P1 with Matt and Tommy - Predicting the crazy 2024 F1 silly season

Episode Date: January 22, 2024

Plenty of drivers are out of contact at the end of the upcoming season. So where will they end up? Will they stay with their current team, leave F1 completely or... are we about to enter the silliest season of all time? You can sign up to our Patreon here! You'll get access to exclusive episodes you won't hear anywhere else, every P1 episode ad-free, full driver interview videos, early access to tickets and more!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Tommy intro edition. Love that. Absolutely love that for YouTube. You actually won't have that for audio, will you? No. Tommy, you'll have to go watch us on visuals as well. Exactly.

Today, we are going to be making some predictions because people love our predictions. Some last year were incredible, me, and some of them were really washed. So we are going to basically predict today the 2024 F1 driver market because, as we have already mentioned, there are a lot of contracts ending at the end of this year, which means there should be some changes. Please. Can you imagine if we get that to the end of 2024

and it's the same line up again? Yeah, we've started P1 and it's like there will now be no driver changes ever. that would be really annoying because last year obviously it was the first time in F1 history that nothing changed but boy there are a lot of people out of contract now

so surely it must must be they can't not change every year they can't stay every year right before we dive into that we have a five-star review that comes in from For the Love of F1 in the USA

if you want your five-star review to be read out please do let us know why by submitting a five-star review and letting us know why I love this podcast, until I haven't said that in a while. I listened to your podcast with Daniel Ricardo, and I loved that he fell in love with this small town. I received a package in the mail today from Rancho Cucamonga, and I felt a certain Danny had channeled my love for doing this sort of thing, too, and had sent me something. It turned out to be a small dog statue I had ordered to go on my son and his future bride's wedding cake.

What a coincidence the Etsy creator is from there. Maybe Danny ran into him. This guy could make small replicas of Daniel Ricardo. We could all carry him around in our pocket. it's ha ha ha that is amazing story I do love how I'm like leave us a final show of you and let's know why you love this podcast and there was not one part that was anything to do with what they love podcasts

I saw it they love rancho cookamonga and had to do it no it makes it absolutely passes the passes the tester so great to see and if you haven't if you have no idea what I've just said it's from the Daniel Ricardo video slash podcast that we did with him the road trip that we did in the USA. Right then, let's speak about exactly who is out of contract in 2024, because there's a lot of them.

Sergio Perez, Charlercler, Carlos Seines, Fernando Alonzo, Lance Troll, Esteban O'Con, Pierre Gasley, Joe Guanyu, Valtry Bottas, Yuki Sanoda, Daniel Ricardo, Nico Holcomberg, Kevin Magnuson, Alex Albonne, and Logan Sargent. Now, what we're going to do is... There is a lot. What we're going to do is go through them one by one and predict if they will stay, move or leave.

And if anyone has moved, we will then go through that as to where we think they've gone at the end. Are you ready, Tommy? Let's do it. Okay, let's start where we always begin in driver ratings and everywhere else. Logan Sargent, will he stay, will he move, or will he leave?

I am going to kick things off here with a spicy little take. And that is he will leave Formula One. Not that part, probably the spiciest thing you've ever heard, but I believe he's going to be replaced by someone very interesting. Now, shall I go into that as well, Tommy? I feel like we, because it's not the move. This is the leaving part. So we should probably say who...

Are we throwing drivers in as well who's going to replace them? Yeah, I think that's... exciting. Oh, okay, go on then. Okay, so Logan Sarge will leave Formula One. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you've got this, you've got this. And I believe he will be replaced by Kimmy Antonelli, who will have an amazing Formula 2 season.

Everyone will be like, oh, my days, this kid is the new, blah, blah, blah, insert Lewis Hampton, Max Rostab and whoever, whatever name you might choose. And he has Mercedes ties, so let's not forget, Williams have Mercedes engines. Williams has also been, you know, is kind of Pally, as I say, with Merck and Merck want to sometimes trial out a bit of talent. And I believe if Kimmy does have a sensational Formula 2 year, we will see him on the grid in 2025. Ooh, that's interesting. Yeah, there's a lot of hype around Kimmy. So that would be a fascinating one.

For Logan Sargent, I have also gone that he will be dropped or leave Formula One at the end of, the season. I'm not going to go into who I think will replace him because that will spoil a future person on this list. So I'll leave you hanging on and tease you all, but yeah, Logan Sargent, one thing I do hope if this prediction comes in, I think just for the sake of it feeling like a P1 podcast, even if he leaves Formula One, we have to start with him in everything. and just mention that he's not in F1 anymore. So in 2025 we go, starting with Logan Sargent, he's not in Formula One and then start with the next driver.

He's racing in something else. Yeah. When we speak about his race, he said, well, Logan had a good Weck race last time. He finished 17th. I'm going to give him a four out of ten. Yeah. It has to be done. It's like traditional now to start talking about him

at the start of every podcast. So yeah, but I, yeah, I don't know. I think he's going to leave Formula One. I think they'll try again. I'm not holding out much hope that he'll improve a huge amount. And I think he'll be, though Williams will decide for him to leave at the end of the season. Yes. Yeah, we need to see more potential from Logan, as we've said many, many times.

And if he does that, then our predictions will be completely and utterly wrong. But we are basing it on what we saw this year. let's see if James Vowles can craft a masterpiece out of Logan's sergeant. Next up, Alex Albon, stay, move or leave? I have gone that Alex Albin will move from Williams. Dun, dun, dun. And like we said at the start, we will get into it at the end, but I think Alex Albin will have another great season in Williams.

They're kind of moving up the grid. Alex Albon was really consistently good last season. I think I'll have a similar season and we'll get a move. Here we go. Okay, spicy McSpicestersson, let's go. I have gone for stay. Yes, I don't think it will be time just yet for Alex Albon to do his little moves. And as I mentioned around Mercedes and ties like that, perhaps a Mercedes.

Sade's move later down the line might be something that he is eyeing up. But as for right now, I don't think there's any move, especially if Williams with James Vowles at the helm. I don't think Alex Albon needs to go anywhere. As long as the progression and the improvement continues with Williams, we've seen over the years that they can, they can produce a good car and sometimes be towards the front. It hasn't happened very often, but it's been possible. And I am a strong believer in James Vowson. I believe Alex Albon might be as well. So he's going to stick it out. I reckon it'll be like a one-year contract just to be like, all right, let's get over to new regulation territory and then we'll start looking at where to move. Nice. Kevin Magnerson,

stay, move or leave. I believe Kevin Magnerson will leave Formula One at the end of 2024. And I I think he is also going to be replaced by someone, not on the F1 grid. And therefore, I am allowed to mention this, Tommy. He's going to be replaced by Olly Behrman. Absolutely. Stone, Cole, done, bish, bash, bosh. Olly Beerman has done enough in those free practice sessions to prove that he has got the minerals to be on the Formula One grid. KMAG, we've, on countless occasions last year, were like, why is he there?

What is he up to? The occasional rare moment where you're like, oh, K-Magg, okay, you got out of Q1, let's go. But realistically, Nika Holcomberg smashed him last year. If that continues again this year, he's going to leave. Hasse are going to get a little new star in Olly Berman into that seat. So I have also gone that Kevin Magnerson

will be dropped at the end of the year. I think that Hasse have already shown that they're ready to make changes with the fact that they've got rid of Gunther. And if Magnuson has another season like that, I think it's time for him to go. And the person I think will replace him is not on the list. And very annoying for all those that like us disagreeing

because I also think Ollie Bearman would be a great shout for Hass because he's got those Ferrari links. And I think after another season in Formula 2, he'll be ready to take that step up. He's not, you know, I don't think Hasse are going to sign anyone big, and then they'll have that perfect balance of an exciting young driver and an experienced driver in Niko Holcomberg. And I think that Olly Berman, yeah, is a great shout

because Hasse need to promote someone young and try and, you know, add a bit of spice and excitement and change something in that team. So, yeah, I think Berman would be a great shout. Nika Holkenberg, stay, move or leave? I've gone for stay. I kind of already sported it in the last one a little bit. But yeah, I think he'll continue to outperform Magnuson

and he's just a solid driver. Hopefully the house improves that they can actually do racing and not just qualifying. so Holkenberg can get some points and stuff, but I think he'll deliver again as much as he can in a car that I don't think is going to be particularly great, but Holkenberg, I think, is going to stay.

I also think Nico Holkberg is going to stay. Similar to your thoughts, Tommy, he's been decent last year, just completely and utterly hindered by the car on a Sunday, but he had some star performances in qualifying, which shows exactly what Nico still has in the locker for the next few years.

And yeah, I believe Hasse will be silly not to keep Nico Holkenberg because he's that experience and mix that with a young talent like Olly Behrman, I think will be a winning combination. You know what I mean? It'll be a better combination. That is a bond prediction.

Yes, yeah, that's not quite where I was going with that. But yeah, I think Nico will stay. Daniel Ricardo, stay, move, or leave? I have gone for move and you will know why more

at the end I think he will move I think he's going to go on a little adventure but where's he going to go we'll have to find out later I can't possibly think where because I have also predicted

that Daniel Ricardo will move to a certain team I think he's so, so PG-18 right now. So Daniel Riccardo, yeah. I think he showed glimpses. We didn't, he didn't have that full campaign, and I think a full campaign under him.

Yeah, he's going to, I think he'll get a move. We, by the time this podcast comes out, maybe it would be confirmed. They've changed their name. should we just mention it, Visa Cash App RB, which is somehow even worse than the steak kick salba thing. But, yeah, Daniel Ricardo, I think if he does well there, looks like they might, if they carry on the way they did at the end of last season,

he could put in some great performances, and it will get a certain team be very interested because we know how much they like him. Yes, what ambiguity. I bet you can't guess. That's crazy. You'll have to stay tuned to find out. Yuki Sonoda now, stay, move or leave? I've gone for stay.

I found this one quite tricky. Stay now. Because I think Yuki Sanoda, the thing I found difficult with most of these is we're having a big regulation change in 2026. So essentially you have one year so do people move and then you essentially have one year before everything changes or do you wait and just get another year contract and then go?

And I think Yuki Sanoda, if he continues to perform well at Visa Cash App R.B or whatever or whatever, I know if they're going to be called. Well, it's not technically completely confirmed. Racing Bulls are Alpha Tauri, sorry. We're not confirmed just yet. So if he has another good year at Alphotauri and puts in some solid performances, I think Honda will naturally, because of course they're going to Aston Martin

will want a Japanese driver in there. But of course, they've got Fernando Alonzo who won't want to leave, and Lance Stroll, who is not allowed to leave. So I think they just allow that extra year staying in that team and then maybe he moves to Aston Martin eventually. I've also gone for stay for Yuki Sanoda.

Very similar thinking again, Tommy. I don't believe it's right for Yuki to move right now. I don't think even the possibility, as you say, is there. Of course, he has been linked to the whole Aston Martin Honda partnership that will be probably going on for 2026, wasn't it, onwards. So whether that will come to fruition, we'll have to wait and see. But this is, of course, for the end of 2024. Where would Yuki go if he doesn't stay at Alphotari

slash visa slash ATM slash credit card slash whatever they're going to be called? Credit card racing. I think, yeah, I think that's probably a better name than what we've got it. Yeah. Yeah, so I think Yuki will stay for now. And fingers crossed, he, especially for your sake, Tommy, just continues to sort of slowly improve year by year. Valtari Bottas, stay, move or leave.

I have gone for stay for Valtry Bottas. I don't think he's quite retiring just yet. He's in his Kimmy Reichen era. I feel as though he'll be there for a few more years, enjoying his cycling as we saw him in the Las Vegas Hotel that we were staying at, rolling his bicycle through one of the nicest hotels in Las Vegas. And he's just having a great time, isn't he?

Like, he's such a down-to-earth human being, just rolling around, enjoying his F-1, enjoying not having to compete against Lewis Hamilton, which is absolutely fair enough. he hasn't had the best season but I don't think it's been that bad he's a race winner he's got prestige and he's got history in Formula One

he knows how to win and I don't think it will be wise for the team to get rid of him and I don't think he'll be willing to move either I've gone that Valtby Bottas will retire from Formula One he will leave

so not stay move or leave retire I said leave F1. Say the word, Tommy. He will leave. He will leave F1. I think Valtry Bottas, that team is going through

some changes, not just their name. They'll have another new name in 2026. They'll want to, and this is where I find it so difficult, again, talking about Yuki Sonoda. Stake are going to change to Audi in 2026, but they're both their drive.

is ending at 2024. So how does that process happen? So my prediction is that Bottas will leave F1. I think it will be maybe it would be like a mutual thing, but maybe he's pushed a little bit and goes off and does some nude cycling or something. Oh, wow. And who's he going to be replaced by it, Tommy?

Because if it's not on the F1 grid, you've got to tell us. Well, I won't tell you then. Oh my God, the suspense is crazy. Okay, let's go to Zhou Guan Yu then. Stay, move or leave? I have gone for Joe Guan Yu is dropped. So steak, both drivers. And one of them joining is on the grid.

one of them is not so I will say now the person that's not on the grid and that is teapourcher I think he will be sat on the sidelines the classic winning f2 role where you essentially get to wear some team kit and sit on a pit wall with some headphones on and then he'll do some tests and things like that and then an entire new driver lineup for for stake for the next year and he will be one of them. I don't. Joe, I thought, was a lot better than people gave them credit for, but there's just something, I know it's a hard team to impress in, because they are so incredibly midfield and just there's not really much there, a bit like Hass. But I expected maybe a bit more from him. So yeah, I think he'll be dropped. Something I'm really upset. Do you know why I'm upset?

I thought I was on to something. I thought I was just going through this dark path and shedding the light to everybody with my prediction. You've said exactly the same thing as what I was going to say. So I also believe he will leave and be replaced by Teo Porcere, mainly because he's been on a level with Bottas, but Bottas is chilling. And he hasn't really shone much at all,

as Jo Guanyu. I think the only time I can really remember is Zan for it when he was just randomly in second place. But it hasn't really been many star moments for Joe. And I think it'll be sad. I think some people will be like, that's a bit unfair, he's still a new driver. But for me, I think they'll keep Valtry Bottas for a year or two more because of his experience,

but they will drop Joe Guan Yu and try out Teo Porcère, who of course is highly regarded, Formula 2 champion, mainly because Joe hasn't shone as much as people may have hoped for. So yeah. Screw you Tommy Right Pierre Gasley Stay, move or leave

I've gone for stay I think this is going to be a very boring stay I think Alpine are enjoying their French driver line up Spoiler alert And I think they would be unwise To try and make a change there I think Pierre Gasley was

Quietly impressive Last year And I don't think Pierre has anywhere really That he can go he's kind of finally got out of the Red Bull, I guess, slightly toxic family for him and after all the things he's been through. And yeah, with Alpine, that's probably his best bet of being anywhere near the front at the moment. So stay. I've also gone for stay for Pierre Gasley. He's only just gone there. I think he was far more impressive, of course. We both

said that he'd be biggest flop, and he certainly wasn't beating Ockon, which, was a surprise to me and he put in some really underrated performances as well. So I think Gazli's best bet is to stay and I think Alpina will want him to stay as well. Estabana Ocon, stay, move or leave? I've gone for stay for Esteban O'Con. I think much to drive to survive's disappointment, the partnership of Gazley and O'Con seems absolutely fine, working well. there's been the odd moment, nothing major, maybe Vegas when it seemed like they were trying to get them to hold station.

And there might be a bit the odd thing, but it seems to be, they seem to get over it quite quickly, or at least from a PR perspective, they do. And I think, yeah, it just makes sense to keep that all French line up for Alpine because they're both good drivers that, I think are well suited to that team. There was actually a few moments for them, wasn't there? There was Japan as well, wasn't there? There was Australia where they came in together. Yeah, considering, I've also gone for Estadalk on stay because whatever did go on behind closed doors last year didn't surface really at all,

apart from the slight outburst Japan for Gassley, I would say. So clearly they are able to work together to a reasonable degree, and I think Alpine should keep them and I think they will both feel the same way the drivers as well. So stay for Ocon. Lance Stroll now. Stay, move or let your father

give you permission to leave Formula One. Are you ready for this? Okay. Yeah. Suspensual music is playing right now. I am going to lock in. Stay. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. I know this is left field. I know that a lot of people think Lance Stroll is going to be removed from the team, but I do not. I think asked me in a few years, it seems as though Lauren Strull might be, you know,

there's been some talk, isn't there, about him sort of removing some of his stake in the team and that sort of stuff. But I think as of right now, he's still very much clinging on to his son winning a championship for him one day. And yeah, I think he'll stay for now, all lans. Yeah, I've also gone for stay, no surprise, because I think as well, maybe in a few years' time, like you say,

there might be time where Lawrence goes, is it worth this anymore? But I think the thing for me is... Then he looks to this bank account and goes, oh, I didn't even see any of the money to come out of the account. Yeah, exactly. Lance Stroll, like the Ashton Martin project has only just really started. So while Lance had a really poor season last year,

it would be, it doesn't make sense. for like Lawrence to basically be like, oh no, this isn't working as they're sort of, they've made that one step up. They've obviously got the factory and there's so much things going on at Aston Martin that's trying to propel them up the grid,

a Honda, you know, deal as well, things like that. So that all, they're kind of becoming that almost, yeah, like a works team and they'll have something there.

So I don't see, Lawrence basically binning off Lance or selling the team until they've given it a good go in like 2026 and then if that doesn't work then maybe that is the time where he goes out well this isn't working in sales his shares or whatever but until then I think he'll he'll stay Fernando Alonzo stay move or leave but before you do answer that time I feel like we haven't actually spoken about the t-shirt that you're wearing in this video purely because I think it needs some appreciation. So can you just show that off fully, please,

by sitting up and showing off the Frank T-shirt? Now, this is not widely available on the P1 merged or just yet. However, if there is enough demand, that will be released, as well as some hats and beneys coming hopefully very soon as well. But I feel as though that might actually be our bestseller, Tommy. So perhaps we need to think about the Frank merch as well. Well, hopefully Frank will let us use his image rights. I know we'll have to speak to him, maybe give him a few treats to say yes.

But yeah, I thought I'd get that out the way just because people, I think, would be wondering what you're wearing on your t-shirt. So, Fernando Alonzo, stay, move or leave? I am going for stay. I think Fernando won't want to leave, just as he's got that taste of podiums again. And he's made his first career move, essentially, since... or maybe Ferrari, even though it didn't go massively to plan, but at least that first step. It's been a while since he's been known as this guy

that always goes to the wrong team at the wrong time. And Fernando Alonzo's got out of Alpine, moved to Austin Martin. He got a lot of podiums last season, and he's still shown a lot of the time during the season that he's still got the racecraft, the skill, and all that good stuff. The minerals.

saving that one for you. I don't know I'll send the minerals. But yeah, Fernando will stay another year, I think. I also believe Fernando Alonso will stay

for another year, maybe 10. I think he can go for as long as his body will allow him to. And I believe that teams will be willing to keep him

for as long as he's able to perform, even if his performance drops off slightly and is only matching Lance Stroll, like, you know, I don't actually see that. I don't ever see a Fernando Alonzo drop off, though, after last year, it was so incredibly impressive what we watched from him that I think he could easily go another five years

minimum if he wanted to. So let's see, but I think he will stay for now. Carlos Sines, stay, move or leave. I have gone for stay for Carlos Sines. I think he, well, there's been talks and rumours hasn't there around him. wanting a long-term contract with Ferrari and there being maybe some slight hold-ups around what that might look like.

I think that Ferrari won't budge on that and Carlos will sign a sort of short-term deal with Ferrari to continue the partnership with the team. But yeah, I don't think there'll be any changes at this side of Ferrari at the end of 2024. I've gone that Carlos Sites will move. Dun, Dun, dun,

um, probably my most controversial one, I guess. But, um, yes, I think he will, uh, move, or get,

why, get into why at the end. But, um, yeah, I can see, uh, Carlos moving from Ferrari.

It all is coming together. What is Tommy cooking right now? He is, he's put that apron on. Who has let him cook? That's the question. we will find out. Charlecler, stay, move or leave.

I've gone that Charlecler will stay at Ferrari. There's obviously rumours that he's going to sign an enormous contract to take him through to 2029 potentially and confirm our existence on Twitch until 2029 as well. and uh... but yeah uh... I think

despite all the the banter and stuff uh... Charlotte Clair he loves Ferrari and I think in 2022 he showed that he could deliver for them if the car's right and he will he's got time on his side

it's not like he's a older driver that needs to make a move because his time's running out so I think he'll stay for as long as he can at Ferrari in the hope of getting that dream title with them. So for Charles LeCler, stay move or leave, I have gone for World Champ. Oh, sorry, that's the wrong podcast.

I've gone for stay as well. Some people might have heard me saying on this side of the garage, no, I think that Ferrari will keep their driver line up at the end of 2024. I think they're a really impressive driver lineup. Carlos Sein showed some brilliant performances last year. and if he can continue to build on that into 2024 and beyond, Ferrari would be silly to even think about getting rid of him. So yeah, I think Sons and LeClaire will stay together at Ferrari.

Sergio Perez. Stay, move or leave? I have gone for leave. Now, I think this will be controversial. I think this will be sad, because I don't think he deserves to not have a place in Formula One, but we also know how sometimes this can work out for drivers. Ocon springs to mind as a driver that had to literally leave Formula One

because he lost his seat and also there was no other seat available for him that fit his criteria and perhaps other team's criteria as well. And I feel as though Sergio Perez might sort of feel the wrath of that somewhat at the end of 2024. I think that he does, as I say, deserve to be in Formula One. but that is unfortunately how the circus works sometimes and I think he will be replaced by someone on the Formula One grid

which will get onto very shortly once Tommy has answered his Sergio Perez question So Sergio Perez I've gone for move to a different team and I think that this kind of leads more into and I'll go into where I think I'll go later, but I think Sergio Perez will have a better year,

but I think for me, Red Bull, I've almost seen a path for someone. I wonder who it could be. And they're doing what they can to make that happen. And that's why I think that Sergio Perez will move on. And I don't necessarily think it would be a, bad thing for him either.

It would be bad if mine comes true, but if it's yours, then it might be good. It might be a botas situation in some ways. Okay, right. Now we are into the moving section for those that are currently on the F1 grid. Tommy, you've got quite a few, I think. So why don't you roll with yours? Do I go through all of them, or do we do one and one? Do I just go through one?

One on one's fine, but I mean, some of them I might not have because I might have said something different. So. Should we just get rid of the one that we all know is going to happen then? And, well, that we keep joking about, you'll never guess this one. Who do you think is going to move to? Where do you think Daniel Ricardo is going to go? So I think Daniel Ricardo is going to go to the FIA, head of the FIA.

Head of smiling at the FIA. He's going, in my opinion, to Red Bull. But he will go with a. different mindset to what he had previously, where he's going to be happy to be fighting for podiums for the potential victory. But I feel as though he will know deep down that Max Westappen is just that little bit better. Now, we know that Formula One drivers are deluded, and they all think they're the best. But I think if Daniel Ricardo does make it back to Red Bull, that should be seen as a massive W for him, not, okay, well, he gets beaten by Max Verstappen

17 of the races in the season he does go there. So yeah, I think Danny Rick could well see himself back in Red Bull. Yeah, I've gone for the same, no surprise. It just feels like Red Bull are making this path for him, you know, his return and then for them to stick with him. You know, Lawson was doing really well. They kept Daniel Ricardo on board. I wonder if Daniel Ricardo had done the full half a season

and maybe had the opportunity to do some more performances like he did in Mexico. They might have even done this sooner. But I don't think, like I mentioned, I don't think Perez is going to have like an absolute stinker like he did. I obviously think it would be enough that they'll make the choice. But it just seems like Red Bull, particularly like Helmut Marco and Christian Horner, obviously love him. And yeah, it seems like they've almost.

made up their mind and they really want to see that that happening and this is the whole sort of bringing him back this is their eventual end goal with him so I could see it happening and completely agree with the whole that he'll kind of maybe be a bit more sort of understanding that of why they're they're sort of favouring more Vestappen and and sort of it would be like like you say, like him winning the odd race and getting podiums will be like something for him to enjoy rather than it being like, oh, I'm in Max's shadow, this is rubbish. I'm, I don't want to be here. Okay, let's move to now who will replace Daniel Ricardo at ATM cash visa red racing bull. I have gone for, no surprise, Liam Lawson, because Liam Lawson, because Liam Lawson,

has been promised a seat in 2025, and this makes the most sense, especially if Rebbe War carving a route for Daniel Ricardo elsewhere, then it will allow for Liam Lawson to slot in very nicely and get that seat. I don't think it's too controversial or needs particular reasoning. We've seen just how good Liam Lawson was in that very quick sort of jump into Formula One and have to perform. I think Zanvort, even though, you know, he didn't, I don't think he scored any points, did he, Zanvort, but he was, the fact that he managed to just drive in those conditions and keep it out

the wall was actually probably for me the most impressive of the whole lot, because that was his debut as well, like to jump in the car, have to drive in the most difficult conditions you can ever possibly wish upon a driver for the, for that, or not wish upon, but you know what I mean, like to throw at a driver for their first, first race was, was crazy and he, he just delivered. So, yeah. Yeah, I've also gone for the, I mean, it's the obvious choice. I don't think there's any doubt that if one of the Alphateri or whatever they're going to be called, credit card racing, whatever, are going to move. It's 100% Liam Lawson.

And I think it's even, there's no way he's signed that contract to be a reserve driver after how well he did if he's not essentially been promised to see it in 2025. there's a lot of rumours that that is the case and I feel like that will happen that Lawson's wherever that is in the Red Bull family he will have a drive and if Daniel Ricardo moves up like we both think then it's the makes the most sense

for him to slot in there and then yeah see how his career goes from there now I don't have any more moves Tommy but you do because you've been chefing the last five minutes. Off you go and then I'll let you know how washed your opinions are.

Okay. So they're all quite, they're all maybe bomb shells. So let's start with Perez then. So I said Perez would move. And some will see this as like a disrespect, but I actually think this is a really good move and I think it would suit him massively.

And I've gone for Williams. with Sergio Paris because I think that he would he is so good at delivering in a car that's like almost there you saw what he did at racing point force India things like that and I think he will be pushed out of Red Bull but his time like we've seen with like you know Botas and these drivers like he won't want to leave just yet and it's something that all Formula One drivers seem to go through that they just they want to hang on and even even though it sounds like a massive downgrade to go from Red Bull to Williams, I feel like he would be really well suited there.

And I think he would kind of go to them and deliver some strong performances. So I've gone for Williams for Sergio Perez. Okay, let me chime in there. Before you start cooking some more, let's relax a second. You know, when you say, oh, will you be a really good team for him? I would also say, would he have any other option, realistically if he was dropped from Red Bull. Yeah, I've been sure.

I think that, as you say, I think any driver would rather stay in Formula One than be dropped completely. I guess if I throw in my Kimmy Antonelli prediction that he does amazingly in Formula 2, do you think Williams would still go for Sergio Perez over a potential new upcoming talent? Well, yes, because I've also said that Alex Albin will move.

oh okay come on chef next one Alex Albin I think we'll move to Ferrari yeah yeah so I've obviously already said that Carlos Sainz is going to move I think Alex Albin would be a great shout of Ferrari

and the reason it kind of covers both I think Alex to have another great season and be that solid driver the reason I think Carlos Sainz will leave Ferrari and then this is why I think Albin will move up there and be that

a great replacement Carlos Sites is a really tricky one because I feel like there's always these talks of Audi and no surprise that I've gone for steak stake F1 team that he'll move to

it's a big risk of course like if he does it and especially like one step early. But I think Carlos Sainz has to weigh up that if Ferrari delivered a world championship car, would he win the world championship? And I think he's a fantastic driver, but I think they would build the car around Leclair like 2022,

and LeClaire would be the one to, and is going to be the one that gets this huge contract as well from the rumours that it seems like. So Carlos Sainz maybe doesn't, doesn't have a long term future and Audi are going to need a top driver to lead that team. He's a race winner. I think he'd be perfect there. He's got ties there already with his dad.

And this is why it's so difficult because there's not a regulation change for another year. So, and this is the gamble that he essentially goes from a car that can deliver podiums, to go into a car that's barely even going to get a point, but then the year after might even be challenging at the front if Audi are that good. And it's all about engine development, and they've just like a Mercedes, right? Everyone thought Hamilton's move was absolutely ridiculous.

And then he moved. And then there was the regulation change the year afterwards. And I feel like Carlos Sainz might take that gamble to essentially be a team leader, particularly if he's not getting this long-term Ferrari contract like he wants. Interesting. I think that's a whole lot of waffle. I disagree.

I think that there's no need for Carlos Sines to go there and start bedding into a team that is essentially getting taken over anyway by Audi. And if his contract is up, I think Audi would still be interested. And as you say, Carlos Sines has those ties anyway. So I don't feel like he necessarily needs to bed himself into a team that's going to be probably pretty bad over the next couple, or over that next year. Next year, yeah.

To see, I think, you know, I love Ferrari, of course, and I feel as though Carlos does as well, unless for whatever reason this coming year becomes particularly toxic for him, I think he'd just rather have another year at Ferrari and then make that gamble in my opinion. So that's kind of where I went with the whole stay. was that I just feel as though even if he doesn't get that long-term contract,

a short-term one's not bad either. Yeah, and that's what makes it so difficult because it's where the teams, and I said this about four times on this podcast, but that is what is so fascinating that there's that one-year stopgap. So, like, will teams decide, oh, we'll all just stay roughly the same

and then it will go absolutely crazy or do teams start doing it now and then almost they're forced into deciding like that Sebastian Vettel domino effect that we saw. So, yeah, it's going to be fascinating. Yeah, I think with the predictions that I've gone for, I think I've gone for the teams will relatively stay the same apart from some new talents that they'll bring in,

which they'll obviously want to bed in before regulation changes and so on. Of course, young talents you want to get in the car as soon as possible to then assess whether or not they are good enough to be able to lead that team in the future. the more resident members of Formula One, I think obviously I've gone for more of a cautious approach, but Tommy, for the sake of the thumbnail, has gone very, very large.

But what I will say is I always find this, and there's been a lot, with predictions, one, it's a prediction. You're never going to know for a fact, and it's all based on just like, you know. It's not like anyone on this podcast, you know, predicted Nick DeFries to get breached in based by John Ricardo.

when we're like in 2040, like, well, remember, Nick DeVries. Yeah, 100%. I'll be telling my grandkids that. Yeah, but what I always find funny is Formula One can surprise a lot. Like, we, a while back, I saw some people like laughing at our predictions that we made for 2026. And same like, I think Will Buxton made some for 2025, which people are sharing now, that he made like four years ago. And the one thing I'd say to that is like imagine,

imagine even like, so say you make a prediction for like what's going to happen in two years' time. Imagine two years time before the Piastri thing happened, predicting that grid that Alonzo would be at Aston Martin, Oscar Piastri would go to McLaren instead of Alpine, Daniel Ricardo would be dropped. Like, you'd be laughed at.

So you just don't know, like Formula One can't surprise. prize. So yeah, I'm actually really excited. Last year so damn impressive, really, isn't it? It's as well, like, if you were to do like predicting, say, race winners, let's say you went, you were in at the end of 2021 and you went, right, okay, let's look at each race and see who do you think it's going to win? Or maybe at the end of 2020. Who do you think it's going to win? People like, are Hamilton, Hamilton, Hamilton, now, maybe a few botas, you know it. And then you look at the 2022 results and you go,

wow, you know nothing about Formula One, huh? Yeah. The landscape can change so quickly, and that's the beauty of it, and that's what makes when predictions do come right, you feel like the Oracle, Rebel Racing. Yeah, exactly. The sport can change so much, and it just needs that. I mean, my predictions are very similar to that Sebastian Vettel moment where, like, one piece of the domino changes, and then it all, like, has to slot into place.

whereas you've gone for like the more kind of reserved like pairs leaves, someone moves up and then a few young drivers come in. So yeah, it'd be fascinating to see how it all pans out. Absolutely. And I think that pretty much wraps up this predicting the 2024 crazy F1 driver market shenanigans going into 2025. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? my thoughts are anyone watching this video in 2025 can't believe lance roll got dropped by his own dad

absolutely shocking and i can't believe after formula one team saw tom bellingham's formula e drive they were actually like hold on why are they missing a trick no absolutely bin off kimmie antonelli we're going to get tom bellingham in the williams come on let's go and then i'll be doing driver ratings by myself because we were zero so Love it. Well, thank you so much, everybody. Lots of love. Looking forward to Formula One. Not too long to go until we get some car launches and stuff and we can finally get even more excited. And we'll see you very soon for that and lots more exciting things to come. Bye!

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