P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Azerbaijan GP predictions

Episode Date: September 17, 2025

After a week off, F1 heads to Baku: arguably Charles Leclerc's best circuit. Cue some outrageous delusion and equal amounts of pessimism- just not from who you'd expect...The Delusion Tour is just around the corner! We're heading to North America in a few weeks and there are still a few tickets available - click here to grab yours: tix.to/p1liveYou can listen to an extended version of every race review episode over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the B1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. We've returned. I felt like I was about to celebrate the fact we'd been gone for about four weeks. It feels that way with literally just one week off. But it's Baku. It's Azerbaijan. It's fast. It's furious.

It's well done. If you get the, come on, you've got on Baku. How are you feeling, Tommy? Are we going to be well-doneing Baku at the end of Sunday? I hope so because Baku only delivers bangers or something. stinkers and nothing in between. And it was very much weighted towards bangers initially, wasn't it? Yeah.

We had, I think the first one, it was the European Grand Prix, if I'm... Which was terrible. And then they had the two amazing ones and everyone was like, back is the best track ever. Yeah. And then pretty much since then it's not been a good one. Then last year's was really good. So it's very much, as you say, one or the other. Yeah, one of the other.

What isn't one or the other is the fact that it's very close between you and meet on me, 42, 41. It's the most hotly contested championship in Formula One right now. And we're going to get into our predictions very shortly. But before we do, we have a five-star review for the P1 live show to share with you. So if you want to get involved, please do. If you've been to one of our P1 live shows and you had a great time, please let us know by leaving a review.

You can do that on Ticketmaster. And we were doing the delusion tour, aren't we, Tommy? We are. We've done Amsterdam. We had two shows there, which was awesome. And we had a lovely review. from Nell Elizabeth, who gave us a five out of five, come on, and said, been to two P1 live shows in Manchester

and can't wait to come to another. They are hilarious fun and so much more than just a podcast live show. Matt and Tommy also always make sure to make time to meet with everyone afterwards and our lovely human beings. I don't know about Tommy. It's also fine to go alone. Everyone is so friendly and you're guaranteed to make new F1 friends. If you're doubting whether to buy tickets or not, do it.

You won't regret it. Now, this wasn't a burner account. But I thought I'd just share that one because a lot of people don't. think it's real. Yeah, it is too nice. Thank you, Nell Elizabeth, otherwise known as Tom Bellingham. But people don't actually kind of get what a P1 live show is and that why would I come to one? Well, we've had a lot of glowing reviews.

So thank you for that. Right, let's get into our predictions, Azerbaijan. Tommy, it is your turn to go first. It sure is. Good surprise. I am going for Olly Bearman. A bit of a rogue one, something a bit different. a risky one.

He's had a little breakthrough he's had a little breakthrough drive that we said. He's also basically like one incident away from a race band so I hope for his sake I've not cursed him into that. She's actually quite insane

and I don't feel like has been really spoken about much to say that he's of course a rookie so he's got a whole year to wait really well at least till the kind of start of the year I can't remember exactly when he picked up his first one but it's a long time till

they get chalked off, so he needs to be a bit careful. So with all of that, you've said a good surprise, and is that if he doesn't get banned? You're like, well, that's... Maybe that's the loophole. No, no, I think he was good here last year. I remember him. He was the super sub last year, so why not? Okay, but no mistakes for Olly Behrman. I was convinced I was going to have to change my good surprise.

I'm really glad I won't have to. My good surprise. It's Kimmy Antonelli. My guy. My guy. My guy. Come on. Come on. Let's keep the momentum up. Let's keep, let's just, let's just do something good this weekend, Kimmy. Please. And honestly, not crashing the car or beaching it. We can't beach it around Baku. That's, that's a W. That's a point. There's no gravel traps. But there definitely are escape roads you can get stuck down. So I've gone for Kimmy Antonelli. I hope for his say, I genuinely, honestly, as much as I want the point, I also would love the story that comes with this of Kimmy having a really solid.

non-mistake weekend. That would be lovely for everybody watching. And he needs it. He really needs to get some of these, some good results in this second half of the season. Okay, we head to a big flop. Charlotte Clare. Oh, what?

What? I said Charlotte Clare. Oh, okay. I've said it out loud. I wasn't expecting this. I've said it out loud. Then I just remember. that my big flop's doing really well at the moment.

I forgot about that. I'm on a very good streak right now of big flops. Still a crazy sentence to say out loud. I've gone for Charlerclair because if he doesn't get pole, that's a big flop confirmed. Okay, so you've already spoiled pole position. Can I admit something now, which is quite funny?

What's that? And why I'm so shocked by this. I was so convinced you to go, Charlotte, Claire, poll. I already made the thumbnail. I did. I did. Yeah.

I already made it. Okay, so, oh, I'm not being predictable for my predictions. I don't like it. I hate it. So the reason I've gone for a big flop, Charlerclair, is it just can't go as well. I know that hasn't he finished sixth, fifth, fourth, DNF, third, second. That's his Baku results. So it's the DNF time.

So it's either DNF or P1. I just can't see it. Tommy, I can't. Like just Ferrari, they've given me random bits of hope this year, but less so. Like we haven't had that many bits of hope. And, you know, Monza, they were just nowhere in terms of race pace. I know, obviously, he got back towards the sort of the rear end of the McLaren's, but that wasn't even for the win.

And also the McLaren's were doing all kinds of weird confuffling as we all know what happened. But yeah, I just, I can't see them being him even on the podium, to be honest with you. So it's sad. And hopefully, look, I have so much delusion, so much hope, so much optimism. Maybe it's time for me to go into a weekend depressed. And then I can't get any worse than that. Yeah, maybe, maybe. I mean, he is the Baku specialist, particularly in qualifying, isn't he?

I mean, he's so quick around here. Has he been on poll pretty much every year for the last. Yes, he's been on poll the last four Baku Grand Prix. That's crazy, isn't it? But how many is he won? That's what I... Yeah, well, yeah, that's also true. So that's why I'm going with big flop,

is that I need to stop believing in him clearly for maybe things... I will take zero points if he wins the race. 100%. Okay. Right now. What's your big flop, Tommy? My big flop is Oscar Piastri.

It's another... Tommy is trying to cook up a championship fight, my guy. I see it. No, I just... I can't shake this feeling that this weekend there's going to be something controversial and something... Something going on.

You know what happens, Tommy, when we start thinking that things are going to. It's the most boring weekend. I know. But I don't want this to happen, but I just couldn't shake the feeling that, that, yeah, something's potentially going to happen. I don't think this is going to be. I don't think it's going to be. Yeah, yeah.

I don't think it's going to be through his kind of own fault. And, like, poor driving. Of course, he's very, very good here. One last year made that brilliant move to win the race. Can't remember who on. Yeah, who was that? No idea. Don't care.

And yeah, I've just got a feeling. Okay. Tommy's got a feeling. We feel a lot of things and usually they're wrong. Yeah, true. We've got one point last time. Thanks for watching. Right, let's go to a poll position, Tommy.

I'm going for Max Verstappen again. Why not? When you say again, you don't mean your own predictions because you did not back your board last time. No, I didn't. I didn't. But this time, yeah, Maxa Stappen, joint most polls this year. Baku's a very different circuit, of course, to Monza, but I'm feeling that.

I don't, I know I literally said through the whole last podcast that Monza's just, you know, just a one off and all this kind of stuff. Who's the deluded one on this podcast? And I'm not for a second thinking that Max is, you know, charging through to make this amazing championship comeback that some people seem to. think, which I'm like, please, no, no chance. Yeah, but if you get 25 points, Oscar Piastri, big flop comes in. What happens to Lando?

We don't know. There's a 25 point swing in the next few races. It's still not enough. In Max's favour. Yeah, no. We'll speak to future Tommy about that one because right now I can see that I know what a delusional eye looks like. Yeah.

There's a little twinkle. There's a little twinkle. Yeah, yeah. Okay, pole position for me. I don't get Tommy's feeling. I've gone for Oscar Piastri. Okay. I don't have the feeling that Tommy has that something's going to go wrong for Oscar.

I kind of based it a little bit on, of course, last year. It was one of his standout drives. Of course, that was the whole chatter, wasn't it, at the time of the McLaren rear wing and things like that? Wasn't it that there was a video that was shared online and that's how the paddock got to know about how much it was flexing and stuff like that? It was some insane story like that. But anyway, back to this year, I think Oscar will get poll. It'll be close once again. But I'm backing Oscar for that.

Let's head to third in the race. I am locking in Max Verstappen. I'm backing the fact that Max will be competitive this weekend. I don't think he's going to have a Monza. Red Bull Max fans, and that's including you, Tommy. I think Tommy, you are awake to the fact that Max is probably not going to dominate this weekend. But at the same time, I think that he won't just disappear back to what we saw in Hungary or things like that. Baku is still a very fast circuit. There's a lot more

heartbreaking zones into 90 degree corners than there are in Monza, for example. But it's, yeah, I still see that the Red Bull and Max will be relatively good. So that's why I've gone for third. P3, I have gone for Charlotte Clare. I think he's going to get a podium. Now I regret it, yeah, because you've obviously gone big flop. He's going to have a shocker. Will we get another Castle section moment? I don't know. Probably not.

But look, I think he's going to have a good... I think he'll have a good race, but not enough for that victory that still alludes them, of course, because my word, we're getting close to the end of the season without a Ferrari win. I know that you sprinkled that with I biggest flopped them at the same. start of the year. I know. Please happen. Your smug face at the end of the year will be unbearable. Unbelievable.

I know. Yeah, I don't want it. I don't want it. Okay. Second position. Second position I'm going for Lando Norris. Oh. Then if that means you have to change your prediction, we're about to find out.

But yeah, going for Lando, P2. And yeah, I think he's going to have a good weekend. But not the best. best weekend possible. I thought I was home and dry, thought I was going to just get my predictions and I was, oh, I can't believe, because I was thinking, there's no way that you're going to go for Oscar P1, but you're going to back Mac. I have to change my prediction because I was going to go Lando Norris second place.

Okay. So my second position is Charlotte. I knew it. I knew the second, there was a pause long enough to not immediately just go from. Oscar. You were just like, yeah. Look, I could easily just be boring and put Oscar in second and Lando in first. But, you know, you've convinced me, Tommy. You said he was going to have a good race.

And I went, actually, you know what, yes. So now I'm sort of covering my bets here because I don't think Shah will win due to what Ferrari can bring to the table in race trim. But a second place for him isn't insanely ridiculous. But it is kind of a ridiculous. No, it's fine. I've locked it in now. It's done. It's all your fault, Tommy.

That was not going to happen. It was not going to be in my top three. Okay, let's go to P1. I can't block you. I know exactly who you're going to go for, and I can't block you. So in first position, I'm going to go for, this is a difficult point in the season where I'm like, do I think about the points here? Or do you know, I'm thinking about my own predictions here, right, of like, Paul Oscar, but if that's wrong, then maybe I go for first lando.

There's so many games right now. I'm going for Oscar Piastri P1. I'm just going to, I'm just putting all my eggs in Oscar's basket. If your big flop comes in, this is actually interesting, isn't it? You've gone for a third place shawl for my flop, and then I've gone for a poll and win for your flop. Yeah, so one of us is going to have a bad time, basically. Pretty much. I hope it's you.

Well, I hope not. It's actually insane how much I feel like I'm just losing this lead, and I'm going to regret it. immediately because I've not gone for a McLaren. Oh, I think you didn't say I won't have gone for Max. But now I've gone for Max for the win. And I don't know why I think I'll regret it. I just couldn't shake the feeling. I just went with my first vibe.

And traditionally, maybe not been his strongest circuit. He was very anonymous last year, wasn't he actually? And Sergio Perez was actually quicker than him. Last year, he wasn't very, yeah, wasn't great around. But then also he wasn't great at Munza last year. So I'm kind of like, well, maybe then that means that. I don't know. Just crazy logic.

Why not? We'll go for Max and also just go McClaren 1-2 every week's boring, isn't it? It is. So that's why we're mixing it up ever so slightly. Let's go to a one crazy prediction. My crazy prediction is probably a bit too crazy and stupid. But I'm going for no red flags caused by a crash. all weekend.

Okay. So all the practices, no, all the practices qualifying. Interesting. You said caused by a crash. Yeah, yeah. A little escape road dilemma. Oh, I was thinking more like,

I was more covering myself for when like, you know, like a piece of advertising boarding falls off or a truck crashes into a bridge again. What if someone hits into that? What if someone hits into the wall? But it's not the car. Well, then we'll, then we've got to lock in red, red,

flag all weekend. Come on. No, because they do that for all sorts of like timing glitches and things. I crash. We know what a crash is. It's fine. Okay. All right.

I look forward to arguing this on the main race podcast. My one crazy prediction, Stroudat qualifies Alonzo. Here we go again. I haven't done it this year. I did it almost every single week. Oh, you did? Yeah, you did.

Do you remember that was the mean? A whole year, yeah. But then you brought it back and it made me think, I quite like that as a crazy prediction I quite like doing that even though he hasn't done it the whole year. Even if he hasn't done it at all, but maybe Back who's the one? And I would actually enjoy it if it was

because then it was the time that you didn't pick it and then I can say that I actually know. He got his podium here, didn't he? Of course, in the Williams. I'll tell you. He's coming. He's coming. Let's go to our Patreon prediction where if you are part of the P1 Patreon, you can submit a prediction on our Discord, and then we will choose one to be part of our set of predictions.

My one comes in from Emma, double exclamation mark. safety car at least two times. Okay. Carnage. Carnage breeds carnage. You get one safety car. You're getting another safety car.

It's Baku. Give us a headwind into term one. We are cooking. Yeah. And that's quite a good one actually, isn't it? Because Baku is the thing that once you get one safety car, normally it breeds more. Yes, that's the phrase. That is.

I have gone for Pickle-Nicks, which is papaya rules play a part in the weekend. week. Watch like a free practice one team radio of, Landers on a push lap behind you, can you just let through it? Yeah, but look at this, look at this,

I've got the receipts. No, I just feel like something will come up during race strategy again or there'll be something. You've got some feelings for this weekend. I have got some feelings. You really do, my goodness.

One week away from F1 and I'm like, it's going to be chaos. Max is winning, Papaya rules, Ollie Bearman, finishing second. No. If that happens,

by the way, another papyrals instant. You get ready for a riled up Tommy on the main race podcast again. And we all love to see that. Okay, let's head to a family top three where I am really hoping that I know that I'm fielding Ellie again. But I literally live with her. And I forgot to ask anyone else.

My dad's definitely going to be asleep. And my mum, I need points. And my mum's going to drop, like, flipping Logan Sargent in there somehow. So right, let's see. Well, she's literally downstairs.

So fingers crossed. Hello, my darling. Welcome to Who Wants to be a P1 neonaire. What can I win? Absolutely nothing, my love. So right, well, to be fair, we have to win first. We're 8.7. I didn't even say the scores.

It's 8.7 to the boring Bellingham's. It's very close now. And I'm fielding you back in, okay? Mainly because I know my dad's probably asleep. So who have you gone for P3? Talk to me. Oh, it's so tricky because I'm tossing up between. too. But also, before you say that, like, you've scored a point in every single time I fielded you.

Oh, God, that is huge. Get me three now. Come on. I'm going to go with my original thought, which was La Claire. Okay, so you've gone for, Tommy went for P3, Charlotte LeClau as well. So I'm now conflicted. This is the constructors championship. We don't care about family top three if that comes in. In P2. In P2, I'm going to put Max. Okay. Okay, all right. None of us have gone for a McLaren 1-2 in Bakke. We've seen one race in Monza and we've gone. McLaren don't know exactly. P-1.

But P-1, I have gone for Oscar Piastro. Oh, you're back. Yeah, same as me. Same as me. I like to say that. Okay, perfect. Thank you so much for being a part of this team and always scoring points. I hope this won't be the end of that. See you downstairs shortly. I love you. Bye. I love you, bye. I... This is a bad thing to say. I don't mean no ill will on Oscar Piastri,

but I take it back what I said about. I don't want it to happen a big flop, because now you and Delhi have gone for it. I'm going to lose the lead here. I'm like, please no. For a DNF. Okay, Tommy. Who are you fielding?

I am going to give my mother a call. Oh, your mum's great content. Let's see. Let's see where she put Charlotte Claire this week. She loves a Charlotte Claire. and a rogue Kimi Antonelli as well. Oh yeah. Oh yeah, and I've went for a good surprise Kimi Antonelli.

We'll find out. Hi, ma'am. Didn't even ring. How's it going? I'm good. How's the cross stitch going? Oh, they're still doing lots of orange. Oh, I know.

So hopefully a different winner for you then. Let's get P3. Okay. P3, Lewis. Okay. Okay. Remember it's, remember they're catching up. They're catching up.

Yeah, don't worry. P2. Lando. Okay, a P1. Oscar. Okay, we've locked in a McLaren one day. Good. Boring, Bellingham's back at it once again.

Appreciate it, ma'am. Thank you. Can you please ask her about where Charlotte Claire is? Matt's saying, where's Charlotte Claire? I know. Well, I'm just thinking. In the castle section. If I say Lewis, it will be Charles, weren't it?

Hopefully. Much is hopefully. Well, spoiler alert, Matt's gone for a big flop, Charlotte Claire. Oh, has he? Yeah, so there we go. Right.

Thanks, ma'am. Fingers crossed. We need to get back dominating again. Hello, Dad. Bye, bye, bye. Don't hang up. Just as it's getting good. The dad's just come on the phone as well.

Back to call you some random name once again. He did. He said hi, Balug in the background. Oh, Baloo. He's heard of it before though. He needs to come up with a new one. Yeah, he does. A new one each week.

There we go. There's always, I feel like, yeah. And I laughed at that. The only reason I laughed that is because Hampton literally hasn't had a podium this year. And I genuinely thought that your mom was going to go off, you know, on some crazy, or sort of, I was going to say Charlotte Claire P2. That's exactly what I put in my prediction. I'm selling up my own parents now, but I'm going, I feel like they've got a tactic of like going for a boring McLaren one two, but then they throw a random rogue third into it. Because a two-pointer is, is very nice.

Two points is great. They sort of go against the boring Bellingham's tagline by pushing that people. It's also risky. Yeah, it's difficult because, I mean, the way this season's gone with predictions, I know we always banter that it's kind of, oh, we've not scored many points, but you get the McLaren's in the wrong order, and people keep saying, oh, you should get a point for when, the amount of times we've got the podium, like, just in the wrong order.

Yeah, during our P1 live show, the amount of people that have been like, we even discussed it as a controversial opinion, I think, at one point. It was like, oh, we should, you should get points for, or your family should get points for just getting anywhere in the top three. No, no, no, no. This is, this is where the drama's at. Yeah. So yeah. It's all or nothing.

Exactly. It is all or nothing. And that is it. We are locked in, dialed in, ready for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend. We'll be live on YouTube and Twitch. Reminder as well, Australian Delusion Tour tickets are available and selling fast. We've added some dates if you want to come and see us. in May next year.

But you guys have been incredibly supportive. There's also some other tickets available in the US, in Canada, as well as, I think, Ireland have a few. And I know Manchester, Ireland maybe is down, actually. I think Ireland might be done. But Manchester, there are a few tickets available still. So, Tommy, what are your final thoughts? Final thoughts?

I'll get your tickets and also, based on my crazy prediction, can't wait for someone to go straight out the pit lane and hit the wall at like turn three on their out lap. Just a minor little sort of like, A little front edge of a front wing, red flag out. I'm then message you saying, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. And you are in the mud. Perfect.

Can't wait for you to be in the mud with an Oscar Piaastri, Grand Shalom. And we will see you very soon, as I say, live on Twitch and YouTube. We'll see you then. And yeah, can't wait for it. Take care. Lots of love. Bye. B1 is a Stack production and part of the Acast Creator Network.