PBD Podcast - Barry Habib On The Government Lying About The Unemployment Rate | Ep. 246 | Part 2

Episode Date: March 14, 2023

In this episode, Patrick Bet-David and Barry Habib will discuss: The government lying about the unemployment rate Mortgage rates  If DeSantis benefit from the SVB collapse  Banks competing for deposits FaceTime or Ask Patrick any questions on https://minnect.com/Want to get clear on your next 5 business moves? https://valuetainment.com/academy/Join the channel to get exclusive access to perks: https://bit.ly/3Q9rSQLDownload the podcasts on all your favorite platforms https://bit.ly/3sFAW4NText: PODCAST to 310.340.1132 to get added to the distribution list --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbdpodcast/support

The Fed thinks that the job market's so great. You got James Bullard, you got all of them on parade saying we got blowout jobs. Number BS. Okay. Number one, in January, showed 517,000 job creations. That is not for real. What they had, what we had was we had a seasonal adjustment. The numbers showed we lost 2.5 million jobs.

But they said, you know, January, we usually use 3 million. So put 500,000 jobs created. We did not create those. But what's even more egregious? Take a look, Rob, just scroll through real quick to the next one. I want to show you, so this is the 517, right? It really would have been 2.5 million losses

on the next one. And go ahead and scroll through if you can. And when you, I wanted to show you the thing from the BLS, just go to the very next slide. Just, yeah, just advance it to the next one You see the bottom left. It's a hero. I don't know if you see there. Yeah, just advance it to the very next slide There you go at the bottom there. You see what's this 2.5 million losses. That's from the BLS You can't play with that now look at the next one the next one's absolutely crazy pat

Look at these numbers guys. You see Bureau of Labor Statistics. Right. It's our government. That's our government So take a look at what they showed from the household survey, which as you all know, that's where you get the human wrap. That's where you get the unemployment rate. Yeah, there you go. They claimed in January, we created 894,000 jobs. But what they did was they made an adjustment called a population control effect. What was that?

They picked up some undocumented workers from early 2022. Now, any of us logically, wouldn't you just, wouldn't you just go back and say, oh, let's revise the numbers. No, no Pat, you know what they did? Although they were never created in January 2023, they put 810,000 jobs as created in January 2023. That's why the unemployment rate went down

instead of going up with that. Wait, you're kidding. No, that's right from the BLS. That's right from the... So those 810 were created in 2022. But they put it in 2023. Now, I don't wanna, this came out February 3rd. Guess what happened four days later, by the way,

do you know what? What was the big 510? No, the state of the Union address was four days later. Okay, so now, who knows if they're related, I'm not gonna say they are, they are, and I just think it's kind of coincidental. But now when we take a look at something like this, that was what happened in January.

Let's go to February's numbers. February's numbers, I thought I'd think very indicative. If you wouldn't mind, just go right to the next slide, brother. So this shows you what it would have been. It would have been 3.9% without the seasonal adjustment instead of 3.4. Now in February's numbers, here's what we got. It showed 311 go to the very next slide if you can

311,000 jobs created, right? But you see on the bottom in yellow there was a big jump in this one category that says if you're unemployed for five weeks or less That jump by three hundred and forty three thousand people. So go to the next slide, this kind of illustrates it. So that's a bucket, that bucket jumped by 343,000. So what goes into the bucket? People that just got unemployed. What drains the bucket? If you either got another job

or you're unemployed less than five weeks. If the job market is so hot, we know that the jobless claims, reportedly that week we're only 194,000, near very, very low. So you're not getting the inflow into the bucket, but it's not draining because people either aren't getting jobs or they're, or they're, they're putting, being in a position here where they're staying unemployed.

That's why you see this going up. That's so wild that they, they presented the way they do to say it's the lowest and how many years, low, 57 years, 50 something years, hey, it's the lowest and this is low, so okay, so Barry, if what you're saying is true, and let's just say it is based on the numbers you're given here, it's not like you're getting the number from a survey, then that means

the economy is worse than it really is. Is that fair fair assessment? We have less full-time jobs now than we did back in May of 2022. Much of the job gains are part-time workers. Much of the job gains are people working multiple. We have less full-time workers. That's the day of the day of the 2020. That's the day of the 2020.

You can look at the best. Pat, the next one's going to really blow your mind. Check this out. Now we've got all these job gains, right? Go to the very next slide if you can, please. Rob, this one's really interesting. Do you see that chart on the bottom there? Yes.

That chart on the bottom shows COVID. Yeah. But what these are is hospitality and leisure workers. This has been the engine of growth. Sure. Most of the job gains have come from this category, but it's not real growth. You're just putting these poor people back to work, right? But if you notice, we're almost back to trend. You see that? How much more even lower than that.

But eventually, let's say we put everybody back. There's not that much more juice left to be squeezed here, right? And if you take a look at the job openings in labor turnover known as the Jolt report, this is job postings. Yep. This category last month was down 194,000. So this tells me the labor market's about to take a negative turn. If the labor, and I'm with you, I'm fully there and I've been saying this for a few months, but I think that's the number and almost talking about. Okay, but let's go there, let's go there.

You, your background, for people that don't know your background, I mean, if you've been on a couple of other times we had you on a podcast, your background, for people that don't know this. You have won the Crystal Ball Award for the most accurate real estate forecaster in 2017, the Susteru Zillo in 2019 and 2020. You're the only three time, I believe, right?

Okay. So you've been able to successfully forecast what's going to be happening. That's kind of how what you're known for with that part of your success. You don't know the things, but this is specific to this. We have a great team. It's not just me, our team, you know.

I'm sure, I'm sure the team is very good. It's a team out there. It's impossible for you to do it by yourself. You need to write people to give you the data, but still your name is tied to you, based on the data you get, these are the forecasts you made. If these numbers are the numbers you're showing, and we just had what's going on right now

with Silicon Valley Bank, okay? And Powell is gonna be sitting here, a lot of people were saying, well, before Silicon Valley Bank, he was gonna raise a rates by half a point, and maybe another half a point, and then back to back, you know, quarter quarter. Now some people are saying,

he's not gonna do anything, let alone some people are saying, he may even cut and lower it. So what is your forecast on based on this, based on inflation, based on Silicon Valley bank, what do you think Powell's gonna do next with interest rates? Okay, so interest rates is very interesting

because mortgage rates are gonna be more determined by inflation and the Fed will have more of an impact on short-term rates and also the stock market. So I believe that the Fed will more than likely have a difficult time hiking more than a quarter percent. I think a half a percent's off the table. I think maybe zero. I don't think they'll cut at this meeting,

but I think that it'll either be a quarter or no move at all. Maybe a pause just to see things settle down. Because remember, the Fed, by moving rates up too quickly, has caused these imbalances. Things will break. Now, the problem with the Fed is moving rates up too quickly has caused these imbalances, things will break. Now the problem with the Fed is that they don't look at inflation mortgage rates and real estate for that matter will be highly motivated and driven by inflation.

I have a couple of slides there of this probably going to be in the beginning. There's a slide there on how mortgage rates follow inflation. If you could see the correlation, okay, this shows you what happens during recession. This shows you mortgage rates go down during every recession. So we, I believe, were headed for recession. It's a matter of fact, while we're on the topic of recession, look at the next slide, very, very interesting, Rob. Go up one, I'm sorry, go up one.

Yeah. Why haven't we not been in a recession? Maybe we are. We already had two quarters of negative GDP, Pat. But take a look at credit card balances, the gray area, that's the recession followed by the pandemic. Everybody forgets we had a recession before the pandemic, two months before it. But credit card balances on top were way up, and the savings rate was like 10%. That big spike in savings was the stimulus. That went into people savings account.

Fake. But look at what they did with it. They wisely paid off their credit cards. They couldn't spend that on anything else. Notice how they drain their savings and it paid off credit cards. Then we got another stimulus check, but we spent that even faster, but what did we do? We bought a lot of name brand stuff that we got. Don't worry. Got another one coming. Boom. And then once that stopped, people like that stimulus lifestyle. Hmm. How do you keep a going, Pat? You charge up your credit cards which have low balances and you drain your savings. We've gone from a 10% savings account to 3.5% and we now owe more on our credit cards

than ever in history. Even this has to have a limit sometimes and that's where we hit the wall. 940 billion dollars credit card. They're poor. Savings rate was the lowest we've had since, it's a long time. It was 17 years ago.

I think it was 2.4% savings right in February. I want to say these are scary numbers to see that. So again, saying that, saying that Powell is almost cornered now with this crisis to have to either not touch it or lower it. Tom, do you think Powell is going to still raise rates? Do you think he's going to delay at 30-60 days to see how the market is going to react to this, to see if any other banks are going to react to this? What do you think Powell is going to do next?

Well, right now, I think it depends on the next 48 hours. Today was a rough day in the market, but not a cataclysmic day in the market. I'm with Barry, I think I have points off the table now. I think it's a quarter point. But if there is any jitteryness in the next 48 hours in banking stocks, like there's fallout, they still need to find a buyer for main Silicon Valley bank. They only found HSBC by the UK one and PNC on Sunday night said, nah, I'm out. They wanted PNC, Trist and US bank, I'm out. They wanted PNC, trust and US bank, which are the top three banks at the next tier.

They wanted one of those, preferably PNC, some stronger balance sheet to pick up United States SVB. If nobody picks that up, you know, it's gonna, I think you're gonna see jitters. And if there are jitters, I think Powell may go zero next Thursday. It's the 22nd. Yeah, we got a week, right? What's today?

14th? 13th, so you got to. 13th, so we got a week in a day. So next Wednesday, if it's jittery, next Wednesday, Powell may go zero, but I believe he's only doing 25. Okay, so here's a question you gotta ask. How many people, and how much you think

Powell communicates with Biden, with Yellen, how much communication you think there's with them and Biden right now? I think Powell spends 14 text messages a day and receives 1400. Okay, so how quickly you think after this event? It's not being funny, I'm saying, you know, I think everybody's hammering at you.

I got you, Tom. So how much you think right now, a emergency call or meeting has been made with all of them to say the following, hey Jerome, we know we can't tell you what to do, but here's what I want you to be thinking about. We both know what's gonna happen if you raise the rates a half a point.

The reason why this happened with Silicon Valley Bank is because the rates increasing the way it did, and I kind of messed them up. Negatra, how many more banks like that are out there? I don't know. But if you increase it, the way you were gonna increase it, a point to point an a half over the next four, five, six months, this may be the time for you to pump the brakes

at least for 90 days to see how this reacts. Do you think that's the responsible call for Yellen and Biden to make to Powell? I think Yellen made that call on Friday afternoon after they seized SVB in the morning. They knew where the dominoes were going. They were watching the market. I believe that call happened before dinner time on Friday. Can I shake? Well, I agree with you. I mean shake? Well, I agree with you.

I mean, who knows? I agree with you. I think your guess is a very, very good one. I want to show you where I think inflation's going and I want to show you why I think that the Fed, if they only would pay attention to this, they would understand that they've already done more than enough and inflation's rolling over already.

Can we please go to the chart, go up a little bit, and I want to pull this chart up that shows in force. You're putting that up. Pat, I think that is. Right there. Right there. You made the right. Right before the roller coaster.

Okay. So what this shows you are shelter costs. Now when you look at CPI, the consumer price index, the core CPI is what's important because that's how you determine monetary policy. Core takes away food and energy. The Fed can't influence a bird fluid. Egg prices going up weather, oil production. So they take that out.

They say, let's look at the core rate because we can influence this. 43% 43.2 to be exact of the core CPI is shelter cost. So that's rent and owner's equivalent rent. The way that the Fed looks at housing and CPI looks at housing is as a service, as you know, it doesn't matter what your mortgage rate is, it doesn't matter what your home value is, what am I paying rents and what can I rent my home for? So that's what they look at. Take a look at what's happening in this area.

It was 18% a little over a year ago, now it's going up by 3%. But the problem is there's a lag. They count the last 12 months, so it takes time. So if you just click to the next one, it's like a roll of code. You got to put it in play mode though, because there's an animation too. It's like real time shelter cluster coming down, but the way it's in CPI, go to the next one, just put it in play mode and go to the next slide. Now advance it forward. If you press hit the forward arrow. It's not doing anything. All right. So go to the next slide and just put that one into play mode.

Yeah, for whatever reason, Rob is doing it right. It's just for whatever reason. Yeah. The computer doesn't react to it. It did it again two weeks ago, I think Rob. So Rob, if you put that in, maybe it's because it's in full screen, look at the, go with the book one, Rob. With the one that's to the left of full screen.

Are you able to get out of this Rob or no? Rob, please tell me you're not too big. He's got to pay. He's got to pay. You got the right one Rob, but just see if you can go to the very next slide. You see the arrow on the bottom left. There you go.

Keep going one more hour now. Okay, that will go back one. If you could play this one, I wanna show you this particular slide, but if you hit forward on that one, it's not going to happen. There it is. Okay. So you see the blue line there.

That's the way it is within the CPI report. It's saying shelter costs are going up 7.9 because of the lag. In real time, it's 3%. There's a mathematical calculation we all could do, guys. Take a look. If you take the difference between the two, which is 4.9%, and you take the weighting of 43%, CPI core is currently overstated by 2%. Very.

Explain what your, Ex- Mortgage rates have to come down. Explain this though. Well, fifth grader. Long-term rates have to come down, because inflation's already coming down. Just be patient and wait for this lag.

Okay, so there we go. The role of the folks. Let's, can I just ask you that? You're saying that mortgage rates are going to come down. They have to come down because inflation is right there. Barry, some people will say you're talking like a mortgage broker. We're not, we're not a good one.

You were with GMAC National Sales Director. Your last time you stopped doing loans was 07. You're like one of the greatest LOs that we've had in a market. So a lot of time when realtors or loan officers say that, you're in this space. The counterargument to that would be, okay, we saw what happened when we made money pretty much cheap for 12 years, and then we try to get off of it. You know, it didn't work for us to do that. And right now, some will still say a lot of properties are overvalued. The amount of how much home values have increased

compared to income has increased, it doesn't match. The saving doesn't increase at the, so Pp can't afford to buy a house at today's price. I have a chart for that to show you that it's, it's a little bit of an interesting scenario. It's not that, right now the affordability is worse, but the affordability will improve, though, Patrick, there's how. Okay, a couple of things. First on the chart. It isn't, when you say affordability is worse, but the affordability will improve, though, Patrick, there's, how?

Okay, a couple of things. First on the chart. It isn't, when you say affordability, but forget about the charts for a second. Isn't it when you say affordability will improve? It, this year. Okay, so you know what that means to me? That's a very nice way of saying,

you're about to lose equity in your home. Your property value is gonna go down. I think that actually we probably will see about three percent nationwide appreciation this year because the level of inventory, it's just so tight. We saw already in January, when rates dropped to about 6% that there are multiple offers around the country. I'm not seeing that, though.

In January, we saw it. But I'm gonna slow back. But I'm gonna tell you, from a buyer standpoint, I'm not seeing that. From a buyer standpoint, I'm not seeing that. I'm seeing from the buyer standpoint, I'm not seeing that. From a buyer standpoint, I'm not seeing that. I'm seeing from the buyer standpoint minus 500,000, minus one million, minus 200,000. They lowered by another 299,000.

They lowered by 300,000. No, no, well, I mean, I don't know, I mean, always will be specific instances. Obviously, you're right on the specific instances. But if you go by the numbers, let's just say from the FHA or from K-Shiller, the seasonally adjusted numbers show that real estate values from the very peak after 121 consecutive month rise

are down 1% from FHFA, 2.7% from K. Schiller. Those are the numbers from K. Schiller, and those are the best two sources that I've got. You know what a seller will say? A seller will say, Barry, I hope you're right. Bahakam, I'm not getting any offers of qualified buyers today.

Because I hope you're right. They're hibernating with 7% rates, but that's why this is so important. But you can't wait for you to say, guys, let's lower the rate. It's all going to work itself out. That's the problem. The problem isn't for the powerless sitting there saying, I get what you're saying, Barry. I understand what you're saying. A lot of loan officers are getting crushed right now.

A lot of realtors are getting crushed right now. I get it, but I can't do this right now. But he does it to the child mortgage rates, Pat. He does not get the mortgage rates are going to trade and follow inflation, long-term investor, the short end of the curve, 100%. All the short end of the follow that, but the long end of the curve won't.

So that's fair, but that's kind of like my kid saying that, trust me, I'm gonna read 100 pages this week. Let me play iPad on Monday. that. Trust me, I'm gonna read 100 pages this week. Let me play iPad on Monday. I'm telling you, I'm gonna read 100 pages by the end of the week, because I'm gonna read it. Just let me play iPad on Monday. I'm like, no, that's not how life works. First, read 100 pages, then I'll let you play iPad, right?

First, let's lower inflation. Then let's lower. That's why it's so important, because inflation on a year over your basis It has been stubborn because the comparisons from shelter have propped it up But also the comparisons from where we were a year ago were relatively high If we take a look the data that you should be circling is May 10th on your calendar That's what we get the inflation data that begins a string of information may 10th

Okay, a string of inflation data that will be lower replacing higher inflation data. That begins a string of information. May 10th. May 10th. Okay. A string of inflation data that will be lower, replacing higher inflation data from the previous year, it will bring the year over year numbers down and we'll get the shelter. Very trust me, everybody wants you to be right. I'm not sitting here saying, I don't want you to be right.

I want you to be right. But the market is seeing other things. The market right now when it comes on to buying car, the national car payment right now was $9.11 or $9.20. Just two years ago, it was $5.75. How the hell is the average American able to go to that? So rates on a million dollar loan two years ago, the payment was nothing.

Today on a million dollar loan at the race that I'm getting, if I got a 750 credit score, if I can show everything, it's nearly 50 extra. These are two companies not increasing income income income is by 50%. No, but you doesn't have to because you don't use all of your income to qualify for it. So a couple of points income according to ADP went up 7.2% year over year. Car payment went up nearly 100%. You're 100% right. Colleges, 500%.

Guys, I agree with you. I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm not disagreeing with you. It is less affordable. However, in an equivalent state of affordability, you had 20% appreciation. I'm saying 3% appreciation and predominantly due because you have such unbelievably record low inventory. This 578,000 units for sale in this country.

I tell you what, here's what I'm going to tell you. You're so good. I'm going to do my next refinance with you. I'm going to do loads. I have no idea. I'm saying this one you may want to do. It's going to be be someone. But no, so you know, are you getting nominated for another crystal ball award?

I'm just going to say, well, look, well, let's see what happens, right, with rates. Nobody knows for sure. Of course, could I be wrong? Of course, I could be wrong. However, to me, when I look at something like this and I say, okay, it appears that inflation should be coming down, historically mortgage rates, or all long rates, always following inflation.

What I hope happens with Jerome Powell, I hope he doesn't break. Okay, that's my fear. what I hope happens with Jerome Powell. I hope he doesn't break, okay? That's my fear. I hope he doesn't break. You know what I said today on the call when all these guys are saying, but Patrick, but Patrick, but Patrick, I said, listen, is it fair to say

that a crisis happened last week to the economy? Yeah, it did. How the hell is the market up on Monday? Tell me when in your life something bad happened in your life and you got rewarded the next day. I don't, you realize how that makes no sense. There needs to be, if I don't go to school, like this kind of like me going to school

and I skipped two weeks straight, I don't even go to class. I don't know what my homework is. Hey, Miss Taylor, how are things? Well, Patrick, great job because you're great one from 72% to 91% of the life. How do you other my great go up? How do you come to school last two weeks? That's what's going on right now.

This is where the average person watches the market and says, I got to tell you, man, this is exactly what I want to have nothing to do with finance. I'm going to go freaking be a construction worker. That's, I'm going to be a general, I'm going you man, this is exactly what I want to have. Nothing to do with finance. I'm gonna go freaking be a construction worker. That's, I'm gonna go be a general, I'm gonna go be a plumber. Forget this stuff here. So you mean to tell me the 16 biggest bank in America goes out of business. And on Monday, right in a people panicking, they say, bye. Yeah, I make a lot of sense to me.

By the way, when we started the show, the market was up at 3 p.m. when we started it now at the close of the market. The Dow was down 90 points. And the S&P did close negative for the day. You know what that means to me? Do you know down 90 points? What is 90 points on 32,000? That's a lot. It's nothing. It's 0.1% 0.2% 0.28. 0.28. That's nothing. Yeah. That's the end of the day. But the last day, thank God, took profit. Yeah. So it was in the S&P last day on 0.15 minor numbers. The S&P was up to 0.45. Yeah, that's the numbers right there. If you want to look at it, Nasdaq was, Nasdaq was higher 0.45%.

S&P's down 0.15. So basically, it was, it was a nothing burger today. No, there's other reasons why the S&P by there's some technical stuff going on breaking underneath. It's 200 day moving average. There's some negatives for the stock market that I see that could cause a little heart burn. Maybe another 10% drop.

But you guys remember in 2007, 2008, I mean, I was just starting my financial career. I couldn't spell for one kid at that point. But we remember just the slow drip of information boom boom all the sudden Laman brothers is holding what's going on here and then and then the market's 500 points today 500 points today 500 points today Have we seen any correlation with what's happening then with now? Is there like you know if you don't learn from history You're destined to repeat it Is it too early to tell what are your thoughts?

or you're destined to repeat it? Or is it too early to tell? What are your thoughts? Well, like I said, I think that I think baby the stock market, the equity market appears to me to be a little bit overextended. I think that it will likely reach a 3500 on the S&P, but it's anything could happen in this world, right?

Yeah, by the way, Rob, can you try to find how bank stocks did today? Okay, bank stocks did today. I'm curious, you know, exactly, there you go. I just found this here. Let's see what it's shown. Oh my God, right across the board. Let me just send this to you. And then also, Rob, if you can find KBW index, that's right. The banking index, KBW. Exactly right. I'm going gonna send this to you. You just see it right there. Now remember, they have to pay insurance on all of this so it's gonna be more expensive for them

because they have to pay insurance on everything above 250. There you go Pat, there's the index. 11% down today. What is it? This is the KBW NASDAQ bank index so this is an index fund bank. 11%. 1166. And by the way the right at the start, it was able through the

day, but see the start. Wham. Okay. So Chase is down 1.8. Bank of America is down 6% give or take Morgan standings down 2.29 wells is down 3% HSBC is down to Royal Bank of Canada is down point six Goldman Sachs is down three point seven one Charles Schwab is down 11 point five seven City group is on seven four five. Let's see any one of them. That's a big numbers that they have There's going to say here that Goldman Sachs down twelve. Oh no three seven. Okay. That's twelve point by the way Bank of Nova Scotia shout out to you guys. They're up 0.74%.

Look at Charles Schwab, down 11 and a half. Yeah, I saw that. USB. USB is 10% down. PNC is down 5.8, 5.18, I&G, okay, there you go. A true financial corporation, nearly 17%. So none of these guys, very few, they're more than 1166, but the fund is down 1166, give or take.

So this is good. It should be like this. There should be a price to be paid, right? Now people should be a little bit skeptical. People shouldn't be sending their saying, it kind of worked itself out. But here's the part. I guess the question everybody at the end of the day

has to ask now is this. You know the whole FDIC quarter of a million dollars, okay? So if now you're gonna come and protect the positives and you're saying they should do that, fine, no problem. Then you have one of two decisions you guys gotta make. Either one, you have to increase to 250 and put no limit, which is kind of what you're doing right now, or raise a two-way number. But if you say 250 and you're willing to do that no limit, which is kind of what you're doing right now, or raise a toy number.

But if you say 250 and you're willing to do that no limit, then it's not really 250. It's just a wink, wink, 250. Hey, be very careful, but don't worry about it. We're gonna back you up even if it's more than 250. One part of government will pay you the 250. The other part of government will give you the rest. So what's the right thing to do?

Do you think that number needs to be what Tom? What do you think that number needs to be? Well I agree with Mark Cuban and Mark Cuban just said shouldn't we move this to 500? Like a half a million dollars insured. I think that's a rational approach. Now I'm all in favor of protecting depositors. I am one, not a SVP, but I am a depositor and I'd love to see myself protected. But I'll tell you what I don't like. With this basically tells the banks is that you can be foolish and the government's going

to bail out your depositors and you only have to worry about the investors. I just think when you make these bailouts, it's a moral hazard. But I think it should be 500 to your core point. I think it should be a little higher than that. I think probably a million is probably more realistic for today's day and age. What that will do is if you have money in payroll, you can probably do sweeps, you can invest it in treasuries and then bring it back in the day before payroll. It is the digital age, you could do these things.

However, a million would alleviate for small businesses the need to kind of go back and forth with more sophisticated banking. You know how they say like to make six figures, they want it used to be, right? So to use that analogy, when did the FDIC $250,000 limit come into effect? How long ago was that? Do we know? Can we Google that? Because if it was 50 years ago, it's not a same number.

It was a hundred thousand. It was a hundred thousand. What if we adjusted the 250 across time? Well, exactly. It was a hundred thousand for a long time. Was it? I'm just trying to look for, I'm sure Rob is on the ball here. But like, just like, for instance, instance, this, this, this past year that

we've seen that social security has increased by like 8% to deal with inflation and the cost of living, CPI and all that. I'm wondering if that same metaphor could be used for the FDIC. And by the way, Rob, when you do that, can you also run a poll on the podcast right now, since we're on the topic of what they think it needs to be increased to. Should it stay at, I'm asking this question on Twitter, well, keep it at, keep it at 250, okay? I'm more towards you, which is, I think a million bucks

is enough because we can keep it at a million for 10 years, 20 years. And you just kind of keep it at that number. And also Pat, you don't want it to be too much more than that because then you got to pay insurance on that where that would put some banks that are smaller in a tough position. Mm-hmm.

And you bring up a good point there, Barry. A lot of these bank accounts are companies, businesses. I don't know too many just average Joe's, just with quarter million in the bank, maybe a million bucks in the bank. But a lot of these are companies that don't want to diversify. Imagine if you're a company with $5 million in assets. You don't want to deal with 10 different banks. Like what Cuban said, you have all these fees.

It'd be great for the banks, but you just want to consolidate, keep it simple. That's a good point. Especially if it's payroll that you're dealing with. Again, you could avoid that by putting it in treasuries and back and forth, but I puts strain on a small company. You know, you got a bookkeeper or a one, you know, if you're a company with 15, 20 people, it's not easy.

Also in treasuries, isn't there a sort of a lock up period? You can do like, you can do it where it can match your payroll period. You could stagger it. Yeah, but that's where it gets very complicated. Yes. Exactly. Keep it simple, Stu. Put the kids complicated. Yes. Exactly. Keep it simple, Stu, put the kids principle.

Yeah, running that poultry see what's gonna happen with those numbers, but a couple of things here that we're looking at with savings rate. I don't know if you guys saw this here, Wall Street Journal, savers pile money into bank CDs as rates top 5%. Did you see that? Where banks are top and 5% and, by the way, when is the last time we had 5%?

I think the last, why I can tell you who it was, I remember who ran a commercial every day talking about 5%, 4.5%, 5.5%. You know what the company was? I.N.G. direct. I don't know if you remember that. Americans are rediscovering CDs as a safe haven, am high inflation rising interest rates,

and economic anxiety balances in CDs soaring from 36.5 billion dollars in April, is this correct? Damn, did you see these numbers? Balance increased in CDs from 36.5 billion dollars in April of last year to $418 billion January of this year, no time. That's 12x.

Yeah, $418 billion. Banks are competing for deposits again after several years have shown little inclination to do. So the top yield and nationally available 12 month CDs are now between five and five and a quarter, which is significantly higher than the average yield on a 12 month CD currently at 1.5.9 CDs work best for relatively short term savings goals, such as down payment on the house. It's crucial to shop around and consider that. But Pat, that's the problem is that you're pulling money out of deposits and you're putting them in CDs.

Yes. And now you have long dated maturities that there's a mismatch. Yep. That's a good point. What do you think about it, Tom? Well, first of all, I agree with the mismatch, but the second part is I think there's, there's your, there's your answer. Mortgage originations are at their lowest point in 28 years. And where's the down payment money?

I think you're seeing a lot of, this is, look, this is liquid money Americans have that will a significant amount of that you just described is basically down payment money that's on the sideline. This is, and I read last Friday, the most rate sensitive, the 35 year old home buyer today is the most sensitive, that generation, most rate sensitive buyer in the history because their lives, they've never seen this. They don't understand that it was perfectly reasonable to have a $600,000 home with a 6% loan on it with reasonable property tax district.

They don't understand that that's perfectly realistic. They've been living in a payment economy from their car to everything else they've had that has been so artificial because of Zerp and so now it's all coming home to roost and they're like six percent good lord and their grandparents are saying what why are you screaming? I want to show you a scary number. I want to show you a scary number. Somebody just send this here to me St. Pat, take a look at this here and this is by Nick, Nick James, if you're watching this, this is you send it to me. So zoom in here, and this is by Nick James, who's, if you're watching this, this is you send it to me.

So zoom in here, FDIC, a goal all the way to the bottom, what their balance sheet is and how much you're protecting. Right now, the amount of money they have, if you look at that closely, they have $125 billion. You know how much you're protecting? $9.9 trillion. Did you hear that? Yeah, say that one more time. Okay, yeah. I'm not expecting $9.9 trillion. Did you hear that? Say that one more time.

Okay, yeah. I don't know if I was on this page right here. Has $125 billion in their balance, but they're insured deposits, the quarter million dollars on the millions of accounts that are out there, they're protecting $9.926 trillion. they're out there, they're protecting 9.926 trillion dollars.

It's like, you're okay. It's not that bad. No, but this is the point. What this is showing is okay. That's the problem. What this is showing is the fact that you can't just say, we got you, don't worry about it. No, you don't have the money. You don't have the money, by the way,

you may be able to do it for one SVB bank, maybe for a second bank, if all of a sudden you get a third, four, five, seven, eight, nine, 10th, they can't do anything. At that point, if this happens. So you're saying they weren't just concerned about the poor citizens with deposits that SVB,

that they looked at their own dashboard and said, good Lord, we better make sure there's no runs on banks my day. That's right. That's right. That's exactly right. By the way, you know what that number is? Do you know what that number is? Like what percentage of the insured deposits they have? What is, is it 1.26%? It's 1.26%. Yeah, that's that sounds about right. Let me do you understand what I'm asking here? Yes. Like what they have

They only have 1.26% yeah, nine hundred to be 10% so yeah, it's about one and a quarter percent. Yeah That's it. There is a very sure okay, so that should answer the question here on Whether they're saying well, I just asked the question right now on Twitter. I said keep it at 250 50 101 million unlimited 36% is the highest said keep it at 250, 501 million unlimited. 36% is the highest, said keep it at 250. 500,000 is the lowest, 12%. One million is the second lowest, 23%. But do you know 29% said keep it unlimited? You know what that tells you? Most people have no clue

that the number and the kind of funds that we have, how the hell are we gonna be able to protect this unlimited? when you only have 1.26% of the dollar a month in short right now, the FDIC? Can I tell you actually why low key? I kind of really appreciate what's happening right now with the Silicon Valley bank because it's, you know, this whole return to normalcy and all that. These are the types of conversations that we need to be having as Americans, with the debt that we're taking on in America, right?

And the situations that are going on in the banks over the last few years, the, the, whether it's cultural issues, like the wokeism stuff and LGBTQ and critical race theory and all these, then it became abortion and COVID and jabs and, oh, NFTs and meta world, and I'm buying real estate in the fucking Metaverse, who gives a shit, this is what makes America tick. These are the types of issues that we really need to focus on, and get on the same page here, not all the nonsensical stuff.

Like, I just bought an NFT in the Metaverse with a COVID mask attached to it. Like, let's get past that and get back to reality here. I think that's very important. Absolutely. I just ask you to be a little sensible for people that are going through challenge and time. And have a little sympathy and compassion

for the folks that bought land at $4.8 million in the metaphor. In the metaphor. Versus the abord, abord, abord. Have a little bit of respect. Seriously, you know what? This is respectful of a lot of people right now. Okay, so next question, next question, Tom,

the market today is reacting to what's going on. Okay, a day, two days, three days, a week, two weeks, three weeks, four weeks, I'm gonna go strictly to you here. Do you think, if I were to ask you the chances of this happening with another bank that's worth more than $100 billion? The 38 banks that are worth $100 billion or more, what is the likelihood of another bank

or two also going through this the next few months? Give me the percentage. What do you think the percentage is? You can say, you know, whatever percentage, if you're betting, man, what do you think it is? Well, knowing what we know and the Zerp for so long and such a level of irresponsibility, I think it's probably out of 25% chance. You think that high. Yeah, like, oh my God, that's a... I think there's probably a 25, well, here's a 25% chance of like a run on the bank and everything else going like this.

Or I think there's a 25% chance that there's another bank like signature that gets a tap on the shoulder, different question. Is there another bank like signature that the regulators are gonna like reel up and say, okay guys, we gotta read those freaking footnotes and we got to read everything right now. Is there another bank out there that they're going to collar like they did the New York other bank? No one knew about this other New York bank. It was an oh by the way point

in the Sunday news cycle, right? Now, what's this other bank signature? Well, while we were talking to Silicon Valley bank, we already knew this was coming in. So we kind of sent a couple of the boys over there to kinda pull them in the line. So do I think there's one more? I think there's a 25% chance at that. That's a pretty high number right there. I think that's a very high number.

Barry, I think you may be a little bit more conservative than that. Where do you have with that? So if you would, there's a chart I have that I'm gonna send it to you, Pat. I'm gonna text it to you. Or. I'm gonna text it to you. Or so, actually, I sent it to Rob. Was that the best way to go here?

All right, I'm texting it to you. It gives a scoreboard. So take a look at that. I just texted it to you Rob. I think if the Fed did not step in, there'd be a hundred percent chance of this happening, but now that the Fed stepped in with this facility, I think that it is unlikely

that it does happen. And so I would agree. If the Fed didn't do it, very, very bad. Yeah. First, republic jumping around on one leg now. Exactly. They're amputated one leg. Exactly.

Just to be clear, you're saying there'd be a hundred percent chance of another bank. I agree with them. Yes. But that's what I'm thinking about. I agree with them in a way where... Yeah, I have. Take a look at that. That's your scoreboard. You know why?

You know why he's, why I'm on the side of what he's saying right now, if they don't do anything about it, because what this decision did to the other 27, to the other 26 regionals and the number of communities and all the smaller banks, I, as a depositor, said, it's going to be fine. Yes. The FDIC is going to step in.

But here's a question, just like we just found out, what percentage of the positives you think know that the FDIC, on their balance sheet, only has 125 billion to protect 9.9 trillion. What percentage of the positives in a marketing know that? Zero. I didn't know that. We all didn't know that. I just learned right now myself.

So, so that's the part. So you're 25% even with it happening. Where are you at now that the Fed did step in? But what would you be at? Would you say 5% 10%? Yeah. Unlikely because I think there's facilities to get you out of it. I don't have no idea, but I mean,

you guys have a lot of credibility here. Here's a great story here. What I would like to avoid is sort of like a self-fulfilling prophecy and be like, these banks are definitely going under and then the narrative kind of starts happening with that. I like that the fact that the government is stepping in and ensuring people everything's okay. Right.

Well, you were gonna, if you would, I thought you were gonna ask me, like, do you know of one? And I was gonna say first republic. But beyond that, I agree. I think there's a lot of banks out there right now that are trying to make it right if they're not right. And they also know that the depositors are safe.

Because grandma has put this thing out there, $25 billion in the BTFP. Let me ask you guys a question, Barry, this for you. So this is sort of a naive question, because I don't work on bank balance sheets. But if you're at Chase, if you're at Goldman, if you're at Wells, the BOA, like, you're talking about the Silicon Valley bank didn't have the risk officer or the risk manager even working for the last eight months. These banks, I assume, are alert, red alert, red alert. Let's make sure we're solvent.

Are there protocols in place that banks are making sure that they're good to go? I think that hopefully that's something that everybody is looking into. I mean, they probably already know where all the bodies are buried, right? Now I think everybody else has a line of sight to see that these investments in supposedly risk-free assets that aren't subject to the haircut because of the fact that interest rates have gone up. I think people are looking at what is the percentage of loans that you have that were at very low yields

that mark to market if mark to market right now, how much would your actual solvency be? Yeah, and this goes back to past four points of capitalism and the freedom to fail. And the metaphor of the entire 2008 crisis was what? Too big to fail. So I'm wondering with all this consolidation of banks and Pat Senga, we need more competition in banks. What happens if one of these massive banks fails? Like what happens to the US at that point?

Well, no, that that part is when others will come in and pick them up for pennies on a dollar. Right? With Walmou. You saw three away, three, 12, whatever the number was, how much did we're about? They were bought for buck nine, billion nine. That's nothing, right? That's pennies on a dollar. Walmou went like this to Chase and how uncomfortable was the CEO sitting right here three

four months ago. The most uncomfortable meeting that we had because he thought he was coming here to talk about seven keys of success and we talked about how the hell did Wama won the biggest banks in America go down the way it did so yeah that that to me you know that there's a part where if you're looking at this and whether you agree with the decision or not you just have to make sure there's not three or four other banks out there. Because if there is, Tom, FDIC cannot do nothing. It'll be another quantitative easing, 3.04.0, 4.0, whatever you want to call it. Super tarp. And this time around, it will not be a small

number. This time around, it's going to be a couple trillion dollars if that happens again. And the banks every day, and this has been part of Glass-Steagall and a lot of other regulation, the banks at the end of each day have to post to the regulators balance sheet with certain tests, right? And so there is visibility out there. That's why the regulators jumped in on Silicon Valley bank on not just a crashing stock price. They jumped in on because they run on the bank. It's actually, they were almost kind of blind to the public activity because they look at

the sheet at the end of the day and they're like, sweet Jesus, you know, these guys are dead. And the regulators can only jump in on the regulatory violation. And so that's what happened. And whenever there's a $42 billion request, and all of a sudden, they're negative $958, just under a billion at the end of the day, and they're like, okay, not only have you flipped the circuit breaker, you flipped all of them. And here we come.

And so that happens every day. I got a crazy question for you. There's not like, there's no visibility. This has that happens every day. I got a question for you. There's not like, there's no visibility. This has nothing to do with anything, but it does. We know what's happening next year. We know right now Vivek Ramaswan is going out there making his rounds and he's getting on this space. He's working his, he's everywhere, right?

The guys like this, he's hustling. You can tell he's out there. You saw Pence make a comment that he made. He's still on the January 6th comments that he made about. I don't know if you guys saw that or not. But you know, it's gonna go down as one of the worst embarrassing, what did he call it? He threw Trump under the buzz.

In a major major way. This tree won't treat him fair. He endangered my family. Yeah, something like that that Pence said, right? Who is gonna use this crisis the most and who will this crisis help the most? Does this help Biden? Does this help Trump? Does this crisis the most and who will this crisis help the most? Does this help Biden? Does this help Trump? Does this help the Santas? Does this help a candidate from the outside that's

going to come in? Who does it help? Or it's too early to tell. What do you think? Tom, I'll go to you first. I think this helps the Santas for three reasons. The mainstream media, once again, Trump derangements syndrome. They're out there attacking him, saying it's all his fault. And it's irrefutably on Biden's watch. And so the guy that's standing over here, that there's really nothing stuck to him is the guy just got a benefit out of a couple big crisis and rock throwing. and so I think that helps the Santas. I think not that he's running. I don't think Bernie Sanders is running but this entire storyline just screams the millionaires and the billionaires get all the favors out here and the little guy that the whole main street versus

Wall Street narrative right there. I mean this is Silicon Valley bank getting bailed out. I mean in the heart of tech Valley out there, and this just is gonna go right to the squad and AOC, and they don't care about you, they don't care about Main Street, all they care about is Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and it's just gonna be the same old, you know, Bernie Narrative.

And by the way, that was the infancy of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and how this all started. And he's kind of not wrong to call out this sort of crony capitalism. I don't know. I think that because this can affect people who are on a salary that are getting paid, I think it's a little bit of a different thing. And because you do have pain from people who made the investments in the bank, the big money who were the investors, the stockholders, they got wiped out. The bondholders

probably get a lot of pain that they're going to feel. So I don't think that that's the way that it'll be told in certain media outlets. I don't think they'll tell the whole story. I think they'll do exactly what you're saying. I think you're right, that that's the spin that they'll try to put on it. But this is not a Donald Trump problem. He did not create this. This was a Dodd-Frank issue and this was a lack of oversight issue, which is for the last couple of years

under the current administration. I mean, the balance sheet of this bank turned last year. This was a very profitable bank. These investments turned based upon what the Fed did under this administration's watch. So I know they're gonna try and spin it, the best that they can, but anybody who can see through that

can see that this is clearly on the Fed, it's clearly on the additional stimulus that causes the inflation. And it's on the lack of oversight on what these banks were able to do. At the end of the day, isn't it on specifically Silicon Valley bank more than anything, right? They were allowed. Yes, it is, of course, but they were allowed to not have to disclose these as Tier 1 capital losses because of the Dodd-Frank ruling.

Rob just pulled a sub-Rondescentis blames woke culture for Silicon Valley bank collapse, reminds him of financial crisis, and Bernie made off. He's trying to jump on top, jump on it. The only reason I'm laughing is because Rondescentis is gonna blame everything on woke culture. That's the entire MO. This bank, they're so concerned with the DEA and politics

and all kinds of stuff. I think that they really diverted from focusing on their core mission while noting that he didn't have any similar information on certain Florida banks or any concerns on runs, run on banks in the state. By the way, can you pull up what the chief, I don't know if it's the chief operating officer, but one of the C-sweets could have been the VP with a lady set and her profile. You have it, I send it to you.

It's a picture that you have. It's one of the three pictures that would right there. Go back. This is the head of financial risk management and model risk Silicon Valley bank UK limited. The phrase, you can't see. Resonates with me as a queer person of color and a first-generation immigrant

from a working class background. There were not many role models for me to see grown up. I feel privileged to co-chair the LGBTQ, I don't even know ERG, and help spread awareness of live-it-queer experiences, partner with charitable organizations, and above all create a sense of community for our community, employees, and allies. This is the head of financial risk management and model risk Silicon Valley bank, UK limited. I mean, what that profile has to do

with how good you are at your job, I don't know. But listen, go for it. Hey, I think Vayteam is gonna rock because I'm half a Syrian, half a Armenian, born and raised in Iran, lived at a refugee camp in Germany, and I can relate to people whose fathers is a 99 cents store cashier, and parents got to do, I can't imagine if I put that on my profile.

And you're also a married man who's straight, and you have kids, and you like coaching baseball, and what does that have to do with the fact? Well, to her, that could work against me. Yeah. To her, that could work against me. But don't assume that it's a her because her name, his name is J. Oh my God.

Oh, R.R.R. Our guy posted a picture on P.B.D. podcast the other day. If you go to Twitter profile, he's so funny this stuff. He posts. Uh, uh, uh, he posts that he says, uh, only kids from 90s will remember this. I don't know if you saw this or not, Rob. This meme even made me crack up. I was peed my pants when I saw this. I'm like, this guy's funny. I'll send it to you. Okay, go to more lower. It should come up right there to more lower right there. Only 90s kids will remember

this. Yeah. I remember that. Yeah. Well, it's crazy. I was I was I was having lunch yesterday with a buddy, Oliver, if you're watching this. And he said that he was traveling and there was a drop down box just like this. And he had to enter his pronoun, had to. He was traveling. And it was like, what'd you put in? And he's like, well, I put in, you know, he is. He's like, I've never done this in my life.

But it was all the he, she, we, they, us, who, what, when, when, they, LGT, QG, and he's like, I do it, I'm just trying to get a flight here, but I like it. Honestly, if you think about it, to some people it's intimidating that American alphabet has how many letters in it? It's 26. It's 26. Yeah. And that's already intimidating. Yeah, I know.

Right. Now you're throwing pluses and decimals and pie signs in there. And they're totally shit. Only the strong will survive with that many acronyms. I was in a military. We have to remember acronyms, but this one makes it even tougher. I want to do one last story before we wrap up. One last story before we wrap up here. Let me see what I got here. If we got any stories for today, or we keep it for tomorrow, Tom, do you have any stories?

Papa, Papa, Papa, pop, pop. Can we tell a story maybe about why like the future might look bright? And we're not all just going to go down with the show. Oh, you know what? That's a good question when you asked that. A girl, uh, post a question in Instagram, uh, about what's going on. I posted a video and she says, and you still think the future looks bright. And I said, only for those who view themselves as leaders. Very simple.

What do you mean by that? Someone asked, a leader never sees himself or herself as a victim. Put them in any situation. Yes, it's gonna be painful season. Yes, gonna go through tough times. In our company right now, it's so funny. I started, it's not funny.

It was a 23 year old guy started selling insurance. And now I'm 44, 21 years. And we went through the experience of everybody was single and they would bring a different girlfriend or boyfriend. So you never know who was serious. Then we went through the experience of people getting engaged. Oh my God, engagement party, all this stuff, which is kind of cool, 28 years old. Then you went through, you know, marriage. Oh my God, the guy's getting married. Let's go to his wedding. Let's go to a. Then you went through, you know, marriage. Oh my God, the guy's getting married. Let's go to his wedding, let's go to a wedding.

And you went through a few divorces as well. Some didn't work out and you have to kind of go second, try to retort, try. Then people have kids and you want to celebrate. It's awesome. You're having kids, it's great. Congratulations to you. Then a second kid, then a third kid,

then you go into those parties. And then when you age, it's 44, parents start dying. That's kind of what we're going through right now and it's hard. One of our guys is mother passed away yesterday. Another one of our guys who's there from both of them there You know one of them was their day one the other guy came in a year and a half after started company His mom passed away two weeks ago And you have these conversations and this is just happening more and more and more because ages now in the forest And when you go in the force.

And when you go into the fives, other experiences are going to happen. We're going to go to kids graduations and all this. Six, you're going to have health issues. Someone had a heart attack that could happen in your 50s. Stroke, all this other stuff. Life is going to happen and it's going to happen to all of us. Whether it's a loss of a loved one, it's a bankruptcy, it's a loss of a job. You lose a business. You go through challenge and time, you go through emotional times.

It doesn't matter. It's going to happen. None of us are free from it. Not Rob, not you, not Tom, not Barry, not I, not you, but somehow some way leaders figure out a way to go through it, whether they mourn privately and they do it with people they trust and they feel safe with, whether they go through it amongst a church or somebody that they feel comfortable to go talk about it with. But you're going to go through it.

However, there's a reason why we follow leaders because they know how to handle tough times better than others. So my challenge to everybody, listen to this, instead of being overwhelmed, this is real. We're not faking it. We're not acting like this isn't real. Oh, just go read a positive thinking, but it's gonna be all right. No, it could be pretty ugly the next six, 12 months.

But if you choose to lead, it's times like this where you create a reputation where people call you a leader. They don't call you a leader during good times. They call you leaders on how you handle bad times and this is the season. So we just send the text at the beginning of the podcast, and it went to people that were part of the podcast. Okay, for the second live that's coming up at our studio,

the last one we did was a hit. We had a blast. I'll see if it that will come in. Well, I can tell you, in the first nine minutes, the VIP tickets sold out instantly. I think there's only 40 tickets left because the people that got the text messages, they were able to go do it first.

Now it's being announced to everybody. Our second live that we're gonna have will be a different schedule. We're gonna do it from seven to nine. You'll come at six o'clock, there's gonna be different things that you'll do. And then from seven to nine, we'll do the podcast, nine to nine, 30, you'll do and then from seven and nine We'll do the podcast nine to nine thirty. We'll do private Q&A Then we'll do pictures Mingling and then we'll go into the cigar lounge have conversation some of the best conversations

I had was in the cigar lounge we sat down a lot of entertainers were asking questions Hey, what about this and what about that? And we had a chance to network with everybody We are currently scheduled for the sixth to have Dave Rubin will be with us. And it is the weekend of UFC 280, seven or 283, one of them. So there's gonna be a lot of other people in town. Can't tell you what else is gonna be there,

but we got some friends we're talking about that could be there at the event as well. So if you haven't yet bought your tickets, Robert, let's make sure we put in the description and the chat and in the comment section so you can get your ticket. It will sell out ASAP. I am looking forward to seeing many of you

on April 6th with us at our new studio. Have instead that Barry, thanks for coming out. It was phenomenal, very good insight. It's a privilege to be here. I love everything you do. I follow every single one of your posts. It's like, I don't know how you find this amazing stuff. Anybody who's now following you is crazy,

but thank you for all you do, man. Hey, thanks for having me on. Yeah, this was great. Believe me, this was great. You guys are awesome. Barry, it's been a while. And just by the way, I think we had 15, 16,000 live with us today.

This is your first time watching P B D podcast. We do this weekly, two to three times a week. Join us, subscribe. I part of what we're doing. A lot of content on Instagram. If you, I am Barry Habib, just if you wanna follow, I put a lot of this short content on about these types of topics.

So it was the best place to look you up as a Twitter or Instagram. Instagram, I am Barry Habib. I am Barry Habib. It's it. H-A-B-I-B. I-B. Yeah.

Barry Habib. I am Barry Habib on Instagram. Take care everybody. Bye bye bye bye bye. her beep on Instagram. Take care everybody. Bye bye bye bye bye.