P1 with Matt and Tommy - Which drivers will lose their race seat this season?

Episode Date: June 23, 2023

Eight races in, a few drivers' seats are at risk - we've highlighted four of them. But which of them will lose their seat? Let's find out!Follow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok.***Please take the time to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your pods. It means a great deal to the show and will make it easier for other potential listeners to find us. Thanks!*** Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P-1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Tommy's giving it a wave, even though you can't see it. You felt it in your ears. Did you know audio wonderful people there that are consuming this podcast right now? Tommy, we are going to be talking about drivers under pressure. We sure are. And there's quite a few of them. Four of the 20 drivers we've picked out here.

And that's quite a big percentage of the grid. and they're, you know, meant to be the best in the world. And four, I'd say, have had not the best seasons, to say the least. Yeah, so we're about a third of the way through the season, and 20% of the grid is what we're going to be talking about today, four of them that we particularly think are washed, which, for those of you that don't know, washed is actually bad in this sense.

So let's see if, firstly, we think whether or not they're going to get binned off. And we'll also rate it out of 10, won't we, Tommy, about how likely it will be, One being, nah, no chance. 10 being, see you later, mate. We love a 1 to 10 grade. F1 to 10. It's easy to digest content.

Now, before we get into it, let's share a five-star review. This one comes in from Travel Guy 36 from the USA. If you want yours read out, please leave us a review. Let us know why. Give us that big fat five stars. It really does help us a lot if you do enjoy this podcast. So this one comes in from Travel Guy 36. Around 6,000 years ago,

humanity invented the wheel. And for the overwhelming majority of the time since, this was largely seen as a marvellous idea. Matt and Tommy have brought this unchallenged reputation, its first hurdle. Are the sermons of these two British gents worth the millennia of progress as a result of this rotund innovation? The answer is, of course, yes,

and I wouldn't rather get my wheel knowledge from anywhere else. I had no idea where that was going. I don't know if he was saying we were reinventing the wheel, but no, it was about wheel knowledge. That's the greatest review in terms of creativity I think I've ever seen. I love it. I had to throw that one in there. That was great.

Thank you. Thank you so much, Travel Guy 36. That was brilliant. Keep your reviews coming in. We love to see it. Now, we asked you on social media, which driver is at most at risk of losing their seat in 2023, and we're going to go through your suggestions and comments. So the first one, Lance Stroll.

So this comes in from O'Quilt and they say, yes, very unlikely considering his dad's role. However, looking at it on paper, Stroll is really holding Aston Martin back this year when you compare what Alonzo is able to get out of the car. And another one from at you better legate. In a fair world, it would be Lance Strull. But the race pace and qualifying gap to Alonzo is just unacceptable. but we all know that's not going to happen. So, Lancy Pooh, is he at risk? I've given this a three out of ten in terms of likelihood.

One being no chance, 10 being 100% going to happen. There is a small chance that Laurenstrel wakes up one day and goes, maybe this ain't worth it. Maybe my son's success is not going to happen here, but I can still be successful as the father. But the majority of me thinks, The only reason he's in Formula One is to live vicariously through Lance Stroll. So that's why I've given it a three.

Because I don't think it's completely impossible, but very unlikely. Yeah, my answer is going to change based on like the question is during the season. So if we're saying during the season, I'm going to give it a one because I don't think he's going to lose a seat. I don't think there's any chance he's going to lose this season. I think the question's going to be later on, maybe, you know, that could happen. because, you know, we're hearing a lot of, I've seen a lot of people recently talk about, you know, Lawrence is a businessman and, you know, there's a lot of people investing in Aster Martin and he owns Aster Martin now and they need success. And I think at the moment, I think Lance is fine because correct me if I'm wrong, but there's not particularly anyone waiting in the wings at that Aster Martin seat.

You're not, it's not like a Perra's where, you know, they've got Daniel Ricardo on the sidelines and everyone's like, oh, oh, Daniel Ricardo. So if Lance Stroll is out, you know, it's Felipe Drogovich with the greatest of respect, you know, one F2, good driver. But he's not like an elite driver that's jumping into that seat alongside Alonzo and going to score loads more points. So how do you know? Well, just, you know, if you listen to Felipe, I back you. I back you, I back you, man. Well, I think you do. I think you'd do well, but I'm not talking about like. What did you do better than Lance? He may well do. The way Lance is driving at the moment.

you never know. But I think when it comes to the end of the season, I mean, at the moment, Lance is what, 80 points off Alonzo, I think, or something ridiculous. You know, comes to the end of the season, Lance is 150, 200 points behind Fernando Alonzo. Then the pressure really ramps up. Because say we get to the end of the season as well,

and these Aston Martin upgrades that they're hyping up, you know, Red Bull, maybe, you know, they've got four deadbirds in their car every race and Aston Martin have caught up, they're going to go into that new season with a genuine chance and Lance could cost them the constructors title. And that's when Lawrence has to make that really big decision of, you know, of course I want my son to be in Formula One and be successful,

but he's holding back my business and that team. And, you know, there's going to be sponsors, investors, everything, putting pressure on that because Lance could end up costing them. So the reason I went for three rather than one, because you said, no chance, you don't become a billionaire without being ruthless. And I think even, even his own son, if it is holding him back from success, there will be a thought in his brain that goes, well, how do I rectify this? I've got Fernando Alonso firing on all cylinders, perhaps even more cylinders that's allowed in Formula One and they're actually going to get disqualified at the end of the season. Who knows? There is a genuine chance. This is just a glory run. but wait and see how the cost cap tops it all up at the end.

But, yeah, I just think that there is that small inkling where maybe Lawrence just snaps and goes, nope, Fernando Alonzo is now my son. I have adopted him and we will get a different driver in. You predicted Charles Leclerc goes to Aston Martin at 2026. I think that could happen now. Maybe that happens sooner. Who knows? I could see Charles being in a couple of years.

If Ferrari keep going the way they are, Lance carries on, you know, he did. Apparently, Charles followed Austin Martin on. social media, which as we know from F1 Twitter, that means 100% confirmed that he's going there. Sarcasm. But look, I think when they get that car, that Aston Martin, for me, are the biggest team that are like really making leaps forward. And there will be one stage, hopefully, where they are challenging for a title wins and they can't have someone holding them back, even if it is the owner's son.

So, look, it's a difficult one, but I'll pose a question to you. Do you think Lawrence has underestimated? Absolutely. I mean, that would be good, wouldn't it? We'd love to see that. Would he do better than Lance did in Monaco, maybe? But do you think Lawrence may be underestimated just how good Fernando Alonzo is? Because he put world champions, you know, I think Lance did all right against Vettel.

Maybe Vettel was winding down his career. he knew who's going to retire. Yes, I know Vaila fans will jump on that sometimes he didn't have the best strategy and all this kind of stuff. But Alonzo is absolutely wiping the floor with him. So you can't really argue that, you know, they're sabotaging Alonzo or anything like that. He's absolutely annihilating him. And I don't know if Lawrence thought, you know, Lance can learn from this amazing driver.

If he is on par with Vando Alonzo, everyone's going to think he's the absolute amazing, like Lance is amazing and the opposite's happened where it could, you know, we're discussing the fact that he's getting replaced, which has that backfired massively signing Fernando Alonso for him.

I don't think so. I think at the end of the day, Lance has a seat. He's at the table. He's not particularly eating at the moment this season compared to Fernando. But at the same time, Lawrence still wants to be successful.

So, you know, there is, I'm sure, partly an ego there. and as I say, you don't become a billionaire without being ruthless and having an ego and so on and so forth. So I think it's more a case of Lance. Try and swim if you can against Fernando Alonzo. You're probably not going to lose your seat anyway, mate, but try and do the stroll family name justice. And it worked with Vettel, as you say. It was reasonably comparable.

But yeah, Fernando maybe was the step too far if we're talking about Lance not getting washed. But yeah, I think it's going to be. to be interesting to see how it unfolds. Does he start to get a little bit annoyed when Lance makes more mistakes over the course of the year or does Lance start to pick up again? Spain was hopefully not an anomaly for him in terms of a performance. So we shall see, won't we, Tommy? We will.

It's going to be fascinating end of the year if Alonzo, and he could well do, does beat him by 200 points, then this conversation will ramp up, you know, even more. and look, it's going to, it would take, we said it would take some kind of miracle for Lance to lose his seat and that miracle might well be Fernando Alonso. Okay, let's move on now to our next driver, Nick DeVries. So a suggestion at CritRTV and they said, DeVries is the correct answer here. A decorated and seasoned open wheel driver not at all performing. I could see Nick out, Daniel Inn happening. Hello, someone predicted that at the start of the year.

Come on, Chris, let's go. Also, it's Red Bull. It's what they do. This is coming from an RBR fan. And another suggestion at one tweet for mankind. Probably Nick DeVries. They brought him on because they were losing Gasly and they didn't have a junior driver they were crazy about

to see if he might have some crazy unseen potential. He's not doing well and there are Red Bull juniors waiting. Tommy, go with your rating first. I will say an 8 out of 10 for this happening, mainly because of all the drivers, this one seems the most likely that are people, like the person said beforehand, waiting in the wings. There's so many reasons why I think DeVries could lose his seat,

not just because he's not driving particularly well, but the person in charge of all these drivers, in the Red Bull stable is Helmut Marco. And Helmut Marco has maybe been a little less ruthless than he used to be. Look what happened with Sonoda. They kind of backed him a bit more than they normally would. And now he's now performing quite well. But Nick DeVries didn't come from the Red Bull Junior program.

And I do wonder if there's part of Helmut Marco that's like, you know what? This just shows that actually my decision is the best decision and we should hire Red Bull Juniors. because this guy's not doing very well. And now there are Rebel Juniors doing well and waiting in the wings. I think Helmut Marco will probably step in if DeVries maybe crashes another two or three times, maybe summer break. We've seen it before.

I'm going to give it a nine out of ten in terms of possibility of Nick DeVries losing his seat this season. If he continues on the way that, you know, on the path that he is right now, there's no reason to keep him on. he had to at least be on the same level as Sonoda, if not better, for him to keep a seat, in my opinion. He's very much going against the tide, as you say. He's not from the Red Bull Academy. They've got Juniors waiting.

They've got Liam Lawson, who is obviously doing incredibly well in pretty much everything that he's driving at the moment. And it's just one of those where there's so much pressure on Nick DeVries, he had to genuinely take all of that on. after everyone's expectations were quite high after that Williams performance at Monza. I don't think it really has turned out the way that some people were expecting. I think we were a little bit more, well, I was a lot more cautious about that. You were like, hey, he's going to beat Sonoda this, Susan, mate. That's not clearly working out for him at the moment. But yeah, the Red Bull program has always been very much, if you're not performing, you're out,

apart from as you say Sonoda, but I feel as though the Honda deal very much helped him stay in that. seat for maybe longer than perhaps Red Bull would have had him for and it's worked out beautifully for Yuki. I don't see it happening for DeVries. I don't think they'll have that patience. So that's why it's a nine. Although I don't think it'll be Daniel Ricardo that comes in for him. As much as I'd love to see it, realistically, it will probably be Liam Lawson, in my opinion. Or Yuma Ouasa is obviously doing very well in Formula 2 as well. So yeah, it's, DeVries is going to have to start beating Sonoda almost immediately, I'd say, because it's not as if they wait till the end of the season,

then make the decision. It'll be middle of the season, cut off time. Sorry, mate, you've not performed. Because they want to get everything in place, don't they? Yeah, they've done it before mid-season. They've done some very savage mid-season driver swaps before. And, you know, Red Bull are brutal, but you've got to think that if DeVries carries on the way he is,

this one would be justified. because if I'm a Red Bull Junior driver, particularly Lawson, who's performing extremely well, winning in other things, you'd be like, well, why have they got this guy and he's not even,

you know, part of the Red Bull junior team and he's not even performing very well. So I can understand, you know, the frustration from there. I think it'll be Lawson as well, if they do. For me, Daniel Ricardo, he said that he'd go to Alfa Tauri now

just so he could make that step up to Red Bull again. I don't know. I just can't, I still can't see it happening, like, from that side. Give him a race. Give him one race. Just, just for our own satisfaction. And then he gets smashed by Sonoda and we're like, oh, God, okay.

Yeah, imagine. And then I think Owasa, a bit like what you said with Yuki, now the Honda deal is winding down. They're probably not going to be as, you know, he's performing well. but like I think if they were if red bull was still with Honda for another five six seven years then Iwasa would be a really good choice because they do take that into consideration but um I think Lawson is is the most likely likely person and you could see it when we get into that summer break because look if DeVries isn't being snowed at any time soon

then what savage but what is he offering Like, he's not got a lot of, he's a bit older than a lot of juniors as well. So you could kind of argue that, you know, it's not even like he's a 19 year old that, you know, give him a chance like they did with Max and other drivers. So, yeah, it doesn't make sense to keep him. And another thing I'd argue as well is that because it's Al-Fa-Tauri, we're not talking about an album losing his seat at Red Bull or things like that. And because Al-Fatari are pretty washed this season in terms of performances, they haven't got any. really to lose? If they're genuinely going,

ah, you know, DeVries is going to be out this season. It's not been, you know, where we expected him to be. Why, not just at the end of the season,

but why would they not maybe entertain that during the summer break and go, look, let's give Lawson a run out earlier, see what he can do. Maybe he'll have a few crashes along the way, but they can at least assess the potential, but,

you know, compare DeVries and Lawson even. These are things that they, with having a second team, they have that flexibility to be able to, to do these kinds of things. Obviously, there are contractual obligations and things that perhaps Red Bull

would have to sever and compensate for if they do get rid of DeVries. But look, they're winning in the Red Bull team. They've got a lot of cash. I'm sure that's something they could entertain if they wanted. Let's now move to our next driver, unfortunately, who is under pressure in our eyes. And it's Logan Sargent.

This comes in from at Trevor underscore SP22. Unpopular opinion, but Logan Sargent, not sure how unpopular that is. Despite being a rookie, he struggled tremendously and Albin has destroyed him. I love that he's American, but he just can't get a grip on the car. So I have gone for a five out of ten for Logan Sargent. I'm sort of middle of the road, obviously not sort of done any kind of performances that make you sit up and take note. Albin, as Trevor says here, has destroyed Logan. And to be honest, some of it you could say is expected with Logan.

It's his rookie season and so on. But there have been rookies in the past that have done a lot better. And you have gone, okay, all right. I mean, I would argue even Piastri, I've sort of sat up a little bit. Not fully. I'm not fully, I was about to say a word that would definitely be. I'm not fully slouched, but not the other way as well. You're in the middle of the

FIFA sitting up. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not fully sitting up and, you know, really, you know, anyway, you know what I'm saying. But yeah, back to Logan, he has that American tie, which I think we kind of played down a little bit. Oh, you know, if he's not winning, then who cares? It doesn't really matter if, you know, you've got an American driver at the back of the grid. But I still feel like there is something to be gained from that. But again, it kind of comes back to.

Is there anyone really waiting in the wings? You've obviously got a few drivers that perhaps will take that step down to come back to Formula One, Daniel Ricardo. You never know how desperate he might be to go back, get back into Formula One. And then Mick Schumacher as well, let's not forget that, who has perhaps Toto Wolf is trying to get him back into that William's seat. And of course, there is a Mercedes tie as well. Tommy, your phone's gone off.

So that is now a rule of letting us all know what that ding was and give us full information about it. It's my mum saying her plane is delayed 20 minutes because she's coming to visit. Oh, she's coming on the pod, yeah? Why not? Yeah, cool. Sounds good. Perfect. All right. Well, let her know to hurry up because we're nearly done. But yes, Logan Sargent. What do you think, Tommy?

I'm going to go for a 7 out of 10 then for Logie Saage. I think at the end of the season he's going to be under a lot of pressure if he's not, you know, still not performing against Albon. Of course, he doesn't have the upgrades yet. But even when he was on a level playing field, you can argue, you know, he's still a rookie and Alburn's got a bit more experience. But, you know, I expected a bit more from him. He should be a lot closer to Alex Alburn. Alex Alburn's having a great season.

He's a brilliant driver. But is he like, is he like, you know, he's not Fernando Alonzo, is he with the greatest respect to Alex Albin? No, and also I just want to quickly He said that you expected more from him this season I just want to go back to our predictions for this year And what did you label that he would be? A P20 merchant Technically he hasn't finished P20 every time

So he has exceeded your expectations from the predictions video Thanks to the DNFs But no, I mean, I say he's like I expected more from him Obviously, you know, against album To be fair, I thought the Williams was going to be the worst car by a mile. And Albin's shown that that's not the case. So the differential between the two drivers you thought was going to be a bit closer. Yeah, because I think I may have even put Albin like 19th.

I can't remember in the championship. I think it was 18th maybe. I think you were a bit, you're generous. I was generous. Yeah. So look, I think Logan, yeah, needs to step up his game. And a little disagreement I will say is that I think you mentioned about the whole American thing. maybe I've not paid enough attention

but I don't think there's been a lot of hype around him other than maybe just banter memes about what the F is a kilometer and all that kind of stuff and an eagle emojis and all that kind of stuff but in terms of actual you know seeing him at a race and oh there's loads of more American fans now because there's American driver I don't really see it and I'd argue that I actually don't really know

anything about Logan Sargent like you know we see drivers come in and immediately they're, you know, chatty and you learn loads about them and they're like, oh, cool, who's this guy? Blah, blah, blah, blah. Logan's just gone a bit under the radar. And maybe that is because he's finishing 16th and 17th. So there's not a lot to talk about. But, yeah, there's not been that much hype around the fact that, you know, we've got an American on the grid again, in my opinion.

Yeah, that's true. I think it's more from a Williams perspective, perhaps. I just see it from sponsors and things like that. The American market, they might want to back an American driver, even if they aren't doing that well. There is obviously that tie and so on and so forth. But yeah, it's not been, I don't know anything about Logan Sargent really either. He has, as you say, been very quiet on that.

He is American. Yeah, I mean, perhaps it was his choice. Maybe he doesn't want to shout about himself just yet and wants to do the talking on the track. Okay, we now go to our final driver. Sergio Perez. So this comes from at SSRae. Perez, to clarify,

I don't think he's the worst, but Rebel are not known for being easy on underperforming drivers and his last three races have been terrible. What do you rate it, Tommy? End of the year, I'd say maybe a three or four. I'm going to go for a three out of ten. I think this all depends on how good that Rebel is

at the end of the season, because we said there's so many times when we're talking about it that, you know, if that Red Bull is absolutely clear of the field, then Perez doesn't really matter. You know, he's going to finish second or third in the title. You can argue if he finishes third. It's a, he's underperformed. But then they'll still win the Constructors title because of Max and then him, you know, and Sergio getting a decent amount of points, if not spectacular.

So if Aston Martin catch up, Mercedes, Ferrari, You know, you never know. If they do catch up, then Perez is under pressure because he could be costing them the title. Max needs a rear gunner. Because I don't want to sit here and say that Perez has been, you know, worse than what Gassley and Albin did. But I think if he carries on the way he is, you've got to think, you know, you've got to put into perspective that when Albin and Gassley were in that Red Bull against Max, Max was finishing third. And then when they were, you know, in the race,

they were finishing 11th, 8th, 12th, whatever, because the midfield was really close. Whereas now Paris has a bad race and it's like fifth, six, because the car is so good. So I think this- It's not good enough though to secure P2s and three is like botasted. Well, exactly. So that's why I think he'd be under pressure if people catch up.

If not, he's a kind of safe pair of hands. that's not challenging Max and it's just going to help Max walk to the title every year if they're that good. Absolutely. I'm going to go with a one. I am categorically confident

that Sergio Perez will be at Red Bull next year. They are, in my opinion, still streaks ahead, at least using Max Verstappen as your front gunner. I just don't see it. I'm really closing up the gap. I still think Max Verstappen

has a little bit in the locker compared to the other teams around him. And I also wonder who Red Bull would actually put in that seat. When you actually look at all the second drivers that have come into that Red Bull team, Daniel Ricardo is probably the last person to have really actually extracted something from that Red Bull. So why would Red Bull risk putting another driver in?

They don't know. It's a coin toss as to whether they're going to be able to get their head around the Red Bull. philosophy. Perez right now, he's not the ideal number two, but he's won this year. He's got it. at some points, he's got the confidence. Not all the time. That's why he can't challenge for the championship. But Red Bull, I don't know why they would ruffle Max Verstappan's feathers as well. Why would they potentially bring a driver in that Max might not get on with as well? Those two get on very well. I'm sure Max likes him as well because there is not really any challenge over the

course of a year. And that's what, you know, Hamilton loved about Bottas, I'm sure, is that they never saw them as a threat, really. And that helps that number one driver in the team to thrive even more because the whole team is around them. So, no, one, Perez will be there next year. Unless he bins it in every single race from here to the end of the season, Sergio's got a safe, a safe slot for next year, in my opinion.

Yeah, it's going to be, I think the other argument is that, you know, when we're talking about Alphiarei and how. the last few years they've not had a Red Bull junior to like slot into the Alphotauri then they certainly don't have one that's going to slot into the top team. So it's really weird the Red Bull situation at the moment that they went from having so many drivers to the point where you're like, oh, how has DeCosta not even got an F1 drive in a Toro Rosso or whatever to now to the point where they're almost like trying to find someone, which is absolutely crazy. And let, Daniel Ricardo, there's a lot of talk, you know, because he's there in his Red Bull stuff and he's sat on the

sidelines. But I don't know. I just, I think he would be a risk as well because of what happened at McLaren. And I think he is just enjoying taking that year out. And for him to go in and pile all that pressure on him again, I think would would not be good for him as well. So yeah, it's um peres uh is in quite a good position that he's driving an extremely good car and uh there's they don't really want him to beat max no absolutely not um i'd love to see dania ricardo of course get that opportunity at red bull as well but i can't see it happening um because as you say it's the same risk of not knowing uh how how he's going to perform and and if if red bull have it locked locked away why would they change things we were speaking about botas as well previously uh is botas good enough

you know, in that period of domination, but Mercedes signed him every year because they didn't need to change it. If they've got a dominant car and they're winning nearly every race, they've won 18 of the last 19 races. Why would you think about changing it? It doesn't matter who wins. Well, it doesn't matter for them.

They want to happen to win. But as long as they're winning races, it doesn't really matter. But geez, is Perez making Bottas look like the perfect number two driver? And actually, like, you totally understand, you know, it was annoying as a fan to watch. Hamilton dominate and Bottas only turn up for five races, but at least it was five races,

not one street circuit a year and then a bit rubbish. So, look, Bottas, yeah, fair play, like him getting on the podium all the time and stuff. It makes him look quite good now, how Paris is performing in a car that is supposedly, you know, as dominant as the Mercedes back in the day. Absolutely. But let's see.

I mean, Paris could bring it back. he has shown points this season. We were even speaking, Connie's challenge for the title. And now look at us. It's crazy how things can change so quickly in Formula One. We actually put a vote out. Which of these drivers do you think is most likely to lose their seat this season?

32,000 of you voted, and 77% of you voted for Nick DeVries as the most likely. 11% Logan Sargent, 9% Sergio Perez, and 3% Lance Stroll. I can guarantee that part is not based on performance, but based on his father. So Tommy, that is pretty much it. This has been a very hot recording session.

My goodness me, I need to turn my fan on immediately. Don't even know why I bothered showering. Final thoughts, please. Final thoughts are, I'm warm. And yeah. Well, thanks so much. And sorry to the editor that has to shop up. Yeah, this has been the most choppy podcast we've ever done.

My goodness me. Normally we are genuinely, we do it like one take and we're fine. And you don't really have to cut out. cut out much but oh my god we are two very British people that can't handle more than 20 degree heat absolutely not well that is my final thoughts as well I need hydration immediately thank you so much everybody for watching and listening let us know in the comment section below what you or who you think the driver will be to lose their seat this season if anybody and we'll see you very soon for another piece of content bye

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