PBD Podcast - Home Team | PBD Podcast | Ep. 311

Episode Date: October 6, 2023

Today on the PBD Podcast, Patrick Bet-David, Adam Sosnick, Tom Ellsworth, and Vincent Oshana will discuss a wide variety of political and economic current events. Skip the waitlist and invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: https://www.masterworks.com/pbdpodcast Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. See important Masterworks disclosures: http://masterworks.io/cd Vault to the top. Be your best. Feel your best. Achieve your best. Vault Brain drinks will unlock your brain to help you be your best you. Try the new Vault Drink today! www.vaultdrinks.com Connect With Experts On Minnect: https://app.minnect.com/ Visit our website: https://valuetainment.com/ Subscribe to our channel: http://bit.ly/2aPEwD4 Subscribe to: Adam Sosnick - @ValuetainmentMoney Vincent Oshana - @ValuetainmentComedy Tom Ellsworth - @bizdocpodcast Want to get clear on your next 5 business moves? https://valuetainment.com/academy/ Join the channel to get exclusive access to perks: https://bit.ly/3Q9rSQL Download the podcasts on all your favorite platforms https://bit.ly/3sFAW4N Text: PODCAST to 310.340.1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller Your Next Five Moves (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbdpodcast/support

Did you ever think you would make it? I feel I'm so close, I could take sweetly thick doughnuts. I know this life meant for me. Yeah, why would you bet on the lieth when we got bad David? Value payments, giving values, contagiousness, World of entrepreneurs, we can't no value that hate it. I'd be running home, you look what I've become. I'm the entrepreneur.

Become homey. What was that Tom? He's really coming home. Oh, wow. Okay, that's great. Well, today at home team gang, we got a lot of stories that we haven't covered due to guests that we've been having. I said, last minute, why don't we do a home team?

And we're doing it an hour typically before we do the podcast. So, California is 5 a.m. Many people are probably not even awake yet for this podcast. But those of you that are with us, fantastic. Let's 5 a.m. Many people are probably not even awake yet for this podcast, but those of you that are with us Fantastic, let's get right into it a lot going on economy 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.8% a 16-year high banks are bracing for a recession as Treasury yields surge mortgage rate Races towards 8% after hitting a high not seen late 2000, and Thomas said they're about to increase the possibly the rates again, and if they do,

the rest of the year is going to be very, very interesting. Many will have to praise for impact. There's a jobs report that came in September's jobs report. There's a lot of things in it. A couple strikes going on. People that this was the year of investigation, a year of strikes, gang, wait till you hear the wrecking, breaking strike that's taking place right now. And it will go into what Putin's doing.

Putin says Russia has tested next generation nuclear weapons. And they said Russia's mission is to create the new world, not be part of the new world order, but to create the new world, not be part of the new world order, but to create the new world. GOP holds the biggest lead on economy since 1991. We see what happened to Starbucks in San Francisco. Very interesting that it coincides with what happened with Nancy Pelosi.

Jamie Dimon says AI could bring, not four day work week, but he was aggressive. He said three and a half day work. Wow. Three and a half day work week, but he was aggressive. He said three and a half day work. Wow. Three and a half day work week is what he's saying. It's coming here soon. And then outside of that American apocalypse, 71% of Americans don't believe the US government is able to prevent Doomsday. Trevor Bauer's accuser, Lindsay Hall, opens up on text and video claims, and even Trevor Bauer finally shows videos, and it's done, done, but they stole two years of his life. And I would say probably $100 million of this guy's life

on what they did, and it's permanent. That story's gonna stick around for a while. World Economic Forum Advisor says the coming water crisis will force people to accept climate mandates and America's non-religious groups growing outside of that. The last story I'll tell you here that we'll get into, which is very annoying. Adults shouting, by the way, this is a CNN story.

So adults check the sadvening. Adults shouting at children can be as harmful to a child's development as sexual or physical abuse. Let me read this to you one more time folks. It sounds like you're joking. Adults shouting at children can be as harmful to a child's development as sexual or physical abuse. So again, just absolutely insanity

when you're hearing the story like that. But why don't we do this? Why don't we go into a story, and then we'll go to our sponsor, and then we'll get into the podcast. So strike, Tom, why don't you lead the way? Tell us what's going on with these strikes. So we've been talking about the Hollywood strike,

and we've been talking about the UAW strike. But in the last 48 hours, the largest strike in US history happened as the healthcare workers walked out. Oh, great. So what is happening is could it be that in the mind of the worker, the unionized worker, and unions, remember, in private unions, maybe private companies, we're not talking about teachers unions or government unions,

those are public unions, these private unions, people are looking around and saying, wow, stock markets up, look at the people are looking around and saying, wow, stock markets up, look at the amount that CEOs make and everything, the economy seems to pop back after COVID, and inflation's hurting me, I want to be paid more. And so how do you unionize people do it? They negotiate, and when that doesn't work to their liking of big jumps, they go on strike. And so all the talk about Hollywood over the last two and a half months, all the talk about the UAW and the auto workers,

what's happening to potentially the price and availability of cars as workers aren't working, yet 48 hours, last 48 hours, the largest strike in US history happened, healthcare workers. How many is that? 75,000 went out on day one. I saw that and the race they're asking for is what?

What's the raise they're asking for? It's the standard 20 to 40% and then they're trying to find out where that soft landing and the negotiation is gonna be. So how different is this one than the other strikes that are taking place? I don't think it's very different at all. It's like they are trying to make up for lost time and they're all getting pinched by inflation.

So the argument that they're making is one is economic and saying, and I can't even afford to buy eggs, you know. But on the other side is, hey, we haven't had cost of living increases. That's an argument in a beef with the employer. Well, our cost of living increases haven't kept pace with inflation. Well, if cola was keeping pace with inflation, last year's cola would have been 16.5%. Tom, back to two years. How much of this, we've seen the Hollywood writer's strike, we've seen the actor's strike, we've seen the United Auto workers,

now we're seeing healthcare, this is like breaking news, right? How much of this is tied to inflation, cost of living increases, how much of it is tied to AI, especially in the writer's strike, makes some sense of the common thread of what's actually happening with all these strikes. I can't remember a time where it's... Strike strike strike strike.

We've seen the teacher union do this every once in a while. Makes sense of this for us time. So the AI, you bring up a really great point, is what there's a lot of factors in here. And so Adam, I think the AI is not as prevalent in these union and manufacturing and the jobs. I don't think AI hits those jobs. I don't think AI hits the worker on the assembly line. The use of robotics does, but that's how AI.

What's happening here is these people are regular citizens, nieces, nephews, aunts, uncles of everybody in this room. They are out there and they have felt the effects of now three years of inflation, which I added up to 16 and a half percent on core, 24% if you add in energy and things like that. So they're feeling that effect. That's not the fault of the employer.

But the colas across the living increases, 2%, 3%, 2% that were in the last union contract, haven't kept up with that. So they're like, hey, look at the stock market, look at corporate profits, look at what the CEO made. You know what, look at what happened with inflation, I can't afford to buy eggs. So they're going out on strike. Part of it is a lag in normal COLA and the other half of it, man, they're trying to make

ends meet and they have one employer, but they're armed with the union contract and so they're striking. So you're saying it's not necessarily the fault of the employer, we get that, right? Especially big corporations at the same time. Probably 64 outfits have been up. What about regular businesses out there? Because most people here that listening aren't running Fortune 500 companies, they're running small businesses, 100 employees, if not last or more. How is it affecting those types of companies as well?

To answer your first question, I think it's 60-40, 60% the economy and 40% the company. Because remember, these are union contracts and you know they're dissatisfied with the union contract, the minute they sign it, right? From that moment, the average union worker is dissatisfied with the contract because there's all the stuff we didn't get in the contract. Well, we'll wait three years and next time we'll go get them. And I think it's 40% the economy. So I think there was a simmering frustration and the inflation over three years on Biden

omics, boom, put a match on that on that. I also drive straw. I think there'd be an opportunistic. What is this article saying five things to know about the strike and a goal of the law? So because if you're a patient, pat like how do the five people that are sick? You know, I mean, Tom, I think I know you go to the lower. So, uh, uh, Because if you're a patient, Pat, like, what the, like, how do the five people that are sick? You know, I, you know, I mean, Tom, I think I know you're going, Pat, I agree with that word.

I think, I think everybody else should. Yeah, I think it's purely, I, it's kind of like, you know, all the houses in your community, sell for two times what you about two years ago, and people are gonna be like, do it, I'm selling, I'm selling, I'm selling, I'm selling, I'm selling, cash in.

That's capital, that's, that's cash in on strikes right now. So, five things you need to know, workers are mainly striking in California, Colorado, Oregon. You can still see your doctor during the strike. Lab tests may take longer, your surgery may be rescheduled or old spone. Oh, wow, it's not good.

It's convenient if it's a triple bypass. Your prescription may take longer to get. So 75,000, I looked at it right now. They're asking for 25% raise is what they're asking for. Kaiser came back and Kaiser offered them a 12 and a half to 16% range to 10,000 employees, but the union came back and said, no, we want more. And a season like this, by the way, partly, partially,

when you're looking at this is why is this happening you say the economy right you we talked about this a couple weeks ago about a mortgage payment Do we talk about what a mortgage payment would be on a $500,000? Yeah, yes you did you did the math for everybody how it doubled did we do that on the podcast or that on the Your dad or LA when we were in LA when you were on Dave Rubin and the other way. I did it on Rubin, or I did it on this. You did it on Rubin. Okay, so then let me do this. Let me go to this story.

So check this out. So mortgage rate raises towards 8% after hitting a high, not seen since late 2000. Okay, this is a CNBC story that we're talking about. This is, so here's what it looks like. Rob, get the mortgage calculator from Google up. Yeah, that would be perfect. So the average rate for 30 year fixed mortgage rates search to 7.72, the highest since the end of 2000,

driven by rising yields on a 10 year treasury, which has been climbing due to strong economic data, mortgage rates which had briefly dropped to around 6% at the beginning of the year have been steadily rising over the summer, impacting home sales despite strong demand. There's a possibility that rates may exceed 8%, the higher mortgage rates have adversely affected housing affordability and a new in existing home sale

markets, causing home builder sentiment to decline. For example, a borrow purchasing a $400,000 house with a 20% down payment on a 30-year fix, face the mortgage payment roughly $930 higher compared to a 3% rate during the height of COVID pandemic. So check this out. Pull up the mortgage calculator, if you can. All right, let's say you do $500,000, okay? Is the loan, 30 you're fixed and take that to 8%. Okay, take that to 8%.

Okay, so the payment is what? 36,69, just write that down. 37. 36,69. That's insane. Okay, now the only thing I want you to change is just change that 8% to 3%, which was what it was 18 months ago, 21.08.

Okay? So 21.08. Almost 15. You're talking about $1,151 more. So do 1,151 divided by 21.08. What's 1551 divided by 2108? 1551 divided by 2108 is, it's a 74% increase on mortgage payment. So, now, Rob, if we do this, take the 2108, just pull up a regular calculator, pull up a regular calculator, and divide the 2108, put put two thousand one oh eight divided by

point three six point three six equals That's what the bank is gonna want to see for your income times twelve. What's okay? I'm gonna hang on So the bank is gonna want your monthly income to be fifty eight fifty five do it now times twelve to see what the annual would be Okay equals what so they want a seven70,000 your income to qualify for a $500,000 a loan 18 months ago. Now, go clear the whole thing up. No, quick, why'd you do point three six?

That's the debt to income. Gotcha, that's what you need to be making. Yeah, explain that for a second. Your bank is evaluating you, right, for people listening. Yeah, so the bank is looking at you saying, can this guy for to buy this house? How much money do you make per month? So they'll take the mortgage payment

and divide it times, you know, typical number's gonna be 0.36 and you'll get that number to know. This is what you need to make to be able to for to buy the house. And I watch this, go to the 3669. So same house, same area, 18 months different rates are 8% now divided times divided by 0.36 Now the bank wants you to make 10,091

Times 12 so so so over a hundred grand a year. Yeah, wait guys. They want your income How about a hundred be a hundred and twenty two thousand dollars to qualify for the same house So then the question so then you ask the question for the strikes. And you say, okay, why are they striking? Maybe because they can't afford to buy the house. So by dynamics, guess what? More he talks about by dynamics. It's the worst thing he's doing for himself, the more he's not my by dynamics. And outside of this, you know what's the first default that's shown right now? You know what is the first default? Because right now commercial real estate. Well, we're seeing on a lower level so you got let's categorize the defaults. We have car payments

under car payments we have Good credit car payments and we have D-paper which is subprime car payments then on mortgage you have what regular people that got more Gages that have good credit and you have subprime then you have commercial real estate is what Regular people that got more gidges that have good credit than you have subprime, then you have commercial real estate is what? Regular people that got good, you know, commercial, some of them that did hardcore financing, you have school loans, okay? You know what is the first thing right now that's

defaulting right now is subprime car payments is up skyrocketing, which is core workers that have a reasonable amount of debt. Yes. And they're probably paying 15% less more, whatever it is. Yeah, so because these guys are creditors. They're not 750. Their credit score is a 650, 620. And they're trying to get car financing.

You ever gone to a dealership to get a car financing with back credit? Oh, for God's sake. Your payment is 30% higher, 20% higher. That guy, A, if you're in that financial situation, probably don't understand interest rates for all that matter, but when you walk into the car lot, they're like, how much does your monthly payment need to be? All right, yeah, I can afford 350 bucks.

Well, let me, they don't, like, don't look over here, you're paying 18% and that's how payment-based culture companies, you're absolutely. That's how they make their money out of your finances. But let's look here. Let's describe one of those subprime workers Pat's talking about. How about this? A nurse at Kaiser Permanente making 65 grand a year,

seven years out of school, still school loans. She is a subprime borrower, and she is currently in a picket line. Yeah, yeah. And so that is the reason why I believe a lot of these strikes are taking place because the economy is destroying the average guy today Yeah, it is destroying the average guy You know who also started default right now?

Who's also started default right now? By the way, you know we work at one point was a 47 billion dollar company we work You've heard of we were they just defaulted on a payment a wrap the type in rework default payment I think it's a 95 million dollar payment. They just defaulted on a payment, type in rework default payment. I think it's a $95 million payment, they just defaulted on, zoom in a little bit. $95 million payment, they just defaulted on. What?

So shared office space rental company, we work said it wouldn't be making interest payments on about $95 million due Monday. And it shares fell out in all time low. We work said it would use its 30 day grace period for the debt payments to hold discussions with certain stakeholders and to enhance its liquidity. You miss on a $95 million payment. Now you may say, dude, Pat, that's a lot of money. You were valued at

$47 billion. Billion. So you know what this shows? Can you type in, we work highest valuation. We work highest valuation. I think it's 46, 47 billion dollars. 47 billion dollars, I was right. So you're a 47 billion dollars. They get, they get, they get, look at this year in 2017 soft bank group made the first of its total 18 and a half billion dollar investment in the company. Wow. 95 million is what? 1.1 billion you can make a pair like that So now you got subprime guys hang on divide 1.1 billion by 36 how much is that company? You divide you divide you that's a good point by the way you divide You you look at default payments on commercial real estate. Okay, I Prok so we work as the bigger commercial because that's what they do. They rent the office space, you know, yeah, then you default on sub-prime.

You know what hidden awaited destroyed economy? Mortgage payments people started defaulting on. Yeah, we haven't felt that yet. That's why this is a very different and the reason why default isn't hitting Why isn't default hitting? This people got a little interest rates. Right. That's what. Right. Yeah, they got a little interest rates. Back in the O8, we all remember Nina, right? No, no assets. Those are the good old days, you know, stripper making a hundred grand cash, bought just three houses, congratulations.

We saw that. Remember the big short, Mike Boran, all that. Carol, you have three houses, and a condo. And a condo, yeah, doing their thing. So, and a condo, would you say, and a condo? And a condo, that was a song. He got two gold condos. And a condo, I thought for a second, you were sent to, that was a song. Anaconda. Anaconda.

Anaconda. I thought for a second you were singing, we're going. I don't want to touch you. Can you just dance? I know you're a big Nicki Minaj fan. That's just a huge fan of the case. That's what you do. I know that she cites you all the time.

Respect. Best annualized federal format. I would like to know the mortgages that are defaulting now, percentage of how many are defaulting from the good old days, you know, 3% or less Versus people they got a mortgage in the last let's say 24 months since mortgages of skyrocketed where that comes in You're like all right. I just really wanted to buy a house. I missed the I missed the boat I could have got 3% a year or two ago now I'm at 6.5% boom default. I got Late off my job unemployed, pick it line,

what have you, that would be an interesting case that you've seen. That would be to see which one is default. And somebody in that space has to break it down and see where these defaults are gonna be, because they're not here yet. So a lot of real estate and mortgage guys are saying, well, you guys call the doomsday all this stuff,

it's not here, they're right, it's not here yet because people are not selling their houses because they don't wanna lose that 3% interest rate. You know what I'm saying about, too, but, you know, like when you don't make your payment, not you, I'm just saying in general, on your credit card, they call the creditors, they call you. What is that 95 million dollar phone call light?

Like, hey, yeah, we work, yeah. Where everybody is? Where do you guys do it? And then what's it, what's it then that we showed the five ways of affecting the patients? Rob, one of them was, you could still see your doctor. Where? On the picket line? You can have the show them like, yo, dot, hi.

Hey, that's just a good point. Yeah, that's been me. Look, I have a rash. I just get the hell off the street. Well, you know, speaking of that 90th, take this temperature and blood pressure. Who? Yes, what was going on in China?

Not Evergrand, but a company bigger than Evergrand in China. The commercial real estate developer. What was the name of China not ever grand but a company bigger than ever grand in China the commercial real estate developer What was the name of that company do you recall whatever there a huge massive real estate company? They had they had to make a $25 million payment whatever the number was yeah, but they're valued at a hundred billion dollars some Astronomical number but they didn't make the payment so not that our our audiences Concerned of what's going on in Chinese real estate, but here at Israel, a country garden makes $22 million payment with $15 billion more to go.

That's insane. So again, this is a sign of what's to come. By the way, before we get to the next story, let's go to our sponsors, Masterworks. Here's Masterworks. You've seen a movie, Big Shored. You know the guy Michael Burry, who said the market's going to crash, nobody believed him. Well, Michael Burry just recently bet 1.6 billion dollars against the market

He took people's money 1.6 billion dollars and he said the market's about to go down That's what he did the last time he got it right. He's doing it again on top of that Jerome Powell about interest rates is I'm still not comfortable with what's going on with inflation Which means they may raise the rates again proceeding carefully is the word they're using. So what's happened out of time like this, alternative assets is one of the things a lot of people are looking at. This is why we decided to work with master works

and there are sponsors today, master works. They've done 16 sales so far, with all 16 returning a profit, and just weeks ago, they sold a Sicily brown piece for a 77% annualized return. Obviously, that's not all of them. That's just when they just had a few weeks ago So you may be watching the saying that I like art, but I can't afford banks Yeah, I can't afford warhol. I can't afford basket

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So, next story I want to get into is the bond story. So, if we go to page 15, page 15, Treasury bonds, this is another issue here that some are very worried about. 10-year treasury yields, 4.8% a 16-year high. This is a CNBC story. This is the highest level since 2007, hitting 4.8% while the treasury yield, search to 4.924. These yields have implications for mortgage rates and investment. Incre increasing yields comes as a job opening and labor turnover survey indicates a tight labor market, giving the Federal Reserve reason to continue raising rates. Bingo, that's not what real stores want to hear.

Fed officials have deferring views on the need for further rate hikes, but most agree that rates will remain elevated for a considerable period. Market uncertainty surrounds the timing of rate hikes but most agree that rates will remain elevated for a considerable period, market uncertainty surrounds the timing of rate hikes with two central bank policy meetings, schedule for the remainder of the year. Tom, what does this mean to the average guy?

Well, to the average guy basically means that rates on everything are going to be higher longer. That's what it means. So the car loans, home loans, credit cards, even if you get good credit, if you carry over a month or two, they're gonna be higher longer. And it means that businesses are gonna have a tougher time expanding when they're turning to the bond market or the debt market to go get debt because they're gonna have to pay for it. So the average person is gonna see the cost of borrowing on basic things like a car use car

You know you Example you finance an air conditioning unit. How much is an air-con you should unit pat? You've seen them at your house like 25 30 grand 30 grand for me. I bought like six of them I know the one of one one of the one here one of them was 48 grand 40 Yeah, so if you this put it perspective What if you have a middle-sized house with $2,000, $24,000 unit, upstairs downstairs? That's $48,000.

People, those are things that the average consumer has to finance when they happen. So the rates are going to be higher longer on financing, and it's going to be harder for businesses to borrow money and expand. So job openings are going to be less. So the average person's going to be harder for businesses to borrow money and expand. So job openings are going to be less. So the average person is going to see probably for the next 24, 36 months, a very tenuous economy and ignore the headlines about high-flying stocks like Namidia.

Oh, wait, which is down 15% in two weeks after their peak. It's going to be tough for the average person. Adam, you also had thoughts on this. You were doing this this morning as well. Well, so obviously in the asset world, you have stocks and you have bonds and you have cash and then alternative assets as well. But I think it's important to understand

that obviously the younger you are, the more risk you can take, right? So you should be more in equities and stocks. And the older you are, you're more in fixed income and bonds and there's sort of a relationship there. As we've seen over the last couple of years with Jerome Palin the Fed, they've raised interest rates.

So Tom, correct me if I'm wrong, interest rates and bonds have an inverse relationship, right? Meaning they go sort of in opposite directions. As interest rates go up, bonds go down. As interest rates go down, bonds go up. So the market, I mean, here's just the article right here, this is from Business Insider, or the Collapse and Treasury bonds

now ranks among the worst market crashes in history. Nobody's talking about the bond market. The stock market, the stock market, the stock market, the Dow's up, the S&P. Well, people don't sometimes realize there's an entire market called the bond market that is completely separate from the stock market. And the collapse in Chedrybounds now ranks among the worsens and crashes in history as you can see on the screen. And there's another inside story,

same day, investors are now having a panic attack about the bond market. So Tom, it should young people even worry about something like this, do they have bonds even in their portfolio? Or is this something that if you're in the 65 plus community, not that you're gonna be there anytime soon, Tom, you're holding steady, I get it. What are older people? What should my mom be thinking about right now? What should, yeah, this actually reminds you of something.

You said there's two types of people in this world. There's people that are trying to make their first billion and the people already have it. People that are trying to make their first billion and the people already have it. People that are trying to make their first billion aren't necessarily investing in bonds, but the people already have it. Want to keep their money in a very secure, risk-free asset class, but it seems pretty fricking risky today. It is.

It used to be that you could go to treasuries because it's backed by the confidence of the US government and whatnot. And over the last two years, there is a finance vehicle that has been big with people over 65. It's been huge. The billions that have gone there have been astronomical. And it is the annuity. Because the annuity is a financial vehicle

for people who are in what annuity is. It's like the opposite of an insurance policy. Insurance policy, you pay a little bit along the way. And then when you die, there's a big payment that's made to your family, your errors, the beneficiary. Well, a annuity is opposite. You take a lump of money and you give it to the insurance company, and after about seven years, they start giving you a monthly allowance, and it's a great way to give yourself another

payment in addition to any pensions or Social Security you might have. Well, annuities are also safe because they have a guaranteed interest rate. And if the market crashes, your annuity stays frozen at that number, so your annuity doesn't crash. So it's a very good vehicle for older people. So sorry to get technical, but right now with this going on, there is a flight to quality and protection and annewities or cash. I looked at my mom's Maryland report and they have her almost to 65% member.

She's 82. So they have her almost 65% cash and she was at 5.375 last month. I'm like, praise God, somebody at Maryland, just paying attention and working with your mom because that's the right decision. And money market accounts are paying 5% That's right. This is a This is a Merrill money if you go back to 08 which patch mentioned before with the recession and lowering of interest rates Essentially, there was free money for over a decade right?

What was the Fed fund rate prior to 2020 0% well the time of the crash the average Mortgage in America was 5.25. The mortgage rate, I'm saying the Fed fund rate, like it was 0%. Oh, yeah, yeah, moments after the end of the wait. And you know, certain markets like in Europe and Asia, where it was actually negative, right? Like minus 1%. Yep. Now the Fed fund rate is what, 5%.

The prime rate is closer to 8%. So kind of to circle back to my point, as the interest rates go up, bond prices fall. Okay, so let's go to this next story here. Wall Street Journal, Wall Street thinks America's homes are overvalued. By the way, New York Post Story, previous day says US office real estate prices headed for severe crash investor sales.

So let me read the Wall Street Journal one, they kind of go together. US-ingly family house prices have continued to rise despite interest rate hikes reaching a new high in July while commercial real estate, including apartments, have faced declines and value. Institutional investors who bought numerous single-family homes during the pandemic have scaled back their purchases due to rising debt costs and moderated rent growth, large landlords, purchase only 0.4% of US homes in the second quarter, down from a peak of 2.4% in late 2021.

Some real estate investment trusts read specializing in single family homes have slowed their buying or become net sellers, shares of US single family housing reads, real estate investment trusts, trade at a 20% discount. Folks, that's a $40 million property, it's $32 million, 20% discount. $500,000 house is 400,000. That's right, a gross asset value, suggesting cautioning among investors

about the future value of home prices. And then, New York Post says the following, a survey of investors indicates that commercial real estate market in the US is heading for a severe collapse of primarily due to high interest rates and declining property values. Approximately two thirds of respondents believe

that the market will only recover after a crash. Respondents in the survey predict different timelines for when office property prices will hit bottom bottom with 44% expecting it to happen the second half of the next year and 22% anticipating that will happen the first six months of 2024 only six percent believe prices will bottom out this year while 29% think it'll be in 2025 or later factors contributing to this impending crisis include aggressive rates later factors contributing to this impending crisis include aggressive rates by the Federal Reserve reduced demand for office space spaces and concerns about potential defaults on one and a half trillion dollars in debt maturing by the end of 2025.

This is scary. So basically what this is saying, if the American residential homes is a stock market, so just think of that, you don't have to get deep in the technical. Let's just say all residential homes in America is a stock market. So just think of that. You don't have to get deep in the technical. Let's just say all residential homes in America is a stock market. And you know, basically, you have your property tax, you have a house that sold down the street, one of the few houses that did,

and you can see the price it sold for. That is your market price. So there's your average market price right now today. Your stock market is trading 20% below that, meaning that they believe there's a bubble. Well, what's going to trigger the bubble? Well, Pat was just reading second half of 24 or into 25. Why are they forecasting that far out? I'll tell you why. They believe the Fed is going to raise interest rates. One quarter point on

October 31, Halloween to November 1st, That's when they have their next meeting. And then hold steady for six months, getting through fourth quarter, so you have black Fridays all about, see how the consumer spent, get into the beginning of the year where you know, it's usually lackluster in January and then the consumer picks up. They're forecasting that they will not come to lower rates. And this is the fed, all the fed governors talking that they're not going to make the first rate lowering until the end of March, end of Q1 beginning of Q2 next year. So that's the first time the rate lowers. Then if the economy is doing well and they'll be pressure from the administration

to lower those rates going into the election, oh, that. And so as that happens toward the end of 24, now the mortgages may be dropped under seven to six and a quarter, and maybe touch that magic 5.75, people would be willing to sell. Sell at what price? These folks think the bubble is gonna be a 20% pricing adjustment. So I hope you followed that little storyline there

and tried to keep it straight. 20% actually wanna get your perspective, PPD. So we talked about the inverse relationship between the interest rates and the bonds and all that fun stuff. I'm curious to know the relationship, the correlation between residential real estate prices and home prices and the correlation there.

What's my point. During COVID, we saw the exact opposite thing happen. It was talk about supply and demand. The rush to go buy a house during COVID was astronomical. Everyone wanted to move out of their apartments and move out of the city, get by their house. Mortgage rates were 3% rush, rush, rush, rush, rush. Major demand for residential housing,

but the exact opposite get me one was get me the hell out of this office. Yeah, get me out of my lease. I do not want to be here work from anywhere work from home. So commercial real estate obviously took a major hit. Now things of sort of recalibrated people are you know, you see Jamie Diamond saying, Hey, we'll just work from work from, was sort of done or whatever that story was. What's that correlation typically? And where's it at today? I'm trying to understand those dynamics.

This is what? This is. So commercial real estate obviously, there was a major decline during COVID, but residential, major boom. Maybe what's the typical correlation? Where's it at today? Is what I was sort of more on.

So, okay, so go to that story. That's actually a good story to go into. So JP Morgan, CEO, Jamie Diamond says, AI could bring a three and a half day work week. Let's read this article. So, CEO, Jamie Diamond, you're... There's benefits of artificial intelligence, which is already being used by thousands of employees

at the bank, and he predicts it'll usher in the normal, the short and work with your children are going to lift to 100 and not have cancer because of technology. And literally, they'll probably be working three and a half days a week. Diamond says, the bank's investment in AI will add huge value and is being leveraged across the firm's research, trading customer service

and other functions. When asset technology is likely to replace on bank jobs, he responded that, of course, it will, but that technologies will always replaced jobs. He also added that bank hire 30,000 people here and that he expects many displaced workers will be transferred to new locations with roles with a new company. As many as 300 million jobs around the world could be affected by AI

according to recent Golden Sachs report. And about one in five workers have a job with high exposure to AI according to peer research center, through its unclear AI enhancer displays these roles. So, okay, you read all this stuff. Like, for example, this one building we're looking at, right? This building in February of 2020, which is what? Right before COVID, they spent $250 per square feet

to upgrade a 300,000 square foot building. So how much is that? 250 times 300,000 is how much of an upgrade to cost. That's a $75 million investment to do upgrades. Okay. And they did it right. It's a great building. It's an incredible. What's the building's price up before all this?

I don't think it's a $90 million. It's a $90 million. I don't think it's a incredible. What's the building's price up before all this, Pat? Now hang on, let's talk about that. I understand, let's say, it's a $90 million like I said, building. They fixed this thing up, 300,000 square feet. Look, some amazing, beautiful facility. Jim, what do you call it? Cafeteria, all this, it's just a ridiculous setup, right? The company's a nearly a four billion auto company.

$2.75 million, you know, it's money, but it's not like, so we gotta make the upgrades. Timing is important. Yeah, they really, that's the problem. So you signed a contract and COVID hits. Now everybody's working from home. Now when you go into this facility and you look into our building,

have to building is empty. People have been working from home during COVID. They're sitting there saying, what the hell do we do with this building? We want to get this thing off our balance sheet. They don't want this building nor do they need this building. Okay, would wear their hat on. Somebody bought a month, some 16, 17 billion dollar company bought this building out and they're sitting there saying, what do we do now?

This is case study that's happening right now. And by the way, this has happened across the board. There's another building here down the street, 200,000 square foot building, okay, office space. Just three years ago, it was rented 90%, so 200,000 square feet was rented 90%, okay. It's the Kaplan building, it's a Kaplan, you know Kaplan school.

I see it, I see it. This is their headquarters. Today, it's pretty much empty. I mean, I tell you empty, I'm like, maybe it's rent at 25, 50%. From 100%, you know, 90% to now 25 to 50%, how do you collect the mortgage payments now? You're not. And this is in a market that's attracting businesses. Meaning, we're not talking about San Francisco,

right here, this building right here. The 193,000 square foot building, okay? We're not talking about a San Francisco, or Chicago, or New York, or any of those markets. Cream of the crap, Florida, that people are moving to, empty buildings, class a beautiful buildings, sitting empty on the complete opposite side, industrial buildings where people can do like shipping, like, you know, what Amazon does

on some of these other, no, those are jam packed, those, like, getting space. No, no, they're not having a hard time selling. Industrial buildings, they don't have a hard time selling, they don't have a hard time, you know, they have a hard time buying, they can't find enough of that. Got you. Tom. And by the way, let's draw, let's draw a line. So those industrial buildings that are being turned into wholesale distribution centers, who are they being turned into for Walmart and for Target and ladies and gentlemen and Amazon, because they're still delivering stuff to your home, and in certain blue cities, are you paying attention? Your target just closed.

That doesn't mean target doesn't want to sell you stuff. It means they couldn't afford to have the public retail open. And so now they've got distribution stuff, because they still want to deliver to you. They still want to sell you stuff at Target. They're just not going to have smashing grabs and have employees at risk. So they need commercial house space, and they're competing with Walmart and competing with

Amazon to go find it. So that is a very rich market where they're actually competing and bidding each other up. And so Pat, who was Jamie Dheiman said it? Where your grandkids are going to live to 100, 100 years old. And then he said, you're going to work three and a half days a week. Now, is that because they want you to work from home or is it because the AI is gonna be taking your jobs?

And you guess what, they're like, listen, we don't wanna get rid of you completely, but just, you'll be there a little bit because robots are basically gonna take good care of. I mean, just think about it. It's crazy. I think I'm one of the only guys in my 40s that still reads a physical newspaper.

Yeah, you know, I actually like reading a physical newspaper. Yes. When's the last time you saw somebody reading a physical newspaper. Yeah, you know, I actually like reading a physical newspaper. When's the last time you saw somebody reading a physical? You're literally, I read it sometimes just for nostalgia. Just I wanna hold it. Yeah, but the point is like newspapers are done. There used to be a time newspapers were in. Radio is done. Podcasts are killing it, right?

Cable TV's about to be destroyed. Yeah. It may take five to 10 years, but they're gonna get crushed, right? Maybe, just maybe the next thing that's going to get destroyed, maybe commercial real estate in a big way. Wow. And may get crushed in a big way if they're going this direction. Because what all happened is if you can have AI doing a lot of the work, if you can have

AI doing a lot of the work, why do I need a big fancy building to be in? I don't. Most industries are not going to need it. Some will. need a big fancy building to be in? I don't. Most industries are not going to need it. Some will. Most industries are not going to need it. So they're going to experience their decisions. They used to say there was the death of the modern American mall, right? Look how the hell do we need all this space retail shopping? But what that forced malls to do was get creative. All right. So maybe what we're going to do is all this space. All right. So rather than having retail shops galore,

let's set up an amusement park. Let's put a roller skating rink in there. When you have all this massive amount of property and there's segments of the market, like retail, you just why do you need to go shopping necessarily? You can just go online. It just forces you to get more creative. And Tom, you might know this,

but the death of the mall was that premature. I don't know how many malls actually close down. Do you know that number? No, I don't know the number, but I know Westfield took it in the chops. They're a large operator of malls. And you look at what happened in San Francisco. You see these horrible pictures on Twitter. It looks like some dystopian future, you know, weird space thing where the malls completely desolate and homeless people have moved in there. So the malls, you've got malls that are still out there operating, but the typical mall has taken a bath.

And I'll tell you something else from the ventricide of it. So I'm not going to name any companies, but there is a gold dress of companies out there that take your cell phone and your friend or your spouse just you, you, you were your underwear and you take pictures of the front back inside of you and they give you like a 90% accuracy of fit of clothing because clothing fit and clothing return was one of the first big challenges of e-commerce. You buy a shirt, this is an medium, this is too tight, you know, and you couldn't tell. Well now you have all these tools that are out there that are going to take away what

many people think is the last frontier of the mall, the ability to look at and shop for clothing that it's going away. You'll be able to see yourself in the clothing, size yourself in the clothing, and that the death of the mall is, is, is coming quickly on a generalized state. Now, there are a new port beach California. There's a mall there, fascist island, and it's, uh, it's still there. You know, there's high dollar communities that still have their malls, but malls are, have you been in the mall lately?

Tom, they're, they're saddened. sad and this is one of my point here. This is sort of what I was studying. The client of the American mall has left just 700 still standing soon. There may be 150 left. This is in 2022 if you scroll down a little bit Rob. There's just a hundred 50 malls left United States in 10 years according to one industry watcher that's his speculation. There are currently around 700 malls in the US down from 2500 in the 80s malls have suffered as an online salesman. So here's my hypothesis. This is just, you know, not a commercial mall expert.

The need for malls was a need for shopping. That's where you would go to your stuff, your merchandise, your clothes, you just do some general stuff. The thanks buddy. So that might obviously decrease with the boom of, you know, online shopping. But what we've realized has not decreased is the need for hanging out in public.

Yeah, no shit. And the need to be around people and the need to go out and the need to socialize. And then, quite frankly, there's need to be around people. And malls represent that. They've always represent that. So you might not be going to the mall anymore to go shopping and do your typical thing, but they might be like I mentioned.

That sounds great. That sounds great. But those people are paying the rent, right? That sounds great. And all, but these guys are not running a nonprofit organization. You're gonna have to spend money. No, but my point is that's why they're gonna get creative instead of having retail outlets.

Like there's some malls that are opening up amusement parks or they're opening up big movie theater type situations or things that people will congregate. They gotta get really creative, though, that's my point. They gotta get really, really creative. We could dive into this deep and I know Pat's got other stories here,

but I'm gonna give you two quick points if I could Pat, real quick. You're gonna see innovation events your capital out there. Think of these guys. This is one of many companies that's doing this. They convert vacant office buildings into housing into 900 square foot apartments, many apartments and things like this.

They do that number one. And then number two, you're seeing things such as it was on my case study, I'm not pimping for the company path. But you're going to see many companies like Free Range Concepts in Dallas, which is this guy that owns three different restaurants. One is called the Rustic that actually has a music and open area area behind the restaurant to your exact point.

I don't just go to the restaurant, I want to sit with my friends and the malls are not going to operate a non-profit for you to sit around the food court at the mall and chat for each other. But restaurants are doing that. He also has a restaurant that's almost like a chilees, but it caters to people with dogs. And there's this big area in the center where you can actually walk your dog.

So what's happening is the need for community is being met in other ways by entrepreneurs because you're exactly right. Where do we go to hang out together? Hey, there's my friend from high school. He was walking the other way in the mall and he just bought pair of jeans, and I would see him and talk to him.

And that need in our humanness is still there, but it's not gonna be at the malls, and I see things happening with innovative restaurant concepts and other things to meet the human need. Because have you ever been to the mall of America's in Minneapolis, Minnesota? No, I've never I've never been there, but it was like the people people would say if God had a mall in heaven. Yeah, and that's my point Rob. I don't know if you can find some image. This is the biggest I think the biggest mall in the country.

Maybe the world's where you go there and What they've done is they've innovated look So this is what's going on in the mall. You've got a full on amusement parks in the mall. So maybe you're not going to Abraham, but you can fit you over here, but you're going to their version of Disneyland in your local mall. And that's kind of what I'm saying.

You got to get creative. Maybe you don't go to David Buster's anymore. You go to the mall or something like that. Well, you make a point, but again, this is, there's only one, you know, the malls of America. There's only one of that. It's a very big investment for them to make. Some of them, it depends on the market you're in, is it going to work? Is it not going to work?

But the business model is going away. So the business model of commercial real estate may be going away unless if companies find ways to get people like for me, I'm always gonna be an in-office guy. I'm always gonna be that guy. I'm running companies, I think culture people gotta be around each other, right, to do that. But man, we have the predictive AI guys

that are typically quiet guys, I wanna be by themselves, they don't have to be in a building. They actually don't want to be around a lot of other people sometimes. They have a different wiring on what they want to be. To that world, things are going to change a lot. So this commercial real estate deal on what direction it's going to go the next six, 12, 18 months,

it may be as permanent as newspapers, just maybe. We don't know yet, it just may be. But let's go to the next story. So check this out. Bad policies have consequences. How bad? To the point where Starbucks closed down seven of them in downtown San Francisco due to bad policies. Let me read this to you. This is a Fox Business story. Starbucks is closing seven downtown San Francisco stores including locations admission and main Gary and Taylor pickups only fourth and market bush and vanness with closures effective October 22nd Starbucks regional vice president for Northern California Jessica Borton explained there are several factors Starbucks considered before a when tasked with the

tough decision of closing a store but it is all part of ensuring a healthy store portfolio employees at the store's marked for closure will be offered transfer opportunities to nearby locations, Bortenshirt, transfer opportunities are available, and will be offered to each impacted partner. We remain committed to continuing dialogue and support.

Okay, so seven Starbucks in San Francisco. That's a lot, Pat. That's a lot. That's a lot of from for downtown. That's, that is insane. And you're not just talking about anywhere. You're talking about in San Fran, that's a business hub.

Yeah. That there's executives running around that they wanna have their coffee in the morning. You know, they may wanna get a coffee at lunch, shutting down seven of them. Tom, go for it. Those are not the slum areas. And you know, Vinnie, they need to call their congressman yep

or what you know what sucks on she just had to vacate she had to shut down her office yeah so there's a lot of my goal of fiction is going on yes policy she's got she's gone so you know what you know her attitude she has anything to do with the policies and yeah it's really really weird but no one it brings it up but she knows you said this eviction is a sharp departure from tradition,

but what do you think about it, Tom? I think it's pretty freaking ironic that the princess of bad policy is actually the same week it's evicted from her office for other reasons. But hey, look, Vinnie, what have we been seeing in terms of a business as clothing and like Macy's clothing and Nordstrom clothing? Yeah, and a lot of them.

And the flagship mall that was down there and a Moscow Center. With that anchor stores, they call it, right? Anchor stores, and I think this is where you're going, with all the crime and everything where when the bad policy is a new sum, everybody, that they go, hey, listen, you could go in there and you could steal, but if it's under a thousand, you're good. That's inviting people to come in to destroy the business, to shut it down, Pat. So there only places like Amazon

and all these places thrive. It's not an accidental thing. I think they're doing it on purpose because once, think about it, Pat, I just saw a thing where seven on rodeo drive in Beverly Hills, all saints. All these huge stores are shutting down because people don't wanna do that business.

Smash and grab. Smash and grab. Smash and grab. And they're saying, by the way, why we, by the way, this holiday season, if you have a girlfriend, why the hell would you go and buy her a thousand dollars or anything? Put on a mask, go inside of a wall. No, I'm dead, I'm being dead serious,

you're not gonna go to jail. Why? Like, baby, what do you want? Okay, put on a mask and go break it. That's what I would do. So much I love you, baby. I love you. I'm willing to not go to jail for you, hon. Give a few magic it. That's what I would do so much. I love you, baby I'm willing to not go to jail for you Imagine that's maybe that's me. What you like that's not you. I'm like look look at my traps

Look at my yeah, look at my back. You know, this is on though. Well, it says on your favorite word Vinnie Yeah, the constituents the constituents listen to this is what you want you want more of this if you're in San Francisco This is Pat what do you say? There's visions and actions have consequences. It's just which ones you're going to get. But, but here's my question to you guys. Why? Remember, you always say follow the money at him. Why are they letting this happen? Because this isn't just accident because when you ask them, they act like it's not a problem. It's not a problem, Pat. Why? Why? Why? I'm just curious. The best, again, the best part about, say, say, you know, your ex says, you will never turn into anything.

You're a loser. You'll never be anything without me. Yeah. Okay, guess what? We're going to find out in 10 years whether she's right or wrong. Yeah. Right? You know, you're working out of place.

You guys will never make it without me. This company lost a great employee without me. I don't know. Okay. Maybe you're right. Maybe you're wrong. 10 years. We're going to tell you these are the best policies. How dare you come to our city. We welcome you to New York. Yeah. We will come. We will treat you. Doors are wider. We have hotels. We have locations. We have to make it very clear that you can no longer come to New York City because we are done. Don't we can't do it on

Yeah, bad policies it takes with other way. Did you see what happened with Chicago? So Chicago did you see the protesting the the folks in Chicago had over this gym type Chicago gym, okay? Just type in Chicago gym and look what's going on over there. They're the protesting going on the gym You get right there if you you can't turn that on. So they want to use this gym in Chicago. You can press play so people can see. For migrants? Yeah.

For migrants. And locals are saying, dude, what are you talking about? This is our you work for us. This is Chicago. You can pause it. This is a hardcore liberal city that's sitting there saying, why are you turning our gym for our kids for migrants? But by the way, everybody's in that audience too. If those of you that are listening to the podcast on audio, that audience is very diverse.

Everybody's in that room. Yeah. I love it. Here's a problem though. 90% of them voted for exactly what they're getting. And they'll guess what? And they'll go from again. They voted again. So you can scream all you want and vote any differently. You're gonna get the same exact thing you're gonna get. So the best part about time and bad policies is time will reveal everything. We're in Florida because this guy's policies were great policies.

The Santos had phenomenal policies during COVID. People left California and Chicago and New York because of policies, but it took time to know whose policies were good or bad. The only thing I'll add to this is what issues are concerned as a voter, right? So, a lot of people are single issue voters, or they pay attention to more personality than policies. I would argue that most people aren't really tracking the policies of certain people. They're just like, ah, they look on the screen. Ah, you know, most people, 40%, 42%, 45%, just see an R or C a D and they just go in that way. Boom. Most people aren't sort of diving into the policies. What's

my point? You know, James Carville's one under Clinton said, what's the biggest issue for voters? What is the economy? Stope it. I used to. For most people, it is your paycheck, but for other people, you know, it's healthcare or it's abortion or it's minimum wage. I can San Francisco fight for 15. Now they want to raise it to 20, whatever it is.

So maybe that's your biggest issue, right? Or maybe it's immigration at some point, but what I would recommend for most people, if you are open-minded, is really take the Congress person or who you're voting for at face value, delve into their specific policies and not just what you typically vote for, sort of see what times of change.

We talk about disruption, we talk about the mall, we talk about crypto, we talk about AI, things have changed. So astronomically fast, then maybe what you were politically a few years ago, who you voted for a few years ago, isn't exactly where you're at today. And you take that look at the people in Chicago, they're basically enough enough. And maybe those are the people that will change this vote.

But going off what Pat said, and packing, we both, we agreed on it. It's like all this, Adam, all this disaster, all this book, but, but, but going off what Pat said and patting we both, we agreed on it. It's like all this Adam, all this disaster, all this chaos, they're still going to vote for the same people in the same party. And it's almost like, what's that syndrome Tom where the, like the Stockholm syndrome, the girls getting kidnapped, you start to actually like your kidnappers as long as you're not abusing the Democrat. I mean, just, I'm sorry, it's not that it's a Democrat, we're probably gonna think people like that have Americans, have Stockholm syndrome when it comes to the people because they're like, listen, they're abusing me, they're shitting all over me,

but I can't give up on these people. You're absolutely right. This is why Pat was, I think, so correct, is that he thinks that bluer cities or specific bluer states are gonna get bluer and redder cities and redder states are gonna get redder because you know, you're vibe attracts your tribe, you know, they say. So some people are like, yeah,

we want immigration for everywhere. We want minimum wage for everyone. We want that. And then some people are like, dude, like how many people you meet, dude, I left California because of this ridiculous, the price, the gas, Gavin Newsom. You know what this is?

Some people said I'm vote for that guy again. No shit. So check this out. Watch this. Watch this here. This is a hill story. GOP holds biggest lead on economy since 1991. This is Gallup.

Oh damn. GOP holds biggest lead. Rob, can you pull up this story here? GOP holds biggest lead on economy. What page is this? It's 1991. Gallup. According to Gallup poll, 53% respondents trust the Republican Party more to ensure country's

prosperity in the coming years compared to 39%. Look at the chart right there by the way. This is the highest ever. Rob go a little bit higher so we can see the timeline in the bottom. Go a little higher. That's okay right there. So check this out right there. Look at that 1990s.

Look how high the blue was and how low the red was. Oh my God. Is that the 60s? Okay, 56. Look how high the blue is versus red. So then red has come up and look where blue is at now. People are like, we're sorry, man. The blue economic policy is just,

now this is this gap, the 14 point advantage is the widest gap on the question since mid 1991, it almost is up from 10 point gap from last year is where it's at when you look at this number. The survey revealed that 57% of those poll, those poll trusts Republicans more to protect their country from international terrorism and military threats in contrast to 35% who trust Democrats.

This trust gap is one of the largest since question was introduced in 2002. Despite these leads, both parties still face public dissatisfaction with 56%. Viewing the GOP unfavorably and 58% viewing the Democrats unfavorably. Additionally, 44% believe the republican party is better equipped to handle problems as they rise while only thirty six percent feel the same about the democratic party again this is the gallop poll gallop is not left right middle it's gala gallop yes they're pretty credible that little jump that purple line that was on the

bottom people are the little bit of the people the people have no opinion that will have dropped to nothing which means everybody has an opinion. And they're all in as we've gone from 2020 to 2023 and things have gotten a little tougher. Everybody is in with their opinion. And that jump right there looks like the e-haley jump forward to Santhus. Have an opinion, go vote.

Well, this was sort of the point that I was making that it's, as Pat says, it's woken up to people that you don't want to wake up. Listen, I'm just going through life, I'm paying attention to this kind of stuff. You're like, hold on, what? What's going on? But kind of look, I don't want to rock the boat here. Kind of exactly what we talked about with Ann Coulter yesterday.

By all metrics, Republicans are up big. Put Trump aside, right? Because that's a whole anomaly, whether you like them, hate them, you know, all that. Put Trump aside, just the Republican brand seems a lot more sane than the Democratic brand these days. As you can see in the results, by all metrics, especially in the economy, if you just put a blank name, blank face,

Republicans are up in national polls. But Republicans like, hold my beer. Let's kick out the house majority leader. Let's cause chaos. We saw what Steve Bannon said yesterday. Be as crazy as possible. So that's kind of my point, is that Republicans,

what I will say, Democratic policy, typically not as, let's just say good, but their marketing is way better than Republican. There's no question about that. There's no question about that. And basically, we were just talking about this crisis with immigration, but you can connect the dots really, really fast. All those immigrants were supposed to stay in red states,

like Texas and Arizona and Florida, and turn them purple than blue over time. Except the federal government put a lot of those people on buses to those blue cities, and so you get what you vote for and Which leads to people in this chart. Let me let me let me say this Did he say I got feeling So you know what this does say though.'s a part they got to think about. Common sense prevails, time prevails.

Unfortunately, sometimes people take way too long to get it. That's a problem. People take way, when somebody says there's nothing wrong with an 8, 9, 10, 11 year old, you know, when these people are saying it's okay for them to transition. Oh yeah. Yeah, it's totally fine.

Yeah. Like the common sense person's sister says, what are you talking about? Yeah. But the people that are like, well, maybe they're right. Yeah. Who are they?

And then those guys, 10 years later, 20 years later, it's a shit. That was a terrible idea. Yeah. But common sense eventually prevails. It does. Sometimes it's at a cost of a great country. I want to go to another story here with Trevor Bauer.

Hmm. So Trevor Bauer. So Trevor Bauer was a Sai Young winner, 32 year old pitcher, Sai Young winner, getting ready to get his 200 million dollar contract that he was gonna get. Incredible pitcher he is. Stun, stud of studs, he's doing great, he's doing great stuff in baseball. And in all of a sudden, this guy's a little bit loud.

Baseball doesn't like him,. baseball doesn't like him. MLB doesn't like him. He talks trash. He would call the sayon award when he won. What did he call it? The Mickey Mouse Award. The Mickey Mouse sayon award. Yeah.

The Mickey Mouse sayon award. And he were Mickey Mouse shirt to a sayon. Yeah, he would vlog while playing for Major League. I love that. He was a blocker, YouTuber while playing for the Major League. He's a professional poker and I don't mean cards. In many ways, yes. Trevor Bowers accuser, Trevor Bowers accuser,

Lindsey Hall opens up on text and video claims. Lindsey Hill, who accused Trevor Bowers of sexual assault, responded to Bowers video sharing text messages and a video to support his innocence. She explained that some of her text messages, including one that read, Next victim, star picture for Dodgers, were sarcastic and taken out of context.

She also mentioned that her use of the word victim was inappropriate, but I meant in a serious context. I mean, I just ruined the guy's life for two years. What's the big deal? He'll discuss a video, bow her shirt in, which she appeared to be smiling after the alleged assault.

She clarified that her emotions were complex at the time and the video was sent to a cousin to show that everything was okay. She explained that bruises from such incidents can take time to appear and mention possessing selfies that demonstrate physical injuries. Can you play the video of Trevor Bauer, by the way? Can you just play the clip? I want you to actually play the clip of Bauer from the beginning. Watch this here. By the way, this guy is playing in Japan now because Major League Baseball suspended him for whatever the number of game

was then they lowered it to 50 games. 100 and what? 194 games. He lost $37 million. By the way, he didn't lose $37 million guys. During that time, he was at his peak of his career. He was about to get a $200 million back is It's what he was going to get that they took away from him. But play this clip here. Go for it. Next victim, star pitcher for her textings.

This is her texting. Okay. My text lens, he'll send to a friend before she ever even met me. What should I steal? She asked another in reference to visiting my house for the first time. The answer? Take his money. So how might that work?

I'm going to his house Wednesday, she said. I already have my hooks and you know how I roll Then after the first time we met net worth is 51 mil she said bitch She better secure the bag was the response, but but how is she gonna do that? Great me daddy to choke me out. She said being an absolute horde to try to get in on his 51 million Then after the second time we met former Padre's picture Jacob Nick's told her you got to get in on his 51 million. Wow. I've heard another text. Jesus. Then, after the second time we met, former Padre's pitcher, Jacob Nick's told her, you gotta get this bag.

I'll give you 50,000, Lindsey replied. Her AA sponsor asked her at one point, do you feel a tiny bit guilty? Not really, she replied. Since then, her legal team has approached me multiple times about coming to a financial settlement. But, as I have done since day one, I refused to pay her even a single cent.

Good boy. In August of 2021, Lindsay Hills claims were hurting courts. And during those legal proceedings, critical information was deliberately and unlawfully concealed from me and my legal team. Information like this video, which was taken by Lindsay Hill herself, the morning after she claims she was brutally attacked,

emotionally traumatized, and desperate to get away from me. And now we have the metadata, so there can be no dispute. It was taken mere minutes before she left my house on the morning of May 16th, 2021. Without my knowledge or consent, of course. In it, you can see her lying in bed next to me while I'm sleeping, smirking at the camera without a care in the world, or any marks on her face. I think it paints a pretty clear picture of what actually happened the evening of May 15th and why the video was originally concealed from us.

After hearing the evidence of real work, by the way, she gets confronted. Did you see this when she's getting confronted, Rob, do you have that video? She gets confronted on a podcast and a lady says, you texted this, you said this, you said that, you said this. How do you feel about it now? Well, you know, it's all me and taking out of context. It's not really true and it's not really this and it's not really that. You're supposed to believe all women, no path.

So by the way, you have to believe her. She's getting paid 500 to 5 grand a B on these podcasts, ladies and gentlemen. She is, she is a witness for hire right now. How do you know she's getting paid 500 to 500 grand to be on these podcasts ladies and gentlemen. She is, she is a witness for hire right now. How do you know she's getting paid up on a money? Because she needs money, she's freaking broke and the, and people get paid to be on podcasts. And by the way, she's getting paid. She's getting paid five hundred bucks. She's not going on a podcast or nothing.

Well, she also got a $300,000 settlement from the insurance company and through her lawyers after this was cleared. also got a $300,000 settlement from the insurance company and through her lawyers after this was cleared. But by the way, this is her, this is her, this is her act and I'm drunk at an event just to watch this. You go forward. Same girl. Oh, she's an evil.

Look at that. Hey, oh, she's an angry. Yeah, I'm sorry. I don't know that Metro's coming. Oh, I want to make sure she's going to bloodlight. It all makes sense. She's drinking that demon juice. The official beer of cheat of cleats she's bringing that demon juice.

Brother, look, you know, Shamela Anderson over here Like this is actually there's so many different ways we can go with this situation, you know The height of 2017 2018 the meet-to-movement Harvey Weinstein would get it. That was actually true Right and he was held accountable for that so So was someone like Bill Cosby. Less moon to it. Less moon to it. We all know what happened. So there's men out there, they're like, what the hell is going on?

Because you see what's going on out there. Where men, you know, they're being called gropers or certain other words or grapists, just because they want to go talk to women in public. Some breaking story on TikTok, some guy just tried to approach a girl to Jim. She's like, he's a salty man. He's like, I just said, what's up?

But here's on the surface, obviously men see something like this, like this is ridiculous. But I think going deeper, who should be the most upset are actually women. Because if you put aside these nonsensical, fabricated, manufactured stories, there actually are real stories about women that you know, do with issues. And what happens when these women full on lie

is now it's the pendulum of swung, the complete opposite way to the whole believe all women is now it's the boy who cried wolf syndrome or the girl who cried wolf syndrome. And they're like, yeah, how do we know this is true? True victim. So we've seen what's happened. Here's my point. We've seen what's happened. Here's my point.

We've seen what's happened. Well, it turns out Amber heard was a frickin' liar. And she actually has to pay $8 million to Johnny Depp for defamation. Turns out, Russell Brand will see what happens with him. Probably fake news type of thing. Turns out, Andrew Tate, Tristan Tate, yeah, it turns out these allegations,

they don't really have any evidence. It turns out I've done several of these things on my show, the Sawas cast where they literally show a woman on a podcast. She's like a famous rapper, not Cardi B. We'll get that in a second, who literally said her boyfriend was being mean or whatever, and she thought he was cheating. So what did she do? She called DCF on him, department of child and family services and said that he was cheating. So what did she do? She called DCF on him, department of child and family services and said that he was

abusing his kids and done on camera admitted, this is actually on Adam 22, I believe, uh, they took the kid. She said, I full on lied. And I got him back. Sorry about that. I'm young, but I'm passionate. But what's my point is that accountability needs to be to happen for these women for all the guys that did wrong stuff. You're passionate. But what's my point is that accountability needs to be to happen for these women. For all the guys that did wrong stuff, you're talking about the Harvey Weinz, the world, the Bill Casio, where's the accountability? Watch this video.

But ladies that have watched this video, just play this short clip. It says it's a longer interview, but just watch this 15 second clip. That's a great question. It's a really, really valid question. I think that's a really good question. How I phrased it. I think it's a super valid question. Everything you're asking me is a super valid question. I agree. That's a really good question. How I phrased it. I think it's a super valid question. Everything you're asking me is a super valid question.

I agree. That's why I'm asking. Again, super valid. You know what, that's something my lawyer is what have to answer. Anyway, it's embarrassing. Everything she asks is like, so, why would you text them this? You know you were doing this.

You were trying to get the money. Do you realize what you did to them? Oh, it's a valid question. It's a valid question. It's a super valid question. So the point now with Trevor Bowers this, you were trying to get the money. Do you realize what you did to him? Oh, it's a valid question. It's a valid question. It's a super valid question. So the point now with Trevor Bowers is this, okay, sounds good. Trevor Bowers is right. Okay, cool.

Now, he's in Japan. Yeah. Okay, he's big in Japan right now, okay? They love him. He's the 12 of them. He's the 12 of them. He's the 12 of them. He's the 12 of them.

He's a novel team. That's the girl. That's the girl. Yeah, they love him in Japan. He's a foreign player of player. They love him in Japan, but tell me the greatest Japanese hitter of all time. And how many hits in the homerun's as he has. Suzuki. Sada Hooper. Oh, okay. Of course, Tom knows it. Is that who it is? Yeah. Well, don't think I've robbed help me out here. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no What's the most home runs someone hidden in Japanese league? I think OOH almost got to Baybrooth. How many home runs that he had? By how many home runs that Roger Merriss had here?

61 for his records. How many did Baybit in a season? 747. No season. What's the most Barry bonds hit? 74 I believe. What did Barry bonds and Mark McGuire and Sandy Sosa do? It was a really good one.

70 and 66. I started going here. Nobody knows what the hell you know about Japanese. This guy's an American guy. He wants a legacy in America, not a Japan. Yep. So this guy wants that here. So now Dodgers, are you gonna, you know,

tweet out an apology for jumping the guy? MLB, are you gonna put an apology for what you did to this guy? Are you gonna do that? No. Because this whole concept, you know, half my frustration yesterday was, you know, when we're having this conversation to this guy. Are you gonna do that? Because this whole concept, you don't have to my frustration yesterday was, you know, when we're having this conversation with this guy about Trevor Bauer,

is this notion of guilty until proven innocent. You destroyed the guy's life. How about innocent until proven guilty? You suspended the guy based on allegations that girl made that were wrong. And now what? It's like impact and great point. His legacy, his name, because I don't care, because we talked about this the other day

Pat on usual suspects. The average person like this, they're not doing the research that you're doing. Right now the average person that sees him and that sees his name, you know what they're going to say, rapist, abuser, beater, gospel, that's it. It's perfect for the rest of his life. That's right. How much do you think he's in a suit, Pat? Because he's going to go after everybody. But it doesn't matter. Even if he does. I mean, this is, this is, this is. It's perfect. For the rest of his life. That's right. How much do you think he's gonna sue Pat? Cause he's gonna go after everybody.

No, but it doesn't matter, even if he does. I mean, this is, this is, this is part of the problem. Who's the screw you're talking about? Cause this the screw you're talking about. Well, there's nothing worse in this world than being wrongfully accused of something you didn't do. So Trevor Barr, I feel for you brother. I mean, are you kidding me?

Are there these, especially after the fact what's going on here? Like you see these things going on, where, you know, breaking news, man released from prison after being wrongfully for 20 years for 28 years and they give him a check for 1.2 million dollars well here's this girl that I'm talking about so there's a guy at the end of the story who had his kids taken away but that's not worry about that let's what we can do with her we throw in her jail but she actively full on full

lied watch his podcast She is in no danger of ever writing a Nobel Prize acceptance speech on this one She's I call child services on my eggs demon He pissed me off and then I was like him don't let this person whatever like you know cheater fucking piece of shit Lizable dumb shit looking to me our kids, I called child services on his ass and I like fabricated everything and like we got flustered things and they like went to the door and like there was a whole process like I don't even know if the children's aid workers still visits them but she probably does because of what I said like the the way I AI'd that shit,

you know, like real AI shit, like fake bruises, type shit. But if you go to hell, she's in as a minister, I obviously the guy interviewing her won't even be seen. I can't, but she'll show anything. But ladies, this is my point. It's like, why should women, why should men actually have respect for women who are willing to do

this? We've seen Cardi B come out and say yes. Before I was a famous rapper, I was a full-on stripper, I would go to Guy's house, drug them, steal their shit, jack them. If a guy did that, he would be held what? Accountable. Women can just go on podcasts, admit to getting guys kids taken away from them. Yeah. And joke about it.

I, I, I, that shit. Yeah. Where's the account? You don't buy the ring too. Anybody of that started to cut you off from anybody, any rich, successful, famous men. This is a lesson to be learned. You cannot be hooking up one night, St. Rob, Rob, you talked about this too, right? What did you say about the sexual experience she wanted?

The hair, it was insane, right? About the text message. I need daddy to choke me out. Yes, she was saying I want all the pain daddy needs to choke me out. I mean, they're very, very, not their favor. But my point being, if you're like, Pat, if you were single and you had no kids

and you're out there in the, by the way, he's out there, he's doing this thing. You not only have to have contracts, you have to have a camera, you're out there, by the way, he's out there, he's doing this thing. You not only have to have contracts, you have to have a camera, you have to have, hey, what's your, Sarah, we're hooking up, right? It's cool if I pull your hair and choke you. It's to that point, so I'm not blaming him,

but at the same token, you're this guy, you're in the public eye, the demons are out, looking for you in these moments. The only thing I'm happy about about this story is, though Tom, you think that chick will ever bang a guy with money. She's going to be banging dudes from Walmart. Let me tell you that. Left and right. Right. Fortunately, I think you're wrong. Well, I think that a girl who's hot enough will find some job. She's not that hot. She's

not that hot. Whether it's her or that. She's Walmart hot. Yeah. Rob, you see her at Walmart. Hey, there's a blueprint and it's a game plan for these types of girls. And if they're not held accountable We'll see what happens. I've been around guys big time dudes. They literally make girls sign NDAs before they even walk in the hell Yeah, literally before you walk into this house party sign this form right here I agreed that nothing to know that pat you've done a whole video where guys have to be like so hey What's up me and Mary right here? We about to do it right? You got sucks, but if you're that dude, a Trevor Bauer has $200 million on the line, you know, using a sports reference,

you can play offense, you got to play some defense. You got to have insurance balls. We can go on this for a long time this morning because there's three topics here I'm gonna bring up, really, really fast. The first is we're living in a world where we have the politicization of basically the criminal justice system.

And the Pasadena Police Department, I'm going to stay away from everything we're talking about here to my second point. The Pasadena Police Department sat on this stuff. When Trevor Bauer said metadata, he was talking about text messages that the Pasadena Police Department got because they gave us a peanut to AT&T in Verizon, and they got the real text messages. Your phone, erase it from your phone, it's in the surfers that the,

that the, the cell, the wireless carrier, your mobile provider, they had all of it, and they sat on it. And do you remember how long the Pasadena Police Department sat on it, and didn't file charges? Did not file charges, they never filed a criminal charge against the sky and they dropped it they were waiting for it to come out of the news they were feeling pressure that if they went out and basically said there's nothing to

see here we're not gonna prosecute that the the political machine was gonna come down on the d a in the d a the prosecutor and past the dean was scared squatless to say you know nothing to see here because they had the video and the DA, the prosecutor in Pasadena, was scared, squatless, to say, you know, nothing to see here, because they had the video and they had all this stuff. And bodily. So we're living in a political realm, and the second is, let me tell you,

you know, when you live in a hookup culture, there's consequences. Every college in America is doing orientation for their male athletes, and there's a phrase that's on those, because I've seen some of the PowerPoints It's called cleat chasers and they say hey, you're gonna find some girls are perfectly good. How's that? How's that?

Cleat like cleats. Oh, okay. Oh, that's how you're getting freaky. They're also called Jersey jumpers and they're all so cold And they use phrases that are not sexist, but they're saying hey what we're talking about here Then it's not an anti-woman word. It's just a description of people that want to chase you around and be with you and be part of the party. And in the middle of that, there may be girlfriends, but there may be some very bad actors

that are in the middle of the crowd. They're like, hey, I'm a big athlete. I got all the stuff going on. I'm living in a hook up culture here at University of whatever. And you've got the university now that's warning these guys, hey, you know what? the stuff going on. I'm living in a hook up culture here at University of whatever. And you've got the university now that's warning these guys, hey, you know what, you need to be careful about this because we will cut you. We will drop you. And it's about to get worse on campus, my third point, because of N-I-L, name, image, likeness. You now have

college kids that are going to have real money in their pocket. And it's about to come down a level to less mature men who are going to get attacked like Trevor Bauer did because you're going to be a college player with a $2 million contract. So what about that's a scope for me. And by the way, my last point so we can go on because Pat's got the next topic. What did they tell you in the military when you went out, not clubbing, not going to New York because you had military dollars, say it again, 15 will get you 20 and always have who with you. Always have a body. Ranger buddy. Yeah.

I was probably about to say, just for a quick timeline of this, Pat, not and Tom brought it up. The Pasadena Police Department declined to press charges against Trevor Bauer. The Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office also declined to press charges against him. The judge who issued the restraining order lifted the restraining order citing that the Los Angeles County District attorney's office also declined to press charges against them. The judge who issued the restraining order lifted the restraining order citing that he honored the woman's wishes in regards to rough sex.

He didn't go past the boundaries and despite all of that, Major League Baseball still decided to suspend him for 324 games. It's called a put dragging suspension. I don't think a suspension is a major league baseball history because they dragged their feet And you know it's you know it's scary. Thank God this guy has money. Can you imagine the guys that are out there pat that and

Yeah, imagine, but yeah, but think about the average guy that's like I got freaky shit. What you want me jail? 20 years Musk's book. Yeah, if you read my brother book. Brother, first of all, what up guys, do whatever you can, go read his book while for a while. Second wife with crazy training. Yeah, if you read his book, you'll see what Kimble talks about Amber Heard, Kimble's his brother, what his family says about Amber Heard,

you're gonna learn more about Amber Heard in this book. Oh great, then the documentary. Oh, okay. Cause it's gonna be on the inside what his insiders thought of her. That's what you have to read Oh, okay. Because it's going to be on the inside what hits inside your start of her. God, that's what you have to read. Go for it. Let's wrap it up. Guys, 30 seconds on the stop.

Here's my last point. Just how Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby are the poster child, the face of men who do this to women, right? Because that is a real thing. Proven guilty those guys. Right. Proven guilty women who do this, whether it's Cardi B, whether it's Amber heard to a certain extent, they need to be the poster child,

the face, and held accountable for what they've done wrong to Matt. So maybe- Let's get them, go to jail for 20 years. That's my point. Good. Like women need to learn lesson. You lie about this kind of stuff.

You get some dudes, kids taking away. You lie about getting choked out, abused, but it turns out you were into it just to steal 50 million dollars. When they go to jail, when this girl, whatever her freaking out you were into it just to steal 50 million dollars. Right. When they go to jail, when this girl, whatever her freaking name is, Lindsay Hill goes to jail, then women will be like, oh shit, you know that playbook? Yeah, maybe let's not use that this time. And especially right now, you got proof.

Everything can be shown in trace right now. You can be as today. People are going to see the text messages, the WhatsApp, all of that stuff. Let's go to the next story. Next story. Final comment. No, I'm not doing it, Tom. We're going's go to the next story. Next story. Final comment. No, I'm not doing it Tom. We're gonna go to the next story

because everybody's giving their last comment. 15 minutes. Next story. All right. So next story we wanna get to is, do we wanna do water crisis or adults shouting at children? Let's do adult shouting at children.

Okay, so check this out folks. You're gonna lose your mind and you're actually gonna go zero to angry in less than one minute. Ready? So check this out. CNN, pull up the story. Adults shouting at children can be as harmful

to child's development as sexual abuse. Let me read this to you one more time folks. Please just hear me out. CNN story written by IC Ronald, Tuesday the 3rd of October, 2023 at 5.06 p.m. adults, shouting at children, can be as harmful to child's development as sexual abuse or physical abuse. A new study published in Child and Abuse and a Glecht study shows that adults shouting, denigrating,

or verbally threatening children can be as damaging to their development as physical or sexual abuse, the study which viewed earlier studied calls for childhood verbal abuse to be recognized as distinct category of maltreatment to facilitate prevention efforts. Childhood verbal abuse classified as subtype of emotional abuse can have lifelong negative consequences, including mental distress, externalizing symptoms like criminal behavior or substance abuse, and physical health issues such as obesity or lung cancer, the study underscores the importance of acknowledging and addressing the impact of verbal abuse on children. Not single mother, you know, no father in the household.

Not teaching LGBTQ in school, not that stuff. No, that's totally fine. It doesn't at all mess with the kids at all. God forbid a mother raises her voice on kids. It could be worse, more harmful than sexual abuse. Tom, as a parent, how do you read this story? As a parent, what do you read this story? As a parent, what do you think about this nonsense here? You know what? Here's what I think about it. It's

ludicrous. Your child walks across the kitchen and you go, don't touch that hot stove. And your wife says to you, great. Now he's gay. It's like, what do you get? It's like a sad coming. Yeah. I think it's horrifying. Now, I've raised my voice to my girls. Absolutely raised my voice. Usually when they were giving an argument and thought maybe they could tell me something four times in a row, seeing if I'll finally believe it's true, every parent has that.

And I've raised my voice, stop. We're not doing that. Sit down, we're having a talk here and that that that and so but it's not yelling I think there's a On the concept of yelling there's a difference between yelling and belittling and just destroying your kids self-confidence and then being a parent and raising up the volume this says look this is serious You're not gonna lie to me because if you're lying to me here You're gonna be lying to your schoolteacher. Schoolteacher is after school.

There's a slippery slope here. And we're gonna talk about integrity and telling the truth and being honest. That's not yelling. That is correction, that is processing with your kids. But there is like drunk parent yelling and belittling, but does it lead to being as damaging as, you know,

father Felicia was basically abusing you for 10 years of the local parish, I don't think so. I'll add this, man. There's the levels to this, okay. I mean, I think we can all agree, sexual abuse, zero tolerance for that whatsoever. It's like how are you even comparing it to physical or verbal is absolutely assinine, okay?

Physical abuse, there's levels to that. Like, you know, I've been open on this, I had a very rough relationship, my father, like he was very quick to take the belt out, put it that way. But sometimes a kid does need a little, little, what do you call it, a little pow pow? A little something, something, a little pow pow.

I get it, there's levels to that too. There's full on abuse of a little, what do you call it? A little pow pow? A little something, something? A little pow pow. I get it. There's levels to that too. There's full on abuse of a kid, but then there's like, all right, like I used to get my mouth wash out with soap. Didn't really work, because I'm still out of your curts and I'm there. I got to work on that, but there's levels to this. When it comes to verbal abuse, I mean, there's levels to that too. Tom Hintonell on the head where he said, look, if you're just berating someone and calling them

to lose, all right. Like, you know, I don't have kids, but I'm very active in my nephew's life. I was a teacher, I was a cam counselor. I've been around kids, believe me. As a teacher or as a dealing with kids, you're gonna raise your voice. Okay, I'm very cool.

My nephew's like my best friend. I love that kid, he's 10 years old. The other day, he's riding his bike in the street. And he'll get out of the fucking street. Because sometimes you have to raise your goddamn voice. And then you say that and he was like, he got you right. He got so shook.

Yes, I don't. I feel so dirty. He got so shook because I yelled and I never yelled this kid. But I had to emphasize my point. Bro, you're riding your bike way too close to the street, you fucking idiot. Get out of the street, now why don't I want you to do that? Because I love you and I want you to be alive.

So to bring this all in, sexual, are you freaking kidding me, CNN? It's not even comparable. This is CNN, this is... Yeah, by the way, it's pretty embarrassing to have the brand. Like if some blog wrote this, okay, whatever. The brand. CNN is okay this, okay, whatever. The brand. CNN is okay with this being written about it.

Of course they are. Of course they are. And it's CNN health by the way. Yeah, just to kind of like, they're so worried about your health. Think about it. Go striding for the audience. And then you guys think about it Pat,

we were disciplined and guess what? I think you turned out pretty good. The pop-up house work. And if you think about it, if you can't discipline, if you can't discipline, pop out. it, if you can't discipline, if you can't discipline, pop out. Yeah, if pop out. If you can't discipline the kids,

then the kids can do whatever they want because they know that there's no consequence. And when there's no consequences, they can do whatever they want. They can break and steal shit. They can say, you know what? I wanna chop my crotch-off dad. And what are you gonna do?

You're gonna hit me, you're gonna say, you can't say none of that. And that leads Pat to bigger pictures and bigger problems, which we have right now with them pushing the agendas and the kids and the LGBT, all the children stuff, which is a whole different- And if there's no- I'm not gonna be the only one who's singing it.

Yeah, because I was just gonna say, and yeah, please, Pat, cause this goes to my point, look at this trickle-down effect, and some people are like, oh, Vinnie's crazy. No, no, I'm not connecting that. That's right in front of your face. Why is it that Hollywood, all these weird Epstein people, they're always pushing the LGBTQ agenda?

People, nobody ever takes a step back, why? Because they care about your kids and their freedom and for their choice of, no, no, no, if you think about it, and then why when movies come out, Tom, what was the sound of freedom? I had them to sound the silence. The sound of freedom.

And nobody in Hollywood cares. Nobody big was pushing it. What, Jim Cavizel, one guy, they kind of want to keep on the hot shots because I saw a video by Dr. Omar Johnson where he was like, if you're a pedophile, is like, if I was a pedophile, guess what I would push?

The LGBTQ movement. And he said, you know why? Because if the kids old enough at that age to change their body, who are you to say that they can't have sex? That's the argument, Rob, do you play that? Play that video, it's a short video, but he really makes a really, really good point.

And I want you guys to see how it plays this. This guy's not like he had no holds, he doesn't hold back any punches, he tells it exactly how it is. I am a pedophile. I don't want to go to jail. I want pedophilia to become normal. I want it stricken from the criminal code all together.

I'm going to push LGBTQ. Check it. Because if a child is old enough to decide, I never want to have children. Take my testiclesicles take my ovaries If by 8 9 10 11 year old child is old enough to make those three decisions How can you argue that they're not old enough to decide to have sex? Bingo the argument of the pedophile is going to be backed up by this LGBT crusade against our children because in their sick minds, they are rationalizing the argument before the courts.

If he's old enough to say, I don't want my testicles. If she's old enough to say, I never want to have children. If he's old enough to say, I want to live my life as a girl. If she's old enough to say, I want a little life as a boy, and I don't care about having kids, and she can say this at 12, is she not also old enough to decide when she's ready to have sex?

What a great, simple, simple point. And that's why you see it, but that's why you don't see it, because it's, like you said, Tom, the supply chain, they don't want you messing with this. Let them be, they want to give them the mature mindset as a young kid bro so they could just Do whatever the hell they want with them because if a kid at that age that you know decision no discipline or nothing That's the type of shit that I'm talking. There's lunacy in here too. I'm gonna ask Pat three quick questions Pat

Tiko and Delan out there playing baseball bang Break the neighbors front glass window at their... Has it never happened before? Never. It's very, or maybe a book. Maybe a book. It goes right into some very famous play window of your neighbor's house. You know, your kids are under 14.

Who pays for that window? Daddy. Correct. Kid goes at school, whips out the Dixau. If you don't get to know about it, and then they're very, very upset. They have a fight with another child. They break three teeth out of the front.

Who pays for that? Daddy. Correct, until they're 18 years old. So there are two big forces coming together here. Parents are told that you are financially responsible for things they do all the way up to X, yet all the things that they do all the way up to X yet all the things that they

That they keep from the parents are sexually related. Yeah, all the responsibility. No one has taken away any Responsibility on parents to do anything every single thing abortion get birth control at school, you know Gender reassignment cross-dressing labeled as, all of that is kept from the parent. It's sexualization, and you just made a great point about it. It is supply chain management America that is happening before your very eyes. You know, and when the act like it's not happening, yeah, but you know what's gonna happen.

You know what's gonna happen. God, no, look, of course, but look what happened in Chicago. Migrants should be used in our gym, and we should give to another no you're just my kids over my grants, okay? Exactly. Oh, oh we great. Yes. Hey someone's out there Yeah, what's wrong with this LGBTQ and then you're told your son comes on mommy I think I'm a girl. No, you're not what are you fucking? I don't know. I had it What would you do this my school? Exactly. Eventually, time is going to be on common sense of sight.

I'm going to keep saying this. Eventually, everyone's going to realize these were all dumb. But did you notice some of the craziest wildest policies came out during COVID? Some of the things that created all this momentum was during COVID. By the way, check this out. Next story, world economic forum advisor,

the coming water crisis will force people to accept climate mandates. Okay? Let me read it to you one more time, folks. The coming water crisis will force people to accept climate mandates. Let's see where they're going with this. Mariana Mazucato, okay, an advisor to the world economic form believes that the impending water crisis will serve as a more relatable and urgent issue that climate change stating

water every kid knows how important it is to have water. So there's also something about really getting citizen engagement around this and really in some ways experimenting with the notion of common good. Mazucato suggests that the world economic form may use the water cry, may use, may use, it's like a prop, may use the water crisis to advance climate mandates, may use to climate mandates, sane world economic forms, globalists may use water

a necessary substance for human life to create panic to advance the agenda and force climate man. By the way, this is what you this is a quote. Let me read this quote again. The world economic form global is may use water a necessary substance for human life to create panic. He were to scare the crap out of you. To advance the agenda and force climate mandates the world economic form on its official

website emphasizes the impact of water-related crisis on society, it's particularly the support and cost for governors of water as global common good Vinnie. And mine, Drew, and Rob has the video pass, so I know everybody's always like things that we're bananas, but these people, these evil, everybody at these places that has an accent, like Glaus Schwab, I don't trust any of these people. And she actually said, and this is

what she's going to say, Pat, she said, we tried to vaccine vaccinate the entire planet. That failed. Climate change is too abstract for people to understand. So basically what she's saying is Pat, you know what we're going to have to do? We're going to mess with the water because all you idiots drink water and this is evil right in your face saying. Watch this. Good. Also of course true with COVID, right? We are all only as healthy as our neighbors on our street, in our city, in our region,

in our nation and globally. And did we solve that? Did we actually manage to vaccinate everyone in the world? You look like. Yeah. So highlighting water is a global commons and what it means to work together and see it both out of that kind of global commons perspective

but also the self-interest perspective because it does have that parallel. It's not only important, but it's also important because we haven't managed to solve those problems which had similar attributes and water is something that people understand. Climate change is a bit abstract. Some people understand it really well.

Some understand it a bit. Some just don't understand it. Water, every kid knows how important it is to have water when you're playing football and you're thirsty. You look at a rock. So there's also something about really getting citizen engagement around this and really, in some ways, experimenting with this notion of the common good.

Can we actually deliver this time in ways that we have failed miserably Other times and hopefully we won't keep failing on the other things, but anyway And by that you realize when she said looks like she could manage two plates 100% So it's like Arnold sister. She the fact that she just said pat She goes we tried to vaccinate everybody on the planet. It didn't work Then you know what she says she goes climate change is too is too abstract. No, bitch, you know what that, you know what that abstract means?

We're not believing in your BS. Okay, the world's gonna be fine. But for her to say, out loud, this is when I say, when evil is in your face and they're smirking and they're laughing at you, she's saying, you know what? When we come after the water, then it's gonna be a problem

because guess what, even your kids drink this water. That's scary. Well, the thing for me is there's the problem, and then there's the solution. I think most people are in agreement on certain problems. Okay, COVID was a problem. All right, global warming, a problem. The water crisis, it's actually real,

especially in sub-Saharan Africa in the Middle East. It's a Sahara desert, it's a problem. The question is the solution. The solution, as we all know during COVID, wasn't everyone has to get mandates, everyone has to get jabbed, lock it down, probably not the best solution, right? We have this conversation the other day

with our friend Liz, like what's the solution to global warming? How much of a zit man made? When it comes to water, you're saying that they're using this opportunity to maybe push the climate change agenda I mean here's the facts according to UNICEF on the global water crisis 770 million people lack access to clean water. That's one in 10 people almost People spend an estimated 200 million hours Every day carrying water the average person walks rule Africa

6 kilometers, which is about 3.7 miles every day to haul 40 pounds of water and urban water demand is expected to increase 80% by 2050 quote unquote unicef. There's definitely a global water crisis. I don't think anyone's objecting to the fact that people need water. There's a water crisis, especially in certain parts of the world, Africa, the Sahara, the Middle East, Lebanon, Afghanistan, like everyone in there, like, but is the solution exactly what the world economic form suggests? I would be very cautious with whatever they have.

You know, you know, the movie, Big Short, when the movie ends and everybody's blown away by this guy, Michael Burry. You know what the movie said at the end? What Michael Burry's focus was next after the next war is what fought over water over water. Oh wow. And you know what he said that in a wait. That guy's a he's a freaking psychic. That guy's good. So meaning like for everybody that's watching this stop listen to the podcast go to the near Vons go to the nearest Ralph sorry Albert Sons or what it what is, a crowgirls, or what is it here, or public, Sam's club. Quietly, without saying anything to the owner,

go quietly, fill up every single card that you have with every water they're selling and just buy it. And get one of those commercial, get one of those, so any reason why you buy, which is a big party, just a party, a big party, we're having a battle. No reason.

I'll add one more thing. I mean, we're so lucky here in America that this is not our daily, life-ly issue. And when it is, like Flint, Michigan, a few years ago, oh bro, everyone took notice. Oh, one. Ancient pipes and lead poisoning. Right, and the city knew it.

So, what, there's no clean water in the, what is America? What is happening right now? There's still a problem. We just talked about in East Palestine, all right? The water that was basically turned talks. Still talk to the still thing. Okay. Thank God in America. These are one off segmented issues. Imagine being in other parts of the world and literally not having access to clean water. So think twice before

you talk shit about America, go move anywhere else in the world. You're letting out the water situation. Yeah, good luck. Type, next story. Miss Alaineus, American Apocalypse. Uh-oh. A question marks 71% don't trust the US government to prevent Doomsday. Oh, how did that happen? This is a study that just came out yesterday. Obviously, it's a very inspiring story, but let's go through it. A survey conducted by bonusfinder.com revealed that 71.2% of Americans have lost faith in US government ability to save them

from or prevent a Doomsday event. With many believe in that such an event would occur within the next year, change related catastrophic, here's what we're at the top concern with 55.8% of respondents. Fearing this type of Doomsday scenario, additionally, a third of respondents believe that another virus could sweep the globe and 25% feared the start of World War III. A smaller percentage considered scenarios like an alien invasion or events in 2024. The lack of trust in the US government was bipartisan. 82% of respondents in the swing state of Arizona expressing this trust.

Some respondents, 16% cited social media and content they consume as influencing their doomsday preparations while others pointed to news, family, and movies. Okay. Vinnie, what are your thoughts on the story? Well, first of all, it's funny that 71% don't trust the government to prevent doomsday. Aren't we at the highest level of them don't trust the government to do anything, period with anything with politics and everything? So I think when it does come to a doomsday event, don't rely on the government to do anything period with anything with politics and everything. So I think when it does come to a Doomsday event, don't rely on the government. You have to rely on yourself.

And I'm not talking about building a bunker or doing things like that. But listen Pat, I don't know if you have this. Do you have like a to-go set up ready to go just in case God forbid something happens? We're shit going down and you have to get everybody in the car and go. Submarine Park, that's the house of the wall. happens where shit's going down and you have to get everybody in the car and go submarine park that house. And I'm being serious. I have a bag at my house, the O shit just in case you got to go back and obviously

thank God, you know what I'm saying? I'm armed. I have guns and stuff, but MREs, I went to the Army surplus store. You have to, people don't think about I'm dead serious at them. I'm not one of those guys that's because you know rob has a bunker We're right Peter pride. I'm really we're just going there to Peter pride Yeah, but yeah, but got God forbid and I'm hoping it never happens Let's just say Adam you get that emergency alert that came on everybody's phone yesterday

And it's something's really happening what are you gonna go like this? No, no you guys go I'm waiting for the government FEMA's gonna send me a thing that no, no, nobody's gonna give a shit It's gonna be every man for himself. So I think you have to be prepared to take care of you and your own. I'll tell you what, thank God you have that back. The only thing I have is like an overnight sleepover back. Quick, we did you out here, boom, I'm sleeping up, boom.

With your cat, you know what, bring your cat. But I think I'm extra back of a kibble. There we go. I think a lot of people, normal people who would look at Doomsday Preppers and you see those commercials, hey, come over here to, you know, Arkansas, wherever Oklahoma and get your piece of land and go underground, people are like,

the hell these guys, how come you're here to those? Now they're like, you know what? What was that place again? What was that thing again? I think people are like, what's going on? Yeah, because the world has changed so drastically. But Pat brings up a great point. We have this guy, Peter Pryon.

These, I think he's the only guest you had on back to back within a month. It was really. And then he died. And then he died. It was crazy. When he died of, not in the middle of the podcast. He died a couple months after.

But I was just like, he only rest his song. There's a lot of people that actually really love that guy. Super old. Seriously. Super super smart. It's actually worth watching, because he talked about how to build a EP, what was it called?

Underground bunker. Yeah, but what was it called? PMDs, what was it called? Rob? Prepers? No, no, sure. I got to go back and look. It was, you know, sort of like nuclear war for there was, yeah, he was probably just right here. Oh, yeah, I do remember that. We had episode 155 and then five episodes later we brought him back to the discuss. And then it passed the way it was called, but it didn't get mixed with. You know, but the whole conversation I had with him was like,

you know, Mr. Pride, Dr. Pride, totally understand what you're saying, but most people are struggling, you know, two-thirds of America's living paycheck to paycheck. We see debt on the rise. We see people basically completing about inflation interest rates. Now you're telling me, I gotta go buy some piece of property underground bunker in Oklahoma.

And I got, like, who's buying this? He's like, look, I hear you, but go get it. And the ironic thing, God rest his soul, he died, turns out he didn't need a bunker. But at the same time, at least we have this vault. And whatever property we get whatever new property we get I totally recommend that we hollow out the downstairs and have one of those Little on by the way to be like to be I'm not being funny what I'm trying to tell you have you seen the doomsday

bunkers like the high-end luxury straight down pan Here rock can you show this? I'm sending you. That's kinda sweet. No, somebody's thinking that I are. And no, like, it's actually a big thing, right, that one right there. Some are a lot more like that. I want to watch this. 11 luxury doomsday bunnies. This is real.

This is real? This is underground. What the hell? Yes. Zoom in a little bit so we can see the pictures. Keep going. It looks like Trump Plaza. Underground.

What? Only 17 grand a night. You can keep going. So this is an underground apartment. What yes, keep going This is another one keep going. This is a condo under look at that. Oh my god Bro, if you got the money. Yeah, if you got the money it looks like that building in Chicago People see the circle. It's a site down building going down. Oh my god Can imagine imagine that tried and it and lay. Keep going.

Yeah, get the prices on these though. No, but that's what I want to know. It's what man. It's what man. Las Vegas underground shelter. Look at this. Kids play ground running around, dude and their thing. There's a game.

But if you can't afford one of these, you better befriend somebody. That's one of those crazy doomsday guys. This that house right there looks like that one house where once a year you can kill people purge or whatever it's called. That's a bird job. Keep going, Laura. This that house right there looks like that one house where once a year you can kill people, birds or whatever it's called. Birds, that's a bird job. Keep going, Laura.

Okay, look at these houses. Let's restrate about it. We'll bump into this right next to each other, like military. Keep going, keep going, keep going. Pat, what's the percentage of elites that you think I'm talking about the real rich that have these things? Achtan bha'i, Hadna, Shepard. There are people that are actually in the other side of our language.

I'm a boy in that kind. I'm a boy in Hadna. Okay, so I'm sorry. I'm not buying that kind of. I'm not buying a cotton. Okay, so I'm not the hemphilite. I'm anyways. So, to our viewers out there, that wasn't some weird audio. So if that's just their Syrian language, it goes back to the bottom of the box. Don't worry about that.

When I find these, they're bad. I'm not buying cotton. Yeah, exactly. That just said that they're gonna go by a doomsday prepper out there, right there. Vinnie, but you know why you can't do it in Florida here? We can't buy one in Florida. Because the Piscaine aquifers in the way is because we're basically like a few feet above water

If we go any lower here, we'll be swimming boom you're hitting the water anyways, okay Is there any story you really really want to cover before we wrap up Tom? Did you have anything you did you want to talk about the jobs report? Do we do we cover it all more? I think we kind of covered economy when more data comes out in a week Let's pick up then okay tomorrow a couple things guys tonight. I'm gonna be at the temple even in Miami Okay, they're gonna be going on will be will be there tomorrow temple and Jimmy door will be here on a podcast Brought what time are we doing it tomorrow? Was it is it 8 am 7 am 9 am 9 am We do it at 7 am

You know what? You know, 4 a.m. Let's just sit down. Let's be grown up, guys. A.M. tomorrow, Jimmy door and Tim Pull. It should make for an exciting podcast. And tomorrow, we don't have an end time. So we may go over two hours. We're going to go three hours tomorrow.

I don't know what we're going to go with, but it depends on what we'll do tomorrow. Tomorrow night, I'll be here. I'll be in Miami. And in next, we've got a bunch of things going on, Gank. And then unless if you guys got any. I just got just one more time for my, my, my,

I'm going to be in the Tampa improv. October 18th for one show, 7 p.m. The tickets are improv, Tampa.com. The prop could put it on there. And our friend Mike is birthdays today. So I want to say birthday to Mike. Which one? Oh, big Mike.

Zubi Mike. Zubi Mike. Big Mike is just in the end of the year. Oh Jay. Oh Jay. Oh Jay. Oh Jay. That's it. That's it. Happy birthday. Go watch this man. And I'm going to be I'm talking about everything and making fun of every side and Tom's comedy specials coming out when next month Tom's opening for me.

Okay, Tom's out support. Support. Go to Pamplett and prop and support 18 Vinnie. It's your life Vinnie. If you're in support, go to the floor. Out of a great week and take care. Bye bye bye bye. If you're in support, your local community will have a great week and take care.

Bye bye bye bye.