P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2025 Spanish GP predictions

Episode Date: May 29, 2025

We’re back with the final race of the 'no-overtaking triple header', but we’ve got some new regulations to contend with - so let’s see how that influences our predictions for this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix!Tickets for 'The Delusion Tour' are now on sale for Patreon subscribers! Join us at shows across the U.S, Canada, England, Ireland, Scotland and the Netherlands later this year by signing up now and getting your early access tickets: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyYou can listen to an extended version of every Race Review podcast over on our Patreon! Sign up to also get every P1 episode ad-free, early access to 'The Delusion Tour' tickets and merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Before we get into our predictions, the P1 live show, delusion tour tickets are now on sale for our patrons at patreon.com forward slash Matt P1 Tommy. And also general sale goes live at 10 a.m. UK time on Friday. Hope to see you there. Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. It's another race week. It's the Spanish Grand Prix. The circuit to Barcelona, Catalonia, the better Spanish GP track because we ain't got. that shane but we'll see it's going to be better than what we saw in monaco for sure surely why have i said that don't say anything like that because i'm putting weird energy into the universe will go well we'll show you something uh but tell me how you feeling mate you're ready for another one i'm ready for another one yet the final leg of the no overtaking triple header of imola monaco and circuit to Barcelona catalonia uh but imola was really good so so pray that that uh catalina

delivers. And let's not forget, the technical directive is here. It's arrived. No more floppy front wings. Just big flops in the P1 podcast. That's the only flop we're going to see from here on. So Will Colapinto and Gassley finish one too. And actually, you know, they've just been planning for it the whole time. Oh, the master plan. Are you drafting Grace for the family predictions? Maybe we'll see. Okay. Right, let's dive into good surprise. My good surprise is, doesn't matter because it's you first. I'm so used to going first for that. Tommy, it's over to you.

Okay, my good surprise, and I'm going to regret this one. I've gone for Fernando Alonso. At his home race. At his home race, he can't not score points every race. He's been so good. The car's looking better, at least with him driving it. He's had some great qualifying performances recently. And surely he can get to the finish line in a P10 or above.

At his home race, please. Maybe he was just saving it the whole time for something special. And of course, yeah, points. I will lock in that good surprise because my word has he been unlucky this year. It's funny because I think I've actually found your burner account on Twitter because I was having a small little discussion with a few people. And I was basically saying, I can't believe we're excited for the Spanish GP track. after what Monaco did to us.

But then again, you know, the last chicane has changed things. Also, the TD is coming. And then I questioned, you know, if it even does anything. And then I am convinced this person is you. What do you mean if it will probably shift the championship towards Vastapen,

and very likely Alonzo is going to get his 33rd win this weekend. That's why I put huge money on an Alonzo win. Seems like the bookies didn't get the memo yet. So finally going to be rich from next week. And I went, Tommy, is this your burner account? Genuinely being serious. And I'm not kidding. I think this person's being serious.

Because they then said, no, I'm just using common sense. But don't worry. It's not for everyone. So you're not alone. They know something. They know something. If Alonzo wins, fair enough. All right.

I will apologise to this particular user. But Alonzo, good surprise. Well, there we go. We will see. My good surprise. Max Verstappen. Okay. I just feel like this is another track that Red Bull are going to be good at.

It just feels like it. Imala, I don't know, just something in my brain. It just makes sense that Spain, we've seen obviously millions of miles in previous pre-season testing around here. And I just feel as though, yeah, I think Max and Red Bull, perhaps there will be a slight shift in the pecking order, perhaps not with the way the teams are in terms of positions, but maybe they get closer. I don't know.

But the vibes are there. and I feel as though Max is going to have a very good weekend, obviously off the back of a reasonable one in Monaco. I will lean towards that when he finishes second, but it's not really a good surprise, is it? I'm going to have to see him win. But there we go. That's what I've gone for.

A big flop. I've gone for Charlecler. Ooh. Because... Because it was Mono again last week. Yeah, I'm not saying it out loud. Because then that's when the... Anyway, I've gone for Charlotte Claire, big flop,

because Ferrari would really... really good last week and I feel like they won't be good round Spain. I just don't. It's, it was a one-off in Monaco and my big flop's been terrible this year. So. And yeah, makes them do really well. So fingers crossed. Maybe the second time of you. I didn't say that. You said that. Second time of you picking, Charles might actually deliver this time. We'll see. Maybe. I'll keep, I'll keep doing it. So. Until it works. A big flop I have gone for Oscar Piastri. purely vibes based

actually yeah I just feel like Oscar you know he's had this run of podiums and yeah maybe if that comes to an end he's still been brilliant this season still leading the world

championship I don't think and we'll get into this that this whole change is going to absolutely destroy McLaren that's not why I've gone for Oscar Piastri personally just to cover that one. But yeah, just maybe if he's not on the podium this week, perhaps.

I hope this slight rule shift just brings us an amazing race. Like, come on. Just tee up this season to be even better. Bring Mercedes back in. Bring Mercedes in. Because however much people will go, oh, McLaren, you know, are they need to slow down, realistically, max is only 25 points off them. So for the good of the championship,

they don't need to be like absolutely woeful. We just need to bring the other teams in because it's still very close at the top. You know, if you said that based on how we've gone so many years of dominance to actually have this late, late, but after so many races into a season, three drivers separated by a race win, we're basically in Dreamland compared to many of the other seasons

that have gone by, basically. I'm waiting for you obviously it's 25 points now for Max off the top of the standings like maybe five races further into this season you're going he's only 75 points behind there is still a mathematical chance

and then more and Charlie Clare in any in 2022 I would I've just flopped my boy and now you've gone and reminded me of the worst part of my F1 watching career ever goodness gracious me

me and you we're going to fall out. Right, let's go to poll position. I've gone for Landon Norris. Yeah, I think he's going to continue his great form after Monaco. McLaren is still going to be quick and he's going to go in there full of confidence after what he did in Monaco, you know, before Monaco. I think qualifying has been the thing that's let him down most of the season, but no, I think he's going to do a fantastic job. very fair shout

it's not what I was going to go for because of course in the new regulations of the P1 podcast predictions we have to announce if we were going to go to the same one and then change it however I was not going for that I was going for Max Verstappen

and it's weird now that I sit here predicting Max and there's a part of me from 2023 going how can you possibly go for the most obvious choice but he isn't anymore and this is a left field shot even though weirdly he's got the most

polls this season but he still is not the most in the fastest calf Yeah, and the most obvious choice for poll, weirdly. Yeah, yeah, very strange. Weird place that we are in, and that's why we've not been scoring hardly any points, and it's 2016 to you, isn't it, Tommy?

I don't think I reflected on that at the top of the show, but that is the points. I've gone from Max, because similar to my good surprise, and also I'm putting all my eggs in one basket, clearly, and I just, yeah, I think that they're going to be quick round here, and it should theoretically be another really close qualifying session, but maybe not. Maybe it'll be a max domination.

which I'll be fine for for my predictions let's go to third position I am locking in oh I'm just thinking just tactically here I've gone for Lando Norris P3 Lando Norris P3

I think it'll be close between the two McLaren drivers but I'm going to lock in Lando on the bottom step of the podium okay P3 I have gone for George Russell I had a shocker last time.

He's going to spawn back on the podium. And he's going to, there's a very funny meme going around about George that when he tries, doesn't try too hard, he actually does better. And when he's absolutely going for it is when things go wrong for him.

I'm sure he would probably have other things to say about that, about whether he tries or not during his job. Yeah, but you know what I mean? Like, he's good at just, yeah, when you kind of, he's gone under the radar of his, as what's been his kind of brilliant races this year and stuff. So, yeah, George's back on the podium

after the disappointment of Monaco and I'm sure he'll just take not staring at a Williams rear wing for the whole race, to be honest, after what happened last time. Well, we'll see, see how quick they are. Yeah. In second position, Tommy, who have you gone for?

P2, I have gone for... Hmm, do I... No, I'm going to stick to my original. Lando Norris, I have gone for P2. Okay. Yes. a poll to P2, but still a great result. I think Lando is going to be very good this weekend, but I've not gone.

Not gone for the dub. Okay, in second position, I have gone for Oscar Piastri. I think the momentum will slightly swing back to Oscar by no other reason than picking drivers randomly for a prediction series. But it's going to be interesting. I think that I'd like to see the two battle. We've not really seen it. But I don't think they're going to be battling. for P1.

I think they're going to be battling for second place. Speaking of, first position, I am locking in. Do, do, do, Max for Steppen.

Yeah, it's going to be Max. It's going to be a Max dub. He's back in the championship, Hunt. This is obviously part of me thinking that Rebel is going to be quick, but also part of me going,

let's make this championship as close as possible, please. And I think a Max win would be really good in Spain to make things ever so slightly closer. as we mentioned, 25 points behind now. Before we then head to Canada, Austria, the British Grand Prix, over the next three race weekends after this. So, yep, Max P1.

So this is where I declare that I had also put Max Sestappen in P1. So, yeah, I just say the reason for it, of course, you know, same as you. I can absolutely understand why you've gone for that, because, you know, you look at this season and, you look at all the tracks with kind of fast sweeping corners and max has either won it or been very close to winning it so this feels like another one there's also something very interesting that i've seen happen with with max that a few people are starting to pick up on that it's now 14 races in a row where max has gone podium not podium podium podium not podium

podium podium not podium podium not podium and it just keeps happening of course not on the podium last week So surely it's a podium for him this week if that trend continues to 15 races, which is quite insane. So yes, I am distracting myself to think on the fly of who I'm going to go for, and it's going to have to be my biggest flop. So I will go for Oscar Piastri. Big flop, actually. The branding changed this year. You've just called it the one thing we changed it from.

That's crazy from you. So yeah, I'll go for Oscar Piastri. Which is not exactly the most left-field shout in the world for Oscar to win. No, I think that's called spreading the eggs, isn't it? It's certainly is. In the predictions business. The predictions business. In fairness, there's a lot of you that listen and watch to this prediction series

that have turned, you know, into your little friends, group chats. Yeah, I love that. Let us know, you know, send us something on social or comment in the, either the YouTube comments or wherever you're listening on audio. I'd love to see how many of you sort of follow either our format or do something slightly different and if you do something slightly different let us know what you do it always is awesome to hear about that let's now go to our one crazy prediction for the spanish grand prix tomm you're smiling some of you have been seriously getting the spices out okay this is the definition

of spreading your eggs so my one crazy prediction is lance stroll out qualifies fernando alonzo That's one insane prediction. It is because of course it's happened 20 times in a row now that Fernando Alonso has outqualified stroll. But because I've basically put him as biggest good surprise Fernando Alonzo, this is basically an insurance prediction. We've done it again. We've changed the branding. It's a good surprise. And you're saying it's biggest. For goodness sake, Tommy. It's almost like we had two years of doing it. I can't get out of my head.

Okay. All right. you have very much, and this is something, you know, you don't have to commit to your predictions throughout the entirety of it. If you want to try and score points and, you know, as you say, spread the... This would be like last week, didn't you? I think I'm pretty sure you said, like, no McLaren on the podium is a crazy prediction, but then you're like, oh, well, I'll put one in there, just kind of cover myself. No, I didn't put any McLaren's in my podium. Did you know? I fully backed my Ferrari delusion. Oh, you did, didn't you? So, yeah, and that's what...

Day, you put worse in my mouth. So my crazy prediction, it's the biggest poll margin of the season. Now I don't know what that is. Two tenths. Two tenths, basically. Is it two tenths? I can't remember where it was. 0.186. 0.186. At Bahrain.

Barrain. Okay. All right. We will fact check that, of course, when we reflect on it for the race review, but I know it's not massive. And I feel like we might get a big poll margin this time as Tom is ferociously researching to see if we can slot it in. You can tell.

That's why we don't tell each other our predictions, because Tommy would have obviously had that fact ready to go, still looking at him scouring the internet right now. I know for a fact it's Bahrain. Yeah, you know it's Bahrain and the Bahrain Grand Prix qualifying results were in no particular order. How are you still looking? Because it doesn't give the gap some of terrible at maths.

And I'm looking at it right now. The gap was 1 tenth and... 68.168.1.168. 1.168. Goodness gracious me, Tommy. Well, that was great content. I hope you enjoyed all that. I think I actually dribbled

when I was doing my maths there. Okay, let's go to our Patreon prediction, where if you are part of our patron, you can submit a prediction and it can be part of this series. Mine is from DK-1644-14. Both Spanish drivers get points. Please.

Lock it in. Carlos Science, Fernando Alonzo. Thank you very much. I see it in my mind's eye, and so does DK. That's my prediction. Hope to see it, of course. I guess you want an Alonzo out in Q1, but still scores points. And then flies through the field and wins the 33.

And then that guy wins the 33. Wins the 33, the third win, as that guy said. Indeed. What's your prediction, mate? My patron prediction is his serene highness. and they've gone for, we see seven different constructors in the top ten. For the race results. Right, we'll say the race.

So we'll clarify that as the race, to avoid any sneaky... To avoid any FP2 results. Yeah, exactly. Okay, dokey. That would once again be quite lovely to see, so we shall await that. Here we go then, family top three time,

and I need more points. Gallagher's all around the world my family's not that big but I really do need some points because it is six two to the Bellingham's the gaps too big right now Tommy why don't you draft

whoever you have gone for first okay I will give my mum a call ooh you actually scored two points last time so hoping to extend the lead further can we get Frank back on come on

Here we go. Don't go for a McLaren 1-2. Don't go for a McLaren 1-2. They definitely will. They know what's that. Nah, that's crazy. Like, your mum and dad can't just constantly go for McClaren 1-2s. Hi, mum.

Hi-ah. You're live on the P-1 podcast again. Well, I say live, recording. We need your top three, and we need to extend our lead at 6-2 at the moment. So can I get P3 for the Spanish Grand Prix, please? Okay. P3 and Tonelli. Okay, we might be, it might be closing up.

P2. Vestappen. Okay. And P1. Russell. Oh, my Lord. No, McLaren's. No, McLaren.

That's me last week. This is going to be the day. Okay. Thanks, ma'am. And, uh, wow. Appreciate the Michael Massing. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Goodbye. All right, then. Bye. Bye. God, imagine she's right. She thinks the switch up. Don't forget this is Spain. She's got some knowledge.

She knows something. She knows about that technical. So Mercedes will become the fastest car with Max Verstappen somewhere in the middle. All righty then. That'll be zero points. Mum, come on. Please give me points.

I beg. I beg. Come on, man. Come on. You've got to believe in Max Verstappen this weekend. Please. Hi, Mum. Welcome to the P1 podcast. Thank you.

Are you ready for the top three? Please start with your third position. Max. Okay. All right. You believe in Max, but not like, are you with first name basis with Max? Is that it just, it's just Max? Is it? Yeah, I'm going for first names now. Okay. All right. Okay. Okay. Second place. Charles.

Mum, mum, mum, mum, mum, mum really? No, I know he was good in Monaco. What? Yeah, but I believe. She believes. I believe in him. I believe in him. Mum, I flopped him this week.

I flopped him. Oh, okay. It's fine, don't worry. No, normally that means he's good. Yeah, maybe, actually. My flop's been terrible this week. It's fine. Don't be devastated, mum.

Maybe you're on to something. And first position, please. Oscar. Okay. Piairee. Okay. Right. Okay.

So neither of us has gone any point. No, I'm kidding. But it'll be interesting. Very interesting. Thank you so much, as always, one for getting involved.

Love you. Thank you. Love you. Bye. Bye. Right, that is it. We are done here for our predictions

for the Spanish Grand Prix. I'm excited. Can't wait to see what the pecking order does, if anything, maybe something. That would be nice. As long as they're closer,

I don't really care. And fingers crossed, Ferrari aren't as bad as I predict, but my mum reckons a little P2 for Charlotte Claire, so don't mind that, don't mind that at all. What are your final thoughts, Tommy? It's funny that you go, as long as they're a bit closer when we've had

basically pretty much every qualifying less than a tenth, but I know what you mean. Well, not in quality. I want a massive gap between first and second for my prediction and really close for the race. Yeah, a good race. Pray for a good race after what we saw in Monaco. Stop bringing it up, Tommy. It didn't happen. Sorry, it didn't happen. Yep, wiped from memory.

Monaco is so bad. and yeah looking forward to this one it's going to be exciting to see what these new regulations do if at all we're about to find out aren't we we certainly are we'll be live on Twitch as always and YouTube on Saturday and Sunday Matt P1 Tommy and until then we will see you for our Friday wrap-up bye Bye. Reflecting on how all the top teams are now terrible because they can't flex their wings. And Nika Holkenberg, P1 and FP1, you heard it here first.

Wow. So that's the chore, everybody. We've kind of rolled into the chore there. Tommy's still waving. I don't know why. But, yeah, to be fair, did you do your chores, everybody? Did you give us a lovely five-star review? I saw some people saying we've already done one.

so I appreciate that already because you can't do it twice. Yeah, anything else to add, Tommy? Let's have a look at the Monaco GP race review audios. Love listening to both your views and usually agree, but think you're doing Lando a massive disservice for this one.

Matt, what would you say? The Raced Review? The head of Lando did the same strategy and won. When did I ever... When did I disservice Lando? This is a thing, right? Whenever I read comments, I'm like,

did I... What? Yeah. How was someone taking it that way? Very interesting. Interesting. Well, there you go. You've just appeared in the chore segment. Maybe it was the, where we clarified, it's not a defensive masterclass because it's not. Basically, you can't call it that. It's a qualifying masterclass. God, you still talk about Monaco again, even the bloody chores. For God's sake. Right, Tommy, take your clothes off. Goodbye.

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