P1 with Matt and Tommy - Predicting the 2026 F1 Championship: 22nd to 11th

Episode Date: February 23, 2026

We’re back with the first part of one of our most anticipated podcasts of the year: that’s right, testing times and vibes are helping us to predict the ENTIRE CHAMPIONSHIP TABLE. And we have changed our minds aplenty since our preseason predictions…Join us tomorrow for our top ten! Sign up to our Patreon! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyThis episode is sponsored by The AA, the UK’s No.1 breakdown provider. It’s OK with the AA, they’re the fastest major breakdown provider with more patrols up and down the country, 24/7, 365 days a year. So, if you want that peace of mind and be back on the road in no time - Join today at www.theaa.com/P1 T&Cs apply. Verify claims at theaa.com/bestFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. We are finally here for one of the most highly anticipated videos podcasts that we do all year, predicting the entire table from last to first and then reflecting on it at the end of the year of just how bad. All good, sometimes, sometimes good, ish, kind of, maybe one or two. But I think with this one, We might well be truly cooked, Tommy, because it's a massive regulation shift. We don't fully know the pecking order. But this is what makes doing this so much fun.

It's fun. It's so, so difficult. I am not joking when I say, particularly my top, like, six, maybe like eight to top eight, I have changed multiple times. Like, it's one of those where, like, no matter what you do, it feels like you're disrespecting. someone basically. It is crazy, isn't it? It really is. That's something that I felt at the entire way through. It wasn't even the top eight. Like, I was genuinely putting people and I have this every year. Yeah, I'm like, they can't be seven. And then I'm like, oh, but they can't be seven. Yeah. Well, I can't be seven. They can't be seven. Yeah. I don't think their car's going to be

very good. So therefore I'm going to put them there. It's going to be fascinating. I'm sure every single one of you will agree entirely with our predictions. I'm looking forward to this one. I just hope we disagree. No, if we have done, Don't do the same top five like last year. That would be insane this year in particular. Last year was fair enough because it was the end of the regulations. This one. This is one of my favorite podcasts to do.

It genuinely is. So let's get straight into the news and start with 20 second position. Who is winning the Wooden Spoon this year where we have 11 teams on the grid? My 22nd place. and again, I'm going to say this once. I'm going to say it's 100 times. No disrespect. Sergio Perez.

I'm sorry. Look, this is not going to go down well for Perez fans. However, it was a head-to-head jewel. Spoilers. Head-to-head jewel between the two Cadillac drivers. You've not put Bottas-12th. I have not put Bottas-12th. I'm going to tell you that right now.

It was a head-to-head duel between the two Cadillac drivers, and I have, rather humorously, backed Bottas. the entire way through. It's a head-to-head war between me and Tommy because, of course, he is backing Perez for this year. I'm backing my boy Bottas. So look, I have to put Perez 22nd. He will, I'm sure, do a good job in that Cadillac, but he is going to be restricted massively by the machinery he has. And I firmly believe the Cadillac will be the slowest team throughout the entire year. And therefore, I'm sorry, but it had to be done. So in 22nd, place I have picked

Valtrey Bottas. No surprise. I don't think anyone will be surprised about this. I've not changed my opinion on the fact that, you know, we have this joke with Peres and Bottas. Unfortunately for Cadillac, they are, I think, looking like they're going to be last,

if Aston Martin can up their game and finish a race, of course. And Cadillac, yeah, they're going to struggle. They've got two very experienced and good drivers and race winners. But, you know,

I don't think it's a crazy shout to say that one of them is going to have to be last in the championship. And I'm backing Perez over Bottas still, like we've kind of joked in the past. So I've gone for Bottas in 22nd place. All right, let's head to penultimate last, 21st. So 21st, no surprise, it's Sergei Perez. I think the Cadillacs will struggle to get points. But this was the reason why I backed Perez in the first place. those crazy races.

He was always won in a Force India that could get a podium in a midfield car in an absolute bonkers race. And, you know, if we have a couple of bonkers races in a season, I just think that Perez is more likely than Bottas to somehow spawn into like a... It could even be 12th, you know, like who knows what you're actually going to end up beating your teammate on

because it might not even be a point. It might just be a position. So, yeah, I'm backing Sergio Perez to finish a head. head of his teammate this year. Cool story, bro. In 21st position, I am backing Valtari Bottas. Now, I haven't gone for him winning the championship as much as I've backed him at the entirety of preseason testing.

It is a battle of the zero pointers. That's what I firmly believe right now, I can't see either of these guys getting a point unless we have the most insane race where we have massive DNFs. Maybe there's rain in the air as well. but for me, it's going to be a tough season for Cadillac. They had a reasonably strong preseason testing. They put some good mileage on the board, but I just think they're slow. There's not really been any moment where I've gone, oh, hold on.

Yes, okay, maybe Bottas did go up to like 10th or 11th at one point during preseason testing, which made me, to be fair, I've just lied. I did go a little bit, ooh, then, but I don't think that they've got really much pure performance in that car. and yeah, Bottas may well beat Perez with the 15th. That's, that's, I mean, of a similar opinion to you, Tommy. When it comes to those two drivers, right, 20th position, which was last, last year, but it's not this year. My 20th position is Lance Strall.

My boy Lance, yeah, he's going to, he's going to, I think he's going to have a poor season. I think Aston Martin are going to have a poor season. They're going to definitely have a poor start to the season, unless this is the great. sandbagging we've ever seen in the history of the sport where they don't want to show any Adrian Newey innovations and they just didn't want to run. Well, look, six laps, we're done for the final test. Cheers.

But I just think that if there is someone that's going to do something special in that Aston Martin, it's not Lance Stroll, and that's why I've gone for 20th position, sorry, Lance. So 20th position, I've gone for Arvid Limblad. and yes this was a tough one to pick because racing bulls is a very difficult team to predict in my opinion I think it will be difficult for him as a rookie you know if you watch last year's video you can rinse and repeat what I said about had jar and we all know what had jar did last season so who knows limblad might be the absolute an absolute legend and do amazingly well but I know I've seen talks of racing balls do have like good performance and they're going to be quick

however looking at the other teams I don't it's maybe a bit savage but like I do think racing balls are one of the teams that mostly points on the table if you look at last year in particular you know I think they had an absolutely phenomenal car and yes they did quite they did well and they got a podium and stuff but you know had you I finished 12th in in the table in the end. I think they do leave points on the table and I think it's going to be difficult and they maybe don't maximize their results as much.

So I've gone for him in 20th. Yeah, their strategy has always been slightly questionable at times, hasn't it? Even when you look back to Pierre Gazley times, you know, when he was there. They have been one of the poorer teams for strategy so that's a fair point.

All right, let's go to 19th position. 19th, I have gone for Lance Strachau. I think it's going to be a very difficult year for Aston Martin. I do think they will improve throughout the year, but it's going to be such a tough start that it might be quite a few races before they even finish a race, never mind being in the point. So it's an uphill struggle. I don't feel like Lance is going to be very motivated having a rubbish car either.

And yeah, that's why I've gone for 19th first role. My 19th position, Gabriel Bortoletto. I am of the opinion that Audi may well struggle. I think this was the amount of times I heard challenges in their car launch was slightly concerning. I think they said challenges quite a lot during preseason testing as well. It's going to be a build year for Audi.

They've done a brilliant job again, similar to Cadillac in terms of the mileage that they managed to get in Bahrain. I'm not entirely convinced that they're going to have the pure speed over the course of a year. Holkenberg did show some promise, I guess, in Bahrain. But at the same time, they are a new outfit. They have an engine that I feel as though if I'm going to pick one that might have reliability issues, I would probably pick Audi just purely because of the lack of experience, the fact that they are running their own engine, that's going to have its own problems.

So, yeah, no disrespect to Bortoletto, but I just see Aldi being a team that may well have glimmers of pace, but overall may well struggle. In P-18, I have gone for Arvid Lindblad. V-Karb is a big old unknown, I would say. Some people are predicting them to be sixth or seventh fastest. I am not entirely convinced. And then it's just, this comes back to the conversation we're having at the start of, surely we can't be putting a V-car down in 18th. And you're just constantly second-guessing yourself.

But then you look at the other teams around them that I feel have shown stronger, at least in testing, then you have to put them there because you've got the big four teams. They're not going to be, well, maybe they will, but they're not going to be leaking into the ninth and belows. Or maybe they will. Who knows? But yeah, for Arvid Limblad, 18th won't be a bad season of him. As much as that sounds horrendous on paper, he's a rookie in a team that I don't think is going to be entirely quick this year. So I wish him the best of luck.

I think that in some ways it works in his favour if V-Carb aren't having these random podium shouts because it gives him time to learn Formula One to deal with the pressure that we know that rookies have struggled with in the past. So if he just has a car that's reasonably slow, get your feet in, get settled, put your slippers on. So 18th position I've gone for Liam Lawson. So similar, I guess, with the whole V-Carb Racing Bulls side. I think Lawson maybe showed a little more alongside Hadjar than kind of people gave him credit for. But I just don't see a racing bulls and a V-carb being as strong as some of the other teams.

And like you say, you kind of have to put one team down there. One thing that I'm really pleased about this season is how close. this pack does seem to be between the midfield and also the top teams in terms of like... And then a massive chasm in between the two. Yeah, exactly. But this has also made this prediction incredibly difficult because you have to put someone down there. And I just don't have a huge amount of trust in racing balls, but then every time I do, they end up with an absolute rocket ship of a car.

They're probably watching right now going, keep it up, Tommy. Every time you don't believe in us, we do well. They take it personally. They really do. Let's go to 17th position. 17th. I've gone for Alex Alburn, which is a very maybe extreme, first extreme prediction of the lot. I don't see Williams in very good light this season.

They didn't impress in testing, I don't think. And the way they've started the year is quite concerning. I would love them to turn it around. and I do believe that they can, but I think they're in a lot more pain than I may be thought, and it's going to be tough for them. And yeah, they have a great Mercedes engine underneath them, but it sounds like they're having a lot of trouble if they missed the test.

And I don't know, they just seemed kind of really anonymous in the test, and I feel like they may be even taking a step backwards, and it's going to be a tough year for them. Oh, all right. What first, slightly out there, prediction. In 17th position for me is Nico Holcomburg. I'm sorry, Nico. My fault, my bad, my bad.

I'm really sorry. You know, I know you got a podium last year. I know you did really well. But these rankings, I would say, are more so on the fact of car performance and where we all think the team will shake out. Otherwise known as Formula One. Yes, exactly. And then a little bit, of course, down to the driver as well.

For Nico, yeah, I think it's similar with the Gabriel-Bortoletto thing. I don't think they'll be massively different. I think Nico, as much as Borteletto did have a good run of races, and we were kind of questioning, where's Hulk gone after his podium? That was something that we were certainly wondering. I think this year, Nico will beat Gabriel, not by a huge amount, as I say, 17th versus 19th. But it's going to be tough. It's going to be tough to score points once again.

If we do have the bulletproof reliability of the front fall, which seemingly is the case, then it's going to be very tough to score points, especially in a car that I believe isn't going to be challenging at the top of the midfield either. Let's go to 16th position. I am locking in Liam Lawson. Lawson, I think, well, yeah, he is the team leader at V-Carb.

You can't deny that. Arvid is, of course, coming into this team with quite a bit hype. A lot of question marks over him as to how good he's going to be. but Lawson, as much as we feel like we've been speaking about him for years, he's not really had just a season to be settled in one team and not have some earth-shattering thing go on. So I think Lawson will have a good season in respect to the car that he'll have underneath him, and that's why I've gone for 16th.

16th place I have gone for my guy Fernando Alonso. I just don't. I'm not feeling good vibes about the Aston Martin, of course. Is it even delusional that he could be up in the dizzying heights of 16th? It's that bad for Aston Martin at the moment. I do think they'll improve and Alonzo is a driver that, you know, I think even to the like McLaren Honda days, I remember him getting like a fifth place or something in one of the races

where they're absolutely awful. So he can pick up points and deliver, but it's going to be such a struggle this year for Aston Martin. and I hope that if this is the case and he does finish all the way down the order, he hangs on for one more year and then another year and then another year, until he just wins again. And then we're celebrating his 50th birthday. Please just win a race again.

It's all I ask. Well, I don't think it's delusional, mate, because I've not even said his name yet. So, you know, might have made into the top five. Who knows? I know he didn't. Right, let's go to 15th position. 15th I've gone for Carlos Sainz. which is, again, very low like his teammate.

This is just where you place a team, and I've kind of gone all in on the fact that I don't think Williams are going to be that impressive. Rinse and repeat with Alex Alvin, really, that I hope they turn it around, but I do feel like they're in a big struggle, and they were so strong last year, like so impressive, and Carlos in particular,

like the end of the season he had, I was thinking, wow, look how good. they're going to be next year and then they've started with a car, you know, missing the shakedown and seemingly having problems where they're overweight, they can't unlock the performance and stuff. So yeah, Carla Sites all the way down in 15th. In 15th position for myself is Franco Colapinto. I believe that Alpine will have a good car. I do believe that we're going to see the best of Pierre Gasley once again. see where I've put him. But for Franco, I'm not absolutely sold right now as to where he is as a driver.

He's had, of course, those sort of amazing performances when he first came into Formula One, which then got him a seat. But there are mistakes in Franco's driving as well. 15th is not, you know, bad. I think it's more a case of, you know, when you see where I've put Pierre, that it's more about, I just firmly believe that Pierre, when he has the car underneath him, can really put in some phenomenal performances. Franco, we haven't quite seen that yet. I may well be wrong. And he could do a much better season with an Alpine that could well be fifth or sixth fastest. So yeah, I hope for Franco's sake I am wrong. But I have put him in 15th position. In 14th, Fernando Alonzo. Fernando Alonzo is finishing 14th in the championship table,

which as of right now is one of the most sort of generous predictions I could have put him out. This is a case of I am more and more convinced that we're not even going to see Aston Martin in Australia. As every day goes on, I don't think they even turn up. Or maybe they run it in practice and go, holy cow, we actually can't finish a race. I don't know.

There's something that's just, going wrong at Aston Martin quite drastically. However, I feel like they turn this around. I feel like we don't even talk about this when we get to halfway through the season. We see the Fernando Alonzo being able to unlock something in the car, getting some good points finishes, and somehow thrusting himself to 14th, which will seem like a championship win. And I think that might even well be a quote we hear at some point this year that Fernando Alonzo has had the greatest season of his life and that 14th feels like a championship to him considering the start of the year. But let's see. It's dire straits at Aston Martin right now.

And it's, it sucks. It sucks for Fernando. We want to see him at the front. It was great when he was challenging a few years ago in 2023 and getting podiums. But I just can't see that happening this year, sadly. 14th place I have gone for Esteban Ockon. I know Hass have had a very good test. Someone's, someone's become an Oli Beerman fanboy overnight.

Well, I mean, it's one higher than he finished last year for Esteban Ockon. I would love Esty Bessi to turn his form around, but I don't know, he had a really disappointing end to the season and kind of lost his mojo a little bit. And there was a lot of races where he seemed quite anonymous and he got these really big results, which I think he was still probably managed to do in some of the kind of wacky races when we have, as we mentioned, you know, I'm of the same opinion of you that the top eight in particular. be very hard to break into because it seems like there will be like a chasm between them, that he can be the one that that does deliver points.

But I've just been a little disappointed with his form recently. And I would love to see him turn it around, but I think he had a bit of a disappointing end to last season. And that's why I put him down in 14th. Okay, let's got a 13th position, Tommy. 13th. I've gone for Nico Holcombberg, which is quite high up for, Audi, I'm fully aware. I was quite impressed with Audi and how they managed to turn around quite a rubbish start, I think in the test and maybe look a bit stronger towards the end,

whether they can continue that development throughout the season. But I think, you know, if you're maybe a more sensible choice is to put Williams higher and Audi lower, and this is kind of the risk I've taken with this and gone that the Audi will perform maybe a lot better than Williams, which is why Holcomberg is up in 13th place. And clearly a firm disagreement, because I've not mentioned either Williams drivers right now. They're winning it all, Tommy.

In 13th position, I am locking in Esteban Ocon. I think Hasse are going to have a good car this year. Firmly believe it. I am also of the opinion that, we're not an opinion, it's fact that last year O'Con did struggle, and had some standout performances. I do believe he has some work to do to catch up to Olly Behrman, who I do genuinely think that he is going to get better and better

as the seasons go by in his F1 career. 13th is not a bad situation, by the way. That's not a bad place to finish in the championship when you have maybe the fifth, sixth, fastest car in Formula One. See, I think Ockoning will have some very strong performances across the year. I just hope for his sake, because I'm a big fan of him. I really hope for his sake that he can get the consistency that was lacking last year because Hasse were very impressive in the preseason test.

But then so were Williams last year when they topped the test. So, yeah, we can take as much as we can from preseason. That's right, isn't it? Williams were the fastest car at the end of preseason testing last year. Yeah, so take testing times as you will. But yeah, Ocon 13th for me. in 12th position Daddy Vowles

I'm not you're going to say Charlotte Claire then Jesus mate I would not be rubbing my hands if I'm putting Charleclare as 12

I was like why the pause no no no no the pause is because you know I'm putting my first Williams driver in of Alex Albon not Daddy Vowls

is obviously the team principal Alex Albon is 12th for me I back Daddy Vals to the hill he could turn me to jump off a cliff

and I would I do think that Williams will turn this around they have a Mercedes engine. Let's not forget this. You said it in a way of like, oh, they have a Mercedes engine,

but they can't unlock the potential. This could be a very much a trajectory where, yes, they start off pretty slow, but then start to have great results. I think Albonne and Sines are a highly underrated driver pairing that can do some pretty awesome things. So I do believe that 12th for Alex Albonne is maybe slightly high as of right now, but as I say, I do think that they will turn this around.

And I've said it, I've said it before, I say it again. James Fowse. He's going to be team principal of the generation one day. So yeah, I back the Williams belief still. Come on Williams as the meme is. I've got to sound like a boomer. But Alex Albon, P12 for me. P12, I've gone for Gabrielle Bortoletto.

So ahead of Holkenberg. But yeah, Audi is doing very strong. I said that he'd be the good surprise. I think last year his talents were not shown with his championship position. I think he did a lot better than 19th in the championship gave him credit for. And I do genuinely believe he is a really strong talent and one for the future that's going to be really, really strong in Formula One. And I hope that Audi deliver a car that he can show that. And I've obviously backed that they will be in that kind of midfield pack, very much so.

and I think if Audi do have a car that I think we're going to see like a lot of people fighting for 9th and 10th every race is going to be the fight for 9th and 10th in those races to score points and I think Audi yeah they were impressive how quickly they turned around their woes in testing

Okay very interesting the Audi hype train Tommy is the conductor Let's go to P11 P11 I've got gone for Franco Colapinto, which is very high up. I imagine a lot of people are already thinking that's quite a crazy prediction. Of course, he finished 20th last year, didn't score a point. And we've seen that Colapinto has it in him to deliver.

He's outqualified, Gazley, when he kind of has his moments. We saw what he did to basically be able to be in that seat in Alpena in the first place where he impressed at Williams massively and he came in and we all questioned like, oh, okay, Colapinto's like giving Albin a run for his money here. And I think Alpine have looked very, very strong from testing. They seem to have a great car, maybe even fifth best at the moment.

And if they are, you know, they've put a lot of effort into this and we've seen that sometimes that works, sometimes that doesn't, but I back Alpine to make it work this year with the fact that they've gone all in on 2026. And I think they'll have a great car. They've got a great engine.

And I think they'll be very strong. Okay. P-11 for myself, Oliver Behrman. Strong season ahead for Ollie, I do believe. Whether he's ready to take on some of the other big dogs that I've not mentioned in the midfield teams. It's yet to be seen. A P-11 for Ollie would be a great.

result. Has, as I've said, insane mileage in Bahrain. I am a big Olly Behrman Stan, as you all know. So, yeah, he was really impressive last year, especially towards the end of the year. Shouldn't really have been beating Ockon in the team at this stage, but he was. And I think he'll build on that. We're talking about the new regs, a bit like Formula 2 cars. The aerodynamics is a little bit more difficult. And I do think that the younger drivers, to some degree, will be able to, I don't know, adapt quicker, perhaps, and not even have to adapt if you're Harvard Lindblad. Actually, let me change 18th, Harvard Lindblad. Let me put him in the top five.

Yeah, all these young kids on their phone and their games controllers, that's what it is, right. Exactly, exactly. So, yeah, I'm back in Olly Behrman at P-11. Okay, Tommy, so we have done our 22nd all the way to 11th. and I just want to chat about this because for the first time ever we have disagreed the entire way through. We have not had one single driver

that was the same. I don't think I noticed that. That's wild. Because you've never gone or I've never gone, I've also gone for. Yeah, true. New Year New Earth. This is, I could cry. This is unbelievable.

Who are we? Because of course you have backed the Audi hype train. I have backed the Williams hype train I've even put Fernando Alonzo higher than you Can we can we just talk about that for a second Who is the true Fernando Alonzo fanboy on this podcast Because 16th like let's talk about that for a second Because that I know you feel like that's delusion

But could also Do you not think that they will turn it around eventually Once they've got the data halfway through the season To a point Or do you think they'll be too far back I think there'd be too far back by that point potentially. I'm looking at, I know they had a whole season of being absolute stinkers, but 2015, Fernando Lonsie finished 17th in the championship. And he only scored two points more

than Marcus Erickson. You know, he's an amazingly talented driver, but if you've not got the machinery, you can't deliver. So I do think Asson Martin is going to be an absolute horrendous year. And I do think they will get to the point. Maybe I wouldn't, you're kind of more confident maybe by midseason we won't even be talking about it. I think they will, of all the teams that will progress through the field, Asa Martin will be the most. They kind of have to be. Otherwise, they will literally, you know, they will literally not finish races if they don't progress. So I do think that they can literally go from being last to not finishing a race to maybe like the seventh fastest team. But do you kind of see more maybe that they could be like the fifth fastest by

the end? and yeah i think it it firmly depends on how quickly you believe this will be turned around because if they manage to do it in five races all of a sudden you're going oh oh actually hold on uh you know maybe maybe 16th is a bit too low if they don't manage it till five races till the end then 14th is the most ridiculous prediction uh i've ever done Fernando's probably finishing 20th so it's uh it's fascinating because we don't know the answers astern martin probably don't even know the answers uh i know for a fact it's probably that sponge bob meme with everything being on fire right now uh because

it was an absolute disaster of a test for them. But you just think of all the personnel that are there. Like, how could they not turn it around? But it really just depend. Of course, there's cost caps. There's things in place that they can't just throw a billion pounds at it and go, let's fix everything. They've got the facilities.

There's no excuse for them to not turn it around. I love the way we've been like, yeah, Asamartan will turn it around, surely. And we've both gone for stroll, 20th and 19th. So we're not really backing stroll. We're backing Alonso. to do something crazy. I think looking at your, because you've just sent me now,

your 22nd to 11th so I can closely look at this. I think the biggest difference we have across the whole grid is Bortolete. Yeah. I believe. So yeah. So you've obviously gone that Audi are going to have a tough year,

whereas I've kind of backed them to be quite good. And in 12th and 13th, I can't believe we've not disagreed. Sorry, we've not agreed on a single one. one. Yeah, it's a miraculous moment. I'm sure it will, you know, maybe the top 10 won't be the same. But yes. Have we picked all the same drivers just in the different order? Yes. No, no, no, no. Okay. No, because you've not. I've not said Olly Behrman yet. You've not mentioned Olley Behrman. And you've not mentioned science yet. I have not. And I put science all the way down in 15th. So, well, what a beautiful tease that is, Tommy, because this is the end of the first.

episode, the 22nd to 11th, we'll be back for 10th to first, which I know for a fact is going to be spicy. So Tommy, what are your final thoughts, please? Final thoughts are you're not going to want to miss 10th to first because I said it at the start of the show. I have changed this so much. And I'm looking at it again going, do I change it again? No, we're not going to change it again. But this is, this is great for it. It's great that it is this way. I wanted it to be unpredictable even after testing. And yeah, we just don't know yet. So excited to hear what you've gone for as well. Exactly. Could we be on for 22 predictions and we don't go for a single one the same?

We do like the top nine in identical or something. You just hear that. I've also gone down. Oh no, here we go again. Boo. Change it, change it. Right. Thank you everybody. We'll see you soon. Lots of love to care. Bye. Stack production and part of the ACAST created network.