P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Mexico City GP predictions

Episode Date: October 23, 2025

Join us for a chaotic Predictions episode that features some of the most outrageous top three shouts we've heard in a good while! But how will the Championship look after another crucial weekend? The Delusion Tour is only a few weeks away! We're heading to North America in November and there are still a few tickets available - click here to grab yours: tix.to/p1liveYou can listen to an extended version of every Race Review episode over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Predictions. We are here once again to share our delusion with you all. P1 Live Delusion Tour tickets are available, but very, very nearly not because we are literally going to the North America in less than a few days. It's coming. Okay, flights are book. We can't wait to see you. Tommy, I'm seeing you right now on my screen. Predictions.

Five races to go. Not a sprint weekend this time. can't gain a massive like 33 points this time. It's only going to be 25 on offer. How are we feeling? Nervous. Very, very nervous. As you mentioned in the last race review, I could not even barely watch the race. I was so nervous. So imagine what it's like as it gets more and more extreme. So we are going to be doing a watch along. It will just be me clearly. Even though Tommy will be there, sat there. He won't actually be watching along because they're like, oh, I'm so nervous. Max is winning by 40 seconds. Just breathing into a paper bag. Yeah, exactly. So look, just get you.

So this is the Tom Bellingham of normal for the next five races and two sprints. I can't wait for it. Tommy, I think you kind of need to explain what you're wearing. That would be a good start. You can't just sit there and just, I know you've got used to it now,

but I don't think anyone else has got used to the but daddy, I love him, Max Rastap and T-shirt. Yeah, so I saw this online and I jokingly, I think it's after Singapore. So 63 point gap, I sent it to you. I've got the screenshot, I'll share it, and said if it gets to 40 points, I will buy this t-shirt and you are like, oh my God, yes, please.

And literally the very next race it goes to 40 points exactly, like, if that's not meant to be. Did you tempt fate, though? Because I'm pretty sure you said under 40. Oh, did I? Okay. So maybe it's much for something. Maybe I'm cursing it. Oh, dear, oh dear.

It is currently 47 apiece. And I love, by the way, we have a sheet that has like a rough structure of what we're going to talk about. You've kept it as it's currently 47 47 to Tommy. Well, yeah, countback. On countback, are you winning? Sorry, what is the count back? If we end up drawing at the end of the year, count all the points.

What is count back? I saw that I got them first. I don't know. No, I didn't actually, did I? No, that doesn't even work. I don't know how we'd do it. Flip a coin. Maybe the countback is,

I have to also wear an embarrassing Charle-Claher t-shirt and then the winner of predictions is whoever travels the farthest in it in public. Can you imagine if we get to this point, by the way and it's say it's Abu Dhabi and we're level on points like the championship will be of course with all three of them we go into that final race and maybe we need to do like the bonus prediction of like guess the lap time or something that's like the tie breaker of the predictions

guest not a chance if anyone's been to a P1 live show there is zero chance that I am doing guest a lap time because he nearly did it at that 1997 hereth qualifying session that you got almost to the decimal place. Yeah, jog on, jog on. So we'll figure that one out. But there is a genuine possibility and I can't quite believe it. Let's head to a good surprise.

Is it me to go first, Tommy? It is, yeah. It is. Okay, all right, my good surprise for this weekend, I'm flying straight through this loophole. Hopefully it is a loophole. Oscar Piashy. Oh, for God's saying.

Get on that podium, my friend. And then that is a good surprise. And Tommy can, I knew, I knew that you would have Oscar Piaastri there because you know exactly what I do in the fact that he has not had a podium in a little while. And if he ends up P3, that is a good surprise for him. Even if he loses points in the championship, back on the podium, I'll be taking one of those. Thank you very much. Okay.

So, yeah, I was going to go for Oscar Piastri because, yeah, it just seems like an easy dub because surely he's got to turn his form around. But even if, you know, he's beaten by the other two and gets on the podium, it's still arguably a good surprise. because he's not been on the podium for a while. So I am looking through the grid right now. And I am going to go for George Russell. Why not? I swear he is literally your backup for everything. It doesn't matter what it is.

George Russell is your backup. Oh, I nearly went. Do you think about him when you sleep? Maybe, apparently. I'm going to go for George Russell. Yeah. I was just looking through the order and I was just thinking, who could surprise?

and I was nearly going to go for one of the Ferrari drivers, but they had a pretty good race, and George was down in six. So let's go for... Only as good as your last race. That's what we're going. Well, exactly. Forget Singapore when he literally won. Yeah, he actually won the race.

That's great. I'm going to go for George. Okay, do you. George Russell locked in. Let's head to a big flop. Big flop I have gone for. Yuki Sonoda. And I think this is more the fact that obviously,

I think he was flattered by the actual result of the standing. and I think the kind of fortune of the turn one chaos and stuff in the sprint also flattered him quite somewhat whether you know I'm not not disregarding the result completely but I think his kind of result was better than his actual performance so I don't think he's necessarily like turned around his season or anything and yeah I'm going for yuki obviously hope I'm wrong hope he continues that form because you know clearly the Red Bulls second in the constructors. That's what I'm really rooting for here in this whole championship scenario. Yeah, I mean, my sort of thoughts here is, wow, it's going to have to be something quite drastically bad. 53 seconds off. Last time I checked the predictions as much as we talk in jest about, oh, it's the last race they did this. So therefore, it's usually a little bit more than that. But actually, if you look at his points scoring. Says the guy that I'll skip yastri and hope he gets a podium.

He's not had a podium in the last three, four. So that's poor runner form in my opinion. P. Oikisunoda. If you do, get the sprint as well. So, where did you? In fact,

I'm looking at it right now. Okay. And to be fair, you can, you can cash this in if he has a terrible race, of course. And it's work,

it's not working in your favour if we like patterns, okay, because Hungary, no points. Netherlands, points. Italy, no points. Azerbaijan, points.

Singapore, no points. USA points. And now we head to Mexico. So if he continues a streak, then you've, well, you might get it right,

but it depends. If he finishes 11th, there's no chance there's a big flop. So whatever. Right. Okay. So Yuki Snowdit is locked in for your big flop.

For mine, Olly Beerman. He scored points in the last one. So if he doesn't in this one, then that's crazy. That is crazy. I nearly went for Olly Beerman as well. Did you? I was really considering it.

We could have had the same predictions in the first too. I've gone for Olly Beerman. As we know with the big flop, I just have a feeling. And to be fair, actually, if this comes in, I want to wholeheartedly apologize to Olly Beerman and his entire family because that might well mean he's involved in some kind of

dodgy incident that gets him a penalty and therefore he's disqualified for the next, not disqualified, banned for the next race. That would be a true big flop coming in if Bearman genuinely can't race in the next one because of me. So sorry Olly in advance, but that is what I'm going for. I'll take the point all the same. Let's head to pole position. My poll position. Daddy, I love him. It's Max Verstappen. If you're listening, on audio, Tommy's wearing a butt daddy, I love him, or if in YouTube they've edited it in a way that we haven't explained. But in Venice, I do love him currently because I am a newly recruited Max Verstappen fan to hopefully see something crazy happen at the end of this championship. Max Verstappen's getting pole position, the form he is currently in.

And Mexico, barring last year, of course, is a little bit of an outlier when it comes to his performances in Mexico. he's won around here five times. So I'm back in Max. I didn't go for Max this happens. I don't need to change it. I have gone for Lando Norris. I think it's going to be an incredibly close qualifying session. I think between the top three contenders.

I'm unsure whether Max will do it again. He's obviously an amazing form. It is Mexico. He's really good at. But we do know that, you know, it's the nature of that circuit. had a surprise last time out with the Ferrari pole position, of course. But yeah, I'm going for Philando Norris. He's, of course, had some good form recently.

It was very close to getting pole position, of course, in, sorry, the sprint pole position is incredibly close. So yeah, I'll go for Landau. Ooh, interesting stuff. Who is going to finish in third place for the main race? I am going to go for Oscar Piastri in P3. and I think Matt's probably about to change it because he obviously had the same idea as me

for good surprise. I almost thought about going for like a Piastri win and thinking that like he has to turn his form around maybe it's not as bad as it's like kind of looked in the last race. But as we mentioned kind of like looking through things it's maybe not one of his favourable circuits although he has only been there twice because he's a very new driver.

But yeah, I think Piastri will return to form with a podium. But I think he's kind of got to rebuild his confidence before he goes for the big dub. OK-dokey. So, yes, I did have Oscar Piastri in third position. So instead, I'm going to substitute him out and put Charlecler in third position. I've not said his name for a while in a predictions episode.

I don't think I have anyway. I probably do. I just don't notice it. it comes so naturally to me. But Charlotte Claire's third, and you reminded me so well, of course, Ferrari were very strong around here. And Carlos Sines was a beast.

So Ferrari, off the back of the last Ferrari winner, of course. So I'd remind you about that. So can we edit that? Editors that are taking notes. Thank you so much. Didn't need reminding of that one. Complete another bleep. Charlotte Claire P3.

I don't think that's actually out of the realms of possibility after a pretty good weekend. in Austin. Of course, very different circuit, Mexico. Outitude is, we're at our highest, aren't we, of the entire calendar, which will potentially change a little bit of the pecking order. Maybe we will see. It's the third place, Charlotte. I feel quite good about that actually now, so screw you, Tommy, for making me change. But also, thank you. Second position. I am going to lock in. This is annoying because who do I go for? Because you get first dibs on first. Hmm

Second position I am going to go for Max Verstappen Oh for God's sake Okay I got for Max for Stappen because I was going to put him first But I felt like you might have put him first

And therefore I was scared No it doesn't matter now I've locked it in I can't you know This is the whole beauty of predictions I was trying to second guess What you might have gone for for first And if you'd gone for Max first

And I got for someone else second Then I would have been scuppered So this is the beauty of predictions right now, and I have gone for Max Verstappen's second position, even if I thought he was going to win. So it's a challenge failed successfully because I had Max Verstappen in second, so now I can't go for him in second. Oh, my pessimistic brain is like, I can't put him first. I don't want to jinx him. Oh, screw it. Land in RSP, too. Okay. Yeah, I'm risking it all.

I've got the T-shirt and I've got to really, haven't I? Landon R's P2. This could so drastically backfire on me because I had Lando P2 and Max First. And if I've just given you two points, I'm going to be absolutely devastated. First position, Tommy. First position, I go for Max Verstappen then. The form guide suggests he'll be strong here again. Obviously, I had him in P2.

I don't think Red Bull will be as strong as they have been. You know, Mexico was always that race where Max won because he didn't have the kind of, obviously, through great talent, of course, as well, but he didn't have that engine power of like the Merks and he'd challenge them and would win there. Whereas now, if anything, those kind of quicker high-powered tracks are the ones that actually suit the Red Ball, which is why I wasn't so keen on going for Max, but you've forced my hand and you've forced my hand into predicting Russell for the win last time out. And he was six. So I'm not going to, I'm not going to get for Russell again. So looking forward to him winning.

But then at least I'm going to surprise. That would be quite suddenly, wouldn't it? Okay. In first position, I'm going to lock in Lando Norris. Not the worst for the championship. If my top three comes in that, in that order, Max still closes in. And it's not the end of the world.

I think that I feel very happy with this as a choice. Lando hasn't won since, when's the last time he won? It was pre-summer break. Would it have been hungry? Yeah, Hungary, surely. Hungary. So it's been a while for Lando since his last victory. Which is mad that we're kind of constantly saying like, look, he's got really good form,

but it's good consistent form rather than, yeah, it was Hungary his last win. Yeah. Third of August, a long time ago. Yeah, that is crazy to think, isn't it, when we believe that McLaren are, you know, this team that are the fastest and whatnot. And yeah, he's not won in five races or six, actually, you obviously include Hungary where he won. Second, seventh, third and second was the last four.

And it's weird, you say consistent, you look at that as a form. Is that a championship winning form? But then you look at Oscar Piastri, who has a much worse run of form. And you have Max who was so far behind, but winning everything. George dropping in a win as well. It's turning into a beautiful season. It really is.

But I'm happy with a Lando P1 here. It was difficult between Lando and Max for me, even though I am obviously on the max hype. and I'm glad that I've been able to make, I don't know, I'll see if I'm glad that I've made you change because I may well have just given you two points in the championship and I'll stop trying to second guess what you're going to go for. Let's head to one crazy prediction.

So my one crazy prediction is that track limits affects one of the top three in the championship. So that can be either, and I'm going to be very clear with what I'm saying, so it could either affect an important. Q3 lap or it's a penalty in the race. Okay, interesting. Yeah, I want it to mix it up.

Do a bit different because usually it's no yellow flags or three people crash. This one is a bit more specific and keeps me in it until the last lap of the race. Well, I'm glad that sometimes we disagree on things because you said I want to mix it up. So I've gone for all McLaren pit stops are under three seconds. Again. There's no rules against. It's true. I mean, I think, what, two seasons ago, I went for Lance Strohm out qualifies for nine times.

About six races in a row. Okay. And technically, he still hasn't. We're still waiting on that to come in. So if you'd gone for it 30 times in a row, you'd have been 10 times in a row, which is quite a mad thing to think about. Okay, you've gone for the same prediction as last time. Interesting. Can't wait for any reason?

Because surely they've got to do two bits on in a row. You sound like me in Ferrari. That's crazy. Surely they'll win this year. All right. Let's head to our Patreon. prediction. If you're part of the P1 Patreon, you can submit a wonderful prediction for us to choose, as well as ad-free listening and lots of other benefits for as little as I was literally working out about 30 p-n episode, if that's the amount that we're churning out. So if you want to come and support myself and Tommy and P-1 Venture, we would love to have you on board. Patreon.com for slash Matt P-1 Tommy. That wasn't even supposed to be a little sort of segue ad there, but I thought it was worth mentioning. Right, Tommy, what's your Patreon prediction? It is actually strangely not too dissimilar to what you were kind of thinking here.

I have gone for Captain Oves and they have put at least two championship contenders have some sort of incident with each other on lap one. So either a crash contact being pushed off. But lap one. Lap one. It has to be lap one. Because of course it's a very tight turn one, isn't it? It's a tricky section.

you do normally see people bailing off onto the grass and all sorts. So, yeah, are the title rivals going to be kind of going wheel to wheel into term one? That'd be quite exciting. You can definitely create like a good bingo card for Mexico as well of like altitude. Third place is the best place to qualify. Like, just think about the amount of times you might hear that in the broadcast because I feel like it might well come up quite a lot. The stadium section is amazing.

Oh, my God, stadium section. Okay, my Patreon prediction is Alan Enderpe. Someone ignores team orders. Make of that what you will. Okay. It would well be... Colapinto again. Yeah, good well be called for 19.

Come on, Franco. Get me another point. Love it. Right, we now head to family top three. It's currently 10, 9 to the boring Bellingham's. And now that, you know, I'm still close. We, I should say we, the Gallagher's are close. And look, Tommy, I know that sometimes.

you do like a fun one, right? I think you had Frank do one at one point or maybe it was grace. I've decided that I should also throw in an interesting one. I think you should because I was five one ahead at one point. Yeah, and to make it a little bit more fair, I'm not fielding a dog,

but I'm folding someone that has as much formal one knowledge as that. My sister, who has not been in for a while, and I'm very concerned about what she's going to say. I'm pretty sure. Glad we're not live. I'm pretty sure she said Waguan at the start of her last phone call. So let's see if she even picks up.

She said she would. Very concerned. Glad we're not live. Let's see what she says. Waguan. Or just not answer, maybe. Oh, wow. A very different introduction.

Hello, Georgina. How are you? I'm very well, thank you. We'll have a catch-up at another point. We're on the P1 podcast. Please do not swear. Disappointed you didn't start with. WUG1. Right. So, can you please give me your third position for, which race is it,

Jadina, actually, out of interest? Do you know? Out of interest, I'm in a professional setting because I'm at work, so that's why I said hello. Okay, my question wasn't that. My question was, do you know which race it is? I don't, I don't care. Let's get to cut to the chase. Third place, third place, Alonso. Yes. For God's sake, Jogina, we're 10-9 behind. Why have you done Fernando Alonzo's third? Maybe I will get Frank to do that.

Right, okay. Third place, Fernando Alonzo. Cheers, mate. Who's finishing in second? Second place is going to be Max Verstappen. All right, better. Same as yours. Better.

I enjoy that one. That's what I went for as well. And first place, please. Hamilton's going to go Hamilton. I could just feel it. Charles Lecler. Oh, okay. A Lecler.

Vastappan Alonzo podium. Thank you so much, Regina. I appreciate your insight and have a good rest of your day at work. Was it good? Third is absolutely an abomination, but the other two are okay, I guess. All right, thanks, mate. Love you. Bye.

Wow. That was something. I wondered where that was going after third place. I won't lie to you. Yeah, yeah. I mean, that would be good for the championship. Yeah, that would be very good for the championship. You even said to me, didn't you, when we were,

were out in Austin, I think we were coming back and we were talking a little bit about like, oh, you know, what could happen in Mexico, that you would allow a Charlotte-Clair first if Max finishes second and the McLaren's aren't on the podium. Yeah, true. So we'll find out. Right, I'm going to give my mum a call. I don't think she's going to say Waguan when she answers, but you never know. I hope so.

That would be something, wouldn't it? Hello, Mom. Hi, yeah, I'm good. Are you ready for your top three? Oh, it's so difficult now. I know. Well, or is it? You mentioned about your little crochet thing and how you wanted less orange on there because it was just dominated by orange. Now it's all blue. Stop steering and let's have to get third place. Okay. So can we get P3 please? P3, Pastri. Okay. P2. Lando. And P1. Max.

Boring bear. Barrington. Borg. That is my, that is exactly the same as mine. Is it? Yeah, yeah. Oh, wow. Matt, scheming that you've gone for a really normal prediction, forgetting that Dad literally went for Hamilton last time, and I've got literally Frank to do two of them and Grace to do two of them, just so he can catch up.

But his sister's gone for Alonzo third, so we might be doing it. I was tempted. I was tempted to go for Russell. There's obviously somewhere near. Yeah, miss out piastri all together. Oh. I know. All right. Thanks, ma'am. Fingers crossed. We need to get back in the lead because it's too close.

In the lead, you are in the lead. I know. Extend the lead. It's not comfortable anymore. All right. Bye, ma'am. All right then. See you. Bye. Bye. Wow, there we go. So I'm happy about that. It's just my prediction. It's literally my top threat. That's crazy. So you are all in.

All or nothing. Yeah. Go for the turn one dive bomb and hope for the best. Goodness gracious me. Well, don't pretend. that that's what you wanted to go for. Yeah, true. I didn't want to go for it. I forced you into that.

But thank you to my sister as well. I want to apologize that I said about her wheel knowledge. She did put at least one driver in there that might have a chance of a podium. And to be fair, I put Charlotte Clare on the podium as well, but she went for first, which I will absolutely take. And that is a wild predictions episode. It has to be said, but a fun one

all the same. We will be live on Twitch and YouTube, Matt P1, Tommy, for all of the competitive sessions this weekend. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? Final thoughts? are, I really will sacrifice and sorry, sorry, mom and dad, but the family top three for Georgina to be right and it's an Alonzo podium and Max, Max on there and not the McLarence for the championship.

To be fair. I'll take it. Yeah. G's top three, sign me up. That's a great race right there. Thank you, everybody. We'll see you very soon. I'll love to care.

Bye. Bye. P1 is a Stack production and part of the A-Card. created network.