P1 with Matt and Tommy - Our bold predictions for the rest of the 2024 season

Episode Date: August 19, 2024

The summer break is almost over, so let's turn our attention to the rest of what's been a surprisingly great season. Let's look into our crystal balls and pull out some predictions - some more crazy than others...P1 Live is heading to North America this Fall and tickets are now on sale! Click here to get your tickets, which are already close to selling out!Sign up to our Patreon here! You'll get access to bonus episodes, our classic race series, every P1 episode ad-free and access to our Discord server where you can chat with other F1 fans!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the B1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Wow, it feels like Formula One has ceased to exist. Not purely because we've not had any racing, Thomas James Bellingham, but also there's not been any news. It's been nothing. It's been dead. It's been absolutely nudder, hasn't it? Nothing to sort of satiate the appetite at all.

No, it was very much you could tell Formula One, teams wanted to get all their announcements ASAP before they went on holiday. So they, as soon as the Belgian GP finished, they're like, right, everything now. And then let's have a nice rest. Indeed. And we have also had a nice rest. Tommy, you've been away. You've been having a great time. But today, we are going to be going through some bold predictions from you, wonderful lot, as well as our bold predictions for the rest of the season. We've got one each, haven't we, Tommy? But before we do that, we have a shout out for our. US tour. Tickets are still available. Check the link in our social media. If you want to find out more,

link in the description of this podcast, in the YouTube channel, everywhere. There are links everywhere. We'd love to have you at one of our US shows in October, which is not far away, is it, Tommy? I'm quite excited to go to another country and do our show. Yeah, it feels like very, very close now. And it's like, oh, it's happening. It's going to fly by as soon as the season starts back up again, isn't it? But exciting times. Exactly. And what is also exciting is the fact that we're going to get into our bold predictions. And start with P1 Patreon member Savage Monkey 3.0. Oscar Pastery will win more races than Lando and pass him for P2 in the championship.

Oof. Lando fans, we've started off with a pure savagery from Savage Monkey. A lot of people, I don't think this is the only prediction. I've seen about Oscar Piastri doing better than Lando Norris in the second half of the season. And look, it's a fair assessment to make. Oscar Piastri is definitely on the up. He's been improving. He's been getting his act together in the races. And he is a force to be reckoned with in, I don't know when, whether it'll be this half of the season,

whether it will be going into the next season, perhaps a clean slate into the 26th regulations. I'm not sure. But he is improving a lot. I will say I don't agree with that. I think that Lando will still have the edge. Yes, he hasn't been perfect. Don't get me wrong. Lando is his biggest own self-critic,

and he's aware of the fact he needs to improve. But I still think Lando will have the edge in this second half of the season. And if he irons out the mistakes, then Lando should, in theory, be P2 in the championship. And that's where I sit for now. It's going to be very close, isn't it? I mean, what are they separated by to 20, oh no, sorry, 32 points. So it is a fairly big gap.

I actually think this is, yeah, going to be probably the most interesting teammate battle of the whole second half of the season. I think we will very quickly kind of see from the Dutch Grand Prix whether Lando has kind of picked himself up from the difficult break that he's had, of course. you know it was it did look like it in spa he was very much desperate for that break and to get kind of a bit of a reset

I personally think maybe Landau's form has kind of been unfairly sort of criticised I know you can look at Oscars outscored him and he has an Oscar deserves a huge amount of credit but of course Austria was a big

moment where he scored nothing essentially Lando when he was very close to winning the race or at least coming second. So I think it's going to be incredible close between them. I think it is going to be extremely close, too close to call. I wouldn't want to... Tommy, get off the fence. Is it happening or not? I don't want any of this...

You're not going to come back from the summer break and give me some of this fence sitting. Okay. Oscar does it just. Oh! So you reckon Oscar finishes P2 in the championship? No. what? What do you mean? I don't know. That's not even your bold prediction. No, no. The next question is who does get Peter in the championship? Who do you think?

Yeah, that's what I was subtly sort of throwing in there because it's not actually from a person. So I thought I'd just roll that one in there and you've gone no. So what do you think, Lewis Hamilton or something? What are you saying? I was, that was going to be my bold prediction was that Lewis Hamilton finished the second in the championship. That would be wild. That would be why, because I thought, yeah, that's my bold prediction. Then I looked at the gap between him and Lando and it is 49 points, which is a lot. And there are any, it's not, it's not impossible.

But I think he could do it. It's actually smaller than I thought it would be. Yeah, because I could remember. Based on Hamilton season, how he had like the season at the start. He's closed up obviously a huge amount. But I think if I was, if, yeah, oh, it's so close to. But I'm going to say Hamilton just for vibes. For vibes.

Okay, fair enough. Because it's not my bowl prediction. I'm going Landon Norris because I think that he will finish second in the championship. And he's been unfairly slandered. He has been rightly criticized, but unfairly slanded for sure. Okay, let's get into the juicy ones then and start with my bowl prediction. And it is. With 10 races to go, Max will win no more than three races.

Yep, it's happening. Red Bull are getting caught even more so. into the second half of the season. I just see it in my mind's eye, Tommy. They've been caught. I don't think they have any interest really in much focus in this year or next year's car, probably for that matter, because they're probably quite concerned with 2026 now, with the fact that the whole structure seems to be coming apart piece by piece,

Jonathan Wheatley leaving going to Audi. And it just feels as though a lot's going on there. And I think it would be silly for Red Bull to really focus much on these next couple of seasons. when you've got a massive rule change coming up in 26. So I just feel as though Red Bull will still be quick, don't get me wrong. And Max will still produce some unbelievable drives, but it will win no more than three races. Thoughts?

Ooh. Shall I counter my thoughts with my bold preaching because it's also about Max? Of shock, of course it's about Max. Go on him. Well, it wasn't going to be, and then I saw yours and I thought, for the sake of, because we rarely disagree.

So this is one we will disagree on. Let's have it out. Let's have it out. the Stappan extends his lead by the end of the season I would actually argue that both of those things could be true yeah yeah okay everybody could take points of each other exactly but yeah looking into this

I don't think Max is going to have I mean it wouldn't be a bad end of the season let's not say the word bad because even if he won three races that's not it's bad compared to Max Verstappen if you'd said three Max winning three races in 10 at the start of the season you've gone well what on earth is happening in F1 is he playing eye racing at home for seven races

but looking at the form actually and this is even as someone that's quite a pessimistic person I think that he's not one since Spain I do think he's carrying a lot of well he is carrying Red Bull on this and his back with his performance, but I don't think his form is as bad when you actually look into

dissect the races. Yeah, deep dive into the race because Austria, he was going to win, if not second, if he hadn't have collided with Landon Norris. Silverstone second, God, what a wash driver finishing second. When he looked like he was going to finish fifth. Hungary should have gone to bed earlier,

which of course we all know. And Belgium, and Belgium, he absolutely walked qualifying and it was really hard to overtake. And I think if he'd have started from pole, could he have won it? I think that it's a very good chance he would have won that race. So his form isn't anywhere near as bad as we think.

So a lot of people think that it's going to be, and it has been very close and that has been brilliant. I don't think he'll be completely dominant, but I don't think his form is as bad, that he's going to, you know, people are going to start eating into his lead and he's only going to win by 10, 20 points in the end because the Red Bull, Red Bull are finished.

I don't think that's the case. Well, he better not win the championship by seven or less. Well, is that all that? Well, depending if Landon or S's P2, but we'll see. Oh, speaking of, actually, that's the next, someone's next bowl prediction. Oh, what a segue. I hadn't even read it.

Next one is from Jay Luke John, letting Piastri win in Hungary will be why Vastappan wins the championship instead of Norris. Wow, that is quite the statement. Now, I said that in jest. I don't actually think that Lando will finish less than seven points behind Max,

but I think that also, you look back to when we were talking about that, it is a true statement, right? It is something to talk about because you have, well, now we have, 10 races left, a maximum of over 250 points available, if you think of how many sprints have we got left? I can't even remember now, but we've got a few, a couple or three, I don't know. How many we had? There's a lot of points on the table. So there's three more. Three left, yes.

There's a lot of points on the table. So let's see, but I don't think in a, if we're going to be sensible about this, that's not going to happen. A maximum staff is going to win the championship comfortably. That's not to say that we're not going to get exciting races every single Grand Prix, because I do think that that will be also the case. Exactly. It is the gap is currently 78 points, which is a huge margin. No one's ever turned around that margin before. I think the biggest was Maxis Tappen on Charler-le-le-clair.

I thought I'd mention that. Great. Fantastic. And then, yeah. That's actually, yeah, that's horrific. Welcome back from one. Wow. You didn't even let me get to the next, like, to Zand for. 11 minutes.

Geez. Eleven minutes soon. I was so, I was so innocently just listening to you then. And then you just threw that one in there, straight dagger to the heart. Thank you, mate. But that would be insane for Lando. Even if they live to regret it, you know, you said it, but that was before, you know, we'd had an extra couple of, like, three races or whatever.

but it's kind of the gap is enormous. It's not impossible. It would be a case of Red Bull falling off a cliff, which I don't think they'll do. But I do think Lando will bag a lot of points come the end of the season. So yeah, this would be insane for it to even happen. McClara Black, we're so happy to get second

in the driver's championship and secure second in the constructors. But like, say that's not that's not you know my prediction of Vestappen extending his lead isn't like a oh we're having a 2023 I still think it's going to be absolutely epic because my god the season has been awesome walks on water so okay let's let's actually predict the gap then that we think is going to happen between first and second I am going to lock in and I think this is going to come true 58 points Max Wastappen wins the the world championship by don't know why it's just it's in

my brain. The numbers in your brain. Yeah. I am going to go four. No, that's not more than 70. Four. What did I say it was? 78 points ahead.

He's going to extend his damage of lead. No, again. I'm going to go with 92. To be fair, I would have put it past you, knowing the prediction series we have, where you just spread your ranks and you're like, he will win by four points. When he wins by four points, I'm going to cut that clip and look like a genius. Tommy said it all along. Okay, let's go to the next bold prediction.

It comes in from Rijorgasel. What's a great name? There'll be eight different race winners, but the eighth isn't going to be Perez. Okay, okay, okay, so who's going to win the race in Alonzo? a little Holcomberg first podium for a P1 First podium is a win, imagine. That would be unbelievable. So we are literally relying on Fernando Alonzo

to do an absolute masterclass, aren't we really here? There's no one even close. There is not. Not to be a party pooper from this one, and this, again, isn't a slander thing because actually the fact is kind of, for me this one is a I would

I mean nothing's ever a zero percent chance but I will I will I will grade at a 0.01% chance that this will happen I think it's absolutely almost impossible yeah I mean if this happens I will

go on wear windmill the merchandise I will wear the merchandise of that person and do an apology video on on our channel or P1X or something.

It's never going to happen. I'm that confident it's not going to happen. And the reason for that is because the kind of clues in the question, we have had seven different winners this year. And because it's so close at the front, it makes it incredibly difficult for a random winner. You look at 2021 and 2022, you know, you had that rogue Ocon win,

you had the rogue Paris win, you had whatever, but that was in a season where only a Merck or the Stappan was winning a race. Whereas now, if the Stappan doesn't win, you've got Norris, if Stapin does win Leclair, Piastri, Science, Hamilton, Russell. Even if all them seven fall off the road, well, depending on Peres's form, maybe not. But you'd think, basically there's seven, if not eight drivers that can win a race. You actually look at Fernando Alonzo, we know we were saying, like, he's the best chance.

The highest anyone has finished outside those top eight drivers is fifth. And that was Fernando Alonso once. It's not, I think it's so rare that they're even getting a podium, never mind a win. Yeah. Yeah, it would take some crazy circumstances for all seven slash eight drivers to have something going on. Bottas bowling in the steak, but rather than him being, like taking out the first three, takes up the first ten. Yeah, yeah.

And then we'll see. I mean, even with Vestapp and having a hole in his car, he probably still would win. if we go back to Hungary. Anyway, let's go to the next one. And it comes in from P1, Patreon member. Lumixion. Perez wins the Mexican Grand Prix. Now, I would love this.

It would be such an emotional moment. Now, there's been a lot of rumours, hasn't there, about things that have caused Perez to stay in his seat. Surrounding the Mexican Grand Prix and surrounding money and all this sort of stuff. Now we're not going to go into that, because there's no verified sources. It's just lots of...

PSA and that sort of stuff. But if we're looking at that as an isolated moment, I would love it. I think it would be such an emotional moment. I think Perez would be incredibly overwhelmed if he was able to do something like that. He will need to do another win or bin and actually make it happen this time because, of course, he did win or bin last year. And it was a bin because he crashed with Charlotte Cloor, I believe it was, fun. But yeah, he's going to have to do it from eighth and a dive bomb into first by term one. yes very very difficult I think this is about the same likelihood as someone else winning and having eight different winners but I'd love to see it I'd love to see it as well it'd be an incredible story like you say

it's so unlikely because of the fact that Red Bull are nowhere near as strong as they used to be and Perez's form shows that had Mexico been the first race of the season when Perez turns up and is seemingly much more on it then maybe there's an opportunity because of course Perez picked up three P2s in the first four races but then you know even if Red Bull returned to form you're kind of relying on something to go wrong with Max because he is unbelievable around Mexico even when Red Bull weren't the dominant car he seemed to always be the favorite going into that race even when the Mercedes were miles clear of the field so it would take a lot for for Sergio Perez tree, but like you say, we'd love to see it. I mean, I think the form he's in, he would absolutely just take a podium now, there and anywhere. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Okay, there's a question

that we put out on our socials, and it was who out of Hamilton, Russell, Piastri, Norris, Lecler, and Sines ends up with the most wins during the season? Now, right now, Hamilton has the most wins out of those, correct, with two? Indeed, yeah. And then everybody else has one, it's an interesting question because it's a really difficult question. Apart from Ferrari. You look at that right and you go, good, so you look at that right and you go

surely McLaren, but after looking at them in the first half of the season, you go, how have you come away with two wins? How have you come away with less wins than Mercedes considering the form that you've had for most of the year? and then you look at just at the well-oiled machine that is Mercedes and Hamilton and Russell and you go, Lewis could probably snatch one or two more. If everything falls his way or he qualifies really well, Hamilton's in with a shot.

You know that. And we've seen that this season already. So, ah, I am going to say. No, I'm back in Lewis Hamilton. I genuinely think, I know he has got a win ahead of the rest of them, but I could see him getting one or two more, and I don't think Norris or Piastri, in what could probably be the fastest car,

will pick up three, four, five wins. I just don't see it. Yeah, this is a really difficult one. I think another kind of bold shout is actually George Russell. Again, like, you know, without, what is it, 1.5 kilograms on his car, he'd have been the one going in. lot actually. I'll have you know that 1.5 kilograms made him go to warp speed. Walk speed. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He actually gained five seconds a lap. Yeah, I did see where before he had that 1.5,

he was actually doing 400 kilometers narrow on the camel straight. So, um, absolute cheetah. Exactly. He warped into another dimension. Um, but no, Russell's a good chat actually because he does qualify very well. And if that Mercedes is as good, as it is. It is an insane thing. I completely agree with you on this that you're on form and car,

if you just looked at the car, you'd say, well, McLaren, one of the McLaren drivers should be doing it. But the fact that, yeah, Mercedes have come out of this little break with more wins. And arguably,

well, not even arguably, definitely they've got more wins. Statistically. they've got more wins in such a short time that their car's been good. So you think if they're carrying that momentum and their car's getting better, they're just going to pick up more wins that has to be said. So I think it will be one of the Mercedes drives over the McLaren because you look at when McLaren run that amazing run of form,

albeit a lot of people said, you know, they should be winning races and Lando and Oscar, I think between them finished second in, apart from the win for Lando in Miami. They were like second in Lolares in a row. It's only now, during that time, Mercedes were finishing like 9th and 6th and 8th, whereas now the Mercedes have got a good car. It's just instantly like, right, we're winning. Race win, race win, race win, race win. So yeah, I think it will be...

Pick a driver, Tommy. It's boring to get the same one, but I do think it'd be Hamilton. It's fine. We are allowed to have the same opinion sometimes. I know. I don't just lock it in. You have to go to someone else. Say Bottas.

I dare you. Go on, back him. I'm actually disappointed. You didn't put Bottas. Yonoda, yeah. Let's go. Yeah, yeah, why not? Okay, the final ball prediction from you wonderful lot is from Philip Slayton.

Red Bull loses the Constructors' Championship. Yes, yes, Red Bull don't win the constructors. They don't, straight up. Is it bold? This isn't even bold. This is just a prediction. This is actually already happening in my head. I see it.

I think that McLaren, although we've said they may not pick up many wins, if they're finishing second and third, they're probably scoring more points than Red Bull do. So I think that, yeah, it will cost them. I don't think Max is going to, as I've already predicted, I don't think Max is going to win more than three races in the last 10. and there's going to be a lot of points up for grabs. So I think McLaren will win the Constructors' Championship, in my opinion.

It'll be close with Red Bull, don't get me wrong, but they're just losing too many points. And if their car is continuing to get caught up and continuing to be in this pack, which I believe they will be for this second half of the season, it's signed still delivered as long as McLaren don't mess around too much. Yes, I also think McLaren will do it.

Mercedes is a very bold is a bolder prediction that they're 21 it's not a huge amount that they are sorry I'm talking rubbish that's Ferrari yes it is a very bold prediction for them because they're 100 points behind I was pretty close than I remember the summer break has been long

have you just deleted Ferrari from your mind like what's going on here I forgot they existed what if you were to throw Ferrari winning the Constructors Championship mate you know they're still there they are still there Fred's been cooking

right it's funny that I said that because yeah if if that was Mercedes and my my fried brain actually was like yeah that's uh that's the one i'd say Mercedes have a very good shot of taking it uh if they're that close but they are yeah they're a hundred points and yeah 100 points by mcclaren uh i think mcclaren yeah will will do it you look at the the formula you can say all you like about um the fact that mclaren should have won more wins and they should have but what you can't deny is that of won more wins.

Should have won more races. I've forgotten how to podcast. It's been a while. They have two very, very consistent drivers who are bagging a lot of points. When Perez's former's fallen off a cliff, even if Max is picking up wins, if the McLaren's a second and third,

you can say a like of like, oh, they should be winning every race. Yeah, looking at this, you look at the lead driver from China, whether that is Lando or Oscar, they've got a second, a first, second, second, second, second, second, second, third, first and a second.

Which Red Bull haven't. When Max is finishing sixth, fifth, or whatever, Perez is finishing seventh or eighth or whatever. So they're not picking up a lot of points there. And yeah, exactly what you said. This is borderline, not even bold. which, who'd have thought we'd be here saying that at the start of the season, but it's not bold anymore.

It's absolute madness. So there you go. That is it. We've locked in some bold predictions from you lot as well as our own. And I look forward to seeing absolutely none of these come true, and we're completely washed and living in a Dululu land. But that's what a way to come back from summer break, hey, Tommy, than just throwing random predictions into the atmosphere. It's what we do best. That's what people are here for, right? And yeah, excited for racing to get back now. I know, it's not far away. It's not long.

We're going to be back at Zanvort, so I should have actually said Max will win no more than two races after Zanvort, because let's be real here. That was a bit silly from me. But hey-ho, you never know. I may well be cooking something up in the predictions for the Zanvort race. I definitely am. I'm already getting excited.

So anyway, that is it. Tommy, what are your final thoughts, please, sir? Final thoughts are, it's good to be back chatting Waffle about F1 again. And let's hope people win more wins. And win more wins and Ferrari don't exist in the championship and all the other

random things that I've said during this podcast. Oh, Ferrari exists. Ferrari are you going to win the Constructors? Thoughts? Yeah, they were looking very good. My God. Yeah, just looking at their Wikipedia page and seeing like all the consistent points and then it just being green after Monaco.

but it's just points, good times. Yeah. Cool, right. Good place to end. So see you around, everybody. Lots of love. Podcasting, what is it again? Who knows? Bye.

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