P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Belgian GP Predictions

Episode Date: July 22, 2025

We're back and heading into the mighty Ardennes forest for the Belgian Grand Prix.Will Spa’s legendary unpredictability shake up the grid? Is this finally the weekend Ferrari stops tripping over itself? Will Max dominate again or can someone (anyone?) put up a fight?You can listen to an extended version of every Race Review podcast over on our Patreon! Sign up to also get every P1 episode ad-free, early access to live tickets and merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now! Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. We are, we're here. We've returned. It's felt like 900 years. Summer break. It's the last time we did a podcast, Tommy. And it hasn't even been the summer break. We've got a couple of races to enjoy.

And then we head into the summer break. That was like a mini summer break. You went on holiday. So how are you feeling coming into the Belgian Grand Prix, which is absolutely owing us a banger at this stage. It sure is. Yeah, it is weird, isn't it? The summer break is only a week longer than what we just had, which is a wild thing to think about.

But of course, a sprint weekend. I kind of forgot what sprint weekends were because we're in that stage of the season. We've mentioned this before, haven't we, that what on earth is going on with the sprint allocations this year and the spacing between them? Because it feels almost like Formula 2, a few years ago when you had no momentum going with the kind of championship that sprint,

I was kind of like, oh yeah, it's a sprint. Whereas it just feels weird that we've not had one in months. Yeah, exactly. And for it to be around SPAR as well, let's see how this one unfolds. The weather, hmm, the weather's looking very tasty. So will that affect more competitive sessions? Well, it gives us more of a likelihood that it will. So before we dive into all predictions, P-1 on Patrons,

if you're out there, the Olly Beerman full video is now live. So if you want to see full unedited F1 driver interviews, as well as lots more perks, head to patreon.com for slash Matt P1 Tommy. And yeah, you can enjoy Olly Beerman saying that a grizzly bear isn't that big. Full and cut of him dropping his water bottle. Yes, beautiful stuff. Right, let's get into the predictions. And as Tommy said, it is a sprint weekend,

which means more points up for grabs for both the drivers and also myself and Tommy. It is 31, 29. to Thomas Bellingham and quick shout out to the person that I saw in Bista Village a few days ago who didn't really come up to me or anything, walked past, noticed my face and went, oh, Tommy! And I went, oh, good. That's great because I was away at Centre Park this weekend and got called Matt, so there we go. So just to clarify, red Ferrari Matt, Tommy Red Bull slash football shirts, Tommy.

Fred Bull. That's how you remember it. Or Fred. Fred. Anything but Matt. That's me. Okay. I'm losing my identity in this podcast.

Okie dokey. It's time as per the P1 podcast regulations for the predictions. It's Tommy's time to go first for good surprise. Oh, okay. So good surprise I've gone for Pierre Gasly. No influence by my daughter, Grace, who is a big Pierre Gasly fan. You've been a holiday with Grace and all of a sudden you're a Pierre Gasly Stan. I just feel like he's going to have a good weekend.

I think Alpine will be decent round here. I did make this prediction before I saw the weather and how crazy it was, but I stuck with it because I'd kick myself if I changed it, which is always the way. He is a good wet weather driver. He is a good wet weather driver anyway, of course. But I feel like this is maybe more suited to the Alpine, which has been slightly rubbish this year. It has to be said. So you think Alpine are going to be good, but don't lock in a team.

My good surprise is a team. And I don't ever do teams. So not sure how this one's going to unfold for me. But I've gone for Williams. Yeah. You know, look, I'm still very much locking in that they've been on a poor run of form in the grand scheme of things. and if they both secure a lovely double points finish in what is quite clearly going to be a wet slash dry

slash wet slash dry slash wet slash dry Belgian Grand Prix sprint weekend yeah they've got straights they've got corners that's a bit of James Fowles. Daddy Vowles is now legit he's now a daddy so big congrats to him and look he's going to bring that new fatherhood energy to a good surprise for me and score points

so thank you very much James Vals we now head to a big flop who is flopping this week I have gone for and this will not go down well with many people Nico Holcombberg I literally knew you were going to do that

no podium that would be a points for me thank you very much back to back podium is the only way I don't score points here no I'm kidding I would have bet my house on you going for Nico Holcombberg

like genuinely yeah well look you would have got a house plus one pound back so yeah I've gone for Nico Holcombe just purely because it's gone far too well for him recently. You know, he's been scoring absolute bang of results,

not just with the podium, but just like he's been scoring a phenomenal amount of points in that salver. And he's, he's, look, it's just vibes. We know this, right? I'm not saying that Nico Hockerberg is a bad driver. I'm purely saying that there is a bad weekend coming and I can feel it in my bones that it might well be this weekend. Interesting, because big flop I've gone for a team and that team is Salba.

That's one way to get around the regulations, isn't it? It is. still kind of get in with my team and my driver without changing. Yeah, it's not, this isn't even the fact that, you know, if Nico Hulkenberg finished fourth, it's like, oh, he's flopped, he's worse than last time. I'll be arguing it. Yeah, I know you will.

But, yeah, they've had an amazing run of form. They've looked a lot more competitive. I just think in a crazy weekend, there's definitely, when I was deciding, who I'd go for for big flop it really does feel like one team could have an absolute nightmare here, doesn't it? In these crazy wet races, you know,

arguably last time you had kind of V-carb having a nightmare and stuff and a Mercedes last time out as well. There's very much on to have a team having a shocker. So I've gone for Salba. So we have both gone for a team at some point but mine was a positive, yours was a negative. Sprint pole, Tommy. Sprint pole?

sprint pole I've gone for Max Verstappen Now yes Obviously if it If it rains he's very good Even in the dry He loves spa

He's always very quick around here It feels like Many of the last races Has been Max de Stappen Getting pole position And having an engine penalty The last few years Just feels like that always seems to happen at spa

We don't know yet that last year. I love that as well. He certainly did. I must have been the only man to celebrate as hard as I did for a seven-tenths off pole, but that an inherited P-1. An inherited P-1, yeah. You'd take it now, wouldn't you? But Max,

so good around spa, and of course is very good at qualifying this year, very surprisingly so. Okay, dokey. My sprint pole is Lando Norris. Look, I'm I've got momentum now with my Lando

predictions. I'm feeling good about them. And I'm not just purely going for this because of McLaren being quick, just generally, because they are. It's a safe bet. But also, you know, I've looked at the weather. Friday looks like it could be a little bit wet. Saturday looks clearer. And then Sunday, again, chances of rain. But with spa, you know, it can change in a flash. But what I've done there is that, you know, Lando has been very quick, even prior to McLaren being the fastest team around here. Of course, he had that big crash. But before that, in those really heavy rain conditions, he was phenomenal. Very good.

So I think it's a pretty good bet to go for Landonora's Sprint Pole in a changeable condition sessions. That's why I've gone for for Sprint Poll. Before you move on, actually, they just reminded me of something. You remember your Lando curse, and obviously we shouted out a few people that sent predictions sheet. Someone called Charlotte sent us this absolutely amazing prediction sheet after that. with loads of loads of data in it really really interesting and she's going to update it for us and we're going to look at it at the end of the season but one thing i spotted that she did was when you are on this crazy streak of cursing lando which of course has long changed uh lando's average finishing position when you predicted him to win was sixth which was uh which is quite bad isn't it in a very good car of course now yeah but now is is flying and the the curse is well and truly broken

can say what curse the big flop curse is now back and the lando curse has left so that's that's how it's working and I'd rather it be that way to be honest with you sprint winner speaking of Lando Norris that's who I've gone for I just feel as though it's going to be what like a four-lap sprint with being spa so look Lando just needs to terrible idea to do the spring of spa it just yeah but this is what we're going to do. And I just feel as though, as much as we talk about, oh, pole being, is that really where you want to be at the start of a Grand Prix round spa? Yes. Yeah, you still kind of want to be on pole. In the wet it will be. Yeah, exactly. You'll get a good slipstream. But yeah, if it's in the wet, you're going through Orooge and that radion, you're not going to be

trying to get a huge slipstream, unless you Max Verstappen, who will just risk it all probably to try and take the lead. But I've gone for a sprint winner, Lando Norris. Sprint winner, I have gone for Oscar Piestri. Oh, so boy, this palber doesn't win. Indeed, which has been a bit of a trend this year, it feels like. But yeah, I've gone for Oscar Piaastri. Even though tricky conditions, I think he showed that he could grab that, that victory in the way, obviously didn't go to plan with the big error he made.

But, of course, I think it was two years ago. We had the sprint here, and that kind of felt like Oscars coming-of-age race. where he brilliantly led the race at one point. So yeah, I think Oscar is going to continue his good form. Okay, dokey. We now head to pole position. So on the Saturday, a little bit drier, potentially. Tommy, who have you gone for?

I've gone for Max Verstappen again. What? I know. Never knew that. I was tempted to do sprint pole one of the McLaren's and then pole position max, he does tend to have a bit of a nightmare on Friday and then just rocks up on Saturday and it's like ha ha ha I fixed all the problems and now we're really quick um but yeah uh same as what I said really

from from sprint pole the Stappen around spa it's very much his circuit it's amazing to think that that he has the joint most polls this season when you look at the championship gap that that McLaren have um and qualifying seems to be where max can excel so yeah gone for max okay dokey i can confirm i did not go for the same prediction and therefore don't need to change my poll position charlerclair right genuinely my i nearly was going to do as a joke my one crazy prediction would be matt picked charlerclair for poll but it doesn't come early enough doesn't come early enough in the predictions um now that you might be thinking deluded wow Matt, you've had a few weeks off.

Now you're back to delusion. Inherited. I don't care how he gets it, mate. But the thing is, it's called pole position. Let's not get into that debate. So the reason I've gone for this is not purely delirium, but Ferrari are bringing a whopping upgrade to this race. I don't know why they're still upgrading.

Everyone else has given up and gone home. Ferrari are like, nope, keep building. Keep upgrading. And yeah, they've said there, is some logic here in the sense of, okay, I believe, and this is dangerous, that Ferrari will improve with this upgrade, and it's potentially dry on the Saturday, Charle-Claire Masterclass. You know, I've been asking for this for quite some time. It looked like it could have happened at the British Grand Prix, but it didn't. So why not? Another upgrade, another step

forward, Ferrari fastest in the dry, thoughts? I genuinely don't think this is a million miles away. as well. I think Charles Yeah, we'll find out. But, yeah, Charlotte is good around here. He's surprised before, hasn't he, in qualifying where he's hooked a great

lap up. Of course, he had last year where he inherited pole position, but also 2023 he was second as well. So, yeah, he does go well around here, particularly in qualifying.

And if there's anywhere, he's going to do it, you could see it. being spa where he got his first win, I believe. Yes. He did, didn't he? Yeah, 2019. Yeah, because that was obviously a devastating weekend. He couldn't really celebrate it.

But yes, it certainly was. Right, let's head to the race, the top three. Now, before we dive into this, I want to talk about something very quickly, which is very interesting, but sadly, I don't know if we're even going to see it, is that Pirelli, for the first time ever, have brought a step different. in the tyres. So they've gone for the C1, C3 and C4. But it's going to rain, so we're not going to see it.

And therefore, we don't know it's going to rain. But I'm a little bit gutted that they've decided to choose the Belgian Grand Prix for a difference in dry tyres when the Belgian Grand Prix is the most likely one of probably the lot to have some kind of weather-affected session. So it's going to rain and they'll go, oh, look, we tried it, didn't work. There was no overtaking. Everyone one stopped on the inters. Yeah, it didn't work.

I really hope that that continues because I completely agree with you that for me that is the answer to, particularly in this dirty air formula now that we have with these cars, you need such a big difference in performance to be able to make overtakes and have racing. So you need that difference between the tyres. And if people are starting on different tyres, that's when you can. risk it and think, well, you know, I'll go for a really soft tire and try and fly through the field because I'll have a massive advantage and then go off strategy and try something different. Please, Pirelli, do that again, or let's have a dry race.

Yes, one or the other. Yeah, I completely agree that eking out a one-stop strategy on a hard tire should have its drawbacks, not to be two to three-tenths slower than a medium that lasts 20 less laps. It's having this bigger discrepancy is exactly what we've been saying for quite some time. So big up to Pirelli for listening to the P1 podcast. That's what I'm going to say. Right. Third position in the race, I am locking in Charlotte.

So he's not going to win. Let's be real. I don't think the Ferrari will have the race pace. But a nice little Charlotte Clare podium. I'll take it. And that is a sad reality of where I am. We've got the same delusion here because P3, I've gone for Max for Stappen. So, yeah, pole position.

we've both gone for our pole position in P3 who could be second and first so Tommy being second is quite the advantage actually here because he can lock in I'm assuming one of two driver's yeah a driver once or equally you could yeah or do I'm tactical

no I'm going to just look in I am going to lock in okay Tommy what's your second place Lando Norris I have gone for Lando Matt may have to change now. Okay, interesting. Yeah, I feel like Lando, Lando's form has been a lot better. Of course, he bounced back after Canada and the British Grand Prix. While he had a bit of good fortune, still drove a great race to take the victory. And he does look like he's got some momentum behind him,

but I just feel like Oscar, oh, sorry, spoiler a lot, I just feel like Lando might finish B2 this weekend. Yeah, you saved that one, Tommy. Unless my case, a curveball and I have to pick Borselletto winning because he's blocked me or some with the regs. Oh, that's true, actually, yeah. Ooh, hold on a second. I know you weren't going to use tactics. I certainly will. Hold on.

All right, so hold on. Let me cook. Hold on. What am I doing here? In, hmm. Oh, but that's going to be painful, isn't it? It's to you sacrifice your own race. You kind of like, you're kind of like.

Yeah. you're taking someone out the race but yourself as well basically yeah I am I am all right okay in second place I am locking in Max Verstappen Max Verstappen's in second okay Max Verstappen is finishing second

did I think that coming into about five seconds ago no I was going to go for a Lando second Oscar first however putting Max second at a rainy spa how is that seen as an outside shot? Like there is every realm where Max Verstappen can get on the podium, especially in P2, if not win the race. And maybe I've actually underestimated him

because there are times where Red Bull have been very quick and have worked. Yes, we're looking at Silverstone where it was rainy and he was terrible, but they went for a dry, risky setup and it didn't work out. They are still quick in the hands of Max Verstappen. So I'm trying to gee myself up here with this prediction. So second place, Max Verstapp and lock it in. In first position. I have gone for Oscar Piastri.

Now, did I think Oscar was going to finish second until about 30 seconds ago? No, no, no, no, no, actually, no, no, actually no, no, actually no, that's a lie. I was going to put Oscar first. I'm talking rubbish. Second, I was going to put Lando. I've changed it to Max so I can then put Oscar as my first position and screw over Tommy, because that is the beautiful, that, that, I don't even care if this is wrong. I am enjoying this moment where I have...

It's similar, right, to how Katie last time completely blocked the family prediction with the top three, which was ridiculous. I'm only blocking one. So there you go. And Oscar Piastri could absolutely win the Belgian Grand Prix, and that's what I thought coming into this anyway. So I'm happy with locking that in.

It's more the fact will Max finish 12th or second. Okay, there you go, Tommy. What are you going to do? Well, I'm going to have to change my prediction, because no surprise it was Oscar Piastri. interesting tactics there I feel like the only driver I could go for here is George Russell to win the race

the redemption story Not sure No Sorry The redemption story for George Russell after the disqualification Even though he drove that brilliant race I absolutely love how we've not spoken about Mercedes being good once and you've just gone

George winning well yeah why not I wasn't going to go for anyone else I'm afraid I wasn't going to George on the podium

now he's winning so yeah I'll go for George Russell for the win why not it could be very interesting as well the rumours

seem to have died down after the the Max Verstappan Airways flight radar de Basco if him you know we've not heard anything as of yet

maybe we'll jump on an emergency podcast if we do here. I think there's another interesting side to that story of if we still don't know and something has been locked in that, you know, what if George Russell or something does win? That would look really embarrassing for Mercedes, wouldn't it? If they then have to get rid of him or something else changes or something. So, yeah, we'll go for George first.

I think it'd be embarrassing anyway. Yeah, true. Yeah, it's still really awkward, isn't it? He's proved himself already. Yeah, absolutely. Okay, one crazy prediction. Tommy, you'd go first, so, you know, maybe think about what I'm going to say, and then, you know, you can kind of block it. Now, I'm going to lock mine in still, and it is. Franco Colapinto gets his first points of the season.

That's crazy. It is very crazy. That's actually mental, because I, when I was writing this, that was one of two that I was deciding to choose from. So you could have genuinely blocked me from Sunday. It's not even like, there's not even a rule to say that, yeah, the crazy prediction needs to change. Yeah, because I was sat there going. Collarpo. Oh, that's a good net. And I was just thinking about all this sort of stuff.

Nice. Yeah. And, but it wasn't what I had to go for. So I don't need to change it. But mine is equally a driver not doing particularly well and backing them to do something that might well not happen. Sonoda makes Q3. Okay. Nice. Yeah. He's not done it since Saudi, I believe. And do I genuinely, in my heart of hearts, believe this is going to happen? No, but that's why it's called crazy prediction. He's not done it since Saudi, which was in a V-carb as well. Yes. I just wanted to put the positive vibes out there,

and you just decided to rip that straight out. Fair enough. So, yes, the Noda has not made you three since being in the Red Bull. And I, you know, a little crazy one. Will he actually start 20th? It's so annoying, isn't it? Because we said this last time at Silverstone that dry, normal race, really struggled. was kind of nowhere and he thought well at least throw a curveball and it's crazy race niko hulkeberg's on

the podium loads of people are crashing left right and centre and he still was last on the road so not going well for poor yuki yeah i want to change everything but i'm not going to there you go i've locked it in let's go to our patreon so if you're part of the p1 patreon you can submit a prediction for us each week and then we choose one to be part of our points tally across the season i have gone for you will not have the drink who have said both ferrari's finish in the top five for both sprint and the main race okay yeah we're cooking so that that is it's a sprinkling of delusion just a sprinkling but it's top five it's very possible but it's still like bold enough it require clean races from both of them yeah yeah so common hamilton don't let me down please

so my patron prediction is from z Zingy and initially this didn't reflect my actual prediction, but it does now. Zingy cooked for me last time, by the way. So I'm hoping. Zingy going to cook three different constructors on the podium. Okay. I could see it. All right.

Basically hoping for one of the McLaren's to slip up basically. Yeah. Yeah, could see that with maybe a McLaren, whether obviously the Max, George, maybe a Ferrari. Who knows? I'll be buzzing if I get my top three right, but then that will also mean that you get your Patreon prediction right. So once again, Tommy covering bases where he possibly can, the scumbag that he is. So there you go. Right.

We have locked those in, which means we are now heading to the family top three. It is currently seven, four to the boring belligans. And hopefully this week there will be no blocking. So Tommy, are you going to ring first or am I going to run first? My dad's here, so let's... Just do it. I don't mind. It's probably the worst answer you could have given.

That's like me asking my girlfriend, where do you want to eat for dinner? Hopefully answers. Sorry, Ellie. That was a, that was a strange. Hello, you're right. Ballo. Oh my God, the dog just couldn't believe you were called Balug. What is Balug?

Chaos about it. Chaos. Frank. Frank, shut up. We're talking. As if the moment another name has been dropped on the podcast, Frank. Can we have a P3 please for the Belgian Grand Prix? No, no, no, go. Before we do that, what I believe? Yes, you can. If Frank will let me.

Go on. Right, okay. Me and your mum have agreed. So we're going Antonelli third. Oh, okay. Antonelli third. Wow. Belliams really don't want a school. We love that. And second, Max. okay and sorry apologies to Matt

for me Mr. predictable but Oscar for the win okay no I think I appreciate the apology

but the other two were good yeah you've gone rogue with not a McLaren one two so we'll take it no

we didn't want to I'll tell him he's boring what well I haven't I went for Oscar Max all right speak to soon bye Cyril

bye sorry what is his belug. I just called him Cyril as well, which is not his name. It's just random name. Yeah, it's basically just call people, anyone, not their name. But themselves. Okay. Well, um, do you want to give your dad a call? So my first and second is the same as your dad's first and second. Yes. So you, yeah, so if you get it right, you're also helping. So I'm not boring. I'm the same as you. So right, let's go to my dad. Please, please don't choose the same things. Don't go for Antsnelli third. You can't be doing

No, Ginny does. Hello. Hi, Dad. Welcome to the P1 podcast. How are you? Hello, everybody, first of all. Oh, my God, look at that. PR trained.

Absolutely love that. Right, Dad, talk to me. Third place, please. I'm going to go for George Russell. Oh, okay. The other Mercedes. Okay, all right. Cool, cool, cool.

Third place. And second? Cedar Oscar. Lando. Mando's on a bit of a street because he won the British Grand Prix. I want to go for Oscar second. Oscar second. I'm really glad that you've kept the suspense of who you've gone for as first position. I'm going to go for Lewis Hempton.

I'm joking. Oh my God. No, you've got to lock in the first answer, I'm afraid. No, Tommy, she said you have to lock in the first answer, I'm afraid, which is a new rule, which is rubbish. Don't tell me to go and strum his guitar. I wondered where you go with that. No, I'm going to keep it clear. Okay, right.

Brilliant. Thanks, then. Okay, thank you so much. Love you, bye. Did he even say Oscar Piastri? No, didn't, but we assumed it was. No, he said Lando first. Oh, sorry, yeah, he did. Sorry, yeah. No, as in he didn't even say Lando first, I don't think. He did, he did. I mean, I just had to stop him when he said, tell Tommy to go to Stromiz, and then I was like, okay, all right, bad, please. Okay, good. Boring Gallagher. My dad's predictions. No, well, I don't care how boring we are. You'll have to think of an alliteration for the G of Gallagher and come up with that when we start winning, which will be, I don't know, maybe...

One day. Is there any of the same? So you, Oscar, no, no, no, I think it's a different different. Perfect. All right, thank God for that. Otherwise, everyone was going to just stop watching because the family top three was just the same thing every single week. There you go.

Right. How we feel about that, Tommy? There's Frank. I know, absolutely. Now he's just like, soft as anything. Oh, Daddy. Oh, thank you so much for giving me a stroke. Yeah, even though he's just caused absolute chaos.

That was good, yeah. I'm looking forward to the sprint weekend. end more racing, more competitive sessions of chaos. So a bit of weather in the mix feels like it's been a long time since MF1 as well. So excited for this weekend, for sure. And we've also got all the questions that are going to be thrown to a certain Max Rastapen and George Russell in the media. I'm sure Max is really looking forward to Media Day.

I bet that'll be his favourite day of the weekend. I'm sure he's going to have a mysterious illness or something. Honest, yeah. Actually, another baby's being born. Sorry, I've got to go. And he'll just not be there. All right. Thank you, everybody.

We'll see you soon for this weekend's coverage. Of course, we'll be live on Twitch and YouTube on Saturday and Sunday. And also Friday. Of course, it's a sprint weekend. So Friday, Saturday, Sunday. We're live for every competitive sessions. Come and join us there. And until then, thank you, everybody.

Goodbye to Frank. Goodbye to you. Goodbye to Tommy. And we will see you very soon. Tommy, what was your final thoughts? I'm waving. And I'd even ask for your final thoughts. are Frank predictions next week

Frank predictions next week Okay well wait for me to move into my new house Then it's dog predictions Unless it's 10-4 to the Bellingham's and then Yeah then you just don't get a prediction that week Imagine Frank scores you three out of three for one week That would be incredible Right

Bye Look at his face Absolutely loving life flannel. He's a flannel. Right, chore. Chore is to, well, I saw a comment actually on one of the

Spotify things saying they didn't tell me to take my bins out so I haven't done it. So go take your bins out. Go take your bins out. It's starting to smell. So, you know, don't leave those grey bins or whatever colour they are where you live to fill up.

Oh my God, Frank's face right now with that stroke on this top of his head is crazy. It's making me jealous, actually. Can I come around? Fairshop of you there, right? P1 is a stack production and part of the Acast's creative network.