P1 with Matt and Tommy - Where will Carlos Sainz go in 2025?

Episode Date: March 28, 2024

He's the only driver to beat Red Bull in 300-odd days of racing - but he'll need a new team next year. So where might he end up? There are more options than you'd think...Tickets for our live shows in April have almost sold out - get yours right here! You can sign up to our Patreon here! You'll get access to exclusive episodes you won't hear anywhere else, every P1 episode ad-free, full driver interview videos, early access to tickets and more!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Somer. If you didn't know or, you know, didn't know what's going on in the intro, we're talking about where Carlos Sines will go in 2025, but we thought it mixed up once again. Tom Bellingham, you are here, we are here, we're in an off week. We're ready to talk about the man of the moment Carlos Sines. And I feel as though our opinions that we might have chefed previously for the 2025 grid might have shifted maybe slightly because we are.

fully going to break down each team that there is a possibility that he will go to and our ratings out of 10. Yes, I think at some point let us know in the comments if you want this as well. We should probably redo our 2025 driver prediction list because Lewis Hamilton absolutely sent that one into a complete mess immediately. And it just shows how crazy this silly season is that my opinion, even though you're not allowed to change your opinion, mine seems to change every week on where I think people are going to go because it's just so chaotic. It's almost as if Formula One is unpredictable when we have a little curveball like Hamilton deciding to wear red next year. So, of course, we are talking about colour signs. But before we get into that, we have a five-star review

from Drok 40 in the USA. I'm still a fairly new fan to F1, having gotten pulled in by watching DTS. I'm constantly looking for more content and had come across this podcast. The hosts are passionate about the sport and have a fun take on things. It feels very casual as you're listening. Another great addition to my podcast line-up. As long as it's at the top of that podcast line up, D-Rock, then I have no problems with that. But thank you so much for the lovely review. If you want your five-star review to be read out potentially in the next podcast, then let us know why you love this podcast on anywhere that you can review. Really appreciate it. It helps us massively. And also, P1 Live Show tickets are still available. One of the venues has sold out, Cambridge.

You still got Bath in London. So if you'd like to come along. then we'd love to see you in a few weeks time, 11th, 12th and 14th of April. Not far away at all now. Okay, let's talk about the main candidates teams that Carlos Sines could go to because he is the hottest property, I believe, in the Formula One space right now. A lot of is he underrated chat from everyone. And, well, the teams, I think, know what Carlos can do. So let's begin with Stakef wanting kicks alba. Salba.

Now, my racing for this has changed slightly, because I was absolutely convinced this man is going to bed his roots into Audi, which obviously Salba are turning into in 2026, and this is where he is going to hope to got that Audi produce a great car in the new regulations joining Formula One. I've given a six out of ten of how likely I think this will happen. it's gone down a lot. I'm not saying it with my chest anymore. I'm sort of whispering it, if anything, because mainly because I just, I don't want him to go, at least for next year. But 2026, I think it still could happen. And I think if we were grading that, it would be higher. But I think in this interim

year, there are better options out there, much better options. So, yeah, it just depends if those other big options open a seat up for him, because they also have either drivers in contract or potentially other drivers in the wings. So for Salba, I've gone for a 7 out of 10. So not that much higher. I'm not as convinced, weirdly, I'm not as convinced as I was that he'd go to Audi as I was before he'd even lost his Ferrari drive. because when we did the 2026 grid

God, was that like a year ago, half a year ago? I put science in Audi and thinking that he'd leave Ferrari. But the fascinating thing here is, and I think this is why my opinion keeps changing and I don't know what's best, and I'm sure this is going through every driver's head as well. And Carlos's.

And Carlos's, yeah. So many things around. out of, so many drivers are out of option for next year, but then there's an entire regulation change. And that is what makes it such a bizarre thing, because if he'd lost his seat now, I would probably say, Audi, yeah, it's worth a punt. But the way steak have gone this year, they're not going to be any good next year, like no chance. And they're also floundering in pit stops and things like that. And it would just be like, well, do I want the kind of embarrassment of a year of being

16th every single race, hoping that Audi are any good when there might be other options that are the bigger, bigger teams that you know are good and it's less of a risk. So that's why my opinion sort of changed a little bit. I'm not as confident that he'll go to Audi. and that kind of bodes a question but it's probably for another podcast is who does take that risk when there's a gap

of essentially being in an awful team that could get better in a year's time but we don't know. We don't know. And I think it is partly because Carlos is doing very well but also as you say, looking at stake for the first three races of this season, Carlos is not going to be looking at that going,

oh, I fancy a bit of that. If, for example, Bottas was making Q3 fighting on the outer edges of the points perhaps and showing some kind of promise there might be a thought in his mind of bedding himself in the team. But he's much better than that. We know that. We can see that.

And yeah, I just, I think teams would be very silly to snap up on, or to not snap up at Carlos Sines for next year. And forget bedding your roots in. It's fine. He knows how to drive a car. He don't need to bed his roots in a team that's clearly in a bit of a shambles at the moment.

If anything, steer clear, let Audi take over and then go and have a little look. If you look at Lewis Hamilton as an example that in 2013 he moved from McLaren to Mercedes and it was this big like, oh my God, why has he left McLaren to go to Mercedes? Mercedes were like fourth or fifth best team and McLaren were like the second best team. this is literally going from yeah, the right at the top. The fastest team on the grid, Ferrari.

Ferrari, yeah, clearly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. One of the best teams. To a team that haven't scored a point yet and going to be at the bottom. So it's not... That Hamilton, imagine the shock that that Hamilton decision created

of like, oh, why is he done that? This is even more extreme because you are taking such a risk. And Hamilton could afford to take that risk somewhat. Obviously, he believed. to that Mercedes would get better for the engine change and would be a lot better. But even if they weren't,

at least it's more of a sideways step, kind of like what he's doing now with Ferrari. But to go that far down the grid and hope they're suddenly just going to like a light switch in 2026 be Audi and are we're going to win and be amazing. Here's a risk, massive risk. Do you just say that Mercedes to Ferrari is a sideways step? Well, you've got one two last.

Based on when he... No, no, no, no, you're only as good as your last race, mate. When Hamilton made the decision, it was a sideways step, because they were a light check, and it weren't they? That's very true. I just wanted to get some delusion in there. Sorry. Okay, let's move to Mercedes next.

And I'm going to lock in a whopping nine out of ten. I think Toto Wolf would be a very silly man to think of anyone other than Carlos signs to slot into that gap for a year. I believe that there was, of course, Fernando Alonzo's of this. world that I still also believe is in the running. But Mercedes are showing nothing currently to perhaps even entice Fernando Alonzo, at least at the start of this year. I'm sure as it progresses, if Mercedes starts to do better, whatever. But this isn't an Alonzo podcast. It's a Carlos Seine's dedicated podcast. And yeah, originally I was thinking, no, what's the point in going

into Mercedes for a year and then moving team somewhere else because they've put all their eggs into Kimmy Antonelli's basket and they really want this young and up-and-coming star. But Carlos Sines is probably the kind of driver you need to slot into that Mercedes seat next year. If you put Kimmy Antonelli in there, it is one of the biggest roles of the dice since Max Verstappen in Atoroso. And obviously that paid dividends eventually. Didn't really at the start with the amount of happy crashes that he had. I just feel as though Mercedes need to get a strong signing.

If Carlos is the biggest talking point this year and he continues to do well, then it makes sense, in my opinion. So it also depends on whether Carlos is happy to go for a year and then look elsewhere. Because it's very clear that George Russell was going to stay there. There's one seat, probably Kimmy's, so Carlos is going to have to think what after Mercedes, or where after Mercedes am I going to go? That's how I see it.

But Carlos needs to be in a good car next year. And I think that Mercedes would be a good shout. Well, this is where the disagreement people will absolutely adore this podcast. Finally, finally. Come on, give it to me. I've gone for a three out of ten for his name. Oh, that is glorious. That is the most we've ever disagreed by a country mile.

We've been doing this podcast for a. a year and I think genuinely that might be the final time like the most we've ever disagreed. Love it. Ever? I mean before that I think it was one or two points and we've just hit a six here. Should I just come round your house and we should

just you know wrestle or something? I've done such a Twitch comment that I was just not expected. Yeah, I thought I'd breed in a podcast. Sorry, carry on. Why not? Yes, gone for a three out of ten and that is because well I personally

think that Carlos Sainz is too short term. I think it'd be an incredibly good short term, but I actually thinking of the, if there was no future and Formula One ended after 2025, I think the best option is Carlos Sites and George Russell and Mercedes. I think that is actually a really solid good lineup, would be great for Mercedes. But like you say, I do, there are obviously mentioning Kimi Antonelian a lot.

It's very early stages. However, it's quite clear that Toto doesn't want to lose him like he did with Max Verstappen. And the reason for me giving a three is because if Carlos Sites went there, it seems like it would be his seat for three or four years. Like he's got age on his side, whereas as if Fernando Alonso went there, he's going to be there one year, maybe two. I know we joke that he's going to go forever but you know

Carlos Sites could in theory have age on his side and stay for another 10 years and then Kimi Antonelli doesn't have a seat George Russell you've got two drivers with youth on their side that can go for a very long time and then they have that same problem they did with Max where they've got no seats

to put him in of course there's no guarantee that Antonelli will be amazing based on Formula 2 so far I think he's shown signs that he's got like something about him that you can see why teams are interested in him but yeah that that's the reason for it that he would he's too much of a quick fix and I think he's a incredibly good quick fix for them but it also like creates that problem that toto said that he had in the

past yeah it depends I suppose what Carlos would be happy with as well on it on his side as I mentioned, and if there is a one year on the table, and that's the only thing that's really available to him as a good option in a good car, I think he takes it. Also, if that is an option, Carlos Isis must be like, look, I'm the only guy other than Max that's won a race in the last 300 days. I've been fired by Ferrari, and I'm getting a one-year deal

everywhere else, like, what do I have to do here? Exactly. Poor guy. But it's all about timing, as we say, so many times in Formula One, isn't it? It's all about where you slot in, in history. Okay, let's move on to Red Bull. Give us your number, Tommy.

Go on. Hit me with it. I'm going for an eight out of ten for Red Bull. I'm on the Carlos Sites-Max-Restappen reunion now. Yeah, I can see it happening. I think the relationship that Carlos Sites has had with Red Bull in the past, based on the news recently and things that have gone on at Red Bull to me it seems quite clear that Christian Horner has a lot of power there

and more power than someone like Helmut Marco that traditionally in the past has been the one that's been in charge of who goes there and who promotes drivers you know they've always been that team where they promote a young driver but last time, Christine Horner's decision was to promote Sergio Perez and someone outside the stable and now I feel like it could happen again.

And it's an 8 out of 10. Obviously, of course, it all relies on Sergio Perez and how he goes about it. But Red Bull are a brutal team, I guess. And the more I think about it, the more I could just see that Red Bull, link working again. Wow. Okay. Here we go. Disagreement number two. I've gone for a four out of ten for Red Bull,

mainly because Sergio has had a very good start to the year. If we look at Australia, I am taking into account that there was some damage on his car. We look at the two races before that, and he was, we both commended in a good position and did exactly what Red Bull would want for him to do as a number two driver. If he does that throughout this year, I don't think Red Bull shakes everything up even more. They've got so much instability in the team at the moment. I think moving that second driver around as well, if Perez is doing enough for the next year as well, where you'd assume the Red Bull is going to be quickest again and they don't really want to unsettle Max. It's such an interesting topic purely because of the amount of moving parts that could happen.

Of course, there's lots in the news about Max Verstappen leaving Red Bulls. then probably Carlos will go. But if we're just talking about Max staying here and then that second seat, and as you say to me, it is all about how Perez performs. And I think that Perez will perform enough. Judging from last year and what he did, and Red Bull were like, yeah, yeah, you can stay for another year. I think he will have a better overall year this year than last year.

And therefore they keep him for 2025 and then big changes maybe start to happen for 26. and the new regs. I do think you'll have a better year than last year. One thing I will throw into the mix as well. And yeah, Sergio Perez, obviously, being older than Carlos Sainz, that is another thing that maybe might sway Red Bull, that you're going to get more time out of Carlos Sites. And he is a good option if Max, for whatever reason,

did decide to either leave or. or just be like, no, I'm sick of the calendar being 600 races a year and I want to play eye racing instead and be with family or whatever. So I think that is an option, another reason that could go against Perez, that he's somehow younger than me, but he's 34 years old. And yeah, he's not got a huge amount of time left, although based on Flandaulanzo, that's 10 years. but not everyone's Fernando Lanzi.

No, not everyone is Fernando. And also, you know, the fact that you are older than Sergio Perez, honestly, how have we not been sponsored by Nivier or something yet? It's crazy. Okay, we move on now to Aston Martin. Give us your grade, Tommy. I'll go for a two out of ten. I think it's just, just the fact that in case Fernando Alonzo decides to retire,

I don't think it's complete. Yeah? Yeah, you might want to up that up. Oh, no. Actually, the more I think about it, the more, maybe a four. Just because of Martin. Just pick a number, please. Okay, no, I've changed.

No, I've changed your four. And it's actually going up and up the more I think about it, because if Fernando Lonson retires, he will, yeah, he goes to Merck, retires, whatever. You think Alonzo's going to retire at the end of the year? He's talking about it, isn't he? No, that's like, wearing a part. his options. I hope not. He's teasing us all.

Yeah, he probably is. But if Fernando Alonso moves on, then Aston Martin, he's the perfect driver actually, at Aston Martin to put in a top driver. 11 out of 10. No, it's still a 4 because it relies on Flanda Lonto leaving. But if that does happen, you could see it happening because essentially like he would be a good person

to compare alongside Lance Stroll. They're going to have a works engine, aren't they, with Honda, 2026. So, yeah, could be a good option. Lovely stuff. I also changed my mind aggressively when I realized that in the sheet, because I had one as well and then went, hold on. If Fernando leaves or goes to Merck, then that's the seat for Carlos. So I've gone for a five out of ten due to that reasoning.

I don't think for a second that Fernando will retire. I think that he'll be having his eyes set on that Merck seat. And again, it's about the moving parts. It's not whether Carlos would go to Aston. It's whether there's actually going to be a seat available. We know Lance is going to be there. I don't think that's unless he gets bored eventually and decides, you know what, can't be bothered anymore, which is fair enough.

But I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. So it all depends on Fernando. But, you know, Merck, Merck to find. Fernando we've spoken about it before. Fernando to Merck even. Not Merck to, I mean, Merk would have to come to Fernando.

I reckon that's how the negotiations happen. And there's also talk of Alonzo to Red Bull now as well that's ramping up. It's just every driver is to every team pretty much at the top now. Let's just get into a little bit of a fantasy land right now. Fernando Alonzo goes to Red Bull. What happens to you? I would absolutely love that Alonzo would. maybe get a couple of wins during the year.

But I don't think Alonso would beat Max in the Red Bull. The age is if you put them in their primes together, it's a different story. But I think Alonzo would do an incredible job. I'd back him to do an amazing job better than Perez is doing. I think he'd say the Australian Grand Prix, for example, he'd be there winning the race, in my opinion, when Max is off the road.

but wow, it would be something to behold. I just want to see Alonso get that win. I know we're talking about Colos Sines. I just want to see Alonzo win a race before he goes again. It's amazing the fanboys and coming out here. We're talking about, to be fair, Carlos, even his idol is Fernando as well. So, yes.

I mean, that would save Formula One. We could have a Max Verstapp and winning by a lap every single race this year. I would allow it if Fernando Alonzo was going to Red Bull in 2025. What storylines we would have. then and an F1 would be saved. Tommy, I think you have the result of our poll ready to share with everyone. And before you do that, I feel like we've missed one thing,

which I've seen a few people mutter, which is, no, which is, will he have a year out? Yeah, an option, I guess. And my grade for that is zero. Oh, yeah, zero. Zero. We're both just lock in a zero there. He's got so much, I mean, we just saw it with the surgery.

He loves Formula One more than life itself. he knows what it's like to be. It's all about musical chairs, right? But you have to be in the game in order to have the best chance of getting one of those chairs. So, yeah, for me, is there? Yeah, 100%. You don't do what he did with his road to recovery to get back in that car and win the race to be like, no, no, I could take a year out.

He's not in that kind of Danny Rick stage of his career after McLaren where he needed that reset or whatever. he's driving arguably I think Carlos is actually getting better and better he's driving better than he ever has and yeah I think if he did take a year out or didn't have a seat I think Formula One might as well liquidate because it's a massive problem

if he can't get a seat and this whole sport is broken Wow wow we and also I feel as though another team we should have included in this because there's been so much ridiculous chatter about it. Ferrari. Are they regretting signing Lewis Hamilton and they're going to tear up his contract and be like, no, Carlos, come back. We've made a mistake. I'm sorry. Zero. Yeah, imagine they're like, just kidding, Lewis. This is for all the championships you took from us when you were dominating and we just left you without a drive. That would be one way of

getting a serious lawsuit going on there. But, yeah, yeah. Yes, I do find that very interesting that people are genuinely thinking that Ferrari are regretting, signing Lewis Hamilton. It is absolutely bonkers. Right, Tommy, share the poll with us. The poll, as it stands. But you definitely forgot you were looking up and there it is. No, I've got it here. Okay, so we've had 13,000 votes.

And someone else, so other than Mercedes, Saaba and Red Bull is 6%, 8% for Saaba, 25% for Mercedes and 61% for Red Bull. Wow, didn't even include Austin Martin in that poll then. Well, you could only have four options and I was like someone else, which shows that a lot of people... So the top one was Mercedes, sorry, is that?

No, top one was Red Bull, 61% for Red Bull. Oh, wow. 25% Mercedes, 8% Salbo, which is very low. That is very low. I think if you'd have asked that before the season and said Salba. I think that's probably looking at more like 30, 40%, but it shows that if you're having six day long pit stops

and just floundering at the back, it's not looking good for them. Absolutely. And that pretty much sums up that podcast on Carlos Sines and where he might go. Let us know on social media or in the YouTube comments, wherever you might be,

where you think he's going to go and your reasons why. We'd love to hear them. Tommy, what are your final thoughts? My final thoughts are thank you for basically listening to 25 minutes of me and Matt pointless chat to discover that colour science is actually going to Austin Martin

and it makes perfect sense and Carla Science for us and Martin, here we go. Wow, amazing, hell. You've tensed your opinion on the internet, Tommy. That is wild. Not allowed. That is it. Thank you, everybody. Lots of love. See you soon.

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