner's like, look, see, I told you, Perez. My biggest good surprise, I have gone for Yuki Sonoda because Yuki Sanoda is good at Baku, and he has been good at Baku. I think he delivers that. The R.B. has been pretty wayful. It has to be said, they aren't anywhere near the car they were at the start of the season,

but history has shown that Yuki has delivered some good performances at Baku. has been unlucky there as well. But he is normally there or thereabouts, even in his rookie season. He was did a good job and was one of his better races than that difficult rookie season. So

the reason for the long delay was I was also contemplating someone else, but I have gone for you. Who was it? It was Franco Colapinto, actually. Oh! You fancied a little world from him in Baku? And then I remembered it was 39 all. I

do think for the record he's going to do well, but I also thought that was a bit more of a risky one. Tommy, you're not supposed to say I remembered it's 39 all. Is that in a good way or a bad way? Are you thinking that you might extend your lead with 309? Or you feel too risky? Yeah, too risky to go with a new drive. But I think he will prove people wrong. But we can't have two predictions so it won't count. So I look forward to Franco Colpinter winning the race because I bottled it. Let's get a biggest flop. I am locking in. Lance Stroll. I believe that this man, you know, he has a CV. That's pretty good round Baku.

He's at a podium. A podium. He's had a puncture. Yeah. He's had everything. And I just feel like a floppy weekend's coming for Lance Stroll. As we all know, it's never, never anything personal. It's just purely vibes.

And I feel, and my biggest flop hasn't come in in the last few races. I'm slacking right now. So I've really had to sit in a dark room and think who is going to get the biggest flop this week. And Lance, unfortunately. but maybe fortunately if none of my predictions are right anymore is getting biggest flop. Are you thinking, this isn't like locking in the reason. Like you obviously don't have to do a reason, but are you thinking a Lance stroll disaster class where he's like slow and bad or like a bad luck moment like he had where he had that

puncture that time? Oh, no, I think more savagely terrible. Yeah, and he's going to watch on and go, what have I got myself in for here? Absolutely, maybe, we'll see. What's your biggest flop, Tommy? My biggest flop is Max Verstappen. Who is a Max fan? I know, how dare I.

What a Max hater. Take the Cape down right now. Take the Cape down. He's obviously not had a good run of it recently. He still bagged points and the championship leader isn't eroding. I just feel like there is going to be. one race a year that really makes me nervous about his championship and there'll be there'll be something and I do feel like his relationship with Red Bull and his kind of body he will snap at some point

this season even if he goes on to win the World Championship there'll be a race where it boils over and he's going to get really frustrated so yeah I just feel like um that was one of the reasons the reason. And maybe this will come in after you predicted him. But of course, Sergio Perez is good around here. So, and he was closer in qualifying in Monza, so you never know. Even just a Perez even just an out qualification and Max still beats him by 30 seconds is a good, is a biggest flop for Max because he got outqualified by him. So is it? I'm not sure about that one. Really doubting that that would be a biggest flop point. But interesting. Okay, Max just happened. That would have to be a seriously floppy performance, considering he's not been,

it's not one in six, and he's been on, he's not been on the podium more times and he has been on the podium in those series of races. Yes, crazy. So it would have to be a bit of a stinker. Let's go to pole position. My poll position is, Charlotte Clair. And I'm, I'm back it. Now, I know this will not be good for my crazy prediction, that he will have more wins than

polls this year. But this man is just, apart from the I'm stupid moment, incredible around Baku. And Ferrari have whacked on a whole host of upgrades that worked very well in Monza. Were they the quickest car? No, McLaren were. But they were a lot closer. And Baku, very high speed, not as low drag as Monza, but it still is up there, I would say, with a track that could work well with Ferrari, especially in qualifying. So I'm back in my boy and I'm ready to get her all over again. It's a good prediction though. He is, I think back is one of those tracks where like Charlerclair's qualifying skills and bravery can.

Obviously it's bitten him before, but it's also kind of delivered him. I think he was on poll, wasn't he, in 2021? He was. Which we are doing a Patreon on actually. Oh, no, Patreon buff. collection. But yeah, he was on pole there, which of course that car was not a very, it wasn't a pole position car basically and he managed to do it in that season. So he is very good around her. What's your poll? My poll position. I've gone for Lando Norris.

That's a Max Verstappen prediction at this point, isn't it? Maybe it is now, yeah. It really is. But I can't bet against Lando doing it. around here. The McLaren is mighty. And, yes, I've gone for Lando Norris for Paul position, which I don't think I have done that much, to be fair. And didn't I put Lando to win in like

six of the races that he didn't win or something? Yeah, since Miami, you pretty much predicted him every single time. And he obviously hasn't. He's only won one since Miami. Yeah, which we don't want to say too loud for McLaren fans, do we? Let's go to our top three.

In third position, I am locking in. Oscar Piastri, he will get third position. He will have a solid weekend. Of course, there is a lot of chatter about McLaren and the teammate rivalry that's going on between the two of them, and it certainly has ignited some social discussions, to put it lightly. Some discussions, some just pure insults, but we won't get into that. That's a topic for another day.

Piestri, he is an incredible driver and he is improving every single weekend. Is he as good as Lando Norris right now? No, I don't think so. I think Lando has more experience and that over the course of the season is the reason why he's got more points. And of course, it is close between the two drivers though. And I feel as though Piastri might just slot in behind Lando this weekend in terms of raw speed. but a third position would still be very, very good for McLaren in the constructors.

P3, I have gone for Charles LeCler. And what a turnaround for Ferrari that me putting him on the podium has you shaking your head now rather than going, yes, my boy, Charles. That's so true. But Charlecoe did win the Italian Grand Prix just to remind you.

He did. Not the fastest car. And was probably one of the best drives of the year, if not the century? Maybe, definitely the best driver of the year, in my opinion. Good. And yeah, I think he's good at Baku. I didn't predict him on pole position,

but he's going to definitely be in the fight for pole position, I think. My opinion, he's so good around here. So, P3. Keep going, Tommy. No, I'm enjoying it. I'm enjoying your compliments. Okay, second position. Charle-Cla.

I'm not going ridiculously insane. You hate that. No, because I have lived and experienced a Charles LeClau pole and not win, not just at Baku in a lot of places, but Baku especially. And I feel as though this is going to be another weekend where Charles outperforms the car in qualifying, but that McLaren or whatever team will have better race pace and especially if they have both of the drivers up there.

Shire will find it very difficult to cover them both off. So P2. P2, I have gone for Oscar Piastri. I think he will deliver and he will be very close to Lando. But spoiler alert, maybe McLaren either do the right thing or the result that they kind of need to happen, whether people agree it needs to happen or not. but for them as a team, surely has to happen soon.

So I've gone for Oscar Piastri, P2, because, of course, that McLaren is just insane at the moment. And it can go to every track, and Baku is a little bit of everything as well. P1, who is our winner of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? For me, it is Lando Norris. So I feel as though myself and Tommy have gone in really different with our predictions this weekend.

but yes, I think Lando, he has to win. He has to win, surely. I've not given him pole position so that we can get rid of any, oh, he's going to lose pole, he's not going to lead after lap one, he won't have that concern because he'll be starting second, and then he will beat Charle de Clare because he'll have a faster car. Do I see it being a Titanic battle? Hopefully.

Maybe Charlele-c comes out on top, and I will take the zero points for it, if Charles doesn't, in fact, win and get back-to-back victories. But your brain's got to say Lando this weekend. And if that does happen, once again, a massive chunk taken out of Max Verstappen's lead. And we are seriously cooking for the rest of the year for the championship. P1, I have gone for Lando Norris. With every reason you said that it has to say. It used to be Vastappen.

It used to be Vastappen. Now it's Lando, but Lando doesn't win as often. He's one two, right, yes. Yeah, he should be in that situation with how he's been driving in qualifying and the car he's got underneath him. But for many reasons, he hasn't gone on to do that. I will admit now that I was very close to going for a very outrageous prediction and putting Piastri ahead of him and that Piastri would like basically not let him through.

Oh my goodness. Which I could see happening in a weird way for the chaos and, you know, no disrespect to anyone, I think it would be fascinating if we got a situation where Piastri was in the Lade Lando a second and we have to see what McLaren do again. I don't think they would want that. But then we would see all that narrative of can they tell Piastri, will they tell Piastri? Will Piesti even do it? Will he, has he had Mark Weber in his head going absolutely no way for your career.

Can you ever let anyone? Look what Max Verstappen did. He did it at Tarossi with Sites. Like he's made himself a number one driver from Day Dot and you have to do the same. What a crazy thing that would be to happen. But for this week's predictions I've gone for a more comfortable Lando Norris win, which, well, I think it's happened once, doesn't it, in Zandvort? They's had a comfortable win.

So we'll see. We will see. Miami was pretty comfortable once he was out in front as well, wasn't it? Yeah, yeah. I just drove away then as well. But yes, it's, I mean, what a scenario to even think about. If Oscar's leading, Lando's second and Lando's quicker, Lando's going for the move no matter what McLaren tell him.

That's how I see it. I think a small piece of Lando died in Monser where he was like, F this. I'm doing what I want. I think he's lost that slight innocence and maybe even naivety, I would say, with Oscar going around his outside on the second chican. And from here on, I think Lando will be a bit more of a tenacious. Could be the best thing that ever happens in his career.

That's an insane thing to say. Yeah, because perhaps there was a trust there. There was a, which is fine. You can have that with your teammate. But there was a, that trust can also lead to naivity. And that's what happened when Oscar went around the outside of him. I think from here on in Landau's going to have his backup a lot more. And perhaps if it's the other way around.

Who knows? Yeah, ruthless is exactly the word that Landau needs to be. Let's go to our one crazy prediction then. Hear me out. Joe finishes closer than 20 seconds behind Bottas. 20? You can't have 20 seconds. My bro, right, come on.

My bro hasn't got anywhere near to Bottas. It's got to be 10, surely. 15. can't be 20. 15. 15. Well, let's meet in the middle, 15. 15. All right. We'll do 15. Closer than 15. So it has to be 14.999. Yeah, yeah. Okay. What should be 15.001. But look, show's been having a tough time. And why do I think this? I don't know. I just tried to come up with a crazy prediction. Because I couldn't think of anything else. And I can't make all of my predictions about Charlotte, Clare or Ferrari. So yeah, Joe, my boy, come on. Sort it out.

Last time one of his back show, it didn't go well. That was you, isn't it? Yeah. It was. Normally you have better luck, though, these things than I do. At 139. How was that better luck? My one crazy prediction is that Lando Norris does not lose a place at the start of the race.

And I saw, I don't know if this is even crazier than the stat of him, never, basically, every time he started from pole, he's let someone. by. He is the only driver on the grid to never go up a single position at any race start this season. Of the whole 19 drivers, Lando has never gained a place of any of the races so far, which I found unbelievable, which is insane. So this is not only one crazy prediction. This is like the craziest of crazy prediction. It's literally never happened. He's qualified, 7th, 6, 3rd. third, third, fourth, fifth, second, fourth, third, first, third, second, third, first, fourth, and then first and first. And he's not gained a position the entire season.

The whole season. That is, that is bamboozling. It was, I couldn't believe it when I saw it, but I saw that loophole and I went, surely, it's going to have to change. Backu. To be fair. I can see it now. He gets slipstreamed down the Baku main straight and he just gets taken on the line for lap too.

Oh dear. Obviously, not funny for Lando. But, okay, so he won't lose a place, but he's not gained a place in all of those Grand Prix is pretty. Yeah, so I've gone for, yeah, it doesn't lose a place at the start. Okay, we've also got one bonus prediction. And that's because Olly Berman is on the grid, replacing Kevin Magnuson after he got banned for a race.

And we're going to predict where he's going to qualify, because I smashed Colopinto prediction. there's the clip prediction out the park in Monza why did I pause my brain can't be saying that

and then I just stopped so my prediction for bareman and where's going to qualify is 14th over to you Tommy interesting

I don't know why in my head I thought no I said 14th for colipinto didn't I I thought you said 14th last time for colopinto

which you got bang on but you said 18 no I said 18 For Ollie Behrman, I've gone for 16th position. Wow, you've gone a bit more conservative this time. A bit more conservative. Yes, so that would mean that he just misses out, of course, into Q2. Okay, and finally, three crazy predictions from you wonderful luck, first and foremost,

P1, Patreon member Ruben, Bearman points. Okay, okay. P1, Patreon member just in F-194, Williams double points. That's wild. and B1, Patreon member, Nicola Max, DNF. Now, that would link in beautifully with your biggest flop, Tommy. So yeah, that is the end of our predictions. Tommy, what is your final thoughts

before we head into this beautiful Baku weekend? My final thoughts are, I know we've been spoilt this season, but come on Baku, bring the spice. We are odour bang around Baku. It's been a while, isn't it? It really has. Let's fingers crossed. I think it all comes down to the wind direction.

The wind needs to create the biggest slipstream possible. So can we get a lovely headwind down the main straight? It's a safety car bridge safety car. And if you don't get that safety car, it is just a bit of a normal, like a dull race. Interesting. Okay, well, let's see. Thank you, everybody.

We'll see you soon. We'll be live on Twitch as always. Matt Pee-1, Tommy, if you haven't followed us already. And we're looking forward to another weekend of Ferrari dominance. See you soon. Lots of love. Bye. Bye.

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