P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Chinese GP predictions

Episode Date: March 19, 2025

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Hello everybody and welcome back to the Big One Podcast with Matt and Tommy. One race down, another one just round the corner. Because yes, it is race week. It is predictions time once again for the second round of the 2025 Formula One season. Tommy, you are fully kitted out. One good race for Kimmy Antonelli. He whips out the Mercedes top and look at him. It doesn't make sense.

In my brain and in my eyes, what's going on? I know. Shout out to Adidas for sending us some gear at the start of the year. Yeah, I also have the same gear and you will see me wear it at some point this season. Yeah, exactly. It's a really nice top. And of course, Antonelli, I've been back in him since Day Dot. And yeah, here we are.

I'm kind of in the glory of the P4. So I thought I'd get the new shirt on. All right. Okay. And I'm just wearing Williams. You're Williams because I'm a big Logie Bear fan. Bring him back. Bring back a leggy.

I feel like he would have done a really good job in Australia. Anyway, we've got some more predictions. I, of course, am ahead 3-2 coming into this and also leading the family predictions 1-0. So let's see. We both have our mothers on the line a little bit later on, which will be good fun to see what they come up with. But first and foremost, let's begin with a good surprise.

Now, this one, I obviously want to happen because I want a point, but I also want it to happen for the good of the universe. My good surprise is Isaac Hadjar. He will just do a great job. He did a great job in qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix, just narrowly missing out in Q3. And I would, this is more of like a wholesome one where I really hope this comes true.

And if you've gone for him as a good surprise, Tommy, you don't want to. I nearly did. And then you realised this never comes true, don't touch it with a barge pole. So I've gone for him instead. So let's see. Okay, interesting. So my good surprise is only taken till the second race for me to do a team again.

And I've gone for. Hasse. They've gone. 18 to 19th to qualifying. I've gone for the Matt Gallagher special of if they're not last. If they're not dead last, It's a point. No, I do think they're going to do better this weekend.

I know it can't get any worse, but, you know, my thinking here is they're not going to be the worst team. And hopefully for them, it was a kind of flesh in the pan for Melbourne. And they're not as awful as we think. And hopefully, you know, they're not changing their mind during strategy, literally as the safety cars about to come in. So, yeah. Oh, is that weather coming? and we're on the right tires. Change that.

Change that completely. We want the drives. We want to be on a level playing field. I want to be a minute behind when the safety car comes. I've just unlap myself. I want to be back in the pack, actually. So maybe they thought it was big brain strats.

Oh, we've unlapped ourselves. Maybe they won't realize that we're actually running in P3 ahead of Max Verstappen. Anyway, that did not work. Let's go to a big flop. My big flop is Lewis Hamilton.

And I don't say this with a smile on my face because I've lost it all. Every, every, just slither of hope. I genuinely think there might be 30 seconds of happiness, which was when they were leading one, two, on hard tires when it was raining for the entire season. 30 seconds of happiness sounds like a season review DVD of Ferrari. So, yeah, I. I don't think Ferrari are going to be very good round here. I have,

and as soon as Charlotte Clair's second in free practice one, we're back. But for now, I just can't see it. So, and I think Lewis Hamilton, with his struggles, disappear overnight,

over one week. I don't think so. He's still learning the car. He said that himself. He's still learning the power unit. He's still learning how to communicate with his engineers. So for me, that's one for Hamilton.

All right. What is crazy is my initial, two predictions were good surprise Hajjar and biggest flop, Lewis Hamilton. No word of a lie. And I've not changed them right before. I genuinely haven't seen your predictions. And it's worth saying, we never

look at each other's predictions. We don't know what we're going to say into this, yeah. Wow. That's crazy. So a big flop, I have gone for Pierre Gazley. De Nguise said it was so much gusto when it's a bad thing. A bad thing. Yeah. Bad race.

Yeah, gone for Gaz. Alpine didn't surprise me as much as I thought as good they were going to be and maybe a bit of thinking behind this as well is that Dewan impressed

more than I thought he would so maybe a little out qualification from doing and maybe even outraced by doing would count as a big flop in my my brain is writing down some T's and Cs for this big flop where Pierre Gassley beats Jet doing by

three tents across the line And I'm like, well, in AT, then I'm like, oh no, you said, you said he would help me outraced. Okay, well, we will see if that comes true. Let's now go to Sprint Poll. Don't forget, it's a Sprint weekend. Oh, yes. And look, it's funny, right? Because I think I say at the top of every show where we complain about what time we have to get up,

that we completely respect the fans around the world that do this all the time. But it's not going to stop me from rolling out the fact that, the sprint race is on at 2.30 in the morning. That was also on my sheet of like predictions bingo. How long will it take before Matt mentions the 2 a.m. start? Look, I think it's worth mentioning because one, I just completely misheard a team radio in Australia and thought there was going to be a crossover when it went to dries.

And I was like, yeah, Tommy, this is what's happening. And that's just purely just brain fog that was going on at that point. I hate to think what I'm going to sort of, imagine. I might well see a Ferrari 1-2 around China as well and it's not happening in the slightest. You've been watching a replay from four years ago or something.

Yeah, there may be. But yes, so there is a sprint and it should be very exciting, of course, more competitive sessions. Let's go to sprint poll where my sprint pole position person is Oscar Piastri.

That man, I'm convinced that we're going to see something special this weekend. I feel like and there was such a good tweet that I saw where it was a clip of him going around the outside of Hamilton, one of the best moves I've seen in a while. That move is unbelievable. Sensational.

And the tweet kind of mentioned about the fact that you just know Oscar Piastri was emotionless when he did that. And that just kind of made me think of how he will come into this weekend where I feel as though he will want to settle the score that was left in Australia. He was very quick in qualifying, narrowly missing out on pole position, and I just get the sense that Oscar might well have stepped up this year. So that's why I've gone for Sprint pole Oscar.

Sprint pole. I'm going to change it. So we don't have exactly the same predictions for everything. I'm going to go for Landau-Norris. It was actually Piastri, but let's mix it up. I go for the other McLaren. Of course... Can you imagine, by the way, if all three of my...

Good surprise, big flop and sprint pole is correct when you've changed all three of them at some point. I know. I know. I'm actually generally concerned to the point where I won't, but I almost want to like look at the sheet and make sure we've not done exactly the same predictions. Yeah, I'll go for a round day. I don't, I know that we've got this new kind of technical directive already, which I've never seen one so early, talk about the FIA pooping their pants that a team is so far ahead when it was meant to. be the greatest season of all time and everyone, uh, different, different kind of winners and stuff. I don't think it's going to nerve them that much. We've blown that a proportion in the media, I think. Oh, 100% about entirely on Thursday. Yeah, yeah, 100%.

Um, but I don't think it's going to completely kind of nerve. When you've got a good car, you've got a good car. And, um, yeah, I think McLaren will still be strongest, particularly around a track like this. And, uh, I'm going for, for Lando to continue his. good form. Okay. We go to sprint winner. I've also gone for Oscar Piastri.

Oscar will, Oscar, you know, he loves a sprint, doesn't he? Obviously, won in Qatar that time. That was his first victory that, you know, it wasn't really a victory because it wasn't a full feature race. But still, yeah, I think that he were, if Oscar's in the lead, I feel as though, especially over a sprint race distance, he will have Lando, Max, whoever's number, in my opinion. Okay, sprint win now I've gone for Landon Norris. Was that changed from Oscar Piacere as well?

You can go for the same as me, you know. No, actually, no, I'm going to, I'm going to stay with my original prediction. I'm going to go for Oscar Piaastri. I think he is going to be so determined after what happened in Australia, turn it around. And I think the key thing as well is, while that's so disappointing of what happened with Oscar Piastri and how his race actually finished and the result, that race showed to me that, okay, he can actually fight here. And kind of the fears of thinking that, oh, the pace of Oscar at the end of last year, is he going to be able to like challenge Lando? That first race was like,

okay, Piastri is here. And I think he's going to be even more determined after what happened to get a big result. So yeah, sprint winner, Oscar. Yeah, I mean, I've predicted for the same things. I don't think it's categorical proof just yet, especially with what strange conditions we had in Australia that Oscar is going to be for the whole year. But, yeah, I think both of our feelings

are that perhaps there has been another step up in Oscar's trajectory with it being his third season. Okay, now we go to poll position. So the main qualifying, my poll sitter, is Lando Norris. Come on. Have I done it again? Yeah.

How, how, by the way, have we done our entire preseason? It's the best championship fight of all time. It's so unpredictable. You don't know what's going to happen. And then we've gone for the same blooming top five in our entire championship table. And by race two, we're doing identical predictions. What a series. No, it's great.

It's great. And look, this hasn't really ever happened to be. honest with you. No, and I think it's mainly because I'm, my Ferrari delusions already conked out,

otherwise I'll be put in Charlerc at winning everything. So I've gone for actual points at the start of the year rather than just throwing the championship. So that's why I've gone

for what is supposedly the fastest team. Poposition, I've gone for Landon Norris and P3, I'm going to go first next to a... Oh, oh, you just see you, so if I have to change it.

Yeah, yeah. I imagine if your third place is the same as mine. Imagine. Do I just say it now? P3. Max has happened. Okay.

Thank God for that. Oh, is it? Oh, thank goodness for that. I was going to put Max as well and I changed it at the last minute. So we're still in my head. Okay. Why Max? Why Max?

I feel like he is, I don't think the car is there. We've seen. I do think a lot of the speed of the Red Bull and Max's performance was those tricky conditions. But he can kind of pull those races out the bag when he needs to. And I think he's just going to kind of keep that pressure on of being the kind of driver to, you know, challenge at the front. And yeah, so I feel like Max, you wouldn't write him off for a podium even if the car was like third or fourth best. So,

Okay, well, I would write him off because I haven't put him in my top three. In third position for me, I've gone for George Russell. I feel like back-to-back podiums, George had a very quiet Australian Grand Prix, just popped up on the podium. Everyone went, oh, George, okay, all right, podium, enjoy that. And I feel as though, look, Mercedes, whether they still have that very narrow window of working, we will have to wait and see. But China, look, I'm going to just do a really quick.

Shanghai weather. God, is it going to say it's raining. No. Okay, so we're talking like 23, 24 degrees. Nothing crazy. So, look, is that going to be the window for Mercedes? I think yes, clearly. So that's my third position.

I will go for second position next. And it is Lando Norris. So Lando is going to miss out on first place to someone. And I... How are we here? This was meant to be the closest season ever. Relax, Tommy. We're two races in.

We could score zero points and flipping Charles LeClerh wins everything. Okay? So look, come on. Gosh, you're sounding like flipping social media you are. But yes, I've gone for Lando Norris P2. P2.

P2, I've gone for Oscar Piastri. You'll never guess no, I've gone for Piastri. No, I've got for Piastri. I think it will be a race between the McLaren's. I think Oscar is going to do a really good job this weekend. I think he's shown that he's got the speed. And yeah, gone for second place.

Okay. In first position, I have gone for. Kimmy Antenelle. No, I haven't done that. Don't be silly. Goodness gracious me. I don't want to just lock in zero points now. Yeah.

Well, I was going to make a joke of like, Oh, we've predicted the same thing again. Hey, good. Yeah, we need a Mercedes top on. All right. I've gone for Oscar Piastri, obviously, because it's going to be another McLaren. Well, it should have been a McLaren 1-2 in Australia.

It will be a McLaren 1-2 in China. Well, not categorically. Fingers crossed, we get a closer race than perhaps we have put out into the atmosphere in this predictions episode. Tommy's already lost all hope that we're going to get the worst season. It's never. Amazing I didn't say that when Max was winning. Crazy.

C.S. I've gone for As a P1, I've gone for Lando Norris. Lando Norris. What? What? Never knew that. I don't think they are going to be nerfed by this new thing. They'll still be mighty. The new thing is reducing the gap in the rear wing from two miller. meters to half a millimeter.

Yeah. So unless that closing of the gap is one and a half millimeters is worth around half a second a lap, then we might, we, we're probably going to still see McLaren fastest, yes. Will they be closer? I think when you've got a good car, you've got a good car and I think the thing that McLaren, I think. You said that twice now. Yeah.

Put that on a quote. Put that on a t-shirt. Tom Bellingham, 2025. When you have a good, you're in drive to survive. You are Will Buxton. Yeah, I am. I am. If you win the race.

you will be the winner. And their car is so good on its tyres and being able to kind of keep the heat in the tires and compared to everyone else, which a few of the other rival drivers have spoken about that every other car is struggling to kind of... It's not keeping the heat. Sorry, not overheating.

At least in Australia where it was high temperatures, yeah. Yeah, exactly. And McLaren were able to kind of that. So I think they'll still be very, very good indeed. And Lando, obviously, the championship leader, which has been a long time, over a thousand days since we've been able to say someone else is leading the championship, will continue to lead to that championship after China. Although every time, if you do remember, we go back to last year that any of us predict Lando first, he doesn't win. so we'll see if this year, if Lando can still win.

So I only have only had poll for me. We'll see. That means Lando wins everything. You're welcome Lando fans. Okey dokey, it's time to go to the point where you're, you know, this is the reason you're all tuned in. It's the family top three. It's currently one nil to the Gallagas. That's correct.

My dad almost got all three last time. Yeah, that was unbelievable. Just narrowly missed out. We are now bringing in the mothers. So. To close the. gap. We are now... We're bringing in the mums. So let's see if my mum remembers that I told her I'm going

to ring her. I was thinking the very same thing. Here we go then. Ringing away, let's see if my mother picks up. Hello. Hi there, mum. How are you? Hi there. I'm fine, thank you. You are live on the P1 podcast. Please do not swear. And if you do, just bleep you out. So, mum, top three please beginning with third place. Third place is going to be, there we go. Oscar E. I think that cut out slightly.

Oscar Pastri? Oscar P. Oscar P. Definitely doesn't have this written down on a piece of paper. Okay, Oscar Pastery. Okay. Okay. Mom, this is really serious stuff, okay. Your scoring points for the Gallagher's.

What about P2? P2, Max, Bustappan. Okay, I don't mind this. I don't mind this. And in first place, Lando Norris. Mom, are you cooking right now? Are you in the kitchen,

sheffing up a top three for the Gallagher's? Well, that's my prediction. Cool. All right. Perfect. Thank you so much, Mom. Lots of love. Thank you.

Bye. Bye. All right. Don't love me then. All right, cool. Okay. Another big question is, Will my mum? Come on. Come on, Tommy's mum. We can do this. That is not loud at all. There we go.

Bonjour, mother. Savabian mercy. All right. This is a good. Come on. Isn't it? Okay. Right. You are live on the P1 podcast right now. So I need your top three starting with P1. P3, please. Okay, so P3, Antonelli. Love it.

Love that. Love that. Matt's laughing. I respect it. P2. Norris. Norris, P2. That's a good one.

That's a good one. annoying. That's what I wait for. And P1. Pastery. Okay, we've gone the McLaren one two again. Oh, this is, this is rigged. This is rigged.

Where's the Charlotte Claire belief? The Charlotte Claire belief. has gone already. She's predicted in world champion. Yeah, you're predicted in world champion. Do you regret that decision now? Fair enough me too. Excellent. All right, mum. Thanks very much.

Speak you soon. Bye. Bye. Bye. There we go. I didn't love you back either. Crazy. A lot of non-love there from the families. And no Charlotte Claire love. He's not been mentioned once in this entire prediction podcast. For the third episode, we both have sisters.

So that will be the next. My sister, I joked with my parents about ringing my sister. I genuinely like her top three would be like, Vettel, Schumacher and Damon Hill or something. Perfect. Perfect. That's zero points for the Bellingham's. We love to see it. Okay, let's move on to one crazy prediction. My one crazy prediction is none of the rookies will cause or have an incident.

Okay. Yeah. Is yours the same? It's not. I don't think you'd go for this one. My one crazy prediction is a Ferrari gets knocked out in Q1. There we go. What do you mean there we go?

There we go. Let that sink in. There's some fumes in your room or something. What's going on there? No, just feel like. That kind of ties in with the Lewis Hamilton big flop. Yeah, it does actually, yeah. Why?

Just feel like, well, it was partly because I changed my mind on Hamilton biggest flop. But you never know. I feel like we're due a live stream meltdown when LeClau's like a P-17 or something. Oh, good. We'll see, we'll see. A really good friend. Yeah, nice.

Kind of see I'm already down, but you want to kick me whilst I'm struggling. Okay, good. Well, that's fantastic. That's not going to happen, is it? Let's go to our Patreon prediction, where if you join our Patreon, you can get ad-free viewing,

you can join our Discord, you can get early access to live-show tickets, and there's lots more awesome benefits. And you can also, yes, submit a prediction that we then, it becomes our own. And the one that I have chosen, because I definitely didn't forget to do it

until right this second, is from Bushwicky 5128. Carlos Sines will finish ahead of both Ferraris. Wow, so you've raced me. Yeah, but Carlos is winning the race, so it's fine. The Williams top. Yeah, okay. You've changed your top three. It's Carlos, Charles, Hamilton.

Just anything for... I don't even know what I'm doing anymore. Tommy, I'm emotionally vulnerable. Carry on. What's yours? Okay, my patron prediction is from Charlotte 90. Every car that starts the race finishes it. And so, yeah, going for a full kind of, after a crazy race where we had loads of DNFs, we're going to have none. Wow, no DNFs.

Okay, that kind of, I mean... And Isaac Hajjah will finish the race and Matt will go, oh, he went out on the formation lap. That's the biggest good surprise. I can see it already. Well, actually, if Isaac Hajar, yeah, does make the first lap in. That is the best performance of his F1 career, so I'll take a point. Thank you very much.

The loopholes have begun. Exactly. Right, that is it. Thank you, everybody, for tuning in to the predictions for the second round of the season. Can't wait to see. China is a big, a big favorite of mine in terms of the circuit. such an awesome one, an underrated gem, I would say. So looking forward to that.

We'll, of course, be live on Twitch and YouTube, as always. So come and join us there if you want to watch along with us, Tommy, 2.30 a.m. for the sprint race. 7am, I think. This is UK time, obviously, for the races and for qualifying. Yeah, so it'd be like about half six or something. No chance. I'm seeing FP1.

So there you go. Thank you, everybody. Tommy, what's your final thoughts? My final thoughts are big respect to my mum for joining the Kimmy Antonelli Hyped Train and predicting MP3. To be fair, I like, I was like, oh yeah, that's not going to be a point. But then I went for George Russell. So I clearly believe there is some, I think your shirt's actually sort of brainwashed me slightly. Yeah, maybe.

Just sat there. It'd be very good. Anyway, that's it. Thank you, everybody. See you soon. Let's love. Take care. Bye.

Bye. Okay. My chore. Because genuinely when we forget to put a chore in, I see comments going, where's the chores? Where's the chore? They're like sat there in front of every household appliance, ready to do whatever we say.

Well, my one today is a chore where you get a top three prediction from one of your family members and see how they stack up against the Gallagher's and the Bellingham's and then let us know. Yeah. And don't just make it up. Don't say, you know, it was you. No, it needs to be a family member.

Come on, get involved. I agree that. The people that always say about our predictions and that they play along, now get the families involved as well. Exactly. It's going to be a whole, you know, to be fair, you keep doing that,

get your families in, and then all of a sudden, everybody in the world watches Formula One. If we just keep spreading the word, it'd be great, but then ticket prices won't be that great, so maybe don't actually. Okay, bye. Bye.

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