P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2024 Belgian GP predictions

Episode Date: July 25, 2024

We're heading to Spa for the final race before the summer break, with plenty of questions still to answer. Will Max Verstappen start from the pits? Will Lando Norris ever win again? Which Mercedes driver do we think can challenge for the win? Let's find out!P1 Live is heading to North America this Fall and tickets are now on sale! Click here to get your tickets, which are already close to selling out!Sign up to our Patreon here! You'll get access to bonus episodes, our classic race series, every P1 episode ad-free and access to our Discord server where you can chat with other F1 fans!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok.. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the B1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. It's Belgian Grand Prix edition. Spa, we are nearly here. And it's time to see if we have been in the kitchen. Have we been seasoning a few predictions? Do we think we're going to get another? Well, I was going to say interesting race. Hungary wasn't interesting apart from the controversy on the team radio.

But we are overdue a banger. Like, Spar, you are beautiful. The track is just every driver's dream. You've got overtaking opportunities, supposedly, and yet we've not really seen any recently. So this year, is it going to happen, Tommy? Surely it is because, yeah, it's not delivered recently, which is a big shame because it's one of those circuits

where we could never have a good race there again, but as soon as it's dropped off the calendar, it would all be outraged because it is a legendary circuit and the one we all love, you know, driving on video games. And yeah, this is the, this is such a legendary track, but it is due, a tasty Grand Prix. And now this season has given us a lot of spice, a very unexpected spice compared to what we're expecting at the start of the season.

So maybe it's time. Maybe it's time, but I feel like we've said that over the last few years, to be honest with you. And we keep saying maybe it's time and then it never is time. But perhaps the weather will throw a. curveball. Let's see. Now, before we dive into that, breaking news, Esteban Ocon to Hass. Yes, not the most surprising news ever, but still worthy discussion point, I would say, because Esteban Ockon is joining the team alongside Olly Behrman. Now, that is, that's a tasty little

lineup, in my opinion. You've got Esteban O'Con, who, let's not forget, is a decent driver. this man just because oh just because he said Esty Best is on the podium baby people are saying he's cringe or whatever like the man gets a lot of disrespect but he is great on the track he is a fast driver he's been a match for teammates such as Fernando Alonzo

recently of course he's alongside Pierre Gasly and they're very very close as well he's a very good driver and he's going to be pairing up with Ollie Behrman who of course is a young prospect a young talent something that is always very excited isn't it, to see a new driver come onto the grid to see how they stack up against the old guard.

I know Ockon isn't old, but he's an older guard than Olly Beerman is. And Hasse, they're rolling the dice. They're doing something different and I'm excited for it. I'm excited for it too. I think it's about time that Hasse shook up their lineup and went for something completely new and they've got that nice mix of a driver, a quick driver.

They mentioned this in their press release and it's the first time that a race winner has ever driven for Hats. and they've got a very strong driver in Esteban Okon, who's been around for a long time, and he's going to be a great benchmark for Olly Behrman, see just how good Olli Bearman is as well. So, yeah, it's really exciting. Like you say, Ockon gets far too overhated, in my opinion.

Yes, he's had collisions with teammates and things in the past, but at the end of the day, he was that driver at Mercedes way back when, that we're all praying for Botas to get out that seat and let Ocon in because he'd challenge Lewis Hamilton and always the best, you know, young drive we've seen in ages. Did we say that? So don't pretend we didn't because everyone did. He was amazing in that racing point. Not challenge, not like saying he was going to beat him.

I'm just saying this out loud just so that the Team LH news sites don't say that Tom Bellingham thinks Ockon will challenge results. Well, I don't, but everyone was like, Bottas is terrible. We need someone else in. And he was hyped just like George Russell was. So let's be fair to him. Like that was a narrative that happened. Of course, he ended up not having a seat at all and losing his seat. And then he's kind of hopped around a few different teams.

But he's doing a solid job. He's a race winner like we said before. And yeah, I'm excited to see how he does. And it's not even a backward step, which you would think. No, it's not. I think, you know, looking at our. Alpine versus Hass coming into the season. You'd be thinking, well,

Hasse are coming into 2024 with their own team principles saying, yeah, we're probably going to be pretty bad. And everyone expecting Hasse to be the slowest car. That has not been the case. And if anything, Alpine have had one of the biggest struggles out of all the teams on the grid. They've been slowest. Then they have a bit of a trajectory upwards.

Then they had an interview with me and you. And they've been horrendous the last two Grand Prix. So it's not. it's not even maybe even a sideways step at the moment. Perhaps when you look at it as two teams, you go, well, Alpine probably have more of a potential moving forward than Hasse. I think that there's a lot of expectation that we're not going to see Hasse challenge in the top three, top four. They're not a huge manufacturer like Alpine slash Renault is.

But that being said, we've had many drivers over the last few years join Alpine, join Renno, thinking, well, they are a big manufacturer. Surely they're going to be towards the front of the field soon and we've not really had that. They've not been winning races apart from obviously that crazy one in Hungary with Ocon.

So yeah, it's a different move for Ocon. He's going to have a Ferrari engine in the back of his car. Will that one day mean that he might try and get into that Ferrari seat when things move on for Hamilton and whatever? That is bold. You never know, though.

The driver market is thrown up. Many, many, many crazy things. this year and previously so so you never know um but it's a good move for him it's time for a change he's moving into a team that like you say ironically when we thought it would be a backward step have three times as many points as alpine um and if it gives him an opportunity to go into has and if he delivers and scores a lot of points then yeah like it sounds really far-fetched to go oh a top team might want him but maybe he could do incredible things you know Sergio Perez do I dare mention him because he's obviously not on a great run of form but if we look back before Red Bull he has shown that in

his career you can like it's never too late to join a top team I know it's not gone well for him but obviously he was in a midfield car for so long had a brilliant season where he showed great potential and then a team was like, no, let's give Perez a chance. So you never know. You never know indeed. And for Olly Beerman, it's pretty much a win-win situation, to be honest. I think that we've mentioned he's got a great benchmark, but also there's not that much expectation on him. Of course, he's a young prospect. We want to see him do well. But if he doesn't beat Ocon over the course of the next season, it's not going to look bad on him. But if he manages to match him on several occasions, it's going to be good for his CV, isn't it? So for Ali Beerman,

I'm really excited to see how he does stack up because if he does just end up beating Esteban next year, then we've got a very young talent, hot talent that can really go far. Yeah, definitely. Ollie's not had the greatest Formula two season, has to be said. But all his kind of hype and and reason for his Formula One drive was his sensational performance in Saudi. He's very... You can look back at it now and go he's actually very fortunate

that he got that opportunity to show what he can do because if we'd gone on what he's doing in Formula 2 right now, a lot of people were saying he doesn't deserve to be there, but he showed that he does deserve to be there when he was given that chance.

So yeah, I'm excited to see what he does. Okay, let's get into our predictions then and start with Biggest good surprise. All right. Hear me out. My biggest good surprise for the Belgian Grand Prix is Lando Norris. Yeah.

Look, he's only won one Grand Prix this year, but I feel like another victory is on the cards. Spoiler alert for what my top three might be, or at least one of them. I know it's going to require him to win the Grand Prix, but he's amazing around Belgium. I think that obviously he had that massive crash in qualifying a few years ago, didn't he?

But he was actually on course to potentially take pole in very changeable, tricky conditions. And I just think that McLaren are going to be really good around Spar again. It looks like Max Verstappen's going to be taking a 10-place penalty if not starting at the back

if he decides to take a whole host of other things. So the door is wide open for McLaren to win this race and that is why I'm going for Lando Norris. Interesting. I'm glad you kind of covered off the fact that he kind of needs to win to be the biggest good surprise now. And he is very good in the changeable conditions as well, which it looks like it's going to be so far. We'll see. But it's still Friday and Saturday rain, so let's see. Biggest good surprise, I have gone a lot more of a rogue choice than you and gone for Sergio Perez. Now, his is the opposite. He just needs to not crash all weekend.

his biggest good surprise. No, he's off the back of a lovely little P7 in Hungary. Huge points of Red Bull. Exactly. I think he's going to have a better weekend, keeps out the wall, delivers a strong points finish, which I can see happening.

What's a strong points finish? Little jickey P5 or something like that. Okay. And you cannot say, and I'm covering off this loophole now, oh well I know he finished P9 but he did out qualify Max for Stappen who started from the back

okay well yeah I won't I won't be going for that one I'm just covering off now because I can see I can see there might be a little cheeky something there yeah but but Perez he needs a good race whether it's already been decided and it's all too late we don't know

but maybe if he has it they might just go you know what let's keep him well Helmut Marco said that after after the Monday of the Belgian Grand Prix that's when they'll discuss the procedure or whatever it is. So they are leaving it to the very last second

by the sounds of it. And Helmut Marco is usually quite upfront with what they are doing in that rebel program. It sounds like they're giving him till the end of Belgian Grand Prix and then they'll assess everything. So no pressure, Sergio. No, not really.

But I think the man has, he can't really have much worse form. So hopefully, for his sake, he just picks it up. Okay, let's move on to biggest flop. Now I've tried this once. Didn't work. This time it's going to. work, Lance Troll.

He's known as a qualifying specialist in the rain, although I don't remember the last time we actually saw a qualifying special from him in the rain. But I just feel as though it's got to happen. He's going far too quietly under the radar and scoring points and beating Fernando Alonzo. Alonso is going to have to chef him at some point, and I feel like this is the weekend for it.

So yeah, biggest flop, Lance Troll, but as you always know, this is just vibes. Biggest flop. I've gone for a team. Oh no again and the team is Aston Martin so I am very much

looking forward to Fernando Alonso winning the Grand Prix because you've predicted the straw but they've kind of snuck back into it's not quite

Formula A but ahead of Formula B and there or thereabouts I feel like they're going to go back to being absolutely abysmal again that's interesting that you say that because you would like to think that a little rainy spa in qualifying

would allow Alonzo to really get the ingredients out and cook up a storm. But you just feel as though they're going to be horrendous and he won't be able to do anything. I just don't feel like it's going well in that team at all. They've really dropped off form. I don't think the atmosphere is great. I think it was very interesting that Fernando Alonzo kind of didn't get the favour returned by stroll, but of course he's not going to publicly have a go at him when his dad is the boss.

So that was also another kind of interesting thing that Alonzo would always kind of be very outspoken about stuff like that. But of course the situation there is a different one. So yeah, just don't see Aston Martin being any good. Okay, well, we're both going for something going on in Aston Martin. Let's go to pole position then. Lewis Hamilton. Lewis Hamilton's getting pole. Changeable conditions.

Mercedes, they might be all right in those conditions. When you're back in a driver like that to get pole position, if we genuinely do have quite a lot of rain coming for Saturday. And Mercedes aren't that far off. Of course, Hungary was a bit of a wake-up call, but then Hungary is a very different track to spa. and you'd like to think that SPAR is more similar to Silverstone in the sense of it's like a power track.

So yeah, I think Hamilton will grab pole. Interesting. So poll position I've gone for Max Verstappen, which of course, I know what you're thinking, but it is still pole position if he qualifies in pole position. And I don't think that even with a penalty, yeah. Oh my God, don't tell me, like we've had this conversation so many times. times with Charlerler

because it counts as poll so Max will I think still want to try and bag a pole position because he'll want to suffer the damage he's not going to just be like I'm going to start

from the pit lane he will take he'll want to start P11 so I think he's going to decide to take loads of different parts right no obviously he will it's not confirmed yet It might be by the time we post this because it's very likely. They always do it at SPAR.

They may choose to take more parts. They may not. But I think that they, if it is just that 10 second penalty, which we think may happen. There it is again. There it is again. Tommy's got the wrong penalty. Oh, why do I ever say 10 second penalty? 10 place penalty.

If he has that 10 place grid penalty, like is rumored, then he's going to go for pole position anyway and I think he will deliver it. Okay, interesting. You think Red Bull are going to be back? Back at right? And of course, I think another reason for that is he doesn't have that luxury like he did last year

where it does feel like he will just fly through the field and I mean, the last two years has to be said that even if he'd started last he would have won. But not anymore, I don't think. Not anymore, I don't think it's going to be as easy. Okay, cool. Let's go to our top three then. In third position, I am locking in Oscar Piastri. Oscar will get a nice little podium, but not another victory. I don't see it. Don't see it in my mind's eye. No disrespect to him. He drove incredibly around Hungary. But when we're looking at pure raw, unadulterated speed, still lacking a tiny bit at the end of that race to Lando.

So I think that, well, I obviously believe that Lando's going to be right up there. Not on pole, but I think Lando might be on the front row and, yeah, I'll score finish third. P3, I have gone for Max Ossappen. I think he's making it to the podium, but no more if he has his 10 place penalty. Your brain literally just started worrying then, didn't it? Okay, in second place, I am locking in. Lewis Hamilton, he will have a great race, but it won't be P1, because I wonder who I've gone for.

Who could it be? But I might have, I might have, this whole thing might have been a ruse, and I've actually spread my eggs. That's a weird. You know, I haven't put all my eggs in one basket. Yeah. Because spreading my eggs sounds weird. P2, I have gone for Lando Norris.

Oh, more is that to say. Yeah, gone for Lando Need I say more Exactly like you did last time Yeah, you should say more, sir I should say more I should say more I think that he'll

I don't think McLaren will be as quick As we all think they will at spa Wow I don't I don't think they're going to be far and away the best cars You know they'll think they'll still be very good Who do you think's going to be the best car

Well, we'll see won't we? Oh! I think it will actually be genuinely really close between the big teams. Maybe not Ferrari, sorry. I mean, come on, I thought you were going to say Ferrari as well. But I don't think McLaren will be far and away like the best like they have been in the most recent races, maybe. Okay, interesting.

All right. So first position I have gone for Lando Norris. Yeah, Lando's going. the win and then I can start to reply to people that have said how can you possibly think rando can win the championship from here he's he's 76 points behind landa if lando norris lando norif all of this there's a there I am seeing an outrageous amount of snowballing hate for lando norese at the moment and yes I don't it's becoming more and more football isn't it by the day

Formula 1 and it's just not really nice to see and a lot of people not knowing anything about Formula 1 either in the sense of thinking it's all over

with Max being 76 points ahead but when you look at the pace and you look at where the teams are Red Bull aren't the fastest car at the moment so yeah Landon Ars is going to win and he's going to put the middle finger up to everybody that's been horrible to him and then he goes into the summer break

and we'll be going on imagine if you had an extra seven points it'd be a bit closer wouldn't he But apparently if I say if Lando Norris had seven extra points or loses by seven points, it's the most ridiculous thing anyone's ever said. Shock.

P1, I have gone for Lewis Hamilton. It's getting another win. I think they were very good at Silverstone, of course. Spars more similar to Silverstone. I think Hamilton's on a great run of form, even at Hungary which didn't suit their car, got a podium. And yeah, I think Mercedes are going to be good.

to answer your question now, I think it's going to be very difficult to decide between Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull of who actually has the fastest package for me and I hope that is the case because it would make it a very exciting Grand Prix. Okay, all right, so told me through that just very quickly

the brain, the Tommy brain that's going, the Tommy Brain Bellingham. Yeah. Stappen starts 11th. You think he's going to be. the likes of George Russell, the likes of Oscar Piastri, you think he's going to...

But not quite get there. So you do think he'll be the fastest package overall then? You must do, I think he's going for that. One of, if not the fastest package, yeah. Like, I think Vestappen is going to be absolutely rapid this weekend. He loves spa. He's really quick there. I don't think he'll have anywhere near the problems he had in Hungary.

And I think he'll be very, very quick. I just don't think he has... as much of an advantage that he's going to breeze through the entire field when, you know, last two years maybe, it was just a case of like him just trying to beat Sergio Perez and he got there in about 20 laps. But when you've got people like Lando and Lewis Hamilton in great form and very, very quick, I feel like them, if they start near the front and fly off into the distance, it's going to make it a lot harder when, don't get me wrong,

I think Max will, it will be another case of, even though they've shortened the DRS straight, of him just breezing past lots of dustbins at the back every single lap, but he'll just run out of laps to get past. So Hamilton and Norris going to fly off into the distance, so Russell's not going to have any pace this weekend. Oh, very interesting. Okay, let's go to one.

Yeah, exactly, that's what I was thinking, because Russell has been on incredible form. One crazy prediction. Mine is, Max Verstappen will not have one angry radio message during the race. Is that crazy prediction? Yes! Okay, no sats. So like no sass at all.

I was going to put sass and I changed it to angry just so that I had like a little bit of a loophole there. Oh, no, you know. Oh, GP. Okay, one sad. Because he's going to be watched like a hawk as well. Yeah, he will. to his radio. So I feel like that is actually a crazy prediction, to be fair,

to honest with you. Like, you know what I mean? Yeah. If he, Coms will be on anything he says slightly negative. Like if he mentions that, you know, he didn't like his dinner earlier.

Like they'll be playing that. That would play it. So I think that that is a very crazy prediction because at some point something's going to happen. Over the weekend. No, race. Don't be silly. Come on.

The race is enough. The race is enough. Interesting. Especially if he's starting 11. He's going to complain about something, isn't he? Yeah, okay, fair. My one crazy prediction is Alpine get a point. What, they find out what the point is, or?

Well, I mean, I nearly went for Pierre Gassley finishes the race, but I'll go for Alpine get a point. Maybe they are backing it with their, I know it said Spider-Man livery. What is it? Deadpool livery. Deadpool, yeah. That's the one.

Looks very cool. It looks very, very cool. It doesn't anything like an Alpine, and I love how that's just like something they can do because Ryan Reynolds is there, but here we are. They're just literally a moving advertising board now, really. They won't allow paint for just normally,

but if Ryan Reynolds says, look, I'm putting in a lot of cash here. To be fair, I don't know how much more paint there actually is on it. It's just more black and red, isn't it? You actually look at the amounts that are actually painted, I don't think it's too. Yeah, true. It's still similar to what the Alpine was. They've got more on the nose and stuff and whatever.

But yeah. Well, when you slow, you may as well go slower and be an advertising board, right? Because I guess people can take in the car a bit more if it's going slower. Anyway, right, three crazy predictions from you lot, first and foremost, FFP to MF. Max Verstappen gets a full eight hours sleep and wins. We're going to have to get confirmation on how much he sleeps for that race. Imagine if Max does win and goes, went to bed at 10pm. Thanks everybody.

Sam 467822, Ferrari double DNF. Great. No one cares. And Polsky, Polack. A driver from Formula B will be on the podium. That is bold. That is very bold, because that includes basically the bottom five teams, because I don't think we can call Aston Martin in Formula B,

or are we including Aston Martin in Formula B this time? Well, I guess probably. Less include them. Yeah, less include. Yeah, anyone with less than 100 points in the constructors, because the others are well ahead now. That's the mind of absolutely nowhere near Merck, are they? Sad times.

Okay, that's it. Thank you, everybody, for watching and listening as always. Remember, we have our US live show tour. Crack-a-lacking right now. The tickets are available. So please come along if you'd like to see us. And Tommy, what are your final thoughts? I don't think you read out the order because shock I'm leading,

so I just let everyone know that I'm 34 to 13. 32 at the moment. Yeah, no one cared. That's why I didn't share it, really. I'm sure we'll Michael Massey it one way or another to get it back to level playing field. But let's see, actually, because usually we Michael Massey it when I'm ahead.

So let's see if you actively start Michael Massey now that you're winning. Of course, I won last year. So we'll see if you just, oh, extend the lead to five, six, seven, eight points. Oh, sorry, Matt, just get better. We'll see. Anyway, lots of love. Bye. Bye.

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