PBD Podcast - Ferrari's EV Disaster + Mamdani's Asset Seizure | PBD #807

Episode Date: May 27, 2026

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, Jeff Snider, and Humberto Boellert break down Ferrari’s EV rollout backlash, Mamdani’s “transfer ownership” proposal, Pope Leo’s warning about artificial in...telligence, Iran peace deal developments, Trump’s undefeated 118-0 primary endorsement record, Canada-Alberta succession tensions, teen summer hiring struggles, and Elon Musk ally Antonio Gracias’ massive $100 billion investment bet.---------🦁 THE VAULT 2026: AUG 31ST TO SEPT 1ST: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mZdLhD⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠🇰 KALSHI: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Did you ever think you would make it? I feel I'm supposed to take sweet victory. I know this life meant for me. Adam, what's your point? The future looks bright. My handshake is better than anything I ever signs, right? You are a one of one? My son's right.
Starting point is 00:00:19 I think I've ever said this before. All right, here we go. Business Wednesday's, a lot to talk about. Tom saw the latest model of the Ferrari that just came out for 640. He's been upset for about a couple days. Can't hold him. Had to take two days off. But Rob knew Tom wasn't happy.
Starting point is 00:00:42 So guess what Rob chose to do. Rob chose to wear a sweater today with the color of the Ferrari just to bother Tommy. You guys will see him when we showed this car. And people are wondering, is this a massive flop of a decision Ferrari made? By the way, did you guys see how the chairman, the former chairman and CEO that was the assistant to Enzo of 20 years came out on what he said about it? We have to play that clip what he said about it. it. And this kind of goes with what Porsche did last year when in the first nine months of the year
Starting point is 00:01:10 of 2025 versus 2024. In 24, their EBITA was $4 billion. In 2025, their EBITA fell from $4 billion to $40 million, 99% drop-off. And some blamed it on the, is it the TICAN and some of the decisions that they made. Of course, there's a tariff and other things. But we'll get into that. It was exactly that. And then the other part is a guy in, um, in New York City, this guy named Zoran, okay, he's kind of a big deal to Socialist and Communists, comes out and is given a speech about transferring ownership of real estate from bad landlords to noble people,
Starting point is 00:01:51 maybe even giving it to some charities. Forcing them. This is what you call not capitalism, not socialism. This is as close to communism as it gets, and we'll play that clip for you, especially New Yorkers. I know how you feel about it. This guy named Al Green. Remember Al Green that was not happy with Elon Musk and all this other stuff?
Starting point is 00:02:08 Guess what? He lost yesterday in the last couple of days. And then John Cornyn, who was there for 40 plus years, who had a massive lead on John Paxton. And all of a sudden, Trump endorses John. I'm sorry, Ken, John Paxton is a shooter, Ken. And Ken ends up beating John Cornyn by 27 points, a massive blowout. And now Ken Paxton is going to be going up against Tala Rico, if I'm not mistaken. in Tel-Iroiko's the Christian socialist
Starting point is 00:02:37 that thinks about transgender all the time. I think that's what it was when he said in one of the interviews. So that's going to be an interest one. The Pope comes out, and we have a representative on behalf of the Pope here with us, Humberto, who is going to be defending the points that the Pope made,
Starting point is 00:02:52 which, by the way, I largely, I don't even disagree with anything he said on his opinion and thoughts on AI. This is the first time where they're coming out and giving thoughts and opinions on AI, the Pope. I think it's worth talking about. People pick on him too much. much. They've been on the Pope too much. What role, Tom, you just offended 36% of our audience.
Starting point is 00:03:10 That's Catholic. And you're talking like that. I mean, this is just inappropriate right now. So we'll talk about that. That's on page 17. Oil prices. Snyder's not happy. What's going on with oil prices? There's some numbers. Right now, we're looking at $88. But the moment Tom said oil is at $88, lowest since April 17th. And March 23rd, Jeff says, I don't care. It needs to stay there and go lowered. That was specifically the words he used. Maybe he'll say more eloquently. That's right. And then in Canada, this guy named Mark Carney is not
Starting point is 00:03:42 happy because of folks in Alberta. Alberta is like the Texas of Canada. They want to separate. They want to be their own country. And they're kind of putting it in vote. And some people are wondering, is this even possible, Humberto, that this can happen or not? Who knows? Nobody knows. But we'll see. It is definitely a discussion.
Starting point is 00:03:58 And, you know, Tom's got some Canadian blood in him. So he strongly wants to give us thoughts on this. There's some pride there for him. He won't be voting for for the Canadian soccer team in the World Cup. He'll be rooting for, most likely, U.S., and a couple other countries, but in this situation, he's not happy with it. And then Trump and Iran, you know, apparently yesterday there was a tax that took place while the negotiation is going on, multiple attacks, Israel to apparently South Lebanon. If I'm not mistaken, over 100 attacks that they had, I think 31 killed. And people are wondering, why are you doing
Starting point is 00:04:32 that were in the negotiation. And then the president saying, in order to get this deal done, I need the Abram, of course, to be signed by everybody. And a few people already have, but Pakistan said absolutely not. Saudi's not too interested in doing that,
Starting point is 00:04:44 but they haven't publicly said it. There's a few others that are entertaining it. Maybe we'll talk about that. Teens, the worst summer job season ever. They can't find jobs. We'll have that to talk about. And he got Ben and Jerry's founder, who says one of the worst decisions
Starting point is 00:04:59 you can ever make is sell your company. Is he right? Is he not right? We know he's a socialist. We know he likes to go out there and protest and get arrested. He and I did a podcast together, and we actually shared the ice cream.
Starting point is 00:05:09 I don't know if you guys saw that closely. We literally, did you remember this? I was there. I shared an ice cream with a socialist and we actually had a great time together. We laughed our asses off. And I learned about the dirt cake ice cream of Ben and Jerry's,
Starting point is 00:05:20 which is ridiculous. The best. The best. And then we got a couple of the stories that we'll get into outside of that. One story I got is one of Elon's friends. I don't know if you heard about the story or not. Tom, one of Elon's friends decides to lend Elon a million dollars
Starting point is 00:05:38 when Elon needs help with Tesla and SpaceX at the beginning stages of it. SpaceX is about to go public. You know what that million dollars turned into? Do you know the number? I want you to take a while guess what it turned into. 400 million? Okay. So how about I just talk about it when we get into it?
Starting point is 00:05:55 I'll show it. It's that unbelievable of a number. And Tom, do me favor. Don't chat GBT it and search it. I just want to get your reaction. on this story when we get into it. A couple of other stories I want we get into is chip soccer ball. Is it a good idea to put a chip in a soccer ball with World Cup being around the corner?
Starting point is 00:06:11 Some people are saying, is this going to manipulate? Is it for data? I don't know if I want a chip into soccer ball or not. Who knows? But it is a topic of discussion, and we'll discuss that here in a minute. Having said that, folks, if you're running a business and you're hiring people, there is nothing more annoying than when you hire people and it doesn't go your way. Often it ends up costing you a ton of money.
Starting point is 00:06:35 Rob, go ahead and play this clip. So the average bad hire small business owner makes cost the company $17,000. The worst hires could cost you $240,000. Why? It's not just losing the employee. Many times you lose them. They're sitting next to somebody. They've already infected the negativity on them.
Starting point is 00:06:50 They draw that person. I'd imagine that person was with you for two years. And many times you knew this was not a good fit. You knew this wasn't going to be somebody that was going to work with you culturally, but you looked the other way. You didn't have a system on who to hire. You didn't have a system on what questions to ask. Your calibration wasn't in place.
Starting point is 00:07:04 So one of the best things we're going to do this here at the Vault Conference, live in front of 12,000 people, we're going to bring a few of our employees up there and show you how we calibrate quarterly on how we score people on five different metrics and why this has helped our company's retention go higher as well as grow exponentially in ways we've never experienced before. And this will only happen at the Vault Conference
Starting point is 00:07:27 that we host once a year, 12,000 people from 60-plus countries will be attending the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, August 31st through September 3rd, going through this 296-page manual together. And if you haven't yet registered, click on a link above or below. Get register. You may want to bring your team with you. It'll be a very special event this year.
Starting point is 00:07:47 Looking forward to seeing you there. There you go. Go to vault 226.com. Again, vault 226.com speaker, Stephen Bartlett from the Diary to CEO. He'll be there. Logan Paul will be there to talk about how to create a brand. then we'll have Joe Montana and Jerry Rice simultaneously interview on how to find a running mate
Starting point is 00:08:04 when you get a running meet, what happens to you? And last but not least, Dan Martel, author of Buyback Your Time, who is exited multiple companies, will discuss how to leverage AI today. Go to Vault 2026.com, get registered, cannot wait to see all of you guys there. With that being said,
Starting point is 00:08:19 let's get right into the first story. Ferrari, two days ago, announces their latest car, Luce. And when I saw this car, at first I thought it was a spoof. I thought it was a joke, but it was real. Rob, if you want to play this clip here while you're playing this clip, I'll kind of give some thoughts on it.
Starting point is 00:08:36 $640,000 to get this car, okay? The interior design is by the former chief design officer of Apple, head of design, John I, which worked with Steve Jobs. So that's a big part of the story. 330-mile range that it goes. Zero to 60, I think, 2.5 miles, 2.5 seconds. In 0 to 100, I think it's 6.8 seconds. Top speed, maybe 194, if I'm remember this, numbers correctly.
Starting point is 00:09:02 And it's 100% EV. This is not the SF 90 that they came up with, which was a hybrid. This is 100% EV. And a market is watching the saying, was this the right move? Was this the wrong move? You know, it looks like an IA. There was a bunch of criticism. Why would I buy this?
Starting point is 00:09:19 Instead of buying this, I can buy 10 Bitcoins. Instead of buying this, you know, I can buy, you know, 10 Teslas or 7 Tesla. or eight Teslas. Instead of buying this, I can go do something else with this. Why would I want to buy a Ferrari like this at this price point? Lots of criticism. Tom, as somebody that's owned Ferraris for decades yourself, and you've restored one of them. If I'm not mistaken, back in the days, you restored one of the Ferraris that you had. That's correct. And you currently... 89 through 28. And Tom's daily drive right now as a Ferrari. Tom drives his Ferrari on a daily basis here. Tom, what is your opinion on this? Was this a good move or bad move? This, I don't think
Starting point is 00:09:52 is a good move at all. You look back at the record recently with Ferrari hybrids. And recently, right here at Boka and in Palm Beach, we had Cavalino. So not too many months ago, there was a wonderful Cavalino looking at all these rare historic Ferraris and people celebrating the history of the brand. And there was a lot of talk there about the SF90 and the 296. The SF 90, people were up there talking about cataclysmic loss of value, that the depreciation was incredible because they couldn't get people to buy it. And it was not because the higher-end cars, you'll buy them, you'll keep them as the ones that are limited production, say 1,000 units. People keep them collect them. Well, guess what? The 296 hybrid also had a hard time, and it's been discontinued.
Starting point is 00:10:41 So the Ferrari audience has spoken about these. And the people that had SF90 or 296 suffering depreciation of the cars. It's beyond what normally they experience. And I think this was a bad idea, but I think it was already on the product plan. And Pat, you've consulted. We've consulted with companies. You know, sometimes we ask them, why did you do that? Well, we've been planning it for three years. All the effort went into it. We just went through with it. And it's like, but if you knew it was a bad idea, well, we had invested so much. We just kind of stayed with the plan and hoped. You've heard those kind of words, right? Of course. Well, I think that's what happened. I think this was on the product plan and it went forward.
Starting point is 00:11:19 That's a very good point. I want to go to this, Tom, the former chairman of Ferrari, who was Enzo's assistant in his 20s, later on becomes the CEO, Rob, if you want to go to the clip of the Ferrari former CEO giving us thoughts on this, they asked them a question, and they said, what do you think about it?
Starting point is 00:11:38 And you can tell Italians, they're not very good poker players. If they don't like you, you can tell. If they're angry, you can tell. If they have a reaction, you can tell. This was him on when he was asked about the luce. Go ahead, Rob. You can say, what I think, will do you know, the carrieu.
Starting point is 00:11:55 It's risk the destruction of a myth. I me disfache much. But we'll... I hope that we'll... I hope that's a caroling, at that this is a machine. This is a surement a machine that, at least the Chinese, don't copierreary.
Starting point is 00:12:10 The last one just did it. By the way, I don't go back. Go back to it, by the way. He says, this is certainly a machine that the Chinese at least won't copy from us. They won't need to, meaning the product is such a bad product. Now, Tom, to people that don't know who he is, how important was he to the Ferrari brand? This is Luca Montezimolo, and Luca was absolutely critical to the brand. He was, the return of Ferrari to F1 Glory with the signing of Michael Schumacher and then five
Starting point is 00:12:45 consecutive championships. They haven't won a championships of 2007. He was kind of, you know, moved out by the DEI crowd. And this guy is a legend. And I think that was reserved. For Luca, that was a reserve reaction because he could have just gone off. And he knows what's gone on at Cavalino. He knows what the market has been saying. There's no secrets here. And this guy, this guy, I put him in one of the top 20 auto executives, of all time. So he's a heavywood. In the modern era. Not like Henry Ford. Now, let me ask you a question, Tom. You're running Ferrari today.
Starting point is 00:13:21 You're the board. You're the developer. You're the designer. You see him saying some like that. How is Ferrari right now in, we've been to their headquarters multiple times? We've toured the headquarters. We've driven Ferraris in their headquarters multiple times. I think we just went there a few months ago. You and I took a tour
Starting point is 00:13:37 together in 2015 and we walked right by him and didn't know it. Kim told me later. Did you know Luca walk right by you guys? Stop it. When we were there in 15. Correct. When you and I took a picture of the very front door and we had Parari's shirts on, he walked out. And Kim says, that was Luca. How does Ferrari react to it? Go to their home office. How are they reacting to this? Okay. You've got the DEI folks. You know, we have to do this. It's modern. We have to keep going forward to all the progressives, right?
Starting point is 00:14:05 In any crowd is progressives. And then you've got the diehards whose blood is boiling. I think I literally believe there's like a split board. There's the traditionalists that say, hey, hybrid technology is here. We can do things hybrid. We can do things here. But our buyer doesn't want it. Look, the SFI didn't sell. This didn't sell.
Starting point is 00:14:25 We need to follow the consumer. Their blood is boiling. Meanwhile, on the other side, people that were like forcing it, and you're seeing Porsche, Ford, Honda, all back off of EV plans in a big way. Billion dollar ride-offs, multi-billion dollar. I want to get on that point. If we see the numbers, you know what I mean? Ferrari, they make and
Starting point is 00:14:45 deliver 13,000 cars that's all they do. This is $600,000 EV, all right? How many units are they going to do? This is not a Jaguar level of like we're going to cut all the lines and just with the electric one. This is an experiment. I was watching the video
Starting point is 00:15:01 yesterday with her name is oh my God, I forgot her name. She does Cleo Adams. She interviewed the guy who designed the interior, the guy that used to work her at Apple. And I really like some of the design philosophies that were used inside the car. I think is revolutionary, going away from screens, having tactile functions. I think there's a lot of technology that's
Starting point is 00:15:23 going to be inside of the car. I think the interior of the car is a work of art. I can't see much about the exterior. It looks like a Ferrari ate an SUV. It's the ugliest thing. But, you know, that's some people will like it. I think at $600,000, if they move 100 units, some people will you the cool factor on it. Maybe for the average Ferrari owners that want, you know, they want a mid-mounted V8. It's not going to be their cup of tea. But I don't think they're going to lose money on this. Like, if you look at Ferrari, they mostly sell T-shirts.
Starting point is 00:15:53 How many people actually buy a Ferrari? You know what I mean? Well, Rob, run a poll. Run a pole. Have you ever owned a Ferrari before? Have you ever owned a Ferrari before? Jeff, do you have any thoughts on this? No, I mean, I'm not a car guy by any means.
Starting point is 00:16:05 But when I first saw that picture, I thought it was a Tesla. It really did. immediate reaction. The immediate reaction was like it's a Tesla. Yeah, so it's interesting. Ah, panabla. When you look at this, when you, Tom, let me ask you question here. This is an interesting one that I didn't know.
Starting point is 00:16:19 Can you tell me, Tom, what do you think is Ferrari's EBITA percentage? I want you to think about this and I want the audience to guess what is Ferrari's EBITA. Okay. When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my out of office has a forever setting. An IG Private Wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business,
Starting point is 00:16:52 your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivatewealth.com. The Madamy Holmes bike for brain health supporting Baycrest returns on May 31 for its fifth anniversary with a new start and finish at the Aga Con. Museum. Join thousands of cyclists as we take over the DVP and Gardner Expressway in support of dementia research and brain health. Riders of all abilities are welcome and both regular bikes and e-bikes can participate.
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Starting point is 00:17:50 And people are either productive or dead weight. It's my first day of work, and I need to make a big impression. Were you just checking me out? No. It's too bad. I see at least 15 ladies I need to talk to before my beta block wears off. My co-workers don't take me seriously. It's not a human.
Starting point is 00:18:07 It's just a piece of meat. Someone bring a gurney. Hey, y'all. Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair. Ever order furniture online and wonder what if? Like, what if it doesn't hold up? That sofa was four days old. You should have ordered from Wayfair.
Starting point is 00:18:24 With Wayfair, there's no what if. Just style you love and quality you can trust. Visit Wayfair.ca. Wayfair, every style, every home. I thought Barri Zibita was two times the auto average. I thought they were up at like 16%. And auto average was like... Are you ready?
Starting point is 00:18:41 Are you ready for this? Ferrari Zibita is 35 to 40%. Okay, is that clothes and licensing? or just cars? Tom, just purely EBITUS, 35 to 40%. Clothes and licensing is nothing. It's the cars that mainly brings the revenue. 39.1% is their EBIT.
Starting point is 00:18:57 By the way, you know who number two is? Number two historically in EBTA, most profitable automotive companies in the world. You know what number two is? Toyota. Porsche, 25 to 30%. Number three is Lamborghini. And guess who number four is?
Starting point is 00:19:10 Guess who number four is? This is where it gets interesting. Number four is Tesla. Then it's everybody else. So meaning when Ferrari, like, And then when you think about Porsche, the greatest day-to-day supercar ever produced is the Porsche 9-11 Turbo West. It's not even close. It can drive it every day.
Starting point is 00:19:27 I will for the rest of my – as long as they don't go woke, you will always find a Turbo 9-11 Turboist in my garage for the rest of my life. Even when I'm not driving nowadays, I only drive once or twice a week. And for Porsche, they produce 311,000 cars. Tom, you own a Ferrari and you own a Porsche, right? And I owned an SF-90 before, and I've owned a few different cars. but specifically when you were talking about SF90, we went through the process together when I was trying to sell it, if you remember that.
Starting point is 00:19:53 So there was a personal experience when I'm talking to you and I'm saying, hey, what the hell is going on with this SF90? A thousand horsepower, incredible car. You can go 200 miles an hour. It doesn't feel like you're even pushing at 200. Not that we would ever do such a thing because I always drive 65 miles an hour. You don't break the laws.
Starting point is 00:20:09 Or be texting at the same time on a turn. Never. Never. Never. Never. So you wonder if they watched on what happened with Porsche when they went to produce certain cars that the audience simply didn't want. Do you know when they, by the way, the profile of a Porsche driver versus a Ferrari driver, here's some interesting fact. Do you know what the average Ferrari driver age is?
Starting point is 00:20:31 The average Ferrari driver age. Give me the age. I thought it was 55 now. 51 years old. Yeah. Okay. Porsche is around the same age. But the average income earner that buys a Porsche is making $370 to $500,000 to $500,000 a year.
Starting point is 00:20:44 The average Ferrari driver makes a million to $1,000. 30 million dollars a year. The average guy that buys a Ferrari. What percentage of Porsche drivers are males versus females? This one is tricky. What percentage of Porsche drivers? I would say 95%. Okay. So Porsche is 85%. Okay. What do you think it is with Ferrari? Male to female. It's a crazy number. It's not the same? No, it's a crazy number. What do you think the percentage of male to female drivers are in Ferrari? I don't know. I saw a lot of women driving Roma. Let's see it. I want to see it from Tom because I was shell-shocked.
Starting point is 00:21:22 It's an extreme. It's one of the two extremes. So what do you think it is? Well, this is a wild guess based on just looking around, but the Roma has moved a lot. And I think it's like 80-20. Tom, 98% of Ferrari buyers are men. 98% like they know their customers.
Starting point is 00:21:42 Like if they hire D.I.% and they say, what can we do? This is kind of like Romney-Henry. the consultant that says, stop going after Obama so strong, after Benghazi, after the second debate and start talking about salads. You look mean. You look mean. Talk about single women and they're like, that's why he lost the debate.
Starting point is 00:21:58 If they try to win over customers, that's not their customers, it's a big mistake. I hope Ferrari stays put and gets clear on what the customers are and just stays right there. As Tom described and the profiles, like, Ferrari's a religion. You know what I mean? Some people swear by Ferraris. They will buy cars. I know a guy. He just bought a car, you know, million dollars,
Starting point is 00:22:19 and he's going to put it away for posterity. Like, he's never going to drive it. No. He's just going to put it away to save it for the future. Like, Porsche, you know, I shout out to the PCM, the Porsche Cup here. Those guys, if you show up on any car that's not air cool, they wouldn't even talk to you. Like, that's how resistant there to change, you know.
Starting point is 00:22:38 But isn't that an element of progressivism thinking about this bigger? Like, you know, Bud Light. They brought in that consultant for Bud Light. What was his name? Dylan Mulvaney? Yeah, we need to change our audience. There's this element of progressivism that says we don't need to listen to our customer because they're old, they're backwards, straight white males. We need to tell our customers what they need to do.
Starting point is 00:22:58 I think you've seen this time and time again, not just Ferrari, but a lot of other businesses, a cracker barrel. Oh, my God. It is true. They stop listening to their core business and say, the element of progressivism is we need to tell people what they need to think. That is so dumb. That is so dumb. It is. By the way, a Porsche produces, what's the number, 311,000?
Starting point is 00:23:19 They went from $4 billion in EBITA, the first nine months of 2024 to $40 million in 2025. The CEO immediately said, we're not producing 311,000 Porsches. That's what they produced per year. He dropped it down to $250, if I'm not mistaken. They lost $784 million due to tariffs in 24. They had to write off a bunch of things that they bought with AI, technology chips, all this other stuff that was a pure write-off. They came out with a car, Tycan, what was it called?
Starting point is 00:23:46 Tycan, which was one of the biggest flops. First year sold, $32,000. Second year sold, $43,000. Third year dropped 49%. Then it dropped another 40% or 30%. And these cars, you buy for $150,000 to $200,000. Within a year to two years, you all have lost 50% of valuation of the car. Within two years.
Starting point is 00:24:07 So I've seen these cars. They're pretty nice. I drove one. They don't turn. It wasn't a Porsche anymore. It was a sled. You put your foot down, it just went, but there was nothing to it. There was style to it, but it didn't move.
Starting point is 00:24:20 It didn't turn. It was the most horrible driving experience for people who enjoy driving. Know your customer. That is the key. Know your customer. This goes back in history. There's a guy named Sergio Zimon that was part of the New Coke decision. He pulled back on it and said, we never should have done that.
Starting point is 00:24:35 We never should have talked ourselves into believing that there was another hill to climb for our customers. He wrote a book called The End of Marketing as we know it. Sergio Ziman, you know, if he's still around, we should get him on. I quickly want to defend Porsche because this is not only their bad decisions. They had tremendous pressure from the EU from Brussels, you know, because they have this fleet limits, so they need to have some EV cars. The funniest example of this is Aston Martin. I know if you guys heard the story.
Starting point is 00:25:01 They made a little like a smart car to offset their CEO emissions. So that's one thing. And the situation in Germany is not good. the price of energy, and you know about this, Jeff, the price of energy there makes any industry not profitable. This is a 430 horsepower, Aston Martin. Go to that, Rob, what you just had up right now? A minute ago?
Starting point is 00:25:20 This is what regulation does, Pat. They had to make this. They made this because of regulation. Because of regulations to break down the average of the fleet. Wait a minute. That car has 430 horsepower. Oh, it's crazy. I mean, that's a suicide mission if you drive that car.
Starting point is 00:25:35 That's exactly right. You hit a deer or a 40-pound dog. Let me see the photos, Rob. Go a little bit more to the photos, aside from just that? Wow, that is an ugly car. Wow. They call it the signet, which is... Just for regulations.
Starting point is 00:25:51 They had to have one car in the fleet. It is what it is. Like, we're advertising for these guys, so let's just see if it's going to work. You guys are going to go by the door now. Let's go to the next story. So here's Mom Dani. Comes out with a story in front of people,
Starting point is 00:26:01 he's standing up there, and he's trying to sell that if you're a bad landlord, You know what we're going to do to you? We're going to transfer your ownership. Wait, did he just, did he say transfer of ownership? He did. What do you mean to who? Do you mean you're going to force us to sell?
Starting point is 00:26:17 No, no, transfer of ownership, to who? To non-proper? There's no way. This has to be AI. Well, here's Mamdani for you. Go forward. Through our new citywide campaign, fix the city, we will focus on the worst landlords in New York City.
Starting point is 00:26:33 Listen, it's coming up right now. When necessary, we will take aggressive legal action to remove negligent owners and property managers. And for buildings that have suffered chronic neglect, we will work to transfer ownership to responsible stewards. Wait, go back again, Rob. Go back 10 seconds, please. Yeah, right there.
Starting point is 00:26:55 And for buildings that have suffered chronic neglect, we will work to transfer ownership to responsible stewards. That's, if you've ever read Atlas Shrug. stewards that include community land trusts, nonprofits, non-profits, or even the tenants themselves. Look at that smile. Oh, Lenin would be so proud. Stalin would be so proud.
Starting point is 00:27:27 Karl Marx would be so proud. These people would be so proud. Let me read this to you. The plan includes a number of other lifelines to struggling landlords of affordable housing, such as making it easier to finance property improvements, secure tax exemptions, and clear their housing code variations. The city is also launching a $5 million loan program to landlords to help pay tenants overdue rent and avoid evictions. So they're paying you the rent, and that's exactly the step towards communism.
Starting point is 00:27:52 Roughly 300,000 apartments financed through the city's housing agencies are potentially eligible for the rent increase. Once they are empty, along with other assistance, this is about a third of the city's overall rent-stabilized housing stock, but includes large affordable housing owners like related. Jeff, when you hear this message that he's given, how do you process this information? It's not surprising, first of all. But, I mean, look, it's a typical playbook, right? I mean, government policies created this mess to begin with. You're not allowed to build in New York City, so there's a housing supply shortage.
Starting point is 00:28:22 There's rent control, which means you're not allowed to price anything based on market, which means that properties necessarily, I mean, property owners necessarily have to skimp on repairs and everything. And what ends up happening? You end up with a housing crisis that government then comes in and says, we're magically going to fix it. So you create the problem so that you can fix it, and the solution ends up being collective control. which is playbook as old as progressivism, communism, whatever you want to call it. It's all basically the same thing.
Starting point is 00:28:48 The real key here is when you give government authority, who gets to decide who's a bad landlord and who's a good landlord and what standards are we going to use? And how are those standards going to change over time and how are they going to be used as political leverage? I mean, because that's ultimately where all these things go. Once government comes in and takes over control, the results are not positive.
Starting point is 00:29:09 Do people not remember the push? for a public housing in the 50s and 60s into the 1970s, and how that actually ended up in New York City, most of all. Public housing was a nightmare and a mess. Why would this be any different? Tom, thoughts. So I have a lot of thoughts here, and I'm going to dive down here. And so if you need to stop me, please stop me.
Starting point is 00:29:30 So let me tell you how this works. Because I looked into the things he's setting up, and I looked into his words, and they didn't like hand out, you know, a PDF of their playbook, but they basically told you. They have a board that will collect complaints, Pat, from renters. And guess what? No complaint too small.
Starting point is 00:29:48 They'll build it up and say, oh, this bad landlord, Humberto, the terrible slumlord of Jamaica Queens. You know, he, 700 complaints. And you'll hear words like that, Pat. That'll be the first thing. Some of those will be, you know, hey, we had a snowstorm. They didn't shovel the driveway soon enough. Didn't shove over the front door. No complaint too small.
Starting point is 00:30:10 stack of complaints. Number one. Number two, they will then go into seizure. And then what that's transferring ownership to a responsible steward. Yeah, that's just code for seizure of assets, ladies and gentlemen, seizure of assets. They will seize that, oh, we'll give it to a responsible party or a nonprofit. Those nonprofits will be PACs. There'll be Democrat PACs. But now let me ask you a question. On Monday, all these people were paying the landlord rent. and the landlord couldn't afford to both pay the property tax and pay taxes to the city because he's operating a commercial enterprise called renting a asset,
Starting point is 00:30:49 and then also pay J.P. Morgan for the loan that he has on the building. He had a hard time doing that and putting brand new granite kitchens in for a bunch of low-income people. He can't do that. So how is it that on Tuesday, Pat, when they say, evil Humberto had 700 complaints, and we're now transferring it to the low-income trust of New York. How are they going to do it?
Starting point is 00:31:15 Pat, this is what happens. Now the low-income trust and the city, you're the VP of Commercial Real Estate in New York, Pat. You are now. And I'm Mandami, and I walk in. And I'm like, you know those loans you got? Ten of those loans are now under the stewardship of the state of New York. city in New York. Pat, you need to reduce these payments or reduce the interest rates.
Starting point is 00:31:40 What do you mean? It says, or we're just going to write this down by force? Because the loan is still intact. The loan is the last survivor. And you'll have Mandami and the Islamist attempting to use you know what law to say that interest charging interest, which is antithetical to Islamists, they're going to put the pressure on the banks. And Mandamist, He made comments about the banks and the Jews that run them, or mostly Jews that run them. So you are now going to have the loans cratered. Now then, the stewards own the property and are collecting the rent. They lower the rent for people, but they no longer have the large payments, Pat.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Now they've got tens of millions and billions of dollars because the city has now seized it. They suspend the taxes on it. They collect the rent on it. And then all that money gets filtered out to DSA, and they do it at Philadelphia. they do it at the next city. This is a Marxist step-by-step playbook, and what people need to pay attention to is just because you seize it,
Starting point is 00:32:42 you can't pay all those things unless you kill the loan with the bank or you force them by force to renegotiate it down. And now you have a profitable housing, money going to the Dems. Do you think that circle of life, to me, looks different than operate in illegal daycare and then skim off the top,
Starting point is 00:33:00 back to the politicians and some for yourself? What a brilliant strength. It's not. This is what's going to happen. It sounds brilliant, but the down, the market check on it is you can't ever meet expectations. No, no. Listen, brilliant strategy to me, this isn't a playbook we would ever do. We're capitalists. But what a brilliant strategy to sell the folks in the back that are rooting for it. Yes, I'm going to give it to nonprofits or maybe to some of the tenants. What is that about? That's like, hey, I'm going to take from the rich and I'm going to give to the poor. Mamdani is officially Robin Hood. What a hero. What an incredible guy doing it to the financial capital of the world.
Starting point is 00:33:40 The number one city in America when it comes down to economy. If you can do it to that city, what other cities are you able to do that to? You can do it anywhere. You'll fund Philadelphia and you'll do the next one. This is how modern socialism looks like, right? The Jack of it magazine, one of the biggest publications on the left. Everyone, you know, like there is somebody on the intellectual side of the left. I'm saying left and intellectual very lightly.
Starting point is 00:34:01 they're saying this market socialism, what they did with the daycares, what they're doing with rent, what they're doing with everything. They're using these mechanisms to stay in power perpetually, like they're cash cows. And as Jeff said, like this is not going to work,
Starting point is 00:34:16 but they're going to milk it until it doesn't work. Of course. You know what I mean? Of course. And I don't know. I'm very worried about it. If it works kind of well, you're going to see this in Philadelphia.
Starting point is 00:34:25 You're going to see this in Minnesota. New York will fund it guys. Happening in those cities. timing is so phenomenal. If I had a chart right now to write, you know, if we had like the, what is that board that we use? The vibe board.
Starting point is 00:34:38 I think, Rob, in a future, let's just have the Vi board here from any time we want to jump on on and write, let's do that. Justin, let's make a note of that. The modern version of Glenn Beck. Yeah, yeah. If we had the vibe board, just to show it. But to show that this model of what you're doing
Starting point is 00:34:53 and how to go about doing it, what the step process becomes. Like, at first, they're going to say, well, the current economy to the, like my whole thing with AOC having a shot at winning in 2028, I've been saying this and I get a lot of Menex with people being upset. Why would you say that? Well, because I think it really has a shot. Why?
Starting point is 00:35:11 Because AI is going to do what it's going to do. And, you know, whether some people are thinking are going to take jobs or it's not going to take jobs, it's impacting the economy. So Tom and I were talking last time on the podcast. What's the best case scenario where unemployment will be in 2028? He said 5 to 7%. I said, what's the worst case? He said 10 plus percent.
Starting point is 00:35:29 If that were to happen, if home prices don't come down, the average home price right now in California is $906,000. In Florida, I think it's $3.40, $350, if I'm not mistaken, something like that, 337, you can look it up. The average home price by state, yeah, we're at 376. Can you go 344 Central Florida? Can you type in California, the average home price in California? So if you type in California average home price, 776, 854,
Starting point is 00:35:56 story came out last week that it's 906. how the hell can the average person afford an 8-54 home you can't chat bianco yesterday was here on the podcast was running for governor and he said when he moved from utah to l a way he worked construction within one year he could afford to buy a house you're not going to be able to do that today so all of these things are going to be used as leverage for them to say this is why you do need government's help so the more you're seeing momdani saying momdani is simply setting one person up it's like that volleyball player. You know that guy from C-San that's all over the place?
Starting point is 00:36:31 The phenomenal gay volleyball player that's just very, very good at what he does. And he makes his move at the end when he, you know, slams the ball. Mamdani is simply setting him up and then AOC is coming. AOC, Mamdani is setting up and look at this. AOC is going to come and boom.
Starting point is 00:36:49 Hang on a second. This is not even the one. Rob, I don't know which clip you found. But there is one that he gets set up and then he comes and crushes it. That's what's going to happen in 2028. And so my worry is for people to have enough common sense, boom, look at that. Guy's a freaking stud on how he's not a stud like that. I'm just saying he's a stud the way he plays volleyball. I don't want to confuse me.
Starting point is 00:37:08 You make a really good point. Underneath all of the mannerisms and everything he does is a phenomenal athlete. And if people think that underneath everything they see on the surface from AOC, there isn't a phenomenal politician. She is. They're making the same mistake. Yeah, yeah. If only the paranoid survive, and right now if you're not seeing what's happening,
Starting point is 00:37:26 they're doing it to the biggest thing. What do you do if you want to take a gang out? What do you want to do if you want to scare the living crap of everybody in the gang? Who do you go after first? The boss. The boss. And who's the boss of financial capital in America? New York.
Starting point is 00:37:38 That's exactly who they're going after. If they can get New York City, they can come to a city near you. Now let's go to the next story. The Pope. The Pope comes out and drops a message about AI. And it's not what you think. But the Pope comes out and says, issues a warning of the Pope's a warning of the people who says, a warning about AI and autonomous weapons. Is this all the 13 points in this one minute and
Starting point is 00:38:02 19 seconds, Rob, or is this just something he's saying there? Just something he's saying that. Okay. I do have the 13 points. Okay, go to that and then we'll go to the 13 points. Here's the Pope, the leader of roughly, what is it, 1.4 billion people. Amberto, am I saying it correctly? And growing. And growing one point four. They've been flat last couple years, but they've been grown the last 12 months on what they're doing. But here's the Pope. Go ahead, Rob. Official intelligence needs to be disarmed. The word is strong, I know, but deliberately chosen because this moment needs words capable of attracting attention, awakening consciences, and indicating paths forward for humanity.
Starting point is 00:38:43 The church has long been working for nuclear disarmament, aware that every great technical power can affect people's lives, and so must be a question. accompanied by adequate moral discernment and public control. Nuclear disarmament remains a service to peace and the dignity of the human family. In a similar sense, artificial intelligence now demands to be disarmed, freed from logics that turn it into an instrument of domination. AI needs to be disarmed, said by one of the most powerful men in the world, the Pope. and here's what he said. I'll read them.
Starting point is 00:39:24 And I want to get your thoughts. Comment on the common section of what he's saying here with the points. I think he's making very good points, but I want to open it up, and I hope there's some disagreements here to see different angles. Number one, AI must serve humanity, not replace it. Okay, common sense. Number two, human intelligence is unique. The Pope argued AI can process information but cannot truly possess conscious,
Starting point is 00:39:45 empathy, moral judgment, wonder, or a soul. Number three, big tech concentration is dangerous. against a handful of companies controlling the future of intelligence and data. Number four, AI needs strong regulation. He called for democratic oversight and international guardrails instead of self-regulation by tech companies. Some people would disagree with that. Many would disagree with that in the tech industry.
Starting point is 00:40:10 AI could destroy jobs at massive scale. He warned governments to prepare for labor disruption and protect workers displaced by automation. Six, workers must not be treated like machines. he repeatedly connected AI to worker dignity, similar to our Popolio, the 13, addressed the Industrial Revolution in the 1890s. Number seven, AI generated misinformation threatens democracy. He warned about deepfakes manipulation propaganda and the collapse of trust in truth itself. Okay, we know that. Eight, AI weapons could become uncontrollable.
Starting point is 00:40:42 One of the strongest warnings about autonomous warfare and AI direct-to-weapon systems. Number nine, children's development must be protected. that he warned AI and screen could damage critical thinking, emotional development, attention span, and interpersonal growth in young people. Number 10, AI must not become a new religion. Number 11. Algorithms are not neutral. He argued AI systems inherit the values and biases of the people who build them.
Starting point is 00:41:07 True. 12 human relationships matter more than efficiency. And last, banally, society must choose between power and dignity. The Pope framed AI as a civilizational crossroads. Humberto, your thoughts on this? I think it makes some, and it's very funny that the last Pope during a big, you know, the Industrial Revolution, his name was Leo as well. I think he makes some very valid points. For example, the morality part to AI, you can't rely on AI for morality.
Starting point is 00:41:38 You have all this San Francisco, some of them, they're not my favorite people, injecting their moral standards to AI. You know what I mean? Creating new religions. There's a few AI-based religions that are this. Some of the bigger points, I think them, you know, not having AI control weapons. I think human life, I might be on the wrong, but human life is too valuable for an algorithm to decide between life or death. What else does he say? Like, AI must serve humanity.
Starting point is 00:42:09 I think that's a main point right here. Like we can let AI, we can get to the point. And it's very possible that we'll get to the point that we start serving AI. I don't know if you guys seen there's an app with AI can hire you to do human jobs. We're getting to the point and we're getting very close. Now, about the oversight part, it's just so difficult. Personally, I think we're in an arms race with every country. So if we get moral and stop doing something, somebody else will do it.
Starting point is 00:42:39 Who disagrees? Who disagrees with the Pope? Do you disagree with him? Do you agree with them, Tom? Can I reread one of his quotes? Yeah, of course. Calling for prudence, rigorous evaluation, and at times a slower. pace in adopting the internet does not mean opposing its progress. Quote, it is essential that the use of the internet, especially when it touches our public and our children and public goods and fundamental rights, be guided by clear criteria and
Starting point is 00:43:02 effective oversight. You see what I just did? I took two quotes and I removed AI and used the word internet. So I think that there's some things he's saying that maybe have some merit and some time for consideration, but every technological leap has included this. Now, I will tell you that AI is very significant. I believe we need certain guardrails on it, and we're seeing what happened. And I think having the sensing technologies out there to make sure that you're not plagiarizing
Starting point is 00:43:30 or you're not cheating on an exam or that those photos that you created of your political opponent are fake, I think that there's an underlying point that the Pope is making that everybody else is making, like about deep banks. Like if we think we have enemies now, Pat, just wait another year for things to advance. You and me are going to be shown in pictures, dating back to the 80s, saying terrible things, doing terrible things. And on that day, it'll be very important that the opposite technologies are out there to ensure that we can say, wait a minute, wait a minute, that's fake. And I think the Pope is making good points about that stuff. But there's also a, here we go again. Jeff.
Starting point is 00:44:07 By the way, before I come to you, I'm going to come to you, Rob, I want you to see this year. Pull up the two things I just sent you. One is the tweet by David Sacks, which I shared. He says, how are job postings for software engineers rising rapidly despite agents automated coding? Because there's far more code to manage than ever before. We're already seen a 14x year over year increasing GitHub comments and it's accelerating. Click on that link, Rob, to make that image bigger.
Starting point is 00:44:34 Watch this. And GitHub is the storage of a new program. The baby blue, the light blue, it's indeed job posting software engineering. years, the dark blue is overall in the job posting. So any job than that. So you notice the number of jobs specifically for software engineers is skyrocketing back up. It went down March 25, May 25. And then all of a sudden it's like, no, we need these guys. Now, it's too early to tell. It's like when they start, hey, GLP-1s, you know, three-year research shows it's so good for you. We don't have a 20-year research. We don't have a 10-year research.
Starting point is 00:45:10 We don't have a 30-year research. There was a book that came out about steroids. 40, 50 years ago, it was called the steroids Bible. And they had edition 1, 2, 3, 4. Studies show that it's very good for you. Well, you need decades and decades of research to be able to see. So we don't know yet. But this highlights that it's not as bad as people think it.
Starting point is 00:45:26 It's actually creating new jobs. Having said that, Rob, go to the clip about David Sachs. What he said would have happened if Kamala Harris was in with data centers and AI. Go ahead. AI, I think we're really lucky that he's the president who's in the president who's in the White House when this AI revolution is happening. I mean, doing old history, sacks, what would happen if Kamala Ding Dong was in right now and we'd have like no data centers?
Starting point is 00:45:49 We'd have no data centers and they'd be using AI to censor us and they'd be promoting DEI values through AI that was in the Biden executive order. President Trump just wants the country to win and be successful. And he doesn't have these like dumer neuroses about it. That's not to say we don't support any regulation at all, but we should have specific solutions for specific problems, as opposed to being cowering in fear over this and just try not call to all progress. So that's the complete opposite.
Starting point is 00:46:19 So there's a very big, there's a big argument right now between two sides on what could happen. Jeff, what are your thoughts on this? I don't necessarily think there's two sides to it. I think there's a ton of nuance here. On the economic part of it, I mean, what Tom showed, exactly, you pointed out with the internet. The internet, people were worried about the internet. I mean, people have been talking about robot takeover since the Civil War. every new technological wave that we go through
Starting point is 00:46:41 unleashes a period of almost mass hysteria and it's understandable because the world completely changes however on the economic side of it what you're seeing with the programmers is exactly what we should expect from AI in the economics it makes people more productive the more productive people and businesses become the more activity we have the more economic growth we have
Starting point is 00:47:01 that's the good side of AI now go on the complete opposite side the politics side of it you know we've got a bunch of autonomous robot thoughts running around, how easy would it be to arm one and then have complete plausible deniability when you say, go murder my neighbor? There's definitely some guardrails, as Tom said, that needs to be put up here. However, there's another argument there, too. How do you regulate that?
Starting point is 00:47:21 How do we get together and say, we're going to make sure that AI can never be armed? I'm sorry, you can't do that. That's just impractical. So there's a whole ton of nuance here. It's not one side or another. What is that? And who defines that? Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:47:36 And then, right. And once you, what is hate speech? And all of a sudden the government, guess what? New president? Oh, yeah, we're going to set up, we're going to set up a government board. It doesn't have an opinion anymore. That's hate speech. We're going to set up a government board that decides what qualifies as bad AI.
Starting point is 00:47:50 And then that government board is going to be taken over by various different factions through time. And the definitions are always going to change. So, I mean, there is a number of issues that need to be worked out. But they're going to be solved not by from the, not from the top down, but from the bottom up. I agree with both. Like, I couldn't agree more with Davey said. David Sacks. Like the thing is,
Starting point is 00:48:08 can you imagine a scenario where this technology is emerging it was under another administration? The level of censorship and the level of like virtual signaling that it would be coded into AI. And this is forever because it's generative. Like whatever seed you put in there,
Starting point is 00:48:24 it just drags on forever. You know, you can't undo things there. You can always progress forward. And when it comes to the loss, I don't know if you guys know the Asimov, loss of robotics. Yeah. But Isaac Asimov, a robot?
Starting point is 00:48:36 Yeah. on I-Robot. Like, a robot can never hurt a human being. I don't know if we can put guardrails in, but we should have some basic laws and understanding that we should agree on. You know what is crazy. Think about it this way.
Starting point is 00:48:50 This is one way to describe it to the average person so they don't panic. If you live in the state of Florida, what percentage of people in Florida, Rob, carry, have a license to carry? What percentage of people in Florida have a license? Matter of fact, type in the top five biggest states with license to carry.
Starting point is 00:49:07 Well, right now in Florida, you need a license to carry. It's constitutional carry. Perfect. So let's just look at this. Top five states, Florida, the clear leader with 2.5 million active residents,
Starting point is 00:49:17 concealed weapon license, permits are valid for seven years and offer broad reciprocity. Texas, more than 1.2 million. Pennsylvania, 1.28 million, Georgia, 1.1 million, and then you get Alabama, which, by the way,
Starting point is 00:49:28 we're in the state with the most people licensed to carry. How often do you go to restaurants and you panic? Never. How often do you go to restaurants? Do you know what are the chance? of a person at a restaurant carrying a gun with them.
Starting point is 00:49:40 When I'm going to a restaurant, I'm carrying. When we go, we're carrying all the time. So how worried are you? Are people, emotional human beings? Very. People are emotional human beings. Maybe they get into an argument. Maybe they had a bad day.
Starting point is 00:49:52 How come we're not that worried about the guns that people are carrying in certain states? What does that do? So then that goes to the robot part. But the difference is, I'm the one that's deciding what to do with this gun. Right? The conversation you just brought up with the point that if Jeff gives me the vibes of one day only 20 robots. Okay. So imagine Jeff comes to the podcast here with 20 robots around him.
Starting point is 00:50:16 Right. And that's a security, let's just say. And one of the robots all of a sudden has a glitch. And he whispers something to the robot and robots going around dropping N words. Okay? And he says, I didn't say it. The robot said it. And I'm like, no, no, that's your robot. No, that's not what I said. The robot said it. But you're the programmer. You're the brain. You're the one that's getting it to think this. this way. Why did it hit the window? I didn't do it. My robot did it. I didn't do it. So it's going to be very interesting when we go in that direction because it's like the conversation and the debate that we have that if a young kid does something, the parents should be held liable. You know that debate that some states, I don't know which one it was where one of the kids went and killed
Starting point is 00:50:55 three different kids. And then his parents were going to jail. Was it Michigan? Yeah. His parents were going to go into jail. Wait a minute. What are you talking about, right? This transition period is going to be messy because we're going to have to adopt. I agree. We're new customs, new laws, new forms of responsibility because you're, you know, my robot comes in and starts wrecking the place. Am I responsible for the robot? Well, we need, we're going to settle that. I'm telling you right now in advance. Just be ready for it. If you go back to guns, like you're, you're, personally liable for anything that comes out of your gun. That's why they have serial numbers. You have to register them. They're under your name. You can't let a friend borrow it.
Starting point is 00:51:29 You can't, you know, like if you're a felon, you can't carry one. So I think we're going to get to the same level of regulation eventually, but it's going to. be very messy. It's going to be messy. When the left gets in, the regulation you're going to see with them. So the reason why all these guys are playing offense the way they are right now, because they got a two and a half your run rate to create a ton of wealth, you better believe if a Newsom or an AOC gets in, watch what happens with the stock market, November 7th or 6th or whatever it is, 2028. The sell-off that'll happen once they find out if one of those guys got elected because of possibilities or regulation changing. Let me get to next door here.
Starting point is 00:52:04 want to get to is what's going on with Iran and the president. So a report just came in from, is it Kobashi letters? Is that the one that you have, Rob? Kobashi letters? I keep thinking Kobashi is like the one from the usual suspects when he's saying something at the end. So breaking. This just happened a few minutes ago, maybe an hour ago. Iranian state media announces initial details of memorandum on understanding for the U.S. Iran peace deal, initial details of the deal per Iran. U.S. military forces will withdraw from vicinity of Iran. The U.S. Navy will lift its blockade of Strait of Hormuz. Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial transit ships through Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month. Iranian state media says
Starting point is 00:52:42 military vessels are not included in this draft. The management of routing of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman. If a final deal is reached within 60 days, this agreement will be approved in the form of a binding U.N. Security Council resolution. U.S. oil prices extend losses to drop below $89. You notice one word wasn't mentioned in any one of those. And what is that one word? Uranium.
Starting point is 00:53:11 That's right. I didn't see it one time there. Now, that's them saying that. We've heard it from our rent on what's going to happen. Oil prices right now, if you go back to that, 8980, hasn't been prices like that since April 13th. I thought that was a day, Tom. April 17th, it got down and also got down on March 23rd.
Starting point is 00:53:29 But every other point in there, we've been 90 to 108. So yeah, every day we're hearing, well, it's going to be this, well, it's going to be that. And I have the reports here of the dates going back and forth on how the deal was taking place, which I'll get to that here in a minute. I've got to find what Pager was on, which one minute is like, yeah, we got the deal. Oh, we don't have the deal. Oh, they're doing this. Oh, they're doing that.
Starting point is 00:53:48 And then while this is happening, Israel overnight yesterday attacks Lebanon, I think, South Lebanon. And they killed 31 in South Lebanon as Israel expands ground operation. and this report came out, Rob, is this it? Go for it. Go for it if you want to play that. Rubble and destruction in the city of Tyre in the wake of Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon with a ceasefire supposedly in place and peace talks planned. This is the reality on the ground.
Starting point is 00:54:19 When the warning of the attack came, people panicked because there were children and women and old people. And they all wanted to leave their homes because they were afraid of being killed or injured. Devastating. Devastating. You can pause. Israel's army released this. Keep playing that?
Starting point is 00:54:36 On Tuesday, saying it struck more than 100 sites linked to Hezbollah, the militant group backed by Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli army's offensive was deepening. So you see that. You see oil prices. You see every day, hey, negotiating, getting closer. And then you're seeing stories.
Starting point is 00:54:57 If they don't, we're going to retaliate. And, Rob, if I'm not mistaken, there was some strikes in Tehran, Iran or something like that. That just happened. You want to play that? Go forward. The U.S. strikes inside Iran. The Pentagon says multiple targets were hit in the southern part of the country. It's called the action self-defense.
Starting point is 00:55:14 Iran says it shot down a U.S. drone overnight. Also in self-defense, it's not clear what all this means for the peace talks. But, as Tayaab has the latest from television, joins us now. And Tiaz, good morning. But very good morning to you. Well, after weeks of intense diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran, these overnight strikes by U.S. forces really threatens this already fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, who did seem to be heading towards some kind of an agreement to end the war.
Starting point is 00:55:45 Now, in a statement to CBS News from CENTCON, it said, and I'm quoting here, targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing. Okay, so then, again, I'm giving all of this, and then I'm going to come to you guys. Trump comes out and says, in order for this deal to get done, we got to do the Abram records and tie to Pakistan and others. And wait a minute, they're like, we're not open to this. Pakistan flat out said, I'm not open to it. So let me read this.
Starting point is 00:56:16 Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords and that if Iran signs the Iran, signs the agreement with me as president of the United States, it would be an honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled world coalition. If he's able to pull this off, okay, if he's able to pull this up, by the way, Pakistan already said they're not interested. If he's able to pull this off, Jeff, how big of a deal would this be if he pulls this off? Oh, the whole thing would be huge. I mean, it would be world changing. If he can both, I mean, that's always been the question. The goal here has been, this could be absolutely historic and seismic. So the question is, can he actually get there?
Starting point is 00:56:57 Because think about what the Middle East would look. Hell, think about what their entire world would look like if Iran is a functioning, democratic state. 92 million people. Huge opportunity, huge potential. Not just around, though, but the spillover effects across the rest of the Middle East where you don't have constant tensions and terrorism and security issues and all that kind of stuff.
Starting point is 00:57:16 You know, political scuffles and the conflicts. You take all that stuff away and everybody gets down to. business, the world looks very, very different. And the world looks a lot better. So if he can pull it off, it would be absolutely huge. And I think that is the, I said it from the very beginning. Trump sees the long run goal here as worth whatever the short run pain is. And the short run pain could be pretty substantial.
Starting point is 00:57:39 We're starting to see some of the evidence for that already showing up. But it would be worth it if he can pull it off. That's the issue. Can he actually pull it off? Your thoughts. I think there's a couple things in here. What's interesting is that you have UAE and Bahrain were the two that broke ranks of the Arab coalition. I think they signed onto the Abraham Accords, right?
Starting point is 00:58:01 Or they signed letters of intent that said, hey, we're in, am I correct? Those two. And it's very interesting that those two have been targeted quite a bit, right? Also because we've got things there. But if this got pulled off, it's not just the signing of the Abraham Accords. It's got to be everything that goes with it. And if that happens, I think this is, this would be amazing because what are the key parts of the Abraham Accords? You recognize that Israel is a sovereign nation.
Starting point is 00:58:32 That is usually the core, help me, Humberto, that's the core that the Islamic countries don't want, right? By signing the Abraham Accords, you recognize, but the majority of the ones that refuse to sign, Egypt refused to sign for other reasons, but they'd already recognize them. They have the Camp David Peace Accords. Right. And so Egypt said, well, we're not signing the Abraham Accords because they didn't want to be on the opposite side of everybody else. But I think this would be huge, Pat. This would be huge. And when you've got UAE and Bahrain already in there, then you've got the Saudis in the background, you know, just waiting to step across the line.
Starting point is 00:59:08 Because the Saudis want Western economic entanglements and deals. The Saudis don't want this protracted thing going on right now. Yeah, last time I heard what entanglement it was Jada Pinky talking about different things Your thoughts with this Pat This is going to sound not very selfish But I'm sick and tired of this
Starting point is 00:59:30 I just want to deal Like I can't keep on paying Like I drive a big ram truck I can't pay 425 Forever at the gas pump You know what I mean We Trump got voted in
Starting point is 00:59:44 Because he's a deal maker Never count him out I think he's going to come out swinging with a deal. I don't know how long it's going to take, but I just want a deal. Like, I literally have tuned out out of all this new cycle until we have a deal on the table and it's signed. Well, the Trump has taken the opposite approach, right?
Starting point is 01:00:01 What he's saying is I'm not going to just sign a deal. I'm only going to sign the deal that I think works long run. That's why both sides have kind of dug in here and it's a game of chicken right now. Well, the thing is that you can undo the past, you can't turn time back. if you do any deal right now, we might end up in a worse position that we started.
Starting point is 01:00:19 You know what I mean? So it needs to be a deal that is better than the Obama deal. So that's the baseline to have a deal better than the Obama deal. It needs to leave us in a position or leave Iran outside of position of power that they have right now at the Strait of Hormuz. So they need to dismantle that for all supply. And they need to close a deal. So like we're between Iraq and a hard place.
Starting point is 01:00:40 It's not an easy deal to make. No, no. This is, by the way, let me just tell you when you were saying this. So May 23rd, Trump says deal largely negotiated. Oil goes down 5.5%. Sunday, May 24th, not even fully negotiated yet. Oil bounces up 1.5%. May 25th, proceeding nicely, new U.S. strikes. Oil spikes 3%. Tuesday, May 26, good deal or deal another way. Brent goes to 99.58. Now it comes down, there's a deal taking place. Then on top of that, when you're thinking about the Abraham Accords, UAE already signed, September 2020.
Starting point is 01:01:15 Bahrain already signed September 2020. So did Morocco, which I hear Morocco's got a pretty good soccer team going into the World Cup. Sudan signed January of 2021. These are Gulf states that we're going through, right, with Abraham McCourt. Saudi Arabia not signed reportedly reluctant. They're the key mediator in the Iran deal, reportedly reluctant. And the bigger producer. That's right.
Starting point is 01:01:37 Turkey, not signed. No public response. So Qatar. Of course. And Turkey haven't made any response. Iran's deal intermediary. is Qatar and Turkey is a NATO member. Erdogan called. Pakistan rejected under no impulsion. They're saying compulsion. We're not interested for nothing. Whatever you do, we're not even
Starting point is 01:01:54 going to deal with this. And Pakistan's the army chief in Tehran for the Iran talks. Egypt not signed. Already, they said, we already have peace treaty with Israel since 79, a noise Cairo separate treaty. And Jordan said, we're not signing because we've already had a peace treaty with Israel since 1994. So same issue. So take Egypt and Jordan out. Turkey out. Take Turkey out. Maybe you get Qatar and Saudi. Then you've got Pakistan that's saying no. I think you get Qatar and Saudi. Because remember, Qatar cooperated with the U.S. request to freeze assets. They have the largest frozen asset stack at over $6 billion. Cutter cooperating with our government saying, okay, I'll freeze the assets and I'll hold court. How do you get Pakistan? How do you get Pakistan? Pakistan and Turkey, to me, are the two toughest.
Starting point is 01:02:38 Turkey doesn't want to talk about Israel going back a million years. I think it's a no deal for them. Turkey, no deal whatsoever. They can never do that. Not under the current government there. Turkey's a no-go. Got it. So then do you think Trump knows this?
Starting point is 01:02:54 Of course he does. Okay, so is he just buying time right now? Is that what you said earlier, that he's buying time? That's what it sounds like to me. He's pushing it off by saying, I have a deal done, but all these other countries are not going along, so I can't sign the deal. I can't even tell you what it is because, you know, Pakistan is being,
Starting point is 01:03:10 they're not going along with the Abrams. Oh, Saudi Arabia is objecting, and I haven't been on the phone with Turkey just yet, so I can't say that they're... By him saying that they all have to sign up, it sounds like a delay tag. Okay, so let me go to this. Let me go to this while you're talking, right? So we're saying all this stuff with, you know, what's going on there. At the same time, if you go look at how the market is reacting, what, you know, J.P. Morgan predicts negative growth shock. Goldilocks is leaving the building.
Starting point is 01:03:38 J.P. Morgan predicts. There's two stories here about the economy. I'm coming to you with Jeff. So first one is from JPMorgan Chase. Well, let's hit oil first. I think that's an important point. Go forward. Go to oil.
Starting point is 01:03:48 What we want to look for is from the oil market specifically, but as a place to start. What we're really looking for is oil to make an aggressive move that is signals that the market itself believes that this is actually happening. So it's, you know, prices have been bouncing around. If you do the math, the 10th percentile for the last two months is about $91 per barrel. And the high side is $106. Right. So it's been in a pretty, it's not a tight range, but it's been that range for the last couple months. What we're looking for is the market to get to a tipping point where you say, okay, we don't have complete information,
Starting point is 01:04:18 but we're reasonably assured that this thing's going to get done. What you're going to see is oil prices go down and then stay down. They're probably going to bounce around a little bit, but once they go down below $90 per barrel, then go early 80s or low 80s, and then if they keep going into the 70s, that'll be the signal that this thing is actually happening. So right now it's sort of like, okay, could possibly happen. The probability is not zero. The key number is 79, 78.
Starting point is 01:04:42 Somewhere around there. We've been as low as 8380. That was where you're talking about in April 17th. That's the closing price on April 17th. Then it bounce right back higher. And there's some other factors to consider, including what ends up happening after the war, how much damage has been done to oil supply, which might push oil prices back up. But for the oil market to tell you that we believe this thing is getting done,
Starting point is 01:05:02 we need to see low 80s, if not high 70s. and then not just a bounce for a day or two in those levels. We need to see oil prices drop down and stay there. They need to stick there. So what does this mean to the economy, to the average person? It means gasoline prices. It means... We'll be going down anytime soon?
Starting point is 01:05:17 I mean, there's going to be some... I mean, prices are sticky, especially when you get further down the supply chain. Tom, are you in the same place with them? Yeah, the pricing of the barrel of oil will move quickly. We have to remember where we were. we were between 62 and 67. Remember New Year's? I think it was right around 57, 58.
Starting point is 01:05:38 57 December was the low. Yeah, 57 December and it was New Year's weekend. And then we jumped up to 62 to 67 where we stayed basically until the war started at the end of February. I think that's where we stayed. So I agree that 79 is a key point because 79 Pat is only 10 bucks from 67 where we were in February before everything started. So I agree with that marker. However, it goes like this. You know, once I sell you land so that you can feed your family, now it's going to take time to grow crops.
Starting point is 01:06:10 And right now, the supplies are so low that now we got to get oil through the system to do it. Now, the good news is here in the U.S., you know, we've been able to do some of that, not all of it, but the commodity price of oil will come down, but then it's going to take, it's the same thing we talked about, Pat, about, About June 14th, you need about, I think you need 75 days, two and a half months to start to see prices really shift because you can get everything processed. And now cheaper diesel is being bought. It's cheaper diesel in the truck carrying apples. Cheaper diesel in the truck. Stable diesel.
Starting point is 01:06:49 That's the main thing. Yeah. Yeah, no, I mean, it gets back down to. Yeah, back down to a stable. Where are we right now? But let me read this to you. 550 diesel. Let me read this to you, though, Tom.
Starting point is 01:06:58 So consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May. as Iran war fuels inflation worries. This is a CNBC story. Index consumer sentiment fell from 44.8, from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It also well below the 49.8 levels we saw at the end of April, consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruption. The state of Hormuz continues to boost gasoline prices. And sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June of 2022.
Starting point is 01:07:28 Critically, Consumer Pier worried that, inflation will increase. Now, while you're seeing numbers like this with the consumer, okay, and where they're at with the market, Trump knows this. Trump's paying attention to numbers like this. He knows, you know, he is dealing with this, whether it's going into midterm or whatever you want to call it. If this is happening, report comes out yesterday, which is very interesting, Rob, if you want to play this clip, not this one, the one that shows how many of Trump's endorsements have won? Because this wasn't the case with midterms in 2022 when it happened. This wasn't the case earlier, but a video comes out yesterday. I don't know if it
Starting point is 01:08:06 was Fox or CNN and it was one of the two that showed 117, not this one, Rob, that one right there. Can you make that bigger? Watch this. Go up. Press play. Watch this. This is his scorecard, okay. He has endorsed eight governors. Now, some of these races weren't real close. They didn't have a lot of competition, but some of them did. I mean, we saw what happened in Louisiana, the primary of Bill Cassidy. We saw what happened a week ago tonight with Tom Massey in Kentucky. And now we're seeing it again tonight, okay, in Texas. Governor level, Trump endorsed eight, he won eight times. U.S. House, 1001 endorsed. He won, yeah, sorry, 101 endorsed in the House, and he won 1001. Let me put on the pencil right here and show you this. U.S. Senate, John, he has endorsed eight
Starting point is 01:08:50 candidates. And prior to tonight, he had won eight times. And now you can take the endorsement from eight to nine endorsed and from eight to nine winner. Ken Paxton was outspent nine to one. Got the endorsement from Trump, got the endorsement of Wesley Hunt, the congressman who got knocked out two and a half months ago. And now we got the setup in tax end of Telarico. Many Republicans felt if John Corning could win tonight that he could be an easy winner over Teller Rico. We'll never know that now. A lot of Republicans felt. 118.1.
Starting point is 01:09:26 118.1. So this whole message that Trump doesn't have the, you know, influence he all longer at. I had Ken Paxson on on the podcast, what, two weeks ago, Rob. It was probably less than two weeks ago. Last week. Last week. We're talking to the guy. He was down. While we had him on, he was down to Cornyn. Nine times more spent. And then all of a sudden, the day after the podcast, he gets the endorsement from the president.
Starting point is 01:09:50 You know how much he beat him by? Can you pull up by how much Ken Paxton, the AG, beat Cornyn, who has been in the system for 40-plus years, he's been the system. He beat him by 27 points. You're talking about a land-slide victory, not something small. So, Humberto, I'll come to you. For all these people that keep criticizing and say, well, you know, the economy and this and this and that, why do his endorsement right there?
Starting point is 01:10:19 Look at this. 62 to 37 he won by 134,000 votes 247,000 to 341 That was only, that was early day called that That was 33% of the vote It was not even all of it. Worse than that.
Starting point is 01:10:32 Yeah, so he had a massive lead at the beginning So Mberto, where are you out with this? Economy on one end But there's still endorsement carries weight The thing is that President Trump has something really special Because sometimes you will see that he picks Not the obvious candidate So this is part of his likability and the weight he carries, but he's also very observant.
Starting point is 01:10:52 He knows talent. You know what I mean? For example, the race in California. You know, you will think that the obvious candidate would have been Sheriff. Bianco. Yeah, Sheriff Bianco. But he picked, you know, Steve Hilton. You know what I mean?
Starting point is 01:11:09 So it's part, you know, he's likeability and it's part skill. Like he won't pick anybody. He will learn about them. He'd be like... But his record wasn't this good in 2022. to. His record has never been this good. He's undefeated right now. I think he's making better picks? You think it's because he's making better picks? Some people would say, if he would have picked Cornyn, Corny would have won. Meaning, if he would have said, Corn and Corners winning.
Starting point is 01:11:32 But this was a very good pig. It's a beatdown. It's not about a good pick. He picked the underdog. I understand that, but he picked the underdog. So to the people that keep criticizing him, you can say whatever you want, the market is reacting to his endorsements. The market's reacting. Is it going to work? Is it going to be enough to work in California? I don't know. I know.
Starting point is 01:11:52 Al Green is out. If you know who Al Green is. I know. That's wonderful. Al Green lost yesterday. And the market couldn't believe that this guy, an establishment guy, is going to be gone. The guy that pulled up with signs got kicked out of the thing twice. Right there, Rob.
Starting point is 01:12:06 Go to the one above. Go to the one above. Yeah, that one right there, right there. If you can play, that's only 38 seconds. Go forward. A jarring one to see, I think, just in terms of where expectations were. green 1-4 bend in a landslide in the preliminary, getting crushed by Menafee here, in his home base.
Starting point is 01:12:25 And again, that's Harris County. And so our decision desk is saying... You can pause that. Some interesting people are out. It'll be interesting to see what happens next, but Trump's still carrying that weight. Now, going into Canada, Tom, I want to come to you with this one here. Carney's got a little bit of an interesting thing he's dealing with Alberta.
Starting point is 01:12:41 Alberta is coming out saying, hey, we want to do a vote to see if we can do a Brexit style and Alberta leaves Canada. What do you mean? Yeah, we just kind of want to leave and do our own thing because, you know, we don't like the way you're governing. And Mark Carney is reacting to it saying, wait a minute, what are you guys talking about? You know, Prime Minister Mark Carney who has warned Alberta's push-for separation from Canada is a dangerous bluff that its supporters would regret much like the UK's Brexiters who want to rejoin the EU Carney, who was the Bank of England's governor during Britain's Brexit referendum in 2016, said many proponents. who wanted to leave the block, now regret the decision.
Starting point is 01:13:20 I saw firsthand what happened in UK when the view was, vote for this, it'll be soft, and then we'll negotiate. They're still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn't think they were voting for, but what they ended up having. Alberta's premier Daniel Smith on Thursday, go to Hearst First Rob, if you can, before we go to Carnies, announced plans to hold a public vote on October 19th to decide whether to pursue a referendum for the province to separate from Canada.
Starting point is 01:13:51 So if you type in Daniel Smith, Alberta, it'll come up. She was all over the place yesterday. It's a short video that they have. No, that's not the one. Go a little bit lower. Not that one. Okay, I'll find it. I'll text it to you.
Starting point is 01:14:06 That's one right there, Rob. That's one right there. Yeah. Go to the top one. Go to the top one if you can. Yeah, go forward. I have a very clear understanding of what the duty to consult really means. and what it doesn't mean.
Starting point is 01:14:17 And I think at the moment, there's a lack of clarity on that. And you've talked a lot about... I'd like to respond. Is this the one? Zoom out a little bit. So I think we know that that is not correct. Is that the one with Alberta wanting to leave
Starting point is 01:14:29 and read out of some time regarding the... Specifically, and we spoke about this, so I don't mind... Can you mute it? Yeah, go back to Mark Carney's and then we'll come back. I'll send you the one that I have. Go for it. Question, in terms of the specifics of the question, we have an obligation as the federal government
Starting point is 01:14:44 to look at the question and determine whether it's consistent with the Clarity Act that is underway. Ultimately, if there are questions around that, questions about the clarity of the question, if you follow, that would be a role for Parliament. I'm not saying that's the case, but we're just in the process of doing our due diligence. I will say I will make the following observation, though, about the question. And this is an observation from experience.
Starting point is 01:15:12 in these separation issues, it is often advanced that vote for this and it's a free option. Vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiation. That is a very dangerous bluff. That is a very dangerous bluff. I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was vote for this. Tom, Tom, what is how likely is it that this could possibly happen? Well, let me show you the tale of the tape in Canada. First of all, it's not likely it can happen, but why are Albertans upset?
Starting point is 01:15:46 This is the Texas of Canada. Equalization payments. This is where they take tax dollars and they give them to the provinces who are more liberal. And the provinces that do better are the ones that have to take their excess dollars and get given to everybody else. Will you please look at the Canadian provinces and the bar chart that says AB. You see that, Pat? That's Alberta. look how high it sticks up.
Starting point is 01:16:13 Alberta makes tax dollars. Look who gets the tax dollars. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, Manitoba. Look at that. This is why the people of Alberta are upset. The equalization payments are going to the other provinces. In other words,
Starting point is 01:16:30 the ones they can't carry their own weight with liberal policies. And look at that. It sticks up. It's just shocking. You find that shocking, Jeff? It's crazy. I mean, why do you think they want to secede? We're making money.
Starting point is 01:16:44 We're making with oil and agriculture and everything we do. We're the Texas of Canada. I look at it this way. The reason it's unlikely is because Ottawa could, even if they wanted to say, okay, we'll trade you Minnesota, which is like another Quebec, but weirder, we'll change you Minnesota for Alberta. I'd make that trade in a heartbeat. Take a look this. And they'd have to take the Timberwolves. So the take a look.
Starting point is 01:17:12 This is why they're upset. It's not likely, Pat, but this chart right here is why the people of Alberta are pissed off. You see that chart? That's their tax dollars. And the red is tax dollars that go to other people that can't carry their own weight. That's why Alberta's pissed. It's not going to happen because the constitutional process in Canada is drag. I mean, the vote is just the start of the process.
Starting point is 01:17:34 And even the premier of Alberta, Ms. Smith, she's not for it either. She's saying, I mean, she's actually a good politician here saying, look, I'm not for independence, but I think we need to put it to a vote just to put this issue to rest. But it's got to go through Parliament. It's got to go through all sorts of, it's never going to happen. I agree. But the issue goes beyond. The chart is why the Albertans are upset. That's where it starts.
Starting point is 01:17:53 I know. They have a recent degree. It goes beyond that, though. It goes, it's, you know, it's like Iowa being governed by New York City. There's different values systems in Alberta. The Midwest of Canada is a lot like the Midwest of the United States. There's very different value systems, very different political. identities, there are different political philosophies.
Starting point is 01:18:11 It's almost like they're two different countries at this point. And so the independence movement, it's like you're seeing in a place like Oregon, where parts of Oregon want to secede from the... Quebec wants to be independent for a long time. You know, it's very unlikely the Kalshia, Justin Rob, is 20% chance that the referendum goes through. If the referendum goes through, they will need to win by a large patent, large margin, like 60% plus so they can take in...
Starting point is 01:18:37 They only have 35% so... support right now for this. 25 to 40% support to separate. It will be a very clear signal, like 60% plus, so Congress takes it seriously. They need to see if it's clear enough of a signal to put it to vote. If they put it to vote, they can
Starting point is 01:18:52 they might secede and join the United States. But we don't need to train Minnesota. I like Minnesotans. You don't need to what? Trade. Trade them for Minnesota. For Alberta. They've said they don't want to join the U.S. either. Even if they do succeed from Canada, they want to be a
Starting point is 01:19:08 separate state. But I mean, it's just, I think the most important part of this is that it's registering the voter sentiment. Yeah, it's more than dissatisfaction. We've gone past dissatisfaction. We've gone way past apathy. Apathy is where it always starts. You go way past apathy. Now we're into voter dissatisfaction to the point that we need to fight back. It's getting to the point where people are tired of being governed by people who don't take you seriously. In fact, it's the same thing, you know, fly over country, the idea of fly over. People on the coasts in the United States, It's not that they don't necessarily agree with people in the middle of the country. They don't even like them.
Starting point is 01:19:42 And it shows in a lot of the policies that come up. Same thing in Canada. Ottawa does not govern for Alberta. Ottawa governs for Ontario and Quebec and maybe, what is it, British Columbia over there in the West. And 60% of the Quebec are hyper-liberals. Yes, they're not Alberta. Yeah, that's the residents. That was just very...
Starting point is 01:20:03 It's the residents of Quebec and Montreal. Say it again one more time. How do you say it? Kubukua. Kubuqua. I love it. Well, let's go to another possible person that would be from Kubukua. Ben and Jerry founder, who says selling your business is a shitty goal.
Starting point is 01:20:19 Okay. Ben and Jerry's founder, Ben Cohen, whom I've had on, which, by the way, actually liked them. I don't like his policies, but I liked them. We had a good time together. He says, selling your business is a shitty goal. What does this mean? So Ben Cohen said many founders wrongly treat selling their company as the ultimate goal, arguing businesses should instead focus on long-term purpose, profitability, and shared values.
Starting point is 01:20:41 Cohen spoke while promoting the free Ben & Jerry's campaign, which urged current owner Magnum Ice Cream Company to spin off the brand to investors, willing to preserve its local mission, social mission. The campaign has gathered more than 130,000 petition signatures and staged public protests, including a boycott Magnum demonstration outside the company's annual meeting, why activism resonated with customers. Cohen argued Ben and Jerry built unusually strong customer loyalty because it connected
Starting point is 01:21:09 with his customers through shared values, not just products. He criticized corporations focused solely on maximizing short-term profits at the expense of workers, communities, and the environment. He said consumers are eager to support companies whose value aligned with their own, especially during what he described
Starting point is 01:21:25 as the age of Trumpism. Why Cohen opposed selling the Unilever? Cohen said he opposed selling Ben and Jerry to Unilever in 2000, because because he believed the company's values would not survive under ownership that did not share its mission. He now sees the ongoing dispute with Unilever as proof that concern was justified. He encouraged entrepreneurs to build meaningful businesses rather than aiming to eventually sell the company to the man. Brand purpose must be ready, not trendy.
Starting point is 01:21:51 So, Tom, do you agree with them on this? Because they act, didn't they end up selling their company, Rob? Yeah. Yes, they did. I thought they sold the company for a billion dollars, if I'm not mistaken. They did. Yeah, they sold it for a good amount of money or sold it for $326, million dollars.
Starting point is 01:22:05 With one condition, the new owner broke it, and now the co-founder wants it back. Tom, do you agree with Ben Cohen on this? So, capitalists on Monday cash a check from Unilever, back to liberal on Tuesday. This guy is funny. He was here. He had the interview, ate ice cream together. You guys did, and that was really funny and it was entertaining. But really, I take issue with his position.
Starting point is 01:22:30 It's like, okay, you want to buy the company back because you. you don't think Unilever did a real good thing with it. Are you going to give your original check back? What are you going to do? Are you going to help do that? Do you want to buy it back? Use all the money that you've got to buy it back? So I find it very ironic that on one hand they take the check pat, but then on the other
Starting point is 01:22:49 hand, he's criticizing capitalist system and then wants the brand back and things like this. Look, you're not the first person that sold your company to private equity or someone and saw changes. But once you've sold, the new owner has it. want to protect your employees. You want things to happen. But for him to come out and say, oh, I, you know, I don't like this, you know, because Unilever is, you know, coming out with spinning turd swirl. And, you know, I think that's against the, the values of the company. Well, look, it's not your company anymore and you sold it. And so I see what he's saying. But you got to remember,
Starting point is 01:23:24 if you were this altruistic, why did you cast the check way back when? Even if you say you were against it, why did you do it? Yeah, they saw for 326. Apparently Ben got 40,000. Jerry got 10 million because that had a very small percentage of it. The companies today were worth $1.5 billion to $20 a half billion. And, you know, now you're coming back saying it wasn't a good idea to sell it. Jeff, where are you at with this? I agree with Tom here, except I think it's a little more than it's sour grapes kind of a thing. I mean, in many ways Unilever, especially more recently,
Starting point is 01:23:53 has stifled some of the political activism that Ben and Jerry's the brand was trying to undertake. And you can understand why Unilever would do that because, I mean, smartest thing in business is not to pin off. We don't buy it in our house because of this. Exactly. And Unilever says, look, we want to maximize our profits and there's nothing wrong with doing so. So we're not going to engage in political activism and we're going to tamp that down. So I think, you know, some of this has just been saying we didn't think that was going to be the case. And either he was, either he's lying about that or he's just naive.
Starting point is 01:24:19 I don't think he's the first on the list of people that regret, you know, selling their businesses. You know, the founder of Instagram that's sort of $1 billion, the company was his valuation. Steve Jobs went through this, you know, after exiting Apple and then coming back. And then again, there's different, there's no, like, the way he put it, I think there's no wrong reason to start a company, all right? I think there's companies that they have your vision and what you want to achieve. You want to build an institution for the future. You want to build a way of thinking, a way of designing, a way of inspiring people. That is pretty much what we're doing here.
Starting point is 01:24:55 But having a company and exiting, you know, having plans to exit at some point to build your dream business, you can't fault anybody. I don't know what the main reason, the rule they broke, but it's probably the really bad ice cream collaborations they've done. They gave Jimmy Fallon an ice cream flavor, all right? If they do that to my company, I'm out, all right? I'm going to try to buy them back. Yeah, I think a part of it when you're buying a business that has got this big of a social justice, the buyers knew what they were dealing with, okay?
Starting point is 01:25:28 The buyers knew what they were dealing when they bought the company. They knew these guys are socialist. They knew these guys are hippies. They knew these guys are not the traditional, you know, operator that's selling the business. And by the way, I don't know how old Ben is. Rob, type in Ben Cohen age. He's got to be in the 70s, maybe late 60s, early 70s. Jerry Garcia is 75 years old.
Starting point is 01:25:47 And the guy is still out there. So he has his beliefs that are core beliefs when he and I sat down and talk. When you sell your business, there are certain things that happen when you sell your business as the founder. You have the emotional touch. you built a company. The people miss the founder because there's safety with the founder. The founder did certain things that you were protected of. The new company not comes in may make certain changes that you may or may not like.
Starting point is 01:26:15 Now, typically when you buy a business, the new owner can do whatever the hell they want to do. They literally can do whatever they want to do. Sometimes they do too much and the company collapses. Sometimes they empower people to keep run the company. And that also continues. but the founder coming back and constantly saying what went right, what went wrong, constantly needing that attention. If you're out of face, if somebody's watching this right now, they tell me they're 42 years old,
Starting point is 01:26:41 they're 35 years old, they're 53 years old, man, I'm so excited about selling my company. You know what's the first thing I ask him? What do you think is the first thing I ask him? What do you think is the first thing I ask him if you're selling you? Exactly. Yeah. What are you going to do afterwards? Same thing with retirement.
Starting point is 01:26:55 Yeah. What are you going to do afterwards? Go ahead. You sold a company. He got $60 million in a bank. Go ahead. what are you doing now? How long do you think you can go golf every day? How long you can go I'm going to go on a 90-day cruise with my wife. By the eighth day, you guys want to kill each other
Starting point is 01:27:10 if you go on a cruise. You think it's going to be like every day having a blast when you retire and sell your business? No. So half the battle is if you don't yet know what you're going to do after you sell, do not sell. Now, does timing go into it? Of course, we felt Tom and I when we sat through when we sold the business. We sold June 27th of 2022. When we were in Monaco, we felt we sold at the most perfect time. We knew what we want to do later. I had already moved to Florida. We had already knew we were going to build a media company in a consulting firm. So there was a transition. From the day I sold to the day before and the day after, Tom and I talked, and Jennifer, Tom, you'll remember this. Me, you, Jen and Maral and Tikron, we talk. We said, listen, guys,
Starting point is 01:27:57 When we sell the business, we're going to go get a yacht in Monaco, and we're going to be on it for 90 days. You know, till today, we haven't done that yet. We said a few other things. We haven't done that yet. We're not going to talk about that one. So what's the point? The point is the day we sold, the next day I was at the office,
Starting point is 01:28:17 same time I was the day before. There wasn't a difference because we already know what we're going to do next. So I think he's playing a little bit politics, but I think he's also got to touch with the brand. His name's in the brand. Yeah, but there's one last point here. I mean, it's capitalism for me, socialism for these. True, yeah.
Starting point is 01:28:31 The total hypocrite here, right? It's, I'm going to get rich being a capitalist, and then I'm going to argue. Well-deserved criticism to him. It's well-deserved criticism. Now, let's go to some teenagers who may be working for Ben and Jerry's this summer. Teens' worst summer ever in getting jobs.
Starting point is 01:28:47 This is according to Barrens, why teens are facing the worst summer job market on record. On record. So what does this mean, the worst job market on record? One of the most common rights of passage of young Americans is spending the long summer hours working as a camp counselor, lifeguarding at the pool, stocking shelves, or serving of diners at regulars. But for many teens, these opportunities have been scarce in recent years, and this summer may not be all different. Despite the overall labor market looking a bit stronger in recent months, the employment outlook for teenagers remains challenging. Job placement agency challenger, Gray and Christmas predicts that teens.
Starting point is 01:29:27 only will gain a cumulative 790,000 jobs in May, June, and July 26, slightly down from last year's 8001,000 jobs at the same period. If that proves true, it would be the lowest rate of summer employment among teen on records. Inflation and rising fuel costs are squeezing the same households and small businesses that hire teens, such as amusement parks, restaurant retailers, and summer camps. When margins tighten summer hires will wait for demand to dictate hiring Andy Challenger. said teen unemployment, which typically runs much hard in the national average, has been choppy so far this year. As of April, the unemployment rate among Americans age of 16 to 19 was 14.4%
Starting point is 01:30:08 compared to the national average of 4.3%. Tom, your thoughts on the story? So to me, thank you, Wall Street Journal. This is just a simple story that shows a downstream effect. And it's unfortunate. There's a lot of kids out there that want to make the extra dollars to, you know, put some in the bank and have that extra money when school starts or, you know, buy the kicks that they want versus the sneakers that their parents want to buy them. And it's very simple. We are in a spike of affordability driven by oil in the war. And so parents are spending less on summer camps, less on vacations to amusement parks and theme parts. And so all of those extra summer jobs are not there. It's very simple.
Starting point is 01:30:54 And it's tragic. It's not tragic. It's unfortunate. It's bad. But that's what it is. I mean, this is a downstream effect. You have 45 days ago to talk about it. If June 14th had been April 14th, Pat, and then things were shifting back, guess what?
Starting point is 01:31:11 These kids are with other summer jobs. But take a look. You're talking only about an 11,000 job difference from... That's right. From last year? 801 to 7.7.9. So they like to use headlines to say, you know, stock goes up a percent and a half. Invidia soared today.
Starting point is 01:31:28 So the headlines tend to play at that way. Let me ask you a question, Tom. Let me ask you. But this sucks if you're that teenager and you're just trying to make an extra 1,000 in the summer. Could that be that at 801 to 790 is because the kids are creating content making money, doing Uber, doing Uber eats, using those gig apps. And that's one of the reasons why those numbers don't translate to. jobs? I'd love to see a deeper dive into it because frequently the business trades take one stat connected to two other stats and then make their story on it. But I'd like to see everything.
Starting point is 01:32:01 Like what about the 1099 kids that are just doing social media or helping other people? Now can I add something? These are very important jobs, Pat. There's a few studies that they were made on summer jobs for teenagers. They reduced crime. There was a study done in Chicago. it reduces crime 18% when the kids are employed. It also prepares them. There's another study. Prepars them for their future. They have higher prospects of getting a future job,
Starting point is 01:32:26 higher wages along their career. Like, you know, they become more responsible or more punctual. So I think it's in the best interest of companies if they can, to open up jobs for teenagers. You know what I mean? Because it's such a important developmental stage in their career that losing this job, even though it's 10,000, it's a tragedy, you know.
Starting point is 01:32:47 No? This is not a U.S. problem. This is a world. And I'm going to disagree with you, Tom. This is not just headline shopping. This is actual data. If you go to something like Joltz hiring, Jolts is another BLS survey. The BLS is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They do the payroll report as well as the household survey, where the unemployment comes from. They also keep a third survey, which is called Joltz, which is job openings and labor turnover. And job openings and labor turnover, they also keep a hiring rate. Well, they do a hiring level, and then you have to convert it to a rate. The hiring rate has been falling for years. And it has gotten down to the point where the hiring rate this year was about equal to where it was in late 2008. Late 2008. So this is new job hiring rate? New hiring. So then you add that with quits and layoffs and discharge and then you get the turnover and it matches up with the... Split out, non-farm and all that. Hiring has been collapsing for years in collapsing.
Starting point is 01:33:38 But again, this is not a U.S. issue nor this is not a Trump thing. It's the economy for the last couple of years coming off the high in 21 and 22, off the sugar high. from all the government issues. Hiring has absolutely collapsed. In an economic system where nobody is hiring, who suffers first? Youth unemployment rises. One of the key signs to a very sick economy is when youth unemployment rises a lot. And again, it's not U.S. There's studies in Canada that show youth unemployment has spiked. In China, youth unemployment is a huge issue. Youth unemployment is at a record high in China. And that was after they changed the definitions of what youth unemployment was. So what we're seeing is a worldwide phenomenon where post-
Starting point is 01:34:17 2021, businesses can't afford to hire risky employees. Instead, what do they do? They stick to the workers that they have because they're productive, their known quantities, I can work with them. I don't have to take the risk of hiring some kid not knowing whether or not they're going to actually work, what they're going to look like. But in an economic system requires that kind of risk-taking for sustained economic growth. So this is a multi-layered, multi-year problem, multinational issue. It's not just something that just sprung up here in 2026. This has been happening for several years now. And this also answers the question that we started with, why is Mundami running around New York City talking about stealing of housing?
Starting point is 01:34:59 Because from the perspective of youth, and this college graduates, college graduates are living with their parents. Why are they living with their parents? Because they have nobody to hire them. And so when Mandami comes along and says, I'm going to get you a brand new apartment that you're going to own because it's going to be collectively owned, that message resonates. Nobody is hiring. everybody who's out here saying the economy is good, it doesn't line up with especially younger people's, what their perceptions of how reality is, how reality is right now. Your reaction to that. So I see what you're saying, but I'll stand by the fact that we could talk about Jolts or we could debate headlines.
Starting point is 01:35:37 You can see the way the Wall Street Journal has been playing headlines. And so this may be a seed or, you know, the iceberg above the water, and the iceberg below the water is much bigger and more complex. I'll give you that, and I'll agree with that. My thought is I really want to understand beyond the hiring, what else they're doing. So if hiring has been in a collapse, like if you go take a look at, if we go to Fred out of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve Economic Database, and we go take a look at second jobs, and you look at full-time, full-time, full-time, part-time, part-time, and, yeah, that's the three. then you look at those charts and you see that second jobs are up, you say, well, either that's a sign and or even up more on Gen Z.
Starting point is 01:36:22 Is that a sign of entrepreneurial enthusiasm or is that a sign of I have to have a second job to make ends meet? And so I think you can look at it, look at it both ways. But I look at it the second way. Yeah, I exactly. I agree, Pat, with what he's saying that if you have long-term systemic issues with youth hiring, that it is a symptom that more often than not is related to economic issues. You know, I agree with that part. I also think that anything to make this economy look not as sweet gets played up by the current business.
Starting point is 01:36:58 That is absolutely true. Absolutely true. But, again, I think the problem there is that it – When it ends up happening is you obscure these – Maybe obscure stories that are really true. Right. And then everybody, you know, everybody gets into their partisan team. It's Biden versus Trump.
Starting point is 01:37:12 and whose economy is, and it's neither. The issue is this has been happening for several years now, and it explains a hell of a lot. From political dissatisfaction to social disintegration, a whole bunch of issues are wound up in it. Hiring is the single biggest problem that we have across the entire global economy. Nobody wants to hire. It's going to get, it's going to change.
Starting point is 01:37:35 It's not going to get any better. I think we're going to see my, it's going to get good for the guys that are performing. Those guys are never going to. going to be struggling. Like, I'll give you an idea. There's a Kevin O'Leary story, Rob, if you want to pull this up. Kevin O'Leary slams people who want work-life balance. I hope they work for my competitors. Is what he said in this clip. If you have it, play this clip. Go for it, Rob. Guys, we need audio. People that shut down their laptop at five want that balance in life, want to go to the soccer game, nine to five only. They don't work for me. I can tell you that. I hope they work for
Starting point is 01:38:08 my competitors. Yeah, and by the way, simple statement, right? I hope they work for my competitors. This is a guy that's worth a half a billion dollars. Maybe in the talent of communication, he's one of the best. There's guys that are worth $200 billion that don't communicate as well as this guy does. He talks better than 99.9% of the guys on TV. At one point, I think he wanted to run for Prime Minister of Canada, if I'm not mistaken. He had some political aspirations, I think 10 years ago, five years ago, if you look it up and fact check me on that. So you'll see stories like this. In today's market, if you're somebody that's becoming, did he want to or no, was president or prime minister or something, he wanted to, well, terms of presidential,
Starting point is 01:38:49 political run, yeah, there you go, 2017, 10 years ago, yeah. So if you are somebody that at this age, without a lot of options, so Guy yesterday on one of our masterminds asked me a question, he said, hey, my buddy wants to know how he can accelerate hiring better quality people for his company. I said, really? Yeah. I said, great. How much did he make in profits last year? He says $200,000. I said, what type of quality people does you want to get? High quality people. Great schools, great this, great experience, great background. I said, well, listen, I would like to be the majority owner of the New York Yankees. How do I do it? And I want to do it today. The guy's like, I don't know. How do you do it? I said, why don't you go look. I said, why don't you go
Starting point is 01:39:37 look up what the Yankees are worth today. Rob, can you pull up Yankees valuation today? By the way, I think the Yankees are worth somewhere between $12 to $20 billion when somebody buys them because you're not going to get a brand like this for a while. But the Yankees, right now, Forbes number is $8.5 billion. When I went in,
Starting point is 01:39:53 I think it was $3.7 billion. So we've done pretty okay with the Yankees. Yeah, pretty okay with it. So, and I went two times, by the way, two rounds, because I bought two rounds of minority owners that were selling and I jumped on it, and it's been a great investment so far. But I'd like to be a 51% owner today.
Starting point is 01:40:10 He says, well, you need $4.3 billion. I say, I know, but I want to be that today. That's not how it works. I said, well, but I'm telling you, I want to be minority today. Now, I don't want to be in 10 years. I don't want to be in, I want to be today. You can't. What's the point?
Starting point is 01:40:26 If you don't have the luxury today of being picky and choosy with your job and you see where it's going, do not be the person that's overly negotiating for their jobs. Be the guy that comes in or the gal that comes in and goes above and beyond. Let the company ask themselves and say, dude, are we going to get somebody that's going to work like this guy? Holy freaking moly, this guy goes above and beyond. Who is this guy? What is this guy all about? I like this guy a lot.
Starting point is 01:40:51 I like what this guy's doing. When I worked at Ballet's, I was telling a story yesterday. Brandon texting me on one of our conversations we had. I remember going to a Valley Tolley, I started off at Bally's at Covers City. I don't know if you guys remember Ballet Total Fitness. Do you remember Valley Total Fitness? Tom, did you ever train out of Valley Total Fitness? Fitness when you were squatting four plates?
Starting point is 01:41:09 No, no, I've been there a few times as a guess, but I never was. Okay, so I used to work at Valley Total Fitness, Culver City, down the street from Fox Hills Mall. And within 30 days, they put me in, and I was a terrible salesperson first couple weeks. Eventually, Cisco says, I want you to go sell memberships at Fox Hills Mall. I said, Cisco, respectfully, if I can't sell memberships in the gym, while the equipment is here, how the hell am I going to sell memberships at a mall where I have nothing to show for? There was no phone to show. Here, let me give you a virtual tour.
Starting point is 01:41:41 We didn't have stuff like that. You're just kind of talking. So as I'm telling you, this is your last chance because I think if you go learn how to sell there, you can sell anywhere. So I go to Fox Hills Mall. I'm right by the escalator. If you know which one I'm talking about, I'm right by the escalator. I'm working with this guy named Gabriel and Hyme, their brothers.
Starting point is 01:41:56 And these guys were hustlers, two Mexican brother hustlers that are going around the table, talking to everybody. Let me tell you about the corporate membership stuff that we have. And for two weeks, guess what I'm standing? I'm standing right behind the table that we have. Within two weeks, I went around this one African-American girl was walking by. I went to her, I talked to her. I brought her over.
Starting point is 01:42:15 We started having a conversation. And she right there bought a membership $75 down $32 a month. It was a corporate discount. And she got a premier membership to all clubs. I could not believe she said, yes, I signed a contract. I'm literally sitting there saying either this lady's crazy or I just got lucky. Next thing, you know, two weeks later, I'm the number one guy. Then I became rookie the month.
Starting point is 01:42:38 And then rookie the quarter. And then they moved me to Valley Total Fitness Hollywood, which was the biggest club we had. And then from Hollywood, I moved to Chatsworth and I'm working at Chatsworth Club. Now, if you guys are old enough, if you're above 40, people should know what Chatsworth was known for in the 90s and 2000. Do you know what it was known for? I don't. I don't. 80% of all porn in the world was produced in Chatsworth, California.
Starting point is 01:43:00 And I was the manager of the gym where all the porn started out of the house there. Did he? It was terrible. It was terrible. It was everywhere. It was terrible. It was a canyon up there, Bel Canyon. Bill Canyon, yes.
Starting point is 01:43:11 It was terrible. A lot of movies would be purchased. I love Bel Canyon, by the way. Bill Canyon. Don't say anything about Bill Canyon. Joe Rogan is to live in Bel Canyon. We almost bought a house in Bel Canyon. It changed.
Starting point is 01:43:19 You're thinking about the Bel Canyon days of the nasty Bel Canyon days, Tom, because we don't want to age you here. When they made those Christmas movies. Right. Not so tiny Tim. You would go to, you would go to El Toritos and guess who's eating right next to you. A guy named Ron Germain. And Ron Jeremy was not a hockey player.
Starting point is 01:43:35 I've been on flights with Ron Jeremy. I can tell you plenty of stories. Again, but here's the part. This is the part I'm trying to get to. To the youth that's listening to this, I was a young guy at a choice of going back in the Army or making this job work at valleys. Whatever chance I got to improve myself with any opportunities,
Starting point is 01:43:55 I took it. Nobody wanted to go to Chatsford Bally's. Nobody. That was the worst club to go to. It would never hit numbers. It was always horrible. We went there. I went to talk to this one guy named Big Oliver.
Starting point is 01:44:04 They call him Big O, 320-pound linebacker. He says, hey, yo, Pete, I don't want to burst your bubble, but nobody hits numbers at Chatsworth. You know what we ended up doing? Within 30 days, we broke the records at Chatsworth. We had 115%. Robbie Solomon comes in, cannot believe what's taking place. Tony Wilson is surprised.
Starting point is 01:44:21 J.C. Carrera, Ricky Wilson, all these guys. Ricky Woods, all these guys. We blew it up. It was a great experience. I was 21 years old. I didn't have a lot of options. I didn't have a four-year degree. I don't have a two-year degree.
Starting point is 01:44:33 You know where I went and worked after Ballets? Morgan Stanley Dean Wooder. And my career took off on financial services. So you never know what's going to happen. No matter where you go, contribute and give your best. Stop bitch and stop whining. Have a good attitude.
Starting point is 01:44:47 Come early. Stay late. Read the books. Do everything you can. That community, you will always have a job. There will always be a demand for you. But the people that are complaining, whining, and always seem to bad and everything,
Starting point is 01:44:59 you're always going to have problems for the rest of your life. If you pick and choose what direction you want to go to. So I fully agree what Kevin O'Leary is saying. And the last story I'll come to you guys here before we wrap up is the following. Entrepreneur Magazine comes out with a story of a friend. Don't pull it up yet, Rob, but I think you have it ready. Where one of Elon's friends gave him a million dollars to invest in Tesla early on
Starting point is 01:45:22 and eventually got into SpaceX as well. And that million dollars, Rob, if you want to pull it up. This is the kind of stuff that it didn't 10X. It did in 100x. Watch this. He loaned Elon a million dollars and that million dollars now is worth over a hundred billion dollars.
Starting point is 01:45:41 Look at this. Elon Musk's best friend Antonio Garcia bet early on Musk, his 7.3% SpaceX stake could soon make him one of the 50s wealthy people
Starting point is 01:45:56 in the war. They're saying it's going to be worth 150. billion dollars. By the way, if you do some math, you know what 100 X is? You know what 100 X return on an investment is on a million dollars? You have 100 million dollars. A billion is 1,000 X. 10 billion is 10,000 X. A hundred billion is 100,000 X. This guy 150,000 X, the loan he gave to Elon Musk for 7.3 billion dollars. Tom, your thoughts on this story. Well, it just goes to show you you can be at the right place at the right time and you can be around the right people. It also proves that I'm going to make an adjustment. There used to be an old adage that said, you know, your position in life and even your net worth will be influenced by the top five people you choose to have in your orbit as your close associations or friends.
Starting point is 01:46:47 So you take all the 20 people you know, who are the five that were really in their close? What are they all about? Are they racist? Are they cool people? Are they trying to grow out of their youth? Are they working hard? Are they successful? wherever those top five are, it'll influence where you go.
Starting point is 01:47:03 People have said that a lot, right, Pat? Okay, this shows you that it only takes one. It only takes one that you have one guy who was, at the time, was a genius micro-dosing EV founder who was worried that he's going to lose it and he really needed a bridge loan and you say, okay, I'll do it, I'll do it for this. And who knows what he got? He got something, some percent, because over time, if you own a percent of something, Humberto, and over time they raise 50 percent in capital and round, round, round, round, round.
Starting point is 01:47:36 No, you're one percent now as a half a percent. But it's diluted as a percent, but the total value of the company is skyrocketed. So wherever this guy went, it went. And it goes on the heels of the story that, you know how every now and then he made, and this guy, God bless Antonio Gracius, you know, he scored. But you know what also is your friend Elon Musk is just tough and he's brash. He went to the federal government to be deposed and to go through things because he sent out a tweet and he says, I've got money for Tesla.
Starting point is 01:48:10 Funding has been secured. Remember that? The famous tweet? Yep. Well, yesterday, you know what he was musing yesterday? And he says, well, maybe by 2027, I'll just merge Tesla and SpaceX because we have the battery technology. we've got the satellite communications to the cars. Maybe I'll just move both of them.
Starting point is 01:48:28 And now everybody today was like, oh my gosh, could that be a $4 trillion company? Suddenly we're not talking about a $1.7 trillion dollar SpaceX. We're suddenly talking about a $4 trillion company, which just goes to show you, Musk being Musk, and it's very good to be a friend of Musk. It's Snyder. Risk-taking. I mean, that's what really, well, you guys know this. I mean, successful people take risk.
Starting point is 01:48:53 Yeah, I mean, loaning Elon Musk a million dollars is not necessarily a huge risk. People will make a line to it. But I mean, the point is risk taking and making good bets is what really separates people out. It's about taking calculated risks that you look at a guy like Elon Musk and say he's going to make it. So a million dollars yet may be painful in the short run, but this is a bet worth taking. And I think that's the ultimate lesson. Well, I think identifying and betting on talent, it is so important. You just, you look at people and you're like, okay, this guy is going places.
Starting point is 01:49:26 He gets it earlier. He works harder. He stays longer. He innovates. He's coming up with ideas. And you were like, all right, I'm willing to lose a million dollars on this guy. And, you know, like, I don't know. I've been betting on talent for the last, you know, a few months, and it's been paying off massively.
Starting point is 01:49:44 Yeah. And by the way, you're a pretty good developer. You're a pretty good manager as well. You pick him, you develop him, you teach him. You have that ability. I think a part of this, I did a video, Rob, if you can pull it up in a creator studio, see if you can find it, is about Musk. And I said, what's more important? The horse or the jockey, right?
Starting point is 01:50:04 The horse or the jockey? Because so many times you'll sit there and you're like, you know what, I think I'm going to bet on the jockey. I'm going to bet on the horse. I'm going to bet on this. Here's the reality of it. Never bet against the guy like Yelan Musk. Never do so. You know who learned the hard way?
Starting point is 01:50:20 A lot of short sellers. You know who Learned a hard way? A lot of his competitors. If you've ever read his book by Walter Isaacson, which if you haven't, if you really want to understand this guy, go read that book. And you'll see where this guy was and what he did. Many, many years ago, people were saying the debate was, what's better to invest in? Is it better to invest in Tesla or Elon long term? I said, listen, I'm betting on Elon whatever he's operating.
Starting point is 01:50:49 I'm betting in Elon on what he can operate and drive. So you get judged, you said something about risk, you and I get judged based on our instinct and intuition. And investing in certain things, I know a lot of guys that are very, very smart, Humberto, but my God, they choose the wrong investments. I know a lot of guys that are so smart, brilliant, have read all the books, have all the fancy degrees. But when it comes down to investing and pick in the right jockeys, they're horrible at it. They can't see They can't see the BS factor of the individual. They can't see that this guy's not a serious guy.
Starting point is 01:51:24 They can't see through it. They're easily naive. And they kind of will be like, yeah, that's a guy too. That guy to do this. And by the way, none of us are 100%. Everybody's going to fall for the trap. It's not like anybody's going to make the right investments or not. It's not like, you know, everyone's going to go out there and get it 100% of time.
Starting point is 01:51:39 There's never been a person that's 100% of the time. Rob, were you able to find that clip or not? I can't even find it myself. Yeah, I can't find it. It's a clip I did 10 years ago, nine years ago. If you're 60% of the time, you're above average. You are, you are, but you have to have a, you have to make a decision early on,
Starting point is 01:51:56 on your relationship with risk, like Jeff said. And then at the same time, like, one very easy exercise to do is the following. One very easy exercise to do is the following. Take a sheet of paper and write down the list of people in your life, that went well and didn't go well. Okay. Investments you made, people you went to business with,
Starting point is 01:52:22 people you befriended, decisions you made, investments you made, and then score yourself on that. What happened there with that relationship? And that's a failure, 3.2. Man, that's a dis. And then right next to it, you know what I do, Humberto? Did I have any early signs that this wasn't going to work out?
Starting point is 01:52:40 And then if I took the risk, guess what? At least I took the risk knowing there was still early signs. But then if I knew the early signs and it was a horrible sign, why did I still go with it? Why did I make that decision for it? Why did I do that? It wasn't worth doing that. Why did I do it? And then what can I do differently for the next time this comes around to see the pattern and things like, there was a kid that came to our house with one of my kids. And from the beginning, I just didn't like the way this guy handled himself.
Starting point is 01:53:09 I didn't like the way he talked to my wife. I didn't like the way he talked to my kids. and he was one of the new guys that had come in town. And I'm like, hey, I told one of my kids, this is not a guy that's going to come to her house. And all of a sudden, the kid, a couple years later, gets into a massive trouble with the school he's in. What happened?
Starting point is 01:53:25 There's a gut feeling. You know, women typically have this gift. You know how women can, your mother can kind of tell somebody. My dad had a very good instinct with some of the friends as well. But that instinct intuition, you cannot teach it. Some people get this thing very, very wrong with their instinct and intuition. If there's a muscle in life that you want to have your kids and yourself get better at,
Starting point is 01:53:47 it's instinct, intuition. If you don't measure yourself and sit down and go through it, you will make a lot of wrong hires. There's this book right here that, you know, I've read now, this is the third time I'm going through this book, 5X, and I've listened to the audio, and I'm going through it for third time. It talks about the hires you made that were good and bad. Why did you make those bad hires?
Starting point is 01:54:07 Why is it be occurring? Why does this continue happening to you? This book right here, not a lot of reviews. If you're an entrepreneur, do yourself a favor and go buy this book. I don't know the author. I know there are two private equity guys that talk about CEOs that on average got 5x plus on investment. So private equity invests $10 million in the company. The company exists, that $10 million becomes $50 million.
Starting point is 01:54:29 The average CEO that did $5 plus X. It shows you patterns. And you know what the whole pattern is? Decision making, intuition, instinct, focus, being able to say no, bringing a right person in, hiring the right person, firing the right person, not lagging on a fire, all of that stuff. So it goes down to instinct and intuition. And this guy that gave a million dollars to Elon, I just looked him up to see what else he did. He also invested in Tesla, SpaceX, NeuroLink, boring company.
Starting point is 01:54:55 And he made his money early on because early on he was hired to scale a plating manufacturing company, metal plating and manufacturing company that he grew from $10 million to $125 million. So it's not like this is a schla. He was already good. Yeah, he was already good. He founded a company called Valor. equity partners in 1995. He's also a winner. And now you know him as a multi-billioner. Patiently, long-term, eventually he added it. So more...
Starting point is 01:55:19 One of the hardest things for people to do is just what you just did on a self-evaluation. It's very difficult for people to do that for themselves. And I think that's one of the skills that a lot of people are lacking. Can you sit down? It is because you should be your own worst critic. It's tough. And when we did the survey and the audience reacted to the podcast and saying this and that, it's tough to kind of go through it and get it. But every once in a while you have to do, the more often you can do it, you'll have an over your peers and the competition. Anyways, having said that, another great podcast story.
Starting point is 01:55:46 Today's stories were actually exciting. Sometimes you've got stories that's just boring stories. Today's stories were exciting. Womberto, great job. Jeff, great to have you back on. Tom, the folks out there, if there's last thoughts, I'll give you on this, do yourself a favor and recruit a better community around you. Do yourself a favor and go recruit a better community around you.
Starting point is 01:56:07 The ways I did it is by going to business conferences. If you haven't read registered for the VAL Conference, bring your husband, bring your wife, bring your kids, bring your peers, bring your coworkers. Like I said, there's a company from France, I believe that's bringing 500 people with them of their salespeople. And I think this 12,000 is going to sell out the fastest we've ever had in the history of the company. CO tickets are about to sell out. People are buying tickets online from around the world. If you want to be around a different community, because my audience is people like me, strong capitalist, family, values, principles, they like kids, they want to make. money, they want to create wealth, and they want to talk a little bit of politics and all the
Starting point is 01:56:44 other stuff. That's the types of people that show up to the Vault Conference. Go to Vault 2026. Get yourself a ticket again, Vault 2026. Rob, you said 9 a.m. is tomorrow, is tomorrow, 9 a.m. Chad Bianco. Yes, sir. Tomorrow 9 a.m. Chad Bianco, Bianco, the gubernatorial race for California. We're trying to help either Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton. Tomorrow is going to be fiery right off the bat. 9 a.m. tomorrow morning. Take care, everybody. Bye, bye, bye, bye, bye. God bless.

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