P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2026 Canadian GP predictions

Episode Date: May 20, 2026

WE’RE BACK! After another agonising break, we’re here with some spicy predictions for the Canadian GP sprint weekend - plus, a bizarre driver rumour that needs addressing… Our brand new live show 'Super Podding' is coming to the UK and Amsterdam this autumn! Get your tickets here: http:/tix.to/p1liveSign up to our Patreon for just $5 a month! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTokP1 with Matt and Tommy is the world's biggest F1 podcast. Subscribe for new podcasts around every single race throughout the 2026 Formula 1 season! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back. Yeah, welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. The energy is high because Formula One is finally returning and actually gaining some momentum, Tom Bellingham. You know, well, too fair, it's not even a back to that. One race. Yeah, exactly. One race. Then we got a week off.

But then we get into the proper nitty-gritty of the season. And finally it will feel like this season has any kind of acceleration. because my goodness gracious me it's been a struggle for us F1 fans it's what is it it's May it's the middle of May and we've had four rounds four rounds it's ridiculous it feels like I don't know it just feels like the first four rounds

almost like preseason testing or something because there's like no momentum going finally we're going to kind of have a run of races because it feels like so long even after that big break that we had before Miami then into another break but finally kind of the season will be kind of going again before a summer break.

Well, you mentioned preseason testing. I wish it was because Ferrari were fastest in that. So that would have been nice for the first four rounds to be all Ferrari. But look, before we get into our predictions, let's run you up to speed with some of the, I mean, there's very little, but some of the things that have been circulating, at least circulating because some things turned out to be false. But the first thing to mention was there was a rumor going around about. Esteban Ocon being replaced mid-season at Hasse,

but then that appears to be complete and utter rubbish. Yeah, basically a classic case of a Twitter account with a kind of people doing that classic thing where they put a siren emoji and think that they've got some kind of credibility, which is always the case, it seems. And basically this rumor was started that Ocon is not, not very happy at Hass. Hasse aren't very happy with him. They're not impressed with his performance

and basically that he's going to be under fire, potentially mid-season. And the journalist that was quoted as saying this then replied to that tweet saying, you've completely taken me out of context and basically what she'd said was, yeah, they're not the happiest with Ockon right now, but it was her talking about basically Rafa Kamara

coming in in 2007 that there's a chance there. because of Ocon's performances. So completely misquoted. Ocon, as we know, like, this could age badly, but shouldn't be of being replaced mid-season because this is just a kind of false rumor. And you wouldn't, I also don't think there's any chance of this happening because, of course, O'Con has a big old contract with Hasse

and the amount that a team like Hasse would have to pay him off for an enormous amount of races. Plus, there's no way that he's. he's doing that bad that it's worth doing that, basically. Takes me all the way back to 2017, was it, when he had his little blue bag over his shoulder. There's been a lot of sort of heartbreaking moments in Ocon's Formula One career, and I really don't want him to have another season cut short

because, you know, this wouldn't be the first time. Well, even last year, yeah, Alpine. Yeah, exactly. So fingers crossed for Ocon, he's able to pick up his pace because I'd be sad to see him go. Esty bestie and all that. You know, we're fans of Ockon. Another thing to mention is that Kimmy Antonelli,

no chance of him racing at the Nairberg ring, because that has been blocked. He's not doing it. He was funny because Mercedes said, replied to basically Kimmy Antenelli saying, yeah, I'm going to get my licence next year and do it. It should be fun. And Mercedes, like, no, he was only joking.

and then I saw the clip of Kimi Antonelli saying it. He sounds dead serious and like he's a very excited child wanting to have a go. But Mercedes rightfully were kind of like, no, probably not. And I think it was Bradley Lord who's high up at Mercedes that was quoted as saying maybe when he's won four championships he can have a go, which is obviously joking about Max doing it. But unfortunately for Kimmy, when you go and do these things, you kind of need a lot more credit in the bank.

Max is at that stage. We say this a lot, don't we, with what he says in the media as well, that you kind of get to that point where you are untouchable, and it doesn't really matter what you say or do, because Red Bull aren't going to be like, no, Max, you're not racing at the Norberg Room, we're going to fire you. He can do what he wants. The team need Max more than Max needs the team,

whereas Antonelli, you know, he's leading the championship, he's doing great, but very different stages of his career. I completely agree. Now, let's get into the predictions. It is currently 1811 to Tommy. I did claw back one point last time out, so the deficit is closing. It is my turn to go first for the Canadian Grand Prix.

Right, my good surprise for the Canadian Grand Prix. Remember, it's a sprint weekend as well, lots of predictions to come. My good surprise. George Russell. George Russell, if you do not get me a point this weekend, Get back on the podium, probably win. I reckon that he's got a great chance.

I'll be very upset, mainly for my points, and obviously for George as well. He needs to mount a championship comeback. But he won last year. He was phenomenal last year. And I firmly believe that, you know, there was this whole, oh, well, you know, he's like tennis players, grass court, clay court, all this sort of stuff. I think George likes this track surface and should therefore win Wimbledon. It's so funny, isn't it, that we've gone from whoever goes first getting to pick,

we joke to the start of the season that whoever goes first will pick George Russell to win and get the point. Now it's George Russell good surprise to potentially get a point because he's not been doing well, which is crazy how it's turned because, of course, good surprise, no shocker. I was also going to bag that easy free point potentially as well. And the funny thing is, I thought that you were going first. So I had a backup ready because I was like 100% Tommy's going for George. So what is your backup? Okay, so my backup is a risky one, a very risky one, Fernando Alonzo.

Oh. And yeah, I understand that this is a big ass from Alonzo. Obviously, can't get any worse for Fernando Alonzo. But he's very good around here. Of course, the level of good surprise for Ashton Martin these days would be getting into Q2 running in a top 10 position during the race or something

crazy or just surprising us because it's been so bad and Alonzo is fantastic around this circuit it's been great the last few years with Aston of course doesn't have the same car to deliver that but I'm going for a Fernando Alonzo master class in his green tractor

so I just thought I'd look up the weather because you know you want to just have a little look and I'm actually looking at this right this second so if I go to Sunday. Oh, like rain. Like rain, currently on the forecast for Montreal. So let's see if that one changes anything.

And the funny thing is as well, you said, oh, this is a risky one. I was like, oh, has he gone for what my backup was going to be? Because mine was also a risky one. I was going to go for Audi just as a backup. Like just full balls to the wall. They're going to finish the race, both of them, and they're going to have a great time.

Because it's going to happen at some point. They've had a stinker from reliability side of things. but they are so fast and fragile. It's crazy. For anyone interested in my fantasy exploits. Now I'm obviously trying to do incredibly well. Tell everyone. Tell everyone where you're in the world. Okay, so I'm 38th out of two million players.

Yeah, if you've usually been in this card though. Yeah, yeah. And I've taken a risk this week because Niko Holcombberg is so low price because they've basically had a shocker. Reliability's been terrible. that I've put Holkenberg in my fancy team because it allows me to replace Ferrari with McLaren. So that's the risk I've gone for.

And like you, yeah, it is a risk because Audi seem to be either quite good or just failing. Yeah, I think Hulk scored me minus 20 last time out, so good luck with that one. So I need McLaren to score 20 more points of Ferrari and then it saved me. It's funny, I have two teams.

One that was my main team, the other one was my version 2 team, and my version 2 team is doing better than my main team. But that's where I have Charles LeClaire, as my main guy and then like slower drivers and then two great teams. So I've times threed Charles LeClaire this weekend on that team. So come on, Charles. Come on.

You've got to pick it up, my guy. Right. Let's head to a big flop. So a big flop I have gone for Charlotte Clare. Take that flag off. And yeah, somehow I've ended up with your flag when we did our recording. So this is yours. I need to give it you back.

That's my flag? Yeah. I did wonder where my flag had gone. I was like, wait, I'm pretty sure I brought it. But when did you steal my flag? When we did our recording for the super potting tour where we were in that little toy car, I ended up back in my car when we recorded it near me.

But yeah, so big flop. I've gone for Charlotte Clare. And no disrespect to the guy is simply a bit of vibes and also that I saw a stat that basically he's got the worst qualifying head to head at this track of his whole career. And we all know how good Charlotte is. qualifying. It's the strongest asset.

And maybe like George Russell at Miami, maybe this isn't one of his favorites. So you're telling me this is Charlotte-Clau's Clay Court. That's what you're telling me right now. Yeah, exactly. So I've gone for Shal. Yeah. Because maybe not his favorite track. Honestly, I switched off the moment you said,

Charlotte-Cla. Don't care about your reasoning. And the fact that you got the flag had a smile on your face and said it is quite sickening, to be honest with you. How dare you touch my flag? Okay. Good. Well, no one asked.

So good one for that. My big flop. I just want to go for Max now, even though I wasn't going to go for Max. No, I think I can predict it. But it's close enough. Kimmy Antonelli. Yeah.

Three poles, three wins. In the last three. Little Kimmy Antonelli P4. Flops in. It might even be P2, to be honest with you. We'll see how we feel. We'll see how we're trying to close the gap. If they were bonus points for predicting each other's predictions,

that'd be 2-0 right now. Look, again, no disrespect to Kimmy. He may well just continue this incredible run of form. I watched an amazing video, actually, of him that he posted on his Instagram today. That was kind of like a behind the scenes, day in the life type thing with Kimmy. Actually, it was a week in the life, I think. And it was awesome to see a little bit behind the scenes. There's also a part of me that felt sad because there are drivers like Lando, for example, that used to do that.

But now because he's sort of taken a step back from social media, you don't really see that as much. But for Kimmy, you know, I really enjoyed that. However, I have gone for big flop because I think George was much better last year than pretty much everyone. So let's see if I can argue a point there. Now I mention it is a sprint weekend, which means we head to sprint pole position. George Russell. George, my guy. Please get me back in this championship.

I don't want him to dominate any of this because it will make for rubbish watching. I want it to all be very close, but George, by a few thousands, gets it in every session. Okay, sprint poll, George Russell. Okay, sprint poll, I was going to go for George Russell. It's actually, I feel like there's another thing here. So you've got the predicting the other person's prediction as a point or not a point. Yeah. But also, I don't know.

Yeah, I was trying to think if there would be another mechanic there as well. But I think that is a great thing. If we continue to have a Mercedes domination, the whole rest of the. year, it could be a battle of predictions where I predict your, oh, honestly, it's like that brain meme with the sort of like sciencey, sci-fi, whatever. I hope everyone likes it because I genuinely do think that as, since we introduce this into the predictions, it's the best addition to predictions that we can't go for the same thing. Because the, the kind of, one of just making it more interesting, but two, like some of the

hilarious plays we've done as well of like trying to change each other. There's predictions and stuff. Maybe there's a card we can play at one point during the predictions where we go, I play your prediction card and then it can sort of like get you a bonus point for the week. Maybe that's what? Maybe if Mercedes do, maybe like every other round is like a non-Messadis round and you're not allowed to go for them or something. Or like there's like a non-Messides. We're always open to ideas.

I know a lot of you love predictions. I certainly do. It's probably my favorite thing to record. So get in any sort of, yeah, thoughts that you have. Okay, this is difficult because I know the easy option is just go for Antonelli, but I do think McLaren are going to be quite good. I'm going to go for Antonelli. I'm going to go for Antonelli.

I do think Mercedes still have that qualifying edge, so I'm going to go for Antonelli's Sprint pole. Okay. I also think Mercedes have that edge, and I think Mercedes are bringing lots of stuff to Montreal, so they may well have a bigger edge than they had previously. Let's go to sprint winner, Tom Bellingham. Sprint winner, I've gone for Oscar Piastri. Not gone for a Mercedes.

I've gone for McLaren. I think if they can continue their amazing starts and in a short race, a bit like we saw last time out, they can deliver. And yeah, I'm hopeful of McLaren. There is that part in the back of my mind, like you just said, that was it all just the fact that Mercedes haven't bought their upgrades,

and it wasn't a circuit that really suited them as much. But, yeah, I'm going to go for Oscar Piastri and put a McLaren to win the sprint. Okay. Sprint winner for myself. I've decided to mix it up a little bit. George Russell. When you're 1811 down.

No risks. Oh, my God. Tommy, look, I'm happy to throw a Shao LaClair in occasionally, but not when I'm seven points down after four rounds. George, please. I've put every egg so far in the George Russell basket of hype. So do I need to go into more explanation? I've already explained twice why I think he's going to do pretty well.

So there you go. Another one for George Russell. Now, poll position for the main race. George Russell. I'm sorry. I'm not sorry. I'm not sorry in the slightest. I'm more competitive than I care about content.

So, George Russell, poll position. Give it to me. Please. Yeah, you're welcome. But I think it's funny in itself. Yeah, yeah. The competition is good. Like, that's the whole beauty of this series.

Exactly. And you know, I'm openly competitive. You claim to not be, but actually deep down, the end of last year made you honestly on the set on fire. It was just the gutting end to the year where I basically, you know, Lewis Hamilton, 2007ed it, where I was leading all the way and then went into the gravel trap on. You did. You really did.

God, what a moment that was. Anyway, back to this one. Yeah, George Russell, parol position. So pole position had Russell. I did have Russell. So you had a lot of Russell ready to go. He's going to do rubbish now, isn't he, after we've all got all in on Russell?

I'm just going to mix it up this time. I've got a seven-point lead. I'm going to go for Lando Norris, poll position. Why not? I mean it's fair. He nearly won Miami. I do, yeah, I do think that McLaren are going to be strong again, particularly, you know, in comparison to Ferrari. I think it will be between Mercedes and McLaren again.

And, yeah, I'm going to go for Paul Philando. All right. Fair, it's a very fair prediction, but it just doesn't be out George for me. Right, now let's get a third position in the main race, Tommy. P3 I had gone Lando Norris and I'm going to stick with that

even though I've now predicted in pole position which I wasn't originally going to but you spread your bets exactly you've got to you've got to in these things I do love how people in the comments sometimes don't understand the game the gamesmanship that's going on here

that you cannot back unless you're me an entire one way because you could easily score no points for the entire weekend so sometimes a Charlotte Club pole but a big flop. Yeah. You're covering your bases, aren't you?

Exactly. So yeah, I'll go for Lando, P3, P3 year. P3 year. My P3 year is Oscar Pistri. I believe that McLaren will be the second fastest team. Ferrari last time out brought a lot of upgrades. I'm hoping for their sake. They're able to fine tune, hone it in, be slightly better around Canada.

But for me, The only team that I can see catching Mercedes R. McLaren at this stage. So I'm happy to be proved wrong. I'm happy for a Charlotte-Clauer victory if I score no points here. Absolutely will trade that off until I see that Tommy has a 12-point lead, and in which case, maybe not. But Oscar Piastri, P3. In second place, I have gone for Lando Norris.

That is correct. As you would have heard 30 seconds ago, don't go down one, particular route, but I am doing that. Lada Norris, second place. So second place I've gone for Oscar Piastri. I was considering changing it. Now we've done the predictions and how it's going to lead into P1. But interesting, yeah, we've both locked into a one Mercedes potentially on the podium rather

than two. But yeah, I'll stick with my original. It has happened in the last two races as well. It has indeed, yeah. So I'm going to stick with Piastri in P2. Okay. In first position for the Canadian Grand Prix, Tom Bellingham. I have gone for George Russell. Stop me having the clean sweep. That's going to be the only session he wins now. Yeah, potentially. No, I've gone for George Russell first. I do think he's going to bounce back.

I think it's been overstated how poor his start to the season has been. has been, you know, Miami was a disaster. There's no, you can't, can't deny that. But the other ones, it's not gone his way. And I think he'll be much more competitive here. So I've gone for George Russell for P1. My first position, because I've blocked myself entirely here, give me Antonelli.

Now I'm thinking, how does he flop and still win? That's my big question here. well we've already confirmed that I'm not going to Cleanswick the entire weekend for points but look I'm happy because if it doesn't go George's way Kimmy might win and therefore I maybe score one point so that's the way I'm doing it I'm spreading it slightly because as much as I wanted to say Charle-Claure I just don't believe it especially after the head-to-head thing that you brought up which has made me very upset for this coming weekend so yeah Kimmy Antonelli who's to say that he can't get

four on the trot. Now let's go to our new feature for this season, the P-WAT, the F-WAT, which basically is a random position that is generated on the spot, and I'm the one that needs to go first for this. So Tommy, as soon as you say the position, I have to say a person. Okay, between P-4 and P-22, we're going to generate a number now, and it is P-9. Pierre-Gasli. Pierre Gassley P9, thank you. Ollie Bearman.

Oh, that's a driver that's, yeah, sprung to mind. Didn't score points, did you in the last two, but yeah, gone for Ollie. Lovely stuff. Now, our one crazy prediction. My one crazy prediction genuinely had this as well, not even trying to cover your your predictions to kind of null them. But my one crazy prediction was that Antonelli would not be on the Grand Prix podium. Because obviously he's had a second, first, first, first.

Interesting, because I have also gone for something to do with Antonelli in the crazy prediction. That it will be on every stop bit of the podium. He will clone himself twice for second and third. No, that is not what I've gone for. Mine is, Kimmy Antonelli does not top a single competitive session for the main weekend. Let's not do both. Main weekend is enough. So he doesn't top Q1, Q2, Q3 or the race, doesn't win the race.

Okay, so his sprint's not counting. I was going to throw it in then. I was like, why would I do that to myself? Because that's a lot of sessions. He's going to top SQ2 and then I'm not going to get a point. Okay, there's still a lot of sessions, isn't it? Yeah, exactly. So there you go.

That is that. We now head to. to our Patreon prediction, where if you join our P1 Patreon, you get lovely ad-free listening, you get early access to P1 live-shared tickets, you get access to the Discord, and within that, you can submit a prediction to help one of us score a point.

So I am going to lock in Philly Burgers, which is Alonzo Top 10 finish near the Sprint or Race. Wow. Okay. I'd take it. I hope you're right. Yeah, I mean, that would be utterly insane. The fact is I literally said, I was, I tossed and turned and changed my mind about six times over that. But I was like, you know what?

Screw it. Because that would be generational if it came in. Okay. The Patreon prediction I've gone for is Kales, which is an Alpine finishes in the top five in either the sprint or main race. Because I had contemplated a little colapinto, good surprise, actually. But, no, I went for Alonzo. And yeah, there's some good Patreon predictions this week.

I wonder if you were looking at one I did, which was that a couple of patrons went for Anthony Lernerley Crushes into Wall of Champions. And that's something that I could really see happening. And the commentator is just milking it being like, well, it's going to be a future champion. You just could see it happening. Yeah, I've got a bit of, yeah, just that whole. I could just see it coming. Yeah, you just that whole commentary on.

Yeah, I'm good with that. So, Kimmy, can you not do that, please? Just for the sake of our own listening. Okay. So we now go to the big Constructors Championship, the family top three. It is currently four all to the Gallagher's. No, I'm kidding. It's four all.

So it's a draw. But I just wanted to say that because it feels like we're still winning. But you scored two points, I think, last time out, which is very sad. Tommy, I think we're going to start with you because I haven't alerted any of my family members. And so I need to tell one of them right now. Message them and I can ring the only family member I have to be able to do it who is leaving the house. In two seconds, which is my mum, who I don't think has done a family prediction yet. In fact, last time, in fact, I'll wait to tell her this when I...

I'm also ringing my mum to tell her that I'm about to ring her. Hi, mum. You are on the P1 podcast. Hello. Oh, okay. Are you ready? I've got jet lag. No, I'm actually pretty good. Landed yesterday and landed at a good time that basically, yeah, pretty much no jet lag.

Now, I got something to mention, actually. The last time, I was wondering whether I'd called you before on family predictions and realized that I had, but the last time I called you, you got my three-year-old niece instead of you to do the predictions. So can I just confirm these are your predictions this time? They are mine. And not them of a toddler, even though Daisy did very well. No, no, no, no, these are mine. But just very quickly, congratulations to Matt.

Oh, lovely. For winning last year, thank you. Matt says for winning last year's predictions. Amazing. Okay. Mom, can I have your P3, please? My P3 is Charles. Okay, not been mentioned other than my big flop, so interesting.

P2. Okay. Oscar. Okay. And your P1, please. I'm going to go for George. Okay. Because I think Kimmy could go into the Wall of Champions

because he's not as experienced. No way. We were talking about that literally 30 seconds ago. That is so weird. It's my room bug. That's my feeling. That's my reasoning anyway. Okay.

Amazing. Thanks, man. All right then. Okay, bye. Bye. Wow. That is crazy. That is amazing.

She must have known. She must have sensed it. It's a strong set of predictions. It's a strong set of predictions, especially with the fact that I think Kimmy might block this weekend. Now, my mum was absolutely devastated by the fact I've just called her. She said, well, I haven't been following it in the last few days. So this could be anything or anyone.

So here we go. Come on, mum. Lock in. It's for all. I know only gave you two minutes worth of time. I was hoping for Georgina Fernando Alontera prediction, to be honest. No, she's at work. Okay.

Hi, mum. Welcome to the P1 podcast. I know I've given you roughly 100 seconds in order to come up with your predictions, but I am ready. Are you ready? I am ready, actually. I just have some in my mind, so I will go for it. Oh, hold on.

Let me, I thought you're about to say it. Let me, let me suspenseful say in P3, Mum. P3, Norris. Okay. P2. Russell. P1. Antonelli.

Oh, you've gone for an Antonelli. Four on the bounce when I have literally said the entire podcast that Kim is going to do terrible. So one of us is going to do all right. Wow. Yeah, I think he'll do well. Although, to be fair, I did also go for Ancenelli to win just to spread my bets a little bit. So, okay, mum, very good. Very good. Enjoyed that. Thanks, Mom. Love you.

Okay. Love you. Bye. Don't mind that. Strong set of predictions. That's a strong, yeah. Mercedes 1T. She's just Google, like, you know, she's got Mercedes. Chat GPD. Who's top three, please? Awesome stuff. Very, very strong

for both of the families. And that brings us to the end of the predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix. Seven points behind, need to start. I'm going to be rooting for George. No, like no tomorrow in the watch longs. Of course, we're going to be back with all of our watchalongs as normal

in our setups and our glorious sounding and looking setups. I'm so happy to be home in the comfort of just knowing, hopefully. I don't know, I can't believe I was about to say knowing that the internet's going to work. But, you know, that's what I thought. So Tommy, how excited are you?

What's your final thoughts? Final thoughts are just finally some F1 to watch with all you guys. So join us for the watch along because it's going to be cinema. Watch along. I mean, this is. Watch along. Several of them. Well, yeah, exactly.

We're kind of going all in. No race, like, what is it, two in eight weeks, but both of them are sprints at least. So, yeah, looking forward to this one a lot. And, yeah, it feels like a long time since we've sat down and watched some F1, even though it was only three weeks ago. It's crazy what? when you've had triple headers and things the last few years, how a three-week break feels like just months on end, basically.

Exactly. And as much as we were watching it not that long ago, balancing things on bins to make it look good in the hotel room is very different to actually doing it in your own setup. So very happy to be back. I hope you're looking forward to everybody. We'll see you soon. Lots of love.

Bye. Goodbye. Okay. P1 is a Stack production and part of the Acast's creator network.