P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2026 Australian GP predictions

Episode Date: March 3, 2026

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Hello everybody and welcome. No calm back today. A big back. A back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Oh yeah. The season has arrived. How? It feels like four days ago that Aby-Dabby happened.

And I have a big old smile on my face. One of my favourite series is back. Us throwing predictions into the atmosphere and hoping they come in. And oh, what a what a. hopefully incredible season we have on in the midst very very close only what as of recording we're recording this to be fair at the start of the week so we got a little a few more days but Tommy how would you summarize the thoughts and feelings of drive to survive sensation Tom Bellingham I'm so hyped for this new season there's so much expectation going in there's been

a lot of negativity about the new rules but going into a new season where It's so unexpected. I just can't help but be absolutely loving life and can't wait for it. Predictions are even more fun when you have no idea what's going on. So there could be some pretty wild ones, I think, in this coming up. Exactly. And for the first time this year, we can officially say it's race week. Oh, my Lord.

The just the sound of that just feels incredible. So yeah, I'm also insanely excited. look, we have, as you say, been critical. We've been critical. We've been concerned about the upcoming season for quite a few very viable reasons. Massive changes in the sport and we're hoping that Formula One does it justice.

But that being said, the unknown, the unpredictability is what gets us up in the morning and it's what excites us about new regulation sets. Then we see the pecking order and then we'll revisit the excitement. But right now, it's peak excitement. 22 drivers are on equal points and that's all we can ask for. Alex Albon is leading the championship alphabetically.

Alonzo is the highest he'll ever be in the championship based on that Aston Martin. I know. I know. That's, yeah, that's crazy. We'll take it. Well, you never know. Let's see who we go for good surprise and shortly. So, of course, I did touch upon the fact that you are a drive to survive at sensation.

We did kind of touch upon it a little bit in the review that we did. Go and check that out if you haven't and you have seen the scene. because I realised we did post it obviously before anyone had seen it. More specifically, Tommy, you were impressioned by none other than Connor Moore, the absolute goat F1 impressionist. And when I tell you, I screamed. Like I actually howled when I saw you in your little setup, I'd done your hair and Oh my God.

Oh, it's so funny. The shake of their head, everything was just, you could tell that man had analyzed your character to the absolute T. And I loved it. And no, obviously, no joke. You only Tommy Tee. Anyway. Yeah, I was going to say, Conno Cleod knows me better than my whole family, the amount of he's researched into everything. I'm glad I watched it and didn't pick up on anything where I'm like, oh, God, do I do that?

thankfully it was it was just a little fun thing where yeah got the head shake and in my room with the glasses on it was it was perfect so if you haven't seen that go check out connor moore's video because yeah i that was more of a shock than the the drive-to-survive thing because i did not see that coming at all it's so funny and the the amount of people conner messaged me afterwards and said i've never had so many messages about an impression before The amount of people I think it caught everyone off guard I think that's what it was

It really did He's under so much pressure It's just that I love how he did your voice It's so brilliant And now the most concerning part Is that he has said There is one of me in the works

Oh I can't wait for that I am Sort of equal parts excited And terrified for Because as you say You know you watch someone do An impression of you And you're like wait

Hold on Is that what I do? Do I do that? Do I do that? Oh my goodness gracious. And now another thing, just before we dive into all of our predictions, make sure you join our F1 Fantasy League. I'm not sure if we mentioned it on the actual podcast,

but if we have it, we haven't, whatever, it doesn't matter. We've got a league on the proper F1.com Fantasy League website, and we are one of a few featured leagues, and we are the biggest. All right? So let's make sure we continue to be the biggest. F1 Nation is beating us, but look, that's, that's, That's cheating. That's literally.

They've got the front and center bit of promo there. We're a little bit further down. But we've still got over 20,000 of you joining with a team. Of course, it's free to join. So come and join us. There is, I have been asking for the graphic to be slightly moved, but it still hasn't. It just says, can you beat? And then me and Tommy's smiling face.

It's supposed to say, can you beat Matt and Tommy? And that's the question. Can you beat Matt and Tommy? Go and join our league. And we're doing a lot more with F1 fantasy stuff this year. which I'm very, very excited about. It's going to be good. The competition is going to be strong

because we all know from predictions how competitive you are. I feel like something needs to be put on the line. I feel like something between you and I need to think about like a forfeit for the end of the year. There's properly, you know, there's something that people can get invested in.

So we'll have a think about that. Actually, let us know in the comments, you know, either on audio or YouTube. Let us know what you think a good forfeit would be for the person that does not win out of me or Tommy. Okay, it is time to talk predictions. It is nil, nil. The reigning champion goes first.

Oh, wow. You've got the number one on your t-shirt. On my beanie hat. I actually do. You do actually do, yeah. Perfect. All right, here we go then. My good surprise.

My first prediction of the 2026 season goes to. Charlotte Clair. God's say we're so back. My good surprise is Charles LeClair for many reasons. And I think this is a logical one, genuinely. Because as much as there has been, you know, simmering hope and delusion for Ferrari, every single actual major motorsport platform has put Ferrari third or slower.

So... Second, I'd say. No. What are you looking at? Every sky, like autosport, they've all said... Oh, I've seen them second. They've all said Ferrari's third. They said Mercedes is fastest and then Red Bull.

I've not seen Red Bull. I've seen Red Bull 4th everywhere. Okay. Well, look, whatever. You clearly... You've been looking at Soy Motor, haven't you, for God's sake. What I got to mention again? But, yeah, there you go.

That's paid promo. Yeah, either or, Ferrari are not the fastest car. No. However, I think that there's something on the horizon that might well just explode my own. Heart by the end of the year, and that is a really strong Ferrari start. And that concerns me and excites me equally. If Ferrari have, look, there's kind of two parts to this, because I'm excited about the fact

that they may well have a reasonably fast car and an incredibly fast starting car. And then I'm also concerned, but it will benefit Ferrari if no one can overtake. So say Charles LeClair goes from third to first at the start and then holds on to win I'm obviously going to be buzzing but for the future of Formula One we could well be very concerned and be having a 40 minute rant on the main race podcast

but either or Charles LeClair is locked in as my good surprise I think it's actually worse that you're so hyped now that you've almost got because of this start thing you've got a backup of you're not even going to be upset if they are third or fourth on the grid P-14? No problem. Seventh by turn one.

they lose a place at the start we're seeing a generational meltdown on the watch along. Yeah, I will, I will disintegrate. If we, if we have somehow managed to have bad starts between far-ray testing, oh my God, Tommy, why have you even, that thought had not even come into my mind. No, no, no, no. They just stay in the same position. No, because they're so generationally far ahead at the moment with starts. Only Ferrari could go backwards from here.

Okay, so good surprise, my good surprise. I've gone for Franco Colopinto. He is, of course, the driver's, that scored no points last year. I think he's been memed as maybe, you know, the worst driver in F1 and a bit of almost like a Latifi character, which I think is unfair. The Alpine was awful last season.

And I think in theory, if that Alpine is better this year and is more competitive, which I believe so, and many people believe so, we'll see a side of Colapinto where, you know, he's a lot more competitive and can deliver, like we saw at the very start of his William stint.

So that's what I've gone for Colapinto. I think I know it was a bold call when I put him 11th in the championship standings. A lot of people in the comments were like, whoa, what on earth are you talking about? And a lot of people when we did our who's going to be last were still like, oh, Colapinto will be last. But I'm going for a Colapinto surprise. Colipinto is not going to be last in the championship. I'd be amazed, surely not. All right.

Let's head to a big flop. Tommy, who's receiving your flop? The first flop that... In 326. God. Unfortunately, my big flop is Oscar Piastri. And this is not for his ability, but due to something which many people will be aware of, called the Australian Grand Prix Curse.

And I have seen... everything go wrong for Australian drivers. Every time I watch the Australian Grand Prix, you had Mark Weber somehow never scoring a podium despite driving the championship winning Red Bull for four years in a row. Daniel Ricardo got disqualified, and he never managed a podium in that Red Bull the whole time. And then Oscar Piastri last year, you think,

oh, you know, surely he's going to be on the podium. He's driving the best car on the grid. He was hunting down Lando for the win, and he goes off. And I just think that I hope this is me, breaking that curse and we can see Oscar Piacre on the podium in his home Grand Prix because it'd be amazing to see. But they just don't have a good time. Australian drivers at the Australian Grand Prix.

So it's just based on a vibe and a curse. That's why I've gone for Oscar Piacery. That's wrong. Yeah. And if it is wrong, that's what the headlines will be is that Netflix star Tom Bellingham managed to break the Australian Grand Prix curse by putting Oscar Piacestry's big flop. Like you were at the universal force. As Connemour once said, there's so much pressure on him.

That's a great impression of yourself I'll be wrong Thanks I've been working on it My big flop Goes to It's a team I'm starting with the team

Straight away HASS I am This one of the main reasons for this Right is that whenever I have done An F1 fantasy team before It's usually pretty badly And I have gone all in on HASS

And for a You picked everything, didn't you? You picked everything, didn't you? You picked base. So, yeah, I picked them as my constructor and both the drivers because they were cheap. But I just feel as though I never load up my team and go, wow, I've scored loads of points. So that that's my main thinking here is that it's probably going to happen because Hasse, maybe sixth fastest car, perhaps even fifth fastest car. But Hasse have had their own, let's say, bits of luck in Australia themselves, wheels falling off and so forth. So maybe there's a HASS curse as well.

I don't know they're absolute, you know, full rundown of results in Australia. Well, last year they were like an F2 car for some reason. They were just nowhere, weren't they? And they're being Latin and stuff. There you go. Makes sense to me. So Hasse, I'm really sorry. Right.

Now we get into the juicy stuff. Pole position. And remember, everybody, if you are new to predictions, we probably should have said the terms and conditions are that you can't go for the same driver. So if I lock in a driver first, Tommy has to change on the floor. fly. And I feel like you might have to change on the fly. Oh, no.

My pole position is George Russell. George Russell's getting pole position by half a second. Oh no. The entire Formula One community melts. That's my thought. Of course, Charlotte Clare will take the lead from 7th on the grid. But George Russell, pole position, as Tommy's brain starts whirring because he wanted to go for George and hoped that I may have just gone for Charlotte

Claucopia the entire way through. Wow. Okay, so yes, no surprise I had gone for George Russell. You won't be surprised based on the fact that I've been on the Russell is winning it all from day one really since this new regulation set came in, but we will find out. So I instead will go for Oscar Piastri. Let's go Osco Piastri. Big flop happens in the race. So I'm going to Oscar Piaastri. I do think McCown would be competitive

I think they are being slept on I've heard as well that they weren't running the the real Mercedes engine during testing either which could be significant although there's talks of how reliable that that is of course Ferrari didn't run their barbecue wing so you know

running on the testing so that's no one showed their real hand the Macarena wing I'll go for Piastri I think yeah I was I'm going to go for

Antonelli but we'll go for Oscar Piastri I'm surprised because I was about to try and mouth you saying Kimmy Antonia yeah yeah yeah Oscar Piastri which was a curveball the first curveball of the year it has to be said in predictions so I'll afford to you regretting that one who is going to finish in P3

in the Grand Prix Tommy I have gone for that drive we just mentioned Kimmy Antonelli a podium for the first race the season for Antonelli. I think he will, I think it's a difficult track for someone that's still quite inexperienced, but I do think he's going to do well this season, as I mentioned. And I've got Kimmy Antonelli on the podium in what, no surprise from my pole position prediction

that got taken away from me, a very quick Mercedes that I believe. Okay. In third position, my driver is Max Verstappen. let's not sleep on the guy. Come on. You know, Red Bull, Max Verstappen. P3 will be all right, yeah. But, um... Can't not say P3.

I literally had it in my brain. I was like, oh, I forgot to say P3, yeah. And then instead put P3, then some more words then said, yeah. So people that don't know the meme, that probably sounded very strange. But Max Verstappen, third place, I think he's going to be fast enough to be challenging for podiums. So I found this very hard, incredibly hard. especially because we don't know the form book. This is probably the hardest predictions to do the entire year

because we've not seen any competitive running. But I'm going to put Max Verstapp and I feel very comfortable about that. Second position. Just missing out on the win. It's George Russell. George Russell is going to finish in second place. I could have gone for a very easy George Pollan and win, but I'm not going to be boring.

even though we've not even seen it. Boring guy just never won the world title. And we're like, it's so boring. George Russell is Max for Stappen this year. It could well be. It's mad, isn't it? How? Yeah, it's mad to think.

In our heads, though. It's weird. It's in our heads that it's happening. But I'm not rolling fully with the Merck-hyped train and he's going to finish in second place. I have no other reasoning or logic other than the fact that I don't want to put him first for this one. So there you go.

P-2. P-2, I have gone for Lando Norris. a driver that has not been mentioned this whole time as the reigning world champion and as I've kind of said with Oscar Piaastri I do think McLaren are slightly under-hyped going into the season and I think they're going to be very strong

I think Lando in particular not really had a lot of chatter about him and yeah I think he's going to start the season strong what a vibrant selection of drivers we've had so far like it. Who have you got down as the winner of the Australian Grand Prix, Tommy? P1. I've gone for George Russell. What a shocker. I'm sticking with it. Boring. Why? It's so funny. If Mercedes aren't good, like, what on earth has just happened? I know. Yeah. Gone for Russell. Until we see that first race, I cannot see the flashback of pure 2014

scariness. I don't think they're going to be that strong, famous last words, but I do think that Mercedes have been sandbagging like crazy and left a lot on the table in testing. And that's why I've gone for George Russell. Okay, scary times.

In first position, Sherlockler. It's happening. The scenario that I put out to, you is happening. Formula 1 could well be in serious trouble. Nobody can overtake, but as long as Charles Lecler can launch off the grid to take P1 by term one, that's it. Good luck. It's a motorway from there on in, but no motorway passes just following. And I will be tuning into that. Oh, what a great Grand Prix that will be. But look, Charlotte, Claire, do I actually genuinely

believe that this could happen? There is about 27% of my brain thinks that this could actually happen. That's enough for me to believe in the dream. And I've been here before. 2022 is exactly what happened here with Charles Leclair dominating Australia. And then it went terrible from there on in. You think he's going to be quicker now he's a married man. Sorry to bring that out. Well, thanks for bringing that up.

Didn't want to talk about it really in the podcast. But yeah, congratulations, of course, to the wonderfully happy couple. But I can always say that he called me babe. So that will be something that, you know, that lives with me until I perish. My favourite meme from his marriage was someone had, you know where he was driving through Monaco in that classic Ferrari? Someone had photoshopped the HP logos onto the side.

Of course they have. I was like, that is good. That is good. It's very good. Yeah, yeah. But yeah, I'm going to go for Charlotte-Claan now because if I, this is the only time I can probably do it until we see the true form of the Mercedes. So why not?

Let's throw it in there. Right, before we get into our one crazy prediction, we have a new segment in the predictions. And it's called P-WAT. P-W-W-T. Essentially, P-Wat is going to be where we select a random finishing position between fourth and 22nd. And we both have to guess who will finish there. It'll be one point for who is closest and two points if we get it absolutely. bang on. Tommy, are you going to be doing the random selection of...

Yeah, so for context as well, this is... I'm randomly generating the number right now. So this is our like... This is even more fun because we have to predict it completely on the fly. Yeah. With no time to think about it for too long. So I'm going to generate the number now. So 4 and 22, here we go.

It's P9. Pierre Gassley. I've locked it in straight away. There you go. Pierre Gassley. P9. Thank you very much. Reason for that is that I believe Pierre Gassel. I'm literally just like, P9, who did I go for P9 in the World Championship?

Oh, Pierre Gassley. So yes, look, that was quick. It was quick fire, but it was actually, it's not like a, you know, who can say it first. It was my turn. Yeah, well, it's your turn. Yeah, yeah. So I've got for Pierre Gassi, which I'm reasonably confident about, but at the same time, Australia could well, we could well see mechanical failures.

And drivers that are ninth fastest could end up for it. 7th or 6th or we could see wings flying around and all sorts. So yeah, let's just stick. We're just going to stick with it. Pierre Gasley. I will go for, hmm, I'm going to go for Olly Behrman. Now this is interesting as well. I just wanted to say, before you go into your reason for Olly Beerman,

you could, because obviously it's one point for who's closest. And if it's a P9, you could go for someone in the top eight teams that you think's going to be towards the bottom. But we're finishing eight. fielder that we have to have a blinder to get the closer. Oh, the loopholes are already coming out here. Do you love how I just already look pollings? Yeah, sorry, carry on.

Olly Behrman. Olly Beerman, again, it's one of those teams that you think are going to be on the fringes of the points. And, yeah, I think based on testing, we don't know. But obviously Alpine and Hasse are looking like those kind of teams that could be best of the rest. But I do, what was difficult is I, P9's a job. difficult one because I do think there could be the odd retirement as well with these new regulations although we said that about

testing them or breaking down and they're a bit more reliable than we thought absolutely okay and clearly bro didn't check who I went for big flop because I thought that was something you always used to avoid but of course let's see if the big flop powers are in full flow in

2020 I'm running my own race as well you are until you realise the big flop straight and we're we're looking with that one. Right, one crazy prediction, Tommy. This one is crazy. I'm going big for the first one. It's either Aston Martin or Cadillac score a point. This will make so much, this will be so much funnier once you've heard mine as well. Oh, okay. Go into your reason. So the reason for it is because I am an old Formula One fan and have watched Formula One for

years and every time there's a new regulation set, particularly when the season starts in Australia, I think about those races like 2008 and 2009 and things where like people were just crashing and there were mechanical failures all the time and just absolute chaos. And weird things can happen. And this obviously would rely based on the pace of it being a lot of cars having mechanical, technical trouble and problems or whatever. So I wanted to go for something absolutely crazy to start the season. So this is what I went for. You did.

I just went to check the weather. No rain currently predicted for the weekend. So there's not that element that you can rely on. Okay, interesting. Now my one crazy prediction is that Aston Martin... I love how we've both gone for the same thing. Oh, no. So a classified DNS.

They don't start. They don't even put their cars on the grid, maybe. Let's not, wait, let's not put the teas and seats. Oh, it's got to be a DNS thing. Yeah, they don't start. Yeah, I think that this is a genuine possibility if their struggles are as big as we continue to believe they are. They could well run on Friday, conk out on Friday, do a bit of quali, be four seconds off the pace and then go, is it worth? Do we really want to...

Lawrence, we're playing tennis. Off you go. Could well be. enough. But I, of course, this is crazy because I think Astor Martin need data more than anything in the world. But at the same time, it is, it's too soon after testing, I think, to really turn things around. But that's just my opinion.

So if they score, one of us is going to look really silly. I love it. We're always, our biggest problem with predictions is always go for the same thing. And one of us have gone, Asthma Martin cat, point of the other's gone, they're not even turning up, mate. This is crazy. But we love to see it. It definitely fits the prediction.

Right. Let's get into our Patreon prediction. Now, if you're new to this series, it's where if you join the P1 Patreon, you'll get lots of added benefits, including ad-free listening, access to our Discord and so on and so forth. And one of the things is that you can input,

let us know, a prediction of your own coming into a Grand Prix weekend. And then we select one of you to potentially score us a point and to help us or help us on our way. Who I have gone for is R&B sheep. Three different constructors on the podium.

What I've gone for? Because it matches exactly the podium that I went for with Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes. So I thought I would lock in, double down on the fact that we're in for an exciting, interesting season. And I look forward to scoring no points when it's a Mercedes one to. I nearly went for that one. Did you?

I was very close to going for that one. Even though it didn't match my, yeah. I see. But I'm continuing on the hedging of bets and gone for Ashes B.S prediction. And I've gone for Linblad points on debut. So Linblad scoring points. How many people are scoring points? Colopinto scoring points according to my predictions.

Aston Martin, Cadillac, points for everyone. Apart from the top 40s. Oprah Winfrey meme where she's like, you get a point. You get a point. Yeah, that's me right now. Oh, right. Oscar Paster is flopping, but also getting. poll.

Really. It's all over the place. Can you tell it's the first race of the season and we don't have a clue? Now, this is what you're doing. It's a very interesting strategy from you, Tommy, the one that says he's not competitive, to spread your prediction so far and wide that you think, if you come out of Australia with two points or something, you're going to be vibing. Whereas I have gone for either eight or zero.

That's my strategy. And maybe yours was better. But either or it doesn't matter. Now we are bringing back a fan favourite, the family top three. Can't remember who won last year. It says the boring Bellingham's fly landslide. But this year is different. Maybe we will see.

Right. I'm fielding my father who was concerned that I was fielding him because he says, I have no idea. So let's see. I said that's the beauty of it, right? That is the absolute beauty. Here we go. Come on, Dad.

do something decent. To be honest, I don't mind if you were completely different to me. Sorry, completely different to you. No. Hello, Dad. You weren't supposed to hear that, but anyway. Right. I only heard the last bit.

Welcome to the new season. How are you feeling about predicting? Oh, it's so tricky. Yeah, I thought so. Probably. But this year's different and more difficult. So good luck. Right.

Okay, Dad. Third position, please, for the Australian Grand Prix. Who's Childs? Charles Leclerc. Okay, Charles Lecler in P3. All right, all right, all right. That's fine. Daddy's crazy.

That's what I call Tommy. In P2. Lando P2. Okay, okay. And in P1? Max for Stefan. Oh, wow. Here you've gone full max in.

Okay. So you think they've been sandbagging a bit in testing, huh? All right. Thank you so much, Dad. Appreciate it. Lots of love. Take care. Bye.

Bye. Love you. Okay. my mum and dad are on holiday so I'm going to have to call my wife Katie and much like your dad for saying oh no hers was an oh no because she had to do it not because of the but also because of the new rules as well so this could be interesting I'm liking the difference though between them all hoping for some rogue predictions we know how much Katie loves doing this as well I know exactly hello you're okay you excited to be here at least pretend okay I can't make me do the first one of the season. I know. But this is, you've got a free pass, so it's fine. So we'll go for P3 first.

Kimmy. Oh, Antonelli, okay. P2? Charles. Okay, and P1? George, obviously. George, obviously. Wow, you can tell he's on the George Russell.

We've been brainwashed. We have been brainwashed by 2014. All right, thank you. Okay, right. Bye. Okay, so she's gone She's gone for Thank you from there

No love you, no anything That's crazy Well, she's in the next room I'll tell her right over a second I literally did really I grabbed the phone So it's fine So first

She's gone for first and third The same as me So this whole Spreading my eggs It's not worked It's the Tom Bellingham household It's just You know

You clearly got a little George Russell Shrine out And maybe Maybe a Mercedes shrine And then And then Charles second I got to respect that one So hopefully that comes in

Actually no P1 would be better Okay Well there you go go locked in yeah I didn't even put any McLaren in my top three which feels wrong and also I could well be very wrong with this but you try and put a top three together that you're confident about

that's what I would say to anybody questioning any of our predictions for this one no Lewis Hamilton mentioned either from anyone I believe no mention at all of Lewis as well so yeah some some big names not mentioned yeah it's going to be I I love the fact that we're going into the season not knowing. That is the best thing, the fact that even if one team is sandbagging, at least they sandbagged.

So we don't know and it's fun to guess first. Absolutely. Well, there you go. That is our predictions locked in. We are so excited for the start of the season. Remember, we will be live streaming. So I'm come and join us as always across wonderful, wonderful platforms. Tommy, I'm so excited.

I cannot basically contain myself right now. How would you sum up your final thoughts? Final thoughts? Just make sure you join us this weekend for the coverage because, yeah, we'll be doing our usual watchalongs and as we said, if Ferrari don't make up six places at the start, you're going to want to be on. The stream's going off on that one.

Yeah, the stream's going to be incredible. So make sure you watch. George Russell was a second and a half clear after that one. Please, no. Degis. Okay, that is it. Thank you, everybody. We'll see you soon.

Lots of love. Take care. Bobula ones. Bye. P1 is a stack production and part of the ACAST creator network.