P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2026 Japanese GP predictions

Episode Date: March 25, 2026

We're back, with one final set of predictions before the enforced month-long break. And Tommy's joining us from Portugal for loopholes deluxe, while Matt's recent concussion has scrambled his own choices!You can get 20% off an annual membership to our Patreon! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. We are here. It's race week again until we have a big old school holiday. We, of course, have two cancelled races in April, which means we have the whole of April off to mull in our thoughts and wonder what is going to happen for the rest of this Formula One season. But thankfully, we have a race weekend to enjoy it. Japan, Suzuki, legendary Tommy. You're on holiday.

I am. Are you having a good time? I am. Yeah, the internet's holding up. I can see you moving. I tried the internet in this Airbnb we've got. And when I checked last night, it was the speed, I did a speed test and it said, 0.02 megabytes. So I'm now... That's not going to do it. No, exactly. I was talking to earlier as a JPEG,

but now I've gone and tethered, it seems to be, I can see you moving at least. So it's good time. This is good progress. We're doing something. We're having a conversation. That's all that matters. Now, we need to get into some news before we get into our predictions, which I know a lot of you quite like, a little bit of a roundup of what's been going on after the last race week, as it's been a few days.

Now, the biggest bombshell has to be Jonathan Wheatley, the team principal of Audi, leaving after two races, due to personal reasons the team has said. However, he is also heavily rumoured to be joining us. Martin because essentially Adrian Newey is not stepping down as such, but just moving his role. We never thought he was going to be a full-time team principal anyway. We also did not think he was going to be taken out of that position after two races. But clearly the whole problems that are going on at Aston Martin mean that they need his thinking power elsewhere.

And that opens up a slot for Jonathan Wheatley to essentially go there. And it's not confirmed. It's not happening right now, but it's insanely heavily rumoured and Jonathan Wheatley could well be joining Aston Martin's team principal after we don't know how long. But that is such a crazy story after everything we've heard about him believing in the Audi journey and this, that and the other. 100%. I mean, we were at the Audi launch, weren't we? We got to speak to him. And within two races, the confirmed news is nothing about Adrian Newey yet. but Jonathan Wheely has been confirmed as leaving Audi,

which they're not going to get rid of him unless he's going elsewhere, are they? Because he's been a fantastic team principal. And clearly, Aston Martin believed that, and I think rightly so, that having a proper, you know, front and center team principle is the best way to go. Adrian Newey is an unbelievable, you know, character in Formula One. But he, for me, he's never a team principal.

Like he is his genius is sitting there with a notepad on the grid and sketching the other cars and writing everything down and then going back to his drawing board and creating, you know, incredible things in Formula One. He's not the front and center where he gets all the heat having to do, you know, media sessions and particularly just think of the stress that he's going to be going through as well now with everything that's going on at Aston Martin getting bombarded with questions. What's gone wrong? What's gone wrong? he I've never seen Adrian Nui looks so stressed and everything that's going on so I'm not surprised if that you know him taking a step back so we'll have to wait and see as to when this announcement

if it ever comes for Jonathan Wheatley to Aston Martin happens but that is what is expected and yeah I mean look Jonathan maybe wanted an Aston Martin role but it wasn't up for grabs and now it has come up for grabs due to the problems at the team and he's taking it with both hands. But either way, there's some very expensive contract negotiations and contract ending clauses and things like that, I'm sure. Another thing to talk about, which I'm sure, Tommy,

you would love to talk about, but also hate to talk about, is the fact that Max Verstappen finally won again at the Nürberg ring, but then got disqualified. So if you have been living under a rock, Vastappen was racing last weekend in the four-hour. of Nürbergering and essentially he won. He got pole by two seconds. He won by over a minute with his other two teammates.

And essentially, everything looked fine and dandy. You know, he won by a mile, woo-hoo. And then got disqualified because his team used an extra set of tires than they should have, which feels like a slight rookie error for some, for a team that is hosting the four-time Formula One world champion. But there's part of me that sits there and goes, does Max really care? I'm sat there and thinking he's won the race, he's shown that he's got it, he's been disqualified for a very small infringement of using an extra set of tires

over the course of the entire weekend. And it's not like he's probably particularly bothered by the actual result. I don't know. For me, that's the way I sit on it. Yeah, definitely. I think if it had it been the 24 hours of Nureberg Ring, which is obviously the big race that he's kind of working towards with with this and that's the kind of something in the endurance racing triple crown that he really wants to win

then it kind of hurts it more and it's not to like you know disrespect those races but realistically max is there to enjoy himself yes he of course wants to win he's a he's a winner but for him to be able to kind of go out have some fun uh you know his his engine isn't uh losing power halfway down the straight and he's not having to lift and coast into corners and going around the Nureberg ring probably having a wonderful time and enjoying it a lot more than Formula One which I think he's probably quite vocally said while he was there unsurprisingly been bombarded with questions about the new regs and things again but it kind of I think it's you know it's scratching an itch that he's not getting in Formula One right now exactly and to name

his two teammates Danny Junckerdella I don't know if that's exactly how I pronounce it Jules Gounon. Also, don't know if that's how I pronounced it, but those are the two teammates that he had in the team. Congratulations to them for two hours and then they got disqualified. That was the team. I can't just have a nice thing this year. This is my year of pain, isn't it? Even Max wins a race. Oh, he's disqualified, great. Disqualified. This is what it's like. You cannot celebrate a four-hour win round the Nuremberg ring these days. It's a tough time to be Tom Bellingham this year. And then another bit of news, which is Japan related, which is the new liveries have started to roll out.

There may be a few more after that we've, after we've recorded. But as of, we've had V-carb that looks absolutely sensational. I really, really like it. And then also, I don't know how Hasse has improved a 10 out of 10 livery, but they have.

It's, again, I absolutely love it. It's like a Godzilla theme. And look, I'm a big, big fan of both of those liveries. Mercedes has literally just. drop within 30 minutes, I think, of us recording. But that's more of just a front wing with their kind of... The wolf thing on that they've been doing with their merchandise. Which has been more of a hit and miss, I think, the wolf merchandise.

But the Hass and V-carb, oh yes. Agreed. The V-cab in particular is awesome. The red reminds me, actually, of the old Toyota livery with the red splat, paint-splat kind of thing on the side. Very cool. Unusual why they've done it. I don't know if they thought they were still.

had a Honda engine in the back. But for whatever reason, yeah, they wanted to do something fun. We've seen so many more kind of relaxed rules about liveries now, and it almost feels like you get won almost every race, a special livery or at least every month with these special designs. The Haas one is also awesome. I really like that. The Merck, not for me.

I like some of the stuff that they've, you know, released with, I think it's Y3, which normally do some really, really cool stuff, but the Wolf, not a big fan of that kind of merch they released and then had the, on the front wing as well, didn't they? But it's a good promo for their new thing. It was quite fun to see Toto Wolf doing a very cool looking kind of fashion shoot on Instagram, which I thought was AI when I saw it, to be honest. Now, let's get into predictions. It's 8-4 to Tom Bellingham.

He is steaming clear at the moment. However, I plan on bouncing back in my delirious state. I feel as though, you know, perhaps logic will happen because there's so much delusion and delirium that it turns out to be all correct. And so, yeah, let's see how this one goes. Let's get into a good surprise. It is me to go first, and I've thought about this for so, so long.

It makes perfect sense to me. My good surprise is Red Bull, dropping a team, dropping Red Bull, straight into the mix, because they are bringing upgrades, ladies and gentlemen. And also, I don't think they're as bad as what we've seen in the first two races. Australia, I don't think we quite saw what was possible. Max, of course, went from last to P6. And generally it's not been a, Red Bull starts, for example. If they just get off the line on Sunday, I'm claiming this point because they've really struggled.

But I think, yeah, I think that they'll have a better weekend in Japan. Max is phenomenal around Suzuki, let's not forget. And I'm hoping Hadja doesn't let me down because I've gone for a team. Very interesting because I was, I'm going and aring about going for Red Bull myself or even Max, because yeah I echo your thoughts and maybe we didn't see I think China was just a complete disaster for them whereas of course you know how join Australia did a good job to BP3 we didn't get to see what Max could do in normal qualifying

so they should be better in theory I hope of course as a Max fan because it's not been fun so far my good surprise I've gone for also a team I've gone for McLaren and it's not even the Matt Gallagher tactic of, well, if they start the race, they are a good surprise. I genuinely think McLaren will do a lot better. They are learning.

They're going to be, you know, learning more from that Mercedes power unit and how to unlock it each race. They're learning how to start the car. And if they can start the car, they're on for a winner. But, you know, particularly, I think Lando, his sprint was very, very strong.

when we did actually see them race put in a great performance so yeah I think McLaren could surprise us this weekend so both gone for teams and I'm in full agreement as we will continue through these predictions that I do believe that McLaren should be closer and providing they can start the car and make everything work then I feel as though they'll at least be able to challenge Ferrari if not be ahead of them let's go to a big flop Tommy who have you gone for? Big flop I have gone for Pierre Gasley. They had a fantastic result last time out. Alpine looked much more competitive. How much of that was the Mercedes grunt that they had

down that enormous straight in China? And I'll be honest with this one. I really struggled with who I was going to go for a big flop and I had to pick someone so I went for Gasly. I nearly picked Antonelli but I was like I picked Russell last time so I didn't. I just didn't. I just didn't go for Antonelli. So yeah, I've gone for Pierre Gasley, of course, had a great result last time out. And yeah, we'll see how he does in that close midfield pack. Okay, very interesting.

Gassley, good luck to you. It's funny. I think we've had almost the exact same thoughts in the first two, because my big flop is Kimmy Antonelli. I'm not even kidding. That's something that I was just convinced. looking at Suzuki that it could well breed a little Kimmy Antonelli mistake.

That's what I'm thinking. It might well not come true. Kimmy may well end up winning the race. There's no disrespect, as we always know with these big flops. It's purely based on vibes. And for, yeah, I think, of course, Antonelli, race winner these days.

You know, finishes P2. I'm trying to call it. 30 seconds behind George Russell could be big flop. But look, I'm trying to find as many loop holes as possible on four points down so just let me let me be

but yeah for me Kimi Antonelli is my big flop pole position who is winning on the Saturday so I am locking in unsurprisingly

George Russell I'm going to take a George Russell poll position because I think that Mr Saturday will perform of course he did not get pole position last time out but that was because of are plagued with a lot of issues.

I think George will have the advantage and will continue to have the advantage on a Saturday throughout most of this season. So it's free real estate at this point. I have to go for George when I have the pick. So there you go. Oh. So I'd gone for George Russell, unsurprisingly.

I am now unsure whether I go for Antonelli or someone else. I am going to go for Kimmy Antonelli. You could change it to Antonelli. It makes sense, doesn't it? Let's be honest. remembered he's in a Mercedes. Because he's in a Mercedes. Mercedes, I do think Mercedes are a lot stronger in qualifying.

So you're kind of insane not to go for them for qualifying, particularly with how much, you know, we've seen with their advantage. And in the race, are they holding something back? I don't know. We'll never know. Maybe there's a lot of rumours, isn't there, about whether they've just got their engine turned down and they'll let Ferrari lead for a little bit and then go see you later. We're off now.

but yeah i'll go for antonelli for pole position okay let's get into the top three for the race starting with p three tom bellingham okay so p three i have gone for lando norris going for a mcclaren on the podium i've gone for good surprise and yeah i'm also putting a mcclaren on the podium which maybe is surprising in itself based on how it's only been ferraris and Merck's all year so far. So yeah, going for Lando P3. P3, yeah. I was

going to go for Lando Norris. So I now have to change mine. I am going to back Charles Lecler. I was going to put Oscar Piestri, but instead I'm like no, surely

I can still believe in Ferrari being second fast as three races into the season. enough that being the second fastest car. Hopefully, fingers crossed. Ferrari can continue to bring good form and there is a good chance that the Ferrari team, either Charle or Lewis, will be on the podium.

So I'm going to back my boy and I'm going to put him third despite the fact I will regret this when Oscar Piastri finishes in third place, undoubtedly. Now let's go to P2. Yeah. Right. I am going to lock in.

Is it going to be a Mercedes one, two? This is the danger here. This is big danger. Huge danger. This is the danger prediction. Because then games can be played. My second place. Do I lock in the fact that Anthony is going to flop?

Hmm. Very interesting. Oh, this is tough. This is really, really tough now. I've made it more tough than I needed it to be. I am going to lock in in P2. Landon Norris. Landon Norris is getting second position

because I was going to put him third and second doesn't feel that much higher despite the fact they're going up against a rocket ship. So second place, Lando Norris. P2, I'm going to go for Kimmy Antonelli. So I'm going to take it. You have gone for Lando.

Yeah, both put Lando on the podium is maybe quite a surprise. Yeah, I'll go for Antonelli because I want points. You want points? You think Kimmy P2 is absolutely locked in. Right, okay, that is... You're regretting it now, aren't you? What have I done?

Because I now get P1, yeah. Yeah, no, I've... That's how little my brain is working right now. I was celebrating internally that I'm going to go first for P1, but I'm not. That's you. So, good, right? I'm throwing the championship. Yeah. No, no, I reckon I get two points

That'd be unfair. Concussion. P1, Tommy. Who have you gone for? I'm playing my concussion token. You have like an asterisk next to your name like Concussed. When we do our prediction graphic on Instagram, it would be like Matt has gone for London or SP2, asterisk, concussed.

It's like when you try and set a lap time at a cart track but it's in the wet. Yeah, yeah. Brackets W. me, concussed. Bracket C. So P1, no surprise. I've gone for George Russell. I've locked it in. He was very, very, obviously had amazing start to the year.

He was dominant in the sprint. Not as good in China. We thought he was going to catch Antonelli. And yeah, I think Russell will be very, very strong around here. Of course, no surprise. Okay. This really is a very interesting. interesting prediction now because

I'm so utterly convinced Antonelli's not going to win the Japanese Grand Prix like me last time I did that something else but then he did see I did that with I was so convinced and I was like oh just Max whatever and then

Antonelli won it's true but I don't think Antonelli's going to win in P1 I am locking in Lewis Hamilton Hamilton's winning the Japanese Grand Prix well done to Lewis and well done to my points tally when I score none when he finishes fifth. But that is, that's what I'm, that's what I'm going to go for.

So there you go. Lewis Hamilton, P1, let's live the dream. I can't believe that's my top three. I've literally not got a Mercedes driver in my top three. Oh, wow. What is wrong with me? All right, good. Tommy, have you loaded up the P-Wat machine because we're heading to P-Wat?

Okay, the P-Wat machine. Let's see if Portuguese data, mobile data, can manage to randomly number generate without me disappearing off this call. Here we go. We have. Maybe. Okay, you're ready. That's a good one. P20.

Could be a retirement. P20. So who's going first? It's you first. Oh, it could be a retirement. It could be a retirement. Very much could be. Oh, okay.

Franco Colapinto. I'm going to go for a Fernando Alonzo rage quit. That's an added caveat. Fair enough. Yeah. Ah, yeah, you've gone for a very safe bet that is. Oh, God. I am having an absolute disaster.

I hate all of my predictions. And I want to re-record this entire podcast. But it's fine. It'll be funny to look back on when I'm 15 points behind. going into the next race in over a month's time where I can just stir on it for the rest of April. Good times. Right, let's go to one crazy prediction, Tommy.

What have you got for you? My crazy prediction is Ferrari. Do not lead on the first lap. They're three from three so far, of course. So yeah, that's what I've gone from. Oh, yeah, they actually are. That is a disgusting loophole. That is one of the most disgusting loopholes

I've ever had in my entire life. Right, my one crazy prediction, This might be the most insane thing I'll ever say all year. The Mercedes pole margin is less than a quarter of a second to the next team. Oh, okay. So the largest so far is three and a half tenths to Hamilton, and that was with George Russell having no battery and tires and obviously qualifying second.

I'm fully convinced that in China he would have been on pole by a bigger margin. So there you go. That is my crazy prediction. Let's see if it comes true. Fingers crossed. I remember last time out in Japan in 2020. we had a very, very close qualifying between Max and the two McLarence. Let's hope we get something of a similar timing interval.

Okay, Patreon prediction. I am going to go first with this one, and hopefully a Vestappen can get me a W, because I've gone for Josh Vestappan's Patreon prediction. If you're not a P1 Patreon member, please come and join. You get lots of additional benefits, add free listening, access to our Discord,

early access to P1 live show tickets, and lots more. and this is part of it. And yeah, Joshua Stappen has gone for McLaren on the podium. So we've gone for that because I, even though I, to be fair, I have got Lando P2 there. So McLaren on the podium,

Patreon prediction, locked in. Oh, and yeah, we've both gone for McLaren on the podium. Both put Norris on the podium. So interesting. I actually nearly went for that one as well. But I have gone for Hazar. And hopefully I'll be saying Hazar afterwards. Hazar!

I'm correct. All 22 cars will start the race. What in the loophole? We're going to loop holes. We're going to loopholes crazy right now. Fair enough. Yeah, I mean, look, we're six DNSes from two races, which is insane. When was the last time?

I'm trying for an Aston Martin. Come on. Yeah. Can they start the car? Jonathan Wheatley can cook something up? If he's there. If he's there, we don't know. Okay, all right.

That, yeah, I, there's no sort of Michael Masseying going on right now from you at all. You're four points clear and you're like, let's make it ten. But I appreciate it, competitive. Tommy wants a big old lead and then he can start. If I do, if I do outscore you by like eight points or something, grace will be doing all of the predictions next time out. Perfect. Sounds great to me.

Let's do that for the rest of the season. Maybe I'll have a chance. All right, let's go to family top three. The only thing where the Gallagher's are currently winning because we are three, two ahead. Let me see if my dad, I've dropped my phone. Let me see if my dad is ready to talk because maybe he will speak some sense into some predictions.

All right. Come on, Dad. Please don't also be concussed. Come on. You can do it. Lock in a Mercedes-Wante. Hello. How are you? Hi, Dad. Not great. How are you? Not too bad, thank you. Good, perfect. So I've laid down a lot of sort of concussed predictions.

I'm hoping you will be able to speak some sense on behalf of... Well, I've got to keep up with mum, I'm nice. Yeah, she scored some good points. So we need you to lock in. So in third place for the Japanese Grand Prix is... Charles LeCirk. All right, same as me. Love the little sigh afterwards.

That felt good. You felt confident with that one. In second place. Lewis Hamilton. Wow, it's Ferrari double podium. I also went for that, even though I hate my predictions. And in first place, George Russell. Okay.

All right. Where does Kimmy Antonelli feature? He's fourth. Oh, he's four. Okay. That will give me a big flop because I flopped him this week. All right. Thank you so much, Dad.

Appreciate you getting involved. Lots of love. Have a great pub. Thanks, Dad. Bye. Love you. Bye. Okay, that was quick. It was quick fire. And we've gone for double Ferrari and then a George Russell win. All right. I don't mind it. It's not bad. Right. I am going to get my dad. I've just seen him walk past the window actually because I'm on holiday with them and he's in a William shirt.

Is he in his swimming trunks? No, he's in a William. He's suitable for the podcast. Of course he's in a Williams top. He absolutely loves it. I know. I brought him some back from the little pop-up we did. There's some Williams merch, but I'm going to go get him. Come sit next to you. Come on. Here we go.

Right, two seconds. Matt, how are you? I'm not going to be able to hear it. Hello. We have the brand new Williams team principal on the line. We do. Hi, Matt. How are you?

I hope you've got some nice cool Williams gear on. Let's have a long. No, I'm afraid. Michael Schumacher gear, I'm afraid, until I die. How's your holiday? Very nice. Thanks, Matt. Very nice.

Yes. Wonderful. You've had enough time to deliberate on your top three. So let's get into it. It's three, two, to the Gallagher's. The boring Bellingham's are behind. So how boring are you going to be this week, Dean? Who have you gone for in P3?

I think it's bold Bellingham's rather than mundane Matt's predictions. Okay, okay, I like it. I've been thinking about that one. Okay. Yeah, yeah. The bold prediction. So third, I'm going to go for Antonelli. Antonelli and P3

Okay, in second place, please Much to your delight I will go LeCler second Wow, Lecler beats Antonelli I don't mind it And in first position Lewis Hamilton

Oh my God I've also gone for a Hamilton That's so funny And I hate my predictions So a Ferrari won two I thought I've got to make his smile At some point

So you know Was Alex Albon Just fourth sadly Was that? Did they just miss out on the podium? I was going to say wearing wonderful Williams gear, but I'm afraid it's sort of worrying William's gear at the moment. Oh, wow.

Oh, wow. There's lots of alliteration going on here. I love it. I have to hope that they improve. But good to see again, Matt. Nice to see you too. Have a great holiday. Yeah, and you.

Well, not you. You're not on holiday. But you know what I mean? Have a nice time. Cheers, Matt. Bye. Okay. Grace is at the door.

your dad did that and you like when you're like a flight the ticket counter and you go they have a nice flight and you say and you yeah no classic the the social media uh real base grace grace is here i'm going to get her to do her top three this doesn't count i just just for banter let's hear it it counts towards my tally yeah okay right okay grace who's going to finish third who's going to finish third in japan um max the step it okay just happen. Who's finishing second? Um, clear against me.

I wonder who's gonna win. Who's winning the Japanese Grand Prix? Luce Habitant. Oh my word. Three people have gone for Hamilton. I think Hamilton's gonna win. If Hamilton doesn't win now after three people have predicted him.

Thank you, Grace. That would be mental. Wow. Thank you so much, Grace. Hamilton is, uh, wow. How is Hamilton? come out on top in your dad's mine and braces. Maybe for about two years and now it's three people have gone for him.

He's got his podium. It's now right. He's getting the win now. I mean, yeah, he's not starting the race, is he, after this? Let's be truly honest with our predictions and how they usually go. I was 99% convinced who were getting Colapinto first there. Yeah, I thought so as well. Then she said Lewis Hamilton.

She's adding to her roster of drivers she knows. it's it's impressive it's impressive to see right that is it predictions done and dusted thank you for tuning into a very chaotic episode i hope you've enjoyed tommy's of course on holiday uh his dad has wished me a good holiday so now i now need to go book one uh you just get straight on a plane and go my final thoughts uh my final thoughts are just uh i'm sure every single person on this podcast is saying they're very glad you're okay. So I will echo what everyone's probably thinking and glad you're, you know, doing all right, even if you've not put Mercedes on the podium. So I think maybe just get a concussion test. The funniest thing is, is that I guarantee there has been requests for that even

with me not doing that over the last three years of doing P1. So it wouldn't be the first or last time people are asking for my head to be tested. So there you go. But thank you, Tommy. I appreciate that. And we will see you this weekend. You'll be back home, won't you, for the proper live streams and things like that. So thank God, because you're literally on just turtle internet. And that is it. We will see you very soon. Thank you, everybody.

Lots of love. Take care. Bye. Bye. P1 is a Stack production and part of the ACAST creator network.