PBD Podcast - Jiang Xueqin Finally Breaks His Silence With PBD | PBD #772

Episode Date: April 7, 2026

Patrick Bet-David sits down with Jiang Xueqin to discuss his predictions on Trump’s return and a U.S.–Iran war, his argument that the U.S. would ultimately lose such a conflict, and his views on g...lobal power structures including claims about secret societies and geopolitical strategy.---------📳 SUBSCRIBE TO JIANG'S SUBSTACK: https://bit.ly/4dzGPtlⓂ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2⁠⁠⁠⁠ 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠🇰 KALSHI: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time!ABOUT US:Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 30 seconds. Did you ever think you would make it? I feel I'm supposed to take sweet bit of me. I know this life meant for me. Adam, what's your point? The future looks bright. The handshake is better than anything I ever signs. Right here.
Starting point is 00:00:18 You are a one of one? My son's right. I think I've ever said this before. So my guest today is Gian Chichewin, and I did my best to pronounce the last name. I've been looking forward to the conversation with you for quite some time. The day the interview came out with you and I believe it was Saga and Crystal, which I thought it was fascinating, how a man in July of 2024 can predict that Trump's going to win,
Starting point is 00:00:48 then he's going to go to war against Iran, and then Iran's going to win, which was your prediction. And I said, I want to talk to him. And so let's get the nasty stuff out of the week. I actually want to have a civil conversation with you. I'm actually very curious about why you think the way you think. One, at the beginning when we had that, our team reached out to you to get on the podcast. And I think on a podcast you said you thought it was going to be a hit piece interview.
Starting point is 00:01:12 What gave you the impression I was going to do a hit piece on you? Well, it was just a timing because the day you got in touch, there was a coordinate smearer campaign against me on Twitter, meaning that there were some influencers who were using the same talking points against me, just saying that I just make stuff up. And it seemed very similar. So I was very afraid. Also, at that time, I was under a lot of stress.
Starting point is 00:01:39 So I didn't want to put myself in a situation where I would be asked hard questions. And I didn't think I would be able to respond properly to hard questions. And I watch you show, I'm a huge fan of yours, Patrick. So I know you're very good, you ask very good questions. I appreciate that. And that's a fair assessment. And then, again, the other part I want to get out of the way on Mehdi Assam when you were on there and professor, not professor, we've all seen that viral stuff that's been out. So if you're comfortable, I'm going to call you Jiang, if that's okay with you as we're going through it.
Starting point is 00:02:11 That's perfect. That's perfect. Beautiful. Yeah, absolutely. So I appreciate that. Question for you. So when you said, again, I've seen the entire interview and I've seen a lot of your stuff because what I like is seeing what the market is saying and why, right? some people have certain patterns, and your experience is a very interesting one because
Starting point is 00:02:30 you went to Yale College, you've lived in Canada, you're now in Hong Kong, if I'm not mistaken. No, no, Beijing. I'm sorry, my apologies. You're in Beijing right now. And so you have a very interesting perspective of these three different worlds, and there's a lot of things to talk about. What analysis or what patterns did you notice for you to say, you know, not the first one that Trump was going to win, because let's set that one aside. But the one that U.S. is going to go to war with Iran and then we're going to lose.
Starting point is 00:02:59 What gave you the analysis or something to say? I think that's what's going to happen. Right. So in school, I teach history. And I try to teach world history, an entirety of human history, stretching from the cave paintings during the United States, about 10,000 years ago to today. And while teaching history, I've noticed some patterns emerge in history. And the major pattern is how empires tend to decline.
Starting point is 00:03:29 And they decline for a particular reason, which is hubris. So empires believe that they are invincible and that knowing can touch them. So they engage in activities that are not very strategic. For example, the Persians invaded the Greek mainland in about 490 BCE with a massive invasion force. And they were destroyed by the Greeks. And then the Athenian Empire, which emerged after the Persian Empire, started to engage in Hubert's as well. And in 415 BCE during the Pelopetian War against Sparta, they launched an ill-advised silly invasion of Sicily, and they lost the war because of this invasion.
Starting point is 00:04:14 And so a pattern emerges where empires in decline, they tend to engage in risky wars that they believe they even win easily. but which forces them to expand valuable resources on a quagmire. So the most recent example, of course, was Vietnam. So it is my belief that if the United States would go to war with Iran, then it would lose this war because the United States would not have the manufacturing capacity, the large-social network, in order to sustain a war in the mountainous terrain of Iran. And so the big question was, would Iran go to war? Sorry, would the United States go to a war with Iran?
Starting point is 00:04:54 And if you looked at Trump's first presidency, there were clear signs that he was being heavily influenced by Israel. He moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He promoted the Abraham Accords. He recognized Israel's control over the Golan Heights. He ordered the assassination of General Kassim Salamani in January 2020. And so if he had a second term, he would have most certainly gone to war against Iran. So that's how he came to my conclusion.
Starting point is 00:05:27 Got it. And by the way, there's a very good book written by Jim Collins where he says, why the mighty fall? Why the mighty fall? And he goes through five steps, stages of the glint, and it validates what you're saying. Number one is hubris, born of success. We're great because we're great and we're untouchable, right? Number two, an undisciplined pursuit of more. We all fall for this trap when we succeed.
Starting point is 00:05:53 Let's go do more, faster, bigger, right? Number three is denial of risk and peril, which is we're fine. We have nothing to worry about. Number four is grasping for salvation. This is what we need to save, but we need help. And then number four is capitulations to irrelevance or irrelevance or death, which is over. I'm a Syrian. Trust me, we lost our empire many, many years ago.
Starting point is 00:06:12 And we were very, very powerful. We don't have a country right now. So you have to always stay a little bit paranoid about what could happen. Now, let me go to the tweet of what President Trump posted on Truth Social this morning. The world is reacting to it. A lot of people are not happy. A lot of people are curious. Some people are saying this is good.
Starting point is 00:06:30 But I would say a lot of the people are probably on. This is crazy what's about to happen today. J.D. Vance said something this morning that it's probably coming to an end. A whole civilization, President Trump said, on Truth Social, A whole civilization will die tonight. Never be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change,
Starting point is 00:06:54 where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionary, wonderful can happen. Who knows? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in a long and complex history of the world, 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran. How do you interpret that tweet?
Starting point is 00:07:19 I think that Trump is trying to go for maximum leverage in negotiation. But the reality is that the Iranians will not back down, and American forces already assembled in the Middle East. So I think that we will see a ground invasion as early as this weekend. And it will be a multi-vector ground invasion, meaning that right now the Americans are attacking Kark Island, which is where Iran will export 90% of its oil from. And so the Americans intend on seizing Kark Island
Starting point is 00:07:53 and strangling the Iranian economy. There will probably be an attack on Kassam Island as well in order to wrestle control of the shor-homuz. There will also be an attack on the Iranian coastline in order to scout out air defenses. So I think that we are approaching a major escalation on the next few days. So try to decode this because the average person who reads this, they say, who talks like that? You know, what do you mean a whole civilization will die tonight, never brought back again?
Starting point is 00:08:27 But if you're somebody that's, you seem like a pattern recognition type of guy and you kind of watch how people speak. And we know this is how he speaks, right? He's not the most predictable guy. He's got predictable side, but also unpredictable side, decode what he's saying here. Is this his last chance of negotiation for there not to happen? Is this his last chance of saying, I hope somebody says, hey, let's go out there and negotiate with them? Because Pakistan tried to bring the peace deal on both sides, and U.S. declined it, and so did Iran. So if you were to decode this a little bit more on where president's minds at, what would you say?
Starting point is 00:09:03 Well, I would say that Trump has a history of working in reality TV. He thinks in terms of television, he asks himself, what will draw attention, what will look good on TV, what will get people very emotional and afraid and anxious. So he spent a lot of time in the world wrestling entertainment with Vincent McVan. They had a feud, a television feud, and that's really how you speak in the WWE. You are rhetorical, you are bombastic, and you try to instill fear and rage in people. And so what Trump is trying to do is he's trying to help. It's really flexing. The other issue that's very worrying right now is that Trump has surrounded himself with advisors who are psychophants.
Starting point is 00:09:56 And they're not actually relaying to him good strategic advice. So, for example, what just happened this weekend was that Trump announced the rescue of a down American pilot. And if you watched the press conference yesterday, he fought a tremendous success and was very proud of the military for doing it impossible, going deep into enemy lines and rescuing a wounded pilot. And this is a great tribute to the professionalism and self-sacrifice of the American military. especially the special forces. But on Twitter, on acts, on social media, what they're saying is that this was actually not necessarily a successful rescue operation.
Starting point is 00:10:46 It seems that evidence is emerging that this was a failed seizure, a failed attempt to seize Iran's uranium, enriched uranium in the Asaphan power plant. And if that is a case, then that was an extremely risky mission. And it's very consequential because America lost about $300 million worth of planes and equipment in this failed raid. So my concern is that Trump has surrounded himself with advisors who feed his ego.
Starting point is 00:11:22 And Trump himself believes that just by flexing, just by taking a very tough negotiating position, he can bully the Iranians into a compromise. So I think that we are in a very precarious situation right now. What do you think, though, worst case that could happen, the best case? Walk me through. And by the way, just out of curiosity, would you consider yourself a, like, if we're in July of 2024, would you say you were a supporter of Trump? Like, you wanted to see him win?
Starting point is 00:11:56 So I'm pretty politically neutral. but in July 2024, I was very confident Trump would win, and I felt that America needed a change. So if I were American and I had the opportunity to vote in November of 2024, I would have voted for Trump over Biden. Got it. That's very important for the audience to know that, because I don't think you've revealed that,
Starting point is 00:12:18 because your criticism is just what you think is going to happen, but you still would have chosen a Trump over a Biden or a Kamala. Now, here's the question that we're, you know, everywhere, we're talking to others. What's the best case, worst case, okay, on what could happen here? The best case scenario is that the Americans and Iranians reach a compromise where they agree to share the share of Hamos. So there will be toast collected because the Iranians want reparations for the damage
Starting point is 00:12:50 that the Israelis and Americans cause these this past month. But they agreed to share it with Americans. and they agreed to collect the tolls in US dollars. And all sanctions are lifted, and peace comes to the Middle East. And there is a possibility. I'm not saying this is impossible, but it is a very low probability, and this would be the best case scenario. Best case scenario.
Starting point is 00:13:16 Give me the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is that Trump follows through and bombs all of Iran's powerpoint. And the reason why this is the worst case scenario is that there are certain individuals who are now trying to protect the power plants with their bodies. So the Iranian government has called on for the young people of Iran to make the ultimate sacrifice and make the human chain around all power plants in Iran. And so the Americans go in, they blow up all the power plants and kill a lot of young people.
Starting point is 00:13:52 Well, in this case, the Iranians are obligated now to destroy the entire economy of the GC This would include all oil fields. This would include all the designation plants. This would include all data centers. And this would be the absolute worst case scenario. What's your likelihood of that happening? Give a percentage. Like if you're going to do a Cal sheet type of, I think that's a 1%, 2%.
Starting point is 00:14:13 If you were a betting man, what would you say it is? So I would say best case scenario is 1%. I would say worst case scenario is 10%. And I would say a limited ground incursion would be about 40%. Okay, so you have a higher likelihood of us hitting the power plans than the best case scenario happening. Ten times more likely the worst case than the best case. How does Trump, because your prediction was Trump wins, Trump goes to war with Iran, and America loses. Define losing, because some people could say Afghanistan was a loss, right? The way Biden left, you know,
Starting point is 00:14:48 we left, whatever, $83 billion of costs us, we left $7 billion of equipment there, whatever the numbers are. Define loss. What does loss mean to? you? Right. So loss means that America is forced to retreat from the Middle East. And this will enable Iran to control the GCC countries. Because remember, the GCC is very important for the petrol dollar system where the GCC sells its oil in US dollars and then recyclists back into the American economy, primarily
Starting point is 00:15:19 by investing in AI. So a lot of these AI data centers are financed by investment from these GCC-Servoir wealth funds. And so if America were to retreat from the Middle East, they would lose the petrol dollar, the American economy would collapse, and you would have a civil war emerge in America. A civil war emerge in America. Okay. Interesting. Do you think the president has a team of rivals right now that are trying to prevent that from happening? Because I think that you and I both know the president is a, what do you think, asking everybody? What are your thoughts?
Starting point is 00:16:03 What do you think? What do you think? What do you think? Elizabeth Warren and said, hey, what do you think about us doing this to the credit card companies? And Elizabeth Warren's like, I was confused when he called me. You know, President Trump will bring Mamdani in and say, hey, don't worry about it. Be critical. Say whatever you want to say about me.
Starting point is 00:16:19 I'm okay with that. You don't need to explain yourself. So he talks to everybody. Do you think he is fully aware of the risks of what could happen if he goes aggressive here? Do you think he's fully aware of it? I think, unfortunately, he started himself with psychophants, right? So President Trump said about a couple weeks ago, when people asked him, why are we in this war?
Starting point is 00:16:43 Because he has never been articulate a reason or an objective for this war. And he basically said that, well, Jared Kushner, Steve McCaw. of Peter Hackssev, Marco Robio, talked me into it. So what he's done is he's basically elevated the hawkish elements of his administration and basically ostracize or put on the sidelines, the more cautionary, conservative elements of his administration who include J.D. Vance and Towsy Gabbard.
Starting point is 00:17:15 So I believe that J.D. Vance has been very vocal in trying to negotiate a peace treaty as soon as possible, and now he's in Hungary, far away from the action. And there's rumors of Tulsi Gabbard being removed from the administration at some point. Yeah, Tulsi I think there was another name as well. Tulsi and Howard Lutnik were the two names that were brought up yesterday that may be next on the, you know, chopping blocks that he may move on from. Going back to it, Iran, IRC, your opinion on them, you hear the phrase, you know, they're the biggest the producers of terrorism,
Starting point is 00:17:52 there's many different phrases people use against them. How dangerous do you think Iran is led by the current regime to the world, especially to the Gulf States, the six GCC countries you're talking about, but how dangerous you think they are to society if this regime stays in power? So I think there are many factions within Iran that are very concerned that if this war continues,
Starting point is 00:18:15 the Revolutionary Guards will be able to control all of Iranian society. So right now they control about 50% of the economy. But if this will continue, they might control 100% of the Iranian economy. And it's disastrous for other factions within Iran who want a progressive secular society. And remember that these people have a grudge against America. So in 1979, students in Tehran overran the American embassy and took people hostage. People don't know this, but those students are now.
Starting point is 00:18:51 running the Revenue Guard Corp. Also, their leader, Qasem Soleimani, was killed by the Americans in January 2020, and they wanted revenge against Americans for the longest time. And now it's a perfect opportunity. So there's a lot of bad blood between the Americans and the Referencement of Garcorp. And the Revenue Garcorp see this as an opportunity to destroy the Americans once for all, even at the cost of their own society. So there's a real threat here. That's interesting. So if you know, Have you ever watched The Godfather, the Godfather series? I'm assuming you have.
Starting point is 00:19:25 I have. Okay. So if you know this and you know that if Iran hated us a year ago, if Iran hated us eight years ago when we killed Qasem Soleimani, how much more do they hate us today after taking out the 50 plus leaders that we have in the last, you know, four or five weeks, whatever the, how many days are we at? 43, 44 days? I don't know the exact days.
Starting point is 00:19:47 How much more do they hate us? So don't you think from a pure. a power play standpoint. If you went this far and you killed everyone and you back off, whether you support this happening or not, we're already in it. Of course, we could have had the debate 45 days ago, don't do it. But now we're in it. If you're this far and you get out, didn't you just make Iran even angrier to want to retaliate to U.S. and the rest of the world? Yeah, I mean, I think it's very hard to see off-ramp here because the Iranians will not give up. Even if Americans were to leave, the Iranians would assert control over the GCC, right?
Starting point is 00:20:31 And that's why Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pressuring Trump to finish this war, right? So it's easy to start a war. What do you think is the right move? You're an advisor. You've said a lot of crazy things, which is very interesting. And I like to hear what you're saying because, you know, when everybody is saying the same exact thing, you're not learning leaks. You need to hear what other people are saying. What do you think is the right move to do here right now for both U.S. and the Gulf States?
Starting point is 00:21:03 If I were the Gulf States and in the United States, my advice would be to organize a conference for four countries. The United States, Russia, Iran, and China. Do not include the Europeans. do not include the GCC, do not include Israel. Just these four countries, United States, Russia, China, and Iran, and come to a collective agreement where these four nations agree on a new trade ownership based on the U.S. dollar.
Starting point is 00:21:34 I think all four nations are interested in maintaining the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency because no one else wants that global reserve currency status. Why would you do that if those three, all hates you, and if you're in a meeting with them, China's not necessarily an ally, Russia's not necessarily an ally, Iran's not necessarily an ally, why would I hold this meeting knowing it's three against one? Trump would never host a meeting like that, knowing the leverage isn't on him, right? And so he's got the support of Gulf states. They're on his side. He knows he doesn't with China. He knows he doesn't with Russia. He knows he definitely doesn't with Iran.
Starting point is 00:22:13 why host a meeting like that? I don't see the logic behind that. Feel free to push back. I don't see the logic behind that. Well, I mean, the reality is that America is going to have a hard time holding onto its empire. And Trump has said this many times.
Starting point is 00:22:31 Because America is the World Reserve currency, because America is responsible for protecting the sea lanes, then America is basically screwed by the world, especially the Europeans, who don't have to pay for their own. defense and who can use their savings to fund their lavish welfare and pension system. So it's not in the best interest of America to maintain its empire. If you're an average American, you're paying way too much for this empire.
Starting point is 00:23:02 So why not just retreat back into the Western Hemisphere? Western Hemisphere is completely self-sufficient. It has Canada, as Mexico. Hey, if I'm Trump, I'm like, you know what? Screw Iran. Screw Ukraine. I don't need these places. I'm going to think over Canada and Mexico.
Starting point is 00:23:16 Because Mexico has a surplus of labor, cheap labor, and Canada has infinite resources. A lot of people agree with you on that. A lot of people agree with you. But here's the problem, though. The problem is we're in too deep right now. So this is a good conversation 45 days ago. I'm saying to you, we just killed the top 50 leaders. They're not going to, they're a martyr type community.
Starting point is 00:23:41 Like, you know how you ever go against the company and they're very litigious and you want to play nice? And they're like, no, we're litigious. Sue, sue, sue, sue, sue, sue. You have to fight, fight, you know, fire with fire. So I'm talking today. If you go in the room and say, okay, let's play nice with Iran, they're like, you're out of your flipping mind. And if we say, hey, Iran says, we want to play nice. You're out of your own.
Starting point is 00:24:01 And we know Russia and China are going to side with them. I don't know if that strategy works today. I do know. Do you think Trump has a ton of leverage over NATO right now? Do you think the leverage shares over NATO? Look, you can make the argument that Trump is not just at war with Iran. Trump is ultimately at war of the globalists, right? The state of London, Wall Street, global finance.
Starting point is 00:24:23 Yes. Right? So NATO represents the globalist, and Trump hates NATO and NATO hates Trump. I think Trump has been trying very hard to come to an agreement with Putin for the longest time. They have that Anger-Irish-A-Meting. And what happened afterwards? it's well, NATO and Ukraine are continued to attack Russia. There was that drone assassination attempt against Putin.
Starting point is 00:24:48 The Ukrainians have blown up 40% of Russia's oil exports most recently. So there's a lot of bad blood between Ukraine and Russia, between the globalists and Trump. So if you're Trump, right, who's your enemy? Is your enemy Iran, Russia and China, or is your enemy Iran, Russia and China, or is your enemy NATO and the globalist. Well, he's constantly complimentary of his relationship with G and Putin. If you ever notice when he speaks his luck, you know,
Starting point is 00:25:22 I'd rather be friendly than not friendly. We had a good talk. We're going to go visit back in May. We have some scheduling conflict. We're going to go back. I had a good talk with Putin. Had a good talk with G. So he knows how to speak to these power players and have them under control.
Starting point is 00:25:37 It looks like, you know, that night when he was given a speech, the 23-minute speech, which 9 p.m., I think this was last week, I thought he was going to say something radical like we're leaving NATO. I thought he was going to say the Gulf has announced they're funding the war. I thought he was going to make some kind of a big announcement like that. I don't think there was any big announcement there. But to me, if you had an easier way to get rid of IRGC, question for you, is the world a better place with IRGC no longer being in power? being replaced by some sort of a democracy? Look, I completely agree with you in that the great fear is that Iran becomes much more extremist and much more theoretical, theocratic than it is now.
Starting point is 00:26:21 The Ayatran Khomeh Khamene was considered a pretty moderate individual. His son is not considered moderate, and also he's considered incompetent. And so the people around him will be able to control him. We can expect like the most hardline elements in Iran society will emerge triumphant from this war if this war continues. So again, my best advice is for these four countries to sit down together, see Putin and Trump will agree to pressure together Iran to come to a settlement. Listen, at the end of the day, Russia is supporting Iran. If Russia were to support, sorry, if Russia were to post support, it would be very hard. part for Iran to continue with this war effort.
Starting point is 00:27:06 That I agree. So Putin has a lot of leverage over Iran, right? And that's what I'm saying. You need these four countries sit down together to come to an agreement. If Trump were trying to negotiate with Iran directly, you would get nowhere. But if China and Russia entered the negotiations and they agreed on a mutually beneficial global trade relationship, then I think you can get somewhere. And Trump would, I think, excel in such negotiations.
Starting point is 00:27:32 Yeah. Maybe the meeting is a better meeting if it's Russia, China, and U.S. and not involving Iran on phase one, just to kind of get the pulse there. Because the leverage, you're right, because Russia's, they kind of help each other, right? Because they were selling the cheap drones, the Shaheeds. I don't know what they're called Shavids or Shaheeds to Russia. And Russia was buying it from them back and forth because Iran makes some of the best small drones similar to Ukraine. Shahid, yeah, the drones that they make, the loud ones.
Starting point is 00:28:02 very effective in a war like this. Okay, so that's interesting to see what happens there. But you do agree that the level of extremism that IRGC has, if there is a way to get rid of that regime and be more of a democracy, the world would be a safer place with them being gone. You would agree with that. Yeah, no, I would agree that it is not good. It is not the best interest of Iran to be,
Starting point is 00:28:32 to be a theocracy. I think these are Persian people. These are the most, you know, enlightened people with a long history. They want to be Persian. And so I think that what emerges after this war is a more vibrant Persian nationalism as a counter to Shia theocracy. So you would want to see the religious, you know, Ruholah, the Khomeini's, all that to be gone. And it's just ran by a government, not a theocratic type of a government. You'd like to see that happen. Do you think there's a safe landing where we can get there? Do you think there's a possibility where we can get there? Given what's happened so far, and given that Trump seems intent on attacking Iran's critical
Starting point is 00:29:16 civilian infrastructure, I think this is all, this is only, this will only embolden and empower the most extreme religious elements in Iranian society, because these are the ones who are willing to die for what they believe in. Yeah, I live with them. I live there for almost 11 years, so I witnessed what they're like, and the level of radicalism that they have is a whole different story. Let me ask you a couple other questions about China since you're in Beijing right now. There's this data that's going around when China went to the one-child policy that maybe the population isn't as big as they claim it is. I'm sure you've seen this. Where the numbers are going around Oh, you know, we're at 1.4 billion.
Starting point is 00:30:00 We're at 1.3 billion. And there's like, no, not necessarily. You may be at 6, 7. One lady said 400 million. Mathematically, it's impossible to be at 400 million. But some of the numbers could say 8, 900 million. What is your estimation of what China's population is today? Look, I live in Beijing.
Starting point is 00:30:18 I visited China. There are a lot of people in China. I mean, just right the subway. It's packed every single day, just walk the streets. They're packed all the time. You know, and I travel a lot. There are a lot of people in China. I can't tell you what the exact statistics are.
Starting point is 00:30:34 There's probably some overcounting because local governments tend to lie. Because obviously, like, the more you say you have, the more government subsidies you can get. So I imagine there's some population inflation, but I believe it's silver billion people. The issue in China is not actually population count. The problem in China is twofold in that you have a rapidly aging population. You have young people who refuse to have kids. I think it's possible in five years' time. China has the lowest fertility rate in the world.
Starting point is 00:31:05 Right now, it's South Korea at 0.8. China's about one. But I can easily see China overtaking South Korea in like five years' time. So that's the real issue facing China. China still has a lot of people. But the demographic curve is going to be a huge issue for China, especially as the population ages. Why would they lie? How does it benefit them to lie about the population? Is there a benefit? Like if, because why would they, who cares if you're at 800 million or if you had 1.3 billion?
Starting point is 00:31:37 Right. The issue in China is that local governments tend to lie all the time because a lot of their promotions depend on the performance locally, right? So it's in their best interest to inflate just not population statistics, but also economic performance. So I, so, so does Xi incentivize local governments to lie? Is it, is it more, hey, we got a safe face for the world. The world cannot see that we're a declining country. What is the, who is incentivizing who to lie with the data? Right. So China doesn't really care much about the world, but China,
Starting point is 00:32:23 isn't in close insular bureaucracy. So local limits are lying in order to get more funding from the central government, right? So obviously if you have more children, you can get more healthcare subsidies, more education subsidies from the federal government, especially if you're a poor province. So that's the logic of lying.
Starting point is 00:32:43 And this happens, this is a very common practice in China, where if you are in Beijing, you just have to assume that all the information you're getting from local areas are just influx related information. Got it. Okay. But you don't think there's a reason.
Starting point is 00:32:58 There's a good or bad thing for the world if all of a sudden we got the right data that the population isn't $1.3 billion. It's really only $8,900 million. Would that be an embarrassing moment for China? Would she see that as an embarrassing moment? Or no, it wouldn't be a big deal? You know, there is concern in the central government. And the reason why is that China,
Starting point is 00:33:23 China is very much a metric-based side. It's very utitarian, right? So it's very focused on economic growth. And what drives economic growth is population growth. So there's a real concern that as the population declines over time, Chinese economy will stagnate. But personally, I think that this may be in a long-term, a good thing for China, because having over 1 billion people is not necessarily a good thing.
Starting point is 00:33:46 What it has led to ultimately is massive exploitation over the people. Because when you have like too many people, It's like free energy, right? So all you have to do is basically exploit them, and that's what runs your economy. But because you're exploiting people, that hampers innovation, that hampers political development. So I think if China were to face a population crisis, this in the long term would be good for China's society and civilization in the long term. Yeah, you kind of talk about the Tang Ping movement, right? The line flat, I think they call it, where young kids are kind of like screwed.
Starting point is 00:34:22 there's no reason for me to give my best. So I'm going to be a minimalist. I'm going to do this. I'm going to do that. How are they countering that where kids are seeing, there's no reason for me to do 9-96, right, work 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. I don't want to do it.
Starting point is 00:34:36 Who cares about this? How are they fighting against that? So in the 1980s, China was embarking on economic reform. And there was a real concern among party elders, like people who went through the, revolution that brought the Communist Party into power in 1949. There's a real concern that capitalism would degrade and pollute civilization, Chinese civilization. They call it spiritual pollution in 1980s. And this was a huge concern in 1980s. And it turns out this was correct. Because free market reform,
Starting point is 00:35:13 while political reform, has led to a very utilitarian society where it's basically get rich or die trying. And so what this has led to is massive corruption, massive inequality, massive debt in China. And this has led to tremendous apathy among young people because there's actually no chance for a young person to get ahead. If you started a business, if you bought a million dollars and you started a business, I guarantee you, no matter what business you started, you lose all your money because it's a rig game. And that's why people are opting out. And because of spiritual pollution, because there's really no ideology. There's really no sense of nationalism in China. There's really no motivated factor for people in China.
Starting point is 00:36:00 Before, it was just like make money. And that's a point of view of existence. Before, during the Cultural Revolution, it was about serving the people, contributing to the Motherland, building a socialist paradise. You and I can disagree about that. But regardless, during the Cultural Revolution,
Starting point is 00:36:18 people were motivated to make, to make the self-sequence necessary in order to build a better China. And now people are changing the utitarian. They're indifferent. They're apathetic. And that's why they're like, you know what? Screw this. I'm just to sit home all day.
Starting point is 00:36:32 And who pays them, though? Who pays them? Like, is their entitlement programs? Are they able to stay home all day? What is the system for me to stay home all day? A very common practice is for young people to go work as nurses or maids for their retired parents. Their parents collect a very nice pension. Chinese are very frugal. You know, during COVID, when everyone was locked in their apartments for four years, they ate rice and vegetables all those four
Starting point is 00:37:01 years. So Chinese have a lot of money saved up. They have saved up 40% of their income, which is the highest in the world. Yep. So I mean, Chinese can just get by on like white rice for the next 40 years. Yeah. And the idea is they don't they don't invest much in the stock market. They don't believe in the market, but they do believe in the real estate side, even though the real estate has taken a bit of a hit. But you've always learned the discipline, the frugality part of folks from China. Let me ask another question in regards to, you know, the life flat, I'm going more on the business side with Jack Ma. You know, in America, everybody knows Jack Ma. They think about Jack Ma. They think about his sit down with Elon Musk, the good exchange that they had
Starting point is 00:37:44 where Elon kind of like, you're out of your mind. AI is going to take over. Jack's like, no, it's not. And then Jack made some comments. I'm sure you remember when he gave a... Yes. Not that strong of a critical comment, but probably the CCP didn't like it. And then all of a sudden, Jack Ma disappeared. Here's a guy at the time. I don't know what he was worth.
Starting point is 00:38:02 $50 billion, give or take. He's a very wealthy man. He disappeared. What is your impression of what happened to him? Because no one's talking about Jack Ma anymore. Right. So when President Seek came in power, There's a real concern among Chinese economists that the economy was overheated,
Starting point is 00:38:22 meaning, to put it very bluntly, there's too much corruption in the system. There was too much fraud. There was too much speculation. And so it was really about how to make a more productive economy. So there are too many Chinese people who were engaged in real estate speculation. And that's what it was causing the real estate bubble. And you can't really have that as an economy. You want people to actually work hard, start a business.
Starting point is 00:38:47 and save their money and make proper investments. But everyone was just pouring the money into real estate scams. These entrepreneurs, these billionaires, were basically creating financial Ponzi schemes. And so there's a commitment among Chinese regulators to crackdown. And this is what led to the crackdown on Jack Ma. Because Jack Ma pushed back against central authority. And you can't do that in China. You can't question the authority.
Starting point is 00:39:16 the authority of the government. And Jack Ma, you know, he was the richest man in China. He was the most popular man in China at that time. And he thought that he could change the system. And he found out that, unfortunately, you cannot. Got. And what is the difference between him and the other fellow, Jimmy? I'm trying to get his name right, his last name right.
Starting point is 00:39:39 Is it Jimmy Lay? Jimmy Lay. Do you remember the Jimmy Lay story? Right. So these are two different societies. These are two different political systems. Hong Kong is considered like a quasi-sovereign part of China. Is that kind of like the equivalent of like a Puerto Rico in America?
Starting point is 00:39:58 Exactly, exactly. And I mean, Jimmy Lay is an outspoken critic of the Communist Party. He is very pro-democracy, but he probably pushed too many buttons. He probably crossed too many red lines. So I think what led to his arrest was the fact that you had protests in Hong Kong about a few years ago that called for democracy. And this was a red line for the Congress Party in Beijing. And so he ordered a crackdown. And vocal opponents of the government were arrested or forced into exile.
Starting point is 00:40:40 Jimmy Lai had the option of seeking exile. But he believes in democracy, and so he chose to be a martyr. And so now he's in prison. Who is he in China to America? Like, is there a comparison you can't? Because this is a guy that was a billionaire. In 2020, he was pushing democracy. Then I think China passed a law that, you know, there are certain things you couldn't do in June of 2020.
Starting point is 00:41:08 June of 2021. I could get some of the dates off. I think it's June 30 of 2020. that once the new national security law was passed, 11 days later, he got convicted, and then he went away for 20 years. And this is a guy that owned Apple Daily, newspaper brand, that played a big role in the 2014 umbrella movement, the 2019 Hong Kong protest. So a pretty heavy guy.
Starting point is 00:41:30 But to the average person in America that doesn't know who Jimmy Lay is, how would you say Jimmy Lay is to China, what XYZ is to America? Well, I mean, America has freedom of speech. America respects its business people. America respects its entrepreneurs. So it's very hard for me to find an analogy who is American. But you do have Russian people, you know, these billionaires who ran foul of the Putin regime. And so they were put in prison and then they died in prison. So that's what happens in the societies, Russia and China, when you try to defy the government. that there is a red line in our society,
Starting point is 00:42:13 and that is you cannot challenge the ultimate authority of the government. How much interest do you think there is in China of wanting to be a democracy? Because you know you guys got, you're a one party, right? One political party. You don't have a lot of choice. This is what we're doing. It's just, hey, who do you want? We're not changing this.
Starting point is 00:42:30 It's not like you have a lot of say. How much interest do you think there actually is in saying, you know what? Why not? Why don't we go try to have a democracy in China? So I've been in China for 25 years and I can tell you that there is almost no interest in democracy in China. Because for democracy to exist in China, for democracy to happen in China, you would need to have people who respected human rights, individual liberty, who had empathy, who believed in rule of law. And the reality is that in China, the system is set up so that the ultimate objective is to become a bureaucrat. That's what all Chinese people aspire to.
Starting point is 00:43:21 Or aspirationally, meaning coming up, you want to be a bureaucrat one day. Exactly. And the higher you climb the bureaucracy, the better, because traditionally, China has an empire. And the way you survive an empire is to become a civil servant. And that's why Chinese work so hard in school, because they want to pass that servant. civil service examination to become a bureaucrat so then they can provide guarantees and protection to their family. How long did you live in Canada and the U.S.? So I was born in China. Okay. And then when I was six, we immigrated to Toronto, Canada, where I grew up. I went to high school there. I did five years of
Starting point is 00:44:00 high school because, you know, in Canada, we're slower than Americans. You guys can finish high school in four years. We need about five years. Yep. And then after America, after that, I was, you know, went to Yale for college. I spent four years there. And then I came to China and I've been in China ever since, ever since 1999. So how many years did you live in U.S.? Well, four years? Okay. So if you were to say the dream for a kid in Canada, when he grows up, he wants to be A, the dream for an American when he grows up, he wants to be A, and you already said it what China is, right? When you grow up, you want to be a bureaucrat. What is your impression of what China is, Canada is, U.S. is? Well, in Canada, everyone wants to be a hockey player. When I grew up,
Starting point is 00:44:41 I didn't play hockey, but I wanted to be a hockey player. I wanted to play for the NHL. Yep. I mean, like, I could, I can't even skate, okay, but I wanted to be a hockey player. In America, I think you want to be an entrepreneur. You want to start your own business, such as yourself, and you want to make it and be independent. You know, be free of government control. And you want to be able to speak your mind.
Starting point is 00:45:02 And in China, as I mentioned, you want to be a bureaucrat. What do you like about each country? Because you chose to go back to China. And if I'm not mistaken, what happened with the PBS documentary that you tried to do, that they kicked you out, and then eventually they let you come back in in 03? I don't know what the timeline is there, you know, because you have a choice to be in Canada, the U.S. or China, but you chose China. So maybe walk through what happened when they kicked you out and then why you chose to go back to China.
Starting point is 00:45:31 So I came to China to teach English, and eventually I became interested in journalism, and I was hired to do freelance journalism. I got a contract from PBS to do a documentary on China's WTO entry, and this required filming a worker protest. And there were quite a few worker protests during this time, because there was a restructuring of state-owned enterprises. And while I was filming a worker protest, I was arrested by planes-closed policemen.
Starting point is 00:46:02 I was put into a car, and then I was sent to a hotel for 48 hours hours where they interrogated me. And I didn't get much sleep. I ultimately sent a confession that I was working in China illegally as a journalist. So to work in China as a journalist, you need a journalist visa. And I was not, I didn't have a journalist visa. And so they deported me, but they didn't charge me so I could at any time return to China. And so eventually I chose to return to China because at that time, I had Chinese language skills, I had some journalism experience, and so they were more opportunities for me in China
Starting point is 00:46:41 than they were in the United States and in Canada. So the question is, what do I see the particular strings of each country are? Well, Canada, you know, it's a very stable society. People there are very nice, perhaps too nice. It's almost like they're on Valium every single day. You've been to Canada. I have many times.
Starting point is 00:47:05 Yeah, right. You know, Americans are the most creative people in the world, very open, very generous. If you want to work hard and you have talent, you will make it in America. And that's not true for anywhere else in the world. You know, it doesn't matter how much talent you have in China. No one cares. All that matters is how powerful your family is. And that's true for most of the world.
Starting point is 00:47:26 It's not just unique to China. I would say for most of the world, what matters is family connections, family background. as opposed to hard work and talent. So I deeply admire Americans, and I have tremendous respect for American society and culture. China at that time was an open canvas. It seemed promising. It at that time could go in many different directions.
Starting point is 00:47:51 And so I was young, and I was really curious, and I felt that I could learn a lot more in China and experience much more interesting opportunities in China than I couldn't. anywhere else. Right. And so... Because you're very curious.
Starting point is 00:48:05 You're very talented. You know, you ask, you're very good communicator. I mean, these are all great qualities to be here in the States. Why choose to use those talents in China? So my... So I was in the United States for college. And when I was at Yale, I found that there wasn't as much openness and freedom to curiosity as I imagined.
Starting point is 00:48:31 So Americans are extremely entrepreneurial. They're very good at business. But I didn't feel as though America was going to change a lot in 10, 20 years' time. And I felt that I wanted to experience a society in flux in change. I thought America was much too stable.
Starting point is 00:48:51 You know, I could have easily gone to law school and become a very wealthy lawyer or maybe even gone and become a professor, right? There were lots of these career paths open to me because I had a Yale education, but I knew exactly what I would be like in 50 years' time or 60 years' time because I still look at my professors and I know how they live their lives. I have friends who are lawyers and I know how they live their lives. And I wanted to experience a world in which the world was unpredictable.
Starting point is 00:49:19 And that was China. Like when I came to China, I knew China was going to change a lot in 20, 30 years' time. And so during this time of massive change, this would offer me opportunities to do things I could really do in the United States. Got it. So that was the opportunity to go over there. And by the way, your content that you create in China, that you upload on YouTube, do you also upload it on the channels in China or is it mainly for the content in U.S.? So I've very strict policy of not engaging in Chinese social media. do not have a Chinese social media account. Chinese reporters have reached out to have interviews with me and I've said no. Chinese people have reached out to me and said they want to work with me and I've said no. And the reason why is that I understand how Chinese system works. And when you
Starting point is 00:50:09 say they reached out, who reached out to you, like the bigger platforms or media companies or all the way from the top of the CCP? Well, Tijuana professors. Professors at the very elite universities in China, Tijuana University. And I don't want to talk to these people. And I don't want to talk to these people because they represent the government. And I don't want to put myself in position where I'm compromised and have to become a propaganda, a mouthpiece for the government. And so my main priority is to maintain my independence, my freedom, because I operate in a gray zone in China where I'm not a Chinese citizen, so I'm not bound by Chinese surveillance laws. And I make content for Westerners. And so I have a lot more.
Starting point is 00:50:54 freedom to comment about Western society than say if I were in Washington society, right? So Canada has become very authoritarian society. They, if I said certain things that I said in Canada, then it's possible that I get visited by the police. And that would not be true for Europe. It wouldn't be true for the United States, but there would be some other issues as well. Yeah, that's interesting. So have they ever knocked on your door and said, hey, you cross on Elijing, pumped the brakes,
Starting point is 00:51:22 that's too much, relax. or no, they leave you alone, nobody's knocked on your door? I work at a school. I'm employed by the school. They have legal responsibility for me. And there was one time when I wrote a sub-sac essay that mentioned China, and I was given a call by the school leadership and told to pull it down. I'm not at liberty to tell you what the content was, but I will tell you that I'm being monitored very heavily. I can only imagine that. I can only imagine that. Do you feel sense? safe for yourself in China long term? I do not plan on staying in China long term.
Starting point is 00:51:59 Okay. I figure. Because, and I'll tell you why. Because right now, China is very interesting in soft power. And right now, I have a lot of self power. I have a lot of influence overseas. And so they want to co-op me. They want to compromise me and turn me into a weapon
Starting point is 00:52:13 that they can use to promote their agenda overseas. I don't want to do that. The longer you stay, the more people are going to think that you are somebody that's representing the CCP, that you're working with the government. Just so, because I know you, the criticism, the moment you went viral, I'm like, okay, let's see what happens the next two weeks because they're going to come for his throat.
Starting point is 00:52:32 It happens every single time, and then we all move on with the filtering process. You're not really a professor. Are you a spy? Are you tied to the government? Are you tied to this? If all of a sudden you leave and you go to Singapore or Dubai or a different place or maybe not even Dubai, but you know a couple places that you can go to speak, then that means you truly are a citizen.
Starting point is 00:52:53 of the world that your concern is, here's what I think about, here's what I want to talk about, do whatever you want with this information. And I'm sure your ad sense is picking up anyways with YouTube, which allows you to drop your job as a teacher to go live anywhere. That's the beautiful thing about YouTube. So you kind of have a little bit of freedom to be able to do that. And I love to see you continue doing this because, you know, you're, again, you say some crazy things, but that's good. We need to kind of think about some of the crazy things that can possibly happen. And then let's hash it out. Let's debate it out. Now let's see what comes out of it. Another question for you.
Starting point is 00:53:25 I love what you said. In Canada, everybody wants to be a hockey player. In U.S. people want to be an entrepreneur. In China, they want to be a bureaucrat. What do you think kids want to be in Iran? What's the dream in Iran today under this regime? I know you're not there. I'm not there, but what do you think?
Starting point is 00:53:42 Well, I mean, I've never been to Iran. It depends where you are in Iran, right? So the cities are very different from the rural areas. But I think that given what's been happening in this war, I think there are a lot of young children who fantasize and they grow up and they want to fight the Americans. So I feel as though this war, given the fact on the first day, the Americans struck a school in southern Iran
Starting point is 00:54:11 that killed 168 schoolgirls, and they killed an 86-year-old man with prostate cancer. I feel as though there were. a lot of young people who want to go to war with America right now. Yeah, and I agree. I agree with, you know, I'm going to be a hero one day. You're seeing in some videos with mothers celebrating that their sons gave their lives. It's like, my son's a hero, he did the right thing.
Starting point is 00:54:36 It's a very different way of thinking about what happens there. You know, very different way of thinking about. Let's talk about COVID. You know, COVID is the time when I started talking about politics. Up until COVID had no desire to talk politics. All I did was business, and I would do my whiteboards. You know how you do your whiteboards? I would do my whiteboards, except nowadays we can do with nice little markers where our hands don't get dirty.
Starting point is 00:54:59 I did it at the getaways back in the days where I would get paint all over my suit and ties, and it was a hot mess. But during COVID, you know, story comes out. It came out from the Wuhan lab. No, it came from the wet market. No, China had nothing to do with it. Yes, China had to do it. Nancy Pelosi goes to China town. Stop being so racist.
Starting point is 00:55:21 Trump's like, what do you tell about? It came from China. What does China say about COVID with their position? Because when the state media is telling their stories, and I'm living in Iran, and they're saying, let me tell you, U.S. is the devil, and U.S. is this, and death upon America and all this other stuff. And, you know, China's a pretty controlled environment,
Starting point is 00:55:41 kind of like what you talked about earlier. How does China state media control the narrative of what really happened with COVID? Okay, so unfortunately, COVID has been memory hold in China. So no one talks about it. It was a traumatic three or four years for Chinese society. And people have just basically just forgotten about the experience. No one even mentions COVID anymore.
Starting point is 00:56:05 People still get COVID, but no one mentions COVID anymore. So all this has been memory hold, and people would rather just move on with the lives because there's absolutely no point in talking about it. But the Chinese government have said on multiple occasions, that COVID started off as the American bioweapon. And so that's what the Chinese believe, that COVID was American bioweapon.
Starting point is 00:56:28 It was leaked into China in order to hurt Chinese society. And there are a lot of elite, and there are a lot of elite Chinese who I talk to, who believe the same thing. So they believe it was a bio weapon released from U.S. in China. That's the narrative they say. And is it- That's what they believe.
Starting point is 00:56:46 And is it tied to Fauci, the gain of function? Is that kind of how they spin it? Or what's their method of connecting the dots? So I'll tell you what I believe happened. Okay. And so I believe that this was an American buyer weapon funded by 20 Fauci.
Starting point is 00:57:07 Obama had put a moratorium, a ban on gain of function research. And so Fauci subcontracted, Gina Function Research to the Wuhan Lab, which was actually a military installation. And I don't know it was accidental or deliberate, but it got released into Wuhan. And when it did get released into Wuhan, the early reporting was that this was killing a lot of people. It was actually burning your lungs. It was like a furnace. Your lungs became a furnace.
Starting point is 00:57:40 So it was pretty deadly. And they locked down the city too late. and about a third of people, like, you know, escaped into other cities as well as border flights for Europe. And this spread around the world very quickly. So I think that's what happened. But Chinese, what they believe is that this was a American by weapon designed to hurt the Chinese economy. And that's a story. But they downplay China's role in it.
Starting point is 00:58:11 Yeah, they downplay China's role in it. And culturally is China a culture where if the government says that, don't question it. You don't have to write to question it. Just buy it. This is what happened. Don't come back and question us because of freedom of speech. Chinese people know where the political red lines are.
Starting point is 00:58:31 And they know how the political winds are shifting. And so there's really no questioning of the government. This episode is brought to you by Tell Us Online Security. Tax season is the worst. You mean hack season? Sorry, what? Yeah, cybercriminals love tax forms. But I've got TELUS online security.
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Starting point is 00:59:13 I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my head of office has a forever setting. An IG Private Wealth Advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivatewealth.com. an advantage for the enemy to be able to see in America where in America we bash each other and we're going at it and everything's being exposed from congressman on the left and the right and
Starting point is 00:59:54 nobody in the world can see what's going on with China because no one can bring up anything. God forbid if you do something could happen. I disagree. I think like if you want a healthy, creative, resident society, you need free and open debate. The best thing about America is the First Amendment. The best thing is that anyone can criticize the president. And there's rigorous debate right now over this Iran war. And this allows for America to pivot and to be resilient and to discover its witnesses and to improve on its vulnerabilities. China has been China for the past 5,000 years. This is not a good thing. Yeah, no, I'm with you. It is if a person that thinks they can have, that kind of a chokehold on their people,
Starting point is 01:00:42 for a long time and see the enemy as debating each other, a lot of information comes in. But if social media apps are not available in China, right? There is no Facebook. There is no YouTube. There is no X. There is no, nothing like that is available in China. There are Chinese equivalents.
Starting point is 01:00:57 But yes, these Western social media platforms are banned in China. Are there any, like, if you and I go to a dinner and, you know, if you live in California at the peak of COVID, you have to be very careful if you were Trump support, a lot of people would say, but there were parties you would go to to houses like, hey, me too, hey, me too, but God, if you wore MAGA hat in 2017 in California, go walk through the mall and see what happens to you. It's a very different climate than today, right? Are there small pockets of people in China, small communities that are growing, that they're criticizing the government, or none of that exists?
Starting point is 01:01:35 None that exists in China. Okay, all right, and I don't think you agree with that. I think... Well, well, no, I mean, the reason. is that China has developed an AI surveillance state that is the most advanced in the world, right? So China has digital ID and digital currency. Right. And so with that, ever you do online can be monitored, right? And so when you use your mobile phone, it's a, like all your app is on your phone. So the government knows exactly where you go. Yeah. What you buy. We have it with. And from that, from this data, they can do a
Starting point is 01:02:09 microanalysis of your political leanings and then influence you in a certain way. So China has to help the first AI surveillance state. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah, you know, you just reminded me of a story. When I made a handful of videos criticizing China and I brought a General Spalding who went very hardcore at China and got millions of views all over the place
Starting point is 01:02:31 and he was revealing some things about China. So it was about a six months of going after China pretty hardcore. One day I get an email from a PR from saying somebody from China wants to invite you to an event. It's a charity event. I said, okay. So let's do the Zoom. So I got on the call. It's me, Mario, another guy named Gerard, and we get on the Zoom.
Starting point is 01:02:52 And we said, so what's the outcome? They want to pay you $600,000. I have this email till today, documented. They want to pay you $600,000, but they want you to give a $300,000 check to X, Y, Z charity. So you get to keep $300,000. but you give the $300,000 to the charity, will take care of your hotel, food, flight, everything, don't worry about it,
Starting point is 01:03:13 and we'll give you $300,000. Of course, my answer was no, but why would China do something like that? Why would they want somebody like me to come in to get $600,000 and donate $300,000 to charity? Right, so the Chinese approach to soft power is co-opting elites, right? So in China, the elites have all the power,
Starting point is 01:03:37 the people have no power. And they assume that's just how the power works. That's how the world works. So if I'm going to spend money on soft power, that basically means I bribe influential media elite, such as yourself, such as Tom Friedman. So Tom Freeman has visited China quite a lot, and he said very nice things about China.
Starting point is 01:03:57 And quite honestly, this works, right? Because if you come over to China, they treat you very well. It's great food. The people are very friendly. They show you the best aspects. of China and you leave a very good feeling in your heart. So Chinese are very good at co-opting individuals,
Starting point is 01:04:15 and they only focus on individuals who have tremendous influence in the world, such as yourself. It's a brilliant strategy. If you're able to succeed with it, and people can come back and being complimentary about it, you know, that's what you want, especially in enemy state. Last question here, with Muslims, and how, what is the position
Starting point is 01:04:37 that Xi Jinping or the Chinese government has towards Muslims, the religion of Islam, of course, on the outside, they have a lot of relationships with a lot of people. But on the inside, we read about the Uyghurs. We read about the treatment of what's happened in Muslims. We read about how some stories of what they think that religion is all about.
Starting point is 01:04:59 What is the sect of Muslims in China and what is the relationship with Islam and the Chinese government? Right. So there were some prominent terrorist attacks where Muslims, Uyghurs, launched knife attacks in train stations, killing dozens of Chinese. And a lot of these Uyghurs came back from wars in the Middle East. So these were radicalized people. And there was real fear among the Chinese government that this radicalization had penetrated Muslim society. So there was a massive crackdown across Muslim society.
Starting point is 01:05:46 But this goes into a much larger trend in China, which is the promotion of ethnic Han civilization. So China has about 55 minorities. The majority, like 90% of people are Han. I'm a Han person. But there are lots of minorities in the borderlands. And it was a policy of the Communist Party in 1949 to be as taught as possible to these minorities, meaning that they were given their own autonomy. Their language was promoted.
Starting point is 01:06:21 There was heavy state subsidies to protect the culture, to protect their language, to promote ethnic minorities in mainstream Chinese society. And recently, there's been a push to promote Han nationalism, which means a clapping down on the rights of ethnic minorities. And the most obvious example is that schools, in many places, are allowed to teach a second language. If your minority, you're only allowed to learn Chinese as opposed to your local dialect.
Starting point is 01:06:55 Interesting. So does that include English, or they teach you English in China? They are trying to reduce the teaching of English as well. but it is much too popular among middle-class Chinese who want to send their kids abroad. But the official policy is to promote Chinese teaching over English teaching. And are there enough, like, you know, the Muslims are fairly, if I'm looking at the population right now, it says 20 to 25 million Muslims live in China, right? And roughly 1.5% to 2%.
Starting point is 01:07:25 I don't know if those numbers are right or not. That's just, you know, chat bringing that number up. and it explains the largest group being the Hui Muslims, ethnically similar to the Han Chinese, which you were kind of talking about right now. What can they do and what can't they do? Because the Muslim religion in America grows because we have the freedom of speech.
Starting point is 01:07:43 You can go out there and be in the streets praying. What can they not do in China? Look, the reality is that the Communist Party prides itself on being atheistic. So it is trying to downplay religious. not just against the Muslims, but also against Christians, against people of all faiths. And they're trying to promote communist ideology above everything else. So you can be religious as long as you accept that communism is the ultimate God,
Starting point is 01:08:19 which means that most people who are religious are not going to accept this, right? Makes sense. Okay. So is there things that you can, do you know you know, you're religious? your limits of what you can and cannot talk about yourself? Like, what can you not talk about? Right. So in China, there are lots of things I cannot talk about. But I'm not on social media. I'm not on Chinese social media. I don't talk to Chinese reporters. So I'm not constrained by this. But because I'm based in China, I also have to watch, I also have to watch what I say overseas, right? So things I can't talk about is the Tibet-Taiwan issues, the Xinjiang issues. I cannot talk about this.
Starting point is 01:09:14 I can name specific individuals in China who hold leadership positions. So you will not hear me talk about or criticize the leadership of China. I'm not allowed to discuss that. I'm not allowed to discuss the limitations of the military. because they are invincible and they are always right. There are lots of things I can't talk about. That is funny because they're always right. I like that because that's like, you know,
Starting point is 01:09:45 something tells me that was a bit of a dig is what it was. I'm trying to see your facial reaction to what you just said to see if it was a dig or if it was what you know you can't talk about. Did I lose you? Yeah, yeah. So the connection isn't great, actually. Okay. Well, we're at the end of it, about to wrap up.
Starting point is 01:10:11 Last thing. Canada, China, U.S., China, U.S., China's buying up a lot of farmland in U.S. and Canada. Why do you think that is? Look, the reality is that if you're a wealthy Chinese person, your dream is to move your assets and your family to America. And right now in America, there are not that many assets that you can, buy and create value. So farmland is just one of these assets where you can store your wealth.
Starting point is 01:10:41 And so this is why a lot of Chinese are buying up real estate. This is what Chinese do. They love buying real estate. It's not just America. It's like everywhere. So it's not any other reason but that. To your impression, it's just they're just buying it for real estate. They're not buying it because they want to control farmland and they want to control
Starting point is 01:10:56 produce and any of that stuff. You're not going there. That's right. Look, look, I'm 100 percent confident that this is individual. Chinese behavior where they're trying to store their wealth. Look, the reality is that if you leave your wealth in China, there's no legal protection. They can take it take away at any time. So you want to move it overseas.
Starting point is 01:11:20 And American farmland just happens to be a pretty good investment. Do you have any travel plan to come to the States? Are we going to see you in the States next 30, 60, 90 days? Probably not. Probably not. I was progressing. Given how much, yeah. Look, look, look, I mean, I would love to visit the United States.
Starting point is 01:11:42 I would love to meet you in person. There's quite a few people who have asked me to visit to be on a show. Sure. But I'm pretty sure if I go to the United States, I'm going to get a punch in the face at some point. I think if you're, you know, giving your perspectives, like today's interview, very fair. I want the world to watch this.
Starting point is 01:12:00 I thought this was a very good conversation. that some may say it could have been antagonistic, but I actually was looking forward to having the exact conversation you and I just had here together. I'll give you the final thoughts before we wrap up. Is there anything else you want to share with the audience before we wrap up?
Starting point is 01:12:18 Yeah, so I think these next few days will be crucial for the world. I pray to God, even though I'm not religious, that we come to a peace settlement that Trump tackles again, and Iran offers a settlement that the Americans can agree on. I think that the settlement that the Iranians have offered so far, which is to share control of the struggle of the struggle of who moves,
Starting point is 01:12:45 has been very fair. And it's quite honestly one of the most generous offers that the Americans will get from the Iranians so far. So I pray to God that we come to a settlement over the next few days. But it's also possible these few days, we'll see a major escalation, where they're going to be a major escalation, where the Americans are targeting critical civilian infrastructure in Iran, which will force Iran to go into total war and respond forcefully against the GCC,
Starting point is 01:13:12 in which case it's possible that we lose access to 20% of the world's energy, and we lose 30% of the world's fertilizer. And this means that the entire world is going to be drawn into this war, and this means that every person will be affected. Well, appreciate that perspective. Thank you for making the time to get on. I really enjoy talking to and looking forward to doing it again. Absolutely.
Starting point is 01:13:39 Absolutely. I don't remember any time. It's a great conversation. Thank you so much. Anytime. God bless. Take care. Bye-bye.
Starting point is 01:13:44 Okay. Bye-bye.

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