P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Italian GP predictions

Episode Date: September 3, 2025

We're straight into another race weekend, as the circus heads to Monza - a track Ferrari are usually pretty competitive at. You know what that means: it's delusion time!Tickets to P1 Live in Australia next year are almost sold out! To grab your tickets for those or any of our shows this year in the UK, Ireland and North America, click here: tix.to/p1liveYou can listen to an extended version of every race review episode over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the B1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Look at us. We are back once again. And this time it's a special one. It's Monza. It's the Italian Grand Prix. And I am so ready for this one, Tommy. I can't tell you.

I feel like this could be, could be very special indeed. You've got a new house just sorted for the Italian Grand Prix. That's how much Monza means to you. Absolutely. I've not been trying to get my internet sorted for the last two weeks and been in different places, but we are here. And I feel like, yeah, it must make sense, right? Why has it all come together right now ahead of Monza? What's also hilarious is I saw a clip from the F1 fan zone from the Dutch Grand Prix and it was Charlotte, Charlotte Claire talk about how he's moving house at the moment? And I was like, how have we not made that? What, really? That made that joke yet. He's going to move on over? Where's he moving to? Maybe on the sofa behind you, who knows. Oh, stop it.

You know that's reserved for you. Right, let's get into the predictions. It's currently 4140 to Tommy. Very close indeed. You just edged ahead from the Dutch Grand Prix, and it's now my time to bounce back. Let's see what happens. It's my time to go first as well.

How exciting is that? So my good surprise for the Italian Grand Prix is Liam Lawson Liam Lawson yeah yeah yeah I read your criticism Is this anything to do driver ratings no I think we did unfairly grade him

for what he was actually doing in that race so I apologise to all the Liam Lawson fans that clearly set everything on fire in the driver ratings episode but genuinely though I think that this is a good shout as well Hajjah's off the back of a podium racing balls are doing very well

Lawson, of course, could have had a really good opportunity and a good result in Zambor. Didn't. So I'm seeing all these loopholes and I'm like, look, Liam Lawson, little top six or something, like we're cooking. So there you go. Nice. He didn't finish seventh. Don't hold me for that.

I have gone for good surprise. Carlos Sites. Of course, the guy who tangled with Liam Lawson in the last race. Yeah, I think, look, surely Carlos is due a good race. he's had that's so true actually yeah he's he's been on a a poor run of form we know that williams can be good in the past around monza even though they kind of say look we're not just a monsa specialist now but carlos has been on such a bad run of form that surely surely it's got to turn around at some point and you kind of saw a little bit of it in in the dutch grand prix with with him out qualifying alex alburn and looking quite good until until the incident with lorson so yeah i'm going for carlos to have a good result. He has absolutely owed a good result. So that is a very good shout. I think to be

honest, at any points scoring for Carlos this year is deemed pretty surprising with how bad luck he's had and things he's been involved in. Let's go to a big flop. I have gone for Lance Stroll. Oh, you're doing a me. You're doing a me. Yeah, yeah, he's had an amazing, amazing result. He's crashed twice in the last race. True, yeah, exactly. Has to crash three times. I'm still going to come in. I'm still over that.

Let's not move on for it. Let's not talk about drive-writes again, bro, please. And, look, Lance, this is more the fact that I just don't think Aston Martin are maybe going to be as strong around here. I went for us to mine in the last race. Of course, I said that I didn't know if Aston would be good. And sure enough, they were amazing. So looking forward to a Lance troll podium like we had in 2020.

of course. Yes, a race that he absolutely could have won and got a podium instead, didn't he? Yeah, I feel like, yeah, my memory serves me right. He should have won that race. He was on the front row of the grid in the really quick racing point and, yeah, finished third instead. But he got a podium. He did.

And apparently another one is on the way to stop Tommy getting any points. And I would, I'd take it to be honest with you. My big flop is Mercedes. I've gone for a team. Tommy. I've gone for two points. I've done it, Antonelli on the podium confirmed. But I have just gone for it, you know.

I don't know why. I think that the reason I've gone for it is that Monsa can breed a little bit of unexpected results. You know what I'm saying? And you've got racing balls on a great run of form at the moment. You've got Williams that I think are knocking on the door of potentially getting a podium at some point. And that could just mean that Mercedes don't have a great weekend. So am I completely deluge? or do you think Mercedes are going to be good this weekend?

I don't think they'll be good. I do think that we're looking at, yeah, obviously, like, McLaren are going to be strong. Ferrari in theory should do strong at Monza, but who knows, you know, we've said a lot about Ferrari this year. But Mercedes, I do hope you're wrong because I can't deal with another Kimmy Antonelli bad weekend. Yeah, I don't want to see it. Don't get me wrong, Tommy. But I want to see two points in my bank account more. So that's why I've dropped it in there.

So I'm really sorry, Kimmy fans. I want to see him do well, of course, after last year and everything that went on. Fingers crossed for him, but also fingers crossed for my two points. Cheers, thank you very much. Right, let's head to poll position. My poll position for the Italian Grand Prix in Monza, Oscar Piastri. Oscar should have won last year. Charler-Clau did something utterly special, as we all know.

I won't get into it. I did wonder when that name would be mentioned. Yeah, that's the first time. You thought it would be within three. To be fair, I did say in the intro if you watch it on YouTube. So, look, Oscar should have won, but I feel like a McLaren slight blunder with the strategy allowed the opportunity for Charler to win.

Charles did obviously an amazing job to make those tyres work and last. But Oscar was rapid and was well on his way to winning that race until it all came crashing down for him. So I think he's going to continue that run of form. why wouldn't he he was he's been great this season and he's a championship leader poor position i have gone for oh is he did he change it i'm ready to change um no i'm going to go for lando norris i'm going to go for lander norris what were you going to go i was nearly going to go for charlerclair you know i i nearly was thinking about it but i just

don't see i just don't see for i being as good as mcclaren i know it's a very unique circuit and in theory you know if there's going to be a service at the McLaren maybe aren't as good at as the others, a very different one like Monza, but I still see him being very quick. So, no, we'll go for Lando. I think he will bounce back after the heartbreak of his DNF, of course. And yet, whether a pole position will change things for him,

but it would be a big confidence boost, of course, after what happened at the Dutch Grand Prix if he bags that pole position. Certainly will. Right, let's head to P. Now this is, I know what you're thinking already, as I say this. So P3, I'm going for Lewis Hamilton. I know he's got a penalty, with the five place penalty, with how bad his form has been.

And I just, this is just pure delusion and maybe just hoping. Have we swapped roles? What's going on? I know, I know. Part of me just thinks like all this kind of hardship. and stuff and how he's not got a podium and Holcomburg has got a podium and Hajjah's got a podium Louis Hamilton still doesn't have a podium for Ferrari just imagine imagine if it was at Monza. You don't have to tell me to imagine that twice Tommy. It would be so good. So I know it's going to be a tough ask the fact that he's got that penalty

but he is very good around Monza as well like it's a circuit that he has been really strong at So, yeah, I'm going to go for Lewis Hamilton. Why not? Ooh, okay. I thought you were going to go the other side of the garage. My P3 is Charlotte Claire. Yeah, yeah, we're not winning anything, guys. I can't.

I cannot stretch far enough into my delusion to believe that Ferrari are going to win this year. I genuinely think we're going to have, and I know that in my bowl prediction for the rest of the season, I said the Ferrari win two or more. Two race wins and you've bailed in the first race. From what I saw in Soundvo, I know it's a very different track. I know it, and I'll probably come back for Baku.

But I just... You watch Charlotte Clare sat on a hill for half the race and went. Yeah, that was depressing to watch. Look, third place would still be good. It still be a very good result to be on the podium in Monza. I just, the McLaren's have just been so good this year. Better than they were last year. I can't see Shire getting any higher than third,

so that's what I'm locking in, sadly. really makes me very upset. Second position, I am locking in. Hold on, so have you gone for pole? Maybe you've gone for Poland win. Second place I'm going for Landon Norris. Landon Norris is my P2. I think it'll be close between the McLaren's again.

I just, I cannot get out of my head last year and how Oscar was incredibly good around Monza and he has taken a step up since last year. and that trajectory if it continues that way then Oscar should have some really good speed this weekend, obviously, spoiler alert, might have gone for Lewis Hamilton P1, but I've gone for LandoRSP2.

It will still be quick, but it'll be close. You could go for one or the other, it really is that easy to score zero or two points. Indeed, yeah, I've gone for Oscar Piastri P2. Yeah, it wasn't Lando, don't need to change it. I had gone for Oscar. Do you see McLaren being very strong again. very, I think it would be very close between them.

Of course, the point swing was massive in Zandvort, but of course it was such close margins between them in qualifying. Could have easily gone the other way, and I feel like it's going to be the same again. Like, it's going to be a case of down to qualifying and who gets the better start potentially. So, yeah. What do you mean, Tommy?

There's loads of straight. There's loads of straits. I mean, you can overtake, right? I know. It's very true. Skinniest wings ever and DRA. What's the weather doing? I've not even looked at the weather.

I've checked the weather. It's sunny, mate. I mean, there is a little bit of potential rain on Friday. I'm not getting baited by that again. Yeah, Saturday and Sunday are looking clear at the moment. Okay. So watch it rain. Who knows?

Maybe. What about P1, Tommy? P1, no surprise. It's Lando Norris. I think he's going to bounce back with a pole position and a race victory. I just think, championship back on. I don't think the championship was ever off. I said it in our.

in our race review that you'd be silly to write off a championship with nine rounds to go. Yes, it's going to be difficult, but stranger things have happened in Formula One. It's not to say it will happen and not to say it's going to be easy if he does overturn it, but it's not impossible. He's in a very good car. There's lots of races to go still. And you never know if Oscar might have some trouble himself. We've seen crazy things happen in Formula One.

So I think Lando is going to take the victory. McLaren, if anything, you know, I'm not spoiler alert. But I won't go for McLaren every single week because I would make predictions very boring as a want-to. But I do think now they are just going to get stronger and stronger while everyone else just... This is our predictions. We're predicting. We are predicting. But sometimes we go for our delusional predictions instead of real ones.

But this has gone, this kind of... season that when I predicted McLaren to and the constructors I said that everyone else will just give up and that is exactly what I think is going to happen now the focus will switch and McLaren are going to be the team that will just be very comfortable in my opinion so yeah Lando P1

okay dokey I'm thinking about whether I go down some real crazy route right now after you're saying that no we're going to go for P1 Oscar Bastery I was going to do some crazy stuff. You'd sort of started to like rejuvenate and kind of fill back up my Ferrari bar of belief. But I couldn't put Lewis Hamilton P1.

Even though that would be, that would just be unbelievable, wouldn't it? But it's going to have to be, it's going to be Oscar Piastri. I don't know if it is, but I think it will be for the reasons that I've already said. Let's head to our one crazy prediction. Now, I've kept this one interesting just purely because I've not filled it in and therefore I'm going to make it up on the fly. Oh, yes.

So... Probably one too. My one crazy prediction is one of the top four teams out in Q1, thoughts. One of the top four drivers out in Q1, thoughts. Four teams or four drivers? Sorry, so out of the four teams, one of those drivers out of the top four teams,

it's out in Q1. Is that crazy when you see, Sonoda has had quite a few. Okay. All right. Excluding you Qaeda. One of the top seven. No, no, no. Antonelli, you've backed your goat. Hamilton out in Q1 is still crazy. It happened two races again.

No. Just because it happened once out of a whole season. That literally makes it crazy. Okay, yeah. Fine. Thank you. So excluding Sonoda. Top seven in the championship. Tough times. Yes. Is it top seven? I don't even know. Yeah. I think it will be.

weren't it? Okay, out in Q1. Okay, cool. That's mine. What's yours, Tommy? My one crazy prediction is Williams double points. And I looked into this and I, yeah, yeah, right, exactly. Is that crazy? And I, I actually did some research on this because I knew that, that, uh, you knew I'd asked for receipts. Yeah, yeah, of course. And I was surprised by myself with what I found. Williams haven't got a double points finish in absolutely ages. I think it was all the way back in Monaco and I now hear everyone going, but they're always so good at Monza. They definitely got one at Monza. They have not had a double points finish since 2018, which I was very surprised about. I was convinced they were like ninth and tenth every single Italian Grand Prix for the last

like five years, but apparently not. So there we go. Well, that is crazy. And I love how you kind of, when you're doing your crazy prediction, you've thought about what the repercussions will be of said prediction. Yeah, of course. You shut it down. beautifully. So well done Tommy. Absolutely love that. Let's add to our Patreon prediction where if you join the P1 Patreon, you can submit a prediction on our Discord and we select one of them to potentially score us a point. Mine is from.

Patrick. Strollet qualifies a loneso. So I've basically going against my own big flop because I know Lance Strull will become the goat because I've predicted him big flop. And so I'm basically playing 4D chess here. You are. We're all talking about the driver's championship here. It's getting competitive now. Everybody will, you know, how will Norris versus Piastri? How will they work against each other?

What about me and Tommy? Well, we are figuring it out. And that's a big bold play from you, Tommy. My patron prediction is from JP Falcon XR6, Colapinto in the points. There we go. Lock it in. Monza is a place. Colapinto, 11th place. in the Dutch Grand Prix. And Monza is a good, good place for, you know, we've had random standings, haven't we do very well indeed? And I'm here for... Call up into himself, of course.

Yeah, of course, yeah. So, why not? I believe in it. Tommy, do you believe in it? I'd love to see it. That's a note. I nearly went for it, actually, like an Alpine and Renault resurgence. But, because weirdly, Renaud,

you always used to be just amazing around a Monza back in the kind of back in the day. But sadly not. Sadly not. I would actually hope that you get that prediction because I'd like to take a point and turn the points personally. Yeah, I would as well. Right, we now head to our family top three. It's currently eight six to the boring belliums. But they have been caught up to within a race win.

A race win I'm considering a full first, second, third. streak and that of course is three points. Tommy, you look like you're getting ready, so why don't you go first? Okay, why not? I'll give my dad a call. Oh, what's he going to call you this week? What name will he call me this week? Hello, SpongeBob.

Does he know? Definitely message, freight. Hi, Dad, how are you? I'm all right, thank you, Freddie. Good stuff. I need your top three for the Italian Grand Prix, please. starting with P3. Well, just before, can I just congratulate you and Matt on your recent Dutch tour?

Obviously, very proud of you both, so I just wanted to get that in. 20 quids in the place. And for the top three, so Matt doesn't accuse me of being boring, I'm going to go a bit off track like Ferrari. And I'm going to go. Albon third and go with my heart rather than my head. Okay. Nice. And then...

Max... No. No. Yeah. If I'm going for the points like Matt does, but I'll just want to mix it up. So I will go max second. And no offense to Lando, but Piastri to win. So I'll go for the predictable McLauram.

tasty podium. There's a tasty podium. Okay. Thanks, Dad. Okay. All right. Cheers. All the best boys.

Bye. Bless him. That's a half point deduction, by the way, from you to try and steer his predictions in a different way. We will speak to the comments on that one. Absolutely crazy behavior from you. Right. Let's see if I, I know for a fact.

I know for a fact that Ellie is going to just cook for me and just go for the absolute strongest lineup. So let's see. Here we go. Two points behind. as well. I love why I'm calling and she's literally in the house. Person forwarded to voicemail. The person you're trying to reach is not available.

What? Try WhatsApp. Are you give you a WhatsApp call? Is it because you're ringing her on a phone and there's no signal? Or if you call on WhatsApp, it would be through W-Fi. I'll try. Hi there. I tried to call you on your normal sort of phone and that did not work. It went straight to voicemail.

But you are finally here. I'm so high it on, do you not disturb. Oh, charming. I mean, you're in the same house as me, so I'll let you off. That's a disqualification is from predictions. Tommy's apparently said you're disqualified, even though he tried to steer his dad in a different way for his predictions, which is crazy. Right, Mons, we are two behind, Elle, so please help me.

Third position. Oscar in third. All right, all right. I said you were going to go for the strongest line. Yes, Oscar. That's crazy for me. Okay, second position, to be fair, Tommy's dad literally put Albonne in third. So we've still got a better chance of that coming in.

Second? I'm putting Charles in second. Oh, right. Jesus Christ, you're more delusional than I am in this podcast. And first position. Lando. Okay, a Lando Charles Oscar podium. Interesting.

Not the strongest lineup I was hoping for, but strong enough. So stronger than Tommy's dad, that's for sure. Thank you. I'll speak to you later. I love you. Bye. Bye. I hope the I Lovey,

but got cut off in the disturbance and that's crazy, if not. Okay, wow, Oscar P3, Charles second. Shal is second. I thought that's going to ruin everything and that's going to be zero point. Yeah, yeah, I was, I nearly went to Cheryl second to be fair, so.

Did you? Okay, all right. I might regret it. Maybe the Oracle of all knowledge, Tom Bellingham is on to something. But, yeah, great from your dad. Really, really appreciate that. It was amazing. And she just texts me to apologize.

Oh, no, she texts me and says, I have rationale. It's just a... Okay. Back in up her prediction. I was like, Matt, shut the hell up. Has my dad messaged me to say, sorry? No, he hasn't.

I'm surprised I would have just messaged me being like, who's behind of the championship? Oh, wait, it's you. Don't say anything. So, because obviously Tommy is winning. So, all right, well, there you go. That is the predictions locked in. Always fun doing some family top three.

Big thanks to Elle and Tommy's dad for getting involved this week. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? I'm praying for a good Italian Grand Prix. last year was really, really good, wasn't it? It was beautiful. So more crazy strategy, please give us that again, Pirelli. I don't know what tyres they've bought, but hopefully they last three laps. Mate, it doesn't matter what they bring. They will all last 50 laps. Yeah, true. It doesn't matter if it's literally made of Play-Doh. But there you go. Cool. All right, looking forward to it.

We'll be live on Twitch and YouTube. If you're wondering, we'll have it fixed, locked in everything. the stream is going to work like a dream this weekend, I promise you. All right. So come and join us there, and we will see you very soon. Friday practice wrap up will be next. See you soon. Lots of that. Bye.

Bye. Oh, and that Ferrari is beautiful, by the way. Fair play Ferrari. That livery is beautiful. It's tasty. It's good. It's a good one. Whether it gets on a podium or not, we'll find out.

Hopefully it doesn't weigh the car down more. P1 is a stack production and part of the ACAST created network.