P1 with Matt and Tommy - Where does Max Verstappen go in 2026?

Episode Date: April 25, 2025

The F1 rumour mill is in overdrive, so we’re diving head first into the massive speculation around Max Verstappen’s future. With 2026 bringing new opportunities and Red Bull needing to up their game, we're answering the question on everyone’s lips: could Max actually walk away?You can listen to an extended version of every Race Review podcast over on our Patreon! Sign up to also get every P1 episode ad-free, early access to live tickets and merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Oh yeah, we're getting into something today which we've not explored for a while. There's been a lot of rumours, a lot of this, that's, maybes and everything else in between. And we thought we'd discuss it because there was obviously quite strong rumours, wasn't there, Tommy, where we genuinely thought, oh my God, Max Verstappen could go to Mercedes last year. Do you remember when that all kicked off? That was crazy. That was crazy and did have some legs.

It wasn't like we don't tend to just jump on random rumours. But once again, obviously the main talking point is about Max and where he will go in 2026 and beyond. And we've essentially got different teams that we're going to talk about that could be a potential. And grade it out of 10 as to how sure or how much of a probability we think it will be that he will end up in that team. Are you ready for it, Tommy? Your favourite, your goat? I think we should do. I know, yeah. It's surprising how the rumours have ramped up again already in the season and probably helped a little bit. They had that really poor race in Bahrain, but then, of course, did better in Saudi, but the rumors have really like ramped up again. So here we are. Now, before we dive into everything, Max, for Stapp, and I'm going to read out a lovely five-star review that made a smile from Itz Ahmed.

making sure to do my chore for the chore gang and leaving a review. Predictions are some of my favourites to listen to. I got a friend in work to start listening to P1 and we've now made a group chat with some of the other work guys where we do the predictions using your format. Thanks to you guys bringing us together. Please keep making us laugh. That is awesome.

I love that, you know, sometimes we're here at our P1 live shows as well, people saying, look, no, no, we've got our own group chat where we've got biggest flop and this is that. It's absolutely awesome. We kind of forget just how far this podcast might go at times and it's awesome to hear these little stories. And also one other thing, I have finished my last training run

before the London Marathon on Sunday. Okay? So my next run will be 42 kilometres or 26.2 miles running for the Great Ormond Street Hospital on Sunday. If you would like to support, donate this incredible charity, there will be a link at the top of the description. We're giving it one last push. I might push it afterwards as well when I can't walk.

But I'm pushing this before the marathon, so please, if you would love to support this amazing charity, then please do. Do it now. Yeah. Listen to Tommy with his force. Do it. Do it. Okay, let's begin with Mercedes. Ooh.

My chance of joining in 2026 is three out of ten. I personally cannot see this happening for a number of reasons. Now, we know that Toto Wolf is essentially in love with Max Verstappen. We've seen that before. There's been open flirting. But that's kind of where it ends. And also Toto more recently said that he doesn't openly flirt when he's happy in his relationship and this. There was a joke about Susie Wolf and whoa, whoa, I don't see this happening.

George Russell is performing incredibly well. Do you really need to shake up the back? boat. I know that he really wants Max Verstappen, but I just cannot see this happening in 2026. Not that it will never happen, there have been rumours to suggest that Rebel have spoken to Russell about a switch. Why would George Russell voluntarily go to that team in Rebel? I don't know. Because another suggested, I don't know if it's a rumor or just speculation, whatever you want to call it, the Mercedes team in 2026 moving forward. You know, with this engine formula, Mercedes Ferrari, they look like they should be the front runners.

George, George will go to Red Bull kicking and screaming, in my opinion. So that's one problem as well. I cannot see it happening, but three out of ten because they're a tiny bit, you know? I have gone for a one out of ten chance of Mercedes. This, I think just to go on the whole Russell thing, I think however much Russell is doing an amazing job and I've said this many times in the podcast. It's been one of the drivers of the year and he's performing incredibly well. I think however much, you know, he's doing a great job.

If Maxa Sapan became available and Mercedes could get him, unfairly, I think almost in the same way like Carlos Sites leaving Ferrari, I think they would make the switch because Mercedes would want a, you know, a high profile star driver after losing a, you know, after losing Lewis Hamilton, of course. And while George is one of the top drives in Formula One, there's more to it there than that. We know how much Toto wants him. But the reason I've gone for a one out of ten is I just can't see this happening now,

particularly next season. I think the way that Toto, after the whole kind of beef between Russell and the Stappan at the end of last. season and the way Toto kind of stood with George and was like saying all this, it kind of like stood with him. Makes me think that I don't see it happening just yet, maybe in the future and maybe those kind of, that side of it's healed a bit, but I just can't see Mercedes at this moment in time. As a Max fan, I would like to see it because without getting into 2026 predictions, I think

Mercedes are going to be light years ahead of Red Bull. Not a lot of the grid. I saw your eyes. But it's Ferrari's here. But no, of Red Bull, which, who I think will struggle next season. But I just can't see this switch happening at this point in time. OK-dokey, we now head to Aston Martin, Tom Bellingham. For Ashton Martin, it's the 6 out of 10.

for Aston Martin. I think this, if he's going to go anywhere, I think it's going to be Aston Martin, you know, if he decides to leave Red Bull. Because not only, you know, do we have Adrian Newey there now? There's also the Honda connection. So they're almost becoming like Red Bull without Christian Horner.

And that's probably quite a good thing. based on the relationship that Max has had and seemingly his father as well have had with Red Bull recently. That being said, there are a lot of, the reason I'm not like hugely backing it is there are a lot of rumours going around about Lawrence paying the big bucks for him

and what will they do with Fernando. I saw some journalists talking to Fernando Alonzo in the press conference and going, so what do you think about having Vastappan as your teammate next year? And I'm thinking, I'm sorry, but if anyone's moving aside, it is not Lance Stroll. And I know there's talk that the Saudi Arabian kind of backing, they might buy a larger share. But there is no way now Lawrence Stroll has paid all this money for Adrian Nui to join the team. he sacks off the kind of project now and leaves his son without a seat.

That's like playing 50 hours of a video game, getting to the final boss and then going, no, I don't fancy it, I'm going to turn it off and never play it again. It's just not that that side isn't going to happen. But alongside Lance next year, I think there'll be strong talks about it. I think you'll definitely have conversations for sure. Interesting. I've gone for a five out of ten for Aston Martin. So similarly to you, I think that if he was to make the switch, it would be to Astonova Mercedes. It is, like you say, Red Bull without Christian Horner and probably a lot more money as well to boot.

Not that Max Rastappen seems particularly money motivated. I think that, remember as well, we're talking about this in 2026. I wholeheartedly believe should he stay at Red Bull, he will then. he will then, you know, stay at Rebel in 2026. Red Bull are not that great. Astor Martin potentially are really good. Mercedes, that's when 27 he can bounce. That's how I see it really unfolding, really,

is that he has the luxury of staying at a team and then picking and choosing, similarly to Lewis Hamilton. He can go wherever he wants. A driver will have to move over. But it's still a five out of ten. depends how the second half of this season goes. Does he, the relationships falter even more?

We'll have to wait and see. But Aster Martin should in theory become pretty good. And I think people know as well. You know, we mentioned about the fact that he could, he could essentially sit there and wait a year and then he knows the kind of pecking order. And while that is true to some extent, I find it fascinating how the teams, and for whatever reason, they'll never know exactly right,

but going into Formula One seasons, the teams, and obviously it's like, you know, talking and rumors and everyone having their own kind of wind tunnel tests and all that kind of stuff, they do have an idea of the pecking order, you know, Maxisor's happened at the start of this year, was basically going, McLaren are going to be so clear, and that has kind of been the case that the start of the season and you know years gone by they've kind of predicted things that are going to happen so they will a bit like Mercedes when they were obviously really good so there will be like intel there and he will he will be able to know even before he goes there and drives the car if Aston Martin is looking like a better prospect than Red Bull and how that that kind of

engine development goes there because I think that's the key thing here yeah I I would say that he would have some kind of insight if you were comparing where he currently is to an Aster Martin. I don't think he will have, or many people will have a clue, especially into 2026, the exact pecking order considering the massive overhaul, the things we're hearing about the engine, cutting out halfway down the straight and all kinds of stuff. So I do feel as though a lot of it is very much a lottery. and perhaps maybe that's why Max would, if Red Bull, you know, say the right things, he might just stay for another year. Because I know we're writing Red Bull off,

but they have invested a huge amount of money to develop their own power train as well. So it's not as if they're going to be, it's not going to be Fred Flintstone and they're going to be just peddling, that is a really old reference, with their feet at the bottom of the car. But, yeah, it's still only a five for me for Aston Martin.

Red Bull! What are the challenge? answers of him staying there in 2026. For me, it is a nine out of ten. He's staying. There's a, there's just so much waffle. Loads of waffle going on in the world of Formula One, but I just can't see him moving in 26. Why would he want to, of course he's having a child as well, why would he want to sort of uproot himself into a new team, have that whole kerfuffle as well as everything else going on in his personal life. I can't see it personally. As I say, and as I said on the Aston Martin point, if Red Bulls say the right things, they show him, look, this power train is not

going to be 30 miles an hour slower than Mercedes down the straight. Look, we promise. Look at this. Then I think he'll stay, especially if the car's reasonably competitive this year, not that it matters too much because of the massive overhaul. I just can't see him changing in 26. However, as I mentioned, 27, I think that's when Max leaves. I've gone for a nine out of ten as well. I do think Red Bull is looking like the more than likely option for next season, not to say that he won't leave at some point in the future, but despite all the issues that they've had and sometimes the car's not been there and his kind of quite, well, I say public. It's public nowadays liking an Instagram post

about how Red Bull treated Lawson and maybe sometimes he can kind of make his feelings known because he's quite an honest, an honest guy about Red Bull and their situation. I think he is loyal to them, particularly Helmut Marco, who's the guy that brought him into Formula One in the first place and took the risk to kind of get him into a Formula One car, which is obviously paid off massively. And there's also other sides to it that it's not just, just the moving and the competitive side of it. You know, he's got his own kind of endurance team now,

like Vastappan racing by Red Bull and all this kind of stuff that I do think that he's kind of loyal to them for now. And it's a very good point what you mentioned as well, the fact that we'll go into this point next about, you know, him obviously having a kid and stuff. but yeah changing at this stage it just doesn't really make too much sense even though I am of the opinion that red ball won't be particularly great next year I'm slightly concerned that's just just a prediction of course we don't know until we get there

don't dominate now aren't they now that you've written them off I know what you're doing I've just seen what you're doing you're trying to put some bad juju in the world I don't I really don't see it in an engine formula max just happened dominance the next 10 years We'll see, we'll see. And finally, the chances of him going on paternity leave or a sabbatical. Zero out of ten. No chance. I saw this rumour kind of appear again.

I think it was Andrew Benson from BBC that kind of brought it forward. I feel like Karun maybe said this last year as well. It's been thrown around a few times. And I think it gets thrown around because Max says the things that he does about his family and how they, you know, mean everything to him and he wants to kind of have that childhood that he never had and also, you know, support his family. And that is the most important thing to him even more than being a champion. And I do genuinely believe that.

But I feel like that stage of his life will come when he decides to, quit and he can do the things he wants to do after Formula One when he's retired, which may be earlier than most do, you know, age-wise. And then he can, you know, spend time with his family or do Le Mans racing with his dad or things like that. But I don't see it happening now, even though, yes, you know, his baby is due this year, I don't see that side to him that he'd kind of throw in the tab when he is at the peak of his kind of performance and his driving ability because although he says records don't matter he still clearly loves Formula One and it's easier said than done to kind of get away from it.

This may surprise you. This is a disagreement coming at now, isn't it? Zero out of ten. Zero out of ten, no chance. This is a rumor that I do not give any kind of credibility to. just I just can't see it happening. He is in the peak condition. He's 27 years old.

He is driving phenomenally. And I'm similarly sort of, I have similar thinking to you in the sense of when he goes, he goes. That'll be it. You know, whether it's when he's 30 years old, 32, whatever, that's when he will put up his racing gloves for Formula One and spend time with his kid. I think as well, you know, a lot of people, look. look at this where he says, I really want to spend time on my family. I mean, he's a very rich man. He can still try and see his kid as much as possible across these years.

I know obviously it takes a lot of his time up, but at the same time, I know he would do everything he can to see his family as much as possible. He's got a private jet. He's got a private jet. Just pop the baby on there. Absolutely fine. I don't know when babies can fly, but not literally. I mean, go on planes.

You probably know more than that, Tommy, considering you have a child. But back to my point, it's not going to happen. And this is where, you know, this will get clipped up where he announces his retirement at the end of the year. And then we will say, well, actually, we said it wasn't going to be a sabbatical not retiring. Yes, I cannot see that one happening. Now we put a poll out for all of you wonderful lot to have your say, with over 77,000 votes and the results are in. In fourth position out of the four that we've suggested.

was Mercedes with 10% of the vote. In third place is Aston Martin with 16%, which means in second place, with 17% people think he's going on a sabbatical. See you later, Max, 26, Charlotte Claire Champion of the World. Thank you very much indeed. And finally, 57% reckon he's going to stay at Red Bull. So that is very interesting reading. a sabbatical over Mercedes.

Yeah, and Aston Martin, people more convinced that he will, yeah, just pack it in altogether or take a break than he would go to another team other than Red Bull at this moment. That being said, though, still... He can't do a Mickahann and Tommy, surely. I know. He's still, it's still, you know, 57% a Red Bull. I know it's the overwhelming vote, but still shows that kind of, it's only just over half of people think he's going to stay in that team. So it's definitely up in the air still. Fascinating stuff. I'm sure you'll be

writing your comments. I'm interested to hear the ones that have said Aston, Mercedes, and also sabbatical. So let us know in the comments. And finally, before we wrap up, we have one last question, which is, will Max stay at Red Bull his whole career or join another team before retirement? And if so, name that team. I do believe he will leave Red Bull, as I have said, consistently throughout this podcast, but it is purely down to performance. If Red Bull come up the blocks in 2026 and they are fast and fighting for wins, then I don't see him leaving one bit. He will only leave if the car is not good enough for him to achieve his goals.

And I firmly believe that. And if Red Bull's bad, then Aston Martin. Yeah, I think if he does go, it will be Aston Martin. as well. I think during the live shows, I said that I think he would stay his whole career. But I do keep changing my mind. I think maybe it's more likely that he will stay his whole career. But I wouldn't count out the move to Aston Martin at some point just because of the Honda and Newey connection that he knows really well.

And just one curveball to throw it into the mix. is Ferrari and I think it's incredibly unlikely but I think I do see Vestappen being the kind of person like a Lewis Hamilton that would love to drive for them I just don't know how that would

happen now with Hamillard he's in Charlott to Saabre I swear to God I'm done what I'd have Vastappan and Hamilton at Ferrari they're just like chaos all the aura points that's what we're going for and I do

think you would really like to do that. However, obviously, Hamilton's gone there now, and I can't see Vastappen and LeClaire's teammates, even though they get on really well. I think that dynamic and their kind of friendship comes from them not being teammates, if you like. I'd be amazing to watch, but I could never see them being teammates. So it would all rely on Charles leaving Ferrari, and that seems incredibly unlikely. does seem like a loyal man that will want to win that title, no matter what it takes, even if that year is 20, 73.

And I can't believe we haven't spoken about Alpine. You know, could he go to Alpine, is it, in a shock move? Flavio. Maybe wants to, you know, team up with Flavio and off he pops to Endstone. And McLaren, of course. I mean McLaren? No, I can't see Macon. Imagine that. Max and Lando as teammates.

Or it would be Oscar. Would Lando then have to go to Red Bull? We've spoken about Lando to Red Bull a few years ago. It's great, isn't it? The driver transfer market just provides a lot of discussion. And I'm sure Max will just do the boring thing and stay at Red Bull after all of this. I hope he doesn't because it would be chaos, wouldn't it, again? And it would also kickstart more chaos because you kind of feel like with Hamilton's move to Ferrari,

that was the kind of driver market craziness that happened. but if Max does move somewhere, it's going to happen all over again and it would just completely shuffle the whole grid again, I think, which would be amazing. And as we've spoken about, it's certainly not out the question. It would be amazing, apart from the really good driver that gets kicked out of a potential top team. And then it wouldn't be amazing for that certain individual,

similar to Carlos Sines from Ferrari. Right, that is it. Tommy, what are the final thoughts, please? Final thoughts are that the more I'm talking about it, the more I do want to see Max drive for a different team just for, just for banter and see him in, just to see what it takes, because I do like to see drivers give it a go in, and something a bit different. Or give it a go. Give it a go. Go on.

Why not? There you look like in a different colour overalls. Max, I'm sure you're not watching this, but Tommy says, give it a go. And that might well be the straw that broke the camel's back. Off he goes. Hasse soon come. There you go. Thank you, everybody.

We'll see very soon. lots of love, take care. Bye-bye. Bye. My chore. Well, you know, start at the podcast saying about a lovely five-star review from It's Ahmed. If you want to share your own wonderful, lovely five-star review, then please do. And we love reading nice things about our podcast and not just how much you disagree with driver ratings. So that would be really nice to read.

Thank you, everybody. Have a lovely day. and remember to cheer for me in the London Marathon on Sunday. Bye! Bye. P1 is a Stack production and part of the A-Cast's Created Network.