P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our 2026 Spanish GP predictions

Episode Date: September 9, 2026

We're back with another fresh round of predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix! It's our first spin around the brand new Madring circuit in, you guessed it, Madrid. So, who's going to win it!?Come and see our live tour 'Super Podding' this November! It's a brand new show and there are a few tickets left: http:/tix.to/p1liveFancy even more P1? Well, join our Patreon for just $5 a month! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTokP1 with Matt and Tommy is the world's biggest F1 podcast. Subscribe for new podcasts around every single race throughout the 2026 Formula 1 season! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. New Circuit Edition. Predictions. If you thought my predictions were bad before, how on earth am I going to predict? When we've never been to Madrid before. A brand new circuit, the dog has just walked in. Bruno wants to say hello. Bruno, what do you think?

What do you think to Madrid, my guy? Come on, quick, quick. This is, no, you've got to stick. You've got to come up. Bruno, if you're going to walk in, You've got to say hello to everybody. Quick. Here we go.

What do you think of Madrid, Bruno? Tell everybody. Let's get you properly in front of the mic. There we go. What do we think? Do you like Madrid? Yorn. If you like Madrid.

Oh, he did. You did actually yawn. It's just breathing. Just breathing. Tommy, how are you feeling? I'm feeling good. The good news about your predictions is you only have to score non, and you do better than last week. I'm disappointed the graph.

He didn't say minus one, by the way, that we put on Instagram. That would have been. That would a chef. So Tommy, usually we have news, or I say usually, we've brought this in. But we are back-to-back race weekends, not a lot of news to talk about. Although one thing we didn't actually mention last time that I think definitely deserves its spotlight is Lando having his own racing team and announcing that. The LN4 Fusion, isn't it called? And yeah, the livery is cooking.

His helmet, as we've said many times, his just general brand is the strongest, I would say, of especially the newer drivers. You have your Hamilton's and stuff. I think Lando is really cementing himself with his branding and things like that. And to kind of be entering the scene with a racing team is awesome. Like I cannot wait to see, maybe you'll go and have a little race. I'm like, I'm going to pop to Formula 4 and have a little go. But it's brilliant to see this kind of thing. Because we don't really see it that much with drivers.

No, you don't. It is so cool to see the fact that I love Lando's whole look and the whole. kind of thing that he's gone through his whole career where he's gone for this electric yellow, which of course was inspired by Valentina Rossi, but he's made it his own now. I think he's got the best helmet design on the grid in terms of just like using it all the time now. It's just so distinctive, so different to anyone else on the grid. And then for him to do that pattern into the car as well, it's very impressive that you can just look at that without even saying LN or Landau even standing there and you go, that's the Landon Norris race car.

And it's awesome. It looks so, so cool. So it's going to be racing an Italian F4 through to Formula 3 for 2027 and I believe they're also trying to get into Formula 2. So I need to be watching that too when we do our predictions for 2049 and I look at who's on the grid. Scouting. Yeah, scouting some up and coming talent.

Other things that obviously talk about, not really news, but it's just generally Madrid, brand new circuit, and I think before we get into predictions, let's dive into our thoughts about what this circuit is going to offer this weekend. I think first and foremost from my side is unpredictability. We're going to see that

I quite enjoy when we have a new circuit or a circle we've not been to in a while where the track evolution is crazy. So that free practice one at the start is going to be markedly different to what we end up seeing in qualifying. handfuls of seconds. You know for a fact

Max Verstappen will be three seconds clear of everybody else because you'll send it the second. Get your bets in now that Max Verstappen will be four seconds clear after the first lap

and then everyone catches up. Exactly. They all have their own ways of going about it and matches that full send. But yeah, Madrid, aside from that and just generally

the circuit itself, I am not sold. I'm not sold that this is going to be an excellent circuit. From what I can see, it is, it gives me some kind of Valencia vibes in certain areas, especially the kind of last sector, it kind of reminds me of Sochi a little bit in some ways. So, yeah, let's see. It's got a bit of banking, isn't it? It's bringing some banking to the

table, which is going to be cool to see. I don't, this is my main concerns. I don't see many places to actually overtake. That's my one main concern. It doesn't matter now because you just need to deploy. Yep, that's true. And I love every time you put the voice on. I know exactly it's going to be a deploy. A bit of chat.

The main thing that obviously I look for in circuits is big long straights, heavy braking zone. I don't see one real heavy braking zone. I mean, turn one is kind of into a left right that may, I don't know how much you would consider that heavy braking zone. It's the heaviest point of braking on the circuit, I would say. Apart from that, it's kind of short burst. and then another 90 degree, maybe even Azerbaijan-esque a little bit as well in the last sector.

So, yeah, I don't know. I think I have reasonably low expectations when I look at the circuit map, but the fact it's new, the fact that teams have no data, means that we could see an interesting and chaotic race, which I'm all here for. Yeah, I remember how much everyone roasted Jeddah when we first saw that circuit. I didn't roast it.

I saw long straits and went banger. Yeah, and obviously Vegas, very different circuits this one, of course, but everyone again also got roasted. We saw that coming. It was a great, great track. We saw that. We saw that coming. We were like, Vegas is going to be a banger. This one I don't know.

Yeah, this one I'm less confident about, but you just never know with these things. I think the weirdest thing for me is how, and probably again, a reminder of Valencia is how clumsy some of the corners are. And I feel like that's the way, like turn 20, not actually being a, you know, 90 degree turn. It's almost more than 90 degrees. And the one that I keep seeing online in the Formula One game is Turn 5, where they go really quick into it. And I think you're meant to actually slow down and navigate those corners. But on the Formula 1 game, people have basically been flying into that corner and seeing if they can almost cut it and go as fast as possible through there. Isn't that turn 1? And it looks quite sketchy. Turn 5 is the one that people fly over

before that bridge. I mean, to be fair, I've seen people cutting term one as well. Okay, yeah. Yeah, no, I think I'm talking more about how you, it's meant to like be a breaking zone where you slow down, navigate the chican, but it almost looks like, if you've ever seen when they do non-F Formula One series and they put in a chican and a lot of touring cars

and they just bounce over the curbs and they just basically straight line it, it looks that kind of thing that I've seen of people are like flying over that part of the track. I would be amazed if that's how the actual Formula One cars go around it. Because, yeah, I doubt we see that happen in the Formula One game. But the unknown is always a very intriguing one. I like seeing new circuits on the calendar. It adds a new element of intrigue,

particularly in like a practice session where you're desperate to sort of like watch every session and kind of learn the track. Like we have to learn it as fans and know what's coming next. You're right actually about the turn five thing. I'm just watching the Madrid hot lap now. The turn five one was where I'd been seeing it as well. They fly into the corner and hope that they just get it right. They're not going to do that this weekend because track minutes of course exists.

But yeah, let's see. I like the unknown and I think that will hopefully carry us through this, even if we have a very processional race. There's always negativity about new things in Formula One. I think there should be excitement. but just temper your expectations, I would say, with what I can see from the track layout. Right, let's get into predictions, shall we, if we have to.

I really hate this series. I can't wait for it to be over. It's 4532 to Tommy. I am 13 points behind. Don't say it. I know you want to say it. MTG. I'm not going to say it.

MTG. Yeah. Tommy Gallagher. Oh, wait. Are we getting married? Are we? No. Right.

So, Tommy, it's your turn to go first. I'm disappointed to see that Grace is not sat in your chair about to do your full set. I know. She's at school now. How is that going? Is Grace going well at school? She is. She absolutely loves it.

Yeah, she's super, not like me. She's the most extroverted, super confident, walk straight in on the first day, chatting to everyone gets home. It's made 100 friends. Knows everyone's name, knows all the teachers. Yeah, I don't know where she gets that from. No, I don't either. Right, Tommy, let's get it to your good surprise, please.

Good surprise. I'm going for Carlos Sites. A home driver, someone that's been obviously very sort of involved in this circuit, wanting to see it happen, being involved, driving it before. Maybe his one lap in a road car helps him this weekend, going into the weekend. I think Carlos, obviously the bar is very low for Williams this weekend and just generally this season. Carlos has been very underrated, I think, with the drives. The only headlines he's been making is unfortunately bad ones where he's like blocked Oscar Piastri,

but he's quietly in the races where he's actually like a normal and he's gone about his business. I think he feels like he gets the best out of that, Williams almost every time. And yeah, we'll see if the, now the home race curse has been broken by Antonelli, maybe opens the floodgates now. I do love this home race curse thing when there was three British drivers on the podium at Silverstone, wasn't there. Three in the top four. The three in the top four. It's easy to forget. It finishes in the wall these days a lot, doesn't it?

Wait, there were three British drivers somewhere. It wasn't Silverstone. Where was it? No. No, you are thinking of Silverstone. You're thinking of Silverstone. You are thinking of Silverstone. Silverstone where F1 did a graphie.

It's like everyone's D&F in their home race. And then they're like Silverstone. It's like second, third, fifth, ninth. And there are loads of them. They actually all did quite well. I can't believe I've already forgotten that Charlotte Clare. One Silverstone. That's how I'm so depressed right now.

It's ridiculous. My good surprise, Charlotte Clare. I've gone away from the teams. And if he completes two laps, we are cooking. No, I am going for a good surprise. Clair because the bar is quite low and

are a lot of walls, they? We are away we are away from a power sensitive track where Ferrari aren't particularly good and lots of wiggles. We could well see yes, we could well see the Ferrari be back to reasonable form

and I... Sorry, you're just saying that is proper that Ferrari graphic of we're so back. You are here. Circle. Circle. I'm not back yet Tommy, I'll be so honest with you. I'm not back. but I will be if I can get a point for this I've gone away from teams I'm not touching a team for now because I feel like that is

that's costing me I just need to score points because last week I scored minus one so some consistency if I just get everything wrong without any appeals in the court then we've done better than last week so I've gone for good surprise Charleclair

because I need it more than he needs it so there you go okay big flop gone back to a team V-cab I'm flopping V-cab. They've been consistently scoring points, consistently in Q3, and I think if there's ever a point where maybe they could not perform as well,

it would be a new track where the data is just non-existent. Of course, you've got Yuki Sonoda there as well, driving around a track that he's never done in a car that he's still very much learning. I think he said himself that he feels like a rookie in this car. So there you go. I flopped them. Only two races this season. They've not scored points in, actually.

I'm not hoping, you know, aside from the predictions, I'm not hoping for ill will, but with predictions. But give me them points because I need them. But please finish 11th and 12th. Thank you. Big flop. I have gone for Nico Holcombberg. Again, just throwing darts their dartboard,

vibes, looked up and down the order, see who just stood out to me and yeah no ill will on them but went for Holkenberg obviously Audi their reliability has been better recently they've not retired since Silverstone and so they're doing actually quite well and I did I was like they're too good of a run of yeah yeah they're actually finishing races and so yeah I've gone gone for Holcombberg okay interesting good old Hulk and fair. As I said, I thought maybe Alvey could have a stinker here.

Literally, as you say, darts, dartboard, random, because who knows who's going to be the red. Exactly. Let's go to Pole position. Pole position, I'm going to go for George Russell.

Ooh. I was thinking about, I mean, always got to think about Antonelli, of course, the way his season's going, but was also thinking maybe outside Mercedes. I don't think Mercedes are going to be, you know, unbelievable here like they were at, at Monza, of course. There's still be strong because it's Mercedes.

And George Russell, yeah, seems to have turned his form around and looking more competitive each weekend. Of course, got pole position for the sprint in Ian Zandvo, and yeah, I think he's turned his form around a bit. So I'm going to go for George. Okay, interesting. Tommy's opened the door. He's arm 13 points ahead.

come and take a Kimmy Antonelli if you want. My pole position, hear me out. Landon Norris. I'm not putting Charlott on poll and watch him get poll. I've gone for Landon Norris because I think Monza was a blip in what has been a great run of form for McLaren. This track is not like Monza. It's a lot more fiddly and a lot more, I think, will sort of lean more into the McLaren strengths again. So that's why I think that Lando will continue being really strong at places where the car is somewhere near the front.

And let's not forget those two wins that he had. They were phenomenal. So I think he could well continue back on that horse. And then we go, is Lando back in the World Championship again? And then we go, no, probably not, but it would be good to see. So I've gone for pole position, Lando Norris. Third place in the race. am I going to regret this?

Charlecler. Back on the podium. I'm never predicting Charlotte Claire again. I'm too far behind. Charlotte Claire. Yeah, I know. I haven't said for him to win. Just a cheeky podium.

He's not entirely washed. And I think that Ferrari will be good. Even his Monza Qualilap was good. You know, up in P3. P4 actually got promoted to P3. Should see them. like Stamford and

hungry. Exactly. But we've got an upgraded power unit that worked really well at Monza. So yeah, P3, Charlotte Clare, before I change my mind. P3, I've gone for George Russell. Wow, pole to P3. Pole to P3. Jeez. Yeah, which maybe sounds quite savage,

but no, I've gone for George. I think he'll be on the podium again. and yeah I mean it's can't really bet against Mercedes grabbing a podium with their form at the moment so yet gone for George Russell and as I said with with pole position you know that horrible run they had a couple of podiums in the in the last two races as well so back on form I think needs a bit more than that it does need more than a third it's like P3 3 needs to win the world championship here P2 Tommy P2 I've gone for Kimmy Antonelli

Kimi Antonelli P2 maybe opening the door who's we'll see whether you go for it or not

Kimi Ansenelli what is there more to say he won from 19th last week even at Zanvort which I don't think was maybe his strongest P2 he won from 19th last week

but he will finish second he will finish second this week from probably normal qualifying And yeah, finish second at Zamvort, of course. Yeah, he's still one of those people that you just would bet to be on the podium every single race in a normal race. Whether this is a normal race, I have a new circuit that looks a bit crazy. We'll find out.

But I've gone for Kimmy P2. Okay, second place for me, Lando Norris, because another guy won from 19th, and I'm considering him. Landon Norris P2. I'm not going to play any games. If I put it in here, then maybe I can block Tommy off to say that. But then you'll just put Lando P1 or something. And then to be fair, you're going to do Lando P1 anyway, probably.

That's what I'm thinking. And then I'm like, well, if I go for someone else, say, hey, stop it, Matt. Stop doing it because you did that thing before. And then you cost yourself points. Second place, Lando Norris. Yeah, as I said, I think that he'll be back to form. I think that McLaren will be back to being closer to the front, if not the fastest. So he'll have a chance of winning.

but I've gone for second place. In first position. Because Tommy has opened the door. I have to, being 13 points behind, take the championship leader Kimmy Antonelli to win around Madrid. Need I say more, as Tommy said.

19th to first, but I've actually gone for first position because it makes the most sense. I haven't put George on the podium, but then we've not seen many one-toes this year and the fact that I've put three different teams in the top three suggests I don't know who's going to be fastest around here and that's why I've been hedging my bets slightly.

So there you go, Antonelli P1. So P1, I've gone for Lando Norris, as you kind of thought might happen. I do think Lando is going to be exceptionally good around here. One Hungary, one, Zandvort. We didn't see the best of him in Monza, but I think there's a lot of circumstance there. I don't think McLaren were ever going to be able to beat Mercedes anyway.

Obviously he started down the order because of the fact that he didn't get that final run in, didn't get the toe. And then we kind of the race was very much like it's on the back foot for the whole race. Still managed an excellent P4. I think, yeah, this we're going to go back, I think, to a circuit that's more suited, like the kind of Zanvorts. And obviously Lando was so, so good around there. So I'm going to go for Lando P-1.

Okay, dokey. It's now time. P-WAT! What? The random number generator. And Tommy has to roll it between 4 and 22, and hope we don't get 17th. 60.

Every single week at 16. Every single week it is a lowly number. So let's see what the number. You are. Me. You are going first. So, the number is Fourth.

Oh, wow. I will go for Max Verstappen. I will go for, I was about to say a driver. I've already picked. I mean, you could technically do it. I could do that, but that is wrong, and I need to score as many points as possible. I'm going to go for Lewis Hamilton, P4.

Thank you. Okay, nice. All right. Wow, that one. We should probably say that. I assume there are no laws in going for it, Because I don't think in the top three you'd be allowed to go. Antonelly, Antone, Antonelly, and hope you get a point.

That would be a serious fall from grace. That's like saying, I'm not going to score two points, so I'm going to try and score one, and that's not going to help me 13 points behind. But no, yeah, that's definitely against the gentleman's agreement. The spirit of the rules of predictions championship, I'd say. That's like overtaking the last corner before we're about to set a quality lap. Let's not do that, even though it wouldn't be very beneficial to me.

I need to have like a 10 point week. I really do. Let's go to one crazy prediction. And I'm doubling down on the V carb flop. I'm going to say no V carbs in the top 10 in Quali or race. Okay. There you go. Wow.

That's it. Nice. Can't wait for a Limblab P8. Thanks so much. Cheers. P10 in Quali double DnF. Immediately ruined on Saturday. Please, Arvid.

Just have a P11. Come on. Yuki poll it is. My one. crazy prediction. I'm going really crazy because I can and I'm going to go. Fernando Alonso went. No. No. I'm going to go for no virtual safety car or safety car during the race. Okay. Which I think a lot of people think it's going to be like a Baku and lots of carnage and stuff. Can't wait for the most boring processional race. Yeah, yeah. 20 points clear come the end of this weekend.

That's my thinking is like, you know, we'll get on. to the patrons predictions, but I know like when we post the graphic, everyone's like, Red flags, oh my God, craziness thinking, because New Track, like if we say like dusty, walls. Yeah, there should be mistakes. Carnage. Or even just like Alance Stroll, just breaking down. It doesn't seem like there's many places to just get rid of a car without throwing at least a VSC. So fair enough.

I accept that as crazy. Patreon prediction. So if you're part of the P1 Patreon, you can add free listening. which is gorgeous as well as access to our Discord where you can submit your Patreon prediction also be part of a lovely P1 patron community you can also get early access to live show tickets and lots more so it's over to you Tommy

for your P1 Patreon prediction My patron prediction is from R&B Sheep and it's Perez jumps Bottas in the standing so I've gone it's going to be a really boring race but a Cadillac is going to finish 13th or higher Is it 13th or higher is it 12th? Where did Bottas finish 13th? You finished 13th?

but has Perez already had a third? Perez has had a 14th and Bottas hasn't so he would go ahead of them with a 30th because it's the second best result. Is it countback? Is it count back? Yeah, that's how it works. Not how you achieve a P13 first. I know that it would be count back for further ahead but all right.

Well, I'm pretty sure. Let's see how the standings change. In fact, I can work it out because Lance Stroll is ahead of Perez, is ahead of Botas and has a 15th to Bottas's second best result, which is 16th. So it is on. There you go. All right. Imagine your championship result being that you've got.

More 15th place. A 15th over a Cadillac. I'm sure they really thought Aston Martin might win a race this season. Still could happen. Alon's on the podium. Watch this. Okay, so my Patreon prediction is from Jennifer English. Two of the top five in the championship have some kind of incident together on track.

Charlene Lewis in the top five? Yep, I don't mind. As long as it's a little will-bang. I'll take the point. I'll take the point. Just a wheel-bang. No, I don't think there's any gravel around here, but just a little wheelbang. I'll be amazing if they do.

Finish third and fourth, please. Thank you so much. That would be an amazing ending for my predictions. Okay, we now go to the championship everyone cares about, which is the family predictions. Currently, 9-5 to the Gallagher's. I have not briefed a single family member that I'm going to be calling. them. Surely your sister has to be

called. My sister's at work. We need to get your sister involved. I can try. The four point deficit. I'm always bringing grace on board when I'm ahead. Let's see.

I have not told her. But it's around lunchtime. So let's see. I might well do. I'm like, oi, or something like Yeah, yeah. She's probably working.

And she's not going to pick up. So we'll give it one more ring. It's been forwarded to voicemail. Nope, so that's not happening. So I fielded my dad last time. So Ellie's at work as well. She's not at home. So it's going to have to be my mum.

Okay. All right. It's going to have to be an Antonelli win. Don't let me down, mum. Please don't be doing bowls. Or I love how some people are like, what are they saying? Is that bowls? B-O-W-L-S.

It's where you roll balls. Hello? Wait, are you on the phone? Are you talking to me on your watch or something? Perfect. No rush. We're not in any rush whatsoever. Maybe by FP1 would be handy, though.

Yes, perfect. Hello? Hello? Hi, Mum. So, I didn't brief you, but you're live on the P1 podcast, ready to do some predictions. Oh, great. Yeah, really sorry.

But as long as you know three driver's names, that's all that matters. You know many. You're a big fan these days. And I know who I think. Oh, do you? Okay. Don't go into it just yet.

We need to do the thing. So it's Madrid. It's a brand new circuit and nobody knows what's going to happen. So. I hope she studied the F3 race. P3. What are you going to go for? Vastappen.

Okay. Max Fesstappen P3. That's fair enough. He would have had like many podiums in a row apart from Zambort. So that's a fair shout. We don't even mention him really. P2, please. P2, I would say George Russell.

Strong. And in P1? I know this. Okay. Okay. You've gone for a Mercedes 1-2 with Vastap and third. Okay, fair enough, Mum. I appreciate it. We're 9-5 ahead. And that's a strong set of predictions considering I did not give you any heads up. Yep. Okay. All right. Thanks, Mom. Love you. Bye. Yes, she said love you. Finally. Hooray. That was three times. And I even told her on the phone like a week.

I was like, Mom, I've said love you three, like twice on the podcast. You've not said love you back. She's like, I'll make sure I say it next time. She did it. Forced love. We love to see it. I'm going to call the only person that will want to be on this less than your mum right then, which is my wife. Ah, yes. Always, always loves doing this.

She's like, hello. Oh, no. Not again. Is she in the house? She is, yeah. Yeah, I love that. Hello? Hello?

Oh, my weird. Neither of us said hello. Neither of us said hello. It just didn't. It didn't answer. it glitched as you said maybe said hello yeah i did say hello okay just did not come through i didn't just answer the phone not saying yeah i was like wow i already made the joke that you really don't want to be here and that just really like fit the narrative there lovely stuff uh right

can we get p3 for madrid i hope you've studied uh yeah course always um max oh no okay yeah no no I'm doing the same with someone else? So far it's the same as Matt's Mum, but that's fine. Go on then, P2. Oh, it's going to be the same. Kimmy. Oh, okay. Different. Okay.

It's different, thankfully, because we need to get points. And P1. Lando. Oh, I've gone for Lando as well. Actually, I've gone for exactly the same top three apart from Russell in P3 and Mastappen. So thank you. okay thank you let me let me let's bye

there we go okay well there you go that is that's a strong I think if I had to choose I'll go for your for Katie's the Norris Antonelli Vastappen no Russell though but like no Russell I nearly went for Max P3

as well but I was like Russell has been on good run so yeah there you go well that is we need a three point very badly although we can't can't get three points on, well, no, we can't because obviously you would get one. Because as well, you know, it's probably worth mentioning that obviously the family top three being considered the most important championship. The prestige won.

It's where the money, yeah, as the with the constructors is where the money is handed out. I told you, driver's nothing. There's absolutely nothing for the drivers, all the constructors. Right, that is it. Thank you, everybody, for tuning in to the predictions for Madrid, Medring. It's going to be an exciting one, an unknown one, a leap into the darkness of the unpredictability of a new track. I'm excited for it. Tommy, final thoughts? Me too. Bring on practice. You know, you know it's intriguing and different when I'm buzzing for a practice session. I know, that is very rare. So, I can't wait for that. And we will see you very soon. Lots of love. Bye. Goodbye.

You know,