P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Abu Dhabi GP predictions

Episode Date: December 4, 2025

It's all come down to this... One of the most intense and talked about title fights goes down to the final weekend, as Matt 'Good' Gallagher and Tom 'Boring' Bellingham face off for one final time in the 2025 P1 Predictions Championship...Please vote for us in the Autosport Awards 2026! https://www.autosport.com/awards-voting/You can listen to an extended version of every Race Review episode over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P-1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. The energy is high because today, its predictions, the championship goes down to the wire in Abu Dhabi, not just for Lando Norris, Oscar Piastria, Max Verstappen, but also for Tom Boring Bellingham and Matt's the good Gallagher. Just made that up on the spot. People would be calling me Greedy Gallagher's, which is absolutely crazy. But here we are, Tommy.

58, 55 to you, three points separating us, which, to be fair, we need to correct that there was an adjustment made. And everybody that says that I'm always trying to get points, your dad included, well, I was the one to message you that you got it wrong about the five people across the two sprint and main race podiums. So there you go. I gave a point away. I could have easily got away with that. You could have because, yeah, I completely brain farted and forgot that the podium. Of course, George was on there and not Max in the sprint. That's what comes back.

So you are three points clear. Now, of course, a champion is going to be crowned, both here and also in Abu Dhabi. So there's going to be a bonus point on offer for getting the world champion correct. And we can go for the same driver for that one prediction because it's unfair of whoever gets first, probably. There's a more higher percentage chance of it coming in. So there you go. It is all to play for. Let's dive into it and begin for one final time in 2025 with a good surprise.

My good surprise. You're smiling. So I don't know if you've gone for the same one. Probably we think very alike. I'm going for Alex Albon is my good surprise. He's been on a very, I'm going to say steady, slightly lower than steady run of form. of late. Carlos has been

chefing like no tomorrow. He has been in the kitchen cooking up Gordon Ramsey level meals, a couple of podiums. Alex,

it's time for him to shine in this one. We've been, we were so impressed with him in the first half of the year. And I would love

to see him finish the season strongly and secure, well, yeah, he's nine points ahead of Carlos in the championship now,

which I hope we don't see a graphic during the race because you know what, one I like. But Alex Albon is my pick. Yeah, it would be peak Formula One when there's a top three championship fight to be like the fight for eighth. So my good surprise, I have gone for Nico Holcomberg. And the reason for that is that I looked at the last two years and was like,

wow, Holcomburg qualified incredibly well in the house. So I feel like he's also improved his form a lot since the kind of lull he had in the middle of the season. Of course, had a bad race last time out, but his qualifying has improved quite a lot. It has to be said. And a track that it goes well at, I've gone for The Hulk. The Hulk is locked in. Tommy, who are you going for a big flop? Now, you mention about your competitiveness and how you will always just go for a point, no matter what. This may be a bit of a cheap one, but I've gone for Esteban Ockon. The logic here is that he's on quite a poor run of form compared tolly

Behrman, he's been struggling quite a bit towards the end of the year. He actually missed Abu Dhabi last year as well due to the whole. So terms up, it's no point. Wow. Better the last year. Yeah, about the last year. So I'm, yeah, kind of banking on him forgetting how to drive Abu Dhabi. No, Esty Besty. Lock in, bro. This is for me.

There we go. All right. You've gone for Estevan Arcon. Speaking of cheap points. Don't you dare go for you go for him, aren't you? I've gone for Yuki Sonoda. I think, sadly, and I could have easily just flopped one of the three championship contenders and been like, well, I didn't win the world championship. So that's a flop of the entire year. That's five points.

Now, I've gone for Yuki Sonoda because I do feel like Qatar was a flash in the pan. I feel he will go back to being in Struggle Town. And, yeah, it'll be sad. It'll be sad to see. I will knee slide across my room if it does come in. I'm really sorry, Yuki. Of course, this could well be his last race in Formula One on a human level. Of course, I would love to see Yuki do well and do something like he did in the sprint in Qatar.

But from a predictions, cold-hearted level, give me the point. Yuki, please I beg. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Like, Yuki just, come on. You can't win the World Championship. But you could help Max. Could you could help. As a lapped car. All right. It might be a flop if he's, if he's going 30 seconds a lap slower in the middle sector, like Paris did. I've already thought of every scenario, Tommy. Come on, Yuki. Be the teammate. Max Verstappan needs as I'm wearing a Max Verstabiner's tour t-shirt. Right. Let's go to pole position. My poll position for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is Oscar Piastri

Oscar Piastri has gone locked in I feel right so this is of course off of Qatar as well and how well he did there but with everything that's riding

my brain just says that Oscar Piastri is at the very least going to get pole position I won't spoil anything else but I just feel as though with Lando is going to feel a huge amount of pressure

and that is very that's a human thing to feel. If he gets pole position and wins, Lando Norris, fair play. And he's answered many critics over the last few races. Anyway, he should be world champion right now had it not been for the disqualification in Vegas. But I feel as though

Oscar Piastri will drive like a man possessed, and I feel like he will be as quick as he was in Qatar. So I've gone for Oscar Piastri poll position. Okay. I have gone, I had gone for Oscar Piastri pole position as well. For exactly the same reason.

I think McLaren will be strong here. I think Oscar has turned a page despite obviously the disappointment of what happened last time, but I would change it to Lando Norris. I think you, yeah, I do think McLaren are going to be exceptionally strong here. And that's why I'm going to go for Lando. I do think there will be some nerves there, of course. I wouldn't be surprised if there was, you know, maybe one lap during the session where runs a bit wide or whatever like we saw it in Qatar.

but no, I think I think he can lock in and grab pole position. Well, you do now because I took your prediction. Well, yeah, yeah. Well, I do think he will do still. Yeah, he's got a fantastic chance. He's brilliant around Abu Dhabi. He is. And I think it's a very safe prediction to go for that.

Third position, Tommy. P3, you know what that means? It means George Russell. Welcome to the predictions championship again. Yeah, gone for George Russell, P3. I think he will be in the mix. I think he could be a very interesting player in the championship. There's obviously a lot of, a lot of, it feels like if someone's going to be that driver to get in the mix,

you know, no disrespect, because Antonelli has beaten him, you know, in the last few, but, like, you know, George has more experience and not equally like Ferrari have just fallen off a cliff now, it seems. So that's why I'm going to go for George Russell. Okay, third position George Russell locked in for Tommy I'm changing mine on the fly Not because I had George Russell Just genuinely because I'm concerned about antics That might well be played here

Considering you get first position dibs In third position I am going for Lando Norris Lando will finish third Which I mean our world champion prediction Could well be spreading our eggs So don't worry Yeah, of course.

Because we've done that many times. But in third position, I am going for Lando. I didn't want to put him third, but I'm thinking ahead right now. In second position, I am going to... Oh, no. No, it's just dawned on me.

That's not the correct way to have gone about these things, Matt. Because I know what you're going to go for in fair. place. So this is, this is, this is, oh my God, it can't be. Do you though? No, I do. If, if you've, you've given away what you're going to go for pole position. Oh, my God. This is tough. This is tough. Oh, yeah, no, you're baiting. You're baiting. I know for a fact. Oh, gosh. What do I do? Oh, my God. I'm going to go for. Oh, this is so bad because if you go for Oscar Faye. and then I go for who I want to go in second,

then who the hell do I put first? That's not going to be good, because I can't, George is not winning Abu Dhabi. I'm sorry, he's not. In second place, I'm going for Oscar Piastri. I'm locking in Oscar Piastri, P2, because I won't be able to choose him first, so I have to go for him second

and then go for someone that might win. So there you go. Oscar Pastery, P2, that was a long deliberation. I apologize. P2, I have gone for. Lando Norris. Yes, I think you kind of called that one. I think you saw where, see where this is going.

And yeah, I think Lando, I can see Lando being, and quite rightly, cautious in the World Championship fight. I think he'll have the car to win, but of course, he doesn't need to win. I think that is very important to remember for him and McLaren, whether they do or not, is another question. but that's why I'm going for Lando P2 Yep very fair indeed Tommy who have you gone for first position

because you have not mentioned Oscar Piastri and he's not mentioned Max Vastappan So P1 I have gone for Do da da da Oscar Pastery Astri If you put Max and I was screwed

Yeah I know Oscar Piastri, I'm going for Oscar P1. I think he's going to want to take that win. Obviously, this scenario means that he would not win the World Championship. Norris would win the World Championship. But Piastri, going into the final race, getting that win, give him some momentum to take into the new year, even though obviously could potentially be difficult winter reflecting on

how the championship's gone, but it'd be a nice way to see him end the year. Okay, in first position, obviously, initially, I was going to go for Oscar Piastri, but I've changed it on the fly, as you've been hearing for the last few minutes. So my first position is going to be Max Verstappen.

I do not believe it in the slightest, but also, stranger things have happened in literally the last few races, and I can't put anyone else up there. that could do something. And Max's pace and Catar wasn't that bad. McLaren were quicker, hard to really judge considering they were on different strategies

and McLaren were on full push because they were doing a different way of doing their pit stops. But Max gets into P1, he's got a chance for sure. I know I'm saying I don't believe it. But if Max somehow finds himself leading the race, those elbows will be the widest thing you've ever seen. And if Lando... It might be backing up the field, to be honest.

Yeah, and if Lando's in second, Lando will just sit there. Lando doesn't need to try and pass Max if... He'll be world champion. He can just follow Max home. I'd love to see what Max would then do. Would he then do a Lewis Hamilton? Lewis Hamilton, yeah. On Rosberg, trying to back him into the pack and things like that.

Plenty of chaos that could well ensue, but that's only if Max goes into the lead. Can I just congratulate Lando Norris on victory at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix as well? Yeah, you're going for... For sure. Sorry, me going for Piastri, you're going for Pia. Max. Yeah, and I think that Lando could well just dominate this weekend, but the things that, if it was just a normal weekend, I would say, yes, Lando, back him, maybe Oscar, it'd be quite

close between the two of them, with everything that's on the line and how the championship in some very strange ways is slipping away from him ever so slightly, he's still in the pound seats. And he doesn't need to win, does he like? He doesn't need to take risk, doesn't need to take risk for track limits. He just needs to qualify in the top three. There's so many things that I'm sure be playing in his head.

That's why I've not backed him for this weekend. Right, let's go to one crazy prediction. At least two drivers will be in championship winning position during the race. Oh, okay. So at some point,

when Landon Horace does his pit stop at the start and drops to fifth and then, yeah. I'm going to get into the specifics of the teaser. C's, and I was hoping you weren't going to think about the T's and C's, so I've just locked that one in, and Michael Massey has resurrected, so there you go. That is, that is my prediction. My one crazy prediction I have gone for, Lewis Hamilton makes Q3.

For God's sake. Oh, that's a good loophole. Yeah, that's good. When's the last time he made Q3? That's a very good question. Well, there's been four sessions he's not made it, so I need facts a long time. right now. Let me see qualifying Lewis Hamilton because if he's God they are bad aren't they? Go on, hit us with the last ones.

Okay, well let's just do the entire season. Hamilton has qualified 8th 5th, 8th, 9th, 7th, 9th, 12th, 12th, 4th 5th, 5th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 12th, 7th, 5th, 12th, 3rd, 13th, 12th, 3rd, 13th, 20th. And that's it. And then Catah, which was 18th, but it's not my script. 18th and 18th again in the sprint. then that's in the sprint as well. So he hasn't made, yeah.

It hasn't actually made Q3 that much. It's not a big as loophole as I think. No, I mean, that's not my four. It's a run of four, isn't it? He hasn't made Q3. It's even made out of Q1 in the run of four. Anyway, it's not been great. Yeah, Brazil.

Okay, all right. I'll allow it. Let's go to our Patreon prediction, Tommy. My Patreon prediction is from That Bloke. And it is. Carlos Seintz finishes ahead of Alex Albon in the World Drivers' Championship. which basically means

yeah it needs nine points so a fifth place needs to finish fifth or above and Alex no score obviously you've gone for a good surprise I saw it it's obviously a long shot but that's where it should be

and yeah I thought it was quite a good one so went for that I also thought this Patreon prediction was really good so I've gone for it it's from Marty the season will be over and there will be zero controversy peace will reign

and there will be goodwill to all men so so this is basically like if the title is just the biggest anti-climax it's literally just lights the flag someone wins nobody dive bombs nobody does anything silly and it's literally just the end which i think is actually unlikely considering max vastappan and what max yeah yeah um so yeah no controversy is essentially my but it's also at abdhabi so you never know you do never know and how do we rate controversy when we think of 2021 like you know just yeah because that was an absolutely stinker of a race and then... It was. Yeah. And then Michael Massey pressed the big

red safety car button. Right. World champion. Who is going to be crowned? The Formula One world champion in 2025. Remember we can both go for the same one. My world champion is... D-do-do-do-d-d-d-d-d-Landois.

Landon Norris. Landon Norris is going to be World champion. I'm, I'm pretty confident. Should everything, and that's a big caveat, should everything go to plan, Lander knows to be world champion, and it's as simple as that. Yeah, easily. I've also gone for Landerthus. Well, Tommy, try that again, but with more hype and more suspense. Yeah, Lander Norris. Yeah, Lander Norris is winning the championship. We all knew what was going to happen with all the sectors.

Yeah, exactly. You, you, if you listen, listen to the bonus episodes, I said, 85% looking at this championship permutations, I'm now like, wow, I don't even know if 85% covers it. But we'll see. Would you have gone for Max for Sassap and World Champion had Kimmy Antony not gone off and Lando would have had been 10 points ahead? Because that would have mean he'd needed third. They'd need to finish first or second with Max. If Max won, he'd need to finish second. He'd have been able to finish third, wouldn't he as well? No, that's this connotation now Oh sorry, yeah, of course

He's to finish on the podium Oh no, he can finish fourth No, Max will have more wins Uh, no It's 12 points Wait, fourth or lower Oh, sorry, it's identical, isn't it? Bro, we, look, if there's one thing I'm good at

You're good at knowing the entire history of Formula 1 I'm good at maths, don't try me Sorry, of course, no, because what was in my head I was remembering those scenarios of George Russell But then, yeah, of course I realised Yeah, he's got to be on the podium P2 then then i would be a bit more likely and it would just be what would be more likely i don't know

would it be more likely because max starts to win i just this is the thing i don't think max is winning abadabby but then i said that about vagueness that about kata and obviously kata was even way less likely to him to win it it requires a fumble from a car it's the only way i see it yeah that's i've seen that a few times oh right okay both Both of us are going for Landon-Noros World Champion. Let's head to the family top three, where it is currently, it's 14-9, isn't it 13-9? I feel like you've got one point. No, two.

No, two. Yeah, my dad got the top two. You got the top two. Did he? Oh, yeah. So it's 14-9 to the Boring Bellingham's, and sadly, it has not been past that it is not a double-point situation. So this is all just for fun. I am going to call, and considering it is just for fun, I'm bringing in.

I'm bringing in, Georgina. Yes, we love to see it. I'm bringing in my wonderful sister to drop her will knowledge. And this is where she scores a perfect three-pointer, which doesn't mean anything when we get to the end of it. Georgina, please, I literally messaged you, say that I was going to ring you. And she's not picking up.

Hello? Wow. Is she joking? Imagine if this was the actual The Championship was still on and that's null and void. Like you've, DNS. Yeah, a DNS in the family

top three is wild. Finally! I was, we're recording and I told you and you didn't pick up. Hello! Hello, Georgina. Welcome to the P1 podcast. The Gallagas have lost

so this is all just for fun. What do you mean? Oh, you've been watching every podcast, right? You've been tuning in. Sure. Um, so we've actually lost. That's annoying. Yeah, we have lost.

It's very annoying. But this is the way the cookie crumbles, sadly. Can you give me, please, your third position for Abu Dhabi the finale? Oh, I'm going to say Oscar. Oscar third. Okay, in second? Second, I'm going to say Max for Stappen. Right.

And in first position? Dund, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dund, d'n, d'n, d'n, um, Lando. Wow. A very normal set of predictions. No, no Fernando Alonzo, no Lewis Hamilton. Were there any other drivers in your mind that you're going to drop randomly, or were you always set on those three? Yeah, always set on those three, my guy.

Wow, I can't wait if you to score a three pointer, and it means nothing in this family top three. Thank you, mate. Speak you soon. Love you. Bye, bye, bye, bye, bye, bye. All right. Wow. No.

Great set of predictions. Yeah, a very normal at the wrong time. But there we are. It's fine. All right. Tommy, over to you. Who are you filming?

Yeah, so don't worry if you were expecting some fun predictions from Georgina and she didn't deliver because I have brought in Grace again. Ah, here we go. And even better this time. So look, she's three and a half now. She's, you know, old enough to, exactly. She's old enough to be able to do this herself. so no picture of the drivers she just has to say

so it might be a unicorn in first place we don't know okay so here we go that's minus points she goes for a unicorn okay here we go right I need you to tell everybody hello today right is the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix okay the final Formula One race of the season who's gonna finish

In third place. Max Verstappen. Max Verstappen? Who's going to finish second? Uh, uh, Kay Gersley. Hey Gersley.

And who's going to win the Abidabie Grand Prix? Um, Colapinto. Colapinto? Whoa! I'm going to fall! Oh, that's got me. So who's going to win the world championship?

Max Verstappen, Lando. Oros or Oscar Piastri? Oscar Piastri. Oscar Piastri? There we go. She has betrayed Max Verstappen at the last

to say Oscar Piastri is going to be world champion. Yeah, crazy. Wow. There you go. Franco Colopinto is winning the Avidavi Dhabi Grand Prix. And Oscar Piastri

winning the title. She knows the stat that every time a three-car, do you see that, the three-car championship? fight, the third place wins. Wow. Which is mad.

That's happened. How many times? The last two times it's happened. The last two times. 2010-2007. I think it meant every time. I was like, wow. Okay.

But the last two. Yeah. Interesting. Go and tell Grace she's not done her math as well because Oscar's 16 boys behind. Yeah, exactly. The two Alpians aren't in the championship. No, she's your daughter. I'm kidding.

She's three and a half. I can't really have a go after that. I know maths are better than mine. One thing that's actually quite funny, let you into a little funny thing that happened is my so like by the side of our TV um we have like this like little like crystal thing like an ornament and um when i got back down after the race uh after kata katy was like oh have you seen where she put the maxa stepan like little model car that i bought her back from when we did the

tour in the netherlands and i looked and she'd like placed it on the crystal before the race and i've left it there to like manifest like I was like if it's put the power if that if that can if that can do what Qatar did I'm leaving it there yeah yeah I mean the onesie and now the crystal with with the car on top we're doing everything grace has superpowers unbelievable well there you go thank you everybody that is the final predictions of the year don't worry once Abu Dhabi is complete we will be reflecting on our 2025 season predictions as well as looking back on our entire 20th to first championship prediction as well. I absolutely love those videos. So looking forward to that. Tommy, what are your final thoughts for the final time

in predictions in 2025? My final thoughts are this has been so much fun. I've really enjoyed doing the predictions. I think it's great. And I love the thing we've added to basically like that you can't predict the same thing. I think it's made such a more interesting scenario in a year where obviously like a lot of the time we've had the same two or three drivers on the podium. So yeah, really enjoyed it. I hope you've enjoyed it as well and I'm glad it's gone down to the finale as well between us too. You are definitely the 85% favorite but I wouldn't say three points. There's a lot of predictions. I mean how many points are available like nine I think. I think I've only scored three points and or more three or more points about four weekends this year. But we will be a

sending the way we do predictions next year as well to freshen it up, add some things. We've listened to your feedback as well. Yeah, Grace is just going to do all of mine next year. Yeah, that'd be great. Just the entire podcast, actually. That's fine. You've got to let you win some out, right? Fair enough. I mean, I still probably lose. But there you go. Thank you, everybody. We'll see you soon. Lots of love. Take care. Bye. See you for the watchalongs. Can't wait for it.

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