P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Qatar GP predictions

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

We're down to the final two races of the season, with three drivers jostling for the Championship. So, we're here to answer the question on everyone's lips: who has Tommy's dad picked in today's crucial Family Top Three selections? Please vote for us in the Autosport Awards 2026! https://www.autosport.com/awards-voting/You can listen to an extended version of every Race Review episode over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Penultimate F1 race weekend. We have a sprint weekend coming up and we have three drivers in with a shout of the Formula One World Championship. Lando Norris. Max Verstappen. Do you hear that Tommy? Max Verstappen I don't I feel sick

and Oscar Piastri Tommy how are we feeling ahead of this weekend where we could have a three-way fight into Abu Dhabi or we could have a brand new world champion

I yeah it's going to be one of those moments where we know if we're going to get well we literally will know either it's going to be the champion is crowned or we're getting a title finale for the first time since

2021 and that went well didn't it um so yeah we i just you reading that out then just bought all the like butterflies and nerves back even and you know it's only just the start of the week crazy absolutely crazy ready for some more butterflies Tommy you're currently leading the predictions championship by three points it's 55 52 to is it three points or four point it's three points yeah we both scored four we both scored four we both scored four So it's a three-point gap. I can tell you now, I've locked in for this one. So it's a sprint weekend, as I mentioned,

which means even more predictions. Tommy, over to you. Good surprise. Good surprise. I'm going for Oscar Piastri. I knew you were going to go for him as well. Oh, we love to see it. Yeah.

the rules be ruling things i want to say to you right now all cannot be on the podcast look there's there's many different reasons behind this one oscar piastri is good at katar two mclaren are good at katar three he can't be off the podium every race um yeah he's of course been on a really poor rudder form he's not scored podiums and things and oscar He has to turn his form around at some point. And, you know, this would be an amazing race to do it. It's a trek he goes well at. It's a style of circuit that he's been strong at throughout this year.

Of course, we all know that it's not gone as well as it had at the start of the year. But, yeah, need I say more, Oscar Piastri. Yes, need you say more. Say much more because quite clearly by the fact I stood up and walked away from my computer, I was going to go for good surprise, Oscar Piastri, because it makes absolute sense what you're saying, Tommy. So that's annoying. So instead, my good surprise is Charlecler.

You didn't use the George Russell back on. No, no, no, no, no. George can sit on the bench this week. I've gone for Charlerclair. Let's not forget. Charlotte Claire finished second last time out. We were here in Qatar. And I've written Ferrari off massively going into the last two races of the season,

which means they've locked in. They've heard that I've written them off. And they've gone, well, watch this, Matt. So I'm not saying that Charlotte-Clau's going to win the race. I don't think I'll need that in order for it to be a good surprise. I don't think we're expecting Ferrari to be particularly good this weekend. So just a solid point's finish. And I'll take the point in the predictions championship.

Thank you very much indeed. Can't believe you stole my prediction. Literally out the blocks. I am fuming. But look, this is the game. The game's the game and you went first. I feel like there's almost always been won ever since we kind of implemented this. There's always one prediction it feels like that this happens.

Yeah, it's devastating when you're on the receiving end of having to change it. But anyway, well played Tommy. Great minds think alike. Let's now head to a big flop. My big flop. I'm behind. Alpine. Alpine. I was going to go for Pierre Gazley, but you can score double points if the team do really badly. And look, they have been all right these last few races. They have. Pierre Gazley's been flirting around the points the last couple. And I just don't feel like Qatar's going to play into their hands all too well. I mean, let's not forget as well. I've said this. Pierre Gasly finished fifth in Qatar last year. Which means if he doesn't finish in the top five again, I'm going to be calling. for at least half a point.

But look, screw it. I have to do something different. I thought Pierre Gassi would be bad. So why don't I just throw Colopinto in there as well? Sorry, mate, but Alpine. Can I throw Colopinto, Peter? Yeah, he'll score points now. A big flop I have gone for Kimmy Antonelli.

I hope I'm wrong. But of course, it's on a great run of four. You know what I'm about to ask? Is it banned? Is it banned? I didn't actually check. You didn't check? No.

I feel like it is. What's it called? You keep talking and I'll look it up. Yeah, okay. So Kimmy Antonelli, yeah, he's been on an amazing runner form. Will he continue that form going into a sprint weekend? I hope so. But of course, it's banned.

That was actually, I had an inkling that it was. So that's why I thought, people that don't know the meme are very confused right now. But I'm sure people must know it by now. titanium dioxide is allowed, as a food additive, Kimmy Antonelli has phenomenal performances. Yeah. And every time it's banned, he pretty much always lower than top five. Don't you be put in permutations, little P6 is not a flop.

I'm saying. This is getting to crunch time. No, no, I was just sharing the titanium oxide championship championship. The meme, indeed. Okay, all right, Kimmy is locked in for you. let's now go to sprint pole position. Sprint pole I'm going for Lando Norris. I don't think, of course I don't, because I'm the pessimistic match, the Sappam fan.

You could have just ended up. I don't think. I don't think. Yeah, true. I don't think. I just guess. And that McLaren will be nuffed by having to maybe potentially raise their ride height or be a little bit less risky with a the plank, of course, based on what happened in Vegas, I think it was extreme circumstances

that we had the wet qualifying and things like that. And this track has suited them even when they were more of a midfield car and not the kind of championship dominant car, constructors championship dominant car, of course, that we've seen this season. So that's why I'm backing Lando to continue his good form. You're just a Lando merchant, you are, mate. That's the only place you get points these days is putting Lando in. That's how you gained a three-point lead on me,

just fully backing Lando Norris. I can confirm I did not go for Lando for sprint pole position. I went for, Max Verstappen. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. I feel it. I feel it in my bones. I feel it in everything. Max Verstappen is getting sprint pole.

He, we've said this before on sprint weekends, but the stats don't lie. Max is very good when it is a sprint weekend. And that Red Bull, I genuinely believe, is on for the next two races for Max to win almost everything, in my opinion. He's got a fresh engine from Brazil, don't forget. And he's ready to just, I just feel like Red Bull genuinely can challenge for the win in both weekends. So I am backing Max for staff.

Sorry, Max fans, when this doesn't come in. But I need it to come in. I have to back my boy, Max Verstappen. Good sake. Let's now head to the sprint winner. The sprint winner. Max Verstappen. It's MV 33.

No, it's not. It's MV1. I hope it's not. There's no MV 33 next year. It's going to be NV-69 if he gets his way. That would be. quite something, the amount of merch being sold, that has NV69

on it. I don't want to think about that reality, but I'm not even trolling here when I say that yes, McLaren, Qatar, on paper, amazing. Let's not forget who won. Let's not forget who won the Qatar Grand Prix last year.

It was Max Verstappan. So, over to you, Max. I've put all my sprint eggs in your basket. And I've put All my sprint eggs in Lando Norris's basket. I've gone for Lando Norris Sprint winner.

Yeah, he's, I, despite, it's funny that we've battled it out going for Oscar Piastri, good surprise, and we're now picking between Max and Lando. I guess Oscar's form, of course, has been so poor recently that his, what constitutes as a surprise is lower. But yeah, I do think Lando is going to be exceptionally strong again. there is obviously a little bit of how will the nerves will there be nerves kick in that it's kind of an option or will he you know take it into his hands and wrap up the title early who knows but yeah I'm going for Lando Sprint winner that's fair a very fair analysis and I could easily have gone all in on Lando Norris and I think that genuinely could happen as well but in

in my head, right? I'm playing out the scenario. Of Lando on pole? Very fair. Max second. He is doing the most outrageously disgusting dive bomb into term one, no matter where he is. He knows he has to be ahead of Lando, and I think that will either mean mine comes in, or neither of us comes in. I genuinely believe that we will see a Max Verstappen, 2021-esque, from here on to the end of the season. He has to ask the question. It's just whether or not that question is good on the rest.

Because of the one place penalty that he got, of course, which put him behind George Russell and he took the lead. Yeah, that's done it before. It's an most insane infringement we've ever seen. Right, let's head to poll position, Tommy. Pole position. Gone for Lando Norris. Oh, my God.

This could be. the championship swinging either way the predictions championship honestly mate you can have it if you're going for Max yeah it's a win win for you you don't care about the predictions this is my

insurance my predictions championship insurance if it goes wrong for Max yeah poll everything I've said before I think McLaren will be strong here Lando still you know drove a good race in Vegas before the disqualification before that obviously brilliant in the previous two races

before that yeah so I'm backing Lando Norris so this may surprise you but I was going to go for Lando Norris so I have to change my prediction to Max Verstappen I wasn't even going to do it so Max fans you can't say that I was going to go all in because I wasn't I was going to spread the eggs ever so slightly. But now we are do-do-do-do-doing all the way to Max Verstappenland in this Prediction's Championship and also to make it close going into Abu Dhabi. So yeah, Max, I don't mind it. I deliberated putting a George Russell rogue pole in there, but Max is the form driver

at the moment, along with Lando as well. They're both performing very well. So don't mind it. This is it, by the way. Abu Dhabi doesn't matter. predictions championship could well be wrapped up at the end of Qatar with the amount of predictions we are, we're doing this week. And, well, how many do we do usually?

Obviously, without the sprints, so it's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. So, Tommy, if you get a nine point lead going into Abu Dhabi, you've done it. So you need to outscore me by six points this weekend. That's a lot. It's a big score, but we've both gone very different directions. And if someone clean sweeps, it can go one of two ways. right third position for the main race i am locking in oscar piastri oscar is getting a podium and it will be p3 yeah because i just i i wanted to go for good surprise oscar

and as you kind of said tommy a good surprise for oscar doesn't constitute him even necessarily beating lando as you seem to be falling off your chair and uh doing things i trying to activate your brain as to who you're going to put in third place because you clearly were going to go for Oscar as well. Maybe you were picking a name up off the floor. But whatever it was you were doing, Oscar Patsy, P3, and that is it locked in. So I had gone for Oscar Piastri,

and we know what that means if I don't predict a driver. That's what you were doing. I was like, it's very strange. I'm midpoint and you're just on the floor looking for something. It was a George Russell hat. Fair enough. Oh, and his mic's gone as well. Tommy's having a lot of me.

Yeah, I go for George Russell because I needed to pick someone else because I'd gone for Oscar Piastri, and I do think George will do well here. Okay. George Russell for you in P3. What about P2, Tommy? P2, I've gone for Oscar. I'm going to change it to Oscar Piastri. Can I change it?

Does that work? Yeah. Oh, yeah, I can now, can I? You can do it. Oh, yeah, we have done that. that i was just checking um yeah oscar piastri so i'll switch him switch him around um because i had george russell but i changed him to p3 um so yeah oscar piastri p2 um would obviously be a great result for him uh not if landowners wins of course um but uh a great uh return to form and i can

see you thinking about what you do here whether you you go for the yeah i was i just played out Absolutely F-U moment. All 3.4 billion simulations of this predictions championship. To see if I have to put Franco Colapinto somehow as... Well, no, but the thing is, right, I either have to back Max here and just go all in. Or if I put Lando for P1, you'll just put Max for P1 and be like,

ah, screw, it doesn't matter if that one comes in. So, realistically, do I want to have Lando P1, but then I have to put a George in at P2 or something? And then I don't have Max at all. I don't... in second position. I'm going for Lando Norris. Landois P2.

I'm sticking to my guns. I'm sticking to what I was going to do, not change it, because I will kick myself if I did change it and then I was wrong. I'd kick myself more if I didn't go with my gut and I know everybody's going to hate the fact

I've gone for Max Verstappen for literally everything. And that used to be boring back in 2023. Now this is a rogue, set of predictions from me so Lando P2 could well be P1 but this is the way I'm rolling the dice

right with our head to P1 I wonder who I might go for Max for Stappen is winning it all and should this happen and I get everything right

I love how I've good surprised Charlotte Clare and he's not even finished in the top three in my predictions maybe I'm going to regret that but maybe a nice little P4 does something

that has like a bad qualifying due to an engine issue and comes through to P4 that's a good surprise I'm just thinking of every scenario where I can score points in every single one of my predictions

but it's Max P1 should it finish in the top three the way it is that is a seven point swing so that would then mean or eight point swing if Lando finished the second in the sprint as well

which puts it at a whopping 16 points going into the final race indeed so yeah P1 I've gone for Lando Norris no surprise

I've gone all in on Landy gone all in on Max and I am praying you win this week and the predictions championship and dominate this week

because of course I'd love to see it but yeah it's I'm too nervous and pessimistic and everything and kind of worried

about jinxing it I've not even put Max at all in any of my predictions not even the top three I just can't even say the man's name at the moment So nervous

One thing's actually crazy Is what you'll have seen by now That we did the social clip About the order Kind of being You know where we're like Oh if this scenario happens And this does this and this does that

And we were like Well that's not going to happen It's funny that last year's result Is actually Maxis happened first Oscar Piastri third and Lando was out the points. Oh no, it's right. He got 10th, didn't he?

So, yeah, that would spice the championship up quite a lot, wouldn't it? That would be very spicy indeed, whether that will happen again. Very unlikely. Very unlikely, yeah. We shall see. Right, one crazy prediction, Tommy. My one crazy prediction is that Lance Stroll out-qualifies Fernando, Alonzo in either of the qualifying sessions.

Gave yourself two bites of the cherry there. Yeah, yeah, big brain. Very clever. I mean, not very clever. I was going to ask you why, but there's no point. You've done that prediction about five times this year. I basically flip between that and McLaren's pit stop times. Yeah, and you've got that one last time out, and you weren't going to go for this time,

because there's two stops at the very least due to the 25-lap maximum tire stint length. my one crazy prediction Oscar breaks the podiumless streak put it in there lock it in it's done get that free burger yeah come on well no that's when he races now Tommy

so I will get that free burger if I go to Australia did that count if he was disqualified last week technically is not classified I mean imagine imagine that the tagline was any time Oscar Piastri is classified when Oscar Piastri appears

at a Grand Prix weekend Oh, we laugh But I hope for Oscar's sake He does break this podium in the streak And that's why I've gone for it Because I'll take a point and happiness As well to see him back on the podium I won Patreon prediction now

So if you are a P1 Patreon, you can submit your predictions And we choose one to be part of our set of predictions And you can score us a point Please score me a point My one comes in from Peyton G There is a controversial McLaren team order Oh, can you imagine the sense. I like that one a lot.

Yeah, just like a little Oscar, you're ahead of Lando in the sprint right now, but Lando's faster than you. I don't know, it doesn't even have to be move out the way. Just something that, you know, it could be like a Fernando is faster than you type job. Yeah, yeah.

Something that makes us go, hmm, not sure about that one, Chief. So yeah, there you go, that's what I've gone for. Yeah, like a hold max up, will you, Vlando or something. Yeah, something that just, Just something as a championship protagonist, you shouldn't be doing. Yeah, that's spicy.

I like that one a lot. I've gone for Jim Clark is my goat. Five or more different drivers across the sprint and race podiums. Oh, okay. See that? We have a mix-up of the order between the two races. All right. An interesting weekend coming up, if that happens.

Right. It's now family top three. time is currently 12-9 to the Bellingham's and what I have done what I have done is I have actually locked Ellie in a room for the last three days to research every single parameter possible for this predictions championship she needs she needs to put the wheel knowledge to the test and she's got will knowledge I need a clean sweep Ellie so please I will let her out the room should this happen? For context, who's checking?

Hello? Yeah, for context. Can you just say first and foremost, I haven't locked you in a room for the last three days? No, you haven't locked me in a room for that. Four days. Okay, all right, it's actually been four days, isn't it? No, no, no, it's, I just joked,

and then Tommy said maybe it wasn't clear that I was joking. Anyway, hi. So we're 12-9 down to the boring Bellingham's. We need a clean sweep from you this weekend. No pressure, but Tommy might, well be fielding a, I don't know, an inanimate object is that clear that it doesn't really matter what he predicts. So, talk to me. Third place. Wow, I completely forgot about this until right this moment.

I told. That's crazy. Channel the vibes. Yeah, sorry, I'm locking in, I'm locking in. In third place, I'm going to go for George Russell. Okay. It's going to spawn into a podium. I don't mind it. P2. Okay. P2, I'm going to go Max to stop him. Wow. Giving up on the max hype already. That's crazy. And in P1. Because I don't want to jinx him and I want him to win. But I guess this way I kind of win both ways because either he wins, which is great.

Or if he comes second at least again. But what if he finishes third? Nobody wins. Yeah, that will be sad. That would be really sad all round. But you can't win him all, can you? Okay. Max second. Add in first. I'll go for Orlando win. All righty, Lando, Max, George. I kind of want a clean sweep, but I'm happy to throw the family top three

in order for it to be an interesting Abu Dhabi. So thank you all the same, my love. I appreciate you and I'll speak to you soon. I love you. Bye. Love you, bye. She's gone for the pessimistic. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not, you know,

I said all that lovey-dovey stuff. I'm not happy with that. I'm not happy because we've got to either win, we've got to go all in or we've got to be like depressed. You know what I'm saying? Like I'd rather she just went for a Max win and then everything goes down to the wire and it's an exciting Abu Dhabi

but instead like this comes in Lando's probably champion of the world but then it closes up in the championship the constructors of the family I mean congratulations to Lando don't worry I'm saying this as a neutral I just want to see a close Abu Dhabi

I want to see a close Abu Dhabi where there's a smoke screen at term 1 before the race starts like a big old smoke screen and then Michael Massey just walks out like in like the undertaker after mcclaren got disqualified he's it cuts to the garage and he's shaving the plank of the mcclaren yeah or he kind of like swings in on some sort of like tight rope and then just flies up to the steward's room and anyway that's quite uh someone's definitely making an edit of that um okay so i'm going to do something a little bit different um because my family are actually here um as Some may know they live in front, so it's rare they're actually here, and they're actually here while I'm recording. So I'm going to actually feel my dad, IRL.

So he will take the hot seat. And I wonder what he's going to say. Let me go get him. Oh, my goodness gracious me. He's ready. He's here. He's ready to go. He just stood outside the room waiting.

This is his moment. I'd take it the P1 hoodie up to file. Crazy. I've put my Alex Algon shirt on. Wow. Wow, this is a momentous occasion. He's got the F1 merch on as well. Seat down a bit.

Here we go. Hi, Matt. Tommy, you're looking good. This is Tom in 30 years' time. First and foremost, before we get into the top three, what name are we calling Tommy this week? Because you bring a new one to the table every time. We've had Balug, haven't we?

We have had Balug. Fred is the favourite. is the favourite. Turtle. Turtle. We haven't turtle. Perfect. Tommy Turtle.

Tommy Turtle. When he was about two or three. Tommy Turtle. And now Tommy Turtle at the ripe old age of what, 36, 37. Anyway, right. So where do you go for the third place? Well, as the boring Bellingham's have already got one hand on the trophy already, Matt, much to your disgust.

I thought I'd, you know, should I have. make your day brighter and go for an Alex album win, but no, because in your words, winning is everything. So I think it's going to be the well-used

Russell third. Oh, no. Okay, third place, that's what Ellie's gone for. You've already blocked that. That's fine, but that's allowed. That's not part of the rules. Okay, second place. Piestri.

Pastri. P2. And in P1? Max. Okay. That Max Verstappen has had his name uttered from a Bellingham, but it's not been Tommy because Tommy is afraid. That is amazing. I know.

And can I just say one thing? Go on. Hello, everybody. And welcome back. I've always wanted to say that. And you've done it. You've nailed it. Amazing. You can come back more often. Tommy can have a week off. Thank you so much. All right. Thanks very much. All the best.

You too. You too. Cheers. Bye. Thanks, Dad. You can edit it as much as you like. There we go. There you go. That's quite something. So they, Max Verstappen has had his name uttered, but not by you. I know. I'm glad he went for something different there in like, in a competitive spirit way. Because when when he said, Russell, I was like, oh, it would be a bit anticlimactic. I was like, oh, no, he's going to say exactly the same as Ellie the entire way through. But no, didn't even mention Lando's name in the top three. Interesting. Very interesting. Did he put the

William shirt on because he knew he was going to have an appearance on the P1 podcast, or is that just a bit of leisure wear for him? No, it's leisure wear. I love that. I love that. And he was wearing a P1 hoodie when he arrived as well, like the fan boy that is. Yeah, what an amazing, dad. I was hoping for a one, two, for Williams. Let's not forget as well, if you score literally one more point than the Gallagher's, it's done. It's over, yeah, true. The Gallagas have lost and the boring Bellingham's, I hope you're happy with the money kind of vibes, you know.

But right, that is it. Thank you, everybody, for tuning in to the penultimate predictions of the year. It has been a chaotic one. I think chaos over the last few days of the things we've been doing, live streams, podcasts, etc. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? final thoughts are thanks to everyone i'll shout out everyone that joined us for the chaotic Vegas weekend and hope you're ready for another amazing weekend of lots of streams because we've obviously got the sprint weekend and who knows maybe a seven-hour stream after the race when

they're all in scrutineering and we need to find out who's uh can you imagine not another one although i had a lot of fun in the live stream that we did and i've also just realized to my absolute disgust that with also, and this is very basic arithmetic, that with your dad going for the same one as Ellie for one of the positions, the Gallagher's cannot even level the scores going into Abu Dhabi. And have the Gallagher even led the entire season? I don't know. I don't think so. I don't remember ever saying. I'm pretty sure I had like a six one lead at one point. That's why I kept fielding. I love you said I by the way, not we. No, it's a team. It's a Tim, you know, Tommy trying to take the,

I'm team manager. The ballad of the Bellingham's. Absolutely disgraceful. There are eyes in Bellingham's, to be fair. So there you go. Right. Thank you, everybody. We will see you for, as Tommy said,

lots of live streams, lots of podcasts. Make sure you're following us on YouTube on Twitch and everything else. Matt Pee on Tommy on Twitch if you want to come and watch there. And, of course, we do it on YouTube as well. And that is it. Time to go and rest a little bit before we get underway for Qatar. Lots of love. Take care.

Bye. Bye. Bellingham's Go Matt Go Matt Go me Yeah Too fair

Not in the family The main one Yeah Get all the points Yeah Yeah And then it's kind of level-ish

Into Abidabi Did you put Land on the podium Yeah Second Okay Goodbye Take closer

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