P1 with Matt and Tommy - Who will drive for Mercedes in 2026?

Episode Date: July 13, 2025

With the Max Verstappen rumours swirling, we try to work out who will be driving for the Silver Arrows next year. Have George Russell’s performances guaranteed him a seat? Or will Toto Wolff not give up on Project Antonelli? It’s proving a difficult one to work out!You can listen to an extended version of every Race Review this season over on our Patreon! You'll also access to every P1 episode ad-free, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommyFollow us on socials! You can find us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitch, YouTube and TikTok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody and welcome back. It's the B1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. We are here to discuss the ever-discussed topic of the Mercedes seat. And knowing our luck, Tommy, at the minute we start to officially talk about this on a podcast, there will be some sort of release to say exactly. Frankly. There will be news before this goes live. But we are here to discuss the options that Mercedes has.

have or don't have and where we think who we think will end up at the Brackley base team Tommy how are you feeling about this one because your boy is going to be discussed in this he certainly will be uh this could be famous last words and I'm going to say it now and I know you're going to go oh no but you'd think in theory that if they were going to sign Vastappen obviously this is an if they would do it around the Dutch Grand Prix after the summer break but you never know Formula One, do you? We also didn't know that Christian Horner is going to be fired, and here we are. On a random Wednesday morning, so I don't think you can quite predict it. Now, before we dive into everything, Mercedes in 2026, the P1 live show tickets are still available. We can't wait to start

touring the delusion tour and be basically talking about what it's like to be a Formula One fan in 2025, lots of games, audience participation, a lot of fun. If you've been before, I promise you, it will be new, it will be beautiful, and you'll have a great time. We've sold out five nights already There are tickets still available for Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Toronto, Chicago, New York, Dublin and Manchester. So get yours while you can to see Tommy in 4K. Unbelievable scenes. There'll be a link at the description level and you can go click there. Right, here we go then.

So, of course, today, not today, well, 2026. Well, today we are looking forward to 2026 and Mercedes who are tipped to potentially be the team to be at for 2026. new regulations. Of course, at the moment, we have George Russell and Kimmy Antonelli. However, it's not as simple as that. Is it, Tommy? A lot of rumours been flying around. We've had waves of Max Verstappen going to Mercedes, which felt far-fetched at first, but now it's sort of a possibility, I think, in both of our minds. Yeah, Max was first kind of spoken about going to Merck as a genuine possibility in the whole Christian Horner scandal, wasn't he? But then, of course, that's when Red Bull were very, very competitive indeed and Maxa Sappan was winning basically every single race.

Now their performance has fallen off and we now wait to see what Max Sestappen will do. It very much seems like it is a decision that he's going to be making fairly soon, kind of summer breakish or in the next few weeks. And yeah, it's fascinating because any other situation, you'd think George Russell, who's having the best season he's ever had probably, and Kimmy Antonelli, who's done a very solid job as a rookie, going into a very high-pressure team, would be locked in. But of course, they don't have contracts next year. Oh, okay, we have a lot of questions on this.

So let's dive straight into them. First one comes in from P1 Patreon member Jim Clark is my goat. If Max signs and Mercedes pick Russell over Kimmy, they will likely try to get Kimmy another seat. Where would you want to see him next year? So this is the scenario that they go for Russell and Vastappen, which is the most mouth-watering prospect I think you could possibly ask for. Okay, so we're in that realm right now. That is locked in. Kimmy Antonelli, what happens with him?

Where does he go? What does he do? I think, yeah, for sure, if Toto, for whatever reason, decides to go with George, he's going to do his absolute utmost to put Kimmy in some kind of position. The problem is, we've spoken about this, about other drivers as well that aren't in Formula One at the moment, that the seats are few and far between. Of course, we have Cadillac coming in, which gives an extra two seats to the grid. But where would he go?

Toto would not want to let Kimmy go off into the ocean and not. have control over him. So the only way he'll be able to do that is to sign with sort of Mercedes engine type teams and where he can, I mean, to be fair, you can do it even without the Mercedes engine. But I cannot see Toto letting Kimmy go for him to not be able to in a few years, perhaps when he's gained more experience to take him right back. I think that's the only way Toto would allow Kimmy to spread his wings for the next season or two. Yeah, I mean, I'll answer the question for the purpose of fun. But I do, there is not. 1% of me that thinks that if Max Lappan signs for Mercedes George will be there.

Not even 1%. Not even 1%. It's going to be... Wow. Yeah, I mean, I just can't see it because Kimmy Antonelli is Toto's baby new project. You know, he's literally Kimmy Antonelli crashed in an FP1 session. and Toto still was like, yeah, get in the car. He's so, you know, Team Antonelli.

To combat that, why would he be anything else other than that? He's been propping him up this entire time. He's not going to go, sorry, mate, because they didn't have any other options. Like, Kimmy Antonelli was. They did. They could have signed to science, and there was plenty of people. They didn't because exactly because they were going to sign Kimi Antonelli, which is basically like George Russell, I don't want to play with you anymore.

We've got Kimi Antonelli. The contract's probably signed as well, so they're not going to put him in the bin after an. FP1. But yeah. But I just cannot see a situation where Maxa Stappen and George Russell are in the same team, not 1%. Do you? Do you? Yeah, I think there's easily more than 1% chance. No way. Toto Wolf is a businessman. And I think that the scenario that he allows Kimmy to go somewhere else is the exact thing that I said, where Toto will loan him out for a year or two or whatever. because at the end of the day, Toto wants to be winning again.

I think that he is probably feeling rather aggravated about the fact that Mercedes had fallen off a cliff, I guess technically, compared to the domination that they had been at once showing. So for me, why would you not put the strongest line up together to try and get 26 and beyond, especially with the new regulations and with, yeah, but I know you say no chance, but this is Toto Wolf who has shares in Mercedes. He wants to see them do well. Like his wealth is attached to Mercedes.

And the best way Mercedes are going to win from 26, or literally from the first race of 26, is to have Vastappen and rustling the car. If they've got a good car, they win with Max or George, but not with them. Well, I say not with them together. That's just too chaotic for it to happen, in my opinion. He's literally dealt with Hamilton and Rosberg.

That was, that was chaos. chaos to pretty extreme levels at times. It was, but Kimmy Antonelli is just, I just think Toto is so focused on him. Why would he promote him last year to then demote him again and just stall his career and him just sit on the pit wall or like you say, go to another team? And I can't see it. To answer this question, I just can't see a team where he'd go to. I think George Russell leaving, we'll talk about this later, like he's got got more options,

but Kimmy Antonelli, I think, is a tougher one for Toto to like work out because, you know, do you demote him all the way back to Williams? But then who moves there? They've got their line up locked in and things like that. So I just don't feel like Toto would ever want Kimmy Antonelli on the sidelines after taking the enormous risk that he did last year. I know you say about, you know, why would they promote Kimmy just to put him on the sidelines? But the whole scene has changed. Vestappen wasn't available then. Vastappen's available now. So it's not as if there was any kind of opportunity in Toto's mind when he promoted

Kimmy to put Max in the car. So that's why I don't think it's the most likely scenario, but I don't think it's out of the realms of possibility in the slightest because there are definite positives to having Russell and Vastappen in the car, for sure. Those two would push each other to strasospheric levels. Yes, they'd crash a few times, but if you back your boy, then it'll be clearing Russell anyway. I don't disagree. It's just more my perception of how Toto sees George Russell. And unfortunately, I've seen this analogy go around. And I don't think it's fair on George. But he is proper like middle child vibes with, you know, Hamilton, the first born. Kimmy Antonelli, the new. And because this is the thing. George Russell has won, you know, he went into Mercedes in his first year. I think he took too long to promote him. anyway with the risk of losing him, finally promotes him, beats Hamilton his first year,

and then Toto still seems to be like, I'll give you a one year contract. Right, we are getting far too excited about this conversation, Tommy. There are more questions that are definitely linked to this. Let's go to the next question from people on page. Remember, Georgina, if Max does go to Mercedes and George gets kicked out,

where do you think he's likely to go? Hmm. Domino effect, isn't it? Yes. George Russell, could he cause waves in the paddock where some teams drop everything to get him? He would be such a hot prospect to bring in at most teams. I'm not saying this is a Hamilton or Vastappen scenario,

but George is driving superbly well, and I think he does not get enough credit for just how well he did against Hamilton. He doesn't. I know there's the things around all the things we heard in the news, the experimental setups, this and the other. You still cannot take away what George did in those few years that he was teammates with Hamilton. So where does he go? I mean, Cadillac, that's literally a, what was it, like a shot in the dark.

You have no idea. You have no idea if they're going to be terrible or amazing. A lot of the teams are locked in, aren't they? And does he go to Red Bull? Does he roll the dice there? That would be crazy, wouldn't it? Do I trust the Red Bull? There's no like-for-like situation where he can swap in and out.

I think it is difficult, but I agree with you that George Russell, his results do not match the kind of hype around him and how much. Because for me, any other driver that this isn't even him beating Lewis Hamilton. Obviously, he was fantastic at Williams, jumped in with one attempt at the Mercedes and was going to win the race until that punctual. and then he goes into Mercedes, beats Hamilton in his first year, difficult second season, beats him in the third again, having a fantastic season this year. And yet we're here talking about, oh, where would he go? And it's very weird to think, and I don't think it's fair, but it might happen that maybe teams wouldn't like try and snap him up as much as they think.

I do hope for his sake that he has been and his management team have been talking to a few other options if the staff and rumours do escalate. You know, Aston Martin is an option potentially if they'd want to get rid of Fernando Alonzo because they're not going to get rid of stroll. I've had this conversation many times.

Red Bull straight swap, fair enough. But then you're kind of looking of a bit of a downgrade. The only other option, which is maybe, you say a shot in the dark for Cadillac, is maybe Audi want a start, like a race-winning driver to join their team as Audi. Could be an option for him. I do think there will be teams that will try and snap him up. But it's just there's a lot of drivers already kind of getting locked in, aren't they?

Yeah, I guess for Audi, you know, they already have two drivers locked in, don't they? I think Bortoletto's contract goes into 26. Holkenberg, of course, is signed as well. would Audi as a new team on the grid or already want to rip a driver's contract up to get George Russell just from like a PR perspective I guess you have to take that into account

but how I see it is it has to be a red ball play if there is actually a seat going there which it looks like there is then that would probably be where he would look first because as much as Red Bull are on the decline it's probably the best option there's still a championship winning team

They know how to win. Yes, they've lost most of their personnel, which is pretty sad. But, you know, there's no room at the inn at Williams, although he'd never go back there, I don't think. Oh, my word. Of course, none of McLaren, Hass, Ferrari, all locked away. Aster Martin is technically locked away. If they removed Fernando Alonzo and cut his contract early. Just when he's about to go for Newey.

I don't think they would do that. It's difficult because George, unfortunately, and this is the whole conversation around him in the first place with Max, he is a great drive with fantastic results but he's not a Vestappan or a Hamilton that everyone will just barge their driver out the way so he's just behind that at the moment so to lock in where do I think he'll go

I think he would go to Red Bull what do you think Tommy I actually think Audi might try something personally but I could see Red Bull as well they'd probably want a top driver next question from Pee on Patreon member Bex P they just can't possibly lose Russell when he's performing so well

can they? Well, we've touched upon it. Me and Tommy slightly disagree on this one. It is a sad situation, because I don't know what more George Russell could really do. I think he's stepped into the team leader role very well. He's incredibly eloquent, very good at the PR stuff. He's very good at technical feedback.

He's everything you kind of want as a driver in a team, but the problem is, if Max Verstappen is knocking, and we are theoretically saying that he's gone to Mercedes, doesn't even mean he's gone to Mercedes. He might well go to Aston Martin. We don't know. It's not out of the realms of possibility that it's absolutely locked in that it's Merck.

But we are in this scenario, thinking that it would be a choice between Russell and Antoni to lose their seat for 26. But, yeah, if they want that dynamic in Mercedes and Toto Wolf wants that dynamic of a clear number one, clear number two, then it has to be Vastapp and Antonelli. if they and this depends very much on Mercedes

have they seen enough from Kimmy Antonelli to go his ceiling is where George Russell is and beyond that that is the question and the answer they're going to have to come up with when they decide this or if they decide this because Max may not even want to go and Max would probably be at Red Bull next year and this will all be rubbish so yeah I think that's probably one of the key things

is just how much do they rate Kimmy Antonelli after this season. Yeah, unfortunately for George, they can lose him, and it would be basically a more extreme version of the Carlos Sainz situation where Carlos Sites would have never lost his seat in a million years for anyone other than probably Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, of course, Hamilton took his seat. And this is a situation for Russell where if Verstappen wasn't available,

Russell wouldn't have no chance. you know, you've got a young driver there. You know, he's still, he's young but experienced, and he's getting better and better. A proven race winner, I think given the right car, he could definitely challenge and win a title, in my opinion. But there's also a PR side to it in that Max Sastappen, along with Lewis Hamilton, is like the biggest name in the sport. And they've lost Lewis Hamilton, it was a massive draw for Mercedes and probably bruised their ego quite a lot. to lose the biggest driver from a marketing side and as well as this result side that the sport's ever seen. So if they got got Max, you also have to kind of look inside that Mercedes brand.

And while it's incredibly unfair for Russell to lose his seat in that situation, you're always going to pick Max Verstappen over George Russell if you're a huge brand like Mercedes because he's, you know, the biggest name after Hamilton in the spot. certainly is. Question from people on Patreon member Glush. If Merck wants to sign Max for next season, do you reckon Toto is confident enough

to put in some serious performance clauses so that Vastappan again has a way out should Merck not be a top contender next season? Okay, all right. Can we stop ding in the performance clause bell, please? We love a performance clause. I think we're putting a huge amount of weight on this purely because there's already been news articles

this over 100 million buyout clause or euro dollars, whatever it was, I don't know which currency, that Vastappan would need to, or Red Bull would need to be paid in order for Max to be released. This is usually the route

that teams will go. This performance clause stuff, I think, is, it's got more weight than perhaps it should. Because if a team, a big team, want a driver, they will pay whatever money

they need to get them. doesn't count towards the cost cap. This is like one of their top three personnel that doesn't count towards that that sort of money. So they can just chuck money at people. Max can be, I mean, Max is in such an amazing position right now. He's like, okay. Hi, Spida. Come and get me. Yeah. Oh, exactly. So I don't think there'll be necessarily be performance clauses. I think for Max as well, will he want to just start throwing himself at different teams? I don't think that's the play for him either. Mercedes are an incredible bet to take. But I think it's, a very safe bet as well, moving into these new regulations where we very much assume that

it is going to be an engine formula and that Mercedes are going to be very competitive. So I don't think, I think Max, aside from the performance clauses, is just going to be convinced by the vision that Toto War for Mercedes have and the conversations that they've been having for quite some time. Yeah, I would be, I've said this before, I'd be absolutely amazed if Mercedes aren't a top contender next season, particularly. compared to Red Bull. If Red Bull are ahead of Mercedes next year,

like, it's just not, it's just not happening in my opinion. I will record a apology video for this channel to Red Bull. Will you? Me just saying sorry for like an hour. An apology video, an hour. Okay, did we hear the terms and conditions, everybody? It's like the predictions. One hour apology video from Tommy,

if Red Bull are quicker than Mercedes next year. because you're going into like the new regs and for me i took christian horner's comments of like oh max should just wait for next year and then and then maybe move on even though he's got a contract till 2028 of course um which shows in my opinion showed a little bit of kind of vulnerability and i know a lot of people have spoken about that might be a way that another thing that kind of maybe triggered red bull and getting rid of christian horner that's like why are you talking about Max leaving. You can't, you can't let Max leave. And yeah, I, I don't think that a performance clause is going to bother him, like you say, that when these top, top, top drivers need to move,

they can move. Louis Hamilton had a contract. You know, let's not forget he actually had a contract for Mercedes that year. He broke it. It doesn't really matter. And for a massive company like Mercedes, it doesn't matter to him. It is. It really is, because all the matters is, performance and the kind of like money that they're going to get from making something like this happen. That's why even with Max in that that massive kind of contract with Red Bull, they can still try and poach him because they know if they can promise him, you know, a good car. And I firmly believe that the teams do know their kind of performance. They can never be like 100% sure, but you do know that like Mercedes did, didn't they initially? And when they were kind of

approaching Lewis Hamilton, Nikki Loudon said to Lewis like, we're going to be really, really good, by the way, so you're probably going to want to join us. And I'm sure they're probably going to do exactly the same thing to Max right now. Oh, yes, the courting is very much underway. Question from P1 on pitch, remember, Chiller. Is Red Bull going to fall to the midfield if Max goes to Mercedes?

Well, look, if we were talking about this and next year wasn't a regulation change, I would be saying midfield is optimistic. However, it's a big rule change, and there's so many question marks as to who is actually going to be quick. You can't rule out Red Bull of creating a good car. You can't because it is a massive overhaul, and sometimes teams just get it right.

You have miracle stories of, you know, Jensen Button, when he won his World Championship, it is possible for teams to just get it right. So it definitely puts them on the back. back foot though, if Max goes to Mercedes for sure, you lose the best driver on the grid, you're going to struggle, not just purely from a talent perspective, but also developing the car. Max is able to haul a very difficult car to very, well, very fast, very promising, very pole positions, wins, whatever. Like, he's just able to do that. But no one that has been to

that rebel team, apart from him, has been able to do that for many years. So I would say it is a safe bet, just like Mercedes being fastest or up there, it's a safe bet to think that Red Bull would be in the midfield. Yeah, you do think Red Bull would drop down in performance for sure because it's a brand new engine. That is something that I think would be, obviously everyone is building their engine as kind of fresh for the regulations, but Ford coming into Formula One for the very first time. You know, look at Honda. They, of course, won the championship, Red Bull, didn't they? But how bad things were at McLaren when they were like, we're returning to Formula One, we're going to build our own engine. And it took gears for them to kind of build that engine and make it reliable and good for, to be like the championship winning engine that it, that it, we kind of knew from 2021 and kind of 2022 and etc. So, yeah, everything's stacked against Red Bull is what I'd say in terms of. of the approach to the car, the approach to their, you know, them having a new engine.

And of course, if Max leaves, even if you do sign a great driver like Russell to replace him, he's then got to completely learn a brand new team as well. And we all know that even the greats this year are struggling having changed teams. So, yes, it's not looking great for Red Bull at the moment, that's for sure. certainly isn't and that red ball merch that Tommy has will quickly disappear and turn into the silver arrows you best believe it if that happens I'm still I'm still I'm still so unsure because the chat in since we like recorded our podcast has been that this was very much the kind of last chance saloon to keep Max of getting rid of Horner so whether that is enough to convince

him to stay or he sees all the other stuff. He's said before he's very loyal to Helmut Marco and we're about to find out just how much he is. Marco fancies to go going over to the Mercedes as well, then they may well pop along over there to the new shiny toy. German-Austrian connection. You could see it and he knows Toto well and stuff. So yeah, you never know.

You never know indeed. Finally, we did a poll on YouTube and we asked you, you wonderful community, 50,000 of you voted on this poll as to what the driver line up will be at Mercedes next year. 35% of you reckon it will be unchanged Russell and Antonelli. 54% of you reckon it will be Vestappen and Antonelli and 10% have some serious wheel knowledge and say Russell and Vastappan, that's 5,000. It's more than non-per-scent.

And then something else, 1%. That'll just be Vestappen and Hamilton at Mercedes. Hamilton goes back. He's sick of Ferrari and it will be a title battle for the ages. How about that? Imagine. What could be the something else? What do you think the 1% have gone,

or have even thought of that would be the something else? Is there another? Russell and Botas, if Antonelli's performance just falls off a cliff maybe. That's some botas. So let me get this straight. Antonelli, who Toto will be with through thick and thin. Anthony would have to literally crash every single race

between now at the end of the season Toto's like, Bottas, I want you back. I want that 104 Q3 appearance record again. I mean, I can see a Bottas Russell lineup more likely than a Russell-the-Stappen lineup. I'm still on that. I will die on that hill. Fair enough, yeah, all right.

But we'll see. Good stuff, no one asked. I'd love to see it. Of course we'd love to see it. Yeah, so would I. I think maybe that's the sort of dream scenario in my head of wanting some serious carnage. The chaos.

But yeah, we will see. Let's know in the comments what you think. And also give us the thumbs up. Give us a five-star rating. That's 10, actually. I'm holding up 10. 10 stars if you can't see it. Five stars if you can.

It helps us a lot if you really enjoy this podcast on whatever audio platform you listen on. And we will see you next time. We are still in a little bit of a break. We're going to Goodwood. As a recording, we're going to Goodwood tomorrow, aren't we, Tommy? When this goes out, it would have been two days before. So that's time and a lovely chinwack with Ollie Bearman.

Absolutely. See you soon. Bye. I didn't say final thoughts. Wait, say it while you're waving. What's your final thoughts, Tommy? Final thoughts? I just can't wait to find out where Max is going because the speculation is killing me of just

me constantly like my brain going, oh yeah, that's mine. Oh, no, no, actually Mercedes. No, he's going to stay at Red Bull now. It's really annoying. It's really annoying that your favourite driver is so wanted by so many teams. I know. What about Charlotte Clare at Mercedes? That's the size.

something else. Bye. Chaw? Chaw. Right, you do a chore. I always have to cart with chores. Chaw is... Flannel your face because I'm really hot.

And it's not a chore. It's just, it's a need, it's a must. I'm so hot. I need this heatwave to go away. Tommy sat there. Goodwood tomorrow. Yep, Goodwood tomorrow. 30 degrees.

I will be out there with the tank top. No, I won't do that. I'm not going to, that'd be crazy. So, Ollie Pem and the guns. Yeah, do a little arm wrestle like Bella James did with him. P1 is a Stack production and part of the ACAST creator network.