PBD Podcast - Home Prices Reach Lowest Level In Over a Decade | PBD Podcast | Ep. 263 | Part 1

Episode Date: May 3, 2023

In this episode, Patrick Bet-David and Home Team will discuss: Bernie Sanders' call for the confiscation of wealth above $999 million New York bill requiring richer people to pay more for violations like parking tickets Whether DeSantis will stand a chance against Trump JP Morgan buying first republic bank Home Prices Reaching The Lowest Level In Over a Decade FaceTime or Ask Patrick any questions on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://minnect.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Want to get clear on your next 5 business moves? ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://valuetainment.com/academy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the channel to get exclusive access to perks:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/3Q9rSQL⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download the podcasts on all your favorite platforms⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/3sFAW4N⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbdpodcast/support

Did you ever think you would make it? I feel I'm so close, I can take sweet and thurry I know this lies meant for me Yeah, why would you plan on galiahs when we got fed David? Value came and giving values, contagious, this world of entrepreneurs We can't no value to hate, it's how to run Homie, look what I've become I'm the under one

I'm a yay Oh my gosh, we had to start it at this time because if we would have started at 10 seconds ago, 20 seconds ago, you would have had a, uh, heard a dirty joke by Tom. Yes or no? A bad joke. It was amazing. From Tom, having to do with something that vibrates a lot, but we're not going to talk about that.

We're not going to talk about that. And anyone... Hey, an epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... An epileptic... list. Yeah, in epileptic stock analyst. Anyways, we got jet in the house. Jetta Diabila in the house just crossed 200,000 subs. Put a link below if you haven't yet subscribed to go find her.

So we got Vinny Oshana come here about the rest of the house. We did a special clip recently. Me and you Jim Acastid. We were in Ukraine. A rush. Where was it at? We're in the fun to see it to see it. We're fun about you, Jane. Vinny's in the house.

We got Tom Ellsworth, BizDoc Monday morning in the house. He got a lot of stuff to talk about business. Obviously, we got a lot of stories to go through. Ton, to discuss. Jed is here to give us a point of view on what's going on with Tucker. Obviously, there's a lot to talk about. Who's going to replace him? You've been at Fox before.

You worked there. You worked with pretty much everybody. And so we want to see what you have to say about that. Tom's got some opinions about the market. I thought it was going to be Vinny, but today is going to be Tom. You're welcome. About what happened with first Republic Bank and FDIC. What happened there? Why is Jamie Diamond all excited about first Republic and partially getting the government to get involved to buy the dirty paper anyways. We'll talk about that big tech earning spark hope that the worst is over yet at the same time home prices in March posted biggest annual decline in 11 years.

There's a building, a 300 million dollar building in San Francisco. That's fully empty pretty much. And they're saying it'll trade possibly for $60 to $100 million today if you want to make an offer. No one's in that building and it's at the cream of the crop area in San Fran, Charlie Munger issues warning for commercial property market, which is not looking good for that. A story here, I almost didn't believe it until Vinny had to show to me over and over and over again, from transgender to transabled. Now people are choosing to identify as handicap.

I explained this to Jen last and she's like, babe, what are you talking about? I said, I'm telling you, this is a real story. Any, the average person you explain this to makes no sense. I know you have some thoughts on that. RFK junior poses, biological males competing in women's boards, Jets, you got thoughts on that. We have a surprising search of faith among young people, furious religious groups, combat, Satan, Khan, with intense prayer. Vinnie, you got some thoughts on that.

So this Jets, Vice is headed to bankruptcy pretty well, just a few years ago, it was a $5.7 billion company. Now, it's headed into bankruptcy. Times got updates on that. A bunch of things would run the Santas. How bad is it for run the Santas? He's polling at RFK's level. Run the Santas could unlock an $86 million presidential.

Run Bernie Sanders recently calls for confiscation of wealth for people above $900 and $99 million and Trump imitates Biden, which we should play that clip here in a minute when we get into it. And last but not least, Sanders said Biden could win in a land slide. But before we do that, let's talk about something important here, such as parking violations in New York City. So New York City Council introduces Bill requiring richer people to pay more for violations, like

parking tickets, double parking than the average person, meaning if you make more money, you pay more. And California is doing a similar thing as well. There, let me read this story. So this is kind of, this to me is strange to just think about it, say, hey, how much money you may glass you? Well, listen, your ticket's going gonna be $600 instead of $300 What a wild situation in New York. So here we go a new bill proposed by New York City Council would introduce a pilot program to scale civil fines

Such as parking tickets based on a person's income Making richer people pay more for these fines proponents of the bill argue that scale in the fees Would encourage more people to pay and ensure that the penalties are fair and paying more for these fines. Proponents of the bill argue that scaling the fees would encourage more people to pay and ensure that the penalties are fair and proportionate to person's ability to pay. The independent budget for office found that New York City's owed more than $2 billion in unpaid fines from just the last five years. The bill has to survive a hearing in the council to be reviewed by Mayor Eric Adams once it's introduced.

Similar programs exist in a handful of cities around the country and in Europe where technologies use to look up taxpayers' income to calculate fines. And by the way, California is doing a similar thing. Proposing, proposing charging customers based on how much money they make when it comes down to their electrical bill.

So if you make 180 or more, you could pay $85 or more for your electricity. Tom, what are your thoughts on this story? Folks, when you hear, when you hear them talking about Social Security and you hear the following words, means test. So when you see the riots that were going on in France or 10 years ago, they had a thing called austerity, which was riots about people had, were told they'd be retiring at a later age before they get their government pension, the pension would be smaller. We don't have to be economists to remember all that happened 10 years ago in Greece, and it's happening right now in France.

And you'll hear Social Security means test. Means if you have the means to pay, you're going to get less Social Security, or you're going to have to pay more for Medicare services. So that has been the kernel, the seed that is behind this. And now this is just expand. And by the way, there isn't doing this is because our government is, we can say broke. And we keep raising the debt limit,

which is nothing more than raising the credit card limit on the United States of America, from unpayable to dam and payable. And so what New York is doing is just picking up the same thing. They say, hey, the United States is broke. And some of you when you are old enough to get Social Security, if you can afford to pay for other things, you're going to pay for them. And you're not going to give you the Social Security because we're broke and we're going

to give it to middle class and these and people with lesser capabilities. But you people that are wealthy, it'll be a means test. You have the means to pay, then you don't get Social Security or Medicare or cost more, and now they're bringing it over to parking tickets saying, hey, wait, we have all this technology, what if we find out the guy, hey, he's a $400,000-dollar-year banker

and he parked his Mercedes S class here, and the meter ran out, maybe that should be $100 for him, that's $25, and that's what they're doing. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to socialism cannot can I ask you question though it's okay so liberals argument i'll give you the other side of the argument you ready well who came up with progress who came up with

i'm sorry i don't who came up with progressive taxes who came up with progressive taxes who came up with progressive taxes which president who was big on we should we should tax you know well ronor ragan even said we should tax you have progressive tax and we should do this and we should do that so even your own president was for print progressive tax

your your god of presidents ronor ragan proposes why shouldn't we have progressive tax when it comes on to parking fees electrical bills all these other things? What do you say to that argument? Well, I didn't support that policy by Ronald Reagan. So I think the response is that that was wrong. You know, conservatives have made mistakes many times. You have to be willing to call out your own side.

I mean, this is just standard penalization of wealth. I don't understand why anyone who's successful would live in a place like New York. I cannot imagine why someone like you, for example, who's been wildly successful in business and made a bunch of money. I can't imagine why, unless you had to, for some business reason, I lived in New York City for a long time because I worked in media. You had to be there.

It was horrible. But why would someone elect to live in a place that outright comes front and center and penalizes you for wealth, penalizes you for success as says there's a separate set of standards for you. The reason they're doing this is because there's bolt loads of people that, you know, you open up their glove compartment in their car and all that comes out are just parking tickets that have been unpaid. And most of those people are lower income. And you know what they say? They say, well, they're not going to come for me because there's this sense in places like New York City that they won't come for the so-called little guy.

But if you're making $405-600,000 a year, you're successful. Oh, how dare you. So it's just to me standard wealth penalization and in woke progressive, which are basically regressive bastions. Let me go to the next one, which kind of goes with this. Bernie Sanders calls for confiscation of wealth above 999.

Do you have this clip, a wrap, while you're pulling up this clip? Not billionaires. Leave millionaires alone. If you're not billionaires. If you go on Twitter and type in Sanders and Wallace, you'll show, just type it on the Twitter, Sanders Wallace, and that clip will show up. I'll read the story while you're looking forward,

because to stay on this messaging, for as long as you have, and people are listening to it, do me a favor, type in Wallace and Sanders, and then go to videos, it should be the first thing that pops up. If you go a little lower, right there, click on that one, make it bigger, and play it. Beautiful.

You're saying that billionaires should not exist. So are you basically saying that once you get $999 million, the government should confiscate all the rest? I'm saying that we should go back to a very progressive tax policy like what we had on the Dwight D. Which would mean that the, but after, okay. The $1 billion, basically, it all goes to the government. I knew they disagree with me.

I thought it was all of it goes to the government. Yeah, I think people can make it on $999 million. They're saying, you know, he doesn't say those. So you're money, you're at $999 million, right? But now you're, and vet, now you get, the rest is gone right but now you're and vet now you get the rest is gone But now you're investing and then when every single time it drips over They're just gonna keep taking your money. Yeah But here's the thing okay if the government could show

That when the money is given to you you pay off your debt You're in a better financial position and you make better investments that grow The GDP at a faster pace than the private market can do. Well then you have an argument, but you have a horrible resume of this, you know, give the money above $200 billion to the US government. Here's what he says. He announced a support for President Joe Biden and call for return to a very progressive tax policy that was like, that was under Dwight Eisenhower, he introduced new legislation in April call for the 99.9% act, which calls for wealthy years

to pay more on their inheritance by expanding the estate tax to 45% on a state's worth, at least three and a half million dollars, it would also impose a 65% tax on billionaires tax on a state states worth a billion 65% Parents worked hard for this money and now the government's gonna say no no We did more for you to make this money than you did give that money to us Tom What are your thoughts on this argument with Bernie?

Because it goes to me similar to what New York and California wants to do well I look at it this way. I don't see an argument what I see I really I don't see an argument You have to understand where Bernie's coming from. Bernie is not trying to argue about changing percentages and things in the structure of the current country. They want a restructuring of the company into a socialist, socialist construct supported by Marxist themes. That's what they want. They want to wholesale change the country So when you look at it and you and you sit inside of a a democratic capitalist, you know a freedom and liberty construct And these people say this to you you say you people are insane. Well, they are insane in that argument

They're not insane when they look at their argument and and their argument is, look, they're trying to convert this to a socialist construct. They don't care about the debt. They want the debt to crash the system. They want the outcome of that. There's no argument here that I see. What I see is them slowly pulling the rug out from under the construct of the countries we know it,

to get to their socialist paradigm supported by Marxist themes. That's what I see. That's the fundamental transformation of America that when you heard Barack Obama talking about in 2008 and people had a really hard time visualizing what that was. This is it and I think you know These people want mediocrity. They want you know, they want that and they want people who've done better than that That's correct. Mediocrity breeds dependency on the institutions they love. By the way, a lot of these Democrats are very big, former allies. It just, it also encourages people who have been successful to want to do what?

Pick up and leave. There's so many successful people now that don't even want to be in the United States anymore. They're like, where can I go? Because they see that this is seeping through and seeping through. My two messages to Bernie, one is it's not up to you. This is not your money. Somebody else has earned this money. It's not up to you to decide if a million is too much or 10 million is too much or a

billion is too much. It's not your money. Hands off people's money. It's not up to you. And secondly, Pat, you made a great point about, you know, what the government does completely inefficiently with that money. You can't trust that your money is going to be used well. And a lot of times these wealthy people will donate to charity, will do so much better

with their money than handing it over to government bureaucracy. That does what? Throws money at education, no results. Throws money at the military, no results. Throws money, where, what has the government government done well? If you can delineate from me, what the government has done well with your money, then you have an argument all the way. There's, you know, and by the way, here's the same guy that used to criticize millionaires and billionaires.

Millionaires and billionaires. Millionaires and billionaires, hey Bernie, you're a millionaire. All right, a billionaires and billionaires. A billionaires and billionaires. Right, right. Stand by for a quick edit. How would you feel, Pat? I mean, success feel like Jets head.

You're hitting that billion and all that money. You have no idea where it's going. And then you nail the jet. They're gonna send it to Ukraine. They're gonna send it to places where there's war and shit like that. And it's just like, you don't have the money to even open your mouth.

It's unbelievable. By the way, Jets said something very important. You have no right on what a person wants to do with their money. Stop trying to make decisions, thinking it's your money and it's your children. Those two things, leave the children alone and leave their money alone.

Both are theirs, dev pay the price for it, not you. But that's the core argument. The core argument is the children or the children of the state under the socialist construct. They are there and you didn't earn that. There is a structure around you and they argue energy, infrastructure, sewage, all these things, electricity.

That was there and your success was based on that. So you really don't deserve all this. And it goes back to Barack Obama. You didn't build that. Yeah, you didn't build that by yourself. All right, let's go to business story and then we'll get into a couple stories here with what's going on with Tucker.

So first, Republic has taken over by FDIC and sold to JP Morgan and third major bank failure in 2023. By the way, last week's story came out, their shares dropped 43%. 43% but there's a company that's capitalizing off of this and that company's name is JP Morgan so first Republic Bank has been taken over by federal regulators and will be sold to JP Morgan making it the third Major bank to go under in less than two months within two hundred two with two hundred twenty nine billion dollars and total assets

At the time of closure first Republic Bank has become the second largest bank failure in American history 90 days apart by the way has become the second largest bank failure in American history, 90 days apart by the way, losing about 40% of its deposit in the first quarter of the year, amid rising interest rates, and after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and signature bank, earlier this, you're causing a growing cohort of depositors to move their money to banks, seen as safer and offering more attractive returns as of mid-March. About 70% of first-public deposits were uninsured.

That's a big number, meaning they were larger than $250,000 guaranteed limit. The FDIC estimates the cost of first-republic receivership will be about $13 billion, less than the $20 billion that is estimated at the cost of Silicon Valley Bank. First-republics, 84 branches and eight states will reopen Monday as branches of JP Morgan

Chase Tom. Well, you know, some of you may walk down the street and quaint little towns and you'll notice a garage sale and you go up maybe buy a trinket, get lucky, find an old baseball card there. Jamie Diamond on the weekend walks down the street and buys banks. And this is the first republic. Do you take a check? The, and what is happening here is the consolidation of the banking industry, because ever since 2008,

the last crisis, things had become more and more lax. You have had a variety of things that have glassed eagle and other things that were designed to help it. But now you have banks failing except the FDIC Think of that as the deductible like when your car crashes you 500 other deductible at the body shop And then the other guy that crashed into you hopefully their insurance pays arrest Well, the FDIC a little sticker on the window. This is 250,000 other deposit. Think of that as the deductible But now Jan and Yellen when SVV crash they created that new vehicle that the banks can get their hands on, which protects $250,000 and up.

So it basically goes like this. It promotes irresponsibility, because now the banks can be very irresponsible, because FDIC will get part, Janet, Yellen and Treasury will get the other part, and then the bank will get bought because there's loans in there. There's car loans, home loans with good people,

and things, and JP Morgan says, all take those loans over here. I's car loans, home loans with good people and things and JP Morgan says, all take those loans over here. I'll collect the interest on them and I'll help you out. And so what is happening is a consolidation of banking and then unstable banks are failing. This is also, it's very interesting, is SVB and first republic. JP Morgan, specifically Jamie Diamond is trying to walk back into Silicon Valley to have a foothold there. I remember it was 2016, he was the first of the big banks and he came out in an annual banking letter and he said, listen, Silicon Valley is coming. They're smart, they're clever, they're going to take away consumer pain points and they're

not going away and they don't take prisoners. So he was warning the traditional banking industry of basically the looming thin tech. And he's trying to come back in and make himself, you know, relevant, make JP Morgan relevant. Three years later, he says, oh, you know, I just want you to know, Chase is not a tourist. We're not just visiting. He's not a lecture tour that we're doing here in Silicon Valley. We're here and we want to do things.

And so you're basically seeing Chase saying it wants to be the biggest. And they're not. I respect that. I respect that. I do too. I listen Sandy Wile had a chance when the whole story when Jamie Diamond used to work for

Sandy Wow. Sandy told Jamie do whatever you want to do, run the company. The first thing is Jamie Diamond does is fires his daughter. Say, very wild story. And then the wife says, what are you doing? You let the side fire your daughter. He said, you can't fire my daughter. He says, you told me to run the company.

He used to be a city guy. So everybody knows in that world if you're gonna talk about the Michael, the Kobe of this era, Jamie's the guy and he's not slowing down. And he's gonna be a guy that when you're thinking about someone's gonna be a company to buy everybody points at Jamie.

So he's done a great job. You gotta give him credit. But the question now becomes quietly as much as they wanna to downplay this, how many people are now sitting there saying, listen man, I'm not waiting anymore. We're part of a regional, we're part of a community, we're leaving, just go to one of the big five.

This is two in 90 days or 120 days. We're not talking about like $20 billion bank or 40, these are two, $200 billion banks we're talking about. 200, you know how big 200 billion is? If you were to look at some of the companies that we all know about Starbucks size if you go to you know Coca-Cola if some of these come nice How big are these companies? These are two hundred billion dollar companies. There's not that many two hundred billion dollar companies that we're talking about Tom who's next based on this who are they talking about I've heard a couple different names

I'm curious to know who you're hearing about being possible. I wish I had the whole list in front of me, but it's basically, there's a variety of list out there, and there's some ones that are right at the top that are stretched on the loans they made, and the things that they invested in, they invested some bonds, which are now have moved on the interest rate, meaning picture it this way, banks bought, I'll put it this way for gold

for the average person to understand. They bought gold high, now gold's low, and they can't have in trouble sell on the gold, and that's supposed to offset the loans they have. So it's like, whoops, you now can't sell the gold to pay off all your loans or to cover all your loans. What's very, there's another very interesting thing that's going on in the middle of this is what you just said, Pat, Goldman came out and they had a crappy earnings quarter, but they had a whole bunch more deposits.

Now where did that come from? Of course. Schwab came out and had actually a solid quarter, but they got a bunch more deposits. And Schwab was saying, you know, we were very surprised. Schwab has a money fund that's right around 4%. And that's fairly low risk. Like the lowest risk you can get is like a standard money fund. 4% may not seem like a lot until you think back

that mom and pa have been looking at interest rates of half a percent, 1% or nothing. And all of a sudden, Moneys be moved to money markets right now. And Moneys be made to moving markets, say, hey mom, mom, mom, talk about it, they say, well, at least we can get 4%

and we're not exposed to this zany that's going on in the stock market. So here's what's crazy. But the big guys who get in the deposits. Here's what's crazy. You know, the one conversation that's coming up is a lot about the dollar collapsing and people are fear and could this happen,

you know, since 1450, can you guess how many different currencies we've had since 1450? How many different world reserve currencies have we had since 1450? Can you name them? Tom, I'm curious enough you know about this or not. Wow. We have a video that's coming up on this specifically next week. Well, the US dollar is only since late 40s. It was a huge surge out of World War II and it became the world reserve. I think before that you had Great Britain pound. Okay, you got that one. And then at one point, didn't you have the gold back Spanish real, the Kings and Queens?

That's prior. So it's Portugal, it's Spain, it's Netherlands, then France, then Great Britain, then it's US and US is some say since 1921, but it's really 45. So the concern is, is it time for this, because it lasts about 80 to 100 years, that's about the timeline. And we've been around that number right now at about 78 years, 1945, we're about 80 years right now. So here's what it's leading to, people ask,

what should I do? You should consider investing into a non-duplicatable asset, such as what? Alternative investments, masterworks, are sponsored today, something you oughta consider doing. Art had a record breaking year last year in 2020 with all the fears. The top three auction houses had a record breaking year

of $18 billion last year. Art alone went up last year on an average of 29%. And it's been said the last time inflation was this high, contemporary art appreciated on an average of 29% and it's been said, the last time inflation was this high, contemporary art appreciated on an average of 20% per year from MW index. This is something you ought to consider. Everything they do at masterworks is qualified with the SEC and broken into shares,

meaning if you want to buy a bank see, a Picasso, any of these things that maybe you wore haul, you say, I can't afford to buy a $2 million piece, we can buy a share of it, ad masterworks. I think they have over 700,000 users now working with them. If you do want to be invited and join an exclusive community, Rob, let's put the link below for people to find ad masterworks. You will find a link both in the chat,

in the description about masterworks. This is really great because you can invest in a Picasso. And Picasso hasn't made a new painting in years. Yeah, he hasn't made it for years. I don't know why he stopped after he died. He stopped hiring himself. I can tell you why that happened sometime. I can tell you see somebody using that,

like as a bragging tool, like, hey, you know the, I'm only selling, like, you own, no, no, no, you know that red velvet rope that they have. I own that bright buckle and they're like, come on. Okay, so story came out, yet. How bad is it for DeSantis? He's polling at RFK's level. This is a CNN story that just came out. And Florida governor Ron DeSantis has been trying to appeal to his party's conservative base when moves such as signing a six week abortion ban and fighting with disney but his efforts have not paid off in primary republican polling a recent fox news poll shows him at twenty one percent

thirty two points behind present on our trump and comparable with nineteen percent at robber f kennedy uh... is receiving from the democratic side candidates polling in the low twenty is like the santa's have gone on to win with about twenty percent of the time, the Santas' decline is at least in part because of Trump's rise who has gone from the low to mid 40s to above 50% in the average 2024 polling. The Santas' plays to the right doesn't line up with where anti-Trump forces are within the Republican Party,

which includes a moderate wing that is least likely to want a ban on abortion after six weeks. By the way, this is a Fox News poll and we all know Fox is no longer Trump's camp. They want to send it. So what are your thoughts on the story? You know, I do think he's in trouble. I don't know. You know, when you watch his delivery sometimes, I mean, he's a great governor. I think we can all acknowledge that and rational people will see what he's done in Florida. And policy wise, I think he's on point. But I don't think this is about, oh, he's not moderate enough.

There's something about DeSantis' delivery, I think, that is going to have a hard time translating to the national stage. I think if you have, if you stuck him on a stage today and you put him and you put someone like a Donald Trump, I think Donald Trump destroys him. Absolutely destroys him. And that's not because of him, absolutely destroys him. And that's not because of policy, by the way. I think, you know, Trump has the, he may step into some potholes here and there when he

talks about, you know, the vaccine, he may stop and just, he's going to get himself into trouble when he talks about policy. And he's also going to be part of a legacy that people may reject. He also has the January 6th stuff. There's a lot of baggage that he has, but there's something about his ability to captivate an audience about his charisma, about his capacity to own that stage that the Santa's doesn't quite have. There's something missing there.

Now also you have this rift right now in the Republican Party. I don't know that the Trump voters who are really passionate about Trump, I don't know if all of those go over to DeSantis. I don't think that the DeSantis voters necessarily go over to Trump. So I think this rift is going to be an issue. I think we're going to need to let me if Republicans want to win. We're going to have to decide. First of all, is there an official run here from DeSantis?

What does that look like? Also, all of this travel that he's doing, this world tour that he did, where he's everywhere, but there's no official announcement. I think that rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. People don't understand what his strategy is. Is your strategy to be this fantastic, incredible governor in Florida with a great record? Is your strategy to move on to the national stage? And I don't think people know what to do with all of this chaos right now. Because if DeSantis moves out of the way and says, I'm not doing it, then I think things look very different for Trump. If DeSantis is in the game, then people have to start thinking about this differently.

I don't know what's going to happen here, but he is missing something. He's missing that star power that you don't necessarily need as a governor, but you do need on that national stage. You really do. It makes a huge difference. And you know why you need it. I know you wanna say something. You know why you need it. Here's why you need it.

So, you don't need it all the time. I mean, Biden's got zero star power. That's different. But that's what I'm saying to you. But Biden has zero star power, right? I think Sanders has star power, right? If you think about Bernie Sanders, forget about his policies. ludicrous, but he's got star power, right? I think Sanders has star power, right? If you think about Bernie Sanders, forget about his policies. Oh, yeah.

Zluidicris, but he's got star power, right? Yeah. Obama star power. Oh, yeah. Okay, Clinton star power, right? You look at John Kerry, no star power, right? John F. Kennedy star power, Nixon, no star power. You can go back and say, well, that's not necessarily true

in the history of all this other stuff. The problem he's facing, the guy that's part of his party that's leading right now has been a star before he was born. Yeah. Because his mom and his dad were stars and that, you know, they were in the parties, they were all, so he's grown up in a way it's unfair to DeSantis because DeSantis has not been in the, you know,

limelight, Hollywood, you know, stars, parties, networking, charm, charisma, selling, all this stuff. He's been more the doer. I'm gonna get the job done. But now when the camera lights, everything is on action, you gotta gotta show up, you know, and the way it happened with his books, there was not a lot of performance there, Tom.

Jetta, I'm gonna dig in a little bit on what you just said because it's very interesting. You were saying that thing. And I've always I've set back and I've always believed that Bill Clinton could have carried the day on any other president or candidate including Obama. I think actually he would have been more tenaciously, factually, a stronger debate with Obama. I think actually he would have been more tenaciously, factually, a stronger debate with Obama. And the American voter right now kind of is short attention span theater. I think we could probably agree on that. And they're easily impressionable. DeSantis doesn't have that charisma there that Trump does, the stage presence. So what do you think that Trump does, the stage presence. So what do you think happens over the course of the summer?

You know, we've got a tough economy. Just short attention span theater carry the day on the GOP side, or do people back up and start thinking maybe a little bit more rationally about economics to start looking at the Sanctus record? I don't have a bias here. I actually don't have an opinion yet.

I'm kind of watching like everybody else, but you dig into it. No, I don't think that that need for the entertainer ever goes away. And I always said this, if you're not entertaining people, they're not listening. So you can be a doer, and you can be incredibly efficient. And Ron DeSantis is.

You know, he's that guy that you hire if you want to get stuff done, right? That's great. But he's not the guy you hire if you want to convince people to vote for him to get that stuff done. So, I mean, and the other option is, you know, does this become a team? I don't know. They've been taken, you know, Trump's been taking a lot of jabs at DeSantis, but truly,

if you paired them, then you have the efficiency of Iran DeSantis. You have the record of Iran DeSantis, and you have the powerhouse personality of a Donald Trump. That's a very interesting ticket to me. You mean President VP? You know what Giuliani said, it can't happen because they're both residents of Florida. Oh, yeah, that's right. You can't do that because they're both from Florida. But that's what you need.

So like if say it's Trump, he needs to be looking for someone. He doesn't need that big personality. He needs somebody who is a doer. In the same way that Ron DeS He doesn't need that big personality. He needs somebody who is a doer. In the same way that Ron DeSantis doesn't need a doer. He needs the personality. So that's the complimentary structure that works. GOP voters will not just push to the side and say, oh, the economy is, let me vote based on issues.

Let me get practical right now. That actually goes very much against most people's human nature. They want someone who they're gonna want to sit and hang out with. And right now, Rhonda Santos is reading a little bit too much like a politician or a businessman. He needs to read more like someone that you'd want to have a beer with. That's just a reality. You don't have to like that reality, but it is when again, what gets somebody like this. Not with, but now let me just address Biden for a second, though, because you said,

first of all, it's very different with Democrats. Everyone media at large, Hollywood at large, everyone rushes into help Democrats. They actually have to be less entertaining and bring a lot less to the table because they have so much in their favor, but Biden used to be a funny guy. I interviewed him on the set of the view.

We had him on. He was funny, he was likeable. I walked away, he whispered in my ear, hey, don't tell him, you won't, but I'm a big fan. You know, we had a great discussion, he was very charismatic, but that, and he was that guy, right? He knew what to say, this that he, get a little grab their,

he definitely, he definitely, he didn't approach your hair. Oh, no, there is a picture. Can he smell your hair? He smelled your hair, it was a picture out there of him, like leaning in and I'm like, and everybody didn't even on that. So funny.

But he had a person, you know, he's just, he's not present anymore, but he doesn't need to be. Republicans need to be everything and more right now to get elected. You know, I think it is no, and you were talking, Jen, you were talking about that missing thing. Trump is a vet, he's not a veteran in military

like the Sandes is, but he's a veteran of the media and the gut Everybody that that swamp that he was talking about he's that he stood in the front lines He fought these people he won they cheated on him He's still got there and look at all the shit that he does a patriotic He's a gangsta look at those thanks-givings where he showed up around the world at places I got to say some boys He is a boss. He is a leader. But the scary thing

is Jed that look what they're doing. They did all this investigation. All this whatever. Now Trump is number one. The Santhus is barely hanging on the left. We have to ask ourselves a question. Why is the left so one and Trump in there? Because they think that they can get his ass off. So so so here's, so Blue Ocean strategy. We just interviewed the authors for two hours and we had a very interesting conversation about ESGDI. If you guys know about that book, I've probably sold 100,000 copies of that book. I love that book.

If you've never read it, you've got to read it. It's the number one or number two best marketing book in the history of business books behind Tidewood, Michael Porter, competitive strategy and top ten best business books of all time. The book's a five and a half million copies, incredible book. They got a new book coming out called Beyond Disruption. It's a great conversation. Everything in life, you have to look at yourself

as a product, your company, your country. Anything you do is a blue ocean concept. So what can I compete to do? Like if you're trying to date a girl and you're going up against Larry, okay? And if Larry comes from a rich family and this guy's family is rich and he's the quarterback and he's the guy, the jack, all this other stuff

but he's really dumb, okay? But he's extremely handsome. However, from your end, you're a competitive swimmer and you have this and your background is rugged and you're coming from streets and you kind of like this, you can't go and try to compete with them in an area that he's got you beat. You're not gonna win, bro.

You're just not gonna win, okay? In the blue ocean concept. Okay, if we look at America against other countries, so other countries' argument could be like in Iran, I'll never forget when I'm sitting with my mom and my mom was supportive of Chomene, because the fear they had is look what Iran's losing. It's losing its conservative values.

Women are out there wearing this and they're no longer wearing scarfs and they're becoming hookers and they're literally woman in iran were afraid that by giving too much freedom to women uh... their daughters could one day end up becoming street girls all this other stuff so that was how was sold but iran realize you can sell to woman of iran you can be free you can do what you want to do can do this now we have to are give our argument that's different than Iran than US because if we talk about freedom You're gonna lose to US, right? Let's do the sentence against everybody else here right now, okay?

Charisma you're gonna lose charm you will lose, okay? Policies you will win, okay Leadership and doing it during COVID when it was so nasty you won't win you will win, okay? Leadership and doing it during COVID when it was so nasty. You won't win. You will dominate, okay? When it comes down to getting into a fight, can you stand up? Yes. When you do interviews and somebody's not in your ear trying to make you look perfect and you're just yourself and you're the tough guy that's going out there and pushing, challenging, all that stuff, that's a turn on. And you're like, and you're the tough guy that's going out there and pushing challenging all that's up

That's a turn on and you're like here's what I stand for I think if a marketer sits down as does do it blue ocean strategy You're not gonna beat him in this game Ruby and cruise tried and they got destroyed So don't try to play that game But if there's one thing about the Santas if he goes and they push him and he fights, he's in more, you know, opportunities to debate somebody, opportunities where to have a ban towards somebody on TV, going on CNN, going on MSNBC and they're pushing them and he comes back and says, what about this and what about that and what about this and what about that?

I think he wins there because I think naturally he is a street brawler. But I feel like he's being held back from brawling. I think that is something that is a strength. I think someone in his years not letting brawler down. I think he's guarded. He's very guarded, but he has a likability problem. If you think about, I mean, you talked about Rubio and Cruz, Rubio and Cruz are not likable. I don't want to hang out with either of them. I don't.

I think a lot of people would probably find themselves saying the same thing. Not that you don't want them to run something, but again, I'm talking about like, can you imagine Ron DeSantis excelling the way Trump does? When Trump goes to a small town and he walks into the Pizzeria and he's like, hey, everyone and he has the Pizzeria, he has the bite of the McDonald's hamburger or whatever that is, he shines. He is a man of the people in those moments. He can't compare DeSantis to that.

He has to be able to do that though. De. He has to be able to do that though. Decent has to be able to do that. You think he's not going to win an election if he can't appeal to people in a way that resonates with him? So for example, they don't like him. They're not voting for him. Do you remember the Ducaca story where he came on the tank? Do you know that whole story?

Oh my gosh. Where after that, it was, do you know the story with Ducacas and the tank? No. Rob, do you know the story or no? Just type Ducakis and tank. This is when he was over with. Tom, do you want to tell us what the story is about? So Michael Ducakis has to look like, you know, a little bit of, a little bit of all America.

I'm going to be a commander in chief and I'm just a governor up here and they're criticizing me for being a brainy little governor. So what he did was he went out writing around in this tank, taking a tour of a military facility. And Bush, remember, this is Bush senior, Herbert Walker Brush. Bush looks at that and they're like, oh, this guy's, this, thank you. Thank you, Jesus destroyed. Thank you for this picture and everything. He came out, he was destroyed because number one, he didn't look presidential. presidential number two he didn't look like a commander chief he looked like a geek and he had really he had let Willie Horton out of jail only did commit another crime and so his

back was up against the wall and it's basically he looks like he's from the Middle East yeah he do that looks like a tell him in no he looks like he's in high school he's my second cousin of something like a related he's in a high school play about looked like he's my second captain of something, like we're related. He's in a high school play about Vietnam. Who's what this is? But here's the point I'm trying to make. I'm trying to make a point about what Jet is saying. Here's a point. Okay, work in the Santa's Excel,

if he does videos and clips and things like that. Hang out with Navy SEALS. Go to the military, because guess what, they know you. Go hang out with Navy SEALS. We all respect SEALS. You were a commander of Navy SEAL team. Go around Navy SEALS. What do we think about when we think about SEAL Team Six? What do I think about when we think about Navy SEALS. We all respect SEALS. You were a commander of Navy SEAL team. Go around Navy SEALS.

What do we think about when we think about SEAL Team 6? What do I think about when we think about Navy SEALs? Imagine he's going out there sitting there with 20 other Navy SEALs that respect him. He's talking about the great work that they do. All of us and we're like, oh my God, this guy's a Navy SEAL. He was a command, he wasn't a Navy SEAL team. There is things that he, others cannot do that. You were not a military.

You were not an A, you were not an amyleter. So you don't understand, I think the positioning for him, if he goes direct to what Trump naturally has been doing in New York, and nationwide, I think he's gonna get destroyed. Paz, does he have to hire a, my pat, because you talked about this on the Giuliani thing, about his marketing team, how they weren't doing a great job, especially with the boy.

I'm making a phone call to Blue Ocean's strategy consultant, and I'm hiring them low key. Go with that question, go with that line. I know where you're going, I want to follow up. Go. Basically, on this thing, he's like, Pat, Pat, you're right now, Decentre, I got the Navy Seal thing thing. But are you going as a right now, Pat?

Are you just getting aggressive and going out there? Because you know, he has to work out that muscle, Pat. That Decentre has a little bit of it, because I think he got that from Trump. He kind of takes his cues on how he talks to the media, but he hasn't had that really fight, that big argument with any media outlet where you're like, oh shit, this guy, he's good. So here's something that I saw.

The people that have been at school and served and knew DeSantis from Yale and from his time as a Jag, which was Judge Advocate General in the Navy. Also the same thing that getting an argument with the sky or getting in debate with the sky. Let me correct this first. DeSantis joined the United States Navy in 2000, promoted to Lieutenant before serving as a legal advisor to seal team one. Just want to put that out there. So everybody knows. Go ahead Tom. Yeah.

Correct. He was a jagged. So he was a little jagged advocate, which is a lawyer in the Navy, and he was working with seal team one. It says, you know, you can't prosecute these guys. The bad guys deserve the guy. So that's what he was basically doing for law. But what he did, do you remember when he got in, when he wasn't so packaged, right now what you're seeing

is political consultants and other people packaging the candidates, and I know Jets got an opinion on this and can amplify it. She's got more information I do on this, but the consultants package candidates, the same way you get packaged and produced when you're on a show, on TV. Do you remember during the debate,

why is Florida open? What the hell are they doing down there? And they allowed some of the media to get close and ask unscripted questions. Do you remember what that governor with his rolled up sleeves from the podium was telling people? No, no, no, no, no, no, you don't tell me.

I'm leading this state and this is what we're doing. Remember that? Remember that? You had a leader. That was unscripted., you don't tell me, I'm leading this state and this is what we're doing. Remember that? You had a leader. That was all scripted. They're trying to pack what you might think. You know, the thing is though, like what DeSantis is missing for me. And I, by the way, I'm a fan of his policies. I am, but what he's missing is very hard to teach.

It's very hard to teach. I would rather, if you had to hire me for that role, I would rather have to teach Trump how to change what he's doing because he's got stuff that's so hard to teach that charisma. You can't teach it to Hillary Clinton. People on the Democrat side have been trying to teach her how to be likeable, how to relate to people. There's like a film over her. And what DeSantis needs to lose is this politician vibe.

He doesn't read as like a non-politician. That's what Trump has. That's why he's considered a hero to people who believe in populism. I think it's going to be very hard. Is that to say that DeSantis can't overcome it? No, no, but it's going to be really challenging for him because I don't think it's natural for him. I don't think you can hire a media consultant.

And by the way, most of the times the people that get hired by these politicians are people who don't know how to do media. I'm always like, I'm like, just hire somebody who understands this game, who gets charisma, the times the people that get hired by these politicians are people who don't know how to do media. I'm always like, I'm like, just hire somebody who understands this game, gets charisma, they never hire those people. But even if you hired somebody, I think it's going to be really hard to push to Santa's. He reads, like you said, he's a lawyer for the sales, he reads like the lawyer. He doesn't have that blue collar vibe.

And that's really what most of America is, right? We're really just regular people. I grew up behind the Staten Island dump. Like I wanna feel like somebody gets my struggle and he's too polished. If he can lose that, I think he can climb. I don't think in a year, I don't think in a year, Tom. That's just my personal opinion.

But let's not forget, we live in Florida now, right? We came here because we heard this guy speaking DeSantis is Florida famous. Trump is international, bro. Everybody knows who he is. Everybody knows the attitude. I don't think I don't think a year is gonna be on for that.

I think a lot of people think. Even the loan and letting B who he is. How do America see the package? You said Hillary, you know, on what Hillary did. You know who destroyed Hillary Clinton's campaign? It was game over the day she went on the Zac Galifanacus show Jack It's responsible for Hillary Clinton never remember the president on a dark

He was on a dark Yeah, if I need a contact you could I email you? If you're going to contact you, can I email you? Honey, you're dying. He destroyed her campaign. By the way, just something on the census before we wrap up. He's got $86 million waiting for him. Florida is going to run the census. If he plans to enter the presidential primary using an $86 million pot of donor money in

a legally questionable way, this is a WSJ story, Wall Street Journal story. If he goes there, he has potentially access to this. That's a good amount of money, but Jeb Bush started with $140 million day one, and he's not the president. Also not teach ball by the way. Jeb Bush knows all about that. I think those are very two different people. That's true.

I think those are very two different people. Look, can you imagine if he can't announce anything yet until he locks in his governor's seat position which I think he has to wait a week or something like that to make an announcement. Imagine him having a list interest. He has to listen to all of this commentary on social news and it's he's sitting there saying I'm going to kill you guys the moment I come like I'm going to come I'm going to be like thank God this thing is off let me talk'm running, here's what we're doing.

I mean, hopefully it comes out like that, man. Maybe something shows up when he looks at it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's exciting. Maybe it is, maybe it is. Maybe we all like a good fight. We'll see what happened. So real estate, Tom, real quick, real estate story in regards to what happened with mortgage

as home prices and March posted biggest annual decline in 11 years, biggest annual decline in 11 years. It fell 2.4% at March to an annual rate of 4.4 million marking the 13 time in 14 months that sales have declined. According to National Association of Realtors, the March drop follows February's surprise rise of 13 and three quarters from the previous month

to slow down in a housing market as now affecting prices, which fell 0.9% year on year to median existing home price of $375,000. Folks, there's nothing in Florida. South Florida at $375. This is places like Toledo, but the housing market is slowing down due to rise

to mortgage rates, high home home prices and low inventory levels housing starts which measure US home building fell 0.8% in March from February according to Commerce Department the number of new listings in March fell 20% year over year while the inventory of home sales is 1% higher than in February and up 5.4% year over year. The cooling housing market is caused by a cooling economy, the prospect of a recession within the year, the high inflation, which is being fueled

by housing costs, prices. Tom, while I'm reading this story, what, you know, a Powell is getting ready to potentially do something with the rates. What do you know about what he's gonna do? Is he going to raise rates? We're hearing mixed stories from a lot of different people. What do you expect going to happen? Well, if Kai will get the t-shirt up for sale, we have the...

2028. It says, fight inflation, save the cheerleader. It's up there somewhere, Kai. You've got to get it into the storefront on Value Temptime. What a stamp. Go ahead, keep going. So, here's what's happening. Powell is coming up, I believe, in the next, he's heading up the stairs right now because the Fed is meeting right now and there's gonna be announcements in the next 24 hours

and then also a jobs report by Friday, Sanco de Mayo, in which we're gonna hear, I think, a quarter point increase. And then, but we're also going to hear him say that we believe we've turned the corner on things. And so there may not be further increases in June and in July. And maybe when we get toward the end of the year, probably November timeframe, maybe we can see the first rate decrease. So that is what interest rates are looking like right now, that maybe were right there on the edge of it.

Now, what does all this stuff mean on the home prices? Well, that means that interest rates are still high, people are reluctant to put their homes on the market. Right now, there's only 980,000 listings available in these United States, 980,000. That is the lowest it's been in years. And that's resulting in what it says is home sales have fallen to an average of 4.4 million a year.

There's about 100 million sellable homes in America. So they're saying only about 4.4 million of those will trade hands. In a strong year, it's usually about 10 million trade hands, like 1 in 10. So what do we have right now? People that have put their houses on the market, the price is still high and they're reluctant to drop it because no buyers are approaching, so there's no reason to drop it, no other houses are on the market, there's no competition on their block, there's no reason to drop the price.

So low inventory gives consumers few choices and prices aren't dropping and even if they could afford it, the interest rates on the mortgages are too high. Meaning very few transactions happen and that's what they were talking about here is US home sales fell. That's not home prices folks. That's a number of transactions. So your friend who's a realtor, less work. Your friend who's a mortgage broker, less work, working for a title company, anybody that's in real estate, it's got less work and having a tough time, but there's no recession here, but there's no recession. No, they changed the definition in real time. Remember that.

So that's what's going on, Pat. But we're going to see, I think, Drone Powell's gonna be, you know, walking back down those stairs out of breath on Wednesday afternoon, after, given the cheerleader one more shot, and another point of time. So Tom, do you think even with all the stuff that's going on and his lack of concern for the cheerleader, and with the numbers that they're seeing,

Silicon Valley Bank, and then, you and then first Republic, how many people think are calling him saying, dude, what are you doing? The more you raise the rates, there's more banks. We can't afford it. How many people think are trying to get that message across to him? Of course we know who's not making that call. Who isn't making that call? Jamie Diamond, I'm making that call.

Jamie Diamond is making a call and saying, hey, Jerome, listen, if you want to raise the rates even more, go for it, I will totally support you. I understand. It's not fair. What's going on? You're on the Jamie, maybe it's a precaution. Take a half point this time.

Just a precaution. Right. But he knows, you know, who wins the more he increases the rates. The big banks. The more he increases the rates, the more big banks win. The less he increases the rates, the less smaller banks win. So do you think people are making that call? Do you think the White House is making the calls?

Do you think the chairman and CEO of banks are calling and saying, hey, can you relay this message to Powell? Or do you think none of that is taking place right now? I think everybody is calling. There's a group of board of governors for the Fed that I'll vote on this, but Jay Powell is the leader. And I think you're correct. Everyone is calling him. And I think it's going to be a good synchro to my own for one part. And this is what I mean by it. I think the jobs report

is not going to be catastrophic, but these layoffs are going to be very real. But I think Jay Powell is going to come out and say this quarter point, and I think we're at a moderation of inflation. I think maybe we have turned the corner a prudence of a flat policy over the summer. If he says phrases like that, everybody's going to say, oh, the worst is over. And you're going to see a stock rally this week, I believe, and that ends on Cinco de Mayo. But on Main Street, it isn't Cinco de Mayo yet. On Main Street, it isn't Cinco to my oh yet. On Main Street, it's still layoffs housing as we've talked about. And yeah, Pat, I think there's many sectors that are out there that wish, look, if he wants to really, okay, we'll use another word here,

if he really wants to goose the economy, then all he does is he drops things to points tomorrow morning and makes cheap money out there. He's not but he's not I don't think that's the right move. I think history is gonna be kind to J. Powell that he was able to tame inflation without cataclysmic unemployment, but I think there is gonna be a bit of a recession. People are saying 89% chance. You got the Wall Street bankers today One people are saying 89% chance. You got the Wall Street bankers today. 86% chance on a wide survey of Wall Street bankers and analysts saying we're going to have a recession. Probably Q4, Q1 is what people are now pointing to.

That's all part of getting through the inflation and getting back to the wrong. So here's what Berkshire is Charlie Munger just said. He issued warning for US commercial property. Charlie Munger has said he issued warning for US commercial property. Uh, uh, uh, uh, Charlie Munger has issued a warning about the US commercial property market saying that the banks are full of bad loans as property prices fall. Munger noted that banks were already pulling back from lending to commercial developers and that there are a lot of trouble office buildings and shopping centers saying there's a lot of agony out there. Munger also said that the Berkshire Hathaway had supported troubled US banks in the past, and that it is not that damn easy to run a bank intelligently.

There are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing, which a lot of people have done that. There's a 300 million dollar building story that was going out there in San Francisco. If you can pull up the picture here, it's a fire sale, 300 million dollar building in San Francisco office tower mostly empty open to offers But look at that. This is on California Street. It's the perfect location. Yep. If you can get past the needles in the feces It's on California street And the lobby the lobby is beautiful, but just outside the lobby. There's a little bit of a funk little smell But if you get past that smell, this is actually a great building in what has been historically a great commercial address.

This was worth $300 million in 2019. It's a 22 story building and is expected to sell $60 million. Guys, from $300 million, this is Wall Street Journal's story is expected to sell for $ 60 million bucks cream with a crop San Francisco. Do you know they're expecting anywhere between one and a half trillion dollars to three trillion dollars, high low of defaults in commercial real estate because they're about to be

called with the new rates. They're not going to be able to make a lot of these payments. So, it class A, and right now the biggest building in forlotted, I want to look at it this week to see if there's any interest I wanted to buy. It's the biggest building in forlot of that one I looked at it this week to see if there's any interest I wanted to buy it's the biggest building in forlot of how many score feed is it we looked at it? It's a 400,000 score. Yeah, it's it's it's mammoth. We're talking we're talking multiple partner companies we could have in there We're talking campus. It's huge. It's it's massive 400,000 square foot building. You've seen this building. It's off a federal Okay, and you know who's running nowadays?

Commercial Real Estate class A, businesses are not running those types of offices to date, so very, a lot of things has happened to commercial real estate the last three days. If there's any sector of the market, specifically real estate, that got hit because of COVID, it's commercial real estate. You know what is doing well in commercial real estate? Industrial buildings.

Because industrial, they need spaces to go under to manufacturing, do all this other stuff. But when it comes down to the high rises, this is going to be just the beginning. Guys with cash in the next 6, 12, 24 months are going to have some very, very weird opportunities to buy buildings. There's going to be so many options going on right now.

If you got cash, you could pick up some real nice properties today, specifically commercial real estate.