P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Brazil GP predictions

Episode Date: November 4, 2025

We're back! And BOY do we have an exciting weekend of F1 to look forward to – at least if the Brazilian weather/our mad delusion/Grace Bellingham's predictions are anything to go by...We're currently in North America on the Delusion Tour! Some shows have sold out but there are still a few tickets available for shows over the next two weeks - click here to grab yours: tix.to/p1liveYou can listen to an extended version of every Race Review episode over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Hello everybody and welcome back to the B1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Predictions for the Brazilian Grand Prix, otherwise known as the lottery. More so than most other weeks, to be honest with you, where we Just try and make it up on the spot. But this one, Brazil, how can you not be excited for it, Tommy? We are pre-recording this because we're going to be out in North America doing our lovely P1 Live delusion tour, which, to be fair, it is your literal last chance now, because when this goes out, we may have you already done a show or two.

So it's ticks, tix.t.0 forward slash P1 Live. And get some tickets if the show hasn't already happened. But we're going to be there, which means we are predicting a little bit earlier in the week. Well, to be fair, it's literally the week before. It's nine days away, in fact, to be completely precise from the Brazilian Grand Prix main race. Is it enough to know the weather? That's the real. I've already looked at it, man. Oh, gone. Go on hit me.

Yeah, I've already looked at it. It's looking wet. It's looking really, really moist. Why did I say that? Why did I say moist? I've ruined the whole podcast episode. It is looking like it may well be wet, Tommy, which. hubber, hubber, don't you be changing your predictions now? I should have told you at the end of the episode.

But it's not an absolute guarantee. We are many days away from the actual race starting and it's not like 100% guaranteed. I think it was like 50% on the Friday, 60% Saturday and then maybe a slight lower chance for Sunday as of recording. So how are you feeling, Tommy? I've spoken a lot in this intro. I'm hyped.

I love this race. It's a sprint weekend as well, of course. They got rid of it last next year. which is shameful, has to be said. Always should be a sprint. And yeah, lots of hype going into it because it always seems to deliver. And every time we go,

maybe this year it won't deliver, it tends to still deliver. So Brazil is like an anti-jinks. So let's see if maybe this year is a stinker. Fingers crossed, not. Hopefully it's the absolute bangal weekend of the season. It is currently 48, 48 in the predictions championship. It is going down to.

to the wire. I can't believe it. It's closer than the real-life driver's championship by one point, which, I mean, again, we will take that, won't we? Yeah, definitely. Tommy, it is your turn to go first.

Good luck. Indeed. So good surprise. I have gone for Brazilian national Lewis Hamilton. Oh, for God. No, we haven't predicted the same again. We did that last week.

That's wild. I mean, my reaction would. Okay. So, yeah, good surprise. Gone for Lewis Hamilton. I think, look, he's got to get that podium at some point. You sound like me for Ferrari and winning it every year. But genuinely, genuinely, the last race, you know, qualified well looked, obviously, you know, we were not going to talk again about the incident that happened. But it was looking good for him until it went wrong. So he's shown improvement, and I do feel like it's going to happen, and what a place for it to happen if it did. Hamilton does normally bring his A game for his home fans, so I'm going for Lewis Hamilton.

All right, this is how we're playing it, is it? Okay, so to clarify if my expression and reaction wasn't enough, I also was going to go for Lewis Hamilton, good surprise. So why don't I whip out ye old faithful George Russell as my good surprise? To be honest, I had actually put George initially when I was thinking of my predictions and I went, surely Hamilton is the easiest good surprise lock in here if he has a good weekend. Sadly, Tommy has taken that away from me. So George Russell, it is, because look, George has won round here before. Merck are sometimes incredibly good this season and I feel like I don't predict them

anywhere near enough in my predictions because I always think of Red Bull and McLaren and sometimes the occasional Ferrari Hopium. So I'm not even upset about putting George Russell as my good surprise. So that is locked in. We now head to a big flop. I reckon we might be two from two here of things we've gone for if we're thinking of loopholes right now. I have gone for Olly Behrman as my big flop because not only course he nearly got a podium.

No, no, it's classic, but there's more to it. All right, there's more layers. This is like a lasagna. Not that I know how to make a lasagna, but I know there's layers. Ollie Bearman had probably the worst weekend of his racing career last time out in Brazil, where he was just hardly ever facing in the right direction and really struggled. And if it is a wet weekend again, I'm not saying he's going to have the same weekend, but anything lower than fifth, and that's a point.

But no, I just see that Hass won't be as strong. And that's why I've gone for Ollie Berman. In fact, that's why I went for last time out, and it did not pay off. So I've gone back to back Ollie Berman flops. You have, yeah. But this is what happens. If Ollie's going to drop a P4, I'm going to have to double down here. So that's what I've gone for.

So big flop, I have gone for. No, you've got a smirk on your face. No, it's not a happy one. It's Max Verstappen. Max Verstappen, the pessimistic Tommy is out in full force. But there is logic behind it. And that logic is, it's going to rain at Brazil. And last year he was terrible.

No, my logic here is Maxisappen. We're getting to that part of the season. We already saw it somewhat in Mexico where he has to throw everything on the line and more. Take maximum risk in every single situation. We already saw that in Mexico. It's going to ramp up even more in Brazil that he is just going to, he can't afford to play it safe. every dive bomb that's possible is going for it every you know bending of the rules every corner cut everything possible and i feel like you know if in a sprint weekend if he if he goes absolutely

ham it could be you know potentially game over so i hope i'm wrong of course i do um but i'm going for max absolutely fascinating could not more strongly disagree with every pessimistic thought you've had about Max was happening there. I will say before we go into sprint poll, etc, etc., I firmly believe, you know,

Tommy, you've said it many times in the podcast in the last few weekends of, well, you know, let's just see what happens in,

let's just see what happens in qualify. Brazil is categorically yes or no of that's being in this title. I agree. A hundred percent because there is, it's a sprint weekend.

We saw how many points he took out of Oscar Piastri and Austin. If he does the same here this weekend, my goodness gracious me is championship on but alternatively if he has a a fourth and a sixth

in the two competitive sessions competitive races it's over yeah it's over it's done so this is what will make Brazil even more interesting than it already is

and I yeah I firmly believe in the absolute opposite direction as we're about to find out sprint poll Tom Bellingham please sprint poll I'm going for

Charlotte Claire So may we just revert to the start of the podcast where I said Friday has the highest likelihood of rain and you went Ferrari are pretty good in those conditions? Yeah, it'll be dry, it'd be dry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I go for Charlotte Clare. Straight out the blocks, why not?

I feel like he'll have a strong weekend. And you can tell that I'm spreading the eggs because I went for Louis Hamilton Good Surprise. You really are. I'm not spreading them too far because if Ferrari are rubbish, then you've basically put two predictions directly in the bin.

Well, I have gone for Max Verstappen as my sprint pole. genuinely, on paper, as we look at it right now, could there be a more dreamy setup for a Max Verstappen domination? We're going to Brazil where he did the greatest drive

of all time last year. So it's Brazil, of course, this weekend. It's looking like, fingers crossed. It'll be wet. and it's a sprint weekend that Max is full well known to be phenomenal. He's won 12 sprints or something? 13 now. I can't remember exactly the stats or 13 now. And the most anyone's ever won is two apart from me.

Exactly. So the records are suggesting one way. And I am seeing the headlines already now that people may think the Tom Belliams throwing the predictions championship backing Ferrari at this stage of the season. But I will take it. Gallagher comes down the inside. and takes the lead. That's what I'm seeing. I'll take it for a max domination. Yeah, to be fair.

You really would. So yeah, my sprint poll is Max Verstappen. We now head to the sprint winner. And my sprint winner, don't you dare. It's my go. Yeah, yeah, nice try. Nice try. Try a little move down the inside there, late breaking.

I've closed the gap. My sprint winner is Max for Stappen. Yes, Max for Stappen is getting the sprint pole, sprint win. Tommy is winmilling on the live stream and it's going to be just absolutely phenomenal. The winmilling or the championship. Okay. Sprint winner, I have gone for Lando Norris.

I think he's going to continue his good form. He was so dominant last time out. I'm fascinated to see how Lando will do. You mention it like it can go one of either way. he withstands the pressure, continues his form. We saw what happened last year. There's obviously this whole talk of, has he been really good and improved

because the pressure's off him leading the title. He's leading the title now. He's potentially going to go into a wet Brazilian Grand Prix after what happened last year. We're about to, you know, see it is such a fascinating setup. But I personally saw a new driver in Landon Norris. I think it was a championship worthy drive that he did. and I think you'll continue as good form.

Absolutely fair opinion indeed, Tom Bellingham. We now go to pole position for the main Grand Prix. Pol position I've gone for Lando Norris. I actually predicted it without knowing the weather, but of course Lando is a very solid weather driver as well. So yeah, I'll go for Lando to continue his good form. obviously got him winning the sprint and then go straight into qualifying

a mere a few hours later and does it again. Okay, Landon Norris is locked in for Tommy I can confirm I was not going to go for LN for the pole position because I'm going for da da da da it's Max Verstappen once again

it's a Max Verstappen clean sweep in terms of Sprint Poll, Sprint Win and pole position I'm here for it. I'm living it. I'm dreaming it. I want it. I want everything to do with Max Verstappen being in part of this three-way fight. And am I really that delusional? Yes, he was absolutely nowhere in Mexico in comparison to Lando. But Brazil is a whole different kettle of fish. I will say, right, in these... If it is a bone-dry Brazilian Grand Prix weekend, I'm scoring zero points because Lando has won everything. However, weather don't let me down. That's all I'll say, to make this championship interesting. I've never wanted to lose this prediction championship more in literally one single weekend of just being over.

That's amazing. But I'll take it for the championship. Yeah, you certainly will for sure. Imagine you're like, oh, Max is 16 points behind the championship lead now, but I've lost five points in the championship in the championship. Yeah, oh no. championship of predictions. We'll just have to wait to Qatar.

That's what I'll be saying. Oh no. Actually, I kind of hope Max actually is out of the title fight just so I can stop hearing you say, we need to wait until Abu Dhabi Free Practice 3 to really understand. Yeah. Right. Okay. We now head to the main race results. In third position, I am locking in Lewis Hamilton.

And this is not something I'm doing because I thought you were going to put it as well. I genuinely had that in my predictions before you even said about good surprise. Because I said I was going to put good surprise Lewis Hamilton as Tommy ferociously now changes his P3 George Russell is being fielded as we speak.

Literally in red it as well. But for me it is Lewis Hamilton. He's going to get his first podium and it's going to be at Brazil. What a moment for for, well not first podium ever. First podium for Ferrari. Tommy, over to you.

I'm going to go for George Russell. Oh, it's so annoying because I even thought about the meme and was like, oh, you know, I always go for a backup of George Russell. But it is P3, so I was kind of like, I can see it happening. P3, yeah? So yeah, go on for George again. Okay. And that's an absolutely fair prediction as well. Yeah, yeah, that's what I mean.

It's not even for the banter. It's like, it's solid. He's a very solid drive around there. Okay, we had to second position, Tommy. Second position I've gone for. Charles Leclerc. A double Ferrari podium. I had to wet Brazil, potentially.

Yeah, that's what I had gone for. Obviously, I've now changed Lewis Hamilton out. Of course, yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Yeah, so I've gone for good surprise for Lewis Hamilton and then predicted his teammates to finish second and get sprint pole. I love how you're like Hamilton P3 but I can't upgrade it to P2 There's no chance about that

No I was thinking about it But I'll stick with it Because I'll kick myself if it comes in And change so yeah I'll go for Charlotte Claire Okay Charleclair P2 My second position

Is Lando Norris Okay Finally a brain cell is speaking in my My brain just purely from the fact that Lando won Mexico By a country mile And if, as I said, if we have dry, sensible conditions or a sensible race, I firmly believe that Lando will win by a big old margin.

But Brazil is never simple. So I've gone for a second anyway, because I'm not expecting a massive Lando falloff. I'm also not expecting Oscar Piaastri to be on Lando's pace. I just feel like this is going to be Struggle Town now for Oscar from now to the end of the season from what we've seen over the last few Grand Prix. I hope not as well for his sake, because it will be difficult for him to bounce back in 26 knowing that he led the championship for so long, but you have to go from what you've seen in the last few weekends,

and it's been Advantage Lando. So P2 for Lando Norris. In first position for the Brazilian Grand Prix, I am locking in. Max Verstappen. It's a complete and utter whitewash. It's MV all day, baby. please

it's funny because I would have been slanded doing this as these is my predictions in 20203 in 2025 I am heralded for putting Max Verstappen in all of these positions because it is seen as a left field approach these days which is crazy I've gone for it I've gone all in most of my eggs are in Max's basket

so there you go he has to win doesn't he let's be honest it will be the greatest weekend for Formula 1 if firstly I take the lead of the predictions championship and secondly max gets within about 15 points of uh of of the lead of the world title as well what do you obviously we all know my answer will be we have to wait to catar but what what do you think the the points like seven probably not enough of a gain say like lando second how many points would you need to gain yeah it kind of almost needs to be like he needs to be within a win

with those three rounds to go i'd say we need we need to be getting into the 25s especially with Qatar, where... Qatar, McLaren. That is on paper, Vegas is a race where McLaren could really struggle like they have in the past.

Is their bogey track? Vegas, I think, has beat George Russell again for Max. Yeah, yeah, it could be. And then, yeah, we go into Qatar and Abu Dhabi, I do think, should in theory be McLaren territory, but we thought that a lot this season and then Max just went on this crazy winning streak,

so who knows? So there you go. What is, who is, which is, where is? Who's your P1? It is, Landon Norris. I have gone for the dry weather prediction of Lando. But even if it does rain, he's been really good in the wet throughout his career. And I just think that confidence boost that he's had going from Mexico.

Interestingly, both of us have not put Oscar Piastri anywhere near our predictions and I as you said and as I'll say again like I hope I'm wrong because we need Oscar in this title fight to make it as interesting as possible as well and it'd be such a shame for him to just fall off at this this final stage when he had been leading so long so I do hope he is in it but I am like you very worried about about his form fingers crossed it changes but I just can't see past Lando this weekend based on what we saw in Mexico. And yes, my very pessimistic prediction. Yeah, not touch Max either.

No, other than flop. You've basically got Lando leading by at least sort of 16 or more points come the end of this weekend. Yeah, for Oscar, another reason why I've not put him in my top three is purely from the fact that if he is struggling in qualifying compared to Lando, say, two, three-tenths. That is enormous around a track like Brazil where I foresee, you know, very close qualifying. Unless we get a rainy one and it's, you know, a Hass on pole again. If it's a dry one, you could easily see Oscar at the towards the bottom of the top 10 if he is

losing those two, three-tenths that when the margins are so tight at Brazil. So that's another reason to throw into the mix. As we now head into no reasoning whatsoever, our one crazy prediction it's for you, Tommy. It is. It is. And you'll be surprised to hear that it is. All McLaren pit stops are under three seconds. I am...

I am throwing away points the rest of the season. It is mad. It genuinely is mad. By the way, can we just... Sorry, before you... This is a sprint weekend as well. You know, there could be changeable conditions. No, for the race, for the Grand Prix.

Oh, okay. I shouldn't have clarified actually. I'm glad you did. did because yeah, that's bold. Well, no, they don't pin a sprint though, do they, I guess. I was saying if it's changeable conditions, they might. Yeah, true. Oh, God, the jeopardy of changeable conditions is even more extreme, isn't it?

But, no, I'm going for it again. I can't actually genuinely believe that this keeps happening. It is quite insane. And the fact that, you know, McLaren, it's weirdly like, other than Lando in Monza, we yet to have a moment where it's like, really been like, oh my God, because obviously that made them switch positions. But what's so weird is it's only ever like one of the cars. Last time out, they failed this again, but then won the fastest pitts up award.

When they get it right, there's literally like 2.1, 2.0 like bangers. And when they get it wrong, it's just really wrong. I hope for McLaren's sake they do get it right, but I hope for my sake that they do get it right, but I hope for my sake that they don't. So I can continue to laugh at Tommy not getting the point for this ridiculous prediction. He's now done three race weekends in a row. My crazy prediction,

Hamilton gets a podium in either sprint or main race. Come on my go. Let's go. It's got to be done. That again, it is crazy because Hamilton has had one sprint win this entire year. But two sprint podiums. And two sprint, is it two sprint podiums?

So out of, four races so hard yeah no but it's fine it's all good is that crazy yeah it is pretty crazy it is pretty crazy it is pretty crazy it's got to be main podium surely

we'll see about when the result terms of conditions will apply afterwards oh gosh hold on all right no wait no I yeah we'll we'll revisit right so let's go to our

Patreon prediction where if you're part of the P1 Patreon you can get involved and submit your prediction via the Discord as well as of course getting ad-free listening and many other perks

my Patreon prediction comes in from Peyton G Max is within a race win from the championship lead after the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend Oh my God, you have gone so Why do you think I have this red bull shirt from about 10 years ago?

Oh my goodness me You've gone so ham with this. It's crazy. I have. Why not? I believe in something crazy. I want to see this story unfold. And I want to see Max somehow win this championship from, you know, more than 100 points behind.

It's, uh, we all live for sporting stories and this would be quite, this would be one of them. We all live for me having a tattoo on my house. And I'm that as well. Of course. Yeah. So my Patreon prediction is from Jensen's listening. And speaking of all eggs in the basket, it is Lewis finally breaks his Ferrari podium drought. Okay.

So we've both got your... That's crazy. So there's a bit of a bit of blocking, is it? Because we're equal. But I'd already picked it. So obviously, as we've said many times and as you'll know, based on how many times we go for the same thing without realizing it, we don't see each other. Well, there you go.

That basically sign seals delivers it for me. that my crazy prediction is either the sprint or the main race because you've literally gone for the same prediction as me if it is just the main race. So thank you very much. I will take the slightly more flexible crazy prediction, get in the bin, Tom Bellingham. Right.

It's family predictions time. It is hotting up. It's hotting up mainly because neither of us are scoring any points. So it's still close. One point is 10-9 to the boring Bellingham's once again. And Ellie is on the line. Well, she will be on the line. She thought she had a nail appointment at three,

which is an hour from now. So it was like a lot of time. but it's actually 2 o'clock so her nail appointments in one minute so we have to get her predictions right now we're going to fly through it

Hello hello hi Elle welcome from the nail salon I actually sat just outside the nail salon because I didn't want to do it inside the nail salon

That would have been better actually because then you could have asked their opinions as well okay The nail salon top three I don't think that they're avid Formula 1 watches but we can try

How do you know You know you know You know I think we've talked about it before and I think they're I said no, but... Oh, fair enough.

Okay, right, so give me your top three for the Brazilian Grand Prix, starting with third. Inside, I'm going to go for Lando Norris. Okay, P3, Lando, yep, P2. In second, I'm going to go for George Russell. Hello, good evening. And he's coming back, fighting for this week after last... Okay, all right, and in first position, please. It's got to be Max for Strasen.

happen. Oh my God. To be honest, that is very tasty predictions and there's no criticism to be had. It's Brazil. You can just literally, I mean, Georgina literally put Alonzo in last time. This was probably where we wanted to field Alonzo, if anything, if there's one race weekend. Yeah. But thank you so much. I hope your nails go well and I hope they will have the Brazilian flag on them. Probably not, but okay. Bye. Bye. I love you. Bye. All right. I'm not again. I'm not that at all, not against that top three. It feels like it's going to come true and that's the three-pointer for the Gallagher's. Tommy, who are you fielding this week? Well, I've taken a big risk here because the Bellingham's, I don't feel like we've scored points in absolutely ages.

We obviously had a massive lead at one point and I don't feel like we're scoring many points, but I'm putting trust in grace again. No, your will. Her wheel knowledge has improved. I'm trusting her. So last night I got her to, I've recorded another video with her where I had all the drivers on screen and I'll play it for you now. Here we go. You see these racing drivers? I need you to tell me who's going to finish third at the Brazilian Grand Prix, which one? Oscar Piastri. Okay, who's going to do second? Lewis Hamilton? Wow. And who's going to win the Brazilian Grand Prix?

Who's that? Matt Stappen. Nice for Stappen. That's a good prediction. There we go. A Max Lewis. A Max win, a Ferrari second and a McLaren 3rd. I'm pretty proud of it, to be honest.

I thought it might be about sort of, I don't know, until she's maybe like 20 years old. She'll come on the podcast and replace you. It's now within a couple of months. Can you imagine? More will knowledge. I was thinking this after today. Can you imagine if we got the same result as last time and she missed out on the double Alpine podium?

And she didn't actually predict him and then it comes in. That's so true. Gosh, wow, I've completely forgot that even happened. But Grace has fielded a strong top three. It's a strong top three. The brainwashings happened. You've been playing some nursery rhymes that are like, you will choose Oscar PSGP-E-3.

True. Although she's picked one driver that's not had decent perform, been on a podium a while and one driver that's not been on the podium at all this season. But if there's one place to make a change, it's this one. Thank you, Grace. And there we have it. It is all locked in.

I love how aggressively I've gone on a long weather forecast nine days away that what we're going to see is moisture in the air and a wet Brazilian Grand Prix. but I'm just in I'm very much glass half full if anything my glass is completely full at the moment when it comes to Formula 1 in the season Tommy is is is he's so dehydrated it's crazy the man is his pessimistic voice is absolutely controlled in at the moment so with that being said what are your final thoughts pessimistic Tommy my final thoughts are I won't be pessimistic and I'll end on an optimistic thought of um because as I will be in the future. I'll say I'm having the best time of the delusion tour in North America right now. And the shows the other day were incredible.

And you need to make sure that you go see them. Because honestly, last night it was unbelievable. You wouldn't believe it. It was a banger. I can't believe I crowd surfed. That was crazy. Naked. Yeah.

We want people to go. Yeah, people were choosing where to put the tatto. Anyway, right, so there you go. That is it. Thank you everybody for watching and listening. As always, we will see you for our live streams. We'll still be streaming, even if we are out in North America doing our shows. In a Denver hotel.

Yeah, be live streaming somewhere in Denver. And I look forward to it very much. We'll see you then. Lots of love. Take care. Bye. Max is having a stink now, isn't it? Yeah, and how's Samos Hamilton.

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