P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Japanese GP predictions

Episode Date: April 2, 2025

We've already had a driver change after just two races, so let's see how that affects our (and our families') predictions ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix this weekend!You can listen to an extended version of every Race Review podcast over on our Patreon! Sign up to also get every P1 episode ad-free, early access to live tickets and merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Race week, we're back. Third round of the season. Lots of chaos. Hopefully is going to unfold for the rest of this season. It's been pretty, pretty interesting, pretty busy, isn't it? Both on and off the track so far this season. Now, I know you yourself, Tommy, are going to be very excited.

We spoke about it in our last podcast about the fact of your goat, one of your favorites, one of four, I think. you currently support the grid. They're in the same team now. Yeah, that's true, actually. Where do your allegiance is live? But how are you feeling, mate? I'm looking forward to it.

Yeah, I can't believe we're starting the season only round three. We've had a driver change. We've had three different winners in the first three actual races. Yeah, lovely stuff. Lovely stuff indeed. So just to just to say, if I say anything that either doesn't resemble English or it just doesn't make sense, either one, I just don't know anything about Formula One, But two, more importantly, I feel like absolute arse.

So let's see how this unfolds. Tommy, you yourself as well have been struggling with your voice. Could you do one of your deep voice impressions? How was it? Well, it's actually better. I sent you a voice note because you asked me to your voice over the other day. And you could actually play it maybe. You might be able to hear how bad my voice was.

This is an exclusive. Bad or good. I mean, I would happily have an audio book. I really hope I said something. I don't know if it was saucy or not. Yeah, I can't remember what I said, see if it's PG or not. So this is my voice today. So voiceover might be a bit tricky, bro.

So I asked you to do a voiceover, and then Barry White came down on the phone. You know, when you listen to a podcast and you can, like, do 1.5 speed, but you can also do 0.5 speed. That was you? Unbelievable. Anyway, let's get into the predictions, where it is currently 75 to me. and actually before we get into it as well worth mentioning

that predictions will now be alternating so that if we pick the same one it's not always you that has to change Tommy we've read your feedback we've always read your comments and this is a I think a good tweak to continue this series so a good surprise

I have gone for Fernando Alonso yeah yeah he's gonna he's gonna finish because that's what he needs to do is finish the race and that is surprising for him in this 2025 season. Look, come on, Aston Martin don't actually look that horrendous. Lance Stroll has managed to haul a performance out

of that car. So once everything just slots into place for Fernando Alonzo, I think he'll do a good solid point score. So it's going to happen this weekend. Did you see actually with Fernando Alonzo that he's now, since his last win is exactly the half point of his career. So he's gone his entire previous part of his career since his last won a race

which is absolutely insane he's due a win so I hope you're right a win I mean a win would be good yeah I'll take a seventh for a good surprise

to bring this mate so yeah exactly so good surprise I've gone for Liam Lawson and I was actually thought you might have done the same thing

I decided against it because I wasn't going to go for cheap points like that Well, I'm not even... I wasn't going to go for two points, so I've gone for the guy that retired in the first two races. No, this isn't even a... Well, if he doesn't qualify P20, it's a point.

I actually think he's going to do a very good job. He is... I think he'll be a lot more... Well, it can't be much worse, but a lot more confident in that V-Cab. We know it's a good car. We know he's a good driver, despite what we've seen at the start of the season.

And he's also great around Suzuki and he's driven there a lot. He's done Super Formula. Of course, this is the first race of the season that he's actually driven at the track and he's going to be driving in a much more familiar car, which we know is good and probably a lot more predictable for him. So I'm expecting actually a genuinely really good job and not just cashing in a point for like a P-13. It's going to be interesting because it could go one of two ways.

Everyone thinks, ah, back to V-Carb. It's going to be so much better for him from day one of the 2025 season of him going back for Suzuki. But there is a small part of me that goes, my God, I still think there's a huge amount of pressure for him now after the demotion to showcase that he can do it. Because he's already taken, he almost had two lives and he's lost one of them going down to racing balls now. if he can't perform against Hadjar, then that will probably be his Formula One season and Formula One dream over come the end of it. I do agree, I think on your side,

it's more likely for it to happen that he will feel more familiar with the car, he'll be more predictable, but there is a small part of me that goes, for his sake, I hope he can perform to a reasonable level at least. Speaking of performing, well, or drivers we don't think are going to perform.

A big flop, Tommy. I have gone for Kimmy Antonelli and another well I don't want this one to come true for obvious reasons but I have gone for Kimmy Antonelli had a great start to the season of course

I think his performances and where he's delivered and the points that he's picked up Mercedes will have been absolutely buzzing with those results however we go go into a tricky circuit like Suzuki. He is a driver that pushes it to the absolute limit.

And you get punished for that. Exactly. And look, we've seen even at every other circuit, quite a few moments of him kind of skating over the curbs and things like that. And Japan can punish you for that. So I just feel like it could be a tricky weekend

for Kimi at Antonelli as a rookie. and one that I'm not sure he's ever driven at in his career either. Okay. You're not believing in your boy, Kimmy. We will see. I did enjoy thoroughly a clip to come out from him where he said he stole someone's credit card and went on a purchasing screen.

I think it was from The Fast and the Curious. A big shout out to those guys. Yeah, they interviewed him. And he was talking about him and Ollie Bearman, I think stealing his personal trainer's card or something and buying loads of random stuff on it. Anyway, that's what just popped into my mind. Maybe he's already a big flop after that story coming out.

But anyway, my big flop. Prison. Breaking the law. Well, that would certainly be a flop if that was the case. My big flop is Max Verstappen. I think he's, I think he's outperformed that car so far this year. And we come to a track very downforce. heavy, relying on a car to be decently built and have good predictable features,

slight mistakes, as you've mentioned, Tommy, can be punished. And Max, I think at some point this year is going to have to overdrive that car, and I think he probably already is, but that extra half a percent that might end up with something obviously not going particularly well, him getting beats in the gravel, whatever it might be. I just feel as though other teams could well be faster than Red Bull and actually deliver on the fact that they're faster, rather than just Max is in the fourth fastest car,

but still finishing second. No, it's time. It's time, guys, to step up, and I think it's going to be a big flop for Max. How do you take that one? I hope your biggest flops go, as they have done so far. Yeah, they have gone terribly so far this year.

I've gone for a giant of Formula One, so it can only go wrong. It might be three from three that I mess up. So let's move on. This one absolutely is going to be nailed on. Pole position! I feel like my voice is going as I'm doing this podcast. So let's see if I make it to the end.

My poll position is, Charlerlercler. We're so back, baby. We're so back. We're so back. We're so back. Charle-le-le-le- Yeah. It's time for Ferrari and Charles to stop breaking my heart.

My achy-breaky heart. That's such an old reference. Charles LeCleur is getting pole position at the Japanese Grand Prix. I think Ferrari, just like they said they hadn't showed their hand, coming into China and then got a double disqualification, there's something. There's something that needs to be unlocked in that car, and I think Charles is going to do it. He needs to, because Hamilton won the sprint,

or if you want to go down another route, that has been helping my sort of recovery going into the first round of the season, the Japanese Grand Prix, you see where I'm going with that. Yeah. It's a new season, Charlotte-Claupeau. So they're going to take both M plates off, and he's going to go for poll this time. No, because that would that would balance the car up again. Oh, yeah, true.

We need it to be lopsided like it was in China. And add an extra kilo and then they'll be really quick and legal. Okay, all right, didn't need to. It's fine. You could just leave, could just left it at the end plate. But yes, I think, you know, Charles could have won China with one kilogram more and an end plate. Pole position.

I have gone for. Lando Norris. Oh, I thought, The way that you hyped that made it sound like you were about to pop Niko Holkeberg on pole. I genuinely thought. No, I'm going for, I'm going for Lando. Boring Bellingham, that's what they call him. I know, you can tell I'm 5-7 down.

Yeah, true. And you've got some buffer to go for Charlotte Clare. No, I'm going to go for Lando. I do, and we'll see you later, think that McLaren are going to be. very good. Although there is a sprinkling of rain around maybe. Again, I mean, what a way to start the season if we have another wet race. That would be absolutely insane. Right now, Sunday, cloudy with brief rain is a current forecast. Oh, sign me up. Goodness gracious me. Okay, well, Land a Norris pole. Yeah, well done. Hope you're happy with the money, Jane. Let's go to our top

three. So P3, I have gone for Oscar. P. Astrid. Dun, dun, dun, putting a McLaren in P3. Yep, of course, the winner last time out, had a very good start to the season. But, look, I think it's going to be, I think McLaren is still going to be very good,

but the form, you know, I think it's just going to have one of those weekends where still a solid, like a podium is certainly nothing to be sniffed at, but I don't think he's going to take the dub this time. Okay, no dub for Oscar. My third place and therefore no dub as well goes to Lewis Hamilton. Ferrari are back, guys.

Going for Ferrari. In my visions, it's a McLaren versus Ferrari fight at the front. Okay. Those visions are slightly clouded by what could potentially be flu over the next few days. but you know when you have sort of like fever dreams that's when the most crazy thing's going to happen in your brain and it might be a Ferrari W is on the horizon but third place for Lewis Hamilton

let's get a second I've steaded the ship slightly I've gone for Lando Norris I've steadied the ship there Lando's going to be in the mix he's going to score a podium McLaren is still going to be very quick but I didn't go for the P1 okay so P2 I have gone four

Max for Stappan Whether I'll regret that Based on your big flop We'll see But I am the kind of opposite side to think that yes I do think the Red Bull Is gonna

You know It's not going to be an easy car to drive again However I think Max does excel at Suzuki And we'll be able to kind of Get the best out of it and yeah that's why I've put him P2 which would again kind of if that did happen would continue a kind of surprisingly strong start to the year

despite the machinery he's got. Certainly would. Let's go to first place. P1. I've gone four. Land in Norris. So I predicted him last time to win. He did not. But this time I'm going for it. It's McLaren 1-3, max in the middle. And I think Lando is going to have a really good weekend.

And even, you know, with a sprinkling of rain, even if that does happen, we saw what he did in Australia. So I think he's going to take the W. Okay. Lando, NOSP 1 for Tommy. My first place is Yuki-Sinoda. Like, come on, what's then? Like, let's just, let's just lock it in.

No, I'm not locking that in. That was a lie. That was a joke. But can you, can, that was like fever dream pounds of million. Can you imagine? Can you imagine if that happened? Yuki, first race for Red Bull, won the race somehow. In Japan, that would just.

Max Verstappen on fraud watch. Yeah. Max Verstappen gets biggest flop. Career questioned. Yuki Snowder is the, is he the new goat? I thought we must need, we definitely need to put some of the game in there. No, it's Charlotte Claire. Okay.

Wow. Got a two-point buffer. I can have a bit of fun. At this point, I'm just parading around. When you've played Charlon Pohl, I was like, so is he dropping back completely off the podium or is he winning? Can't really overtake around, Suzuki. So Charlotte gets pole. Shal wins.

It's basically Monaco, but without walls and gravel. But yes, I've gone for Charlotte-Cleppy one, mainly because I'm completely and utterly delusional and I don't actually think with any brain logic that this is going to happen. But predictions are for fun. and these are fun so until they don't come true and then obviously none of it's fun and I don't want to play anymore

but that is it I've gone for P1 locked in Ferrari back let's go right it's family prediction time Tommy the Bellingham's are unfortunately leading to 1 however well I was about to say I feel confident about making

a few points up this week but I'm calling my sister so that is unlikely to produce any points But let's see. I'm going to ring her now. Apparently she's on standby. Apparently.

Hello, Georgina. Welcome to the P1 podcast. Could you just be professional or like at least just normal for two minutes? That would be fantastic. What do you want? What do I want? Well, you know what I want because I gave you a heads up prior to calling. I need your top three.

So in third place, please, for the Japanese Grand Prix is... Max for Stefan. In second position? Lewis Hamilton. And in first position, The underdog. Lando Norris. How is Lando Norris an underdog?

Because he's an interactive male, but he is the underdog. Remind me to never call you ever again. How does someone being attractive make them an underdog, Degena? because he's just like a sweet guy isn't it? All right, we're going to cut it there. Thank you so much, Regina.

I appreciate you scoring me zero points probably. But no, Lando win. That's not too far out the realm of the possibility, but you didn't go for Charlotte Closer. Screw you, take care. Love you lots, and I'll see you later. Bye. Wow.

I was worried where that was going when she said, Lewis Hamilton, and then said the underdog, I was like, oh no, here we go. I think it was going to be Charles Lander. I really did. I thought she was just going to. to pick someone like Valtrey Bottas or something without knowing that he's even racing anymore. No, no, she's in a research. She did three current Formula One drivers. I'm impressed.

Goes completely against how I'm thinking this weekend's going to unfold in certain areas, but it's fine. It's not fine. She's caused no point. She's getting an earful. Tommy, over to you. Okay, I'm going to call my wife, because I was going to call my sister, but she's not around, which I will definitely do that at some point, because I generally don't think she could name three Formula One driver so it'd be quite funny. That could get me back in the championship. That could Michael Massey it right there. Yeah, exactly.

When we need the Michael Massey moment, that's when I call my sister if I'm ahead. Right, so I'm going to give my wife a call. Very quiet. She's literally in the house. I hope she answers. Hello. Hello, wife. How are you?

I spoke to you two minutes ago because you're literally downstairs. I need your top three for the Japanese Grand Prix, please, starting with third. Okay. So I saw it might rain, maybe. Oh, she's looked at a forecast. Maybe, which means it's probably not. So I'm going to go Max P3. Okay.

Interesting. Same as Matt's sister so far. P2. Okay. George. Okay, George Russell. P2. And P1.

Lando, I think. Okay. So two of the three are the same. How? Okay, well, we don't need to massy it because you guys are doing it for us. So thanks very much. And, well, no Oscar Pastry, Savage, from either family member. Well, I didn't want to predict what I wanted to happen.

Okay, fair enough. Right, thank you very much. She's anti-jyncing. Yeah, she's anti-gyncing. Love you, bye. Love you, too. Okay, there we go. Okay, so interesting.

I can't believe that. Two of the three are the same. That's crazy. how I see that occurring right now is Katie's downstairs. She's dialed into this call. She's heard what my sister has said. And you're at your goal hanging right now. You're one clear and you're like,

just part the bus. That's all you're doing. You're putting five at the back. You're going for one different prediction. It's disgusting. I'll be honest. When we got to P2 and there was still no McLaren, I was like, oh no.

I know what's going on here. So the only difference is P2. Okay. All right. Well, let's see how it unfolds. Lewis versus George. Here we go. Okay.

one crazy prediction now. It's going along the same lines as my big flop. Still odd to say out loud. Racing Bulls score more points than Red Bull. Oh. Absolute cinema. Now I don't know how that's going to happen. It's going to have to require a solid Lawson performance

and a very solid Hajar performance and Red Bull to be shocking. Could I have an additional crazy prediction just for fun that says Max Verstappen is promoted to V-Carb next race? Is that possible? He's driving that they've obviously gone for the White Bull to maybe unlock some of that V-car performance, maybe.

That car does look very nice to be fair. It does. It looks very, very cool. Whether it could be quick is another matter. I bet they're probably hoping it is like the V-Cab, to be honest. Do you remember when Mercedes did their special livery in Germany? That went terribly wrong. So maybe my racing ball score more points than Red Bull would equate to something similar to that.

Interesting. So my one crazy prediction is that the first non-McClaren is over half a second off pole. Okay. So over half a second off pole. Why are you even putting that into the universe, Tommy? Well, I hope I'm wrong. Do you want a podcast to exist come halfway through the season? Well, look, maybe Charlotte Claire just absolutely dominates and it will bore that.

Yeah, Charles won't pull by half a second. and then we're not complaining. I just think this track is just so well suited. It's been a lot closer, and I don't think, you know, I'm doing this prediction, but jokes aside, it's been a lot closer than I expected it was going to be,

and I don't think McLaren have had a far and away advantage that, particularly in the race, that we thought they might have. But on this circuit, particularly if we get a dry qualifying around Suzuki, which is just one of the way, of those circuits that I think was made for McLaren even last year before they had, you know, this mighty car is going to, I think, favour them even more. So I think they'll be so rapid

around here. And that's why I've gone for the nearest kind of the highest placing on McLaren to be half second off. So, but you still think Max will be Oscar in the race despite said qualifying advantage or you're spreading your eggs, one or the other. Maybe. Okay, let's go to our Patreon prediction if you're new to our prediction series or if you've cut that caught this is your first episode of the season. We pick out one Patreon prediction from our Discord and you just need to be part of the Patreon to be able to submit and you can also get ad-free viewing, exclusive access to new tickets and you can be part of the Discord and you can get basically lots of wonderful perks and it supports me and Tommy very greatly. So lots of love for those of you

that have joined already. Tommy, what's your Patreon prediction? my patron prediction is from Katie Stiles and it's back on that V-cab pipe train Lawson out-qualifies both Ferraris I'm not on the Ferrari hype train yeah If Lawson's on pole and Ferrari second and third then I don't mind it I don't mind it at all

that's the only reality where I'm okay with that so what a reality where Lawson gets demoted to the V-Cub and then gets pole that would be quite something. Then Max would be in that car for Bahrain. For sure. My Patreon prediction is from Royal Ted.

One team has a double DNF. That's what I've gone for? Okay. Don't you eye roll me? What were you eye rolling? No, I was just like, whether that's... No, because Ferrari's a DSQ technically, isn't it?

Yeah. So, interesting. A lot of crazy predictions out there. We have one final bonus prediction which is where does Yuki Sonoda qualify? And this will be for a point. However, Tommy, if we're both wrong, what happens? Is it closest?

Well, should we do? Closest gets a point if you get it bang on, you get two points. Jesus. Are we going to just throw a little bit? Now we're just going to math it up then, aren't we? Okay, so if we'll go for 11, statistically that's the best. We did. I think we did, I think we maybe made this prediction at the end of the thing.

But now's our chance that now we've got to lock it in for points. Now we've got to lock it in for points. Now that we've thought about it and still going with 12th. Okay. I'm going to go full delusion and go. Oh my God. Ninth. That's not even that deletion.

Sorry. Full delusion is ninth and a rebel. Okay. What a crazy. What, like, as we're on the subject of Yuki, what a mad reality. Imagine saying, three years ago that if you said that a driver would be promoted from Alphatari, whatever they want to be called, Toro or so back in the day, to the Red Bull team.

And genuinely, it's like a 50-50 split between who's going to qualify better, the driver that's been demoted or the new driver going into Red Bull. It genuinely feels like it's a flip of the coin of who's going to do better. It could go either way. It could go either way. I, yeah, to be honest, that 12th might sound slanderous. I don't think it is. I think if Yuki is 12th or higher, he's done a decent job considering how much.

Yeah, how much Lawson has struggled. So, fingers crossed for Yuki. He does very well this weekend. It's slightly stacked against him with the fact that he's jumping in that car straight away, but we will see and it will make Friday practice at least quite interesting. So it's a look forward to our wrap up there. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? final thoughts

I just bring on some more racing when we have a when we have back to back races and then a week out it feels so long now I know so weird

and then we got a triple header on the house I know it's mad to think now now it's I want one every week without fail more

more can't wait for it everybody thank you will be live on YouTube and Twitch as always and we'll see you very soon

lots of love take care bye bye My chore is to have a vitamin C tablet because man is struggling out here. But thankfully, we've got a couple of days to hopefully get over whatever the hell is going on. And we'll be back for a Friday. Tommy, what's your chore?

Well, I've taken some vitamin C tablet. So I'll say, have a little lempsip as well. Oh, lempsip. That would be unbelievable. I'm going to bed and it's not even 9 o'clock. That's crazy. All right, bye. Bye.

You just wave to audio listeners crazy. Bye. P1 is a stack production and part of the ACAST creator network.